Bloodbath
You know it's bad when...
THERE IT IS 7pm ET pic.twitter.com/ufjczF1cYY
— Ivan the K™ ? (@IvanTheK) January 7, 2016
But, but, but... Fed... FANGs... Decoupled... Services... Netflix... Unicorns... Cramer...
The day started badly (as China devaluation stress crushed carry trades and sucked liquidity out of the world, slamming USDJPY, US stocks, bond yields, credit, crude, and copper lower)...no late-day rally today!
*CANADA STOCKS ENTER BEAR MARKET AFTER 20% DROP FROM SEPT. 2014
All that hope as China lifted its circuit-breaker rule and crude briefly rallied... but stocks carnaged back to overnight lows late in the day... Another bounce into the European close then SELL MORTIMER SELL into NYMEX close
Since the start of December, it's ugly...
The NASDAQ is rapidly losing its post-QE3-End gains...
"Policy Error" Much?
"No Brainer" is down 28% from its highs...*APPLE CLOSES AT $96.45; FIRST CLOSE BELOW $100 SINCE OCT. 2014
FANTAsy stocks tumbled deep into the red for the year (yes even NFLX!!) Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Tesla, and Alphabet... all red...
Financials caught down to credit...But just keep talking up NIM and their "no brainer"-ness
VIX pushed above 25...
VIX term structure inverted...
Credit suggests more to come..
Stocks are "getting there"...
Catching down to breadth...
Away from the excitement of stocks...
Treasury yields tumbled further (some selling pressure as CNH defense suggested China selling)...
The USD Index tumbled back into the red for the week as JPY strength continued...
USDJPY closes at 11 month lows...
Commodities split between growth and safety as PMs rallied and crude, copper crumbled...
as Gold and Silver Surged...
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: What did you think would happen?
@federalreserve what did yoiu think would happen? pic.twitter.com/psI62Uszcr
— Not Jim Cramer (@Not_Jim_Cramer) January 7, 2016
(33 votes)
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He's the secretary of the deception department. Screwtape works for him:
http://www.amazon.com/The-Screwtape-Letters-C-Lewis/dp/0060652934
Do you posters that say 'Death to the money changers!!!' just follow the markets as a hobby or do you not consider trading and investing money changing?
Trump will become the first Trillionaire.
Ooops hahaha.
Gold miners are having a great week!
Better get you a paid off house.... or you'll have to fight in my basement or provide 'favors' to the other guests.
The BTFD'ers are in the HURT LOCKER now, for sure.
The wives are going to be bitching all weekend.
The husbands reviewing holiday credit statements.
If you're walking along Wall Street tomorrow be sure and stay away from windows and under something solid. Projectile Banker Launchings are imminent.
JUMP YOU FUCKERS, JUMP...
Good to see another optimist.
Perhaps I should go sell nailguns on on a street corner at Wall St?
Sell those "innoculations" to them for $1000 a pop.
The pie-in-the-sky gravy train of sunshine and lollypops has been temporarily suspended.
They'd better not report any of this on mainstream media. Maybe they can find some exciting weather phenomenon to put on instead. That way, the sheeple will stay happy and the Ponzi can collapse more slowly.
Am I the only one who's noticed that the minute the shit hit the fan with the economy, every single article about the Bundy standoff in Oregon just dissapeared?
That's convenient.
Coverage is a function of newsworthiness. Just like football.
Also, it looks like there might be a peaceful resolution after all, at least until a few people disappear a week later.
I'm loving it, burn baby burn...
I don't mean to pick an argument, but the S&P 500 is still 292% higher than the financial crisis lows. It really isn't burning yet. So far, it's just the run-of-the-mill consolidation that everyone was used to before money was free.
I'll stipulate the media likes to make it seem more "crisis-like" to gather eyeballs, but I'm not convinced this is the beginning of the necessary washout.
Buy the dip, dipshit.
I did some googling to learn about volatility term structure and found a good one:
Does that really encourage irresponsible risk-taking or am I just too stoned?
"Does that really encourage irresponsible risk-taking or am I just too stoned?"
Well, you can't win the lottery without buying a ticket!
After 8 years of intervention I can't help but think that any market turmoil is no longer just happening... rather it is allowed to happen. And likely for a well-thought through reason. And it will be allowed to happen for a while until... it won't be allowed to happen any longer and will get stabilized and moved to where they want it to be...
This is surreal. I have no fear (being 100% in cash at every close does help though).
Negative interest rates are a lock.
Not in FRNs...
SDRs, maybe.
Still need to survive that transition however.
Market metaphors, such as "bull" and "bear," are not precise terms. But here's how I think of the ones related to carnage:
"Under the revised rules approved by the SEC in 2012, market-wide circuit breakers kick in when the S&P 500 Index drops 7 percent (Level 1) [a bloodletting], 13 percent (Level 2) [a bloodbath], and 20 percent (Level 3) [wholesale slaughter] from the prior day's close."
