Market Massacre: Worst Ever First Week Of Trading

Tyler Durden's picture




 

What better analogy than this...

 

This was the worst first week of the year for US equities... ever!

Dow... (even worse than 2008)

 

S&P...

 

Europe was a disaster...

 

And epic for China...

 

And while only Trannies are in a bear market (down 20%) in the US, these 7 developed world markets are already there...(h/t SocGen's Andrew Laphthorne)

 

*  *  *

So let's look at the week in stocks...

It was all looking so awesome last night...

 

Futures show the swings better (with China weakness as an early week driver and US as late-week driver)...

 

Small Caps and Trannies are down around 7% this week, S&P best but still down over 5% (and down 6 of the last 7 days)

  • S&P down 5.3% - worst week since Black Monday
  • Dow Industrials down 5.6% - worst week since Black Monday
  • Small Caps down 6.9% - worst week since Nov 2011 - Russell 2000 lowest close since since Oct 2014
  • Dow Transports down 7.1% - worst week since Sept 2011 - lowest close since Nov 2013

The Dow is down 1400 points in a week (from 17,660 to 16,250)

 

Utes managed to end the week unchanged but Homebuilders collapsed... Financials and Materials were next worst...

  • Financials down 6.6% - worst week since May 2012
  • Materials down 7.4% - worst week since Sept 2011
  • Homebuilders down 8.6% - worst since Aug 2011

VIX broke back above 25... (VIX up 60% in 2 weeks - biggest jump since Black Monday)

 

What did Janet do? Post Fed rate-hike - S&P down 6.5%, Gold up 3%, 30Y Bonds up 1.6%

 

 

Stocks are about half-way there...

 

Since the end of QE3, Trannies are down 20% and only Nasdaq is holding any gains...

 

The FANTAsy stocks are all red since the end of 2015 (with TSLA and AMZN worst)...

 

Energy Stocks finally woke up to reality in the credit underlying commodity...

 

US financials have started to plunge back to credit/yield curve reality...

 

With MS and GS back below Tangible Book Value for first time in 2 years...

 

 

 

Away from stocks...

 

Treasury Yields tumbled, closing at their low yields of the year with the belly of the curve outperforming... 10Y yields dropped 14bps this week - the biggest drop in 3 months.

 

FX markets were volatile but by the end The Dollar Index closed unchanged (against the majors)...

 

But the USDollar surged 1.5% against Asian FX - its best week in 5 months... (Asian FX is its weakest since April 2009 against the USD)

 

But AUDJPY - probably the world's most-levered carry trades - collapsed 6.7% this week!! It's worst week since May 2010...

 

Commodities were very mixed this week...

 

Gold rallied 4% this week - its best 'first week of the year' since 2008... (best week in 5 months) - breaking 2 key technical levels...

 

Crude down 5 days in a row touching a $32 handle at the lows... biggest weekly drop since Nov 2014

In Summary - Sell The Dips!

See you all Sunday night!

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: Investors seeking safety are greatly rotating from Triple AAA stocks to Gold stocks (h/t SocGen's Andrew Laphthorne)

 

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Fri, 01/08/2016 - 18:04 | 7019290 messystateofaffairs
messystateofaffairs's picture

Charts, arrragaah.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 18:09 | 7019313 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Luv that Chart Porn!

Moar!!

Thanx, Tyler(s).

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 18:07 | 7019304 lakecity55
Fri, 01/08/2016 - 18:45 | 7019447 Kagemusho
Kagemusho's picture

Remember all those dead banksters? Anyone wanna lay bets as to how many more will have actuarially improbable demises?

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 18:49 | 7019455 I AM SULLY
I AM SULLY's picture

(I was wondering why the price of nail guns was going up)

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 18:49 | 7019452 I AM SULLY
I AM SULLY's picture

Ok - so Yellen couldn't "close it green". That seems strangely dangerous given what they could do. Is anyone supposing that the PPT has lost its ability to impact the market?

