December Jobs Soar by 292K, Smash Expectations But Average Wages Post First Drop Since 2014

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As we noted in the jobs preview, only a super strong number had any chance of prompting a market reaction, and sure enough, the just announced December print of +292,000 smashed expectations of +200K, surging from last month's upward revised 252K, while October was revised to a massive 307,000, a net addition of 50K over the last two months.

 

So time for another rate hike, right?

Not so fast: as usual, the fly in the ointment was a well-familiar one: wages simply did not grow, and with Wall Street expecting a 0.2% increase in average hourly wages, in December not only was there no wage growth, but in fact, average hourly earnings posted a tiny decline from $25.25 to $25.24.

From the report:

The number of unemployed persons, at 7.9 million, was essentially unchanged in December, and the unemployment rate was 5.0 percent for the third month in a row. Over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons were down by 0.6 percentage point and 800,000, respectively. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for blacks declined to 8.3 percent in December, while the rates for adult men (4.7 percent), adult women (4.4 percent), teenagers (16.1 percent), whites (4.5 percent), Asians (4.0 percent), and Hispanics (6.3 percent) showed little or no change. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially unchanged at 2.1 million in December and accounted for 26.3 percent of the unemployed. The number of long-term unemployed has shown little movement since June, but was down by 687,000 over the year. (See table A-12.)

The civilian labor force participation rate, at 62.6 percent, was little changed in December and has shown little movement in recent months. In December, the employment- population ratio, at 59.5 percent, changed little. (See table A-1.)

* * *

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 292,000 in December. Employment rose in several industries, including professional and business services, construction, health care, and food services and drinking places. Mining employment continued to decline. In 2015, payroll employment growth totaled 2.7 million, compared with 3.1 million in 2014. (See table B-1.)

Employment in professional and business services increased by 73,000 in December, with temporary help services accounting for 34,000 of the gain. In 2015, professional and business services added 605,000 jobs, compared with a gain of 704,000 in 2014.

Construction showed strong job growth for the third consecutive month, gaining 45,000 jobs in December. Job gains occurred among specialty trade contractors (+29,000) and in construction of buildings (+10,000). Over the year, construction added 263,000 jobs, compared with a gain of 338,000 jobs in 2014.

In December, health care employment rose by 39,000, with most of the increase occurring in ambulatory health care services (+23,000) and hospitals (+12,000). Job growth in health care averaged 40,000 per month in 2015, compared with 26,000 per month in 2014.

Food services and drinking places added 37,000 jobs in December. In 2015, the industry added 357,000 jobs.

Employment in transportation and warehousing rose by 23,000 in December, with a gain of 15,000 in couriers and messengers.

Within the information industry, motion pictures and sound recording added 15,000 jobs in December, offsetting a decline of 13,000 in the prior month.

Employment in mining continued to decline in December (-8,000). After adding 41,000 jobs in 2014, mining lost 129,000 jobs in 2015, with most of the loss in support activities for mining.

Manufacturing employment changed little in December, though its nondurable goods  component added 14,000 jobs. In 2015, manufacturing employment was little changed (+30,000), following strong growth in 2014 (+215,000).

Employment in other major industries, including wholesale trade, retail trade, financial activities, and government, changed little over the month.

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.5 hours in December. The manufacturing workweek edged down by 0.1 hour to 40.6 hours, and factory overtime edged up by 0.1 hour to 3.3 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.7 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

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Fri, 01/08/2016 - 09:10 | 7016469 BeerMe
BeerMe's picture

wage growth isn't going to happen at 0% interest

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 09:14 | 7016480 Archetype
Archetype's picture

I smell awesomeness! BTFD

 

/sarc

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 09:19 | 7016505 silverlining
silverlining's picture

Table A-16. Persons not in the labor force: 94.6 mil.

Wow, so many Americans happily retired and enjoying life!

