Banker: "One Million Will March On Washington If They Impeach Trump. They Will Be Armed"

Vince Lanci's picture

via Soren K Group and Marketslant

Because He's TNT

Sometime contributor Bon Scott who happens to be not only a Trump supporter but more importantly a Constitutional expert and Big  "L" Libertarian had this to say in response the 'Impeach Trump' escalation.

10,000,000 people will march on Washington if they try to impeach Trump... they will be heavily armed. I will be one of them. No kidding

While our colleague seems given to hyperbole consider this. Last year as early as February he said:

"Trump can win. Ignore the polls. Polls are meaningless in an election with so many “shock events”. The truth is Donald Trump can win the election in a landslide. 

That was true. We quoted him in our October 2016 post HERE

SKG contributor Vince Lanci echoed Bon's words in this Aug post:

On the flip side Trump fans should be happy.  If past calls are any indication Trump will indeed win in  landslide..

Bon also said in our July Post

Trump will spend like a drunken sailor

That Story HERE

This is also true in Trumps's attempts if not in execution yet. 

 

Can you argue With Bon?

The truth is, while our pseudonymous contributor is given to outrageously couched statements, he  has picked up  on something that is close to our hearts.  You can  see it in how polls are just wrong consistently. And to us that is explainable. The statistical world relies to heavily on  polls. Polls are merely "snapshots' of moments.

What is not revealed in polls is the subjectivity of the person being polled!. We know the bias of pollsters. But what has been ignored for years is subjective probability. That concept relates to trends when humans are involved.

Do you think people are going to be honest with pollsters anymore? No, they say what you want to hear so they can move on. Voting is very private. And people  are taking back that privacy. On a broader scale, subjective or conditional probability includes drifts or trends.  Nassim Taleb is a key proponent of this, and we count him  as a genius in  taking his options  knowledge and applying it to many fields in need of improvement. We also  enjoy his lambasting those dogmatists that do not get it.  Jim Rickards is another subscriber to Bayesian  theorems. 

 

What Is  Bayesian  Probability?

Simply put, is it a 50/50 chance the sun rises tomorrow? Statistically the answer is yes to an uneducated caveman seeing it for the first time. But how many times can that caveman stick with those stats when 5 years later the sun continues to rise?

Personal example: If it is 50/50 that a coin  lands on heads or tails, then how come I could at one time flip a coin and make it land on heads 10x in a row? Statisticians will say " Luck, law of large numbers will fix that". Sorry guys that is just not true.

Here is why. I practiced coin flipping at one point in my trading career to make it a skill. I measured how high it had to go, what side the coin had  to start on, and how hard I had to flip it. Was I cheating? No. What people see as randomness is actually a skill based event via intense practice. Had I let the coin land on the ground it would have been randomized. But I did not.

 

Pollsters Do Not Get it

This is the essence of the core ignorance of pollsters and statisticians. They ignore the human factor. And with that, they miss grass roots macro  trends like the populism that triggered Brexit. They do not see what our friend Bon does, that people are not numbers, and the more we rely on  models dogmatically,  the more likely we are to be surprised. Or as he would say : Dont be stupid! Trump is going to win in a landslide.

So while numbers are counted by Nate Silver, conditional/ subjectivity of the person polled is not factored in. This is the problem in modern  polling and stats. 

In trading we used to Fade brokers to protect ourselves from this. We were taught statistically that it is 50/50 every order is buy/sell. But when  a  broker came in everyday at the same time for 2 months straight and bought from us, that concept meant shit. We used to say:  Crap, how high do I have to make this price so he would not buy from us? And the answer was essentially NONE. That broker was a buyer and would continue to be one until he began unwinding  his position.

 

Option Traders Don't Get it

At the time I understood this as Bayesian probability and explained the rationale for "fading" markets to my boss and mentor. He disagreed. He did not get it. He was an extremely hard working savant who in the end became a bitter detractor despite my idol worship and his own immense  success. When you quit working for him, with only a couple exceptions, you were the enemy.  All this because the man, like the modern pollster could not grasp that whenever human behaviour is involved, probability has a subjective factor.

 

What are the Odds of a DC March if a Populist President is Impeached?

Can we afford to ignore "Bon", our colleague who is quite sane, does not represent the lunatic fringe, and is intimately aware that while Trump may not be a beltway darling, he has governed through populism.

Witness how Trump castrated the media with his "Fake News" press conference. He literally made people reject the MSM info as false and further likely turned people off to even looking at it. 

