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This Just Became The Most Important Map In Geopolitics

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Earlier today, in “Mid-East Melee: Sectarian Showdown Looms As Bahrain Cuts Ties With Iran, UAE Recalls Ambassador,” we brought you the latest from the war-torn Mid-East where a worsening spat between Saudi Arabia and Iran threatens to plunge the region into chaos.

Make no mistake, things were already out of control. The conflict in Syria has mushroomed into a global proxy war, Iraq is struggling to drive Islamic State from key cities, and Yemen remains mired in war nine months after the Saudis entered the fray to drive back the Houthis and restore the Hadi government.

Against that backdrop, the region could have done without the events that unfolded over the weekend. By executing prominent Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr, Riyadh has infuriated the Shiite community which took to the streets in protest, even going so far as to firebomb the Saudi embassy in Tehran.

In order to understand the upcoming sectarian strife and in order to fully grasp who belongs to Iran’s sphere of influence and who is loyal to the Saudis, one needs to have a working knowledge of what the Sunni-Shiite split looks like across the region. Because this is set to become the key geopolitical issue in the weeks and months ahead, we thought it an opportune time to present the following map from Goldman which does a nice job of delineating the sectarian split. Note the asterisks which indicate the affiliation of a country’s leadership.

From Goldman

Where are the main sectarian and ethnic divides in the Middle East today? Saudi Arabia and Iran, with their large respective Sunni and Shiite majorities, are generally viewed as two major opposing forces in the Middle East. They lie on opposite sides of an abstract and somewhat contentious demarcation known as the Shiite crescent, an area of Shiite influence stretching from Iran through southern Iraq and into parts of Syria and Lebanon. 

The region’s geopolitical, religious, and sectarian relationships are in reality more dynamic and complex. The conflict in Syria continues to pit anti-government insurgents, including Sunni Islamists, against the Alawite (Shiite) government’s forces and Shiite militias supported by Iran. In Iraq, some Sunnis have felt increasingly disenfranchised under the Shiite-majority government in Baghdad (a relatively new development given Iraq’s long history of Sunni rule). The Islamic State (IS) militant group has exploited this sentiment, particularly in the Sunni-majority areas of northern Iraq. 

How are the different branches of Islam represented in politics? In some countries, such as Saudi Arabia, the rulers adhere to the same branch of Islam as the majority of their citizens. However, this is not always the case. Despite being predominantly Shiite, Iraqis lived under Sunni rulers for much of history, including under the Ottoman Empire and the Ba’thist regime of Saddam Hussein. (Ba’thists are members of the Arab Socialist Ba’th Party, a political party founded in Syria in the 1940s on platforms of Arab nationalism and anti- colonialism. In Iraq, the Ba’thists governed from 1958 until the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003.) The Iraqi Ba’thist regime was secular in name but reserved political influence for the Sunni elite. In a break from its long history of Sunni political dominance, Iraq is currently ruled by a Shiite-majority government centered in Baghdad. Conversely, in Sunni-majority Syria, members of the Shiite Alawite sect have controlled the government since 1970. 

What is the composition of Sunnis and Shiites in the Muslim world today? Sunnis make up the majority of Muslims worldwide – an estimated 85-90%. Sunnis comprise 85% or more of the Muslim populations in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates, and 70-85% in Kuwait, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. Shiites comprise the majority in Bahrain, Iraq, and Azerbaijan (all 60-65% Shiite), as well as in Iran (90-95%), home of the largest Shiite population. Although the Middle East and North Africa region is overwhelmingly Muslim (93%), it is home to only around 20% of Muslims worldwide. The majority – over 60% – lives in the Asia-Pacific region. 

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Mon, 01/04/2016 - 17:15 | 6997171 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Nope.

Aliens. That's all he got. He's desperately fishing for clics to validate his mom's basement lifestyle.

Probably another W.O.W burnout living in a miasma from dirty underwear and stale pork rinds.

 

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 14:46 | 6996450 Sanity Bear
Sanity Bear's picture

So much for my plan to make $185/hour from home like my third cousin's ex-wife's auto mechanic.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 15:02 | 6996518 Baby Bladeface
Mon, 01/04/2016 - 15:30 | 6996659 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Shortest Obama speech I ever saw...

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 15:14 | 6996584 Xredsx
Xredsx's picture

Did you know that the red symbol on the NASA logo is on all the space agencies logo across the globe?

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 15:36 | 6996699 desirdavenir
Mon, 01/04/2016 - 15:37 | 6996701 jwoop66
jwoop66's picture

http://www.marssociety.org/

 

 

They've been around for almost twenty years.  Oh, look!  the link says they do a lot of stuff on Devon Island.   

 

No conspiracy.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 14:40 | 6996412 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

When can we expect the Chinese Sunni Muslims to be activated by the CIA and State Dept?

