The Movies Are Becoming Just Like The Markets: A Handful Of Blockbusters And Tons Of Losers
Back in July we first revealed something troubling: leadership breadth was collapsing not just across the Nasdaq...
... but the broader market as well:
As the WSJ had calculated, out of a total of 500 stocks, just Amazon, Google, Apple, Facebook, Gilead and Walt Disney accounted for more than all of the $199 billion in market-capitalization gains in the S&P 500. In fact, as of July, just these six firms were responsible for more than half of the $664 billion in value added to the Nasdaq Composite Index as of July.
Since then, the situation became more acute as the leadership thinned even further and as Goldman updated in November, only five firms – AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, FB, and GE – totaling 9% of the equity cap of the index have accounted for more than 100% of the S&P 500 YTD return. Without these stocks the index would have posted a 220 bp lower total return or -2.2% YTD.
Of course, in the end, not even the thinning leadership was enough to offset the market being dragged down to a negative print, its first since 2008.
While all of the above should be well-known to regular readers, what may come as a surprise is that as go the markets, so go the movies.
According to the WSJ, Hollywood just had its biggest-ever year at the box office in 2015, collecting $11.1 billion in ticket sales, up 7% from the previous year and surpassing the record of $10.92 billion set in 2013. All of the growth, however, occurred at the top of the heap, or in other words, 2015 was a record year "thanks to a handful of blockbusters that left a whole lot of duds in the dust."
‘Jurassic World,’ left, was one of 2015’s blockbusters, Disney’s
‘Tomorrowland’ was among the year’s costly disappointments
But the runaway success of “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” and “Jurassic World” raises questions about the overall health of the movie business. The problem: More films that don’t have the muscle to be megahits are struggling to attract any audience at all.
What may be also little known is that for every megahit like Star Wars there were countless just as expensive flops:
A startling number of big-budget movies bombed in 2015, proving that no amount of marketing can pull audiences into theaters at a time when Netflix queues are long and social media spreads word about a stinker in a heartbeat. The year’s costly disappointments included “Pan” and “Jupiter Ascending” from Time Warner Inc. ’s Warner Bros., “Fantastic Four” from 21st Century Fox ’s Twentieth Century Fox studio, Walt Disney Co. ’s “Tomorrowland,” and “Pixels” from Sony.
It wasn't just a question of marketing: in 2015 eight movies failed to gross even $10 million despite full-fledged advertising campaigns, a record in recent years. In the past, spending $20 million or more to promote a film almost always guaranteed a respectable performance, said Chris Aronson, president of domestic distribution for Fox. But “there is no bottom anymore,” he said.
Another curious parallel: just like the middle class is disappearing in US society, so that staple of solidly profitable, if not blockbuster, 2nd tier movies is also on the extinction list: "worrisome to some in Hollywood is the disappearance of second-tier movies—those that aren’t blockbusters but are solidly profitable. Last year, 22 movies grossed between $100 million and $350 million domestically, down from 31 in 2014 and the fewest since 2006."
“Gigantic hits are actually becoming more common and the midsize hits are becoming rarer,” said Adam Goodman, a producer and former film group president of Viacom Inc.’s Paramount Pictures.
In total, the WSJ calculates that the five most successful movies of 2015 grossed $2.47 billion, accounting for 22% of the year’s total box office. The previous high for the top five was $2.05 billion, or 19% of the overall take, in 2012.
And here comes the punchline: for the other 129 films released nationally last year, the results were anything but impressive. They brought in a collective $8.65 billion, the lowest total for non-top-five movies since 2008, when ticket prices were 14% lower.
In other words, just like in the stock market, a record high portion of Hollywood "gains", or rather box office ticket sales, came from just five movies.
How to explain this curious schism?
Audiences have become “very binary” in their moviegoing choices, said Tom Rothman, chairman of Sony Pictures Entertainment’s motion picture business. “Either a film is relevant to them and penetrates the pop-cultural zeitgeist, in which case the upside is enormous, or it doesn’t rise to that level and they’re out altogether.”
“Many younger people no longer feel compelled to go to the movies as an activity in general,” said Sony’s Mr. Rothman. “Instead, they go to see a particular movie.”