He effectively put them in a box where they could not sell their wares anymore.

This is no easy task. Winning elections via populism is easy game. But actually governing that way is not easy. We'd dare say,  it has not been done ever in a Republic.

So here we are. A populist-ly elected President who has thus far governed through populism. A president with a loyal following that is likely to not take an unconstitutional impeachment sitting down. Trump will not go quietly into the night. He will appeal to the public. He is a narcissist. And to his credit, narcissists are  all about winning popularity contests.

And against him are now the legal types who will use the Constitution to undermine it.

To Bon we joked:

"To get you and your pals to disburse, all we have to do is kill the wifi."

To which he responded:

That isn't enough. You may get some to go home with Beer bribes, but the core people mean business. They will not stand for this.

 

People vs. Elites

Do you want to bet against a DC march  if Trump is impeached? Do you want to be short Gold or long stocks if that happens?

A march would be an exponential increase in uncertainty. The people vs the Elites. And in the end with Elitist power at their disposal including manipulating the press, social media, revoking freedom of speech and rights to assemble and restricting gun ownership; it wont be enough. There will be the fallback to the use of force. People in power always lean on that when  needed. And while they may have learned marketing and manipulation tricks, at bottom, there is always metal hammer inside that velvet wrapper you see.  

 

People are fed up. Impeach  at Your Own Risk

We personally own 2 guns. A Benelli shotgun for skeet, and a 357 magnum for target range shooting. As believers in gun control laws for non law abiding citizens, we will not be inclined to subscribe to giving up what protects us from  a deep state that does what it wants and when it loses, changes the rules. This is the potential beginning of  the libertarian left and right People aligning against the authoritarian left and right Elitists

 

Impeachment Adds Uncertainty, Not Closure

So this will not end with impeachment. It will only stir more problems at grass roots levels. To tell 50% of the country that already distrusts its institutions that those  same institutions are collaborating to kill off their president may be a spark of revolt unlike anything seen  since the 1960s.

This is the cause that would unite libertarians, rednecks, NRA types, uneducated (but no less human and entitled to constitutional rights) and the silently suffering suburban middle class under one banner. People evolve at their own pace. Stop telling us what is best for us. That is not working out so well for you in the world. Don't do it here

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Mareka's picture

We are witnessening a coup to remove Trump.

The MSM is pumping out a daily barrage of propaganda to justify it.

Curiously the topics the left chooses to use to attack Trump are the things their own leadership has actually done.

Mishandle top secret information, check.

Undermine the election process, check

Refuse to accept the results of the election, check

Collude with Russia, Uranium deal, check

Use public office to influence for personal gain, check

Fabricate propaganda & call it news, check, check, check

The One...'s picture

They live by the "simple things for simple minds" concept of reality...

ICValue's picture

Propaganda and the power of suggestion

Whatta's picture

Civil War II

 

Count me in Bitchez!!!!

ToSoft4Truth's picture

The last march of substance on DC took place in 1932.  We ain't near living in 1932 levels of anything. 

And they'll martyr your ass in a flash.

 

 

Wiki says's

 

"On July 28, U.S. Attorney General William D. Mitchell ordered the veterans removed from all government property. Washington police met with resistance, shots were fired and two veterans were wounded and later died. President Herbert Hoover then ordered the Army to clear the veterans' campsite. Army Chief of Staff General Douglas MacArthur commanded the infantry and cavalry supported by six tanks. The Bonus Army marchers with their wives and children were driven out, and their shelters and belongings burned."

 

GoldenDonuts's picture

Those inside the beltway don't give a flying fuck about those outside the beltway.  They also have access to a lot more firepower.  It might come down to soldiers loyalty.

bogbeagle's picture

Everywhere, in every such conflict, the military "follow orders".  There is no reason to think that this time will be different.

 

Fuckers will kill you, in a heartbeat.

Daddy Cool's picture

We wouldn't need guns for the march, just burn DC to the ground during an ongoing session of Congress.

The One...'s picture

Wait until the "State of the Union" address and get em all at once! Clean out the whole hive...

pocomotion's picture

Think logically people.  Where am I going to SHIT?  I have NEVER had to poop outdoors.  Where am I gonna bend over and crap and then WHAT WILL I USE TO WIPE MYSELF to cleanse and be ready to party, meet oppression, opposition and chaos?

