Irma Turning Into Monster Hurricane: "Highest Windspeed Forecasts I've Ever Seen"

Tyler Durden's picture

Hurricane Irma continues to strengthen much faster than pretty much any computer model predicted as of yesterday or even this morning.  Per the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest update, Irma is currently a Cat-3 storm with sustained winds of 115 mph but is expected to strengthen to a devastating Cat-5 with winds that could top out at 180 mph or more.  Here is the latest from the NHC as of 5PM EST:

Irma has become an impressive hurricane with intense eyewall convection surrounding a small eye.  Satellite estimates continue to rapidly rise, and the Dvorak classifications from both TAFB & SAB support an initial wind speed of 100 kt.  This is a remarkable 50-kt increase from yesterday at this time.

 

Irma continues moving west-northwestward, now at about 10 kt. There has been no change to the forecast philosophy, with the hurricane likely to turn westward and west-southwestward over the next few days due to a building ridge over the central Atlantic.  At long range, however, model guidance is not in good agreement on the strength of the ridge, resulting in some significant north-south differences in the global models.  I am inclined to stay on the southwestern side of the model guidance, given the rather consistent forecasts of the ECMWF and its ensemble.  In addition, the strongest members of the recent ensembles are on the southern side on the consensus, giving some confidence in that approach.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/2100Z 17.3N  34.8W  100 KT 115 MPH

12H  01/0600Z 17.8N  36.2W  105 KT 120 MPH

24H  01/1800Z 18.2N  38.3W  105 KT 120 MPH

36H  02/0600Z 18.3N  40.7W  105 KT 120 MPH

48H  02/1800Z 17.9N  42.9W  105 KT 120 MPH

72H  03/1800Z 16.8N  47.5W  110 KT 125 MPH

96H  04/1800Z 16.0N  52.0W  115 KT 130 MPH

120H  05/1800Z 16.5N  56.5W  120 KT 140 MPH

As of now, Irma remains in the far eastern Atlantic ocean and is moving west at roughly 11.5 mph.  Based on current projections, the storm will make its first landfall in the eastern Caribbean sometime toward the middle of next week.

IRMA

Longer term computer models still vary widely but suggest that Irma will make landfall in the U.S. either in the Gulf of Mexico or Florida.  Meteorological Scientist Michael Ventrice of the Weather Channel is forecasting windspeeds of up to 180 mph, which he described as the "highest windspeed forecasts I've ever seen in my 10 yrs of Atlantic hurricane forecasting."

In a separate tweet, Ventrice had the following troubling comment: "Wow, a number of ECMWF EPS members show a maximum-sustained windspeed of 180+mph for #Irma, rivaling Hurricane #Allen (1980) for record wind"

The Weather Channel meteorologist also calculated the odds for a landfall along the eastern seaboard at 30%.

Meanwhile, the Weather Channel has the "most likely" path of Irma passing directly over Antigua, Puerto Rico and Domincan Republic toward the middle of next week.

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old naughty's picture

Irma la douce... this one not sweet at all.

Perhaps forecasters can turn astrologers as well?

JRobby's picture

He has a small place in Coleman FL now until 2120

Ignatius's picture

"Highest Wind Speed Forecast"

Hurricane Irma is gonna be bigger than Harvey?

Is it politically incorrect to infer that the woman is gonna get the last word in and we'll all damn well remember it?

vealparm's picture

Maybe it will obliterate Jeffy Epstein's Pedo Island...........Please.

KJWqonfo7's picture

Stanford used to provide waterproof phones for their support staff while they were on call. Poor bastards had to shower with them!!!

Son of Loki's picture

"Highest winds I ever seen...."

The author has evidently never stood behind Cankles when she farts.

jeff montanye's picture

legacy media revenue shortfalls?

trump?

pupton's picture

They fly planes into it every few hours. That's how they measure windspeed.  It strengthened a lot between flights from the looks of it.

The Gun Is Good's picture

The Bride of Frankenstorm....

HumanMan's picture

I've been watching this since it was a tropical wave coming off africa, because the conditions have perfect. Winds, sea temps, fronts, etc...all perfect to develop a monster. This became a tropical storm early wed morning, and grew to cat 2 in the following 24 hours. I'm not one for cyclone hype, at all, but this one has me genuinely concerned for whomever takes the landfall.

