One Trader Warns "The Game Is Starting To Change Before Your Eyes"

Tyler Durden's picture

In a market that can barely fog a mirror with its heartbeat, a sudden lurch lower - as we experienced overnight across all global risky asset classes - especially on the 30th anniversary of Black Monday, has sparked a cavalacade of "this is it" narratives as well as "this time is different" memes. However, as former fund manager Richard Breslow notes, no matter how much traders may want to ignore reality, the game is starting to change before our eyes...

As BlackRock CIO Rick Reider noted earlier, major central banks flooded the global financial system with nearly $10 trillion in liquidity since 2008, but now we’re beginning to unwind...

Via Bloomberg,

If Catalonia didn’t exist, we would have to invent it. If only for a day...

Stocks are down today and someone has to be assigned the blame.

It’s a shame that we always need to find the whipping boy du jour in order to avoid confronting the possibility of the impossible - that asset bubbles may be made of tough stuff but they’re called bubbles for a reason.

Are the problems in Spain for real? Certainly. As is their unemployment rate, but nobody has given a damn. But failure to place blame on something that everyone assumes will be a one-hit blunder risks a level of investor introspection that must be avoided, especially as we inch closer to the holiday season. Which is a more genteel way of saying toward high water-mark calculations.

What’s causing this particular setback, if indeed it can be called that? Two things:

  • commentators complaining that it was getting boring reading on their teleprompters that stocks made new all-time highs; and
  •  the dawning realization that the central bank cast of characters who have kept these asset balls in the air really is going to change.

They say that markets don’t like uncertainty. Well, who will be running global monetary policy and how well it will be coordinated is the biggest potential uncertainty out there.On the same day President Trump is meeting with Fed Chair Janet Yellen for her “interview” for her job, PBOC Governor Zhou reminded reporters covering the China Party Congress that “people retire eventually.”

I doubt that was just a general commentary on life.The fact that the Hang Seng got its knuckles rapped has been put down to his warning about Minsky Moments and gotten all the play, but I think the former comments are what mattered. He’s been around for a long time and tolerated a lot of excesses that have contributed to the country’s economic success.

On top of that there’s speculation that the new coalition government in New Zealand may have different views on the prerogatives enjoyed by the head of the RBNZ and the currency got clocked. That’s the knee-jerk from foreign exchange traders on the outside looking in.

And irrespective of the fact that their local stock market took it all in stride and closed at all-time highs. Traders don’t like uncertainty because they so often trade things they know little about. Just wait for ECB speculation to heat up.

The game is changing and it has little to do with policy normalization. And everything to do with the irrational fear of change in a world that everyone professes to hate.

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HRClinton's picture

"Unwind". What's that? Code word for

"Head for shelter, as we stiff the Sheeple and Muppets!"?

shizzledizzle's picture

Oh goodie, I was wondering what "One trader" has been up to. Him and his retired green beret buddy been downing brews @ happy hour.

LawsofPhysics's picture

LOL!!!  Nothing has "changed"...

BTFD dumbass.

"Full Faith and Credit"

FreeShitter's picture

One Trader has been saything this for 8 years.....never 

 

right

 

once....

HRClinton's picture

Ah, but when it does happen, such (((traders))) will be able to say: "We've been warning you, and ringing the Alarm Bell for months or years!"

Always an "Exit Strategy" for these (((vermin))), after they've pilfered everything. 

xantippa's picture

if he is right at this point all th suckers will have lost all their money. this is beginning to be a big farce.

 

i am with the traders on here who follow shepwave.  so far so good but i have been following gold and stocks from them for about 9 months or so.  still much better that one trader.

Quivering Lip's picture

And another warning from another trader. 

I trade, and here's my warning. When the Centrally induced bubble bursts the Centralized Counterfeiters will do it all over again, Confiscating and Consolidating even more.

medium giraffe's picture

What, you mean like last time? And the time before that?  

Quivering Lip's picture

Indeed!! What was it that the former Chief of Stiff and current mayor of Chicago said? Something about a crisis and waste. Of course he just lifted that from Churchill and is straight out of the Centralized Counterfeiters playbook.

medium giraffe's picture

Well, without a little fright now and then people wont sell their shit to you at bargain prices and beg for more restrictions on their freedoms.

allamerican's picture

see if one hour, spy 254.8 holds up..

if not, might get little dicey.....

koan's picture

Lava bubbles cool and harden into relatively permanent structures.

jtmo3's picture

One word....BULLSHIT

Dragon HAwk's picture

Be nice if we had a money that could not be invested, only spent, only moved back and forth between people. funny how that would ballance things out Huh.

Codwell's picture

It's not just liquidity. We have a paradigm shift in event horizons, partially allied with the liquidity.

These markets are moving away from human time scales. A human's event or events horizon occur over a human life span. Computer algorithms and neural networks are not bound by these event horizons. Just as corporations eclipse human lifespans and changed the game, so are the algos and neural networks.

Think of them as a house poker dealer who gets a cut of every pot. Eventually the house winds up with all the money because eventually the algos and neural networks will still be here cutting the pot while you're long gone.

If it hasn't been done already, there will be perpetual trusts set up ran by algos and a neural network squeezing every penny of profit from markets 24/7 and operating on a 1000 year  o r more basis insteadof a human lifespan.

It's a game changer, and creating a game that humans simply can not compete in nor even comprehend the implications.

 

Nomad Trader's picture

You arrogant btfd bulls are going to get slaughtered when the next panic begins. 

Herodotus's picture

I would like to see the market open down the limit for 10 days in a row.

Nomad Trader's picture

The -20% magnet, errr circuit breaker, will suck anything lower than -16% straight into it.

Jason T's picture

BTATHYFI  ...all over again.

syzygysus's picture

Gosh, I miss the good old days when all the news on ZH was about Deutsche Bank and Monte Dei Paschi going to collapse the derivatives bubble.

 

 

Tim Knight from Slope of Hope's picture

Its' a bird!

 

It's a plane!

 

It's..........ONE TRADER!!!!!

buzzsaw99's picture

after one trader won the lottery he was asked by the press what he planned to do with the money.  he replied:  "i'm going to keep trading until it's all gone bitchez!"

therover's picture

Its not 1 trader...its the OH N EE  (as in ONLY) trader.

Stolen from the 3 Stooges episode when Curly read the ONE WAY sign as the O N E Way.

venturen's picture

ECB $100 Billion a month of printing isn't Chump change....it is a circle jerk of printing! 

roadhazard's picture

Sounds like an echo from 2014.

Rebelrebel7's picture

"Traders don’t like uncertainty because they so often trade things they know little about."


ONLY A GENIUS WOULD MAKE THAT STATEMENT TYLER!
turkey george palmer's picture

Socialists need the power and are so incompetent they got Trump elected. After the coming fucking debacle there should appear a kind of fuck all party that just hates everything and everyone not in the party. Goal to pay back all the misery caused by the wealthy. It will be popular and fashionable and totally destructive. I imagine taxation will be near 100% lol.good stuff

Thoth777's picture

Nay sayer's and Phrophets of Gloom about the future of Socialism really get my goat (And probably the family pets as well if things really go south). 

gdpetti's picture

Methinks this author left about 25 trillion off of that 'major central bank' liquidity push.... but then what's 20 - 30 trillion these days?