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America's Demographic Cliff: The Real Issue In The Coming, And All Future Presidential Elections

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In four months the debate over America's Fiscal cliff will come to a crescendo, and if Goldman is correct (and in this case it likely is), it will probably be resolved in some sort of compromise, but not before the market swoons in a replica of the August 2011 pre- and post-debt ceiling fiasco: after all politicians only act when they (and their more influential, read richer, voters and lobbyists) see one or two 0's in their 401(k)s get chopped off. But while the Fiscal cliff is unlikely to be a key point of contention far past December, another cliff is only starting to be appreciated, let alone priced in: America's Demographic cliff, which in a decade or two will put Japan's ongoing demographic crunch to shame, and with barely 2 US workers for every retired person in 2035, we can see why both presidential candidates are doing their darnedest to skirt around the key issue that is at stake not only now, be every day hence.

Sadly, the market which due to central-planner meddling, has long lost its discounting capabilities, and is now merely a reactive mechanism, will ignore this biggest threat to the US financial system until it is far too late. After all it is the unsustainability of America's $100+ trillion in underfunded welfare liabilities that is the biggest danger to preserving the American way of life, and will be the sticking point in the presidential election in 80 days. However, don't expect either candidate to have a resolution to the demographic catastrophe into which America is headed for one simple reason. There is none. 

The problem in a nutshell: the first wave of Baby Boomers, born between the years of 1946 and 1964, officially reached retirement age in 2011. There are a whole lot of Baby Boomers - just under 76 million, to be exact - that will depend on new money flowing into the system to help keep the entitlements coming. According to the latest Social Security and Medicare Board of Trustees 2012 Annual Reports Social Security now pays out more than it takes in, and is expected to do so for the next 75 years. 

And while the market, and its "discounting" may now be largely irrelevant, those who care to be educated about the facts behind America's Demographic Cliff, here is ConvergEx and "Talkin' 'bout your generation"

According to the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey, about 40.2 million people – 13% of the entire US population – are 65 years or older and eligible to receive government entitlements such as Medicare and Social Security. At current levels, spending on these entitlements make up about 8.7% of GDP – about $1.3 trillion. While this may sound sustainable over the short term, in coming years the amount of entitlement outlays necessary to keep up with retiring Baby Boomers is going to send spending through the roof. By 2030, for example, a full 19.3% of the population will be claiming SSI and Medicare benefits, based on the Census Bureau’s population projections (the CB uses an adjustment factor for the age cohorts based on mortality rates, foreign-born immigration, and life expectancy). For simplicity’s sake, here’s a decade-by-decade look at where the aging population – and expenditures – will be in the years to come, courtesy of the Census Bureau and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO):

  • In 1900, 4.1% of the US population was 65+. By 1950, this number had almost doubled to 8.1%. As the chart following the text shows, the Baby Boomers (now ages 48-66) represent the most significant population wave in US history. According to the CBO, the population aged 65 and over will increase by 87% over the next 25 years as Baby Boomers enter retirement, compared to an increase of only 12% in those aged 20-64.
  • This year, 13% of the US population is 65+ and entitlement spending accounts for 8.7% of GDP. And that number only includes SSI and Medicare, not Medicaid and future Obamacare subsidies which add to these outlays.
  • In 10 years (2022): 16.1% of the population will be 65+, entitlement spending estimated at 9.6% ($1.5 trillion, based on 2011 US GDP)
  • 2037 (25 years on): 20 % of the US population will be 65+, entitlement spending estimated at 12.2% of GDP ($2.0 trillion)
  • Not surprisingly, there will be far more women than men in the 65+ population. Women currently live about five years longer than their male peers, on average. Accordingly, the Census Bureau estimates that in 2030, there will be about 8 million more women than men that are 65 and older by 2030: 27.8 million versus 35.7 million.

It’s a pretty tough picture, to say the least; as the population ages, we’re looking at more and more money dedicated to retirement benefits with a smaller workforce to fund the spending. We’re not the only ones, either: Japan is in worse shape than the US, with 23.1% of the population already over 65. In 2050, government statistics forecast that number to be 39.6%. Europe’s in the same boat: 17.4% of the population in EU countries was 65+ in 2010, and it’s expected to be about 30% by 2060. The developed world, essentially, is facing a demographic “Fiscal cliff” with no clear-cut strategies for how to fund the liabilities inherent in an entirely predictably aging population

Are there any social positives that might mitigate this plethora of indisputable financial concerns?  The math is the math, as quants are fond of saying, so I don’t expect that there are overwhelming offsets to the problem of an aging population.  But there are some notable “Positives” which don’t get the attention they deserve because they offer such a lightweight counterbalance to the challenges I outlined above.  Still, here are a few thoughts:

  1. Stronger voter turnout/greater engagement in the political process. The 65+ age group has beaten out every other age cohort in voter turnout in every Presidential and Congressional election since 1980. In the latest presidential election, 68.1% of those aged 65+ went to the polls, versus and average of 51.2% for the rest of the voting-age population. The reason for this differential is straightforward: it easier for retired persons to vote given fewer time restrictions, allowing the higher turnout rate. But given an average turnout of 58.2% overall in 2008 for Obama’s election, compared to an average of 70-80% in other developed countries (Japan, Germany, Canada, Spain), the growing 65+ population will certainly help the U.S. come closer to its developed country peers on this metric.

