FBI Crime Report Reveals Massive Surge In Murder Rates In Several Large U.S. Cities

Tyler Durden's picture

Earlier this year the Brennan Center for Justice released a report analyzing violent crime data in America's 30 largest cities for the calendar year of 2015.  While the report noted modest increases in violent crime in Baltimore, Chicago and Washington D.C., it concluded that, on the whole, reports of a national crime wave were premature and unfounded, and that “the average person in a large urban area is safer walking on the street today than he or she would have been at almost any time in the past 30 years.

Now, just a few short months later, the folks at the Brennan Center have updated their study with crime statistics through September 2016 and they're wishing they could have a "do over" on that previous conclusion after finding that the national murder rate is now projected to increase 31.5% from 2014 to 2016.  Oops.

Moreover, while spikes in violent crime were limited to just a few large cities in 2015, so far in 2016 11 out of 22 of the largest cities in the country, for which the Brennan center was able to collect data, reported a YoY increase of over 20% in murder rates.  To be fair, cities like San Jose reported a large percentage increase off a very low base but a 71% increase is still significant.

Finally, while we often write about murder rates in Chicago, due to the shear number of deadly crimes, when reviewed on a per capita basis the crime rate even in Chicago pales in comparison to Detroit and Baltimore.

FBI Crime Data


Moreover, the spike in violent crime over the past two years has seemingly reversed an over 2-decade long trend in declining murder rates per capita for the U.S., overall. 

FBI Crime Data


Can anyone spot the outlier in the following chart accounting for the majority in incremental murders in 2016?

FBI Crime Data


Of course the real question is why the sudden spike in violent crime is occurring now.  The study attempts to explain the sudden spike with all of the usual excuses including sustained poverty, unemployment, declining police forces etc.  That said, the chart below seemingly debunks many of those theories as several cities have experienced a substantial increase in murders without a corresponding increase in the overall crime rate. 

FBI Crime Data


The "why now" question is something we recently addressed in another post entitled "Milwaukee Homicides Soar - What Is Going On In the Murderous Midwest?".  While the typical explanations for violent crime (e.g. poverty, unemployment, etc.) may explain why crime is higher in certain cities it certainly doesn't explain why the sudden spike is occurring now. Thomas Abt of the Harvard Kennedy School of Government thinks the sudden spike is more likely due to the "Ferguson Effect" or a concept he refers to as "legal cynicism." 

The key question is why the spike in violence now?  Ask any "expert" to explain the cause of violent crime and you'll get a range of responses from systemic problems of poverty, unemployment, lack of education of inner city youth, breakdown of the family unit, etc.  The problem is that none of those things explain the sudden changes in violence we're currently witnessing in the Midwest.


Thomas Abt, senior research fellow with the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, believes the issue is more likely what other political commentators have dubbed "the Ferguson Effect."  Writing for The Marshall Project, Abt discussed what he thought might be causing the sudden spike in violent crimes in the Midwest:


It is unclear what is driving the problem, but my own hunch – and it is still just a hunch at this point – involves a criminological phenomenon called legal cynicism. Multiple studies have demonstrated that, controlling for other factors, when communities view the police and criminal justice system as illegitimate, they become more violent. When people believe the system is unwilling or unable to help them, they are more likely to take the law into their own hands, creating the cycles of violent retribution that were chronicled so vividly last year in Jill Leovy’s Ghettoside.

Certainly, one has to look no further than the recent mainstream media coverage of the protests in Charlotte to find examples of the police being delegitimized.


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Mass_hysteria's picture
Mass_hysteria (not verified) Sep 27, 2016 4:26 AM

Facts don't matter statistics don't matter to communist america.

Manthong's picture

Shooters be black


Shooters be white

Multi's picture

I'm going to blame the Nigger effect. Or more properly, the Nigger defect.

CheapBastard's picture

But Hitlery said last night everything has been awesome under Soweto? Best administration eva.


Donald should use these stats to show why there is so much racial tension. Soweto's job destruction, soaring crime, more wars, etc. he doesn;t even have to mention Soweto's raycist comments encouraging BLM thugs.

