"Trump Could Win It All": 20% Of Democrats Say They'd Vote For Trump Over Hillary
At this point, it’s become abundantly clear that Donald Trump’s brazen rhetoric and unorthodox campaign strategy (which primarily involves simply saying whatever pops into his head with no filter whatsoever) isn’t a liability.
In fact, the bellicose billionaire’s style and penchant for controversy has catapulted the real estate mogul to the top of the polls leaving but one serious challenger (Ted Cruz) for the GOP nomination.
Recently, Trump has taken aim at Hillary Clinton, calling her “disgusting,” a “liar”, and insisting that she’s “married to an abuser.” His first television ad opens with a black and white image Obama and Clinton who are referred to only as “the politicians” (a nod to Trump’s contention that he’s trustworthy precisely because he comes from outside the Beltway, so to speak).
Still, few analysts believe Trump could best Clinton in the national election.
A new poll shows that may be a miscalculation.
According to a survey conducted by Washington-based Mercury Analytics, 20% of likely Democratic voters say they'd cross sides and vote for Trump. Here’s more from US News & World Report:
So if Donald Trump proved the political universe wrong and won the Republican presidential nomination, he would be creamed by Hillary Clinton, correct?
A new survey of likely voters might at least raise momentary dyspepsia for Democrats since it suggests why it wouldn't be a cakewalk.
The survey by Washington-based Mercury Analytics is a combination online questionnaire and "dial-test" of Trump's first big campaign ad among 916 self-proclaimed "likely voters" (this video shows the ad and the dial test results). It took place primarily Wednesday and Thursday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.
Nearly 20 percent of likely Democratic voters say they'd cross sides and vote for Trump, while a small number, or 14 percent, of Republicans claim they'd vote for Clinton. When those groups were further broken down, a far higher percentage of the crossover Democrats contend they are "100 percent sure" of switching than the Republicans.
When the firmed showed respondents the Trump ad, and assessed their responses to each moment of it, it found "the primary messages of Trump's ad resonated more than Democratic elites would hope."
About 25 percent of Democrats "agree completely" that it raises some good point, with an additional 19 percent agreeing at least "somewhat."
Mercury CEO Ron Howard, a Democrat whose firm works for candidates in both parties and corporate clients, concedes, "We expected Trump's first campaign spot to strongly appeal to Republican Trump supporters, with little impact – or in fact negative impact – on Democratic or independent voters."
He continues, "The challenge to Hillary, if Trump is the nominee and pivots to the center in the general election as a problem-solving, independent-minded, successful 'get it done' businessman is that Democrats will no longer be able to count on his personality and outrageous sound bites to disqualify him in the voters' minds."
Right. And that's precisely what we've been saying for months. Put more simply: Trump is gaffe proof, which means it isn't about how many outlandish things he says, it's about whether he can craft a coherent narrative.
As the campaign drags on, his message is starting to sound more like an actual policy platform and less like an ad hoc series of soundbites.
And that's a very dangerous thing for the Democrats.
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The single biggest swing vote, whose results could make this a LANDSLIDE for Trump is the white, non-college educated voter.
And pay attention to just how strong he is there. 20% of white dems say they would cross the aisle to vote for him.
Go here, and play with the interactive tool in the demographic boxes. Move the black or hispanic sliders around a LOT and there isn't much change. But change the white / non-college educated just a little bit and there is a BIG impact.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/
The biggest swing vote are always blacks, who don't vote at all, really, and cost the Dems all close elections.
I think 8 years of Obama dithering has left many black voters wondering why the hell they voted for him. Any person of any colour should be interested in someone that knows how to create real jobs.
Play with the tool whose link I posted. I think it may well cause you to change your assumptions.
The Democrats have hitched their wagon to an old mare with a long trail of sh*t trailing behind her...
Will she try to get back at Bill and give out blowjobs in the oval office?
the Dems assume Trump is vulnerable on immigration, but the hispanics in this country who can vote don't want waves of new immigrants competing for their job. there is also the white backlash against Obamas HUD Sec 8 secret immigrantion policy. Trump at this point is running against Obama and he has a lot of ammunition. its not likely Hillary can say she can change anything that Obama is doing, so the matter gets more dire. it really comes down to someone other than Clinton who can run against Trump and who is that? Sanders? then there is Banghazi, the email scandal, if HC cared about her party she would pull out the race right now.
Unless she either knows for a fact she is going to be president, or knows for a fact she is not. I believe this to be the case. She has already been preselected in which case both she a Trump know it, or the reverse is true.
One of two things, I think: Either Clinton is the chosen one, and Trump will either get slmmed or pull out in the primaries. In that case he has served the purpose of reducing all other GOP candidates to background noise. OR Trump is the chosen one, and Clinton has served the purpose of blocking any Dem candidates that Americans might consider a valid alternative to trump. Eitehr way both already have their assigned roles and are playing by the script.
Prove it.
i think that we'll know when the stock market selloff is over and the oligarchs have made their play. then you check to see who GS is backing and thats your president
are you kidding me? Trump will slaughter Clinton 2-1 at minimum........ a Patriot or a traitor... not hard to decicide..
Hillary as POTUS = There Will Be Blood.
If I bothered with voting anymore...I'd vote for Trump! Article misses the key point that this will be another electoral college election, where 1 or 2 states are the deciders.
Always. WE DO NOT GET A SAY.
There are serious people talking about Trump winning NY and NJ.
If that happens, it is game over for the Dems.
PA can happen. Ohio.
Because of his strength in the white working class demographic.
If any of those things happen you can ignore Florida, Colorado, and other spots that are so often the swing states.