Cynicles II's picture

magik

...or the Russians did it

therover's picture

Thanks alot...just took a big swig from the water bottle and spit it all over the screen laughing when I read the word Hampsteins !

TheRideNeverEnds's picture

Bullish!

We haven't seen such economic stimulus since 9-11!!

DOW 36,000 by next year if this keeps up!

Ajax-1's picture

Agreed, they deserve it for supporting Hillary.

Think for yourself's picture

Dear God, just let Gartman forecast that this storm will be mild and not hit D.C.

JRobby's picture

No forecasters (ones with credibility, track records, career accomplishments) will make any forecasts about possible track until after the weekend. It's too early to forecast track.

But that doesn't stop the hacks and scaremongers for a second.

CurveBall's picture

Been following Irma for a couple days now https://www.ventusky.com/?p=39.4;-72.3;3&l=rain-3h&t=20170910/06 they have been pretty accurate so far. The forecast on their is showing landfall on the 9th or 10th between the carolinas and new York and predicitIng a cat5 with sustained winds of 170MPH. The forecast currently is up to the 10th and not past, obviously a lot can change in that time but from my understating there's a Bermuda high, I believe it's called, and it's supposed to cause Irma to go west and then north east.

CurveBall's picture

Been following Irma for a couple days now https://www.ventusky.com/?p=39.4;-72.3;3&l=rain-3h&t=20170910/06 they have been pretty accurate so far. The forecast on their is showing landfall on the 9th or 10th between the carolinas and new York and predicitIng a cat5 with sustained winds of 170MPH. The forecast currently is up to the 10th and not past, obviously a lot can change in that time but from my understating there's a Bermuda high, I believe it's called, and it's supposed to cause Irma to go west and then north east.

Jimmy Jimmereeno's picture

I almost never vote but you get my up arrow.  A 10-year perspective about hurricanes - what total BS.

Maximeme Q's picture

Literally the highest wind speed forecast since Lehman.

Creative_Destruct's picture

"Highest winds in my ten years of forecasting"

Well ya, given that the fastest wind speed of a hurricane during the last 10 years was IKE, 2008, with a peak intensity of 145 mph.

This guy ain't a long-time forecaster.

In 2005 Wilma, which struck Fl, reached a peak intensity over water of 185 mph (Cat5); at landfall was a CAT 3.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/outreach/history/

And the highest wind speed at landfall was Camile in 1969, estimated windspeed at landfall 190-200 mp (BEFORE the big ALGORE whoop over global warming).

This shit happens. It sucks, it's a natural phenomenon, it's not new, not the end of the world, and not some superstitious "judgement" laid by some mysterious higher power... at least not that can be proved empirically.


Bigern's picture

Judgement is witheld until the end. However, warnings are given, for those whose eyes have not been shut. The United States receives a duo of eclipses, seven years apart, creating a giant X across the land. This same land is roiled in division across the old boundaries of division. The first eclipse has divided north from south. This is a warning that without repentance, the land will become physically divided as it has already become spiritually divided. 

Next we get Harvey, deep in the heart of Texas, the heart of the USA for that matter. Out of her flows the lifeblood of the nation. Warning.

This new one is spinning up, looking for something to devour. North Korea and her cohorts are similarly positioned. They just won't go away quietly. They aren't going away. These eclipses bracket a period that is only beginning, with these storms. The Relation 12 sign comes next month. The truth requires no defense.

Why is NASA involved in Yellowstone mitigation? Why is virtually all space data under squeaky control by NASA, European Space Agency, and Vatican control? There is no such thing as raw unfiltered *live* data from the ISS, telescopes, satellites, space probes, or observatories. We all know this. Why are the data streams manipulated?

Something anomalous from space is causing system-wide disruptions across the spectrum of physics and cosmology.

Anomalous is a secular explanation for an instrument of the Father's will.

What is amazing is that even the darkest luciferians believe in Him, yet more children today believe in "aliens" than angels.

Some confusion in juxtaposition there. Conditioning is reaching its zenith.