Jim Sampson's picture

Charlotte better up their estimate.

CuttingEdge's picture

The sheeple be gettin' poorer across the spectrum (other than the obvious).

This is gonna get a whole lot worse...

Laddie's picture

There is NO TRUTH in whatever the government or the mass media says.

http://newnation.org/ The previous owner of this website had it up from 1995, the hacker group "ANONYMOUS" terrorized him and his family. A brave White man took it over and so the facts are still be published. The bodies pile up in mounds, but the Media Bosses, the TRIBE, don't want you to know about it.

White man, Think Again! by Anthony Jacob, published January 1st, 1965, is available at Amazon:

University of Chicago's Hypocrisy on Free Speech
by Kevin MacDonald PhD emeritus professor of psychology at California State University - Long Beach

We thought the University of Chicago would be a good place to start given that they have loudly proclaimed themselves opposed to safe spaces and trigger warnings. Two possible ads were submitted (shown above and below here), and both were rejected by the newspaper with the simple statement, “unfortunately, our editors did not approve them.” Free Press Promotions emailed the president and the dean to get their reactions, but so far no response.

Robert Zimmer is the president of this non-profit university (which is quite profitable for Zimmer; he makes nearly $3.4 million/year). Zimmer is so proud of his commitment to free speech that he waxed eloquent on the topic in the Wall Street Journal...

Moreover, regarding the McCarthy era, that was when the left was on the defensive and were strong advocates for free speech. But now that the left is in charge, they are leaders in squelching speech they don’t like.

So I am inclined to think that Zimmer’s virtue signaling on free speech is a sham. Despite all the high-flown phrases, his university is just another institution defending the hegemony of the left in academia. And Zimmer is just another well-paid soldier in service of our corrupt establishment. The anti-White
revolution is indeed massively incentivized.

Kenlona's picture

One thing is certain, it's ALWAYS going to be somebody else's fault and somebody else's problem to fix. A black  man gets shot in a black city with a black police chief run by a black dem. City govt and what does the brother of the victim say? White people are devils and not a freakin soul speaks out against it? 

Latitude25's picture

Missing:  any city in Florida.

Zero Point's picture

It jus bes deys culcha

CRM114's picture

Just to point out that the "drop" in Baltimore is from a massive increase in 2015, following the backing off of the Police after the Mayor basically told them they'd be dragged into court for anything. The lack of pro-active Policing continues. The murder rate for 2016 is still almost 50% higher than it was before Freddie Gray. 30 murders this month already. More here.



Do cops kill blacks without good reason? Rarely, but yes.

Do cops kill whites without good reason? Rarely, but yes, and proportionately more often than they kill blacks. 

Baltimore has had no questionable deaths of suspects since Freddie Gray. A detailed check of the data shows that, for every questionable cop killing of a black man that gets avoided, 400 more black men get killed by other black men.

Does that sound like a good exchange to you? 

Police forces were invented for a reason. They aren't perfect, but they are a whole lot better than chaos.

Caledonian's picture

Does that sound like a good exchange to you?


I'm ok with it.

CRM114's picture

Well,it rather depends on whether you think it's good because they are deciding who dies for themselves, or you are just glad there's a lot more dead black guys, or you think it's good because there are a lot more dead probably bad black guys.

I think it's bad because current Government policy means more dead guys = more taxation. If they want to determine their own justice and policing, they should be obliged to provide their own tax revenue to pay for the consequences also. Let them run their own trauma units, and morgues, and pick up their own bodies.

scintillator9's picture

What would the murder rates be if certain groups were removed from the data, such as those trouble making Amish.

CRM114's picture

Not too many Amish on Baltimore's West Side.

Not too many Amish anyway.

Ifyou are trying to isolate who the problem group is, it's urban black men between the ages of 21 and 45. Looking at the detailed Baltimore data shows 90%+ of all homicides in this bracket. Lots of murders go unsolved, or don't result in prosecutions, but the known killers are also urban black males between 21 and 45.