Oh, what a mess we all will endure.  Pooping is my biggest worry.

SgtShaftoe's picture

Dig a cat hole, squat, poop, wipe with some soft leaves or TP if you have it. Fill-in hole, wash hands. Continue mission.

The One...'s picture

Be very careful what "soft leaves: you choose...   ;-)

para59r's picture

You have obviously never been in the infantry.  Trust me your worries are nothing. However having said that, it would be great fun messing with thier septic... don't cha think?

 

Golden Showers's picture

Well in bold in the article it says "10,000,000". Not 1 Million in the headline. Which is it?

Also, one coin toss has nothing to do with another. Go play roulette and see what I'm saying. Just remember that when you win a spin, the house still takes 1 out of 37 or 2 out of 38. That's 0 or 00. If you've ever seen a 00, go for it. They still pay out 36.

This bullshit about just how to flip a coin is crap. You have to be deluded to think that any flip can't hit ten 12 times red straight (heads / tails, whatever). If you go on the simple principle that you should start betting black on 5 red spins, think again. I've seen people get fucked sideways when it hits five more times red and then green. I've taken ten bucks at a five dollar minimum and turned it into 70, lost half of that and walked away with 15 and the house still made a rip.

Invariably this 50/50 shit is one way of looking at reality but it isn't probability. It's random. You cannot compare two systems with the same metric. The sun rising and a coin flip are mutually exclusive. Two different systems. It's not logical to compare them. Makes as much sense as comparing a coin toss with whether there will be winter or summer or spring or fall. Makes as much sense as comparing whether we'll see the dark side of the moon tomorrow or the only side we've ever seen.

One could bet on the probability that one cylinder of their automobile engine will stop at top dead center when you shut off your auto. 0. or BDC 00. the others will be in between. One could figure out the precice displacement of any cylinder in time in the system of piston engines and this is not random.

Mechanics and random are two different systems.

Instead, see what the previous spins have to say, what they have in common. If the last spin was 17, consider 34, 8, 7, 1, prime numbers... 13, 5, 23. Don't bet against a wheel. Bet with a wheel. What is the wheel telling you? Spin before 17 was 8? try 25 and 9. Or just don't play. In this example you lose. The longer you play the more you lose. That's the statistics.

Leave the sun out of it. Leave the heads or tails probability out of it. Always understand that the house wins even if you win. That is the system.

The one thing that any casino offers you is the possibility of compounding interest in real time. Get in, get out. If you make 12 percent you better fucking get the fuck out. If you make 20 percent get the fuck out. That's what you call a rip. If you sit there you will be eaten alive. And never, never ever sit at a table that isn't packed. Go with the flow and never against it. Doesn't mean don't be contrarian. Go with the fucking data and remember, it never makes sense. If it made any fucking sense we wouldn't be shitting our pants.

But yeah, I'm right there with you. Good luck.

 

deimos178's picture

I personally own more than two guns, two Taurus .38 specials, one Ruger 9mm pistol, one Bushmaster ,223, one Remington model 1100 12 gauge, one 30-30 Winchester, one Ruger .22 long rifle and several other lethal implements. Still don't think I have enough.

The One...'s picture

Thanks for the inventory. Now we know where to go when we need one of those... lol

Hammer of Light's picture

Warning from an Old Navy... As to your hardware.... What's the first rule of fight club?

DarkestbeforeDawn's picture

First rule of fight club is "You do not talk about fight club"...good point.  Marching en masse on DC will not work.  A lot of pushing and shoving and yelling and shit like that, but nothing of substance will be realized.  One dude posted here that 90% of gun owners couldn't run around the block w/o getting a heart attack and he's correct about that.  The only solution is to start local and support your state and the Convention of States

Don't get me wrong, there's nothing I'd relish more than just beatin' the brakes off of some Antifa pussy.  But, this is serious as our Republic, or what's left of it, is at stake.  Go to ConventionofStates.com and get involved

 

globalintelhub's picture

Just invest in options and forget about it www.alphazadvisors.com

Pvt Joker's picture

Not a good idea to concentrate your force in one location.  Better to have 1000 marches with 1000 supporters in 1000 locations around the country.  

FedFunnyMoney's picture

A banker eh? Nothing better than a dead one.

PitBullsRule's picture

Talk is cheap.  So what if you walk in the mall carrying a sign?  Remember all those women that walked in the mall with pink hats?  What'd that do?  NOTHING!

