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It's Official - Biggest Nino Ever - Killer La Nina to Follow
This morning NOAA released its data for the Pacific Ocean temperatures for the week of November 9th. We hit a record - the current El Nino is the strongest in recorded history.
Before 2015 the largest recorded weekly reading of El Nino occurred during the week of November 26 in 1997. We passed that milestone last week. The data from 1997 - The El Nino index set a record of 2.8: (Link to data)
As of last week the Pacific Ocean in region 3.4 (where El Nino is measured) hit a new record of 3.0: (Link)
So another weather record has been set. What does it mean? In the very short term it means that there will be some hellacious weather in the US Pacific West/Texas in the next 90 days. It also means there will be a drought in Australia and Indonesia. Other parts of the globe will feel the consequences of the mega Nino.
However, there is another consequence of this year's El Nino that is virtually a sure thing to happen within the next half year. A very rapid change in El Nino water temperatures will follow - in nine months we will have gone 180 degrees in the opposite direction and we will be dealing with a very strong La Nina.
The following plots the changes from El Nino (red) to La Nina (blue). Note the rapid change that occurred from November of 1997 to the fall of 1998. A very big La Nina followed the record El Nino:
The numbers:
A chart of the 1998 event:
This chart from today's NOAA report is a synopsis of the computer forecasts for the for the collapsing El Nino and soon-to-be La Nina.
What will the coming La Nina bring us? If history is the gauge, then we should be preparing for a record hurricane season in the summer/fall of 2016, and a return to the crushing droughts in the Pacific West. This is what NOAA reports for the hurricane season of 1998:
In March of 2015 the Australian Meteorology department issued its first warning that a big El Nino was in our future. I wrote about it, and in the blog I made some predictions/recommendations of what it meant. Many of those things have now proven correct (Link). So I'll go out on a limb with some deep thoughts on the coming La Nina:
- If you live anywhere along the US coast from Virginia all the way to Texas (especially Florida) make some preparations.
-If you're thinking of putting your house up on stilts to avoid flood damage, do it now. By March of 2016 the "Coming La Nina" story will be in the media - too late to hire the construction crews to raise the house.
-To the extent possible increase flood and wind insurance protection.
-Short the stocks of those insurance companies that have large risk exposure to the US east coast.
-If you're thinking of buying that dream house on the ocean in the Sunbelt, wait a year - there will be some bargains. If you're a seller - call the broker soon....
The La Nina will result in a resumption of drought conditions in the West. So consider:
-Enjoy the West Coast skiing this year - the next two years will suck.
-Don't buy a vegetable farm (or heaven forbid a grape grower) in California just yet.
-Pot growers in Cali (huge biz) are going to get squeezed - these growers use a ton of water.
I wonder about Phoenix and Las Vegas (more than SF or LA). These cities are highly dependent on the Colorado River/Lake Mead. In a year the headline will be; "Drought Returns - Lake Mead Level Resumes Drop". What might be the implications of that? I can't think of anything to be 'long' of in that scenario - including casinos.....
There is even a political side to this. Assume that we get the La Nina, and we have an over-sized hurricane season that brings with it significant damage. This would happen 30-60 days before the election. Would it make a difference at the ballot box? The Press reaction to a big storm would be:
"Super Storm Lolita - More Evidence of Climate Change!"
And what are the positions of some of the candidates?
Rubio:
“We're not going to make America a harder place to create jobs in order to pursue policies that will do absolutely nothing, nothing to change our climate.”
Trump:
"So I am not a believer, and I will, unless somebody can prove something to me, I believe there’s weather."
Carson: (WTF?)
“I believe that God gave the creatures he made the ability to adapt to their environment. Because he’s very smart and he didn’t want to start over every 50 years.”
My fictional "Hurricane Lolita" would crash into Del Boca Vista - the worst damage would be to the Republican party.
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In your headline "More Evidence of Climate Change!" I'm not really sure that matters. This debate appears to me to be less about whether the climate changes - its apparently cycled for as long as we can see through the collection of reliable data - and more about what causes the change, and what caused the changes in the past. I'm not sure, and could be totally mistaken on this, that any Republican candidate still running challenges the notion that our climate cycles between extreme temperatures - only what the causes are. I believe the Democrat candidates are all in agreement that the casue is exessive exhaling of Republican voters. Your take Bruce?
Hi Bruce, good to see you posting.
Are you saying you belive in human caused climate change without saying it?
I think the Earth should throw the worst she has at us, considering how much we pollute.
Us little primates aren't going to change solar cycles one bit, but we sure can make a big mess.
ebworthen, "Us little primates aren't going to change solar cycles one bit, but we sure can make a big mess."
By doing things like ejecting atmospheric plasma into space? Richard C. Hoagland discovered something that should be standard fare for every discussion about this -- namely that the island of Tromsø, where the Spiral was most visible, "just so happens" to be directly northwest of a major HAARP facility called EISCAT.