Bay of Pigs's picture

That is the common trait and fact all across the country. Try and point that out to anyone in the USA and you'll be labeled a racist.

CRM114's picture

I find I'm labeled a racist by a lot of people whatever I say these days, and I don't give a stuff any more.

If I am given a chance to defend my views, I can always prove I'm not racist, sexist or any other -ist.

If not given a chance to defend my views, then I'm dealing with fascists, whatever they call themselves, and I leave their company and/or employment for good. They soon find out what they've lost when I've gone.

PTR's picture

Don't try to reason with the insane, CRM.

CRM114's picture

It is by initially reasoning with them that one discovers they are insane.

Because you see, I don't assume...I'm not prejudiced.

Once I discover they are prejudiced, or are unreasoning, it's goodbye.

Caledonian's picture

By all means point it out you have already been labeled a racist.

truthalwayswinsout's picture

Disappointing results for Black on Black violence. This is a good effort but Blacks just need to do better.

CRM114's picture

All crime is fundamentally linked to the employment rate.

Exporting jobs causes more murders, simple as that.

If some of the current data appears to show different, then you can be sure they've 'fixed' the employment data.

Multi's picture

This is simply NOT true.

The fact that you are poor doesn't make kill another human being. No matter how many lefties studies tell you the contrary.

Stu Elsample's picture

exactly right..

libtards sure have some lame excuses for their pet ghetto chimps

CRM114's picture

It simply IS true.

See here



..and I said employment, not poverty. I agree with your statement, but it's got nothing to do with my argument or the facts of the matter.

Multi's picture

I'm sorry, it is still not.

By the way, I think poverty is a far more lax restriction in you assertion than employment, for YOUR advantage. In other words, to say "someone has higher probability to commit crimes when unemployed" is a lot more extreme than say "someone has higher probability to commit crimes when in poverty". I hope you realize there are plenty of successfully (and reasonably wealthy) professionals who go through periods of unemployment. It would be interesting to know the leftie explanation why these people, in not need of material things, will be more prone to crime in those transition phases.

Anyway. The facts of the matter are, to put it succinctly:

- From my personal experience. I've been poor and I've been less poor during my life. Also I've been unemployed and I've been employed. And in any of those instances the probability of me committing a crime has been always exactly the same.

- From what I've seen. I've lived in different countries and in different neighborhoods. And I've lived in poor neighborhoods were I felt more secure than in some other more-wealthy neighborhoods.

Now I could believe what Mr. Howard says over my lying eyes of course. But not thanks. From my personal experience and what I've seen... poverty (or unemployment if you wish) is not a significant cause for criminality.

If you want to look for causes for criminal behavior, look at RACE and CULTURE. Oops, sorry if that triggered you.

CRM114's picture

I disagree. Poverty and employment are different.

I've been poor too.

Firstly, short periods of unemployment are not relevant, the essense of the problem is hope of employment. General unemployment is the only easily available statistic for what actually matters, which is the hope of attaining reliable employment at a reasonable wage. 

What kills people's belief in society is lack of justice, and lack of hope. People can tolerate almost any amount of poverty and retain societal values if they are, in however small a way, able to gradually improve their lot.

People can be employed yet still poor. People can be rich (especially those on huge Government benefits) and unemployed. You assume they are the same, I assert that they are not. Feudal Lords generally understood this - everybody got a job. Generally, these jobs had some social use, unlike many make-work government office jobs today. Sweeping the streets or road-building is of use, whereas unnecessary bureaucracy kills business. As one of the senior technicians I worked with used to say "Busy hands is happy hands".

As you will note above, I agree that race and culture are big factors. However, one question that has to be asked is whether, if you put black people into better circumstances, or white people into worse, things would be any different. I've worked with people of just about every race and culture in highly responsible jobs, and I detect almost no difference in tendency towards crime in any race. So, I conclude black people in good jobs aren't criminals.

