A Mysterious Death Raises Questions In Russia
Courtesy of Stratfor
A Mysterious Death Raises Questions in Russia
Intrigues within the Kremlin reignited Monday after the chief of Russia's military intelligence service, Igor Sergun, died unexpectedly. Sergun was a relatively unknown figure who kept a very low profile over his 30-year career, despite the fact that his position at the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) of the General Staff of the Armed Forces made him one of the most powerful figures in Russian security.
Sergun came to power in 2011, at a time when the GRU's position was under attack by the Federal Security Service (FSB) and the Foreign Intelligence Service — both of which were attempting to gain control of, or at least influence in, intelligence operations in Russia's borderlands. Sergun was able to consolidate the GRU, fortifying the military intelligence service's position among the security groups.
Russia's various security services have long vied with one another for power. Even though Russian President Vladimir Putin served in the FSB (known at the time as the KGB), he has not always let the agency have its way. Putin has tried to keep a balance among the various services — a difficult feat in a world of intrigue and espionage. That balance has been off for the past two years, mainly because of events in Ukraine. Moscow's failure to anticipate the overthrow of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich and the installation of a pro-West government in Kiev in early 2014 largely fell on the FSB. The service reportedly was restructured by mid-2014, and the GRU gained more responsibility for intelligence inside Ukraine — a humiliation for the FSB. The GRU and FSB wrestled with each other during the remainder of 2014 and all of 2015 over control of ground intelligence in Ukraine. Evidence of the behind-the-scenes struggles could be seen in the turnover of pro-Russian separatist leaders in eastern Ukraine and in sporadic reports from Ukrainian intelligence.
However, the FSB's recent problems go beyond Ukraine. The security service has fought to maintain its position within Russia, particularly Chechnya, and to keep one of its most lucrative assets, Rosneft, afloat financially. The FSB's problems could be connected to Putin's mysterious disappearance in March 2015 and to the assassination of opposition leader Boris Nemtsov.
Recent developments provide few details about the current state of the power struggle. Four months ago, rumors circulated in Russian media that one of the GRU's biggest backers, Vladislav Surkov, lost the Ukraine portfolio once again. Surkov, alongside Sergun, had been instrumental in implementing Russia's so-called hybrid warfare strategy in eastern Ukraine and in coordinating the separatist leaders throughout the year. Over the weekend, a Ukrainian intelligence source claimed that the FSB was back in eastern Ukraine working with the separatist leaders. This would indicate a strengthening of the FSB's position.
Against this backdrop, the unexpected death of the head of one of the FSB's biggest rivals raises a number of questions. First is the circumstance of Sergun's death. The Russian government said he had a heart attack in Moscow on Jan. 4, but a Stratfor source heard a report that he died on New Year's Day in Lebanon. If the report that he died in Lebanon is true, it raises questions about what Sergun was doing in a country that is a hotbed for the world's intelligence services and why the Kremlin would cover up his death abroad.
A second question is whether Russian operations in Ukraine will change. Sergun was allegedly one of the designers of Russia's hybrid warfare strategy there, but the FSB could continue with the same strategy. It is also not clear whether the FSB and the Russian military would be able to continue coordinating in eastern Ukraine if the Russian military's intelligence unit weakens or splinters.
Moreover, there is the question of whether the GRU can remain unified under a new leader, particularly with other intelligence services vying for influence. Russian media have already started floating rumors of who will replace Sergun — a curious development, since he allegedly died just a day ago — and various Kremlin watchers have even suggested non-military candidates who have personal ties to Putin. If Putin promotes an ultra-loyalist over a military replacement, it could indicate that he is attempting to bring another security group more firmly under his control, adding another layer of protection for the president should the FSB or any other group grow more disgruntled.
In the months ahead, it will be important to see if or how the FSB takes advantage of the shake-up in the GRU brought about by Sergun's death. The state of the struggle among Russia's security services is of great concern to the Kremlin, which is nervous about the potential for growing unrest in the country ahead of parliamentary elections. It is one of the FSB's primary tasks to monitor and defuse such tensions, but the FSB has taken on many other roles as it has attempted to gain more power. Putin is likely also concerned about the power struggle in the lead-up to the next presidential election in 2018, particularly if he is seen as taking sides in the dispute. This fight for power within the Kremlin has the potential to be one of Russia's — and Putin's — more dangerous challenges in the years ahead.