You would chose NOT to vote this time. Fucktard
You would chose NOT to vote this time. Fucktard
"And take their oil" Lulz^13 !
I don't think Assad or worse Putin would agree !
Also another useless war (It's a fact that American do more shit than solving the situation), Trump want 4 millions refugees instead of 1 million ?
I think it's pretty much FACT that analysts dont know what the fuck they are talking about.
7 years ago, she lost to a no-name with no votes named Obama and this time around, she's already far behind Trump. I think it's safe to say, the people STILL dont want this bitch in office.
that's because guys can recognize a flaming bitch when they see one. she reminds men of their worse nightmare, being married to one now or in the past.
she is queen of the cunts. she gives me flashbacks of my first wife.
if Trump is the nominee and pivots to the center in the general election as a problem-solving, independent-minded, successful 'get it done' businessman
That's too big an if.
the race for TOTUS 2016 is on.
so exciting isn't it? just like wrestlmaina.
who will win the prestigious honor of reading the script to America of just how badly we are going to get screwed for the next four to eight years?
killory is the evil we know, probably a serial killer and most likely should be in prison right now...but she can read I assume.
and does anybody here really believe a word that comes out of trumps mouth? think he's sincere with all that crap...or is he just saying what people want to hear?
you know, like the last guy, hope and change, yes we can.
ring a bell?
not that it matters much, CONgress is just as corrupt, maybe even more so than the white house. then you have the never ending fed alphabet soup bureaucracy that answers only to their corporate masters and frankly does not give a shit what any legislator, elected executive, judge or DA has to say.
so sure Trump in 2016
because
does it really fucking matter anymore?
I'd seriously like to know how Mexico is going to pay for a wall. Are we going to build it first then send them a bill? Are they going to pre-pay before we build it? Will there be some kind of installment payment plan? Is Mexico going to build it? Are Mexicans going to build it? If so, will there be Mexican QC standards?
It sounds like a great idea but he sounds like a Demorat when he promises something that someone else is going to pay for.
A more believable (and more fiscally prudent) plan would be to require border patrol to use some of the billions of bullets we've already given them. No need to hire an engineering firm or anything. Bullets. Magic.
The Mexicans could pay for the wall by BUILDING the wall. They are great builders. Did you see those El Chapo tunnels, and they dug those without anybody even knowing.
Actually, the Mexicans ARE great builders. When Cortez arrived in Mexico, he reported that the infrastructure far surpassed anything he had seen in Europe. Of course, I don't know how much of Europe he had seen, but obviously he had seen Spain.
Really easy. Renegotiate the free trade deal with Mexico.
Yes.
and bernie is totally ignored. if you were upset when paul was totally ignored you have to be upset that bernie is totally ignored by the msm. new hampshire likes bernie but you would never know it.
fox was trying to spin the canadian cruz's birth status as a nonevent. their analysis is the problem with today's politics. it is a moot issue unless there is a challenge sent to the supreme court. the problem with that is there is no standing unless cruz becomes president. in other words, cruz is good to go, especially since he is the only repuke candidate that has any chance of defeating trump.
anyone who votes for the cunt is stupid. there are a lot of stupid people out there right now. dems are realizing bernie is sincere paleodemocrat, defender of the middle class. if you are a democrat and don't vote for bernie then you don't know what your party is suppose to stand for.
trump is sincere about his platform also as a bit teddy, a bit reagan, a bit eisenhower, a bit goldwater, all great republicans.
if trump goes against the cunt he wins hands down. bernie may actually be a bit more difficult because of the common ground on foreign policy and bringing jobs back to the usa.
Cruz is an AIPAC, netanyahu, Israeli-Firster asskisser - owned by the banksters. Don't let his recent change of positions fool you - unless you are a fool.
It's funny, the mainstream Republicans brainstormed their 2016 primaries precisely to prevent a Trump. They were thinking somebody might rise up from the Teaparty, but still. As a matter of fact, they intended to stomp out the Teaparty once and for all, when all of a sudden Trump snuck up from out of nowhere and bit their heads off.
The progressives of both parties have known, since Wilson at least, that Americans are dolts. And that allowing them to vote is at best an inconvenience, and at worst, well. You get a Trump. I suppose the only reason they continue to allow us the privilege is because they know we will rise up and kill them all if they fuck with it.
Voting for Trump = selling America short. I know many here would like that. Stupid bastards and sore losers))
P.S. I'm from Ukraine.
let me guess, the piece of shit site double posted
lick balls
He is the only candidate that would tell the world the truth about Ukraine.
There's no 'truth', only manipulated morons pretending they live in a black and wite comics book.
Are you Rabbi to the NWO/USSA leaders.
Talking and doing are two different things. He can talk but can he get the Constitutional reforms needed to fix all the problems? Can he cut 50% of the federal government? Can he cut 90% of the laws on the books so that law enforcement is a simple easy to understand proposition? Can he remove a good portion of the federal judges who have taken it upon themselves to pass law after law after law.
If he calls for a Constitutional Convention upon his election to fix the issues, a convention run by the people and not the elected officials, he will stand with pantheons of World History.
If he made such a proposal and commitment, he would be elected overwhelmingly.
wtf zh fix your fucking site
-- a real "edit" button would contain the 'delete' option. Fucking dumbasses.
Buh bye...
<-- Trump wins in a landlside vote!
<-- The traitor clunton wins. ayfkm?
"[...] she’s “married to an abuser.”"
Don't feel bad, they deserve each other.
"Americans get the politicians they deserve...good and hard." -- H.L. Mencken
Personally, I don't vote anymore. It just encourages them.
That's a lot of if's between now & then...
I tought this is ads for Sildenafil..
In every poll, in a Sanders/Trump match, Trump gets creamed.