Building Permits Plunge Most In 11 Months Amid Multi-Family Slump

Tyler Durden's picture

Following January's 'Trump-bump', building permits in February plunged 6.2% MoM, the biggest drop since March 2016 (amid global recession fears), driven by a tumble in multi-family units. While housing starts rose 3% MoM, the annual growth slipped back to 6.2%, again fading Trump exuberance, despite a 12 year high in builder confidence.

Permits tumbled...

 

Led by a plunge in multi-family units...

 

Multi-family starts also dropped in February...

 

It appears for now that homebuolders are more willing to talk about how great things are then actually putting money to work,,,

 

So to summarize, Homebuilders are the most optimistic since the peak of the housing bubble in 2005 but are slashing permits (forward-looking) and reducing multi-faily starts.

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cossack55's picture

Anticipating the "wall"?

Xatos's picture

I work as a superintendent in multi-family.... There's no shortage in Texas.

DavidC's picture

"So to summarize, Homebuilders are the most optimistic since the peak of the housing bubble in 2005 but are slashing permits (forward-looking) and reducing multi-faily starts".

Yup. Makes as much sense as a "dovish rate hike".

DavidC

MFL5591's picture

The rate hike was to sabotage America.  No rate increase should have ever happened with this mess we had.  Intentional sabotaging of Trump by the deep state! 

Joe Cool's picture

Nothing makes sense now...Come to think of it, nothing's made sense for a while....I'd say post 2008-9....

BorisTheBlade's picture

New Normal aka Old Effed Up.

I am a Man I am Forty's picture

the only reason multifamily is slumping is because they've been building apartments non-stop for the past 7 years

ThisIsMadness's picture

With interest rates rising, mortgages on over-valued homes become even more unaffordable. 

Joe Cool's picture

With the exception of some bubble spots like NYC and The Bay Area etc....

Home prices are pretty flat and they're raising rates now...I'd say it's pretty much done....

Kind of like when you twist a wet towel to get the water out....At some point you just can't....No matter how hard you twist it.....

Houses Depreciate's picture

With record high levels of excess housing inventory and plunging demand for housing, why build more?

 

 

silverer's picture

Wait, wasn't it just yesterday they reported optimism? How can such a large industry flip flop so much in such a short time?

Glad 2B Gone's picture

By looking at the chart, it seems it flip flops every reading.  Following that dynamic, we should get a reading of +5% next month.  No trend here, just statistical noise.

BingoBoggins's picture

Depends on who's lying to you.

Bam_Man's picture

Maybe higher interest rates will help.

pebblewriter's picture

"It appears for now that homebuolders are more willing to talk about how great things are then actually putting money to work"

Remember, it's not their money.  Odds are the bankers aren't quite as optimistic as the borrowers...

BitchesBetterRecognize's picture

the only building permits being pulled are either for multi housing projects under the affordable housing act, very few small private funded commercial buildings, and the mega commercial projects backed by Chinese money - at least is what's going on here in the North East.... 

single residence dwellings are in via of extinction - just once is a while a multi-millionaire ask for one as a back up or for misuse with the mistress... 

Retail projects are a no go - I had designed several of those and construction either postponed, owners backed off, or is constructed & vacant for years & competing with vacancy against existing structures.....

 

The so called construction boom is going bust soon..... things aren't looking as they appear - too much fucking speculation out there & no juice... 

William Dorritt's picture

Great post

Link to some source on the Chinese Investments ????

Welfare Plantations are the specialty of their owners, the Political Elite. Surprised TRUMP does not shut these cash cows down

BitchesBetterRecognize's picture

read this article  & ask around for the "Seaport Development"- which is the Chinese crown jewel in the Boston market. 

http://www.bostonmagazine.com/news/article/2014/09/30/chinese-real-estat...

Pitchman's picture

Many both within and beyond America's borders labor under the delusion that US policy is determined by the nation's elected representatives amid a careful balancing act between the judicial, legislative, and executive branches of government. In reality, the inner workings of US policy resemble nothing of the sort.

 

Exposing the Real Deep State

 

William Dorritt's picture

BUBBLE ECONOMY STILL FULLY INFLATED SINCE 2000

Compared to 1960 Median home is now 3.3 x Median Household Income

Compared to 2000 Median home is now 2 x Median Household Income

After Tax, Obamacare and 1,200 month rent or payment,

.........Median family has $1,000 for food, gas and everything else.

 

The 2008 Bubble never popped, Bernanke's Achievement of a Lifetime

.............was to re-bubble the Economy for Barak and the Banksters

Never One Roach's picture

Mo matter. My realtor says, "There's never been a better time then now to buy a XYZ (you fill in the blank)."

 

That mantra is as true as, "if you want to keep your health insurance, you can keep yoru health insurance."

BingoBoggins's picture

New construction Multi-res is drying up, huh? God, it's about time. Enough of catching up months late schedules, destroying the body, nobody speaks English (so I learn some Spanish or talk in latin constructed grammar), working for psycho Superintendants and Developers, It's almost all I done for the last three years. There's still some cranes up around town. 

Rents are out of this world, cut-up spaces like mazes, and every jack one of them tenants has a new car and no place to park it. How the fuck do they afford it?

Give it time. All the swanky joints, converted warehouses, senior res and ass'ted living, painted in pastel colors reminiscent of the last century. The place will look like a Gulag in less than twenty years. One word - demographics.

And I'll be dead, dead, Dead! Hope it's with my boots on.