It is very hard to disentangle the culture from the consequences of long term unemployment. I have lived in the UK, in areas where there has been widespread unemployment for 2 generations. The cultural problems of absent fathers, drugs and widespread crime exist there too, in wholly white neigborhoods. Thus I conclude that the culture is a consequence of long term unemployment, whatever the race, and that the crime follows from the culture.

And nothing at all triggers me, fire away!

shovelhead's picture

Wholesale/ retail drug-running would be considered employment, so I guess that pretty much blows that unemployment theory out of the water.

CRM114's picture

I was presuming we were talking about legal employment, thus not counting drug-running, extortion, being an aide to Hillary, assassination, etc.

Stu Elsample's picture



All crime is fundamentally linked to DNA and culture

Paying negroes to breed causes most murders, simple as that.





CRM114's picture

There's strong evidence linking crime to race, but racial correlation is not the same as saying DNA is the cause.

I think the culture, as it relates to family and employment, is a strong factor, and psychologically an easy link to prove. 

Stu Elsample's picture

"DNA" = Dindu Nuffin Attitude

CRM114's picture

Ha! The perils of being a scientist..there was I thinking you meant DeoxyriboNucleic Acid ;)


I accept your point about Dindus.

Yuefo's picture

MAOA warrior gene - "0.5% of white MAOA genes and 4.7% of African-American MAOA genes are this 2-repeat allele, almost a ten-fold difference."


Cloud9.5's picture

What is the violent crime rate in Appalachia? 

BabaLooey's picture
"FBI Crime Report Reveals It Is Feckless and Corrupt To Solve Any Crimes At All"


kappal_toba_dhurr_ne_thook's picture

No surprises here. Of course as more are unemployed crime will rise. Also, as municipalities are straddled for cash, they cut their police forces and VOILA! Crime "surprisingly" rises.

There are economic problems everywhere, but in USA you have a public that for the most part does not respect law and order and is prone to riot. When the real crisis does come, I wouldn't want to be in America, that is for sure!

Multi's picture

Again NOT true.

To say "poor people are criminals" is the fucking most insulting thing you could say.

Lefties for all their hype about equality, and high moral grounds, and what not; are the fucking most (undercover) classist people on earth.

"in USA you have a public that for the most part does not respect law and order and is prone to riot." what an idiotic thing to say. "I wouldn't want to be in America, that is for sure!" who gives a fuck where you'd be?

CRM114's picture

Look, there is no mention of poor people in his post, yet you put it in quote marks.


If you are incapable of actually reading what people say, can I suggest you stop posting replies?

Bay of Pigs's picture

No, he quoted the poster correctly. He said "for the most part people in America don't respect law and order and are prone to riot". That is completely false and plain fucking stupid. Maybe you should read a bit closer as well.

CRM114's picture

No he didn't (unless the original post was changed, and I don't think it has been).

The point you make is true and comes from a different sentence.


I am criticizing the first sentence, which carries a non-existant "quote" and is wholly wrong. I have no argument with the second two sentences, and didn't criticize them.

You appear to be saying that I can't criticize the first sentence because the other two are true. Do you understand logic at all?

Multi's picture

Chill out, see the time stamps of my postings you'll notice I posted these before you've got technical some posts above with the "unemployment" and "poverty" terms.

I conceded my first quote is NOT legit, in my defense I wasn't trying to quote him literally. I'l go out on a limb and venture that our friend here is conflating both terms, though.

If it's not the case, it's he to say, and I stand corrected then.


CRM114's picture

Fair enough. 

I'm quite strong on identifying exactly what the causes of things are, otherwise one is correcting the wrong thing and therefore not solving the real problem.

I also feel it's important to stick to what we know is wrong (God knows, there's no shortage of that), rather than give the libtards incorrect statements which are easy targets to attack.


Arrest Hillary's picture

Murder surge .... before Trump cracks down ?

Stu Elsample's picture

Each and every day, the silly useless welfare system bred baboons validate exactly what us 'racists' have always said about them.

I love it!!!....keep up the good work.

salman's picture
"FBI Crime Report Reveals Massive Surge In Murder Rates In Several Large U.S. Cities"

....by design???