One silver lining: overseas ticket sales, which rose an estimated 5% last year to $27.5 billion according to Rentrak, can help make up for losses at home. “Terminator: Genisys,” for instance, grossed $351 million internationally, compared with $90 million in the U.S. and Canada. But foreign box office more often exacerbates domestic trends. The top five domestic movies were all among the eight highest grossing internationally.
Consider this the movies' equivalent of the "least dirty shirt" phenomenon in markets where foreign capital flows enter the US "just because."
But what is most troubling for Hollywood is the evaporation of creativity and originality when it comes to box office success.
As they have for a number of years, sequels and reboots continued to rule the box office last year. The only exceptions that made the top 10 were animated features, such as Pixar Animation Studios’ “Inside Out,” and Fox’s surprise hit adaptation of best-selling book “The Martian.”
The trend toward sequels, reboots, computer-animated films and adaptations of comic books, toys or videogames is likely to accelerate in coming years as the major studios, increasingly focused on big-budget “event” movies they hope will become blockbuster hits, rely on formulas that have worked for them before.
This trend toward mindless recreation of a successful formula which has worked while undergoing minor tweaks will continue:
there were about 27 such films last year, and nearly 40 are scheduled for release this year and in 2017. Some of them are new installments of successful movie series like “X-Men” and “Fast and Furious” while others, such as “Wonder Woman” and “Ghostbusters” are attempts to create or refresh big-screen franchises.
The appropriate market analogy? Since nothing else is working, take the one thing that still does work, namely parasitic frontrunning of order flow by HFTs and make it better, faster, more profitable: in short - change HFTs technology from microwaves to lasers.
The only good news is that at least unlike the "market", humans are at least still directly involved in the creation of movies. When algos start typing up movie scripts and participating in the obligatory sex scenes, that's when Hollywood execs should quietly exit stage left.
(14 votes)
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you're right ... but you have to wonder if the pics are all typical planned and trying to capture her 20-something beauty.... and that she has the same eye type that Jimmy had as a youngster...puffy... English (though now we're told he's of Foreigner breed !) ....
PROBABLY A PLANNED SHOOT ....sure he's proud
LED ZEPPELIN !!! LOVE
..the dailymail link goes to depths to list the Goddess's pedigree of elite British schooling....
how else could Master Knight Jimmy decide ?
good for him and lucky for her.... has any young stealth woman actually learned from such an experience to further the mentor's wisdom ? ? ?
(i'd like MsC to comment =- but she may have been married to her one and only love so to have no comment_ )
MsC - would you take Robert Plant's hand in marriage if he asked ?
Jimmy Page has always been a bit of a creepy f**k.
1. Go to youtube and look for the plagarism Led Zeppelin video. Quite a few of their songs were rip offs of other songs. At least 9 or 10.
2. He had a 13 year old girlfriend in Californa at the height of their popularity.
3. Fan of Alistar Crowley like Keith and Mick.
4. Was never as a cool as Jeff Beck in the Yardbirds. Beck was the cool one.
5. Somewhat treated John Paul Jones like a second class citizen in the band.
I do know someone who had dealings with Page and he said he was alright.
GeezFreddie, turn off the TV....
Jimmy Page & Robert Plant couldn't doublehandedly turn on the World.... especially afte rthe FBI targeted John Lennon ...
but they still tried ....
Hey Freddie, I've got some friends in Laurel Canyon who could use a dog/cat sitter while they're away - you up for it?
Dude you kind of jumped the shark below when you said Happy Days was good TV. I mean seriously - you are pathetic if you think that.
A really shitty attempt to cash in on Lucas second film American Grafitti which was pretty shitty too. THX 1138 was so much better.
Also ***anyone*** who liked that evil vile shitbag Alistar Crowley is a scumbag. Zeppelin were very popular but it is like bubblegum pop/heavy metal. Sold a shitload of records but they are like muzak.
I want a 4some with her and Christina Hendrix and Ilsa Fisher.
Got damn tho she was sexy in that movie.
I was stunned she was opies spawn.
you are GoD - do it !!!!!!!!!!!!
Jurassic Park has great CGI like Rita Katz fake ass ISIS videos.
I cannot wait until one of the ISIS hostages is chased down and eaten by a dinosaur in "Syria" or chased down by cowboys and indians on Paramount's backlot in Hollywood pretending to be Syria.