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 09:20 | 7016509 Jstanley011
Jstanley011's picture

Meaningless. Utterly meaningless.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 09:25 | 7016528 Janet Shalom Be...
Janet Shalom Bernanke's picture

Just a glance at recent headlines paint a very different picture to the bullshit story the BLS just told us on jobs:

Keep selling, this bubble's days are numbered, as are the Fed's.

 

 

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 09:25 | 7016533 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Avg hourly wage is $25? Where, in La La Land?

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 09:28 | 7016555 ThanksIwillHave...
ThanksIwillHaveAnother's picture

Chinese still need practice to fiddle the levers.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 09:28 | 7016556 youngman
youngman's picture

Its all those new $15 hour minimum wage jobs in NYC....the restaurants areall hiring thousands at that rate...gonna be good for employment...and the cost of your sandwich...

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 09:30 | 7016563 ThanksIwillHave...
ThanksIwillHaveAnother's picture

And Macy's just posted horrible Holiday season numbers.  SA me!

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 09:32 | 7016580 kill switch
kill switch's picture

 

The birth death model contributed 207,000 jobs. /s

 

This is so pathetic.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 09:34 | 7016593 ThanksIwillHave...
ThanksIwillHaveAnother's picture

Source link?

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 09:43 | 7016634 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Really, where did you find that? I see 11,000 for Dec., but 416,000 for November and 1,160,000 for October (that's a whopper).

http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 12:24 | 7017494 kill switch
kill switch's picture

Hi folks,,,

 

did you see in the post  /s

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 09:34 | 7016587 ThanksIwillHave...
ThanksIwillHaveAnother's picture

Funny how the S&P 500 Futures skyrocketed >25 points two minutes before this announcement.  

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 09:35 | 7016595 Wannabe_Oracle
Wannabe_Oracle's picture

I'm calling DJIA down by the close. This is total Kabuki Theatre.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 09:39 | 7016617 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Like I wasn't nearly convinced before, I am absolutely sure these numbers are complete BS.

But, here's the rub. I remember when I explained the PPT to my father. He thought it was a good idea for the government to prop up stocks. OK, so he was a capitalist and didn't see the danger of that. Plus, he was pretty old - like 83.

Anyhow, now I see his point. I run a small business. It's not great, but it does earn me a living. If the truth were known, my business would likely go tits up. I'd be on the dole or looking for a job (perish the thought). So, over the past few days, when stocks were tanking, I found myself oddly perplexed. I know that the economy sucks, but the government and Wall Street want everyone to belive it's all good. So, I'm kind of cheering for the collapse, while at the same time wondering how hard hit I will be personally.

I'm actually a little sad to admit that I haven't prepared enough, but, I still like to think I'll end up better off than most people. I have good friends, land, water, skills, silver. Need more canned goods I guess. And I definitely either need ot grow my business or liquidate (I'm siding with grow). Then I'll be OK.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 09:40 | 7016620 KansasCrude
KansasCrude's picture

Its only 9:37 EST and the COUNTERFEITORS have already capped +120,000 contracts on the CRIMEX trying to push gold down.   There is no limit to the criminal behavior.  Screw Um I just stacked.  ROT IN HELL YOU SOB'S

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 09:44 | 7016646 unplugged
unplugged's picture

I don't pay attention to the lies anymore.  Take your false payroll report and shove it up your ass.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 09:54 | 7016710 eyesofpelosi
eyesofpelosi's picture

The bastards must be desperate to gloss over the "bad week" and give the sheeple a breather over the weekend?

I predicted this earlier in the week, but I DID NOT want to see it...it's all bs and for some reason the "powers" want to keep the theater going.

For what reason? There's nothing left to loot.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 09:49 | 7016667 eyesofpelosi
eyesofpelosi's picture

I'm watching the opening of the so-called "market"...Disgusting that it started out green, but it looks like reality is chipping it down...

I don't invest but, this bs does matter to the common folk. I try to explain to the sheeple that pensions, 401ks, and the money all those chain stores need to keep operating is IN that awful casino market. Those Target, Walmart, Kmart monstrosities do not or barely make enough actual revenue; so HQ buys back stocks, get the stock prices up, then sell them off to pay "the bills/line CEO pockets" AND much of it has been done with borrowed money at VERY low rates...

