Where The September Jobs Were: Waiter And Bartender Devastation

Tyler Durden's picture

The September jobs report was a bizarre exercise in "goalseeked" data: from the first drop in Establishment Survey payrolls in 7 years, to the near record monthly surge in full-time jobs and Household Survey employment, to the erroneous calculation in average hourly earnings, virtually everything about the latest payrolls report was off.

Still, accurate or fabricated, here is the breakdown of the seasonally-adjusted job gains and losses that took place in the hurricane-impacted month.

As SouthBay Research points out, the biggest sign of Hurricane drag was found in Leisure and Hospitality which plunged by -111K, a drop due to a loss of 105K waiter and bartender jobs: the one category that for the past 7 years was the "plough hourse" of the so-called US recovery; this was the worst monthly drop in history for this category.

And while we find it delightfully ironic that in the one month in which waiters/bartenders lost the most jobs on record is when average wages (allegedly) soared, the September drop will be revised in the coming days and should move higher next month. After all, many people fleeing Florida and Houston had to stay in hotels and motels, for example.  And certainly eat out more.

Some other September jobs highlights:

  • Goods Production +9K (as expected): Not Hurricane impacted.  The reflation trade has ended and factories are now coasting.
  • Trade, Transportation: +26K (as expected): Slightly hurricane impacted.  Building supplies up (+5K), for example.  Also trucking up +9K as suppliers raced to ensure shipments were not impacted.
  • Professional Services: +12K (Slightly below expectations): Softer consulting and management payrolls brought the figure down
  • Education: +14K (as expected)
  • Healthcare: +13K (much lower than expected)  Social Assistance (emergency care, childcare, etc) was 30K below my data.  Given the level of emergency support, this is unusual...
  • Government: +7K. No hurricane impact and in line with expectations.
  • Information: -9K. A surprising drop in what has traditionally been one of the best paying job sectors.
  • Leisure/Hospitality: -111K (much lower than expected)  Very hurricane impacted.  This will likely be revised up

Below is a breakdown of the monthly changes across the main job categories in September:

And from Bloomberg, here are the industries with the highest and lowest rates of employment growth for the most recent month. Additionally, monthly growth rates are shown for the prior year. The latest month’s figures are highlighted. Wage data are shown when available

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Dr. Richard Head's picture

result of hurricane or result of serfs with no more credit available to go out to eat?


lester1's picture

BLS finally posting real job numbers? They did everything they could for 8 years to lie and spin for Obama. Now it's time to drop the hammer on Trump. Do I got that right ?

FreeShitter's picture

You mean Trump is different this time?

I am Jobe's picture

Restaurant Food is awful . I see lots of fat folks in Texas who can afford to lose weight. Holy Cow Texas women and Men are fucking fat. 

E.F. Mutton's picture

Okie-Arkie land is the same.  Drive by any Golden Corral and you can see why - always packed in at the trough. 

And Wal-Mart looks like an Electric Cart NASCAR qualifier (Behemoth Division) on any given weekend. 

Silver Savior's picture

Electric carts are creepy to me. I can't stand the sound. 

tmosley's picture

High carb, low fat foods laced with hunger promoting additives will do that to you.

We were lied to for many years. It will take many more for us to overcome the societal inertia associated with that.

People will continue getting fatter so long as there is a "low fat" section in the grocery store. The French resisted the trend for a long time thanks to their love of their traditional cuisine, which was very high in fat. But even they are succumbing now. 

E.F. Mutton's picture

High carb, low fat foods laced with hunger promoting additives will do that to you.

I've always suspected there were additives that do this, and knowing the average greed of any given corporation I'm not surprised.

When I got healthy and gave up eating crap, I had the hardest time kicking carbs and was constantly hungry for about 3 weeks, I remember likening it to an addiction.  Seriously.

