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Ukraine's Looming "19 Fukushimas" Scenario
Submitted by Dmitry Orlov via ClubOrlov.com, (author of The Five Stages Of Collapse)
With all the action in Syria, the Ukraine is no longer a subject for discussion in the West. In Russia, where the Ukraine is still a major problem looming on the horizon, and where some 1.5 million Ukrainian refugees are settling in, with no intentions of going back to what's left of the Ukraine, it is still actively discussed. But for the US, and for the EU, it is now yet another major foreign policy embarrassment, and the less said about it the better.
In the meantime, the Ukraine is in full-blown collapse - all five glorious stages of it - setting the stage for a Ukrainian Nightmare Before Christmas, or shortly after.
Phase 1. Financially, the Ukrainian government is in sovereign default as of a couple of days ago. The IMF was forced to break its own rules in order to keep it on life support even though it is clearly a deadbeat. In the process, the IMF stiffed Russia, which happens to be one of its major shareholders; what gives?
Phase 2. Industry and commerce are approaching a standstill and the country is rapidly deindustrializing. Formerly, most of the trade was with Russia; this is now over. The Ukraine does not make anything that the EU might want, except maybe prostitutes. Recently, the Ukraine has been selling off its dirt. This is illegal, but, given what's been happening there, the term “illegal” has become the stuff of comedy.
Phase 3. Politically, the Ukrainian government is a total farce. Much of it has been turned over to fly-by-night foreigners, such as the former Georgian president Saakashvili, who is a wanted criminal in his own country, which has recently stripped him of his citizenship. The parliament is stocked with criminals who bought their seat to gain immunity from prosecution, and who spend their time brawling with each other. Prime Minister Yatsenyuk was recently hauled off the podium by his crotch; how dignified is that? He seemed unfazed. Where are his testicles? Perhaps Victoria Nuland over at the US State Dept. is keeping them in a jar. This sort of action may be fun to watch on Youtube, but the reality is quite sad: those who “run” the Ukraine (if the term still applies) are only interested in one thing: stealing whatever is left.
Phase 4. Ukrainian society (if the term still applies) has been split into a number of warring factions. This was, to some extent, inevitable. What happens if you take bits of Poland, Hungary, Romania and Russia, and stick them together willy-nilly? Well, results may vary; but if you also spend $5 billion US (as the Americans did) turning the Ukrainians against Russia (and, since they are mostly Russian, against themselves), then you get a complete disaster.
Phase 5. Cultural collapse is quite advanced. The Ukraine once had the same world-class educational system as Russia, but since independence they switched to teaching in Ukrainian (a made-up language) using nonexistent textbooks. The kids have been taught a bogus history hallucinated by rabid Ukrainian nationalists. They've been told that Russia is backward and keeping them back, and that they deserve to be happy in the EU. (Just like the Greeks? Yeah...) But now the population has been reduced to levels of poverty not commonly seen outside of Africa, and young people are fleeing, or turning to gangsterism and prostitution, to merely survive. This doesn't make for a happy cultural narrative. What does it mean to be “a Ukrainian” now? Expletives deleted. Sorry I asked.
Now, here's what it all really means. With so much going wrong, the Ukraine has been unable to secure enough natural gas or coal supplies to provide a supply cushion in case of a cold snap this winter. A few weeks of frosty weather will deplete the supply, and then pipes will freeze, rendering much of the urban areas unlivable from then on (because, recall, there is no longer any money, or any industry to speak of, to repair the damage). That seems bad enough, but we aren't quite there yet.
You see, the Ukraine produces over half of its electricity using nuclear power plants. 19 nuclear reactors are in operation, with 2 more supposedly under construction. And this is in a country whose economy is in free-fall and is set to approach that of Mali or Burundi! The nuclear fuel for these reactors was being supplied by Russia. An effort to replace the Russian supplier with Westinghouse failed because of quality issues leading to an accident. What is a bankrupt Ukraine, which just stiffed Russia on billions of sovereign debt, going to do when the time comes to refuel those 19 reactors? Good question!
