Payrolls Beat: 209K Jobs Added In July, Solid Wage Growth, Unemployment Drops

Tyler Durden's picture

And now the dovish Fed has another problem: the BLS reports that in July the US added 209K jobs, beating consensus expectations of a 180K print, while June was revised higher to 231K from 222K, even as May was revised modestly lower from 152K to 145K, for a net gain of +2,000 in the prior two months.

Nonfarm private payrolls rose 205k vs last month's 194k, and above the estimate of 180k, as the drop from durable manufacturing failed to materialize. In a familiar refrain, bars and restaurants hired the most workers of any sector in July.

Of course, keep in mind that the July gain was all in the seasonal adjustment factor: unadjusted, jobs declined by 1.308 million.

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.5 hours in July. In manufacturing, the workweek was also unchanged at 40.9 hours, and overtime remained at 3.3 hours.

Adding to the hawkish pressure, wages rebounded from last month's 0.2%, rising 0.3% M/M, and 2.5% on a Y/Y basis, above the 2.4% expected, while average weekly earnings rose from 2.8% in line with the highest print over the past 7 years, and once again putting wage inflation back on the map. Hourly Earnings moved up at the fastest pace since the election last year as SouthBay research points out. On an annual basis, they have moderated from the 2016 pace but remain close to cyclical highs.

The unemployment rate dropped from 4.4% to 4.3% as expected, while the participation rate rose from 62.8% to 62.9%, as the number of workers out of the labor force declined by 156K to 94.657 million.


That said, the gap between the unemployment rate and the unemployment to population ratio remains wide.

Some more details from the report:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in July. Job gains occurred in food services and drinking places, professional and business services, and health care. Employment growth has averaged 184,000 per month thus far this year, in line with the average monthly gain in 2016 (+187,000).

 

Employment in food services and drinking places rose by 53,000 in July. The industry has  added 313,000 jobs over the year.

 

Professional and business services added 49,000 jobs in July, in line with its average  monthly job gain over the prior 12 months.

 

In July, health care employment increased by 39,000, with job gains occurring in ambulatory health care services (+30,000) and hospitals (+7,000). Health care has added 327,000 jobs  over the past year.

 

Employment in mining was essentially unchanged in July (+1,000). From a recent low in October 2016 through June, the industry had added an average of 7,000 jobs per month.

 

Employment in other major industries, including construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities,  and government, showed little change over the month.

 

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.5 hours in July. In manufacturing, the workweek was also unchanged at 40.9 hours, and overtime remained at 3.3 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was 33.7 hours for the fourth consecutive month.

 

In July, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 9 cents to $26.36. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 65 cents, or 2.5 percent. In July, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 6 cents to $22.10.

 

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down from +152,000 to +145,000, and the change for June was revised up from +222,000 to +231,000. With these revisions, employment gains in May and June combined were 2,000 more than previously reported. Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 195,000 per month.

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Shocker's picture

We are making slow steps in the right direction
Keep it up and lets get back to more winning.

Layoff / Closing List - http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
Hiring List - http://www.dailyjobfix.com
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jcaz's picture

Go ahead, Janet- explain again why you're not raising, let's hear more bullshit....

Shocker's picture

Said slow steps ahahah. Much better than what we have had in regards to jobs.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

All fixed.

Full speed ahead, damn the torpedoes depression.

Bay of Pigs's picture

You got that right. None of these BLS stats are anywhere near accurate out here on mainstreet. Pure fiction.

847328_3527's picture

If we are at "full employment" then why is there a 2 mile line of applicants for a $10/hr job packing boxes at Amazon?

Can someone pls go out and telll those people standing in 110 degree heat they are making the fed look like liars.

spastic_colon's picture

the fed is not worried about the short-term data.....as economists they are focused on the long-term heal......&^&^?>}

sorry.....my ZH acct was hacked by janet and krugman.

JRobby's picture

The numbers are made up. Trade on them. Everyone else is so.......

40% of retail square footage will be gone in 3 to 5 years. But we need parks to sleep in.

This is what Central Banks and corrupt politicians have brought us. When you get mad enough, do something.