(fuck)

(anywho - I thought the shorts would get slaughtered today, perhaps that happens next week or next month)

http://iamsully.com/?p=15591

 

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 19:04 | 7019497 Barnaby
Barnaby's picture

Some Fed moppet said earlier this week that after QE3 the board is like a gun without ammunition. Not true, you can still pummel somebody with the butt of a gun.

This situation's more like an old cunt without any lube.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 19:13 | 7019534 I AM SULLY
I AM SULLY's picture

(damn - you can't unthink that shit if you are looking at a picture of Yellen while reading that last bit of yours)

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 19:26 | 7019582 I AM SULLY
I AM SULLY's picture

(your member can get cut up by that jagged old hole)

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 21:06 | 7020010 honestann
honestann's picture

The federal reserve and PPT can create trillions outta thin nothing every day to buy stocks and boost markets, so they can prevent crashes.

However, they don't want to.  What they want is to KNOW when crashes are coming (at least a week or two ahead), so they can buy stock/market shorts ultra-cheap.  They also want to KNOW when stock/market crashes have bottomed so they can buy up productive assets for pennies on the dollar.  The stock/market rise doesn't happen as fast, so they don't need to know the bottom quite as precisely... say within a month or two.

The only question you need to answer for yourself is... is this a trick, or is this the time the predators-that-be have chosen to trash markets.  My suspicion is the later.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 23:55 | 7020541 NoMoJackboots
NoMoJackboots's picture

XOXOXO

Sat, 01/09/2016 - 12:20 | 7021975 Sir John Bagot Glubb
Sir John Bagot Glubb's picture

With all due respect, Ann, I don't agree that the Working Group on Financial Markets, aka the PPT, or the Exchange Stabilization Fund manipulate markets to in any way make money.  To the contrary, they lose so much money it would boggle the mind, to wit: selling 6,000 gold futures contracts at market.  It is solely to drive the price down and terrify all the bidders.  The purpose of these government-sponsored manipulators is to deceive the public that those in power have everything under control.  Notice how gold goes down every time Yellen and Obama speak.

Sat, 01/09/2016 - 23:05 | 7024209 honestann
honestann's picture

You think too small.

-----

For example...

How much is their ability to create, distribute and manipulate fiat, fake, fraud, fiction, fantasy, fractional-reserve debt-bits/paper worth to them?

TENS OF TRILLIONS PER YEAR.

How much do they lose manipulating the gold and silver markets?

Maybe nothing, but at most A FEW BILLION.

So while you can sometimes correctly state some of their actions are "losers", they are NEVER losers in the wider context.

Also understand this.  Whey you do have unlimited ability to manipulate via fiat you create at zero expense (and invisibly, behind closed doors), you can often make a freaking profit by taking "stupid" actions like those you mention.  For example, if you crash a price via those shorts, then liquidate (less quickly) after the crash, you GAIN (even without reference to the wider context).  But only deep pockets can do stuff like this.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 19:01 | 7019490 22winmag
22winmag's picture

If you think the markets are entertaining, you should see the shitstorm that's gonna take place when Trump pulls out of the race at the last second.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 19:15 | 7019545 I AM SULLY
I AM SULLY's picture

My thoughts exactly - Trump's whole "Howard Beale" schtick seems completely made up and yet VERY purposeful, like he was being paid to be the "900 pound gorilla" in the china shoppe ... fucking things up for Rand Paul, for example.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 19:37 | 7019635 2muchtax
2muchtax's picture

Seems like I recall a wild-eyed billionaire screwing up the race the last time a Clinton became president.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 20:12 | 7019812 Bazza McKenzie
Bazza McKenzie's picture

Trump won't be pulling out, it will be Hitlery carried out on a stretcher.

Sat, 01/09/2016 - 01:32 | 7020733 Sir John Bagot Glubb
Sir John Bagot Glubb's picture

He has too much invested in it. And he's always wanted to be president too.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 19:10 | 7019519 ihatediscus
ihatediscus's picture

THAT WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN TO ALL OF 'EM

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 19:09 | 7019520 ihatediscus
ihatediscus's picture

LOL.........................YA WELL..............

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ZzAS53gcDg

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 19:10 | 7019524 Kprime
Kprime's picture

New signs going up on the streets of New York.

