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Turkey's Trump Card: Erdogan Can Cut Russia's Syrian Supply Line By Closing Bosphorus
On Saturday, Russia unveiled a raft of economic sanctions against Turkey in retaliation for Ankara’s brazen move to shoot down an Su-24 warplane near the Syrian border. Charter flights to Turkey are now banned, Turkish imports will be curbed, visa-free travel is no more, Russian tourism companies are forbidden from selling travel packages that include a stay in Turkey, and Turkish firms will face restrictions on their economic activity.
“It’s not just Turkey that has economic interests, Russia too has economic interests in relation to Turkey,” Turkish PM Ahmet Davutoglu said on Saturday, adding that he hoped Putin would act in a "cool-headed" manner.
Russia does indeed have economic interests in Turkey. Ankara paid Gazprom some $10 billion last year and Turkey accounts for nearly a third of the company's nat gas exports:
But this is most assuredly a two way street. As we noted on Saturday, Turkey is heavily dependent on Russia for energy and souring relations will put a non-trivial dent in Ankara's tourism revenues:
As we discussed on Wednesday, the idea that Turkey can easily replace Russian gas may be a pipe dream (no pun intended) despite Erdogan's grandstanding. Here's how we explained the situation facing Ankara:
What analysts (and Erdogan) seem to be discounting here is that ties between Russia and Iran have strengthened materially over the past six months and Russia's intervention in Syria will not be forgotten in Tehran. Throw in the fact that Russia and Iran are already in talks on a number of energy projects and it seems reasonable to suspect that if Iran believes Turkey is becoming too much of an impediment to the campaign in Syria, Tehran may just decide to drive a harder bargain when it comes to gas supplies. In short: if you're Turkey, you don't really want to put yourself in a position where your fallback plan in the event you anger your biggest energy supplier is to try and negotiate for more trade with that supplier's closest geopolitical ally, especially when you are actively seeking to subvert both of their goals in a strategically important country. As WSJ put it on Wednesday, "diverting the energy trade wouldn’t be easy."
No, it most certainly would not "be easy", and the big question going forward is this: is it realistic to believe, given what's going on in Syria, that Iran will be willing to make it any easier?
Ultimately, it's diffiult to say who has the stronger hand. Russia and Turkey - despite an otherwise tenuous relationship set against a history of confrontation (see The Czar vs. the Sultan from Foreign Policy) - have developed a lucrative trade partnership that neither side is particularly keen on scrapping. That said, the stakes are high and now that Moscow has hit back with sanctions, the ball is in Ankara's court.
Despite bombastic rhetoric from Erdogan (whose tone has softened at bit over the last 48 or so hours), Turkey cannot shoot down another Russian warplane. If they do, they risk an outright military confrontation with Russia. So unless Erdogan intends to plunge NATO into an armed conflict with the Russians, he'll need to find other ways to retailiate and refusing to buy from Gazprom probably isn't the the first, best option from a practical point of view.
What Turkey could do, however, is close the the Bosphorus Strait which would effectively cut Russia's supply line to Latakia.
Russia's biggest risk: Turkey shuts down Bosphorus to Russian ship transit
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 28, 2015
Here's Sputnik:
Tensions between Russia and Turkey over the downing of a Russian Su-24 bomber in Syria may challenge freedom of navigation through the Bosphorus Strait, a major pathway for Russian ships. However, a Turkish unilateral ban on the passage of Russian ships is unlikely since it would violate international law.
In recent months, Russia’s heavy military equipment has been delivered to Syria mostly by sea, with the shortest route coming through the Bosphorus Strait and the Dardanelles.
A sharp rise in tensions between Moscow and Ankara may challenge the delivery of Russian weapons and troops through the straits. If passage is prohibited for Russia there is still the way through the Gibraltar (which takes 13-14 days rather than four days through the Bosphorus) or by air.
In peacetime, Turkey is obligated to allow naval warships safe passage regardless of what flag they fly. As Sputnik goes on to note however, "in times of war, the passage of warships shall be left entirely to the discretion of the Turkish government." Although one Russian lawyer who spoke to RBK claims the Turks have no legal ground to block passage, it's not difficult to imagine a scenario whereby Erdogan decides to push the issue.
Indeed, if Ankara can disrupt Moscow's supply route to its forces in Syria, well then all the better for the FSA and all of the other proxy armies battling to hold onto territory near Aleppo in the face of the Russian and Iranian assault.