BullyBearish's picture

a YUGE up day in the market today on trump's BEAUTIFUL jobs numbers should erase all doubts of the deep state's warm embrace of the king of comb overs...

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"If we are at "full employment" then why is there a 2 mile line of applicants for a $10/hr job packing boxes at Amazon?"

The solution is obvious. Ignore your lying eyes.

Okienomics's picture

"Of course, keep in mind that the July gain was all in the seasonal adjustment factor: unadjusted, jobs declined by 1.308 million."

Wow, that's BULLISH!  Another Risk On Day!  Hot Damn.

Give Me Some Truth's picture

Such "positive" reports always provide great cover to slam silver. This quickly happened today. At this writing, Silver has dropped from $16.75 to $16.39 in the 30 or so minutes following the release of the report. This is a cliff-dive drop of 36 cents or 1.34 percent.

This is all based on an employment number that was 209,000. The expectation was 180,000 so the report came in 29,000 above expectations.

Now ask yourself what would have happened to the silver price if the opposite numbers had been released. Instead of growing by 29,000 (compared to "expectations"), employment was reported to have declined by 29,000 - from the 180,000 expectation to 151,000.

Question: Does anyone think today's silver price would have RISEN by 36 cents -  from $16.75 to $17.11 in about 30 minutes? At the close of markets, does anyone think the silver price would have been up by at least one percent?

(As usual, I know the answers. I do think it's worthwhile for someone to pose such questions though).

 

Give Me Some Truth's picture

Moral: Silver and gold can always be smashed in a matter of minutes with the release of any government-created (doctored) report. And WILL be smashed as needed. 

The corrollary, when the numbers cannot be spun as "Positive for the economy" and indeed are "negative" gold and silver prices NEVER go up as fast as they go down on the opposite news. And even if they do go up some, they don't stay up for long. 

"Good news" for precious metals is never as good as it should be.

"Bad news" for precious metals (such as a prosaic and untrustworthy government employment report) will always be worse for precious metals than they should be).

Some of us believe both events are by design.

 

 

 

rubiconsolutions's picture

But at least the country has added 327,000 healthcare admin jobs this year. Not doctors, paper pushers - http://www.market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=232281

NickyGall's picture

Here is an interesting look at the deadliest jobs and employers in the United States:

 

https://viableopposition.blogspot.ca/2017/08/americas-deadliest-jobs.html

 

A significant proportion of workers who died on the job in 2015 were temporary, contract or contingent employees, a sector of the jobs market that has grown significantly since the “end” of the Great Recession.

A. Boaty's picture

No problem for a hawkish Fed, eh, Tyler?

LoneStarHog's picture

Birth/Death ADDED 158,000 PHANTOM jobs.

HardAssets's picture

If youre gonna lie, - LIE BIG.

847328_3527's picture

The only plausible explanation in this environment is that the Russians are influencing the job markets.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

And clearly they hacked the BLS as well.

JRobby's picture

So that means died while still employed (on the job preferably) then replaced by a worker earning 50% less?

So the increasing hourly is a bigger lie than the number of jobs added. Who am I to argue the magnitude of lies at this point?

Sky flyer's picture

Woohoo! Green shoots Friday it is. Full faith and credit muthafuckers.

ejmoosa's picture

For the last 7 yearly periods ending in July, this is the second weakest 12 month number for annual job growth...yet all is great!

2011 1.20%

2012 1.64%

2013 1.66%

2014 1.95%

2015 2.10%

2016 1.71%

2017 1.47%

 

ejmoosa's picture

That's 66 jobs per county in the US per month, by the way. or just over 2 jobs per day per county.  

Think about that.

Can you feel the growth?  Can you even see it?

Sliced into ribbons's picture

Does Trump believe these numbers now?

ejmoosa's picture

The numbers are actually worse than last year yet he loves them.  Irrational as hell.

 

For those that cannot recall, July 2016 was 252k.  

totenkopf88's picture

Janet will be reappointed to another term next year as Fed President by Trump

FreeShitter's picture

He doesnt have to, his job is to keep YOU into believing it. They dont call it 'Full faith and credit" for nothing.

strangeglove's picture

This Just in...209,000 Medical Marijuana Dispensaries opened last month

Give Me Some Truth's picture

Re: Marijuana "stores" opening ...

