Irma Turning Into Monster Hurricane: "Highest Windspeed Forecasts I've Ever Seen"

Tyler Durden's picture

Hurricane Irma continues to strengthen much faster than pretty much any computer model predicted as of yesterday or even this morning.  Per the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest update, Irma is currently a Cat-3 storm with sustained winds of 115 mph but is expected to strengthen to a devastating Cat-5 with winds that could top out at 180 mph or more.  Here is the latest from the NHC as of 5PM EST:

Irma has become an impressive hurricane with intense eyewall convection surrounding a small eye.  Satellite estimates continue to rapidly rise, and the Dvorak classifications from both TAFB & SAB support an initial wind speed of 100 kt.  This is a remarkable 50-kt increase from yesterday at this time.


Irma continues moving west-northwestward, now at about 10 kt. There has been no change to the forecast philosophy, with the hurricane likely to turn westward and west-southwestward over the next few days due to a building ridge over the central Atlantic.  At long range, however, model guidance is not in good agreement on the strength of the ridge, resulting in some significant north-south differences in the global models.  I am inclined to stay on the southwestern side of the model guidance, given the rather consistent forecasts of the ECMWF and its ensemble.  In addition, the strongest members of the recent ensembles are on the southern side on the consensus, giving some confidence in that approach.



INIT  31/2100Z 17.3N  34.8W  100 KT 115 MPH

12H  01/0600Z 17.8N  36.2W  105 KT 120 MPH

24H  01/1800Z 18.2N  38.3W  105 KT 120 MPH

36H  02/0600Z 18.3N  40.7W  105 KT 120 MPH

48H  02/1800Z 17.9N  42.9W  105 KT 120 MPH

72H  03/1800Z 16.8N  47.5W  110 KT 125 MPH

96H  04/1800Z 16.0N  52.0W  115 KT 130 MPH

120H  05/1800Z 16.5N  56.5W  120 KT 140 MPH

As of now, Irma remains in the far eastern Atlantic ocean and is moving west at roughly 11.5 mph.  Based on current projections, the storm will make its first landfall in the eastern Caribbean sometime toward the middle of next week.


Longer term computer models still vary widely but suggest that Irma will make landfall in the U.S. either in the Gulf of Mexico or Florida.  Meteorological Scientist Michael Ventrice of the Weather Channel is forecasting windspeeds of up to 180 mph, which he described as the "highest windspeed forecasts I've ever seen in my 10 yrs of Atlantic hurricane forecasting."

In a separate tweet, Ventrice had the following troubling comment: "Wow, a number of ECMWF EPS members show a maximum-sustained windspeed of 180+mph for #Irma, rivaling Hurricane #Allen (1980) for record wind"

The Weather Channel meteorologist also calculated the odds for a landfall along the eastern seaboard at 30%.

Meanwhile, the Weather Channel has the "most likely" path of Irma passing directly over Antigua, Puerto Rico and Domincan Republic toward the middle of next week.

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post turtle saver's picture

if they're comparing this storm to Allen then it's gonna be one bad mamma jamma of a storm... I remember that and none of those memories are good...

HRClinton's picture

Isn't that Google's motto?  

Do no HAARP.

holmes's picture

"Longer term computer models still vary widely but suggest that Irma will make landfall in the U.S. either in the Gulf of Mexico or Florida".

I was thinking it was going to go around South America and nail Japan right in the keister.

Pumpkin's picture

Trump needs to make certain that the HAARP facilities are inactive.


This is how the money changers inject 'money' into the economy of the average man.  They destroy his house and force him to rebuild or relocate.

MozartIII's picture

Says a 10 year huricain forcast veteran. Get the guy some rope, so we can add to the drama!

cesarsp_us's picture

Time to buy a boat

boattrash's picture

Fuck buying a boat....just let people pay you good money to take care of theirs.

Edit; But if you insist, make it a helluva boat. Does anybody remember "El Faro" a 790 ft ship that went down in 2015 in Hurricane Joaquin? The sea can be merciless...

Bigly's picture

I saw the Athena docked in CHS in May. I heard it was for sale. That is more my speed! ;)

Oliver Klozoff's picture

They tend to sink, I've found out.

skinwalker's picture

If you do, make sure to load your stack before taking it out.

jeff montanye's picture

the stack can be said to be aboard but should really be in a dry vault underground.

Keyser's picture

"highest windspeed forecasts I've ever seen in my 10 yrs of Atlantic hurricane forecasting."

There hasn't been a significant Atlantic or a Gulf huricane in 10 years...

tmosley's picture

I came here to post this.

Why are these children being put on a pedestal as though they have any fucking experience? 

Keyser's picture

I just wanted that thank the miscreants that down-voted my post... It only proves just how ignorant you really are... Denying reality works for a while, until it bites you in the ass... 

divingengineer's picture

There's another downie for crying about it.
Man up, it's fight club.

Keyser's picture

Not crying, wearing it as a badge of courage... In the immortal words of Dubya, you are either with us or you are against us... It's really that simple when it comes down to taking sides... 

deoldefarte's picture

Personally, I have an open mind about forecasts; longivity does not automatically make one wiser.

Einstein formulated his theories while still a young man, working for the Patent office.

I will evaluate (form an opininion) on your projections, after hurricane landfall next week.

On the same token, all my physicians are of younger age...they seem to be open to the

patient's suggestions, unlike the old farts that think they are Gods.  So far this system

worked; I am 80 and still of good health; even play/hack golf every week. But that is

just moa.

Oliver Klozoff's picture


Leave MsCreant alone!

JRobby's picture

Just trolls in Mom's basement coating their tranny parts with marshmallow fluff.

