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In Q4 When 282,000 Average Jobs Were Supposedly Added, The Atlanta Fed Sees GDP At A Paltry 0.8%

Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/08/2016 12:58 -0500



 

Just over two hours ago, following the latest disappointing wholesale sales and trade, using the Atlanta Fed's GDP methodology, we calculated just where the regional Fed would trim its famous "nowcast" estimate to:

Moments ago, that's precisely what the Atlanta Fed's revised Q4 GDP estimate was lowered to. To wit:

Latest forecast — January 8, 2016

 

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2015 is 0.8 percent on January 8, down from 1.0 percent on January 6. The forecast for the contribution of inventory investment to fourth-quarter real GDP growth declined 0.2 percentage points to -0.8 percentage points after this morning's wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

 

Evolution of Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP forecast

So, to summarize: in a quarter in which GDP rose by 0.8%, and was likely negative when excluding the benefits - yes, that's right, benefits - of the warm winter, the same way last year's "harsh winter" supposedly subtracted from GDP, the US added on average over 270,000 workers per month.

Just when you thought the Chinese Department of Truth couldn't be topped...

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Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:31 | 7017920 unionbroker
unionbroker's picture

just wait untill they start adding the Uber and Lyft drivers and delivery people .The unemployment  rate will go to 0

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:34 | 7017935 VegasBob
VegasBob's picture

So we've become a nation of minimum wage workers who sell each other overpriced houses, cars, iGadgets, coffee, burgers, pizza, and cheap plastic crap from China.

And we call it an economic recovery.

What else is new?

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:38 | 7017955 csmith
csmith's picture
"When 282,000 Average Jobs Were Supposedly Added"

That's the problem...they were "below average" jobs...

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:57 | 7018025 HoserF16
HoserF16's picture

According to My back of the Napkin computations say we're in  a -6.8 GDP Recession. Their Napkin is wet and wrong...

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 15:22 | 7018480 Berspankme
Berspankme's picture

For such a roaring employment market, I sure run into a lot of pissed off people

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 16:37 | 7018909 Herdee
Herdee's picture

How many fast food joints does a guy have to work at to make a living in the U.S?

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