If pensions, 401k's, and those chain stores lose in the "markets" the sheeple lose soon after; closed stores, no retirement income, and then the collapse of civil society that follows all of that bs.

I'm not any sort of expert and I hope my layman explanations to the sheeple are not doing more damage than good.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 09:54 | 7016707 McRocket
McRocket's picture

Yup...the headline numbers look impressive.

But, as always, one must look past the headlines for the real story.


If you look at the household numbers, they paint a different (and potentially very troubling, imo) picture.

It says that - Seasonally Adjusted - the number of employed increased by a whopping 485,000. But if you look at the not seasonally adjusted, the number of Americans employed actually dropped by 63,000. 

But then it turns into potentially a lousy report. The 25-54 age range (by far the most important one, imo). Their seasonally adjusted number went up by only 16,000 - which is not too great considering this age range makes up roughly 60% of the entire numbers of employed persons and generally comprises the highest paid group that has by far the most dependants and buys the most big ticket items.
But the not-seasonally adjusted number states that there were 335,000 LESS Americans employed in the all-important 25-54 age range in December over November. If that is true, that is awful (imo).

The age group (on the not seasonally adjusted side) that gained by far the most employed in December were the 16-19's who gained 225,000. And I am guessing they were created for the Christmas shopping season only.

Table A-9. Selected employment indicators


Lastly, the average hourly and weekly earnings dropped. Which makes sense given the huge number of 16-19's hired (I assume for the holiday season) and the fact that they will obviously be the lowest paid jobs on average.

Employment Situation Summary Table B. Establishment data, seasonally adjusted


I am not certain what to make of the report because it seems all over the place to me. But the drop in wages and the massive drop in not seasonally adjusted 25-54 age group makes me think this jobs report is a negative one overall...possibly VERY negative.

But it is relatively typical of job 'creation' during the 'recovery'...lots of jobs for the very young and the very old (that do not pay that well) and hardly any for the core middle class.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 10:23 | 7016893 Armed Resistance
Armed Resistance's picture

Bullish! I mean....bullshit!!!

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 10:51 | 7017082 KansasCrude
KansasCrude's picture

Thanks for the analysis McRocket seems to do a nice job explaining the mishmash of data.  Here stupid me is thinking all the terrible topline sales numbers we saw are now easily explained by all these folks being to busy workin new jobs to shop (sarc)

 

FNE,  I believe we all are thankful for being able to keep some things about the status quo as the status quo.  Especiallyour jobs and some level of societal civility.  The rub for me comes from the extent the extend and pretend makes the downhill slide longer and nastier.  Its a terrible quandry but having under 30 progeny makes me wish to get this false world buried and on to addressing our problems and living with what we must.

Nothing is going to be easy but as we have seen avoidance is making the Monster exponentially worse when we can no longer fool fate.  Reality can be a bitch.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 11:53 | 7017451 eyesofpelosi
eyesofpelosi's picture

The b-movie slow motion death scene of this civilization is annoying, I agree. Perhaps more Ayn Rand should have been taught in the Public Indoctrination Camps...ie; Public Schools.

"You May Know When Your Society Is Doomed" **When you see that trading is done, not by consent, but by compulsion **When you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing **When you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors **When you see that men get richer by graft and by pull than by work, and your laws don’t protect you against them, but protect them against you **When you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice — you may know that your society is doomed. Atlas Shrugged : Ayn Rand
Fri, 01/08/2016 - 16:06 | 7018720 KansasCrude
KansasCrude's picture

How true EOP while I might have skipped a few pages late in the book when it went rant city.  I enjoyed the book and how true it is that we are bankrupting the producers and PC is so rampant, all the while the parasites are trashing the productive parts of our society....

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 11:51 | 7017440 skunzie
skunzie's picture

. . . . and while we're lying to you, next month we'll report the creation of 1,000,000 new jobs, because everything is awesome!!!

Sincerely, your friends at the US BLS

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