UMich Consumer Confidence Tumbles To Lowest Since Before Election As Trumphoria Fades

Tyler Durden's picture

Despite a rebound in business survey hope, a number of consumer confidence measures have been tracking lower in recent months as Trumphoria fades. July's final UMich consumer confidence data confirms this trend printing at 93.4 - the lowest since Oct 2016. While current conditions rose to the highest since July 2005, the biggest driver of the overall decline was a tumble in the 'expectations' index.

Although a slight improvement on the early month preliminary print, the trend remains lower...


The partisan divide over confidence remains extreme...but the partisan gap has narrowed in recent weeks, mostly due to Republicans tempering their optimism. The recent declines among Republicans were somewhat predictable, but the continuation of extreme pessimism among Democrats is more surprising; although, a partisan pessimism is easier to maintain when personal finances are at the highest levels recorded since 2000. Overall, the data continue to indicate a gain of 2.4% in personal consumption in 2017.


Moreover, UMich notes that while current conditions were judged strictly on the performance of the economy, expectations continue to be significantly influenced by partisanship: the difference on the Expectations Index between Democrats and Republicans was 45 Index-points (63.7 versus 108.7); among self-identified Independents, in contrast, the Expectations Index was exactly equal to the weighted difference between the partisan extremes (80.5).

Partisan perceptions of recent economic developments have lessened, although the change was mainly due to less extreme Republican views.

Overall, fewer consumers anticipated an improved economy in the year ahead, falling to 28% from 42% three months ago.

Long term prospects for the economy were still dominated by partisanship, as 70% of Republicans expect a continuous expansion and 66% of Democrats expect a renewed downturn sometime in the next five years. Unemployment, a top concern of consumers, was expected to fall from its current low level by 52% of Republicans, and to increase by 43% of Democrats.

The only partisan consensus was by the three-quarters of consumers that expected interest rates to increase.

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NugginFuts's picture

"You're doing a heckuva job, Trumpy!"

FreeShitter's picture

Just wait till Jared takes over. You aint seen nothing yet.

petar's picture

Well, the people are finally starting to realize that all the promises were fake... and All the ornage one could deliver is to turn the white house into a reality show!

NugginFuts's picture

Perhaps that's all they wanted? I mean he IS a reality TV star after all. 

Up next, Kanye for Kongress!

GUS100CORRINA's picture

UMich Consumer Confidence Tumbles To Lowest Since Before Election. ARE YOU SURPRISED?



Cast your VOTE above.

c2nnib2l's picture

I'm surprised that Trump haven't tweeted anything today as yet about strong economy and good performance.


Trump probably thinks that this weak dollar is a blessing :& 

NugginFuts's picture

Trump: "It's true, I really do buy all my solid gold toilets on And they are amazing, simply beautiful. Like you would not believe just how incredible my gold toilet is. And it has a picture of Jeff Bezos face in it, too."

viator's picture

The swamp still exists. It looks like it will be very, very hard to drain.

FreeShitter's picture

Been draining the plebes since Nov 22, 1963

ebworthen's picture

Wouldn't have anything to do with the impending doubling of mandatory health"care" "insurance" tax levies, unpayable deductibles, or un-affordable rent and mortgage payments of course.

yogibear's picture

LOL, reality sets in.

It's resist Trump for the next 3.5 years. Nothing gets done.

FreeShitter's picture

Moar QE and Moar serfdom, that will get done.

G-R-U-N-T's picture

Hey, as far as I'm concerned I see Trump doing his best to deal with the Washington cesspool!

Consider the forces against him!

FreeShitter's picture

Tweeting is all the man has done. He's not working for you anyways, none of them do. He's there to keep you entertained along with CONgress and the senate while GS, old yeller and company continue to destroy the eCONomy by design.

Alex Droog's picture

Trump will make money from his farce of a presidency no matter what happens. The question is whether he will destroy the country and lose his freedom doing it.

Snaffew's picture

I wonder what the book sales will be like---Trumpf---my 400 days in office!

Snaffew's picture

As far as I can tell...trump has done nothing while in office other than to fold to the whims of the Borg.

Stormtrooper's picture

All that he needs to do is issue a general Presidential pardon to all who partake in draining the swamp and he will have millions of us available to pull the plug for him.  We are locked and loaded.

moonmac's picture

When Trump won all the Gung Ho Conservative leaders in our industry (PVF) started talking about shortages of material but now it’s just shortages of orders.

Snaffew's picture

despite the benign prices are going through the roof...from vegetables to meats including the american staple chicken---prices are soaring.  Thank yellen and co. that the inflationary parameters don't include food prices because that has no effect on the 'real" economy.

onthedeschutes's picture

RE prices where I live have doubled in the last 7 years...affordable houses for the next generation here is a complete joke.  Inflation (for things that matter) is out of control.