'Soft' Data Snaps - Philly Fed Drops Most In 11 Months As Stagflation Surges

Tyler Durden's picture

With only 'soft' survey data supporting any hope of proclaiming economic success post-Trump (as 'hard' data has tumbled), the cracks in that sentiment are starting to show. Philly Fed's business outlook tumbled from 33 year highs in March (falling the most since March 2016). Prices Paid surged in March as New Orders stagnated and general business activity tumbled.

Stil positive but the endless post-trump rise is stalling...


Is the animal spirits gap about to be closed yet again... and not the good way?

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Joe Cool's picture

when the Talking Heads (Not the band) come out with the "Trump is killing the economy" mantra full force....Then we'll know the bottom will fall out....I'd say going into fall this year...Winter

Jäger's picture

This can go 2 ways for Trump 

1) economy shits the bed within 1 year and he can be a hero and fix it by 2020 or

2) the economy shits the bed in 2018 or later and he is  once-and-done

Joe Cool's picture

Jager...When this one goes down....It isn't coming back....

It would be better for Trump if it crashed now I guess....Can't really blame a POTIS in the first 3 months or so...

Later this year is when i suspect things will start deteriorating

Jäger's picture

I thought the same thing after 2008 but trillions in debt will be thrown at deflation again

small axe's picture

might be harder to create debt in a world of inflation rather than deflation -- flash gangs looting supermarkets because people can't afford food tend to give even Fed academics pause.

rf80412's picture

Inflation makes the people who own things richer on paper as prices rise, as well as making it easier to service debt.  And when was the last time that a shrinking money supply and higher borrowing costs led to more consumer spending and investment?

I think the big lesson yet to be learned is that monetary policy only works as advertised in a normal economy.  We do not have a normal economy, and no, the problems are much more complicated than "OMG fiat paper!" and "OMG debt is a sin!".  The consumer is broke, the people who have money are sitting on it, the transition to a post-industrial economy has left us with a bloated FIRE sector and little else but low wage services, and 10 years later, the bubble machine is back in business and the ROI on rent-seeking is higher than the ROI on adding value.

GUS100CORRINA's picture

The CBs have lost control.

STAGFLATION is a CLEAR and PRESENT DANGER to the REPUBLIC's financial health.

Eight years of ZIRP, deficit spending and money creation is now the nemesis of the republic.

The FED is way BEHIND THE CURVE and cannot do what is required because of DEBT which how hangs over their heads like a 'sword of damocles'.

END THE FED because they are incompetent.


lew1024's picture

Not merely incompetent, incommensurate to the problem.

Central planning can't work because human minds, in any aggregate, cannot foresee the future. That is necessary to plan. Without omniscience, the choices are central planners making very large mistakes or a large number of small players making little mistakes. Systems cannot survive the first, but the distributed-risk and -reward model does well. Intermediate models of very large companies does less-well than many small businesses, as the latter evolve faster.

Centralization stops evolution, another reason those systems always fail in competition with the better social orders.

orangegeek's picture

oh lookie!!!


Since nigga is gone, macros are showing up "plunging".


Now the marxists can blame Trump.



Joe Cool's picture

Me thinks that's their plan also....It's all Trump's fault....Never mind the craziest venture by any Central Bank in the history of the world for atleast the last 10 years has nothing to do with it...

spastic_colon's picture

all going as planned....time to change the dot plot...........again..........no more hikes in 2017

silverer's picture

All this was set up to happen on eight years of Obama's spending and legislation and department picks. The Obama machine is still mostly in place. Nothing substantial has changed or will change until papers start getting signed and budgets and appointments are completed.

Pitchman's picture

Many both within and beyond America's borders labor under the delusion that US policy is determined by the nation's elected representatives amid a careful balancing act between the judicial, legislative, and executive branches of government. In reality, the inner workings of US policy resemble nothing of the sort.


Exposing the Real Deep State