... But AG Sessions is working around the clock to close these.

Still Losing Money's picture

so 6 months ago the BLS was all BS and the numbers were fake etec and now, SHAZAAM it's a miralce, the numbers are gospel under trump. give me a break. they were BS beore and the are BS now. and keep your bs MAGA trump it's different this time crap to yourself and no I am NOT a hillary supporter or a cruz bot, I just don't have my nose a mile up the harido's butt

Give Me Some Truth's picture

Common sense, where art thou?

Gert_B_Frobe's picture

CNN headline news scroll ... Obama's job creation inititives taking hold

Bill of Rights's picture

Gee if the whining in this thread gets any louder I'm gonna sell tissues for a $1 a piece.

Racer's picture

People are sick and tired of being lied to!!!

Bill of Rights's picture

Get the fuck outta here, how old are you ? Im 50 and not a single fucken thing has changed in all my 50 years. All you whiners want to do something then get the fuck out from your dorm room key boards and do it otherwise suck it up snowflakes nothing will change until you PHYSICALLY make the effort to make it happen.

Trust me like the past TPTB are laughing at you like they laughed at us all these years....

Peter K's picture

This appears to be a "Trump goldilocks" recovery.

Or is a a Trumpilocks recovery?

 

Racer's picture

Lies, lies and more lies from the Bloody Liars and Sh!ts office

Racer's picture

"and from the recalculation of seasonal factors."

 

Says it all!

VW Nerd's picture

So true.   "seasonal factors", "adjustments", "substitutions", "sprinkling of fairy dust"....you're witnessing common core economics.  Think "pretend and make believe".

FreeShitter's picture

Its Friday bitchez, mega parties in the hampsteins...

Give Me Some Truth's picture

Now comes the in-depth analysis of the "official" numbers where we learn some of the areas that just don't add up. Not that this matters. "They" can just pick numbers out of the sky, which is probably what they do.

Retail Apocalypse - great for employment!

States and cities facing defaults and budget crises - great for employment as this causes them to go on a hiring frenzy.

Auto makers freezing assembly lines due to lack of sales, huge inventory - great for employment!

People cutting back on dining out - great for waitresses and bar tenders!

The press corps down-sizing at ever quicker pace - this is good for employment

Banks closing branches, especially in smaller towns - what a boost for employment!

Rising minimum wages in all kinds of cities and states - always good for an employment surge

More robots and automation - this helps employment ...

.... Common sense - completely disappearing. But Excellent and needed if everyone is to accept all goverment-created economic numbers as "gospel."

Would they lie to us? Would they lie to us, baby? Would they say something that wasn't true?

 

Catahoula's picture

Eat shit Ron Insana!

adr's picture

When the manufactured recovery was in danger of falling apart in 2010, reported job losses were banned. 

Every negative economic number was changed to positive any way they could. 

It is statistically impossible to go seven straight years without a single month of total job losses. Seasonal temp workers assure that there will always be a few million jobs lost at different points of the year. 

Remember how the majority of job gains went to people over 55. Well many of them are dying off and those jobs are either being replaced or just plain eliminated. A replacement is not a gain. 

Give Me Some Truth's picture

Remember: When things get really serious, what's the plan?

Tell the people the truth?

any_mouse's picture

I'll wait for the revised July numbers.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Bingo, that corner keeps getting smaller, but never small enough.

Equities at all time highs (for years)

We have had full employment (for years)

plenty of inflation (especially in REAL terms, but now even the fed's own BS metric)

 

Good news for years all around and yet the bankers and financiers still have access to essentially TRILLIONS of FREE MONEY (near ZIRP and ZIRP/NIRP) in the western world!!!!!

 

Better RAISE THOSE RATE MR. YELLEN!!!!!!

 

"Full Faith and Credit"

 

tick tock you criminal motherfuckers

DrBrown's picture

Another pack of lies from the BLS. Of the 209K jobs a full 158K were added by the phony birth/death model.