Geopolitical Tsunami: Pax Americana, Petrodollar, & The Coming Crisis In The Gulf

Tyler Durden's picture

It’s easy to get lost in all things Middle East, especially concerning the chaotic events that unfolded over the weekend in Lebanon and Saudi Arabia.

Three days after the most stunning purge in recent Saudi history - which was really a countercoup, that led to the arrest of dozen of Saudi Arabian royals, ministers and businessmen to further the control of the Kingdom - Saudi Arabia called Yemen’s missile launch on Riyadh an ‘act of war’ by Iran, and also played victim by saying Lebanon has declared war against the Kingdom.

How to make sense of this all? 

An author on twitter by the handle Black Pigeon Speaks beautifully outlines today’s events in an easy to understand video titled: PAX AMERICANA, PetroDollar & the Coming CRISIS in the GULF… 

The author of the video focuses on the Middle East and says a perfect storm is gathering upon the horizon, as the whole world is changing and the only way to change it for the better is to understand the world around you.

The video opens up with a brief understanding of the stunning purge in Saudi Arabia and how it has cleared any potential obstacles for King Salman’s son ascension to the throne.

This was done by a widespread arrest of royals, ministers and businessmen who have large sums of money and control key parts of the economy and parts of the military. Such an unorthodox move is bound to force internal conflict with-in the country that could very well spillover.

In the next section, the author says “this comes all at a time of seeming change for the Kingdom”. Allowing women to drive was merely a window dressing event and the real issue is the country’s economic transition away from oil. The problem resides around the world’s most generous social welfare systems of which most citizens do not work. The money transfer from state to citizens is similar to the United States social programs, but the objective in Saudi Arabia has been to sedate the populace from expressing any collective opposition to the kingdom. It is easy to understand how fragile the house of Saud really is….

Moreover as what was highlighted by the recent arm sales via the Trump administration. The country is armed with the most technological weapons in the world, as it has completely abandoned the line of succession through a stunning weekend purge.

The idea that Saudi Arabia is trying to cement a new era for the kingdom at the expense of those who have been purged could pose serious problems. And how the author puts it, “you have a recipe for civil war– for two reasons:

  • Those who have been purged will claim they’ve a legitimate claim to power. These individuals are very wealthy and have the means to buy mercenary armies to fight for their claim
  • Breakdown of the social welfare program

The outlook for Saudi Arabia is bleak and in our view, the conditions are perfect for a civil war. The probability of an expansionist war also increases as the kingdom has Iran and Lebanon in its crosshairs.

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AgAuSkeptic's picture

MBS is very popular in Saudi Arabia, only ones who are angry with him are Hillary's shill army of princes and liberals who are enraged that MBS will reform the 7th century religion once and for all.

Ink Pusher's picture

I've been waiting for this crux since enduring the unending shitstorms of the late 70's...

kind of a bonus really, because I didn't think it would happen in my lifetime and now I have a ringside seat to the greatest show on earth.

WillyGroper's picture

he used a really bad pic of pootie's double.

shale revolution/oil independence?

hahahahaha

RationalLuddite's picture

Yup ... Black Pigeon can have some interesting great stuff, but like many YouTubers their knowledge of superficial ability to analyse history , science, the macroeconomics fraud and military matters leads them to naive conclusions. He does do great stuff, but the sucess and rapid output leads to rubbish conclusions too often. I stopped watching this one 30 seconds in initially because in the first moments alone a priori he'd shown his lack of understanding.  Same with his views that all will be rosy with the Japanese economy bcs much of the the debt can be just "written off". Just so. He will get better with time i think bcs he is intellectually honest and perceptive though.

WillyGroper's picture

he does some good research, agreed.

while his naivete was clearly displayed, what i don't see is an agenda...yet. 

as soon as i see the likes of it is when i quit listening, e.g. michael snyder/alex jones. 

they do nothing but promote division with their pro christian, anti muzzie rants.  the quickest way to sell a whopper is to sandwich it between 2 truths...his/her truth, bull.  THE TRUTH.  nothing more toxic than a belief system...shuts out all other info.

 

what is abundantly clear to me is our "reality" is manufactured & always has been, for generations.  tptb's MO is obvious with the destruction of history (statues) to googestapo digital book burning, not to mention search.

 

 

 

Zen Xenu's picture

Yeah, the bit about the U.S. shale revolution and energy independence is a crock of crap.

But I agree with this Black Pigeon dude more than I disagree with him. Looking forward to his next video.

reverendspooner's picture

"The probability of an expansionist war also increases as the kingdom has Iran and Lebanon in its crosshairs".

True, but the reality is that Saudi power is very limited. MbS's only hope is to focus on Iran to keep KSA united, because at the first sign of real trouble, their mercenary army is going to turn tail. It will then be upto Israel and US to do the heavy lifting.

Intersting times ahead.

idahobandito's picture

agree...but I would not count on Trump doing much more than selling weapons to SA.

redmudhooch's picture

Whatever happen, hopefully one of them will take out Israel in the process.

and no more American money or blood to "the chosen" parasites, lets see if the myth is true.

willspeaks's picture

Keep dreaming.

