Stocks Plunge To 3-Month Lows Amid Crude Carnage, Chinese Currency Collapse
Ok to summarize - China has lost control of its currency (whether intentionally or not) and that is forcing carry unwinds en masse; North Korea tests a nuke; European inflation disappoints; US services economy collapses (follows manufacturing's lead and another pillar of hope is destroyed); Crude crashes to fresh decade plus lows; The Fed offers nothing in the way of hope for growth (or puts); Bernanke says not to expect Fed to save stocks; World Bank cuts global growth outlook... But apart from that, everything is awesome!!!
Before we start, this happened!! Bloodbath in Yuan (offshore Yuan near record lows)...
On the day, a wild ride... with the ubiquitous closing ramp
Deja Deja Vu all over again...
On the week - year-to-date - it appears bad news is bad news - let's just hope China doesn't open tonight eh?
Note that evwerything but Nasdaq is red since the end of QE3...
Post-FOMC, everything was chaotic... Gold flat, bonds up and stocks rescued...
We do note the VIX-manipulation to move stocks around...
Stocks are catching down to their breadth-based reality...
And it's looking a lot like August again...
Energy stocks plunged back to reality... who could have seen that coming?
Financials are catchiung down to credit again...
FANTAsy stocks were mostly lower but NFLX was ripped higher as CEO Reid Hadtings spewed some more bullshit... #netflixeverywhere - seriously!!
AAPL had a mysterious massive buyer as it broke $100...
Treaaury yields plunged with 7Y back under 2% and 30Y back under 3%... on the week 2s30s is now 6bps flatter
The USD slipped lower after FOMC Minutes but is brioadly flat for 2 days (and up on the week)...as AUD collapses and JPY surges...
Crude was clubbed, copper limped lower but PMS rallied further...
Carnage...
WTI Crude crashes to its lowest level since Dec 08's lows at $32.40...
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: We have seen this pattern of money flow chaos before... Outflows surge from China, send liquidity needs spiking, which bleeds over into Saudi stress (petrodollar?), causing unwinds in major equity markets (thanks to deleveraging of carry trades) in China and then US stocks...
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I bought AAPL - SORRY. haha
It appears basd upon commentary from the Fraudters themselves, that they want to let some air out of the equity bubble in hopes of avoiding a massive crash. Multiple Fed governors have been out flapping their mouths about how they wont support equity prices and how rate hikes are coming. Problem is, the theater is full, all of folks need to get out on the first sight of smoke.
So they ramp the close every day to give the false impression of real demand. We need to demand audits of these corrupt sons-a-bitches now, and demand jail time for them once we are able to document this market manipulation.
No jail time.
Send them into ISIS camps that they created. For the Clinton's; solitary confinement for life with Bill and Hillary together at last in the same confinement.
Germany's leading power company RWE is trading at 11 Euros with a P/E of 6.9 and paying 9% dividend.
Will Germans stop using power? Will they stop paying for power? NO!
There are bargains to be had BUT it trades in EUR and even if the EUR is not the RUB, even 9% safe play dividend aren't so sweet if EURUSD keeps going down.
If they'd burn their immigrants, they'd lower their overhead for at least a couple of days.
LOL! Jethro. Made me puke my coffee but I think you are onto something!
I think you just talked yourself out of it...
you're probably right
EON is trading at 8.50 and paying 6% dividend
these are solid performers but in EUR
is the EUR going to survive the year when basically all other EU concepts are blowing up RIGHT NOW?
EUR might not survive, but the average German citizen will be delighted to see the DEM back.
Not as if they got a lot of choice about losing the DEM in the first place...
Watson
Just a small detail.. RWE owns multiple nuclear power plants and frau Merkel shit her pants when fukushima blew up and promised to fase oiut all nuclear power.. Who is gonna finance 200000 wind power plants and all of Bavaria covered with chinese solar panels.. Clue: not merkel
Look at the bright* side: The EUR already dropped lots, and you can buy it cheap with the strong USD.
If, for argument's sake, the EUR drops by a lot more, then you'll be fine also, as the stock will be priced in DEM. Everything is Awesome!
* Pun intended, seeing that it's a Power company
Lots of debt. They may stop paying dividends.
My best guess:
The real H-Bomb is Friday
This is August all over again. Friday will be the biggest squeeze in history, short muppets will be carried off on stretchers
In two weeks everyone will have forgotton this crash, just like 2 weeks after the Aug crash everything was awesome again.
I still have stuff open but I am not entering any new positions long or short till Monday.
You will not know the economy has completely collapsed until the day you buy something at the store and the debt card is rejected.
My guess as well; I am slowly entering some call positions and exited a little early on the puts, but it is guessing game to a large extent.
Yawn... wake me up when the Civil War starts. No 3:30 bounce/ manipulation?
"China has lost control of its currency (whether intentionally or not) and that is forcing carry unwinds en mass"
I LOVE Carry Unwinds! Unwind those fuckers!