But an even better question is, Will they even make it that far? You see, it has become known that these nuclear installations have been skimping on preventive maintenance, due to lack of funds. Now, you are probably already aware of this, but let me spell it out just in case: a nuclear reactor is not one of those things that you run until it breaks, and then call a mechanic once it does. It's not a “if it ain't broke, I can't fix it” sort of scenario. It's more of a “you missed a tune-up so I ain't going near it” scenario. And the way to keep it from breaking is to replace all the bits that are listed on the replacement schedule no later than the dates indicated on that schedule. It's either that or the thing goes “Ka-boom!” and everyone's hair falls out.
How close is Ukraine to a major nuclear accident? Well, it turns out, very close: just recently one was narrowly avoided when some Ukro-Nazis blew up electric transmission lines supplying Crimea, triggering a blackout that lasted many days. The Russians scrambled and ran a transmission line from the Russian mainland, so now Crimea is lit up again. But while that was happening, the Southern Ukrainian, with its 4 energy blocks, lost its connection to the grid, and it was only the very swift, expert actions taken by the staff there that averted a nuclear accident.
I hope that you know this already, but, just in case, let me spell it out again. One of the worst things that can happen to a nuclear reactor is loss of electricity supply. Yes, nuclear power stations make electricity—some of the time—but they must be supplied with electricity all the time to avoid a meltdown. This is what happened at Fukushima Daiichi, which dusted the ground with radionuclides as far as Tokyo and is still leaking radioactive juice into the Pacific.
And so the nightmare scenario for the Ukraine is a simple one. Temperature drops below freezing and stays there for a couple of weeks. Coal and natural gas supplies run down; thermal power plants shut down; the electric grid fails; circulator pumps at the 19 nuclear reactors (which, by the way, probably haven't been overhauled as recently as they should have been) stop pumping; meltdown!
And so, if you want to say a prayer for the Ukraine this holiday season, don't bother because it's well and truly fucked. But do say a prayer for global warming. If this winter stays very, very warm, then the “19 Fukushimas” scenario just may be averted. This is not impossible: we've been seeing one freakishly warm winter after another, and each passing month is setting new records. The future is looking hot—as in very warm. Let us pray that it doesn't also turn out to be hot—as in radioactive.
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Probably trolling in Kiev for underage boys...
I am of Ukrainian desent and there is a bit of a psychosus that must be understood to understand the above post.
If you are of Ukrainian decent (a curious description of one's ethnic heritage in so far as both sides of my family great grand parents had Austrian passports even though they were from Galicia) everything the Russians do is bad. Russians (communists) are evil, didn't you know? There are is no such thing as a Ukrainian communist or Ukrainian totalitarian murderer, they are ALL RUSSIAN.
Do you see how that works?
I live over seas, dad passed away, came back for the parastac (funeral and prayer service), chatted with the parish priest and his wife (greek Catholic). Putin this, Russia that, evil this, evil that.....
Hmmm......
I mentioned that Putin signed a law passed by the Duma that made advertising and propagating of homosexuality illegal in Russia. Canada has gay marriage, Russia doesn't..."who is evil again father?".
Yah but flub, flub, flub......
Yah, its just the way the brains are wiried. Its odd.
Russians=bad
Ukrainians=good.
That is how they think.
This applies only to Western Ukraine of course, in the east its basically Russia anyway.
Squid
I have a direct connection to Ukraine and am told it is getting worse. Jobs have disappeared.
To be specific I was told that the local newspaper would hae about 30 pages of job listings and now that is down to 3.... That is a 90 percent reduction and something I would call catastrophic.
If what others wrote about Russia being the main customer of Ukrainian industry then this explains it.
Ukraine matter and Turkey is not so far apart as some think and there will inevitably be more sabotage of critical infrastructure
Military operations in preparation in and around Syria
this is an extremely informative article.,,recommend highly.
http://www.voltairenet.org/article189631.html
These fuckers don't exactly blend in. I would hate to be one of them and caught by the Russians or Donbass Ukrainians.
They will die a very unpleasant death.
global warming to save the day.
