Dear Mark Zandi... Please Explain This
If Mark Zandi and his "whatever it takes" seasonal-adjusters at ADP are to be believed, the US manufacturing sector added the most jobs in 11 months in December. Our question is simple - with ISM Manufacturing Employment at post-recession lows and US Manufacturing PMIs at post-recesssion lows, and inventories-to-sales ratios at post-recession highs, why are goods-producers hiring at such a frantic pace?
Double-Seasonal-adjustment?
(7 votes)
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What is a Mark Zandi? Is it like a tattoo?
What happens AFTER we’ve reached “Full Employment”?
Are we gonna aim higher, for “110% employment”? ;-)
Looney
You mean you want common sense?
Nobody seriously follows the ADP numbers; everyone knows they're rubbish...
And, of course, Zandi is so far up Obummer's ass he must be up there with Reggie and also must have a problem knowing what to do with Hills and Huma? All of this is part of the End Game isn't it? Where the propoganda is so far "In your face" that they really don't care any longer. It's just a matter of keeping it from collapsing for a few more days/weeks/months....?
Without the mandates of massive government regulation and arbitrary benefit and tax complexity, ADP would be unncessary.
Of course they're gonna pimp for their meal ticket.
Let's see, December holiday hiring, even if you get one check for 1 hour you were counted. So Once these are seasonally adjusted down the estimate of 197k is about right.
Jobs numbers are a lagging indicator. The economy will truly overheat as a recession hits. We've been seeing this with inventory builds in the face of dropping sales and higher manufacturing output.
Also keep in mind that jobs numbers are, like other government numbers, highly subjective and often revised. They can, and often do, go back and revise jobs numbers several months after the fact.
If you are truly paying attention, you'll know when the next recession hits. Transportation index and subprime markets have been giving us the warning since early last year. Wholesale inventories followed soon after.
We live in a 24 hour news cycle so it's hard for people who lack patience to see this play out. Markets operate on a much slower cycle. But when things really get going, they have a habit of sinking rather quickly.
What we are seeing so far this year is a very worrisome sign for the perma-bulls or the BTFD'rs so to speak. These folks are playing a dangerous game at this time.
The leading indicators - those which focus on wholesale manufacturing, transportation (like the Baltic Dry Index), and inventories have all been flashing red for some time. Retail sales have also been warning of an economic decline. People would be best served to take note of these. Also keep in mind that one bad print doesn't really mean squat. It's a series of prints across a number of leading sectors that should force one to take note and adjust accordingly.
The market has a terrible bullish bias. This is not hard to understand when so many of the talking heads on CNBC and Marketwatch paychecks depend on such optomism. No one likes a party pooper. Most people would rather lose money than be bearish. Not sure why this is the case. To be a successful investor, you are best served if you abandon your optimism and your pessimism and become a REALIST.
Bullshit - algorithms follow ADP numbers, and that's all that matters.
How many times have ZH readers asked, "when is it going to collapse?" The lies are just as important at maintaining "consumer confidence" as printing money out of thin air.
Hyper-employment? Yes, that is always the goal. Now excuse me while I continue my job creation plan of breaking store windows.
I hear that North Korea’s Little Dude has tested a device for breaking windows. A lot of windows! ;-)
Looney
Full employment is 33.3% of the people working three jobs.
110% employment is 27.5% of the people working four jobs.
So yeah, probably.
I believe it's a corn-fed hemp plant.
Even the ethanol lobby isn't helping corn these days.
http://tinyurl.com/hmhgp5v
Euthanize Zandi
Enemy Propagandist
Sounds like a stinky fragrance.
isn't that the machine that grooms the ice on a hockey rink ?
Pay no attention to the data behind the curtain.
Zandi mostly gets this stuff right, whereas ZH mostly gets it wrong.
How many more "The Dollar Collapses in 2016!" articles are we gonna have to read?
How many more "The Dollar Collapses in 2016!" articles are we gonna have to read?
LOTS!
Easily explained...A colorful pixelation displayed on a monitor with gorgeous colors of blues, greens and reds with numeric symbols placed in formation to stimulate your vision in hopes of an emotional realization of something......beyond that....it is a mystery.