ParaZite's picture

Trump managed to get more people exercising in few weeks, than Michelle Obama did in eight years. 

Truthseeker20's picture

Many conservatives may not show up for him since he didnt drain the swamp, but filled it up. His purpose is to divide and distract. All this impeachment think is all show because the stock market is overvalued and needed excuse to crash. He will be the fall guy for many more crashes. The petrodollar is gying and the fed has increased inflation which is having profound effects.

http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/08/19/trumps-connections-to-wall-street...

Ajax_USB_Port_Repair_Service_'s picture

If 10,000,000 conservatives marched on Washington would the media report it? No. 10,000,000 would be reported as "several thousand conservatives  marched on Washington".

rbianco3's picture

Visualize the resourceful persons from the 2,623 US Counties won by Trump

Visualize the helpless, imbeciles from the 489 counties won by Hitlery. 

Antifa didn't get to visualize it first, they lived it.



space junk's picture

Night of the Long Rifles. Love it.  Bring it on, BICHEZZZZZ

Lost in translation's picture

I'm sorry, did the author say a million armed Americans would march on D.C.?

Does he mean like they did after 9/11, or like they did after TARP was enacted? Or like they did after the ACA was passed?

Because I'm confused...

HardAssets's picture

The problem was that after those events they didnt offer free food and beer. Do so and a million is no problem.

rbianco3's picture

Note to author, 10 million. 

I'll be there with you

Lost in translation's picture

Sure you will.

There to be cut down by law enforcement officers [sic] in MRAPS, body armor, and enthusiastically using M240s.

Lost in translation's picture

Ooo... wow, look. I've been schooled by an internet TOUGH guy!

You, Sir, are indeed BADASS!

Or are you a GS-1811-09 trolling ZH for fools dumb enough to make threats on the 'net?

So hard to tell...

Cloud9.5's picture

  Posted this on another thread: Through the Patriot Act and the National Defense Authorization Act, the Deep State turned the Presidency into a dictatorship giving the President the authority to off anyone he determined to be a terrorist, i.e. a threat to the regime. If you have the power to summarily execute an American citizen, the Bill of Rights and the Constitution are simply dust.  What the puppet masters never imagined was that they might actually lose control of the monster they created.  That is why the power mongers must either get Trump under control or put him out of office.  To do that they are obviously running several plays one of which is to impeach him.  They may be able to contain Trump. What they cannot contain is the pissed off populace that voted for Trump. Within that pissed off populace lies a minor element consisting of roughly three percent.

The three percent is a segment of the population that will physically take up arms against what they perceive as tyranny. They will do this taking on great personal risk knowing full well that the tree of liberty may very well have be watered by their own blood.  They may or may not be part of any organization.  Based on their prior act of defiance, their weapon of choice can range from leaking the private emails of their chosen political party right to showing up in front of a federal building with a truck load of sensitized fertilizer.

What is magical about the three percent is that they themselves do not know who they are.  They have to be triggered by some egregious act.  There has to be some moral outrage that flips their personal switch.  They cannot be found out.  They cannot be infiltrated.  They cannot be neutralized because they are unknown even to themselves. 

The Deep State may have wet dreams about going all Stalinesque on us and purging the populace of all the deplorables but it is too late. Obama alerted the 3%.  Based on the retail sales of arms and ammunition, the body politic bought enough guns and ammunition to outfit an army of 54,000 men every two days during the tenure of the past President.  The three percent are armed to the teeth.

According to Adams who was present at the time, roughly a third of the population supported the King, a third was ambivalent and a third supported the Revolution.

 

Based on the population figures at the time, roughly three percent of the population actually took up arms and fought in the Revolution.

goober's picture

Agree with most of your comment, but my research shows that it was some where between 3 and 5% that actually fell out with GW and crew in the Revoluition. Most sat back and tried to do nothing and that is about exactly what we are seeing today in USA. So nothing has really changed much. I do know that many of those 3 to 5% do know exactly who they are and many are actively on standby or actually out there physically fighting Antifa/Bamn idiots regularly. I do completely agree that many more will find their moment once certain stimuli have been reached going forward. But I know they are not the only source of the 3 to 5 %. Trust me they are out there and present and active. And given the right stimuli they will take serious action because they have experience in doing that exact thing and they are united and well trained out with communications and intel. And of course there are valid groups like III %ers and Oath Keepers and others. Also I do NOT agree with the general theme that simply having 300 million guns in USA is any kind of specifc force as many gun groups and prepper types love to say. "Come and try to take them and see what hapens" sounds like a tremendous amount of power. But realize the vast majority who own those 300 million guns are simply part of the 95% of talkers and most could not run around the block without a heart attack or some other serious malady. So they are not the threat they claim to be, not even close. Most live in a fantasy and will do nothing no matter what occurs. So it seems it will always fall back to that 3 to 5% who are willing to stand up to anything, ever ? Most Americans now simply will not, for many reasons I could explain.

