UMich Consumer Confidence Tumbles To Lowest Since Before Election As 'Hope' Disappears

Tyler Durden's picture

Following the biggest 2-week plunge in Bloomberg's index of economic comfort in 6 years, UMich reports a big disappointment in the preliminary print for June. At 93.1 (below the 95.0 expectation), this is the weakest print since Oct 2016 - before the election.

UMich point sout that overall, the recent data follow the same pattern repeatedly recorded around past cyclical peaks: expectations start to post significant declines while assessments of current economic conditions continue to reach new peaks. To be sure, the data do not suggest an impending recession. Rather, the data indicate that hopes for a prolonged period of 3% GDP growth sparked by Trump's victory have largely vanished, aside from a temporary snap back expected in the 2nd quarter. The declines recorded are now consistent with just above 2% GDP growth in 2017.

The drop was driven by a plunge in 'hope' as expectations dropped the most since Oct 2013.

UMich notes that the weakness in the Expectations Index in early July was concentrated among Republicans (falling to 108.9 from June’s 116.0 and February’s 120.1); Democrats continue to hold much less favorable expectations, although the Expectations Index among Democrats has markedly improved (to 63.2 from June’s 62.0 in June and 55.5 in February).

While UMich doesn't release their demographic data, Bloomberg's comfort index gives an idea of the partsan divide in confidence...

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Bill of Rights's picture

Believable yes indeed...the liberal UMich survey... like it matters .

Peacefulwarrior's picture

Just wait until the Majority of Sleeping Zombies begin to realize the Economic Tornado is really an F-5 Hurricane. I believe they call this the "Finger of God"

Bryan's picture

Exactly.  What the heck does "93.1" mean anyway?  Or 95 or 35 or 102?  People flip out over the dumbest things.

So it's a liberal-source survey?  What are the questions... I can guess:


1) Don't you just hate the racist Donald Trump?  _____

2) When do you think the economy will collapse because of him?  ______

3) Doesn't the color orange bother you?  ______

4) Don't you think the country would have been better under Hillary?  ______

5) How much do you miss President Obama?  ______

6) When were you first triggered on Nov 9, 2016? _____

7) Don't you feel depressed and less hopeful now that Trump is president?  ______

virgilcaine's picture

As useful as the beigebook ind.



Snaffew's picture

markets look like they are just clinging to another hope trade of cards on an oil coated teflon pan with a storm brewing---where's the wind?

yogibear's picture

Means trillions more in Federal Reserve QE, to boost their pride and joy, stocks!

Too-Big-to-Bail's picture

Just a Post-Trump Slump

Bill of Rights's picture

Democrats are strangling the economy...on purpose. Like anyone with a half of brain would vote those fuckers back in... oh wait.

Fartboxbuffet's picture

Stay. In. Your moms basment somking weed and masturbating to gay porn you have liberal issues my freind

cesarsp_us's picture

Not to worry our clown prez will make America great any day now.

cesarsp_us's picture

Not to worry our clown prez will make America great any day now.

Snaffew's picture

and as per the fed...the best way to get "hope" up is to keep running these markets north...FullSteam Ahead!!!

yogibear's picture

It will hide reality by boosting up stocks. After all it knows it has infinite currency.

It cannot allow price discovery.

ludwigvmises's picture

Hope becomes despair. 

Snaffew's picture

dismal trading volumes on this push north all around....bull trap?  one can only "hope".

Son of Loki's picture
Buying Ivanka Trump: Fans embrace her brand as a political statement

PhiBetaZappa's picture

"Hope" has been on the back of a milk carton for the last 20 years. 

Snaffew's picture

there was a sighting in 2009

Market Rage's picture

The boys seem to be running some sort of predatory algo on R2K and trying get every last short out.  That would most likely precede a strong move down next week. Garbage.