Israel is the only country over there with any brains. They have figured out how to make the de-sal process cheap. 

 

redmudhooch's picture

Will Chevy Volt owners have the last laugh?

joego1's picture

Like Phonestar who is laughing all the way to the bit bank right now.

Socratic Dog's picture

That SOB was touting it here at well under $100.  I was thinking about putting a few bucks into it but he was such a prick I changed my mind.  Ah well, at least I can touch and feel the shiny stuff I got instead.

Drop-Hammer's picture

Let us hope that they all go to war, destroy their economies, and Israel has to pick up the pieces.  We would then have no excuse to be in the ME.  However, the reality is that the jew interests here in the U.S. and Israel are so wealthy and powerful, with all of our politicians in their pockets, that we will never be free of that loony bin.  

truthalwayswinsout's picture

Gee at least address the main issue.

The United States is now in major competition with Russia and Saudi oil interests. The U.S. no longer needs oil from the Middle East and can supply its own. Along with Canada, it is now clear that the shift that actually occurred is in the shift away from the Middle East as a center of gravity.

The real trend that is not recognized by this article is the fact that Saudi is going bankrupt and most of any of the oil left may stay in the ground or be sold for $10 a barrel as the U.S. Canada axis becomes the major exporter of oil on the world. The same goes for Natural Gas.

The new player in town is the U.S. Once the massive flow of Natural Gas is added to the equation, the U.S. balance of payment deficits in trade will be reversed.

If the U.S. actually stops the unfair trade deals it has with Japan and China, those two will be in deep shit along with Saudi and Russian interests.

The U.S. Canada Axis is the #1 best trading partner for a reliable source of oil and natural gas.

As this balance of power changes and deteriorates in the Middle East there will be permanent war between the Sunnis and Shia.

Where the U.S. is making its biggest mistake is in not taking NASA public. If it takes NASA public it will create millions of new jobs, hundreds of new companies and increase GDP by  50-100 percent over the next 10 -15 years along with paying off its National Debt. And as a massive side benefit it will save the environment. The first nation to commercialize space will own and control the rest of the World.

THAT IS WHAT IS REALLY GOING ON NOT THE DRIBBLE IN THIS ARTICLE.

SixIsNinE's picture

geez - what are you inhaling?   kind kush with some nitrous?  watching some funny trips to the moon bases?

 

 

 

Koba the Dread's picture

No. He's off his meds again.

DEMIZEN's picture

its time to pull out of ME. now imagine all that old global money stacked against you. nasa go public like ipo offering?

just the tip's picture

dat eagle.  he gots arroooos in both his paws.  do dat mean somtin?

Nassim's picture

You can not launch wars of expansion while you have an ongoing civil war back home. Obvious, I would have thought.

"The country is armed with the most technological weapons in the world"

So what? A bunch of mountain arabs have knocked them out in Yemen.

DEMIZEN's picture

peak water table, desal costs, shale revolution, eurodoom, foreign labor...  really?

how about: libya, muslim brotherhood, somalia, sudan, turkey coup, syrian war, isis, israel, iran color revolution?  trillions down the drain and all proxy wars lost.

hippie yammer.

Fireman's picture

"The shale revolution" indeed. And as for USSAN sanctions against Russia destroying Europe obviously the pigeon is not very well informed of the real situation with German business connections to Russia. Still fear porn is fun!

 

https://sputniknews.com/business/201705051053308338-russia-germany-china...

http://www.iiea.com/blogosphere/understanding-german-russian-trade-relat...

https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/balance-of-trade

Joiningupthedots's picture

The only hairs Saudi possess is pubic hair.

They fight Iran how? Across the Gulf or through Southern (Shia) Iraq ?

They fight Lebanon how? Going through Syria?

Saudi is currently getting its ass handed to iit on a plate by sandal wearing AK47 toting Houti's.

The best military equipment in the world?

That would be why they are begging to buy the S-400's at any price Russia cares to name

LMAO

Joiningupthedots's picture

The only hairs Saudi possess is pubic hair.

They fight Iran how? Across the Gulf or through Southern (Shia) Iraq ?

They fight Lebanon how? Going through Syria?

Saudi is currently getting its ass handed to iit on a plate by sandal wearing AK47 toting Houti's.

The best military equipment in the world?

That would be why they are begging to buy the S-400's at any price Russia cares to name

LMAO

el buitre's picture

I agree with your comment but with the addition that the attempted S-400 purchases are to parry an aerial attack from the USA on their oil production facilities.  Hell hath no fury like an Empire scorned.

Mustahattu's picture

The Saudis are desperate. No wonder the young prince's secret visit to the devil's hq in Israhell. He needed a major war yesterday but there's been no takers. Too late to beg the joos for help unless somehow that is successfully lobbied in DC! Now he's on his knees begging the Chinese and Russians so that Iran will not squash them.