Shake humans off as a dog shakes off fleas.
I think we can expect some localized severe weather patterns caused by expected cyclical recurrence of increased methane releases which will occur over concentrated focal points in NA. These methane concentrations coincide with human activity in concentrated areas and cycle over a 7 to 9 day period. Whether these methane releases will alter weather patterns remains to be seen. The overall pattern can be expected to last from 3 to 5 months, then weather effects will return to normal and more dispersed methane releases over time and focal points.
Climate changers always leave out the huge methane gas plumes that bubble from under the sea bed and that we have no control over and which are much greater than anything humanity or cows can accomplish. The dinosaurs wreaking their revenge?
"TWENTY FIVE years!!!
Actually the NOAA data goes back to 1950, so the data is for 65 years. And I did say "recorded" in the piece."
That is a lie. Look at the title of the piece. "Biggest Nino Ever"
So why say it? Why use the BIG words?
Biggest Nino ever... Killer Nina to follow (maybe)... strongest in recorded history... virtually a sure thing...
Disingenuous.
Your name is mud.
Well New...---... (whatever), the proof will be in print in the not too distant future. Wanna bet on the outcome?
This El Nino is at or near its peak. By December 7 the index will be lower that the 3.0 reported today. By May of 2016 the index will fall to below the El Nino threshold of +0.5. By September it will be below -0.5.
Sincerely,
Mr. Mud
Bruce, you're a former trader, so I trust you to be a pragmatist.
Have you looked into Ben Davidson's (Suspicious 0bserver's) research about weakening magnetosphere being a factor in increasing weather variability due to Earth's increasing susceptibility to Solar and cosmic energy input?
The hypothesis of Hurricanes/earthquakes as Earth-spots is very interesting from an energy balancing point of view.
I would like to posit that based on the evidence presented, the El-nino is the tail, not the dog as far as hurricanes are concerned.
T_P I like the SO channel, but Ben's paw was a big deal at Goldman Sachs. The information can be great, but the intent is probably to obscure in a limited hangout way, something you are not supposed to see. I'm not sure its Ben's theory either.
So yes, Sun cycles drive Earth weather with an emerging geoengineered caveat. A shrinking atmosphers is spooky.
Yup... there is a certain smell about Ben and I have a sneaky suspicion there are big plans for his future.
Still the info is top drawer.
"Proof is coming" means no proof available, and yes, I'll take that bet all day.
No argument there.
I agree.
"“In climate research and modelling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.” The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report (2001), Section 14.2.2.2, page 774"
"There is even a political side to this."
Damn right there is, but it has nothing to do with US elections. What a twit.
Read the text of the Doha meeting as well as the agreements between parties on an international level as it concerns environment.
They're not just trying to take away your guns, they're trying to take your armies!
National sovereignty is a thing of the past if COP21 is a success.
THERE IS EVEN LANGUAGE PREVENTING FUTURE GENERATIONS FROM CHANGING THEIR MINDS AND OPTING OUT LATER ON.
UNPA (of which Trudeau and other former Canadian PMs are members) have it all laid out for you to see:
"The Campaign for the Establishment of a United Nations Parliamentary Assembly is a global network of parliamentarians and non-governmental organizations advocating for citizens' representation at the United Nations. "
NGOs advocating for citizens to un-elected think-tank directed bodies.
"A United Nations Parliamentary Assembly (UNPA) would be the first parliamentary body directly representing the world's citizens in the United Nations. It is envisaged as first practical step towards the long-term goal of a world parliament."
DAMN RIGHT THERE IS A POLITICAL SIDE TO THIS!
In Headline Hooks,it pays to go big.
Too much capitalization (being yelled at) is derogatory.
All I got for ya.
It was meant to be derogatory, but if emphasis (not yelling) bothers you, the ZH home page must render you apoplectic.
That Chrystia Freeland chick and her Ministry for Globalization is giving me the willies...
Bruce - I used to have 5 years in a row, of NOAA Hurricane predictions that they were tying to Global Warming, everyone WRONG! NOAA is good at guessing, not predicting. There are so many variables that go into ocean temperatures, currents and weather. I do not put much stock in NOAA or the local weatherman. Read the sky for short predictions and the trees and animals for longer ones.
Be wary of explosive bursts of fecundity in flora and fauna. No need to spell it out here.
Meaning flying rats of both sea and land varieties?
Interesting that the 'Old Farmers Almanac' concurs somewhat with your analysis - at least regarding a resumption of dry conditions on the West Coast in late 2016.
Snippet here from weather.com regarding this year's El Nino compared to previous ones - interesting...
"Note these are impacts that are typically expected, but they aren't always the rule.
Residents of the western states may remember the flooding that struck California during the strong 1997-98 El Nino. In February 1998, a series of storms caused an estimated $550 million in damage and killed 17 people in California. A total of 35 counties were declared federal disaster areas. This fits into the bucket of the wetter-than-average winter you would typically expect in a moderate or strong El Niño.