 

  BEWARE OF FALLING TRADERS

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 19:16 | 7019547 I AM SULLY
I AM SULLY's picture

Lots of traders spready out across the USA too ...

So, we all might get a little bit of entertainment ...

(when the day comes)

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 20:19 | 7019837 T-NUTZ
T-NUTZ's picture

Algos don't jump.  They just keep BTFD unti someone turns the machines off...

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 19:19 | 7019554 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I'm seeing less then positive results from luxury conglomerates?

 LVMH, world leader in high-quality products

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 19:40 | 7019652 Flying Wombat
Flying Wombat's picture

The Global Bubble Is Popping – SGT Report Podcast w/ Dave Kranzler

http://thenewsdoctors.com/the-global-bubble-is-popping-sgt-report-podcast-w-dave-kranzler/

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 20:47 | 7019937 luna_man
luna_man's picture

 

 

Just want to know...How come when I make money in the "market's", it's an "MASSACRE"!!

 

am I doing somthin wrong

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 20:57 | 7019980 anyways
anyways's picture

Relax. U should have learned the last 20 years. It's not over, until its over. To be clear, its obvious not to buy in this market, but it is smart, to be clear.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 21:38 | 7020146 InnVestuhrr
InnVestuhrr's picture

I did not lose 1 cent -

I bought US Treasuries - their price is UP UP UP

AND

they pay interest, have zero holding/storage cost, zero transaction latency, AND extremely high + quick liquidity when I want to sell.

Sat, 01/09/2016 - 00:18 | 7020598 CultiVader
CultiVader's picture

Yeah, we know. Your Schpiel qualifies as spam, asshole.

Sat, 01/09/2016 - 05:27 | 7020943 Jack Oliver
Jack Oliver's picture

And when they 'mature' you will get ZIP - SQUATT - JACK SHIT - ZERO - NOUGHT - NOTHING ! You are a FUCKING genius !- MORON !

Sat, 01/09/2016 - 10:42 | 7021127 InnVestuhrr
InnVestuhrr's picture

Are you ranting about the same national collapse, bankruptcy, apocalypse that you mental defective doom & gold cult worshipers have been prophesizing every

day after day

week after week

month after month

year after year

year after year

year after year

for more than 40 years ?

That's spam :-))

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 21:44 | 7020164 FX223
FX223's picture

All according to plan.  Make no mistake, those that really run all this shit have a horrible plan for all of us and if this is the big crash it's only because they allow it to be.

 

Die painfully moneychangers

Sat, 01/09/2016 - 01:29 | 7020727 Sir John Bagot Glubb
Sir John Bagot Glubb's picture

Go see The Big Short. They aren't that smart and they are greedy and lazy. They have the benefit of controlling the current casino is all. They did in 2007 and 2008 too.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 22:32 | 7020316 GeoffreyT
GeoffreyT's picture

I've been a bear since before it was cool: my first big bear call was in April 2000, and my 'trade for the decade' in 2002 was Short S&P (at 1165), Long Euro (at 0.84ish), Long Oil (at $19-ish), Long Gold (at $260-ish ).

 

But there's also a time to be medium-term long - and I changed my mind on medium-term short positions in equities (specifically DAX) in March 2009, and changed it back to bearish after DAX hit 11,000.

I'm still secular-bearish - for the entire next generation, which will include the implosion of teh US and its fragmentation into at least 4 different countries.

That said: the bell has rung for this washout.

If I had to guess, I would say that the Thu/Fri waterfall was due to a medium-sized 'hedge' fund liquidating, preparatory to going out of business. I use the mock quotes around 'hedge' because most 'hedge' funds do fuck-all hedging... they are actually 'leveraged punting funds' that play "Heads I make a motzah through 2&20; tails we all go out of business, but keep the 2" (I used to review these fuck-knuckles for a living, and I've also seen the tape do this before, even before Duelling Algos made the problem slightly more intense).

 

For the record: I got out of 3/4 of my Long DAX @9900 from two nights ago with a gain of just over 100 DAX points each on 3 lots, but am carrying the 4th lot - and I'm not worried in the slightest.