Of course such a move would raise serious questions regarding Turkey's adherence to the 1936 Montreux Convention and would only serve to inflame tensions between Moscow and Ankara. We'll be watching closely in the days and weeks ahead for evidence that Erdogan is impeding the progress of Russian vessels through the strait and in the meantime we'd remind you that Bilal Erodgan, the President's son and patron saint of Islamic State's multi-hundred million dollar oil enterprise, has a bird's eye view of the drama (from Today's Zaman, earlier this year):
President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an's son Bilal Erdo?an has moved his shipping company's office to a newly built four-story building with a Bosporus view in ?stanbul's Beylerbeyi neighborhood.
The Sözcü daily reported on Sunday that Bilal Erdo?an, a co-partner of a shipping company, has moved his office from Üsküdar to Beylerbeyi.
According to the claims in the report, Bilal Erdo?an purchased three plots of land on Yal?boyu Street in Beylerbeyi and constructed a four-storey company office on it. The cost of the building is estimated to be TL 340 million. The new office has a view of the Bosporus. It also has a parking lot and a courtyard.
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Yeah! Get the party started...I'm ready for some real action.
let's roll
Ease off the John Wayne war movies.
I am for "Love one another",
But if needed Russia can ship the cargo from the Caspian sea very accurately with the Calibr cruise missile with destruction of target 99% guarantee.
They can also use Iran for land and see transportation. Iranians will be happy to do it for free.
What if Bulgaria gets a new government that won't give in to Obama or Merkel arm twisting and blocks all of Turkeys traffic to Europe?
Serbia too will block it if Russia requests it.
Greece may follow as well.
Iran on the other hand may start blocking Turkish traffic too.
Soap operas produced in Turkey and dubbed into Spanish have become popular in Latin America. They are well directed and well acted, and have high TV quality. Naturally, they present comtemporary Turkey favorably, but not naively. The tension between tradition and modernity is well done. Scenes of the bridge over the Bosphorus at Istanbul appear frequently.
"Nice town, that Istanbul...
It'd be a real shame if something should happen to it."
We went through this 60 years ago. If Turkey closes the Bosphorus then Russia will reopen it. By obliterating Istanbul if that is what it takes.
One hydrogen bomb would ruin their whole day.
>>>Russia ... obliterating Istanbul if that is what it takes.
Absolutely no way that's going to happen.
Ankara, yes....
Russia will never use a H-Bomb on Istabul.
It could damage Hagia Sophia and this can not happen.
A N-Bomb maybe, if they are sure Hagia Sophia will not be scratched
The rest of the country is of no concern.
They could turn Hagia Sophia to the Orthodox Church afterward and the rest of the land to Greece.
Russia will never use a H-Bomb on Istabul.
It could damage Hagia Sophia and this can not happen.
A N-Bomb maybe, if they are sure Hagia Sophia will not be scratched
The rest of the country is of no concern.
They could turn Hagia Sophia to the Orthodox Church afterward and the rest of the land to Greece.
I hope Kurds, Armenia, Iran, Syria can all agree which part of Turkey belongs to whom...
P.S. Drats, forgot Bulgaria, I am sure they would like exit on Bosphorus...
so edrogan gets a 5bil payoff, from the zionazis, to start ww3 by sacrificing turkey. wwhat does he care?
Some of those missiles fired from the Caspian Sea occasionaaly go wildly off course...usually in a Northerly dircetion.
Erdogan would have to have a death wish. Putin already despises the man.
Erdogan has gone off the rails because he's raging inside. Sisi is allowed to play dictator but he is not although he's been a faithful little NATO lackey. Somebody give Erdogan a few dictatorial powers before he's foaming at the mouth.
Turkey would be just asking for it if it attempted to close the strait...
Russia's prepared to airlift a lightning-fast task force to take control of the strait and ensure it stays open. That would be the last resort, but Russia is prepared - Putin himself stated this when he announced the sanctions on Turkey.
Putin's forces can be in place before Turkey and NATO can react.
Do you like your turkey well-done?
Never heard this before. Must be in the news at RT or somewhere. Please provide a link where Putin announced that Russia would take control of the strait.
Turkey - the haven for oil fund flows for ISIS while downing a Russan plane when Putin is with agenda containing ISIS. Turkey with its NATO badge is fast emerging into a conduit for the debris of ME to flow through into Europe. If Bhosphorus is closed with encouragement, it will be all in alignment of how proxy states are used and their leaders propped. Is Turkey up to the mark to avoid being another discarded tissue when other developments take place in one of the greatest game changes that are taking place ?