    The stronger turnout of these voters, and their sheer numbers, are also likely to have an important impact on US political races in the years to come. They’re going to be the biggest voting bloc in American history, if patterns hold: 68% of them is almost 52 million, larger than the entire Black/African American voter population, for example. And like other older generations, according to a study by the Pew Research Center done in late 2011, Boomers have become slightly more conservative as they’ve aged, and slightly more of them (45% vs. 51%) intend to vote for Governor Romney in the upcoming election. However, given that one of their main concerns is the maintenance of entitlement spending, it seems unlikely that Boomers will continue to support a party that recommends reducing the deficit by cutting entitlements. All candidates, then, and especially the GOP, will need to take a hard look at the wants and needs of the Boomers. The 2012 Presidential election – and many others afterwards - will quite literally depend on their votes. 

  2. Lower crime rates. The younger population is by far the more crime-prone age cohort, according to the Department of Justice and the FBI Uniform Crime report. The DOJ publishes an annual report on arrests by age, the first occurring in 1980 and the latest in 2009. Over these years, the number of total arrests has increased by 30.9% for the entire population; for the 65+ population, it’s gone up 0.3%. Moreover, the Baby Boomer generation (in 2009, ages 45-53) accounted for only about 7% of all crimes. What were their most “Popular” crimes? Drunkeness and DUI. Violent crimes are almost exclusively the MO of the 18-29 cohort, who account for almost half (44%) of all arrests. It’s not too far of a stretch, then, to think that as our population ages, we can expect less and less violent crime across the country – though you may want to be careful on the roads.
  3. Lower resource consumption. The older population tends to cut down on resource consumption after retirement, particularly in the case of gasoline. Once they no longer need to commute to work and move into smaller, more affordable houses, the amount of fuel needed for transportation and heating/cooling should drop, perhaps significantly.

    Take motor gasoline usage as a benchmark. Just under 60 million Baby Boomers consider themselves a part of the labor force, according to BLS data. 85% of all Americans drive to work, according to a late 2010 Gallup poll, with an average commute of 30 miles round-trip – about 45 minutes – and an average of 20mpg (courtesy of the Bureau of Transportation Statistics). Using these estimates, we can calculate that the average Baby Boomer commuter uses about 33 gallons of gas each month; assuming that 85% of them drive every day, that’s about 1.7 billion gallons of gas being used per month.  As they retire, there are actually fewer new entrants into the workforce to replace them, meaning fewer drivers and less fuel consumption.

  4. Growing domestic service economy. An older population becomes more and more dependent on services as they age, particularly in the realms of healthcare and transportation. More and more people will be needed to fill the void in these service areas as the Boomers retire. Luckily for the US workforce, these are jobs that can’t be outsourced: healthcare especially depends on on-site care and personal service.

    In fact, as the population has begun to age, the US has already seen some steady growth in service-related positions. The BLS’s Occupational Employment data logs the number of occupations across the US in major industry sectors as well as almost 800 detailed occupations. According to the survey, the US has seen a -3.3% drop in job growth overall. Healthcare and “Personal Care”, however, have grown 13% and 11% each since that year. Occupations such as physician’s assistants, pharmacy technicians, and home health aides are in high demand, and will most likely continue to be so as the population ages and begins to rely more heavily on these services.

  5. Declining unemployment and increased labor force participation for this segment of the workforce. One of the most unique aspects of today’s aging population is their continued presence in the workforce. According to the BLS, 23.4% of Americans age 65+ were in the labor force as of June 2012, making up a full 4.5% of the total civilian labor force. They also had a below-average unemployment rate of 6.9%. If this trend continues, we’re likely to see more productivity from the upper end of the age spectrum in years to come as Boomers delay retirement in favor of working.

    On the flip side, as more of the aging population retires and leaves the workforce, more job opportunities will open up for those who are currently unemployed. The youngest members of the workforce, ages 18-24, will be the biggest beneficiaries of this shift, as they typically seek the same kind of jobs that the older population currently occupies. When these positions are vacated by the older group, then, and refilled by the younger groups, we may see a decline in youth unemployment rates.

    The older workforce also opens an interesting opportunity for some employers. The younger half of the Baby Boomer generation is tech-savvy, experienced, and definitely needs the money. This set of skills won’t go unnoticed in the labor market.

