Russophobia Tops Trumphoria - Moscow Stocks Plunge To 8-Month Lows

Tyler Durden's picture

For eight straight week after President Trump was elected, global investors fell over themselves to buy Russian stocks, driving the MICEX index to record highs. However, the constant Russian headlines climaxing in the last two weeks of chaos has seen Russian stocks collapse - erasing all of the post-election gains and more.

 

However, as is clear from the chart above, while Russian stocks are languishing at 8 month lows; Russian credit risk remains near 3 year lows.

“We see no reason that the market would return to the difficult-to-justify euphoria seen in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s victory,” Sberbank CIB analysts Cole Akeson and Andrey Kuznetsov said in an e-mailed note on Thursday.

 

“Recent events in Syria evoke a higher level of caution than in weeks prior.”

Interestingly, the last two days have seen a notable divergence as while Tillerson and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov were talking through their disagreements in negotiations in Moscow late on Wednesday, the Micex Index closed at its lowest level since before the U.S. election but Russia's credit risk actually improved...

Almost as if someone wanted to send the message (via stocks - because the mainstream can understand that) that Russia is 'bad'.

The slump has made Russian stocks the cheapest relative to emerging-market peers since 2015.

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2_legs_bahhhhhd's picture

No matter where you go, you got bankers doin their shit.

Raffie's picture

So will Russia being out of debt play a big part to counter bad news?

They are to be out of debt this year which is amazing.

keep the bastards honest's picture

Russia's GDP is less than Australias. Russia is a miracle since Putin came in after the gouging done in the 90's by external operators. Edgar Cayce said freedom will come from Russia long after communism.

Rusia will be fine when soverign debt collapses, bonds collapse and hyperinflation hits the eu uk and us.

If Aus had a decent govt what could we  have done. Russia's GDP is less than Australias.  Aus  has huge gold  silver and iron ore, gas and lithium etc.and  been stable. It can feed itself still despite having a new population over sustainable. Its weather is fine. It is mostly desert and old worn out soils. Snow and ice is not an issue. Huge govt debt, major money launderer, huge private debt. Corrupt govt.

panther man's picture

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nmewn's picture

Next the dimz will accuse Putin & Trump of running a pump & dump stawk scheme...lol.

philipat's picture

Perhaps demonstrating that Russia still has a stock "market"? Unlike some other countries....

LetThemEatRand's picture

No kidding.  Russia and the US are playing a game of chicken where one possible outcome is everyone being cooked, and the other is Russia losing a key pipeline deal.  I suppose the other option is Trump coming to his senses, but he and his MIC/CIA/Goldman advisors seem sure the outcome is Russia limping away without its pipeline.  The real question is why US markets seem to be yawning at global chaos.

BlindMonkey's picture

US markets are hardly yawning my man.  

 

It is all about BTFMOAB now.  

Golden Showers's picture

In Russia, when the stock market goes down, it's good.

LetThemEatRand's picture

Or in mother Russia, you go down on the stock market, and it's good.

silverer's picture

Buy the low. The Russian stock market has sound basics. It will recover. Live long and prosper.

PitBullsRule's picture

Any good Gulag stocks you can recommend?  

keep the bastards honest's picture

still bashing the jewish bolsheviks and their 64 million dead in the USSR. Netty said they would squeeze the  US like a lemon  until it was dry and blew away  like dust.

NoWayJose's picture

Oh my - 8 month lows! Horrors! How about still up 30-40 percent from the 12 month lows???

max2205's picture

Oil will get crushed....remember Georgia invasion? 

khnum's picture

I think the world is getting mighty tired of the neanderthal in chief and the monkeys in congress holding their demented kabuki theatre which has now reached critical morass and holds the world to ransom ruining economies and slaughtering thousands I just herd a report of chinese aircraft on the move it took three hours hundreds maybe over 1000 for them to pass I sure hope your idiot in chief has a deal.

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earleflorida's picture

the ruskies got out months ago leaving the bagholders ie. foreign investors as a failsafe...

it works folks

PitBullsRule's picture

This is a buying opportunity for all those Russian Automobile stocks! Eh..maybe not.  Or you could buy those Russian Electronic stocks!  Oh wait...

Come to think of it, Russia has never produced Jack Shitsky, so maybe there aren't any stocks!  Well, there's always Vodka!

xrxs's picture

Look at the components of the MICEX 10. Lots of oil, gas, and mining. Rosneft, Lukoil, Gazprom, Nornikel.

jm's picture

It's a cheap market with much more downside. 

The oil producers especially have decent FCF, and on an earnings basis it is hard to beat. But the ruble hasn't proper cratered yet, and it will.  

So expensive to hedge that currency.

keep the bastards honest's picture

sorry. edited a typo and it doubled post

 

keep the bastards honest's picture

great for oil exports. imports dont matter much remember the sanctions. Rus is self sufficient now, super markets everywhere filled to the brim with great food and products they say. Went to the moon on the scent of an oily rag before the USSA, they survive. 

coast1's picture

whatever.....it goes on and on..and please stop with the shepwave thing, you are all just idiots...I did the research, you wasted my time, Bo Polny has been more right than shepwave....I can prove it...how much do you guys get paid? thanks for wasting my time

orangegeek's picture

sell pot on your exchanges russia - those mental fucking retards in canada are - you`ll make it all back

peterk's picture

There is  NO RUSSIAN DEFAULT RISK... russia has VERY LOW DEBT, much lower to GDP than most  european

countries.

THis  DEFUALT RISK should be RENAMED "US  APPLIED SANCTIONS RISK ON RUSSIA " chart. ITs got way less to do with  MONEY than POLITICS.

Its like the RUssian ROuble, a currency carrying low debt and  a  healthy economy behind it.. russia teolerated 15% interest rates recently, no problem.... see how the US handles that. Again the ROuble is sold for political  risk where the  finaince community sees russia as being excluded from the international finiaicial betwork.

I wuld say the recovery of the rouble n the past 12 months has  ALOT TO DO  with RUssia devloping its own SWIFT banking protocols. This sysytem is naking russia indpendant of the US  SWIFT sysytem, so political default risk  hads declined and the rouble  appreciated. Same with Stocks.

Russia is the BEST BUY IMO, the US a great sell... thats form a purely  economic finanicial perspective, nothing to do with  politics.

keep the bastards honest's picture

yes. Russia is happy with a low ruble. sanctions? beauty, french fromage makers went over and taught them how to do it. Ireland loves their planes. Both countries will be fine when all all go bad soon.

keep the bastards honest's picture

yes. Russia is happy with a low ruble. sanctions? beauty, french fromage makers went over and taught them how to do it. Ireland loves their planes. Both countries will be fine when all all go bad soon.

EternalAnusocracy's picture

YES, YES, YES!!!......Bitchez!!.... BTFD!!

 

When the nukes fly, buy, buy, buy, Buy The Fucking Dip!!  

 

It will be the mother of all dips!!!!

Manipuflation's picture

I want to buy the crash actually.  One T-rillion each in Stupid Loans, Auto and Credit card reported.  It is worse than that.  What about housing?  Come on.  I know there is a bank who will blow it.  I suspect CITI. 

Citi is big Russia.

Manipuflation's picture

The good news is that I bought 12 old T56/69 Russian Tanks from Iraq on Ebay and found that all of them had 12 lb bars/Kgs (who cares) of gold in their 30 gallon 1976 Oldsmobile Cutlass Salon gas tanks.  The best news is that we fixed up those gas tanks for the tanks to look like we we never privyed into them.

That was funny.  Had to reason with Mrs. M for a minute though.