Who does the CGI? Dreamworks or Industrial Light and Magic. The hostages being lit on fire in a cage and the one where they drowned the hostages in orange suits were not one of her better efforts. I think Lucas Industrial Light and Magic would never do shoddy work like that.
I had heard Rita is related to Spielberg.
I knew I had to watch Jurassic World when it was described as "1970s sexist."
I would rather pay the going ticket price for new movies to see old classics on the big screen, most released before my time and only seen on TV.
Perhaps investing in a 70" TV and a quality surround sound system in a custom-designed media room would satisfy your desires. All that for what, about $50K? To save money, you could always watch Gone With the Wind on your 7" Android, but I doubt you'd enjoy the experience.
Hell Y!!!!a!! Classics!
even the SixMillionDollar Man Steve Austin TV Rerun are better than this crap they're putting out
Well that's a TV show but speaking of, I'd rather see Hee Haw with Nurse Goodbody than what's on the tube now. The Beverly Hillbillies was some funny shit, every episode.
Green Acres was also funny as hell.
I stopped watching TV years ago. Relatives mention Homeland which is some Deep State crap that is popular now on TV. I essentailly told them they are morons and that i try to deal in reality versus brainwashing disinformation about Deep State.
People are so stupid. F TV and F Hollywood.
+ 100 Green Acres is the shit - that is filmed on so many different levels and subtexts. It was the Electric Kool Aid in the 70's.
that's why I say my AGE group is the BEST - we got Green Acres - Bewitched - Bowery Boys - I Dream of Jeannie - Happy Days - Mork - all the WWII movies - all the Herbie Love Bug movies - you name it, I could list a thousand movies and two thousand other shows... no wonder I was glad my Pops was not a fake Physicist forced to fake the shit Moon Landings !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
MMMM, I *cream* of Jeannie...
There is a movie theater im my town that plays classics one day a week. i went to see The Blue Angel with Marlene Deitrich. Die Blaue Angel. What a powerful movie.
Black & White BitcheZZ make me Hard !
seriously - here's what today's kids & young parents have to deal with :
Miley Cyrus's BetaKitten MKUltra Programming shown for all to see :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfwJA0f0UTg
She pretends to be a baby in a 21year old skin while sucking & f*(((ing her BB'talking BBFriend
how did we degenerate to this ? we let the JFK assassins get away with it!
With the cost of taking a family of 4-5 to the movies approaching "mini-vacation" levels, is it any surprise most families have decided movies aren't worth the cost in most cases?
It's just too much money to say offhand "well, it's raining outside so let's go see a movie instead!"
Mini-vacations don't cost $60 +/-.
And you missed the part where plenty of budgets include a movie; hence the success of this latest iteration of must-see "entertainment."
besides you could have your whole family shot to pieces in one of them there places---just saying
well, thank goodness theWeinstein's don't have to worry about us Joe & Sue family USA anymore... Mr. yellen, crank up our bonus's and I'd like 2.3 Bill$$$$ on my visa with 0$ interest, thank you very much...
Still waiting for that cunt Weinstein to come out with his anti-gun movie that the fat fuck promised.
He's made millions using guns in movies, the corpulent hypocrite. This fat bag of shit should jump in his own toilet and flush it.
Him and that smelly bird nosed bitch Meryl Streep...what a total cunt.
Maybe movie goers are tired of being bombarded with a big dose Hollywood left wing propaganda with their movies.
Yes I thought American Sniper was very left wing
/s
ALL of Hollywood and ALL of TV is total shit. Total brainwashing - love Deep State, intel agencies, gun violence and mayhem, sadism, fantasy, spy gadgets, drones, zombies.
If you watch it - you support it and you are a retard.
American Sniper? Bushes, clintons and Obola all work for the same PNAC, Zio, elites, banskters and inetl agencies. They are all the same.
Wait a few weeks and watch it for free on Kodi. I usually wait for the first HQ links but even some of the "CAM" links are pretty good.
Kodi? geez, thanks RobD.... withour you, ZH, and Phone//////////Star teh Hedge would be so Spammedalotnot...... LongCamGirllZZZZ
Tomorrowland was a waste of precious time, and I saw it ripped off the net for free.
but NeverLand is still available - let's Zero's take this amazingproperty off the MARKET.