Unfortunately, these societal “benefits” are only a thin silver lining on a very, very dark cloud. Social Security and Medicare spending are projected to grow exponentially as healthcare costs explode and the biggest population wave in the history of the US starts to enter retirement. The Congressional Budget Office expects spending to increase by 150% over the next 25 years, which is hardly sustainable with barely 2 workers for every retired person in 2035... there’s a storm a comin’

Sources here:

http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/06-05-Long-Term_Budget_Outlook.pdf
http://www.census.gov/prod/2010pubs/p25-1138.pdf
http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/cats/elections/voting-age_population_and_voter_participation.html
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_wpsup_k_w.htm
http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_304.htm
http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_04_23.html
http://www.openleft.com/diary/13242/the-future-of-the-electorate-age-and-party-id
http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-pdf/11-3-11%20Generations%20Release.pdf
http://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=datool&surl=/arrests/index.cfm#

 

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Sat, 08/18/2012 - 15:59 | 2716979 Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

All time highs? Hell, Kimberly-Clark is CLEANING UP.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 15:50 | 2716958 PiratePawpaw
PiratePawpaw's picture

Or we could propose a really crappy healthcare system which would help them to die off faster......Wait we did that already.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 16:20 | 2717004 macholatte
macholatte's picture

 

I saw a chart somewhere that showed not only the increase in population from boomers but also the decrease after the boomers die-off, something that is rarely discussed. Obamacare care seeks to accelerate the die-off and therefore retards the cash outlays. Nevertheless, if the current global economic ponzi continues for another 2 years then it will likely continue for another 20 -30 -50 years.

 

Go as far as you can see; when you get there, you'll be able to see farther.
J. P. Morgan

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 18:49 | 2717182 Seer
Seer's picture

I'll sidestep the obvious political pokes and point it at what is REALLY the issue: The food system!  The "health care" industry is for propping up the food system: control the food and you control the people...

Sun, 08/19/2012 - 13:07 | 2718220 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

It's the greatest symbiotic relationship ever -- Big Ag and Big Pharma.  Win-win, unless you happen to be one of the livestock.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 21:57 | 2717390 jumbo maverick
jumbo maverick's picture

Grand slam home run

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 23:01 | 2717502 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

Yeah, you have to worry about a system where it is in the government's fiscal interest to have you die when you turn 65. They will have no payouts to you and if you are successful they will take another half of what you protected from the IRS your whole life in the death tax. Collectivism has so many wonderful facets.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 15:53 | 2716968 PiratePawpaw
PiratePawpaw's picture

During its decline, Rome relied heavily on foreign mercenaries to fill its ranks. While not as loyal as citizens, they were more effective than geriatric legions.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 19:15 | 2717209 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

Not to worry.  Republicans will resolve the underlying imbalance of the demographic cliff.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 22:45 | 2717470 XF
XF's picture

Well the dimcrat marxist sure as fuck aren't going to.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 22:31 | 2717444 XF
XF's picture

Typical selfish attitude.   Gimme, gimme, gimme and fuck the rest.    You old farts collect far more than you ever paid in.

Sun, 08/19/2012 - 08:02 | 2717821 Machination
Machination's picture

By that time SKYNET will be online, no need to worry on that front

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 15:38 | 2716939 TIMBEEER
TIMBEEER's picture

Umm.. but that is easily solved. See, we in the European Union lure hard working immigrants from Maghreb, Arabia, Persia and all around Africa. It's working pretty well (cough), yes, it is!

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 16:38 | 2717028 jwoop66
jwoop66's picture

You Europeans have always been smarter than us.  I can't wait till we're just like you.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 17:40 | 2717100 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

We just have our dick-tater decree that mexicans are americans after all so we have the same thing going on here. BTW have you folks eaten your golden goose yet, it's the next course over here...

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 15:45 | 2716948 Precious
Precious's picture

The NINCs --- no income, no car.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 16:31 | 2717021 710x
710x's picture

The NINCOMPOOPs --- no income, no car, owes mortgages, probably out of pot

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 18:03 | 2717125 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

I'm a'stealing this, no attribution, but a greenie towards ya! - Ned

Sun, 08/19/2012 - 17:37 | 2718891 Precious
Precious's picture

 (no attribution version) NINCOMPOOPNA

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 15:46 | 2716949 Irelevant
Irelevant's picture

Old presidents in the future thats for sure! The retirees will vote other retirees and keep the slaves working so pensions can be paid!

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 15:47 | 2716950 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

It always bothers me that no one ever mentions the ageing world population. This post touches on it, but never examines the horror to come.

Not only an ageing world population but also a severe decline in birth rates in industrial nations.

Those two factors do not bode well for the coming future.

Another overlooked aspect is the ageing prison population. Lots of money spent for care.

But as long as we keep being distracted by the money no one will bother to see the wave about to crash on them.

 

 

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 16:00 | 2716970 Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

THe monkeys have it right. The old will not only be allowed to die, there will also be plenty of government 'assistance.'

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 18:37 | 2717168 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Children of Men.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 18:47 | 2717179 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Gulley,

The worlds aging population, does not include ethnic minorities, and Islamic countries.

Last rumor/word I heard Hispanics will make Caucasoids in the USA  a minority by 2020.Cauc birthrates have barely been replacing the parents, if not less, while the minorities are doing a 4-8 ratio,for parents.

Check Muslims in Western Europe,like Fance, and the U.K.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 15:47 | 2716952 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

The "useless eaters" are being, and will continue to be in increasing numbers, culled through various mechanisms not the least of which is Medicare and food stamps.   Soon those "useless eaters" will have their retirement savings and other property like real estate, shares, bonds and CDs confiscated through various mechanisms (see what happened at MF Grobal for a preview), and they will be forced into abject poverty, starvation and death.