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 15:54 | 6996711 L Bean
L Bean's picture

Search CIA/Uyghurs. It's been going on since the 70s. Pre-game shows.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 14:41 | 6996424 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Muslims divided by a common religion.  This divide will never heal leading to eternal strife.  Blindly following ancient beliefs brings strife and suffering and destruction.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 14:45 | 6996447 DetectiveStern
DetectiveStern's picture

Go to Belfast. Christos are pretty good at hating each other to.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 15:41 | 6996719 L Bean
L Bean's picture

Again, yet another conflict perpetuated by .gov, with "religion" as the masking veneer/smokescreen.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 16:32 | 6997038 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

I remember that from the 80s yes.

Tue, 01/05/2016 - 01:39 | 6998180 fleur de lis
fleur de lis's picture

Maggie brought Mossad in to teach the Brits how to more effectively shoot the Irish. When the IRA found out that Rafi Eitan was in the middle of operations, they issued an unheard of warning -- if he ever set foot again in Ireland north or south he'd be marked.

The English and Irish could have settled this between themselves long ago without meddling from special interests and NWO malefactors.

Rightly or wrongly, it is this kind of ethnic defiance that has our Borderless Nomadic "leaders" determined to dilute national ethnicities. Overwhelming Europe with angry, culturally unassimilable populations is only a program of national liquidation. The NWO knows that the European leaders do not have the guts to send them back when the ME fighting subsides.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 14:52 | 6996477 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

1. I'm observing that... If it isn't the Muslims fighting each other, or the Christians fighting each other (US 'Civil' War, WW1, WW2, Northern Ireland...), it's Muslims and Christians fighting.

2. Why don't we see Jews fighting each other?  Outside the board-room, that is.  What's their Secret?

3. The last time 'Christians' fought Jews, we never heard the end of it.  The perma-guilt is still spread by the likes of Merkel.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 15:26 | 6996639 MopWater
MopWater's picture

Pretty simple to me, small overall population relative to other religions means they don't exactly have the means to combat one another for a prolonged period or they kill themselves out. They also don't have adjacent territory to control... They've placed themselves on an island of sorts.

That island is claimed to be surrounded by hungry sharks waiting to devour them, so their perpetual fear of death keeps their disputes small...all they need to do is look across the globe and as their good book tells them, they're not far from extinction. The mentality of annihilation would keep most issues as small time.

 

Plus, they get their "adopted homes" to fight for them.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 16:03 | 6996842 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Almost all Jews are very clannish.

 

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 17:23 | 6997200 HowdyDoody
HowdyDoody's picture

Some of them are distinctly mafiaish.

 

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 16:19 | 6996957 CharlieMike
CharlieMike's picture

They're financing it. All of it.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 17:01 | 6997132 Socratic Dog
Socratic Dog's picture

I seem to remember an incident about 2000 years ago.  Killing god's son must be worth something.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 15:08 | 6996560 T.Gracchus
T.Gracchus's picture

Bit like thegreat schism between Catholicism and Orthodoxy. To this day we are brought up, for no good reason, to see Orthodox Christians as less than human.

Get off your high horse and don't think the west is just as partisan.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 15:54 | 6996796 Jstanley011
Jstanley011's picture

A bit alike for sure. Once the RC's and Orthodox start blowing up each other's churches, even more so.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 19:56 | 6997729 Escapedgoat
Escapedgoat's picture

I bet you forgot the Bombing of Yugoslavia that became a little Serbia with all the Demonisation that preceeded that.

I remember Hollywood films that the  baddies were SERBS,  with an occasional Greek.

Also before any war between Israel and the Arabs, there were films that were released and you could predict the coming of the WAR.

 

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 17:57 | 6997078 upWising
upWising's picture

At least DCWPs# don't get involved in these petty little disputes that go on forever.  DCWPs get schismatic over IMPORTANT stuff.

For example, I like the schism between the COCs*  and the DICs**  (not to be confused with the FAGs***).

The COC's broke off from the DICs over how much water to dunk people in.  I think piano playing was part of the dispute as well.   The FAGs were not involved in this, at least this time; the FAGs had their own schism. 

Now water level in the dukin' tub and piana-playin: them's is KILLIN disputes!

DCWPs# = Decent Christian White Peoples
COCs* = Church of Christ-ers  [pronounced "COCKS"]
DICs** = Disciples in Christ-ers  [pronounced "DICKS"]
FAGs*** = First Assembly of God-ers

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 18:02 | 6997361 trulz4lulz
trulz4lulz's picture

Dont forget the WASPS!! Nobody likes a wasp on their cocs.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 22:22 | 6998270 fleur de lis
fleur de lis's picture

@TGracchus -- Speak for yourself. Maybe your kinfolk taught you hatred of the Orthodox Christians but I don't ever remember such things for myself or similar mentions from anyone else. They did not even have a sizable presence in America until after the Berlin Wall etc. Pretty much only the Greeks and Armenians, and no one had conflicts with them.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 14:47 | 6996439 JohnGaltsChild
JohnGaltsChild's picture

Great. So how soon until they wipe each other out and our lives can return to normal?