China has not lost control; those are the reports...they have at least 30K tonnes of Gold, no foreign debt and a massive industrial base verses what we have...think long and hard on that and on that.
whether intentionally or not
China has massively overbuilt their infrastructure and manufacturing capacity in a (temporarily) successful attempt to provide jobs and upward mobility for their teeming masses. The amount of credit extended to dubious enterprises is mind blowing.
The world is awash in over capacity - commodities (including oil), manufacturing, computer storage, shipping, you name it, all financed by easy credit.
Someone is not going to get paid.
Global Negative interest rates beginning a race to the bottom. The Big Short is out there, when does it all blow up?
Who knows? I've been waiting so long for it to happen that I won't believe it when it happens.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlVmdGiAH2A
Well we fulfilled Richard Russell's rule of BIG NUMBERS (may he rest in Peace)
S&P below 2000
DOW below 17000
NAZ below 5000
so now what? IF RR was still around I'd ask him but....
As we all know the bad news is good news; I smell a short squeeze coming to a market nearby. Got to have that "January Effect" to keep the illusion alive, else this thing is ready to truly implode on itself. Wait till earnings are reported; should be so bad that the market hits new highs...I'm not holding my breath because at some point it breaks and the smart money has been exiting since Q1 of 2015 at increasing rates through Q3 & Q4.
"Iran and India have announced that they intend to settle all oustanding crude oil payments in rupees, as part of a joint strategy to dump the dollar and trade instead in national currencies. The Indian Express reports:"
Dollar Hegemony and the Right to Print Infinite Dollars is the absolute foundation of American exceptionalism.
The proportion of trade conducted in $US has - surprisingly to my mind - gone down only very slightly over the last 10 years or so.
+100 for "Dollar Hegemony and the Right to Print Infinite Dollars is the absolute foundation of American exceptionalism."
Truer and vital words are seldom spoken.
And that, folks, is the reason why the US empire absolutely needs its MISC (Military-Industrial-Surveillance-Complex): to enforce the usage of the USD, by any and all means necessary. By Cajoling, Blackmailing, Bribing, Election-Funding, Fighting, Invading, Killing. And that's why the hundreds of DOD bases and CIA offices, and NSA listening posts are needed all over the world, to implement Big Bro's will over everyone.
That makes the Iranian Oil Bourse rcv compensation for Petrol Exports in CNY, JPY, EUR, RUB, BRL, CHF, and INR.
Advantage IRN.
Too late for the KSA/USA/ISR/GBR PetroDollar/PoundSterling Cluster-Muster_of_Hegemons. The Bourse is up and running; and now NationStates with "Nuclear Muscle" are not just Trading in "it" - they're about to establish a NETWORK of non-USD Bourses along the Silk Road, around the Eurasian Continent.
No wonder KSA is pumping away. Bombing IRN won't work anymore. The Kingdom might just have the American and African Markets left - can't allow North American Shale to take away what's left...
intraday business aside...
the bear market is here. bob farrell's rule #8: there are three stages to a bear market (don't even argue).
1. sharp down
2. reflexive rebound
3. drawn-out fundamental downtrend
don't be foolish. insiders are short and the fed is acting accordingly. queue the deutsche sacrifice in a couple months and watch this f**ker really unwind
4. One more up-leg for the January Effect...then the last one out turns off the HFT Algo's and "it's gone".
Burn baby burn.
Still considerably overvalued, even in this NON-GAAP world...
From any valuation approach you take, there is so much value here - don't miss out!
Ok - so what are we looking at here? What's the bottom line?
Storm Clouds Gathered; waiting for the heavens to open up?! You asked :)
but 2y Italian negative BTP bonds still out there, over 2 trillion euros in debt, these crazy bonds have to be the biggest bubble out there
Netflix now available in every shack in India and every hut in Zimbabwe
With exapansion into all these 3rd world countries that don't have running water and slaves sell dried figs on a rock to earn a living . they can expect to add at least 12 more subscribers
We bounced off a major support level on the weekly's ES chart at the close. The question is, can the bulls make a higher high? They haven't been able to since the fall ramp off the August lows. Until they do so, I wouldn't try a swing trade long in this market for a bonus of finding true love...
http://tos.mx/s4EgGf
You buy stocks because there too big to fail....
I got a feeling this is the year it hits the fan, even though my girlfriend is starting to look at me funny. hahahaha
Mere noise.
Wake me up when the Dow drops 10K over the same timeframe and/or N. Korea has sent a thermonuclear missle to Cali.
Looks like all the countries of the world are at the "wailing wall" ...time to take some medication.... I recommend some depression medicine...oh no...did I just give the answer on where the markets are headed... or maybe its beheaded...time to catch up on some of my VHS tapes on being a "prepper"... honey... have you finished digging out our bomb shelter?
Meanwhile in Canada & Houston ...
CALGARY – TransCanada Corp. has filed a US$15-billion free-trade agreement challenge and a constitutional lawsuit against the United States government over its rejection of the Keystone XL pipeline.
http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/transcanada-corp-files-law...
Figured it would be all awesome by now. hope everyone's selling the top and waitin to buy back at 666.
You mean 444 ???
ok I'm calling it/ Although many may think ZH'ers have lost out on the last 5 yrs you would be wrong, I am short all the way down. GL.