(21 votes)
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Grasping at any straw.
Can't tell if that stink is BS or filled diapers among TPTB.
Here is another news source. WhatReallyHappened.com posted this two days ago...
We won't know the facts in his death (could be both of them died with a beautiful hooker or secretary straddling the pelvis) or perhaps just poor health... But just like Lesin (trouble in pairs) might have been the Anglo-American establishment thinking they could somehow wear down the Russian resolve some more after what they've done in Eastern Ukraine with the "Revolution" in February 2014.
If I had to comprise a list for the Spetsnaz elites
1. Vicky Noodleman and hubby "Booby" Kagan
2. John Brennan
3. Winter Soldier "Donut Hole" Kerry
This is all getting very entertaining in a very deranged psychopathic way!
Let the "whacking" from the other end commence and make no haste!!!
I always chuckle when the neocons and sheeple point out Putin's KGB background but fail to mention Papa Shrubs role with the CIA.
You forgot to put the "pedophile" between the "Papa" and the "Shrub"...
Putting it mildly... Those Langley folks can get mighty eccentric!
Not eccentric, just full blown satanic.
Between reading 1984, watching 'Conspiracy of Silence', and seeing the OKC + Embassy bombings go down, it changed the way I look at the world 'just a tad'.
Not to mention Jebs background in South American banking (Money Laundering) during the Iran Contra affair. We really could use some more investigative journalism on the Ties between the Clintons and the Bushes involving Iran Contra. CIA finger prints all over it.
Or that Jeb married into one of the biggest Columbian drug families.
Or, the profitable side business that Zapata Oil operated using all those Gulf of Mexico offshore oil platforms.
Or, "Arkancide".
Oil and Blow... They go well together!!!
I'm thinkin the CIA needs to change the motto to this instead!
"Oil and blow...the spice must flow!"
Isn't his wife Mexican? I'm just wondering about the Colombian connection.
Somebody tried that once-
http://www.constitution.org/col/octocaso.htm
don't forget jeb's involvement in the largest medicare fraud in history that he got away with scott free.
They're not saying it to criticize him. They're making a point on how he's handled the agency while in power.
The ruble is rubble. Almost 75/dollar now.
Just as well they buy weapons and pay their forces in rubles.
StumbLebum sounds like another sore loser Hasbara(t).
So obvious too.
So how is the Hyrvnia doing, LOL?
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/032415/worst-performing-curre...
By the way, idiot, nearly ALL global currencies are down relative to the USD.
43% inflation in Ukraine.
https://z5h64q92x9.net/proxy_u/ru-en.en/tvzvezda.ru/news/vstrane_i_mire/...
Support for Porkyshanko based on Gallup poll.
https://irrussianality.files.wordpress.com/2016/01/gallup3.jpg
Porkoshanko's popularity - 22% in UkroNazistan, 11% in Donbass, and 7% in the south (Kherson, Dnepropetrovsk, Odessa oblasts). It is illuminating that he is less popular in the south than in Donbass [blockade of Crimea bankrupting local farmers maybe], given he is murdering Donbass civilians left right and center. Maybe the south should grow a pair, kick out the like of Azov and Prav Sektor, and join Donbass. That would leave a totally landlocked rump UkroNazistan.
How's the Hyrvnia doing? Let's check, since we have that internet thingy...
RUB/USD = .013
UAH/USD = .043
So, in answer to your question, it's doing about 3.5 times better than the currency of your lord and master, the Russian Rubble.
Compare the following Statistical Series:
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/indicators
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ukraine/indicators
Any objective observer cannot fail to draw the conclusion that Russia is outperforming the Ukraine by most measures. What is really sad is the Ukraine should be richer than Russia, but is not due to 25 years of gross economic mis management and theft. If the Ukies ever want to thrive, they must destroy their oligarchic class and move forward on an independent path, free of the EU/USSA and Russia.