The real cliff is the one America's elderly will fall off of into their demise.   Their votes after they are dead will mostly be cast by the Chicago and New York Kosher Nostra.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 19:26 | 2717214 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

I see we have at least 4 ADL volunteers monitoring the board at this time.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 16:07 | 2716957 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

as long as we continue to accept ever-more-freaking-worthless paper as money while raising taxes on the utes of amerika and especially the poor (get the safety-net payments back faster with less movement thru the economy thru value-added and sales taxes) i don't see any problems that can't be fixed by seasonal and birth/death adjustments...

...and more lying

why should these actuaries not be able to do as the accountants do? 

if we need better numbers here, we need better numbers, so let's go!  japan may be out-tweaking us, already! 

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 15:51 | 2716962 booboo
booboo's picture

I have instructed my children to strap me on a raft surrounded by dry tinder and 5 gallon gas cans, they can shoot flaming arrows at me as I drift out to sea. Sitting is a shit filled diaper watching old re-runs of "Breaking Bad" and eating water soaked Kibbles and Bits just ain't gonna work out for me.

Though if they keep pushing our buttons I can see The Grey Panthers catching on. They say dying ain't no way to make a living but at that age making a living is less important than dying for something.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 15:55 | 2716973 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Don't forget to have them send you with a sword and Meade for the party in Vahalla.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 19:40 | 2717224 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

When you get that age and your health is failing fast, you don't have that much to lose.  Movies have been made about heroes (and on the other side insane terrorists) in the wars on suicide missions.  I wonder if there might be another Divine Wind.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 21:07 | 2717310 Manthong
Manthong's picture

As you get older you need to keep your mind sharp and do things like crossword puzzles..

and load calculations and ballistic tables.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 23:23 | 2717532 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

Would we do that for the traitorous children that threw us under the bus?

Sun, 08/19/2012 - 13:18 | 2718255 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Some might even do that just to get even.  The last scenes of the last episode of last season's Breaking Bad with the old drug smuggler in wheel chair was interesting.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 20:55 | 2717302 Ineverslice
Ineverslice's picture

Room for two?

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 15:53 | 2716967 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

So that means the other 44 million on NILF are of work age. So 12 million on unemployment, 6.1 million part time that want full time and ~44 million workable NILF......let's be conservative and call it 60 million for 3.8 million job openings (JOLTS.... assuming all are living wage (ha!)). Yea, I think we are already in our demographic crisis....just no one wants to say it.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 16:41 | 2717031 jwoop66
jwoop66's picture

NILF?  Nanna's I'd like to fuck?

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 18:12 | 2717140 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

Not In Labor Force

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 18:46 | 2717178 jwoop66
jwoop66's picture

oh... I thought I might have found a support group

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 19:21 | 2717210 homme
homme's picture

+1!

Have you considered a NNTP usenet group? alt.binaries.erotica.senior-citizens perhaps.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 15:57 | 2716977 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

I see nothing that includes SSDI, Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI). Various reports state that as much as 10m people have joined SSDI since Obama became president. SSDI is funded through the same mechanism as SS, through the SS taxes workers, employers and self employed pay. Thus this number should be included.

 

That 40.2m might be 50m and thus the percentage to the population might be over 16%.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 16:03 | 2716984 Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

SSDI doesn't go to seniors, it goes to working age people. Therefore it's not actually part of the demographic issue outlined above.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 17:49 | 2717111 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

As I said, SSDI is funded through the same mechanism as SS. Thus the money needed is effected. The article was all about the money needed to cover retirement benefits. Well if the SS fund is being drained further by SSDI, that should be included.

 

Let me put it another way for you. I'll use made up numbers to keep it simple for you. Let's say the government collects 100m in SS taxes each year. Then the government pays out 100m to seniors. No problem.

But SSDI also is from that same fund (SSI is different and is from the general fund). So that extra 10m of recipients of SSDI also take from that 100m that also funds SS seniors and that puts that account in the red.

 

As it stands right now, SS is already paying out more then it collects, so to not include SSDI is not good because it has even bigger impact on a fund that is already in the red.

 

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 18:48 | 2717181 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

Another coward

Sun, 08/19/2012 - 18:28 | 2718987 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

Two more cowards. Shall we go for 3 or more. Probably liberals that can't defend logic and facts.

Sun, 08/19/2012 - 13:24 | 2718278 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

You won't find many over 65 retiree types in the Social Security offices anymore.  Most of the people there are the ones that have learned that SSDI is the new lifetime welfare.  There's a whole legal industry that specializes in getting obese, drug and alcohol addicted, and other somewhat disabled people on SSDI.  This trend is very expensive and unfair to the people that depend on the trust fund for retirement income.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 15:59 | 2716980 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

