The Best Predictor of Future Inflation is Flashing

Phoenix Capital Research's picture

The Fed is dramatically understating real inflation.

As you know, I’ve been very critical of the Fed’s inflation measures for years. The official inflation measure (Consumer Price Index or CPI) does a horrible job of measuring the actual cost of living for Americans.

I have long stated that this is intentional as the purpose of CPI is to hide the true rate of inflation so the Fed can paper over the decline in living standards that has plagued the US for the last few decades.

The Fed isn’t doing this out of ignorance, either. Back in 2002, Fed researchers actually reviewed  the usefulness of its CPI metric for forecasting inflation.

The results were not pretty. In fact, the Fed discovered that its official measures of inflation (CPI and PCE) do a horrible job of predicting future inflation.

So what does predict future inflation accurately?

FOOD prices.

We see that past inflation in food prices has been a better forecaster of future inflation than has the popular core measure…Comparing the past year’s inflation in food prices to the prices of other components that comprise the PCEPI (as in Table 1), we find that the food component still ranks the best among them all

https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional/02/01/Inflation.pd...

I want you to focus on these two admissions:

1)   The Fed has admitted that its official inflation measures do not accurately predict future inflation.

2)   The Fed admitted that FOOD prices are a much better predictor of future inflation. In fact food prices were a better predictor of inflation than the Fed’s PCE, non-durables goods, transportation services, housing, clothing, energy and more.

Put simply, if you want to predict inflation well… you NEED to look at food prices.

With that in mind, food inflation is on the rise. As a whole, Food and Beverage inflation has broken out of a descending wedge pattern (blue lines) in the context of a massive wedge triangle pattern (purples lines). We’re heading for a test of the upper purple line shortly.

Overall inflation will be following by a few months, but it’s coming. 

Put simply, inflation is rising. And at it is going to be getting worse in the weeks and months ahead. Why do you think the $USD has dumped 10% this year already?

This is THE BIG MONEY trend today. And smart investors will use it to generate literal fortunes.

We just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

 

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libertyanyday's picture

Inflation is riunning 8-10 percent.  The fed MUST hide this, it is how debt is extinguished and if the sheeple found out how bad they were being skrewed........they might want some 'splainin '.

JailBanksters's picture

There's only so long you can pretend the Toilet is not flushing properly, eventually you have

to call somebody to clean that crap out. The FED hasn't been flushed for 9 years, so it must pretty backed up.

 

Dragon HAwk's picture

100 copies, come on can't we just change  that to say " a Limited Printing " or something.

RedBaron616's picture

One can also argue with ALDI and Lidl are rapidly expanding and so other grocery chains will be likely unable to pass along full price hikes in order to hold onto their market share. In my town we have, in no particular order: Kroger, Food Lion, ALDI, Lidl, Wegmans, Whole Foods, and now Publix. Lots of competition. Many of these stores have almost continuous coupons for $5 off a purchase of $25 or $30. Great time to be grocery shopping. ALDI has quickly become my favorite, although I go to Wegmans for some things I can't get there. Watch the grocers cry!

Maestro Maestro's picture

Look, morons,

For the umpteenth time,

There cannot be either deflation nor inflation in the ABSENCE of money, for both deflation and inflation are MONETARY events.

Dollars, euros, yens, yuans, shekels, rials, or roubles are not money.

Present-day US dollars are a CRIME according to Article 1, Section 10 of the Constitution of the United States of America. The country that issues the reserve currency of the world! How can we take anyone seriously, including idiots known as the Chinese and the Russians, when this is the case?

Euros, yens, yuans, shekels, rials, or roubles are only accessoires to the aforementioned crime, as they are only different names for the same shit: the unlawful Federal Reserve Notes [which they are not either as they don't promise to redeem ANYTHING] also known as dollars.

You are so stupid.

Go staple gun your brain. None of you need it or use it.

Justin Case's picture

What is 'Money'

Money is an officially-issued legal tender generally consisting of notes and coin, and is the circulating medium of exchange as defined by a government. Money is often synonymous with cash and includes various negotiable instruments such as checks. Each country has its own money that is used as a medium of exchange within that country.
BREAKING DOWN 'Money'
Also referred to as currency, money is a liquid asset used in the settlement of debts that functions based on the general acceptance of its associated value within an economy. The value of money is not necessarily derived from the materials used to produce the note or coin and, instead, derives based on the amount shown on its face partnered with the public’s willingness to support the value as displayed.