Many of these 3 to 5% are veterans and many have ancestors that actually fought with GW, myself included. So yes we feel we have a greater vested interest in the outcome of this country and more rights than any illegal alien, refugee or created victims via political garbage. Rather simple valid motives and realizations by people who are actually willing to die for what they believe is justice and liberty. They are the same people with the same spirit as these folks

http://www.downtoearththinking.com/the-lions-of-rojava.html

and here is how you can hook up with the right people here in USA, I am one of them !   

https://www.facebook.com/Downtothinking/

Cloud9.5's picture

I personally would be extremely nervous about hooking up with any group.  Florida has an anti-militia and anti-paramilitary training statute. Fla. Stat. Ann. ch. 870.06, 790.29.  I suspect a lot of other states have similar statutes that prohibit organizing groups getting together in preparation for civil war. Such organizations are a one way ticket to the great grey rock hotel.

  I suspect the trigger will be the same thing that triggered the Revolution, organized raids designed to disarm the populace.  This time the preferred method for the oligarchs will be organized SWAT raids designed to cower the populace and to confiscate fire arms.  Repression is always sloppy and gets out of hand.   It is only a matter of time before these raids wind up killing the wrong people.  Then the fuse will be lit.

 

What is different today is that our infrastructure is very intricate and susceptible to sabotage. If a crack head playing with matches can take down a bridge and disrupt traffic in Atlanta for months, imagine what a dedicated insider can do.

ToSoft4Truth's picture

Yea, right.  What will most people be fighting for - credit card statements?  School loan bills to keep coming?  Social Security direct deposits to keep rolling so parents won't move into the basement?  Diversity? 

HomelessPatriot's picture

that is exactly what soros and his hehchmen are hoping for. Stay home and hug your family if you are fortunate enough to have one. Let us homeless Patriots with nothing to lose handle this.

Incorporated by inference's picture

I'll take a bullet or dive on a flash bang to save a fellow patriot. Anything would be better than anther 20 years with this shallow cunt I'm married to. Bring it. I'll be in the first wave. What's that story that ends with all the virgins?

KweeBohNoh's picture

Wondering what to wear to the march in DC?
Full metal jackets.

Incorporated by inference's picture

Black hoodies is a bit overdone. Tie died zerohedge shirts. Laser pointers and pitch forks. I think we might tip our hand if we all fly into Baltimore with weapons declared.

ThrowAwayYourTV's picture

Thats right! And not only march on Washington but burn everything down on the way. And remember! The FRATERNAL ORDER of POLICE endorsed Trump. So a lot of them may look the other way, if you know what I mean.

Cynicles II's picture

One more reason the cabinet consists of a lot of tough brass.

Posa's picture

Garbage. The saps who voted for Dump got a whiff of who he really is over the past few months....Once Drump started screwing with his base by replacing Obamacare with "No Care"; and nominating a SCJustice out of the pages of Dickens; and drafting a tax bill that transfers ever larger shares of income and assets to the Predator Class; and then launches a missile killing a dozen people for the amusement of the Chinese President... at that point all sympathy for Drump evaporates. Throw him to the dogs. No one will rally for this PoS.

Yeah. It's a cold coup by the Deep State and their allies.. But why should any working person lift a finger for this creep?

Centerist's picture

Obamacare is "No-Care" for the vast majority of Americans who have to actually pay for it, and tax reform is desperately needed if you want your 1040 to shrink to a manageable size, and the missile strikes were hardly for the Chinese president's amusement.

But you probably get back more at tax return time than you ever paid in, and you probably are getting your healthcare at everyone else's expense, so I can see why you're so mad.

It's tough to be a parasite when the host gets ready to yank you lose with a pair of tweezers.

Posa's picture

Wrong. I used Obamacare. But it was becoming unviable because of costs. But it did establish healthcare as a right. In contrast, Trumpcare is truly No Care for 24 million people and ruins healthcare for everyone else.