Consumer Confidence: Democrats Expect "Deep Recession", Republicans Look To New Golden Age

Tyler Durden's picture

UMich consumer confidence rose in the preliminary March print, beating expectations at 97.6 with current conditions surging but expectations stalling somewhat.

This exuberance is occurring as real earnings growth slumps. But crucially, the partisan divide is unprecedented.


The overall level of consumer sentiment remained quite favorable in early March due to renewed strength in current economic conditions as well as the extraordinary influence of partisanship on economic prospects.

The Current Economic Conditions component reached its highest level since 2000, largely due to improved personal finances. While current economic conditions were not affected by partisanship, this was not true for the component about future economic prospects: among Democrats, the Expectations Index at 55.3 signaled that a deep recession was imminent, while among Republicans the Index at 122.4 indicated a new era of robust economic growth was ahead.

Interestingly, those who self-identified as Independents had an Expectations Index of 88.3, which was nearly equal to the midpoint of the partisan difference.

Importantly, there was no moderation in these extreme views from last month, with the maintenance of the partisan divide fueled by selective attention to economic news, with Democrats more frequently reporting unfavorable developments and Republicans more frequently hearing of favorable changes.

Expectations regarding future economic conditions remained highly partisan. Continuous good times in the economy over the next five years were expected by 87% of Republicans, but only 22% of Democrats. In contrast, renewed economy-wide downturns were anticipated by 71% of Democrats, but only 11% of Republicans. This would imply that Republicans anticipate the longest economic expansion in more than a century. Perhaps even more extreme were expectations regarding unemployment: 75% of Republicans anticipated declining unemployment, compared with just 12% of Democrats. Indeed, based on the traditional correspondence between unemployment expectations and subsequent changes in the unemployment rate, the Republican data would be consistent with a zero unemployment rate in 2018! While the Republican data certainly represent unattainable outcomes, the data for Democrats, while within traditional ranges, also represent extreme predictions.

Overall, the sentiment data has been characterized by rising optimism as well as by rising uncertainty due to the partisan divide. Optimism promotes discretionary spending, and uncertainty makes consumers more cautious spenders. This combination will result in uneven spending gains over time and across products.

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Truther's picture

To hell with both. Fucking dupes.

whatamaroon's picture

What will the AA homies do w/o goobernment jobs?

froze25's picture

So the Ultra Rich Globalist Dems and their horde of non-working welfare queens, illegal aliens and snow flakes don't have a good outlook. What does that matter anymore?

Son of Loki's picture

Maybe there'll be fewer purple Escalades in the Walmart handicap parking as several healthy young diverse peeples jump out.


How do they get those handicap tags? I thought they're supposed to be for people who are actually handicapped?

froze25's picture

Welfare and disability are only supposed to be for people that are actually handicapped or mentally retarded and un-able to actually work. Cut it all off, no one gets shit. "The world needs ditch diggers too"

demi urge's picture

You know, the world doesn't really need ditch diggers anymore

Got The Wrong No's picture

When I was in Mexico there was a work crew of around 30 people digging a trench for a pipe. I thought it very odd that a Back Hoe was parked right next to them. 

CheapBastard's picture

After 8 years of depression, firings, wage freezes, etc for the middle class, it's about time the FSA and gubmint workers experience some of what the rest of the nation has been subjected to.

Lets hope we see fudning to these left wing "educational" centers like Berkley cut off. Why should taxpayers fund that fascist Marxist Mussolini style violence?

Got The Wrong No's picture

They keep Great, Great Grand Ma alive on life support just long enough to get the tags and as soon as they come in the mail they pull the plug and send her to that special place in the Dem Voter Files. 

NoDebt's picture

Can we get on with the civil war already?  I grow weary waiting.


Countrybunkererd's picture

healthcare?  The R think rates for them will drop while the D's think they will have to pay their own way?  pull it, bring on the war.

Dr. Engali's picture

That will have to wait until the season finale of the Walking Dead...., well then there's the Game of Thrones..., oh, Big Brother is on after that..., but don't worry civil war will be soon. Oh yeah, can't forget about Survivor..., that should get us through to football season.....

spastic_colon's picture

we've been in one since 2008

Got The Wrong No's picture

Yes but the Dems believed their Clown President who never lied to them that he fixed Bush's recession. Now the Morons are lied to again about Trump causing a recession and now everything will be a Republican's fault. They have a mental disorder or maybe it's in the Dem Hand Book, Never, Ever take responsibility for anything. They all have it. Just look at Hillary, Obama and the MSM. It's never their fault. 

Personally, I believe the FED will take us from hidden Recession to full blown Depression on Trumps watch. God, I hope that doesn't make me a Democrat. 

Silver Bug's picture

The reality is, we are still in big trouble, but at least with Trump at the helm, the MSM and financial elites are having to think about their actions. Hilariously, the the best they can do is come up with are fake news stories, or non stories. They are pathetically desperate.

BigWillyStyle87's picture
BigWillyStyle87 (not verified) Mar 17, 2017 9:12 AM

Looks like leftists are a little late the party. This depression began 17 years ago.

Truther's picture

Too busy pimpin' around, mind you.

CJgipper's picture

Red letter day - for once the Democrats are correct.

Got The Wrong No's picture

When you are on welfare for a living all you have to do to get a raise is have another baby with another baby's Daddy. Meanwhile, the Daddies are out selling drugs, robbing Seven Elevens and working under the table. The Welfare Queen has it best because she gets to screw the Government and all the Daddies figuratively and literally.

What I'm trying to say is, there is never a recession in the Welfare Society. But that never stops them from hating Whitey for holding them down. What recession you talking about Willis??

Dr. Engali's picture

The only thing useful from this report is that it confirms just how retarded both democans and republicrats are.

jus_lite_reading's picture

Indeed. Which is why I'm a Libertarian Realist.