Urupp needs moar refug€€$!
STASI code-named "Erika" aka NSA asset Merkill wants 20 million Ukrops to shoar up aging Germany.
It's a win win as cookie monster Nudelman would say.
Nuclear plants are just slow motin atomc bombs, they are the true atomic bombs I might add, not these dropped high explosives they tell the sheep are atomic missiles. Even look at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, they were only 10 and 11 or something on the Japanese damage charts, they were actually firebombed like Dressden was, the reason they never tried to say the same for Dressden was because there were too many well educated westerners that would call bs straight away.
In any case, with the reactors and storage facilities, we have already doomed ourselves. The next incident should not be long now. Us fucking humans are incapable of looking after anything for a long duration.
No so my lad...
We haven't already doomed ourselves, we have allowed ourselves to be dumbed down by the state.
The issue in question is what to do with all the nasty stuff that comes out of a reactor.
The answer seems obvious and easy, just put the stuff, all of it, right back in the reactor. If the bad stuff was created by fission, the bad stuff can be removed by fission. This is called fuel reprocessing and is very well understood from a chemistry engineering standpoint.
Problem is, President Carter, a nuclear engineer, outlawed by executive order and bankrupted the industry before Reagan rescinded the order.
They should start the industry back up again. it beats trying to store stuff for 10,000 years. Who are we fooling, we can't engineer secure sites to last for 10,000 years, 200 years, yes, 10,000 no. So reprocess the spent rods for isotopes with half-lives of 10-30 years, and we're good.
Squid
You say it can be used till there is nothing left of it, fine.
But you agree then, that we (not us personally, but those in charge) have doomed ourselves ? By the burying of this stuff, storage built to last 100s of years barely make ten as leeks start to happen. They will unfortonately not start recycling the waste, as this is not their agenda, so I am right, sort of.
You know between all of the other horror stories the Western banking establishment has created with there misadventures since 9/11 especially this one, that the crimes that have already been committed and the damage that has been done is irreversable.
The malevolent and very deliberate destruction of Ukraine is by far the horror of all horrors.
it's a testament to the Russian Federation's patience and collective soul that an escalation to a nuclear conflict with NATO hasn't already begun because this must be what the West wants as they know economically they have been thoroughly routed and will never get back what they have lost!
This is truly one of the scariest reads of all on ZH ,because we know and understand what comes next if we are unwilling or unable to assemble a war crimes tribunal for the U.S. Federal Government, U.K. parliament, Israeli Knesset and all the EU member states with a U.S. military presence in them... Lots of introspection and soul searching heading into the last week of 2015.
Merry Christmas folks!
Which way does the wind blow? The jet stream comes down over Europe, hits the warm African air and then goes up right over Ukraine and then into Russia. Karma baby.
Ukraine reminds me of what's surrounding Detroit and East St.Louis.The United States and the European Union can pour billions of tax dollars in there.Better that NeoCons do that than give to their own,right?that's the mentality of sluts like Victoria Nuland.
First, losing electrical DEMAND (i.e. "the grid") causes an AUTOMATIC reactor shutdown (SCRAM); Second, the only real problem for a nuclear reactor is loss of coolant, which can only occur if the ON-SITE back-up generators fail. Aren't there enough REAL global events happening that warrant scare tactics?
Yeah, the article is just a lot of fear mongering bullshit. And not only SCRAM, they can also posion the reactor to shut down the reaction. They inject various neutron abosorbing compounds into the coolant water.
I'm surprised the article didn't include the CHANCE an asteroid crashing into one of the nuclear reactors to create another Chernobyl. Yup, there's a chance of that happening too.
Too bad that won't work.
Back-up generators will run max a few days until their diesel tank is empty. No more diesel deliveries without electric power.
The reactor and even the used fuel rods have to be cooled for many years, otherwise the nuclear reaction - even stopped by Scram - will start again and get out of control.
For the author's benefit, "the Ukraine" is a region; "Ukraine" is the nation. Big difference. He/she/it/Durdan needs to drop the "the" in his/her/its/Durdan's reference to the nation.