I noticed a lot of contrails in the AM sky today. All were heading east. Contrails are usually military aircraft. You do the math, folks.
Closing the Bosphorus will be war.
Look at the AIS tracks; traffic seems slowed down. Are Russkie ships being blocked?
http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:3095/zoom:10
It certainly does not appear that any Russian ships are currently being blocked. I counted two Russian wessels under power and currently passing through the straits. After that I stopped counting.
Thanks for the cool site link! marinetraffick.com
We are all slowly inching towards WW3
They say about WWI that people were sleepwalking towards it. That implies they were not really aware of it. They could also not envisage then the scale and brutality of that coming war. This all does not relate to our times cause we are aware that we are inching towards a major conflict and we know that it will be brutal.
When Putin will finish his channel from Black Sea to Caspian Sea there will be no Istanbul; flood of biblical proportions will wash the Augean Stables called Istanbul
http://www.californiascapitol.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Hercules-and-the-Augean-Stables.jpg
http://yaconto.com/uploads/fotos/Seaport/eurasia-canal.jpg
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/images/figure17_10.gif
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-LK0O4XYbxUU/UZz4STLvPZI/AAAAAAAAA1Y/VBNCSYYBhoM/s400/Pre-and-post-flood-size-of-the-Black-and-Caspian-Seas.png
One nuke will conveniently get rid of all those houses and "infrastructure" around the Bosphorus, conveniently opening it.
The water will be radioactive, but a boat will still float on it. Just ask the Japanese.
16 Million Turkish Kurds are about to be well armed.
So unless Erdogan intends to plunge NATO into an armed conflict with the Russians
This could also mean the end of NATO and a movement toward an EU military force. The countries that might answer Turkey's call
Greece? no, don't think so
Bulgaria? no
Any of the Balkans? nyet
Germany? already calling for the US to reign Erdogan in
France? probably stick with Russia
Southern Europe? They have their own problems
That leaves Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, UK and the US. The coalition of the brain dead.
>>>Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, UK and the US. The coalition of the brain dead.
Poland's down too, if only for old times' sake.
Ask George Friedman, he'll tell ya.
"That leaves Latvia [...]"
Therein lies the problem. Latvia has Russia quaking in its boots.
Bosporusphorus whatever, that's for boats, right? How about air space?
And how come Iran can't tie up tanker traffic in hormuz? You know that little strait where oil from Kuwait goes east. Oh if there is a tanker blockade the U S navy will what sail right up under those mobile artillery batteries hidden in the cliffs above and then what get bottled up like fish in a barrel. You think the obamanator will risk the navy turning tail and running from the ayatollah? They better watch out. One small tanker damaged by Iran and the insurers pull coverage. How high do you want oil?
No Trump Card for TRK. So if TRK declares War on RUS/SYR and closes the Bosphorous, RUS at that point can take it over by force if they wanted to after they send several hundred Cruise Missiles over TRK. RUS can probably send more Troops than what TRK's NATO Allies can muster (GRC will probably abstain, since TRK was the agressor) and PWN TRK's Airspace.
TRK will capitulate, Mr. Erdogan and Sons disposed of, and a new TRK Govt will talk terms of surrender and make peace with RUS.
Don't think so, 'Merica Firsters? Take a good look at a Map of the Region.
EVEN IF the Bosphorous was blocked, there're still the Baltic and Northern Fleets, not to mention that it's a short hop from RUS to SYR via IRN and IRQ. They can practially AIRLIFT IN almost everything they need to kick the TRK-endorsed Troops out of SYR.
Turkey's Bosphorus strength is due to the fact that it controls both sides of it. However, most of Turkey (non-European) is east of the Strait. If Turkey should attempt to close the Strait, in violation of international law, NATO would not be obligated to defend Turkey.
So how difficult would it be for Russia to mount an attack against the European side? First they would have take out the bridges, severing Turkey. Then destroy Turkey's defenses on the European side, culminating in an amphibious assault. To placate Europe, they could promise to return Constantinople to Greece after 562 years of Islamist rule. It would be very interesting.
Oh please!! I dares turkey to close bosphorus straits. Just try. With OR Without WAR DECLARATIONS.
I dares turkey to close that straits. Even WITH US & NATO backup forces.
