A Warning For The Bears: Gartman Calls It "This Is Now A Fully-Fledged Bear Market"
Just when you thought it was safe to go short...
Yesterday stock prices here in the States did little other than mark time, and following the material selling earlier this week the fact that the best that the market could do was this is ominous indeed. We used the term “bear market” yesterday in our commentary for the first time in a very, very long while and we used it with intent, for in the past we’ve often said that we had turned “neutral” of stocks noting that in a bull market the most bearish position one can have is neutral.
This stems from our simple, but effective, notion that in a bull market there are only three positions one can and should have: Aggressively long; modestly long or neutral. But this is no longer a bull market. This is now a fully-fledged bear market and we do not say that readily, nor lightly. Nonetheless, given that our International Index made its high late last May at 11,186 and is now 1,888 points or 16.9% below that level and has been down for just over seven months, it is time to face this harsh reality.
This is a bear market. Trend lines that have held in the past are failing. Lower lows and lower highs are more and more common. Fewer and fewer stocks are trading within 2-5% of their highs and more are trading 15-20% below those highs and the Advance/Decline lines here and abroad are collectively weak and weakening.
* * *
We are, for the first time in years suggesting… indeed, we are stating it rather clearly… our belief that the global bull market that began in the spring of ’09 ended, in retrospect, in the very first days of summer of last year. We shall, henceforth, look to err bearishly of equities, holding long positions in some equities, but erring on balance to the short side of the global equity market.
Just to put this "call" in context, this is what Gartman said on December 29, exactly one week ago, on CNBC:
"In the end the question will be, will crude be able to go below $35 per barrel? I think not."
Oil is now at $34.38.
(12 votes)
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don't panic yet boys. cramer and his band of village idiots still saying "buy the dip"
Well that is wonderful news. I'm long TZA. with stops in, but Gartman calling the bear was scaring me. As long as Cramer is still cheerleading, I'm probably ok. (Remember his famous "Do NOT sell Bear Stearns" rant? Still on you tube - funny as hell - three days later it was gone.)
But even worse, UBS is now saying Bear Market, buy gold.
Yes, a big house is saying "Buy Gold"? Fuck, the sky is falling...
Oil to $30, fuckers! Instead of looking at the price of oil, take a closer look at the calendar. Even if oil bottomed today, January 6, oil stocks would still plunge when Q4 earnings are reported in early February. Maybe March will be time to buy oil stocks. It's hard to predict the future.
20,000 DOW, here we come, ride em Bronco Billy!
Easy if he was always wrong that would be useful so you all are getting ahead of yourselves.
I put this in the category of GS when they say something, sometimes it's true just to keep you guessing.
Gee, I always hated that expression "the exception that proves the rule". But this could be that exception... the one and only time Gartman is correct. Wow!