 

Tiwin's picture

Ya ' all got some short mammaries round there ZH.....ya only gotsta go back 11 months!

Heres a taste via the good ole NHC and sorry for the cut n paste but it seemed necessary

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 An Air Force reconnaissance plane recently measured a peak SFMR wind of 143 kt and then 138 kt during this mission's eye penetrations. Furthermore, the satellite presentation has improved considerably with a distinct eye surrounded by a ring of very deep convection. The raw objective T-numbers from UW-CIMSS have been above 7.0 since 2100 UTC. On this basis, the initial intensity has been increased to 140 kt, making Matthew a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This is the first Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin since Hurricane Felix in 2007. Matthew probably is near its peak intensity and will likely maintain a similar strength during the next 12 hours or so. Data from the reconnaissance plane show an incipient outer band of maximum winds, indicating that an eyewall replacement cycle could occur soon. This should result in fluctuations in intensity, and given that southwesterly shear is still affecting the cyclone, some weakening is anticipated. However, Matthew is forecast to be a category 4 hurricane by the time it moves near Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Some additional weakening is expected over the high terrain of Cuba. It is noted that none the guidance ever indicated the rapid strengthening of Matthew. Matthew is still moving south of due west or 265 degrees at 6 kt steered by a strong high pressure system over the western Atlantic. In about 12 hours, the hurricane should be on the western edge of the high and ahead of a deepening trough over the Gulf of Mexico. This steering pattern should force Matthew to turn northwestward and then northward at about 5 to 10 kt. The track guidance has been very consistent with this scenario, and there are no reasons to deviate much from the previous NHC forecast. At the end of the forecast period, when Matthew is expected to be in the Bahamas, the track models are in less agreement with both track and speed, increasing the uncertainty in the forecast. The NHC forecast follows closely the multi-model consensus TVCN and TVCX. It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5. Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts from Matthew in Florida. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 13.3N 72.3W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 13.3N 73.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 13.7N 74.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 14.6N 75.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 16.0N 76.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 19.0N 76.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 23.1N 76.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 26.0N 76.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
Tiwin's picture

......Just like a newly minted Finance Major who lands a job at his uncles hedge firm...."ive never seen a 3 percent crash like this!"

R2U2's picture

Great stuff but here's a better one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNeOTOytEeA

To the ZH snowflakes who can't handle the idea weather manipulation: FUCK YOU.

 

 

Tiwin's picture

There is a huge difference between manipulation and control. YES , anyone with half a brain can see the chemtrails. It is easy to fantasize about SAMs taking out the motherfuckers.

Control? No fucking way, not yet , not of  a hurricane.

Sci-Fi

 The biggest weather manipulation going is the exaggeration of high temperatures.

We have been hearing AGW bullshit for fifteen years now FIFTEEN YEARS , houldnt sea level be at least ten feet higher by now? Thats what they said then! How far has sealevel risen , NOT A FUCKING CENTIMETER.

Your chemtrails are probably more about POISONING THE GOYIM under the disguise of weather manipulation.

Now call me a snowflake. Ive been called a liberal here too , climate change agent? omg.

youtube M4GW

Secret Weapon's picture

Dear Fellow Hedgers, My daughter Jenna and her fiance lost their home and belongings to Hurricane Harvey. The waters came into their home while they were sleeping and they barely got out with their lives.  They are both hard working decent people who have generously given of themselves in the past in order to help others.  If you do not have friends or family members who have been impacted by this storm I would ask that you please consider donating something to their Go Fund Me page.  Anything you could do would be greatly appreciated and please keep Texas in your prayers.  Sincerely, Secret.

https://www.gofundme.com/jenna-rodney

ET's picture

At this time it would be prudent to pack a bugout bag with emergency supplies and to place important documents in watertight bags.

algol_dog's picture

Get ready for more rhetoric from the climiteers ....

Gatto's picture

Actually Houston would be the cheapest place for it to hit, we're paying to fix those houses already, no new damage!

fleur de lis's picture

Agreed.

That was the first thing that crossed my mind, too.

I would not put it past our psychotic Swampites to make a naturally bad hurricaine that much worse.