So petro-bereft Ukraine should economically outperform the second largest petro-kleptocracy on the planet?
What is really sad is that natural resource rich Russia has a GDP equivalent to Canada which only has 1/5th of the human capital but an equivalent degree of resources and probably a worse climate. Shame on them.
But I would be happy to see people everywhere be free. I just don't see why replacing a bought-and-paid-for Russian puppet government with a Western puppet government is a setback rather than a null move, while you contend that it is. Cut all the strings, including the ones from Moscow, and let them advance to their own national destiny.
The value of 75 to the US$ is something the Russian Government is probably pretty relieved about. Since mid 2014 the ruble has gone from 36 to 75, to a very great extent protecting Russia from the crude drop from 100 to 35 (all figures approximate).
Unlike those countries with currencies pegged to the $, like say Saudi or the US who have been really badly hit. Shame isn't it :)
CAD isn't pegged either. Any pontification on what happened there and how much they're liking the drop?
"The real question is whether Russian operations in the Ukraine will change"...
Russia needs to do nothing. The Ukie Kiev puppets are doing a fantastic job of looting and destroying their country without Putin's help.
For example, 750,000 Euros donated by the EU to fund the refurbishment of a hospice for terminally ill cancer patients in Vinograd, Transcarpathia, West Ukraine have disappeared without trace.
https://z5h64q92x9.net/proxy_u/ru-en.en/www.e-news.su/news/92248-ukraina...
Thats about David Millibands annual salary as part of his role leading a "charity". Donations please.. just £3 per month.... call his number..
I guess he used Vlad's name in vane and was stuck down. That's a big no no.
Define vane: a thin, flat or curved object that is attached to a wheel and that moves when air or water pushes it
Standard Disclaimer: You Keep Using That Word, I Do Not Think It Means What You Think It Means...
I want you to try an experiment. Go to the nearest wall. Step back about a foot. Lean forword until your forehead touches the wall. With a magic marker, mark that spot with an "X". Stand up straight. Lean forward until your forehead touches the "X" again.
Repeat this exercise with ever increasing velocity and force until you knock yourself out. Your blood loss may vary.
LOL. Subsitute the spelling "vain" for those who can't see the forest for the trees.
Has the childish Oblahblah and his NPR mouthpiece blamed Putin yet?
30 year career and Russia is at the top of its game right now which means he was likely a large reason for their surge in geo-political power.
A short biography: He made significant improvements to Russia's militart intelligence capabilities
"Igor Sergun became its head, while being brilliantly well-read person who knows absolutely strategic issues that was appreciated by the leadership of the country and his colleagues at the Ministry of defence."
https://z5h64q92x9.net/proxy_u/ru-en.en/bmpd.livejournal.com/1662381.html
Every time when I read an article from Stratfor I wonder is Stratfor a CIA little brother or a banal tabloid?
CIA funds many bland tabloids, so both probably.
Given his line of work, the proximate cause of his death is not really all that mysterious.
And the toll for mental health, I think, is high.
Farking Stratfor. Jeebus.
if he didn't have a heart attack, maybe Kiev sent some assassins
Nah, they would have sold the weapons on the black market and run off with the proceeds.
They'd probably have got lost first
"a Stratfor source heard a report that he died on New Year's Day in Lebanon"
Stratfor is CIA. As for his death. His age fits perfectly with heart attack. His face betrays smoking, alcohol use, over eating. I would be surpriased if he didn't drop from a heart attack.
That said, if internal power struggels begin to be settled by killings, both sides HAVE TO KNOW, that what you do one day and make acceptable, can be done to you next day. Opening that can of worms is very rare, because blowback would be extreme.
Why does the CIA just not kill Putin? They know why.
WELL thats how western presses spin facts .
THE CIA can't kill Putin......they would have no one to pick up the failed pieces of the obama disasterous middle east policy and then they would have to actually take some action against ISIS just to keep the game going
You mean Archduke Vladimir?
Jack
report
source
Stratfor
Zero Hedge
hearsay (information received from other people that one cannot adequately substantiate)
nothing like official hasbara. if the zionazis are responsible for this i am sure putin will respond. otherwise, this is nothing but unfortunate for the family.