A MarkZandi (Zandi delusion), or the delusion of Fantasia, is a rare disorder in which a person holds a delusional belief that the economy is actually better than it really is. The syndrome may be related to a brain lesion and is often accompanied by erectile disfunction. Many Obama cabinet members and Federal Reserve Board members have been diagnosed with this illness. There is no known cure.
double seasonal bullshit
They had to have a good number to keep stawks up.
Artificial Intelligence is currently not an attribute of today's microprocessors.
Thus the Algos cannot discern lies or are able to reject conflicting information.
"They had to have a good number to keep stawks up."
Apparently, it wasn't good enough. Please alert the CNBC crew to display, ADP Correction: December Jobs up 2.4 million.
And make it flashy!
Easily explained.
Zandi is a market-maker for side bets on how much a 272K print will move the open. Which is the purpose of ADP.
Next question.
We are going to need a bigger liar.
Hey Tylers. Mr. Zandi's secretary just called and said that he is out sick for the rest of the day and regretfully cannot respond to your photoshopped graphs at this time.
Chipotle??
Hold the Salmonella sauce, please.
Lick my salty nut sac!
only complete idiots entertain the idea that reports like this are true - which means 90% of Americans believe this shit
your behind the times, 96% now!
For a proxy of how many Americans believe this stuff, you can use the amount Americans have lost in the value of their dollar since 1913: 95+%
Yea, but I love those old real dollars.. Indian's and St Gauden's ...
They hired all those BLS Construction numbers guys...just fake it
QE5?
Around my area in Kansas, most manufacturers are very busy.
I know a supervisor that works at one and they are constantly hiring. He claims they've gone up to 3 weeks without getting a single application. In this mfg park there are hiring signs in front of many of the plants and they have ads on the net.. These are mostly $10hr-$12hr entry level jobs with overtime. So not bad considering many don't need experience. Problem is many people that work at these places have several kids, child support, trying to raise a family etc then cry because they don't pay enough. If you're gona have kids and your skillset only pays ten bucks an hour you're just gonna be poor that's all there is to it.
Also, many of these places claim to be busier than they've ever been and the work orders keep piling up. Beats the fk out of me, maybe there's some shit going on under the surface of all this who knows. Maybe some of the bad numbers are from people refusing to take these jobs. When they realize mcdonalds sucks to work at and have their lights shut off perhaps they will get smoked out of their hiding place.
Most of you should know by now i'm not a shill, lol. Just reporting my local area, i'm sure it's not enough to predict how everyone else is doing.
Thx, rs. May I ask in which industry these plants operate (eg, petrochemical, textiles, food)?
The one my friend works at builds garage doors, both res and com. Another one builds fuel componets, for what i'm not sure. The other plants i'm not sure but it would be good info to have. Now, rather this is a backlog, or new orders are still rolling in at high rates I don't have that info. This hiring phase has been the same for the past couple of years so I guess we'll see.
Stats looks the same to me thru Nov. reporting for Kansas -
perhaps Chrystal Meth is still big in Kansas before a local observation or Trolls at work
June2015 July
2015 Aug
2015 Sept
2015 Oct
2015 Nov
2015
Total Nonfarm (3)
1,404.5 1,399.4 1,399.3 1,408.0 1,408.5 (P) 1,405.9
12-month % change
0.9 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.6 (P) 0.5Mining and Logging (3)
9.8 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.7 (P) 9.612-month % change
-7.5 -7.6 -8.6 -8.7 -7.6 (P) -9.4Construction (3)
63.4 63.8 64.3 64.5 65.5 (P) 64.012-month % change
5.8 6.3 8.1 9.0 10.6 (P) 7.0Manufacturing (3)
161.7 161.0 160.2 160.9 161.3 (P) 161.812-month % change
-0.8 -0.5 -1.2 -0.7 -0.7 (P) -0.1Trade, Transportation, and Utilities (3)
265.7 265.3 265.4 267.3 268.1 (P) 266.712-month % change
0.8 0.2 0.0 0.9 0.9 (P) 0.9Kansas' impact on the overall economy is miniscule.
double seasonally adjusted common core
It's the weather....
the weather? maybe--
Zandi made the same mistake in the lead up to the last recession
2 + 2 = 217k
Mark Zandi is a paid shill.
He is a prostitute of his own personal integrity selling out to the highest bidder.
Just like our politicians.
Please quit mentioning this whore.