ADP Employment Disappoints - No Manufacturing Jobs Gained In June

Tyler Durden's picture

After jumping heroically in May, ADP reported a disappointing 158k employment gain in June (188k exp.) and revised May's exuberance notably lower (253k to 230k). While 'soft' survey data suggests empoloyment should be resurging, the hard numbers are disappointing again...

Medium-sized firms dominated the gains (+91k vs Small firms 17k and Large firms +50k).

Perhaps most notable for President Trump is that all 158k of the gains came in the Service-Producing sector of the economy - Goods-Producing Sector gained zero jobs.

“Despite a slight moderation in the month of June, the labor market remains strong,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “For the month of June, jobs were primarily created in the service-providing sector.”

 

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market continues to power forward. Abstracting from the monthly ups and downs, job growth remains a stalwart between 150,000 and 200,000. At this pace, which is double the rate of labor force growth, the tight labor market will continue getting tighter.”  

The drop in context:

Change in Nonfarm Private Employment

Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment

Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size

Full Infographic.

<br />
     ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 158,000 Jobs in June<br />
   http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2017/June/NER/images/infographic/main..." width="598" />

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_RRR_'s picture

so who's lying?

FrozenGoodz's picture

That's sturdy enough to revise down next month ... job well done guys

Yen Cross's picture

  Everything is awesome, BTFD.  </sarc>

  Big miss and downward revision on German factory orders as well.

Grandad Grumps's picture

Manufacturing is up 6000 ... a good sign. With real estate starting to tank (and really be somethign of a service sector anyway) and an excess of raw materials in warehouses, there is no reason for mining and construction to be expected to be positive.

Just noticed that the title of the article is a lie. What happened to the breakdown by industry that was shown.

Sonny Brakes's picture

How high's the water papa?

NDXTrader's picture

Why does anyone take ADP seriously? We could all get together here and guess at the jobs number the B(L)S will create tomorrow and do a better job

NickPeeMe's picture

They obviously didn't count th enumber of Junkies we manufactured in June.

Herdee's picture

McDonald's cutting back on American labour.

ludwigvmises's picture

Trump finds time to tweet 500 times a day about the fake media. Yet does NOTHING to rekindle our manufacturing sector! Lazy? Incompetent? I am not sure yet but I don't like it.

Duc888's picture

 

 

Do a search in Craigs list for CT, MA, NY....lots and lots of machinists jobs, manufacturing jobs, especially CNC operators.  i have not seen so many want adds for CNC programmers in 15 years.

Stormtrooper's picture

“The job market continues to power forward. Abstracting from the monthly ups and downs, job growth remains a stalwart between 150,000 and 200,000. At this pace, which is double the rate of labor force growth, the tight labor market will continue getting tighter.”

In the 1990's, 350-400 thousand new jobs monthly were considered necessary to meet the requirements of population growth into the labor force.  Has US population growth fallen so much that this is no longer the case or have expectations (and data fluffing) changed dramatically.

Hume's picture

Yeah, no.  It was not thought that 350K was necessary to keep pace with populaion growth in the 90s.  350k x 12 = 4.2 million.  Thank God the population isn't growing that fast - let alone the labor force.  100k a month is more than enough.

coast1's picture

As an outgoing musician, I meet so many new people most everyday...I find anyone about, say 32 years old, and younger all say they are no way having kids...They realize they cant afford it, and they also see the world really screwed up etc..in the 90's everything seemed fine, not so much anymore...

spankedoo's picture

Hume, hope you're joking. As late as 2004, the widely published range for new job growth to keep up with population was 350-400K. The range changed dramatically lower when Obama took office.

 

Hume's picture

Do you guys look up the stats before your post this stuff?  The census bureau has the U.S. adding 32.7 million people in the decade of the 90s.  Stay with me now, that works out to . . . 3.27 millon people per year.  That means that if 270k jobs were created per month, it would be enough for every person added.  270K is less than 350k.  But no country has 100% of population participating in the workforce.  It's at 60% now in the U.S., which when multiplied by 270 is about 160k.  And that's less than half of 350k.

Population growth in the U.S. was about 27 million in the decade of the oughts.  Please step out of your ideological echo chamber. 

spankedoo's picture

No need to look up the "stats". I read the range every week when the numbers came out. If you were monitoring those things back then, you'd have remembered it too.

NDXTrader's picture

This number might be somewhat useful if ADP said here is the raw # of paychecks we sent out compared to last month. Instead, Zandi is somewhere in a basement trying to figure out the birth/death model - garbage in, garbage out

KansasCrude's picture

Uh Mark Zandi...lol  is one of the dumbest or lyingest POS in the USA.  How can this turd show up every month with his latest fantasy and get anyone to take him seriously.  He is in outer space.  I mean is he doing stand up comedy or what.

What a joke or propagandist TOOL!

Khan Bodin's picture

That's a-key. Murican males can be bartenders and Murican women harlots. As long as oligarchs are happy and becoming richer, everything is fine. Brain-dead, ideologically brainwashed, fundamentally ignorant and slavishly obedient cattle is only capable of serving. Westerns are all too happy to accomodate the wishes of the oligarchs. How many jobs you need to work now, slaves? Westerners used to work one job, but they weren't happy so they pleased their oligarchs by having more jobs. Oligarchs told dumb western cattle: "Work harder. Work longer... and all shall prosper." And women working too, well... you can only imagine the delight oligarchic capitalists have had. Westerners probably think they need to work even harder now. ehehehehe Brain-dead, mental cattle.

silverer's picture

Obviously, the US needs more bars and restaurants.

Khan Bodin's picture

And on top of everyting, brain-dead cattle think it's free. The only thing is... it needs to respect all the arbitrary laws oligarchs pass in their minions' gathering places called the parliaments (and there are some laws of other branches of gov people need to honor too). Every few years oligarchs give them some of their minions so cattle can vote for them which in turn makes the cattle feel "free" because they expressed "their" will by voting for the minions of oligarchs. But referendas about any specific issue are very undesireable things in those places of democracy, because you see, then people truly vote for things. Have Muricans ever had referenda about anything? No? ehehehehe What a charade "the will of the people" is! Hopefully Muricans can see that.

autofixer's picture

It is necessary to start counting robots and A.I. employment. - Skynet

John Law Lives's picture

"ADP Employment Disappoints - No Manufacturing Jobs Gained In June"

Not so fast.  Bartenders manufacture cocktails and cocktail waitresses produce smiles.  That's the new economy.  Get on board...

FUBAR. 

yogibear's picture

Don't need any stinking jobs. Soon the fed will passing out $100,000 each. Anything to keep the Ponzi going.

CJgipper's picture

Time to end H1B's and put tariffs on imports like every other country does.

montresor's picture

The failing ADP is garbage... There's no more payroll to manage, so now they create funny reasrch reports..  The only number that's important is the number of sand nigger H1-B visas and a list of the home addresses of the Americans who hire them..

ElTerco's picture

MAGA. Still waiting for those manufacturing jobs, Donald.

apike3137's picture

c'mon...don't you know Twitler just snaps his fingers and it's done! Like..magic!

 

 

Dead Indiana Sky's picture

"At this pace, which is double the rate of labor force growth".......The rate of labor force growth is also determined by how many they quit counting, because they are no longer looking for employment.  Won't be long and they'll omit as many as they include in these numbers.

apike3137's picture

thanks Obama...

konadog's picture

Soon we'll split full-time manufacturing jobs into part-time manufacturing jobs to avoid paying skyrocketing healthcare costs and shazam! There will be thousands of "new" jobs according to the government.