Surprising though on a Friday. They are usually out in their generously vented latex rubber suits at the trendy imbibing spot shrieking with their buds after a long week of trolling?

Turin Turambar's picture

I always wonder the same thing.  This is especially true of the generic media.  Have you ever meet any journalism majors in college?  I met more than a couple, and they weren't very bright.  Between them and education majors, I'd have to flip a coin to pick between the dimmest of the two.  SMH  One group of dummies propagandize and brainwash children for 12+ years beginning at the tender age of 6 or 7, while the other group programs their parents 24/7 via MSM.  99% of people don't stand a chance of breaking their minds free of their tentacles, much less learn how to think independently and critically.  Western civilization is on an accelerated decline into the trash heap of history.  :-(

Tugg McFancy's picture

It's less about facts than it's ever been and more about the big nasty headline.

"Highest windspeeds in 10 years" is A+ work when the average person won't consider nothing has happened in 10 years.

Whoa Dammit's picture

Here's the Orwellean statement on the TX gas shortage that is being repeated by the MSM, CEO's and politicans verbatem to "explain" the problem (and of course as always blame the people). I'm sure some journo major in a state  .gov press office came up with this:


"San Antonio, there is no gas shortage," Nirenberg said. "As the result of delayed refinery operations caused by Hurricane Harvey, some stations have run low on gas."

WakeUpPeeeeeople's picture

I've heard that in Austin, some stations have run out of gas and those with gas have long lines forming.

AnarchyInc's picture

You can't find gas anywhere in this damn city full of worthless leftist global warming fanatics who rushed out to fill their yukons at the first rumor of shortages on NPR this morning. I hate Austin and the idiots here so bad.

azusgm's picture

The restaurants are good though.

dirty fingernails's picture

I'd put journalism majors a notch above education, from my experience. Statistically, your probably right because I have known a few brilliant reachers but most were mediocre at best.

Son of Loki's picture

I sort of agree put I'd put both a tiny notch above Women and Gender Studies.

general ambivalent's picture

Hurricane was just last week. Cat. 4. And Cat. 5 was just last year.

Can you really be this dumb?

lil dirtball's picture

> Can you really be this dumb?

Sing along ...

What's in your head
In your head.
ZHombie, ZHombie, ZHombie ei, ei, ei

What's in your head
In your head.
ZHombie, ZHombie, ZHombie ei, ei, ei

Tiwin's picture

Jeezhus are you serious? 48 upvotes too

There have been EIGHT Cat 4s and one Cat 5 in the Atlantic basin -since 2010

 That is nine 'significant' storms in 8 years

Americans are the dumbest boxes full of rocks  on this planet. Ya all cant even remember Cat5 Matthew from 11 months ago.

Betcha remember the score of last years Stupor Bowl tho.

Bank_sters's picture

D.C. or bust!  Go get em, Irma.

rbianco3's picture

Was secretly hoping it could make it as far North as DC and not lose steam.

Spin up Irma baby. 

Cabreado's picture

10 years?  Wow.

How one has the nerve to even say that, in the context... THAT is the scary part...

ETA: and I can't help but ask: why is ZH participating in this pathetic dynamic -- fearmongering, etc ?

general ambivalent's picture

It would be the equivalent of the strongest storm in recorded history. So yes, it is very significant. If that is his professional career, then 10 years is all he can say. It doesn't lessen the significance, it is just a formality.

Please use some basic logic, people.

Cabreado's picture

I notice you are adept at missing underlying points.

But thanks for your advice... I will apply "logic" to the situation, and because I'm on the coast in the 10,000+ mile swath of model-forecast landfall 10 days from now, I'll be sure to get myself prepared.  

Tiwin's picture

As a storm fan , I find it more entertaining than race-baiting or qwazy Kollege Kidz PC Capers, and infinitely more stimulating than or NWOstooge Ramirez cartoons

RawPawg's picture

might wanna hold off on the HQ Care Pakage for Houston,Donny Boy

Oliver Klozoff's picture

Just the start of years of severe weather events.

2018 will be a doozy. Hope y'all are prepping. Learn especially how to grow food indoors. LED's are now cheap enough and efficient enough to run on solar or most other alts.

Just don't count too much on solar. /snark

CNONC's picture

Serious question.  Have you tried growing with LEDs? 

Oliver Klozoff's picture

I'm doing it now, just a few plants atm. Moringa trees. Pruning, both leaf and root, should keep them contained though my bugout has a 10 ft ceiling.

Chadwick cherry tomatoes do well under leds's. Not much caloric value but great trade potential.

Need to experiment soon with some grain crop, short stemmed quinoa or sorghum or corn perhaps. Upland rice has a long maturation time, too long it seems but does well also.

100 watt led's(edit: equivalent) with the plastic domes removed have led projectors mounted directionally are a good balance between cost and performance and put out a lot of light. Doesn't matter what temp, 1500 - 1600 lumens at 15 watts produces strong growth.

It's difficult to forsee a way to grow a significant portion of a family's diet this way but necessity owes me big time.

Based on global weather related crop losses this year alone, expect food prices to soar.


azusgm's picture

LOL. My potted mandarin orange tree is so confused. First it sprouted a branch from the root stock. Now, it must have decided that it is spring again and has bloomed.

Oliver Klozoff's picture

I have both a meyer lemon and a lime tree that dropped many leaves over the winter. They were at the edge of the lighted area and received less light there. Have to expand my system this fall.

RawPawg's picture

You're Gonna need a bigger bailout,Capt Don

DogeCoin's picture

When it rains, it really pours. Wow, time to get wrekt.

Mr. Pain's picture

Put a tent up on the pentagons property. It wont flood there!

Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture

But it might get hit by a cruise missle!