Let's do it - Knuks!~ Chunga! @WB7 !!! = Tyler Durden and his mistress Anjolina ...
this is peanuts for this crowd.... come on,,,,, NeverlandZero's ! We Can do it!
Zchat me Up BiTTchEZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Star Wars sucked so bad i was embarrassed to be watching it...i think the strategy is to make nice looking trailers, get people to come into the theatre and then screw them in the dark
well, it was not what it was hyped to be that's for sure...but at least it was a lot better then the prequel trilogy.
I didn't even go see it. I saw Hunger Games and Hateful 8 this year and that was enough to keep me away for another year, at least.
All trash
I kind of figured it would end up there. Thanks. Now I won't even bother watching it on disc.
Not an interesting report.
At least list all thw most successful and disappointing movies.
At least list all thw most successful and disappointing movies.
Coinhead taught us hhat it is crrecltetly seplled "teh" most succsssssflll and isisappnting vimies
I couldn't believe it was a 'record year'. It felt like months would go by between anything worth watching.
the last in house Theater Experience I looked forward to was the Blue Monkeys by Cameron .... in 3D.... oh wait ... they're weren't exactly blue ... AVATAR in 3D
and I'm the one who offered the DEA the REAL AVATAR medicine but they still would rather play in the pigslime and subterfuge amongst the MENA TardClownZ .... why?
because we let them get away with killing the Hippie - killing the Music - Killing Jimi Hendrix - Killing John Lennon - .
Hollywood has gotten so sick I hardly watch movies when they make it to Redbox.
Oh yeah, and I stopped trading stocks 4 or 5 years ago.
Even if the box office was $50Billion, Hollywood book-keeping will ensure the net profit is zero.
Example: Winston Groom's price for the screenplay rights to his novel Forrest Gump included a 3% share of the profits; however, due to Hollywood accounting, the film's commercial success was converted into a net loss, and Groom received only $350,000 for the rights and an additional $250,000 from the studio.
Forrest Gump:
Budget $55 million
Box office $677.9 million
Eddie Murphy called it 'monkey points', where only a fool would accept net profits in their contract. However, only the top of the tree actors et al are entitled to a cut of gross profits.
The music industry is even worse...
Everyone is tired of the mind-numbing, heartless bullshit propaganda being churned out of Hollywood.
Nobody wants to pay hard earned money on mindless drool crap.
right - DVD's are a $1 a piece in the P$$n Shops ! ! !
anyone finish Archer's 5th ??season ????????
bitcheZ be CRaZZeee
next death star blows up suns... just sayin
Does this mean we can all admit starwars was a steaming pile of shit now?
I never walked into a movie theater in 2015.
Why should I?
Fucking 15 bucks for a ticket. Shitty seating. Food? Fucking please. 4 bucks for a little cone of popcorn.
Nasty assholes with their dumb phones tweeting and twatting.
Then, the movie plays; effluvium non stop.
Netflix, Redbox and Bezoszon. Much better value, and I can raid the fridge, pause it, take a dump - then back to the B movie.
Fuck Hollywood anyway; lousy with assholes and liberal fucktards.
Same trend across all media. Publishing the same. Music the same. Businesses are becoming risk averse. It's up to people to invest in themselves and trust on longtail economics to create sustainable fanbase for their work.
Hollywood has become the McDonald's of storytelling. And movies have become so expensive to make, in spite of all the technology, even with a distributive system such as the Internet it would be a very challenging task for an indie film maker to get a cast and crew together and create a sufficiently compelling story of sufficient quality to generate a profit.
It's a shame, because storytelling is the primary means through which we communicate ideas, and to allow that ground to be occupied by the fucking cunts who are running the planet into the dirt without being able to present the alternative narratives is truly tragic.
Sturgeon's Law: 90% of everything is crap.
Movies, Stocks, Novels, ETFs, Bonds, Songs...
......posts
talking about reality...lucid dreaming one get to watch and be in the most unbelievable and unimaginable movies every single night... sometimes 2,3 or more movies per night... And you're not watching CG on a flat screen projection... you're inside the CG and you ARE the CG... and sometimes the movie is a foresight / premonition of things to come in this reality
fortunately, unfortunately, lucid dreaming not traded in the stock market
Sorry to tell you