Actually, i WISH turkey close that straits. Go ahead turkey, what stopping you?? Chicken much??
Putin - "Go ahead, make my dyehn!"
The key phrase -in times of war- determines what Turkey can do. If it is Turkey that declares war without having been attacked first, Turkey becomes the aggressor. NATO's commitment to mutual self defense is based upon the principle that "an attack on one is an attack on all". It is not bindingto support a war of aggression.
Sure they could do that for a day or two until the Russians turn off the gas.
My two cents . If Turkey blocks the Borsphorus , Russia might invade the European section of Turley and annex it . The fall of Constantinopolis ( Istambul ) has repercussions even today . Nothing was done in the past about this , but now the third Rome ( Moskow ) has the power to redress the situation .
"Turkey's Trump Card: Erdogan Can Cut Russia's Syrian Supply Line By Closing Bosphorus"
No they can't.
Egypt could close the Suez Canal
O'Bammer could close the Panama Canal
Iran could close the Straits of Hormuz
Erdogan colud close the Bospherus
-only one of these is true.
"... By Closing Bosphorus."
Well the manafs can also damage Russian interest by killing themselves in order for Russia to loose a trading partner but... it is ridiculous you know. Closing this trade rout is not eaven possible in wartime... let alone now.
Whatever the physical possibilities are of Turkey closing the Bosphorus for Russian shipping, I would see it as a grave error. Russia would not stand by and allow it to happen without hostilities of some sort. The risk of these breaking out in the heart of Istanbul, Turkey's largest city, is not to be taken lightly. Add to that a further collapse in Turkish tourism and the price would be very heavy.
The metaphor of cornering a great big healthy Grizzly Bear applies.
Does Russia plan on violating Turkish airspace again? If so that plane will probably be shot down. What else do you expect.
hate to break it to you...but Russia can just send stuff thru Iran and Northern Iraq, areas which are all opposed to ISIS
http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=map+turkey+iran&view=detailv2&&id=7816994F39AE0765048D3FB2596C6F3E59BF8312&selectedIndex=0&ccid=u1GrQylU&simid=608002490420955545&thid=OIP.Mbb51ab432954ed0a6df748f053414028H0&ajaxhist=0
It looks like in addition to Syria, Russia will soon be forced to fight two US/NATO's proxy wars: one in Ukraine and one in Turkey.
The Minsk II Agreement is definitely dead. 277 Ukrainian tanks and heavy artillery at the frontlines in Novorussia:
It is for this reason that a full century of Russian miltarism was geared toward acquiring TSARGRAD, otherwise known as Byzantiun, New Rome, Constantinople, Stamboul, or Istanbul!
The British fought a war with Russia to prevent this, and approved of Turkey's wars with Russia so as to keep the Bear away from the Indian trade routes. In 1915, they surrendered to Russian demands and promised byTreaty that TSARGRAD would belong to them after WWI. But the bolshevik revolution brought the deal to an end, and the only time the Russians ever marched through their would-be capital was in 1920, when the defeated White Army paused there on their way into exile...
I had no idea that there were so many Erdogan supporters here at ZH. At least that is the only conclusion I can make after reading the comments on this subject.
Nuke Istanbul or Ankara? Launch an amphibious Russian invasion?
Nobody is happier to hear such talk that the proto-Sultan himself. Given his quest to stifle dissent and gain increased, even absolute, power for himself and, no doubt, his posterity in a restored Presidentially-labeled sultanate, having a bunch of foreigners threaten his country with invasion and annihilation must be music to his ears.
Even better is to have Turkey's ancestral enemy, replete with a newly buffed-up State Orthodox religion rubber stamping Putin's moves, being the menace. Yes, everyone in the Middle East loves the idea of a new army of Crusaders coming to visit them.
Of course Russia has no realistic amphibious lift capacity-- at least not enough to put a dent in a standing army of one million backed by another million in reserves-- and any use of a nuclear weapon would tear away the mask of reason that Putin normally projects as well as lead to a land office business at Pakistani embassies region-wide.
In short, Erdogan himself is probably printing up leaflets that prominently feature ZH commentary as a way of binding his population firmly to his bid for leadership.
Hey, Shill-a-bel, I'm printing up a bunch of pamphlets for Haifa and Tel-Aviv which say "Leave the City".
Would you like to distribute them? I can pay you a billionth of a bitcoin each. You should only need about 6 million.