Pollygotacracker's picture

I am thin. I have never touched 'diet' foods. I eat nothing but real, preferably unsalted, butter. I eat cheese, bacon, cream cheese, half & half, ice cream, (only the very best quality high fat). It is the carbs that make you fat. I am active. But, if I start to gain a little weight I cut back on carbs. Skip the bread, noodles, pasta, crackers, rice, etc. That is the stuff that makes you fat. Also, I eat a lot of high quality dark chocolate. My favorite desert...accompanied by a glass of Cockburns Late Bottled Vintage Porto. Heaven.

hendrik1730's picture

I am thin too. 64 years old. NEVER on a diet. I very much like french fries, mayo, steak, pasta, chocolates, cheese, absolutely not mad about most "healthy" stuff like salads, eat seldom fruits, like beer, gin tonic, mojito and wine and I am almost NEVER taken ill. But I can NOT eat anything when my hunger feeling has gone. NOTHING. I eat 1.5 times a day - no breakfast, at noon a warm meal and at dinnertime something "smallish" - and I often skip it. Sometimes, however, I get a desire to eat ( e.g. ) apples. Then I eat apples during 1-2 days, done. The desire for apples goes away.

According to the medics, I should have died years ago. I never take medication unless absolutely necessary ( after having an operation on my hand e.g., painkillers, for 3 days, then I stopped taking them while the doctors prescribed them for a full week ). Flue or a bad cold? Just wear it out. 

I think one should live according to what one's body tells you and stay away as far as possible from medication. Train your immune system. Don't go into extreme sports. All this is just common sense.

Hal n back's picture

whats really amazing is administrations come and go , but not much changes at BLS.

Juggernaut x2's picture

How fucking stupid is Eddie Lampert to loan Sears $100M?

buzzsaw99's picture

sears was once worth billions and lampert was worth zero.  now lampert is worth billions and sears is worth zero.  you think lampert is the stupid one?

besnook's picture

he is fucking brilliant if you see what he is doing. he is purposely driving sears kmart to bankruptcy so he can buy it back for pennies as the primary lienholder.

buzzsaw99's picture

i ordered a bloody mary last time out.  got served a margarita.  why is this green i asked?  the bartender replied:  "i like margaritas".  i shit you not.

Silver Savior's picture

The best local bar/club in my town now closes on Saturday nights due to lack of customers. On Friday nights it's slow then picks up a little between 11pm and 1 in the morning. 

I remember there used to be three separate bars open in the place and it was packed starting at 9pm. I know people's rents have doubled since then and I suspect that's the leading reason why. 

Things are getting very bad. I suspect this is not just hurricane related. It's the general shitshow of an economy we have. It just gets worse. 

besnook's picture

a dui charge is so expensive now no one wants to take a chance of getting stopped by the cops. bars are offering designated driver services to retain customers.

Seasmoke's picture

When things get really bad. You must lie. They truly believe this. And it will be the excuse they use when it collapses. 

Pernicious Gold Phallusy's picture

Nobody goes to bars to get laid anymore. They use phone apps. That thins the bar crowd down to confirmed drunks, and there aren't enough of them to support all the bars.

Stroke's picture

The rent is too damn high

Silver Savior's picture

It truly is. I want housing to collapse in value and never come back. 

whatswhat1@yahoo.com's picture

Didn't see a single fat human in London last week except for a few tourists.  Whole food fruit and veggies were 10x tastier than the factory food in the US.  The only food available from the US were from this years bumper crop of radio active bing cherries from Washington state. 

Consuelo's picture



California (major metropolitan areas):

- Low carb, fitness-you-name-it, no-smoking, enviro-loving, butt-fucking capital of the world.

  And throw your ass under the bus at the first sign of bad times coming.


Texas (not all areas, but even if they were...):

Morbidly-obese, hallelujah-chorus, gun-toting, independent-minded capital of the world.

 And ready to lend a hand in the worst of times.


Pick one...   

SmilinJoeFizzion's picture

 The world needs ditch diggers, too


J Smails