actually this isn't nearly dramatic enough. You see unlike Japan and Europe "the USA moves." Since we are well on our way to another speculative "blow off" (cuz there's never a shortage of fortune making in the US economy) the question becomes...where. And of course front and center is the Upper mid-west. Bismark has a 2 percent unemployment rate with growth rates soon to surpass China...if they haven't already. Already there is a massive property boom underway in the State (if your town turns into an actual ghost town for a couple decades then it's not hard to have that boom btwhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fortuna,_North_Dakota don't who the 22 were who claimed to be living there actually )...hence as the Fed move away from the "wet blanket approach" of hammering the long end and let's yields and market returns rise "a beautiful bubble will form which will attract capital from all over the world in yet another frenzy"...including the human variant of course.http://money.cnn.com/2011/10/25/pf/America_boomtown_strippers/index.htm Wisconsin is well into surplushttp://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/walker-projects... sounds like a good place to do business then. not saying i'm ready to pick up stakes just yet but if you want to know "how may people can you fit in a particularly small piece of real estate" ye olde adage "you'd be suprised" comes to mind.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_of_North_Dakota hmmm. "they have their own Federal Reserve." that's interesting. and here's the Boston Fed looking at creating one for the State of Massachusetts: http://www.bos.frb.org/economic/neppc/researchreports/2011/rr1102.htm
interestingly it's considered "prohibitively expensive." ah, bailouts. "cost free?" that's a good one! good video...i recommend listening to it.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 16:23 | 2717009 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

Beware the Boston Fed. That's were Redlining came out under Styron and his boone friend, Bwarny Fwank. You know, people with no jobs, no skills, no fathers couldn't get mortgages for houses the couldn't afford on account of the greedy trickster banks be racist and all.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 16:02 | 2716981 jplotinus
jplotinus's picture

The essence of the article consists in its references to Social Security and Medicare as "welfare". With that mindset, it follows that the writer would conclude that more people of whatever demographic was chosen would vote for Romney.

The analytic of the article is useless, the assumptions hopelessly limited and the time frame under consideration too remote to be of any usefulness at all.

True, it's August, but surely someone could be found to write something better than what was offered up.

Oh, by the way, might not the current love/hate relationship with new immigrants tend more towards the love side as a remedy for the demographic curve? I think that could happen.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 16:02 | 2716982 Binko
Binko's picture

The main issue is that people are not just getting older, they are getting sicker.

Look around you at all the people you see who are hugely fat, waddling along with walkers or riding on carts, the mottled, bloated, saggy grey skinned, sickly looking ones. For the most part they aren't old grey-hairs. They are generally in their 40s and 50s. The really old people grew up with real food and some decent personal values. But the 40 year olds grew up with fast food and a single value, "me!".

So, if Medicare costs double what we can afford now, in ten years it will cost ten times what we can afford or more.

Sadly, I don't see ANY viable solution for the USA. Germany or Japan may find a solution to their demographic problem because they are close knit societies. We are not. We are a highly fragmented, well-armed society of religious freaks and semi-literate buffoons.

 

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 19:02 | 2717194 BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

"Religious Freaks" Amen Brother.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 22:16 | 2717423 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

""The really old people grew up with real food and some decent personal values." That is bullshit, sorry, they are every bit as obese and unhealthy as anyone else. How many are not blowing through medicare at a rate of $1000s per month on -antidepressants -aides -anti-hyper/anti-hyoptensives -statins -sleeping pills -diuretics -pacemakers -artificial joints -mobility aids -glucose stabilizers -N/SAIDs and every other type of medical product and service known to man. Decent personal values? Are you joking? The generation behind the New Deal and Medicare has "decent personal values"??? The ones who continually vote themselves every conceivable entitlement and then draw more from them than they could ever possibly have contributed?

ME! ME! ME! is every bit as much a hallmark of today's seniors as it the Boomers, and they have fucked the unborn every bit as much if not more.

"Germany or Japan may find a solution to their demographic problem because they are close knit societies. We are not. We are a highly fragmented, well-armed society of religious freaks and semi-literate buffoons." Irrelevant premises and an absurd conclusion parroting mindless xenophiliac liberal propaganda. Please explain the relationship between social fragmentation and religiosity, well-"armedness", and literacy, and the relevance of same to your opening statement: "The main issue is that people are not just getting older, they are getting sicker.".

Somehow I doubt even Bertrand Russell was as pretentious as your post.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 16:04 | 2716985 Nels
Nels's picture

There's a conflict between 3 and 4.  Some of the reduced consumption comes from lower income, which then suggests that while service will be a bigger part of the economy, it's because the rest of the economy is reduced, not that the service part increases.

Of course, demand for service will increase, expecially medical.  That doesn't mean there will be money to pay for it.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 16:40 | 2717030 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

Lots of abandoned factory buildings. Put the predead, costsinks in Stainless pens over sloped epoxy painted floored concrete to hose down every day. Diet of Skittles and fries. Pink slime burgers on Sunday. Staff will be surly union affirmative action illiterates stilling meds and drugs. 24/7 CNN on the flatscreen.
Gulag Oldapeligo.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 21:13 | 2717328 Manthong
Manthong's picture

That is on page 2,322 of the Health Care Reform Act but nobody else has read that far yet.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 22:05 | 2717401 Acorn10012
Acorn10012's picture

Well, they had to pass the bill to find out what was in it. And Palin's a dumbass...she's got a lot of company.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 16:06 | 2716989 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

You can see it in the employment numbers: 41.6% nonemployment rate in US. And it is all downhill from here.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/08/18/unemployment-the-trac...