My win streak remains unbroken - now at 143 winning trades in a row since August 2015... across DAX, Oil, Gold, SPI, SPX, DJI, NIK, 30yr, VW and some other stuff that I forget. I've only had 7 short trades in that time (3 of those on long bonds) - the lowest number of shorts in my trade record in any year all the way back to the late 90s when shorting tech trash was giving me heartburn eight days a week.

I can't post screen caps of my trade record in this shitful comment mechanism, but anyone who wants to see it is more than welcome to ask.

 

If you look at my comment history, you'll also see that I was bearish oil above $141, bearish Gold when it hit almost $1800 (despite having a long term gold target price of infinity USD/oz), and have been buying oversold and selling overbought since forever.

Tyler is clearly a decent analyst, but he gets mind-cancer at sentiment extremes - at which point 'fade Tyler' is a very fruitful enterprise. When even ZH is full of shrill 'We'z all DOOOMED!!!', it shows that TD has forgotten that the purpose of a market is to transfer money from weak hands to strong hands... to get the largest amount of capital possible positioned on the 'obvious' (but wrong) side of the market, and then administer the Hot Buttered Carrot (aka the Gatorade Bottle of Doom - up the Vord).

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 22:41 | 7020340 captain-nemo
captain-nemo's picture

It’s hard to believe that the central bangsters would give up controlling the stock exchanges and the global markets , that would mean that more than seven years of hard work of manipulation, lies and digital money that they have put into this would have been for nothing.  If they give up propping up the bourses like they have done like a clockwork these years,  the global economic system will surely collapse and meltdown in a matter of months. Their only option is to continue down the same path.

I was a little surprised that we didn’t see any interventions on Friday , or some last minutes rally , but I assume the bangsters around the globe now will use the weekend holiday instead to plot out a common strategy and plan and how they should continue from here.

The central bangsters are pretty easy to read and their steps and actions are pretty easy to predict. I say we will probably see a global common worldwide ‘recovery’ next week with massive inteventions. Perhaps the US weeks old rate hike will be reversed and new QE announced, and we might even hear some bangsters use the ‘whatever it takes’ card.

The madness will surely continue, more intense than ever. Mark my words.

 

 

Sat, 01/09/2016 - 00:17 | 7020594 Sorry_about_Dresden
Sorry_about_Dresden's picture

Can we call it the Great Depression2 yet?

Sat, 01/09/2016 - 04:15 | 7020894 Jack Oliver
Jack Oliver's picture

The ECONOMY ?? What is going to stimulate it ?? WAR has lost it's CHARM since Russia got involved !

Sat, 01/09/2016 - 04:17 | 7020895 Jack Oliver
Jack Oliver's picture

My advice to all investors out there is to GO SCHLONG !

Sat, 01/09/2016 - 08:53 | 7021191 Tegrat
Tegrat's picture

My 9yo daughter saw the SPX chart, took a sip of her sleepy time tea and said it looks like it's going to keep going straight down, they walked off to play barbie.  LMAO.

 

Sat, 01/09/2016 - 09:27 | 7021256 lucky and good
lucky and good's picture

With every market pullback as of late we are forced to wonder if this is the beginning of the end. Have we entered the period that may someday be referred to as "The Great Reset"? This is the period where after decades of modern monetary theory the world reverts back to the tried and true.

When it comes to a falling market however, the market can fall like a stone or in the case of a "realizing market" slowly grind its way downward. The slowly downward and bone grinding action of a realizing market tends to go on forever and a day with no respite. The article below titled, "The Great Reset! Has it begun?" explores this subject.

 http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2016/01/the-great-reset-has-it-begun.html

Sat, 01/09/2016 - 10:39 | 7021474 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

Where's the 'other peoples money' for all those promises going to come from? http://readynutrition.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/umemployment-rate.gif

Sat, 01/09/2016 - 14:59 | 7022617 No More Bubbles
No More Bubbles's picture
His Name is Robert Paulson!

 

https://youtu.be/GCi_PIz5ekU

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!