Interestingly, during the previous winter there was also major flooding in California and it was even more costly with a total price tag of $1.8 billion, according to Jan Null, a consulting meteorologist in California. However, El Niño was not present that winter and rainfall for the season was near average. The flooding was the result of excessive rainfall that fell in a short time period combined with snowmelt from late December to early January.
The weak El Niño in the winter of 2006-07 provided a totally different story than what we saw in the very strong 1997-98 El Niño winter.
California had its 23rd driest winter season on record when looking at the three-month period from December 2006 to February 2007. In Los Angeles, the entire water year from July 2006 to June 2007 was the driest on record with just 3.21 inches of rainfall.
So, those hoping for drought relief next winter in the Golden State shouldn't immediately draw a conclusion that significant rains are ahead in any El Niño year. The strength of the El Niño can play a role in the outcome. In addition, heavy rainfall can occur with or without El Niño present and that was the case in the winter preceding the strong 1997-1998 El Niño."
The ARkStorm that hit the West in 1862 may have been associated with a bigger El Nino but who can tell? There was a whole lot of water though.
And the last of those 65 years, 2014, was forecasted by many "experts" to be an EL Nino for the record books. And well, let's see, in California, what again were the rainfall totals?
NOAA has no clue what they are doing. Weather is an art, not a science. The scientific process is repeatable. Weather forecasting is not.
Two weeks before a major CLIMATE SUMMIT, NOA announces a record el nino. One must wonder if the numbers are adjusted for *accuracy*, or if there is a political agenda.
According to scientists, we are in the midst of an ice age. That's right -- today is ice age. Oh, but it's an interglacial period, so no contradiction that the mississippi is still liquid.
That's all for now. I'm so skeered that it might rain. I hope they can raise taxes and fix the weather.
The "Old Farmer's Almanac" is published in the fall for the next year. It has equal predictive power as the NOAA 72 hour forecast in near-real time.
I find this chart helpful, as in, we need more CO2, given that plant life dies at atmospheric concentrations of 150 ppm. (Scroll down to "Similarities with Our Present World":
http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Carboniferous_climate.html
Good information there... saved to disk.
It would be interesting if someone modeled CO2 levels today if man-made sources were excluded. Nobody talks about things like that. Just doom/gloom, must stop buring things.
Who needs logic and reasoning when you can just ask an "expert" to make a statement that'll put the goyim into governmental submission...
Here's another interesting fact for y'all to chew on: Higher levels of atmospheric CO2 reverses soil desertification.
really?
can you read?
"in recorded history" was Krasting's claim.
Glad to see you posting again Bruce as I always enjoy your posts regardless of subject. I hope you and yours are doin' allright!
Regards,
Cooter
I echo that sentiment, Bruce.
BTW, you probably realize that both El Nino and La Nina are totally unpredictable. 2014 was supposed to be a giant El Nino, but completely fizzled out about 3 months after the NOAA predictions. And if you can't predict SST you can't predict either weather or climate. Its all stochastic just as expected for a nonlinear dynamical system with multiple feedbacks.
Yes and even less predictable with geoengineering tweaking the knobs.
Let's see some consideration of the ongoing impact of high altitude volcanic particulate in the northern hemisphere, and the plume of warm water in the Pacific from undersea volcanism northeast of Australia. All that we see now can be explained by different combinations of temporary and cyclical factors in nature that influence different regions in different ways. Unfortunately for us all, the fact that the Pacific Northwest is destined for another mild winter means the "climate scientists" and their collectivist leaf-eating disciples will continue to thump their "man made global warming" bibles and demand Carbon Tax "to save the planet."
Theory-induced blindness: a state in which a person accepts a theory and then interprets all contrary data in a manner that supports the theory.
Mr. Kastings theory is this: The western US is in a drought that will last decades. There will be rains this year due to an El Nino? THAT JUST PROVES THAT THERE IS A DROUGHT. Because of...SCIENCE!!! And I have a chart!
Confirmation Bias.
i have lol and say i moved to vegas in the fall of 97 from mnsnota. ha- one of the warmest winters on record.
called my bro to mention it was tyme to hit the outdoor pool and he says, ha it is short sleeve day in snota.
left vegas and have never been back(fall 98)...
Just a few weeks ago we had the strongest storm ever on earth - Patricia. Oh the untold loss of life! What? no one died? huh.
http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-patricia-mexico-c...
http://www.denverpost.com/ci_29012109/mexicos-pacific-coast-braces-monst...
Hey Bruce,
The use of MS Paint to embellish the NOAA charts gives this the look of something really professional and credible.
You should start your own You Tube channel.
Taint Boil to BungHole:
That was funny …..LMAO
NOT the strongest El Nino ever...
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/11/17/is-the-current-el-nino-stronger-th...
But still a biggie!
+100 Excellent.