Countrybunkererd's picture

how long will you stay in the country?  or did you leave already?

Got The Wrong No's picture

I'm so confused, I don't know what the Hell I am anymore. It really doesn't matter. We are all about to get Fucked a whole lot more. 

NugginFuts's picture

Ever have that idiot brother in law who understands nothing about economics but thinks because we have a new president that everything is going to be AWESOME again? You know, that thirty something college drop out who sells lawn mowers for a living, hasn't paid taxes in years, mooches off the government, and lives in your basement because his wife kicked him out?

This is the guy answering these surveys.

CJgipper's picture

To be fair, the new president is CLEARLY going to be better for you and me.  However, there's no avoiding what's baked in.

NugginFuts's picture

Based on what? There is absolutely NO evidence Trump will do any better or be different than any of the other oligarchs who sell us out for their own personal gain. If anything, there's MOUNTING evidence that he is in the process of selling us out to the same fat cats, bankers, and sociopathic Wall Street assholes that cause EVERY crash and laugh at your enslavement.

Please wake up. Trump won't save you. 

Cloud9.5's picture

Lest you forget, the options we had were Hillary or Trump. Base 6 on the body count thus far, we are better off.

Mustafa Kemal's picture

"To be fair, the new president is CLEARLY going to be better for you and me. "



To be fair, it doesnt appear that the new president will do anything of the kind. Even if we avoid a major military conflagration, sucking up whats left of our human and natural resources, I think we shouldnt resist and let him drive Obamacare 2 down all our throats for us to finally realise what you say is drivel. 

whatamaroon's picture

It sounds as he is the smart one.

NugginFuts's picture

You want him? I'm tired of having him and his worthless kids in my house. 

whatamaroon's picture

I would buttt, I aint got no basement.

perkunas's picture

Never underestimate the stupidity of the sheeple. Most of the green-tards, are highy educated.

logicalman's picture


Educated? Not so much

Got The Wrong No's picture

I have a MBA and I didn't find out how stupid I was until I started a business at 24. I learned far more from people who had experience than a resume. 

centerline's picture

Deep Recession...  DEePREceSSION... Depression for the masses.  Robust growth for the 1%.  Answer:  both! 

perkunas's picture

Yep and nothing changes Goldman Sachs and jamie dimon running, Trumps finances. The Fed, a private bank printing your money. While the puppet man dances and gives you candies

Jason T's picture

makes total sense.  

It's back to " you reap what you sow" not .. "you reap what someone else sows"


tmosley's picture

Cut the regs and the recession will pass quickly and we will bounce back into that anticipated golden age.

People really don't understand just how harmful these regs are to people who want to start their own business. Back in the 60's, anyone could start their own shop, selling or making things. Raising, killing, and slaughtering animals, etc. Now you need a million dollars to get started, and if you fail, it's all over for you. Somethings, like raising and killing animals, are so difficult to get done now, only a very few companies do it, when there used to be at least one company in every town of any size. Hell, you could go into any grocery store and they would have chicken cages all along the back wall of the meat market and you could pick which one you wanted and take it home to kill and dress yourself, or they would do it while you shopped. Can you imagine what the health department would do to you if you tried to offer that kind of service today? PETA? The army of lawyer and bureaucrats marching on your front door would drink the rivers dry. And to what benefit? Those places were clean, and the public could look right in there.

lil dirtball's picture

> Can you imagine ... ?

It happens out here in the country all day long. Looking out my window, I can see the neighbors cows grazing blissfully. Some Monday, he'll take some to the auction a few miles to the south of here. Perhaps one or two will wind up at the local abattoir. It's not uncommon to go there for some fresh meat and see cows/calves/pigs on a trailer waiting to be serviced.

Same with chickens. There's an auction for them every other Saturday. People buy 'em for a few dollars, take 'em home and slaughter 'em. Roosters apparently make the best dumplin's. I've been known to give them away when I get too many.

A neighbor up the road has an 'Eggs For Sale' sign out in his yard. Nothing like fresh yard eggs. The yellow in the yolks goes on forever.

It sounds like you just live too close to 'civilization'. You should move ... it's not sustainable. It's much healthier out here, anyhow.

However, I agree with you - it's a formidable mess trying to start a .gov approved biz these days. So, just don't do it.

steve2241's picture

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, …”

okyoureabeast's picture

Here's hoping for an economic collapse! 

A collapse means the actions of the past 9 years weren't enough. A collapse means that the reckless get thrown in the spotlight. A collapse means cheap goods for an overspent populace. A collapse forces our leadership to act.

However, no one can properly predict when it will fall down.

how_this_stuff_works's picture

Be careful what you wish for.

I am the child of parents who were young adults during the Great Depression of '29. I remember the stories. My aunt always felt her osteoporosis was a result of my grandparents being unable to afford milk when she was a child.

The only way my mother's family survived was by my grandparents raising chickens and gardening. Grandma was a skilled seamstress so she remade clothes given her by my great aunt when her daughter outgrew them.

You see, with all the government programs, nobody today really knows what it's like to do without basic necessities. People back then had some survival skills, some sense of community and families looked after each other. Now, not so much.

WoodMizer's picture

Just another manifestation of punditry masquerading as news.  The third estate has detiorated into yellow journalism.

Caloot's picture

So if you follow ZH it's the Dems in this survey who are right.   That's the bottom line.   Trump will be blamed and and the result will usher in an era of big govt that would make fdr blush. This is getting boring.    Can't we skip ahead a couple of pages.....Because if Trump starts ww3, I don't know why I voted for him


how_this_stuff_works's picture

Not sure why you got that downvote, because last year it was the Repubs who thought the economy was headed for the toilet.