While the article contains some truth, it also contains plenty of horse shit. It is very evident that it is written by a Russian and his attitude is part of the problem in relationship between Ukrainians and Russians. Telling someone that they are using a made up language. Is a great example of how to piss someone off.
How about a little history. It was Russian policy to Russify those under them. Ukrainian language is not a made up language. In the part of Ukraine that was part if Russia it was destroyed. It survived in the area that was under control of Austria-Hungarian Empire because that empire had no such policy. This area was part of Poland that was partitioned between Russia, Prussia and Austria-Hungary. All of Russia occupied Poland was under such policy.
Belarus also experienced this. The argument of made up language is a lot more valid when referring to Belarusian. They actually put it together using dialects from their more Western villages as the dialect spoken by the peasants was thought to be more pure.
Yes there are parts of Ukraine that are ethnically predominately Russian. That is more of an issue with Russian and Soviet administrative history.
Hell, Crimea is not an area that was originally Russian either. The Tatars help it before the Russians. However the Tatars conquered it also and frankly I rather see it in Russian hands than those assholes who were an invading plague throughout centuries of history and had to be defended against like their Turk Muslim cohorts.
Hey Orlov - why do all the Russians stick a "the" before Ukraine and continue to do so even after being corrected?
How can one be so stupid that they do not see that it grammatically incorrect?
How can some in one article write Russia, Poland and Germany multiple times but then "the Ukraine"??
Nice analysis by AI Tinfoil and this article itself is breakthrough journalism.
American foreign policy has been taken over by the neo-cons. It no longer matters which party is in control because neither is. The Deep State controls all aspects of government, or at least those that it wants to.
The manifestations are predictable--more evil and chaos in the world, with more people dying. Population control. Nukes are a great way to do it, plus feed the sick to the medical industrial complex as they slowly die.
The neo-con vision has shifted into a delusional paranoid haze. Merkel and Obama can't think clearly. No one is doing what is in the best interests of their countries anymore. Instead the blind march to war replaces the human instincts of love, compassion and charity which make living here tolerable, and represent this season which is the opposite of war, hate, and violence.
Economically, the dissolution of borders (think Elysium) means more profits for the sociopathic ruling class whose greed has no limits.
They will not stop. They must be stopped. Already the militaries are in open rebellion. Intel went to the Syrians even as the politicians were saying that Assad's removal was our only goal and that arming Islamic fundies was worth it.
Yeah maybe a little off-topic but not when you consider the evil master plan. You see it's like Thoreau; we're whacking at the branches instead of chopping off the root.
Ah the jaded, the righteous, and of course the Moscow paid trolls are all in on this one. Every keyboard cow poke is going to comment here.
If you do not know the history of the Ukrainian people why do you post? Do you even get that the Rus, what is now called the Russian people originated in Kiev? That in historic perspective the Rus were the Ukrainians and all things Russian derive from that root in Kiev?
I watched the Euromaidan protests live on the internet night after night as average Ukrainians had had enough of the crooked Moscow lapdog leader selling out their nation and corrupting government for personal use. Until the night Putin's Spetznatz came in and started to shoot unarmed civilians in the capital.
It all started when the newly free Ukraine decided to leave the Russian sphere of influence and join the EU. The Ukranian leader at the time, a criminal on the Moscow payroll who has never been brought to justice for his crimes, vetoed the legislation and voided the treaties.
The people in the square that were shot were mostly college kids and unpaid workers, it was as much a party as a protest. A political rave that never stopped and a deep personal embarassment to Putin.
Since then Ukraine has been invaded by Russia and the world looked the other way, dismembered and shut out of fair treatment by the UN. No, it is no longer a free and independent state, but it will also never be Russian territory again. It never really was anyway. It was forced into the Soviet Union, and like Ireland was part of the UK it will get freedom one day. I just hope that when they do it will not be at the cost of giving up whole counties to the enemy as compromise the way the Irish compromised and allowed the UK to keep Ulster. Because in the long run, war is worse than compromise, but anytime a nation forces itself on another land there will NEVER be peace.