By those standards, we haven't even had a good bloodletting yet.
Monday, I closed my SPY puts too early. I'm used to the BTFD stealing my earnings, so I sold with just a tidy 30% profit, expecting a PPT meltup. Oh well, I'll wait to STFP (sell the fucking peak) later on, maybe.
Today, silver dissapointed me; I just knew it would ramp to at least $16. I still made money, but not serious money like I had hoped.
Tonight, CNBC is dusting off the 7PM special "Markets in Turmoil" series. I'll have my popcorn ready. I can't wait to hear what the "experts" have to say about all this bullshit. I'm sure I'll crack a rib!
They've spent over a year loading the boat with shorts, and will be talking their book I imagine. Thanks for the heads-up btw, ought to be interesting. Good trading to you.
I had to watch Kraemer pre-open this morning, funny as all heck. Oh, and I don't put the sound on.
lmao!
SPY puts massively overpriced.
Been slowly loading the boat on 10-15% out-of-the-money XLF puts to 2016/17 for the last year. Cost a fracton and same bang for the buck. Also, when things get squirrelly and counterparty risk starts bubbling up, the financials will get hardest and first (seeing it now).
Have eaten a 50% loss on premium bleed at the low this past year, but back to even today. Best part.....seems geared about 10-to-1 right now and convexity is ramping it up.
Has my patience finally paid off or will the parasites at the Eccles use my tax dollars to ram it back up my ass with QE4...?
If it IS a new bear market, there will be wicked rallies that kill a lot of shorts and make people believe it's all over. You can reload on better prices then. Sell into panics. Rinse, repeat.
For now china is trading up 2%. Might be that rally starts friday or monday. I imagine a lot of traders will want to be flat over this weekend.
Tell me when the market goes down 30%. That's a crash.
I love how everything is blamed on China. Yeah right. $19T in debt, deficits for as long as you can possibly see. Look at the transports, a good leading indicator. These fuckers tried to prop this up til Obie left office but it ain't gonna hold
In case you missed it: Fisher: The Fed is at Fault
He understates the case of course. In addition, the Fed has wiped out savers (and with them the capital base of the country), blown the biggest bond bubble in the history of planet earth, and made pricing for risk impossible. Not to mention that the Fed has conjured the perfect storm, where a 25 basis point increase in interests rates, with the prospect of three or four more, will crash the equities markets but won't save the dollar.
"Hold onto your butts." -Ray Arnold, Jurassic Park
Looks like the same pre-earning reports set-up to me; we will find out within the next 6 trading days. I believe we have one more leg up with lower highs before the plug is pulled...we are running very low on time..save God.
I don't know who makes up the picture collages but I love them.
The FED... snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
I hope you have your stacks in order.
Time to back up
Scott 1000 is going to feel like Charmin; not a good scenario for the pampered.
Bernanki avoided explaining that following the fed-inspired, 5 year equity bubble wealth-effect comes the 5 year poverty effect. These monthlies reveal the breadth and depth of the upcoming bloodbath, not always evident on Boobberg hourly-daily terminal analysis:
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=INDICES&p=m1
It's sure looking a lot like 2008 right now. Buckle up, it might get a whole lot more bumpy from here.
Market is still overpriced. Its got another 25% to go before it comes in line with fundamentals
Agree.
When the price of Gold price exceeds the S&P index price ... maybe time to look at dipping the toe into high dividend stocks with good balance sheets and cash to debt ratios.
Bloodbath.
What an interesting word (metaphor) to describe what is essentially voluntary speculators' loss.
Not a fucking single real drop of blood has been spilled.
Real human blood spilt in the name of greed and capital, in murderously massive quantities is never called a bloodbath.
Orwell was right.
Thinking about going "Galt". No goddam iPhone, or any other bullshit, one well used car, small condo, total expenses under $1500 / month. Pay minimum taxes, take SS early and live off that.
Just fuck this stuff. High speed trading with fucking lazers to shave nanoseconds off the time it takes to execute a trade? Fucking ridiculous.
The whole thing needs to burn to the ground, with a more reasonable market to rise from the ashes.
OK. Enough of the rant. Only value stocks (XOM for example) will survive the next market moves. Yes, my fellow bitches, PE really does matter.
Take a look at CEF's trading at historical discounts to NAV. 2016 has presented some crazy values in this arena for those who wish to play.
That's what I'm trying to do. I don't have an iphone, have one well-used car, and I don't buy anything unless I absolutely need it. But my house is a money-pit.
I am with you, but Galt's Gulch probably has to have a golf course for it to work for me.