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 16:42 | 2717033 bunnyswanson
bunnyswanson's picture

Tax deductible charitable donations from the elite to churches, which will provide those who "join" their congregation may be what develops.  This will force us to falsely worship our saviors as we struggle to get through the day.  In a land where civil unrest is prevalent, sleep is lost and if any of us know what a day is like after a sleepless night, we are compromised greatly. 

Young folks are more apt to be functional under this type of duress (sleepless and stressed) but today's young are different, self-absorbed and propelled by their own needs.  It's a dismal picture of what may come.  Only solution I can think of is seizing the stolen loot.  But, that seems unlikely.  This is all in the plan, I believe. 

Does anyone else get an ad for a local attorney and mug shots of 2 crying contorted-face convicts when they come to ZH, like me?

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 17:45 | 2717112 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

The ads you see are largely due to the web sites that you visit. Your OS or browser is selling the info to retailers so that they can spam you. Welcome to the future, now be careful what you think!

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 22:07 | 2717404 Acorn10012
Acorn10012's picture

I'm thinking about Sugar Daddy girls but its been awhile since seeing that ad.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 16:13 | 2716994 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Retirees:

Listen up.

Rob a bank, shoot a banker and go to jail. 3 hots and a cot and free medical care and tv.

You have to wing the bastard or they'll just cut you loose.

Crimes against banks WILL be prosecuted.

Crimes BY banks...Faggedaboudit.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 19:50 | 2717232 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Soon TPTB will make that a "hate crime" like setting synagogues and rabbis on fire.  I suppose there's some (a lot of?) truth to it being a "hate crime".

Sun, 08/19/2012 - 05:37 | 2717748 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

"In Amerika bank rob you!"

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 16:13 | 2716995 phat ho
phat ho's picture

give'em cake I say...

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 16:15 | 2716996 AurorusBorealus
AurorusBorealus's picture

Unfortunately, this information does not include the expense of Medicare.  Don't fret Geither and the other members of the Medicare Trust Fund are on the scene... http://www.ssa.gov/oact/trsum/index.html  .  Also, many seniors, perhaps as many as 1 in 3, are dual eligible for Medicare and Medicaid, and so receive Medicaid benefits as well.  Also, states offer supplemental Social Security for low income seniors.  Many seniors also receive Welfare cash benefits, housing subsidized by the FHA, food stamps (I would hazard a guess that 1 in 4 seniors receive food stamps), public subsidies for transportation (paid for by lottery funds and other means).  In fact, probably the greatest position to be in globally, is to be an American over the age of 65.  The benefits lavished upon the elderly in America are so far beyond absurd as to defy all reason.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 17:50 | 2717121 j8h9
j8h9's picture

I'd be curious to know how many posters on this board do not have healthcare insurance and thus use the emergency room at the hospital for all their medical needs. I saw on the news dental issues were the #1 reason for the uninsured visiting the hospital. We all know that this process is far more expensive to taxpayers than if these persons had their own insurance. Anybody out there using their local hospital for free med coverage?

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 18:10 | 2717139 DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

You must be getting wrong info about something.  I've never simultaneously been sick and had insurance, and it's worked out fine - and I've never gotten free care either.

These days, it is in fact harder to get care without insurance, as they know they are charging more (much) than most people could pay, especially the always-sick types.  But I'm not one of them.

They are indeed often surprised when I say I'll just write a check, but I think I actually get better service than the insured do once they get the idea they're going to be paid, on time, and without a ton of expensive paperwork.  Of course, the downside for them is that unlike the insurance, I pay attention to what services were actually rendered, and refuse to pay for those that were not, which I find on every bill when I go to a hospital.

WTF makes you think the emergency room is free?  If you can pay, you must - and in many cases, they'll charge you as though every intern on the floor had seen you for an hour, even if only one did and that only for 5 minutes out of a total stay of 45 minutes.

They can even garnish your wages.  The will not admit you for actual treatment till a heck of a lot of info is gathered on you - like where you work, your bank account and so on.  You gots to be pretty tricksy to get "free".

And haven once been mistaken for a deadbeat, let me tell you, the treatment you get is very minimal if that's what they think.  I got hit with a high power rifle shot - blew off half my face, so I couldn't answer questions.  I was put on the "let 'em die" ward and untreated for 10 hours till one of my posse came in, fished out my wallet, and showed them two business cards in it - my accountant, and lawyer - and asked which they'd want to be dealing with...then suddenly I got grade A treatment.

Insurance is the CAUSE of high health care prices.  They pay without question all those fraudulent bills no real person would, and they have zero motive to stop the fraud, since they work on a cost plus basis.  Well, the other cause is the insane cost of malpractice, since the lawyers write all the laws, they don't leave themselves out of the gravy train.  So you get a ton of things done to prevent a malpractice suit that you don't need done...and that sure adds costs too.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 18:47 | 2717180 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

Free-erish markets supply good and services in line with what the target customer can afford.
In the early automobile era you went to a coach builder and had a custom car built. Only the rich by and large owned cars. Then came Ford and constant cost control, delivering a fantastic product that was adorable. Same thing with computers.
However, Dr's laid down with the government during the Progressive era and it's been off to the inefficient, high cost races ever since then.
Insurance loves high cost which corrals customers. Pharama loves big insurance. Doctors like the market protection they get from big gov. Gov loves anything they can get in amongsts. All like the present price protection and shielding from creative destruction.