RedBaron616's picture

Money is what you use to buy something. Therefore, dollars, euros, etc. CAN be money. And here's betting you use dollars as money too.

Here's the official definition: A medium that can be exchanged for goods and services and is used as a measure of their values on the market, including among its forms a commodity such as gold, an officially issued coin or note, or a deposit in a checking account or other readily liquefiable account.

So who is the moron? Take a good hard look in the mirror, before you throw rock's at everyone. You certainly haven't arrived as the guru on the mountain yet.

Maestro Maestro's picture

You are the king of morons.

The definition you gave is a lie.

Money is a medium of exchange, but must also be A STORE OF VALUE in order to be a medium of exchange and thus a unit of account.

CIA-indoctrinated insidious pieces of shit like yourself have been trying for a lifetime to make people forget and dismiss this fact.

Money is not anything your masters the bankers want us to sell out our collective asses for.

Especially NOT a CRIME and a TREASON like the dollar.

But here you are, claiming that fraud and crime are legal tender for real and valuable goods and services.

That's why you are the king of morons.

gmrpeabody's picture

Judging by the number of people junking you.., I think you must be the maroon...

LawsofPhysics's picture

Bullshit "analysis".  You cannot really calculate food "inflation" with 45 million people getting free food via SNAP in the U.S. alone.

"Full Faith and Credit"

Dick Gazinia's picture

I have noticed that the cost of a good quality, white call girl has gone down over the last 5 years.

Getting your wheels greased on a budget.

JoeTurner's picture

It not only depends on the basket that measures CPI but also the tool used to measure prices

http://pricedingold.com/crude-oil/

http://pricedingold.com/food/

http://pricedingold.com/us-wages/

Umh's picture

I'll take no shit for a trillion. Financial repression is the game plan to milk the people.

Iconoclast421's picture

Notice how every bag of cheese is magically 7 oz instead of 8? It is the stupidest most insulting crap that they pull... 7oz for the same price as 8. And they really think people arent going to notice this crap?

RedBaron616's picture

If yu continue to buy it, they won. Stop buying it. It has cellulouse in it anyway to keep the cheese from clumping together. I buy an 8 oz block of cheese and shred it myself. No cellulose and a full 8 oz. of cheese.

True Blue's picture

B..but... sawdust is good for you, and it is just a 'hedonic adjustment' right? If cheese gets too expensive, people will eat sawdust, so there is no inflation -according to the FED.

jago's picture

from the 70s bag of tricks.

ebworthen's picture

Getting hard to find 1 lb bacon, more and more 12 oz. packages

libertyanyday's picture

yogurt was 8 oz for 38 cents now 6 oz 48 cents,

all packaging has shrunk  24pk of coke now is  20 pack ...on and on.

new game's picture

do da maff. fees for state services are up 20-50 percent in mn-a-sno-flake land.

inflation running 5-10 percent depending on income levels. 3rd job scratching oligarch backs?

ball sucking counts too....

The Divided Stoopids of DuhMerica's picture

Naw... You just need to be buddies with the farmer that raises the pigs!

 

DeadFred's picture

It's seven ounces now? I didn't notice.

farragut's picture

I've been shopping at the same location in our small town for over 30 years (well-known national brand) and I've noticed several changes, which are all well-documented around the web showing packaged portions in items such as coffee, peanut butter, rolled paper products, etc, have shrunk while price remains stable. In addition to the cheese example above (and my word here: 'fancier' cheeses--eg, parmesan--have gone to 6 oz bags from 8 oz), my particular irritant is mini-candy bars. I have many flaws and one of them is an addiction to candy. Back in the 90s, these multi-paks of 'fun' size candy bars used to contain 10 bars and routinely went on sale for $1 per pak. Then they went to 8 bars in the 00s. They reduced further, down to 6 bars a few years ago. The periodic sale price is still $1, however. It has, however, been a great way to illustrate the concepts of 'inflation' and 'marketing' to my 14- and 12-yr old sons.

dizzyfingers's picture

Stop buying over-priced, low-to-no-nutrition packaged items and instead eat a small amount of meat or poultry (with fat) and leafy greens topped with real sour cream. Read about intermittent fasting. Both of these suggestions are healthy and life sustaining. Don't consume anything that contains sugar.

Arnold's picture

Fuck that.
ACA gobbles us into oblivion.

gmrpeabody's picture

Under estimating inflation.., really, you think?

<sarc>