Looks like a lot of heads are going to be rolling around.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 14:45 | 6996444 DetectiveStern
DetectiveStern's picture

Shiiiiiiiiiiiiite

/Clay Davis

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 14:46 | 6996452 Strelnikov
Strelnikov's picture

It's too bad someone has to win this.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 14:55 | 6996496 Grandad Grumps
Grandad Grumps's picture

Based on the map above, portraying the attack on Assad's Syria as a Shiite vs Sunni conflict just lost ALL credibility.

Next bogus explanation, please.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 15:05 | 6996538 Xredsx
Xredsx's picture

Oil?

Tue, 01/05/2016 - 11:26 | 6999688 Dame Ednas Possum
Dame Ednas Possum's picture

Freedom fries?

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 16:17 | 6996943 AGuy
AGuy's picture

"Based on the map above, portraying the attack on Assad's Syria as a Shiite vs Sunni conflict just lost ALL credibility."

Its complicated:

Syria & Iran are allies against Isreal. KSA needs a NatGas Pipeline through Syria to supply Europe, since its Oil fields are nearing depletion. Russia wants to preserve its EU NatGas Monopoly, thus wants to block the pipeline. Iran wants to see the end of KSA & Israel. Isreal & KSA are alliies against Syria, but stll hate each other. Every nation and group has its own agenda that conflicts with everyone else in the region as well outside of the Middle East.

To simplify this: The Middle East has always been and always will be a cluster-f*ck.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 17:09 | 6997154 Socratic Dog
Socratic Dog's picture

And you have given a shit since when?  Maybe since the price of gas went up in the 70's?

Offhand I'd say it was much less of a clusterfuck before WWI, when Turkey was chased out and the Brits took over, coincident with a sudden shift of the world's economy to complete and total oil dependence.

Or do you drive a Prius?

 

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 18:05 | 6997368 trulz4lulz
trulz4lulz's picture

Whats the plural form of Prious? Is it Pious? In any case rare earth minerals are a nasty business.

Tue, 01/05/2016 - 10:21 | 6999392 smacker
smacker's picture

"Isreal & KSA are alliies against Syria, but stll hate each other"

I don't believe that is true:

"jewish roots of saudi royals"

"saudi royals are crypto jews"

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 14:58 | 6996501 potato
potato's picture

Religion has nothing to do with this. It's just a scapegoat to attribute profit-driven actions to "religious strife."

It is like saying Russian Orthodox Christians are in conflict with the Catholic Czechs and Poles.

Or that Christian Colonist were fighting religious wars against pagan Native Americans.

Bull-sh-it.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 16:25 | 6997000 AGuy
AGuy's picture

"Religion has nothing to do with this. It's just a scapegoat to attribute profit-driven"

Nope, Religion is about 90% of everything. Shia and Sunni are the Islam version of the Hatfield & McCoy Fued (just on a much bigger scale). Each group is fighting for control of the region. Islam is a region of conquest and dominion. Religons pray on the weak minded and motive them to do harm to other or put them in harms way for the king and religons leaders. Take away religion & and faith based political idologies (Marxism, socialisms & alll the other 'isms) and war will end instantly.

BTW: I didn't down vote you.

 

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 14:56 | 6996502 Xredsx
Xredsx's picture

If Britain can't bring peace politically (complicated to explain) then the middle east will be reshaped after this war.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 16:03 | 6996839 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Gets reshaped after every war there.  Been going on for thousands of years.  Not to mention the borders presently definded by the shifting sands.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 14:57 | 6996504 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Israel and U.S. gotta love this.
The whole doctrine since Balfour was divide and conquer.
I'd say the map says that's what's going to go down.

No nukes please.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 14:59 | 6996513 Y4-B_v8
Y4-B_v8's picture

Most of the 20 million Muslims in Russia are Sunni.  The Russian Sunni's arent happy with Russia supporting the Shiite's of Hezbolah, Iran, Assad and the Muslim Brotherhood.  Sounds like it wont take too much more "news" for a Sunni vs Shiite war to begin.  

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 15:07 | 6996551 Baby Bladeface
Baby Bladeface's picture

Guy claims to speak for 20 millions?

"The Russian Sunni's arent happy with Russia supporting the Shiite's of Hezbolah, Iran, Assad and the Muslim Brotherhood."

The proof is, or do you just pococurante ran?

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 17:39 | 6997278 researchfix
researchfix's picture

He knows all, being here for ten weeks.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 15:02 | 6996519 Gold Dog
Gold Dog's picture

Weather forecast;

Mostly Sunni with a chance of the Shiite hitting the fan later on this evening.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 16:34 | 6997045 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

I had to laugh.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 15:07 | 6996549 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

So is Obama Shiite or Sunni.......?

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 15:25 | 6996624 Muse minus Time
Muse minus Time's picture

Hybrid like his roots

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 23:42 | 6998465 bIlluminati
bIlluminati's picture

Hybrid, just like his character in Starcraft 2: Legend of the Void.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 15:32 | 6996666 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

Stoner

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