Workers, competing amongst themselves, against illegals, China etc al, under labor cost pressure to afford a politically hooked up, non price competitive industry. Medicine.
How's that going to work?
So the logical steep is for labor to use their votes to recapture/take control of the other actors and make them work at labors price point. Which is what ObamaHillaryRomneycare is. This will work out about as well as public housing/edumakation. High costs, poor quality, endlessly politicalized.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 21:17 | 2717333 ClassicalLib17
ClassicalLib17's picture

DC, that was the most heart-rending story I ever heard.  I'm 58,  I have smoked cigarettes most of my life and I drink 2 fifths of Makers Mark a week.  But,  I eat very healthy foods.  I am following my Marine Corps father's plan:  I don't go to the doctor anymore and when the end comes, I will go quickly.  I don't want to live on meds and minus body parts.  God bless

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 18:50 | 2717183 Tinky
Tinky's picture

I am in my mid-fifties, and have never had health insurance. I have never had any remotely serious health issue, and never had to make a trip to the ER. I took an alternative health care path early on, thanks to an enlightening experience with an ignorant mainstream MD. I learned how to understand and care for my body, and have spent a modest amount of money on preventive therapies such as serious massage (especially Rolfing), etc.

There is, of course, always a risk of a catastrophic injury (e.g. car accidents, etc.), and so it is risky to go without any insurance. However, in terms of non-catastrophic medical care, I have saved a huge amount of money, and am far healthier than the vast majority of the U.S. populace.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 17:55 | 2717126 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

Yes except that now you won't get any "care" at all, just red tape and a big dumb blue pill to keep you less mindful of the pain. They took the money FROM medicare FOR the new plan, you know the one for YOUNG productive people. 

Maybe you're better off not having the surgery, but taking the pain killer..,

Sun, 08/19/2012 - 05:49 | 2717754 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

There will be big buildings were lots of people work/ shuffle around. It will be called, hospital. It will be to health what public schools are to intellectual development. There will be a cafeteria serving cold pizza. The will watch the old George C. Scott movie, Paddy Chyaefsky's "The Hospital" for quality control tips. It will be all unionized.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 16:18 | 2717001 phat ho
phat ho's picture

1/2 way through the babyboomer retirement era and I feel the mentality will WTFU as it will become blatantly obvious it is far too glutonous to sustain the unsustainable

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 16:20 | 2717003 Rene-Paul
Rene-Paul's picture

Youth in Asia is a possible answer.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 18:58 | 2717188 Apostate2
Apostate2's picture

No solution there because 'Asia' is on the same trajectory--low fertility, rising life expectancy and rapid increase in old-age dependency ratio. Indeed this process has accelerated rapidly from the 1970s. All parts of Asia are not equivalent but in the Far East it is happening rapidly. For example, Hong Kong's current old-age dependancy ratio is 16% of the population and will double by 2030 and will exceed Japan in this regard. China too is on the aging fast track (though life expectancy is lower but gender-skewed--more males than females because of sex-selected abortions and the one child policy created that abomination). What is rather surprising is that this article does not address the other side of the equation--fertility.

This is not just an economic issue but a policy issue.

Sun, 08/19/2012 - 01:02 | 2717650 Praetor
Praetor's picture

I think he may be referring to Ali G.

Sun, 08/19/2012 - 06:24 | 2717770 Apostate2
Apostate2's picture

'booyakasha', yeah baby.

I had a laugh.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 16:21 | 2717005 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

wait!  no wonder!

the census didn't count the illegals!

we're saved by the Bijoles, BiCheZ!

 

 

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 16:26 | 2717014 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

it's only temporary tyler

they go to mexico to visit their money like i am going to the casino now:  to visit mine!

see ya! 

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 16:43 | 2717034 Colonel
Colonel's picture

LOL. The native Americans appreciate your patronage.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 18:47 | 2717151 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Just ask the UK how that program worked out for them. A once sought out government program to generate new tax revenues becomes, unintended consequences to the fiscal support system.

 

UK Slave: We’re now borrowing  68 pence for every pound spent. Bloody hell!

Mysterious Voice: Calm down peasant, the Olympics will flood our country with riches never seen before. That number will vaporize your calculations and generate a £ surplus that we can all cherish over. [ha ha ha..  Cherio lad]

 Edit:

We ran our beta program over here in the UK. Now we can’t collect the revenues we thought. Some sort of sharia law tax loop they got us under. We have just started a soft promotion study group in San Fruitsisco. Have a look..

City of San Francisco to place sharia-compliant disclaimers next to every AFDI pro-Israel bus ad 

We hope our study group can find new ways to collect the needed taxation. Once we figure out the puzzle, will take this bitch global.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 19:50 | 2717231 dolph9
dolph9's picture

I knew this would happen eventually, but on the ground I'm not seeing it.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 16:24 | 2717011 Angus McHugepenis
Angus McHugepenis's picture

The census bureau can't count... PERIOD!