 

Normalcy Bias's picture

Well, isn't it strange there's the "Unprecedented Hurricane Drought" per WaPo (yeah, it's a rag, I get it), and then just after the election didn't go the Deep State's way, the possible hyperactivity?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/08/04/the-u-s-coast-is-in-an-unprecedented-hurricane-drought-why-this-is-terrifying/

Proofreder's picture

Obvious -

Trumps' fault.

Make America Groan Again

kadoka's picture

So Trump pulls out of the Paris Climate deal and suddenly there are two huge hurricanes.  What else would explain this?  There were no major huricanes during Obummers watch.  It has to be Trump's fault.  (sarc)

azusgm's picture

Well, close. It must be Melania's fault for wearing high heels across the lawn to Marine One. What could be more offensive to God than that? /sarc

What is not /sarc is that Planned Parenthood Gulf Coast had all of their locations up and running today and will be open tomorrow. They do plan to take a break for the Labor Day weekend. Poor babies.

Liberty2012's picture

I think hurricane activity follows the 11 year (or 22 year) sunspot activity cycle. We are now on the upswing again.

Dirtnapper's picture

Expect things to get worse as the ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) shifts as we enter into a Grand Solar Minimum.  Check this Frost Warning for Michigan's UP: https://www.wunderground.com/US/MI/005.html?hdf=1

Ms No's picture

You too?  Shit, there is a ton of people on here that believe that.  That was one of the few conspiracies I didn't believe.  Maybe I should have looked into it more. 

I still don't believe that aliens are butt probing people though.  Actually..... with our recent luck that is probably happening too.  It appears we are an unlucky species.  Elvis is definitely dead though.  Dead. as. f*ck.  That is certain.  Pretty much every other conspiracy theory is probably true.  There are so few left unsubstantiated anymore.

 

Bollixed's picture

If you don't believe that aliens are butt probing people than you've obviously never been to a gay bar in Los Angeles...

lil dirtball's picture

> Elvis is definitely dead though.

Don't be so hasty.

http://mileswmathis.com/elvis.pdf

Bigern's picture

Alien...Angel, what's the difference except the narrative? Both are by definition extraterrestrials. Both have capabilities far exceeding ours.

 

The difference is that aliens have not visited earth. The term "alien" was hijacked, and superimposed on the template of the angelic being. Many were revered as gods in ancient times.

Now, since the Darwin agenda, the beings formerly known as angels (by the western scientific world) are transformed into evolutionary creatures from other worlds. It is no coincidence that fallen angel knowledge and subsequent technology, passed on to men, has been incorporated into the lie, meshing perfectly with requirements necessary to make the alien narrative believable.

The subjugation of the angels by the alien agenda was a stroke of genius for generating passion and desire toward the demonic. There has been nothing short of an explosion of such since 1947. The same year the Dead Sea Scrolls were discovered. That is no coincidence, considering some of the texts authenticated.

The luciferian timetable was moved up, once these texts were returned to public consumption, in prophetic manner. Too much truth had been revealed to not attempt a counter.

The city of angels is now the city of Lot's wife.

Get out now and don't look back.

 

Tiwin's picture

Why dont our allmighty haarpists just spin up cat5 after Cat5 and steer them right into Syria? Until the regime topples? Same with NKorea? Supertyphoon after supertyphoon direct hits  bye bye fat guy, NO anti-war backlash from the protestors in San Francisco.

Bwahhhaaaahhaaaaa!!!!

seek's picture

HAARP was offline for a few years, then the facility was tranferred to University of Alaska Fairbanks, and ironically had an open house not two weeks ago.

It's been relicensed for operation. The did some tests in February but no idea of current schedule.

Normalcy Bias's picture

Hmmm...Well whadya know. Thanks for the interesting info.

azusgm's picture

Pardon me, but did they have their weather modification license that is required under the Texas Agricultural Code?

No kidding. Not at all.

http://www.statutes.legis.state.tx.us/DocViewer.aspx?DocKey=AG%2fAG.301&...

If we got HAARP'ed, Texas should sue. It is a Texas law, so the venue would be one or more Texas district courts.

Be afraid, HAARPsters.