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 16:22 | 2717006 phat ho
phat ho's picture

yummy

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 16:28 | 2717016 l1b3rty
l1b3rty's picture

oh a deindustrialization designed and the distractions to enable it to happen...

http://silvervigilante.com

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 16:36 | 2717026 jwoop66
jwoop66's picture

If Obamacare stays in place, the old folks will start dropping like flies.   The ones that hang on will eventually be deemed to expensive for medical care other than pain killers.   Bullish for opiates and narcotics.   

There is one political party that mentions trying to do something about it from time to time, but as soon as they speak, the other party accuses them of trying to kill granny.  Of course they are both the same some of you will say.  At least one of them does squeek up once in a while, but the populists in the other shut them right up.   Half the country mindlessly listens to the populists(who also advocate what some of us call statism).  

Self reliance is going to make a comeback whether some want it or not.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 17:15 | 2717069 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

I am hoping common sense makes a comeback.

People get old and they die. It is called the life-cycle. Medical expenditures are generally the largest in the last year(s)of life. One has to question to what end. But very few ever do.

Many doctors have become more vocal on treatments they themselves would not take, but are forced to prescribe. End of life treatments, terminal illness treatments. 

We live in a world of limited resources. We live in a world of limited quality of life. We live in a world where people should start talking about these issues. 

We are all terminal. 

I have had the benefit of being very ill, very young. I say benefit because as an adult i have an understanding of these issues that only experience in youth and as a young sdult provide.

When the time comes I will choose the morphine over invasive surgery that merely extends my life by months. I will choose dying at home without the 3, 6 or 9 extra months in a hospital. I will also choose them for my loved ones. We have had those discussions.

Anything after 80 is icing on the cake. I plan on making that icing my own. I think it is time as a society we start having those discussions. 

 

 

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 18:15 | 2717143 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

did you know that your words resonate with 80% of the women of this world and 20% of the men?and the other half of humanity would say "I want to live forever"?

it's a preference

by being a preference people are born with, it's automatically a natural hot button issue

perfectly suited to clog the political channels and distract people for years

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 19:00 | 2717191 jwoop66
jwoop66's picture

I agree with you.  My mother has alzheimers and I told my sisters that if it happens to me I will save a bullet for a lucid moment and do what I have to(assuming that is how I feel if/when it happens).   This would be my choice, though.

That is the crucial point.  

I don't want the local beaurocrat interpreting the letter of the regulations regardless of actual circumstances.   If I or my loved ones have the resources to supply me with things that will extend my life, I want to have access to those resources.  If I can live to 100 years old with a good quality of life, that is what I want.   If a heart transplant at 80 gives me that ability, then I want the transplant.  With obamacare, I would be willing to bet that would not happen simply because the regulations at the time(this is hypothetical of course) say 79 years old is the cut-off.  

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 19:52 | 2717233 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

If you have at minimum the $1million plus dollars to pay for a heart transplant at 80 then it is your for the taking. Plus the hundreds of thousands of dollars for follow-up, and multiple medications.

Here is the thing, have you ever had abdominal surgery, chest surgery? The risk of emboli, infection, rejection go up for ever year one gets older. It takes me 6 weeks to 3 months to fully recover from abdominal surgery. I am many, many decades younger than 80, of normal weight and run 40 miles a week. 

I am also fairly certain that no transplant surgeon would tell you he would take that surgery at 80. The chances for a full recovery are very very small. Further, given the limited availability of hearts, each and every time i would argue for it to go to the man/woman who is 40. So would Unos.

This is the discussion about limited resources that needs to occur. I am sorry life isn't fair, medicare cannot afford this type of surgery for an 80 year old. Never will be able to. Never was designed to. If you have the millions to put up and can source a heart, than i suppose it is your money to spend as you wish. But it is NOT yours to demand of any publically funded healthcare system, given the metrics you are describing. 

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 21:08 | 2717317 jwoop66
jwoop66's picture

Once again, its hypothetical.  With a publicly funded health care system no one but the beaurocrats will make any decisions- that is the point.

Sun, 08/19/2012 - 13:44 | 2718349 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

If you're willing to accept a Palestinian or Chinese heart, you can probably get the whole thing done for a lot less than $1 million in an offshore facility.   IMHO, the practice is criminal beyond belief.

 

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 19:04 | 2717196 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Lizzy36

 

You always put things into perspective. Bravo!

 

Life is short. You can be so vain by living your life under someone else’s health mandates. In the end, you will still die. Life cycles is the key word.

+1,000 green arrows

Sun, 08/19/2012 - 00:49 | 2717634 dark_matter
dark_matter's picture

I like the primal motto: Live long, Drop dead.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 22:12 | 2717418 duo
duo's picture

granny should be given a choice between getting that knee transplant / being kept alive with Alzheimers or having her grandchildren's college paid for. 

There was enough wealth in this country to provide for our old people, but we pissed it away in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, bank bailouts, DHS, and the Great Society.

Sun, 08/19/2012 - 02:07 | 2717689 Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

I went to high school with a lot of the wealth this country pissed away in Vietnam. That wealth came home in bags.

Sun, 08/19/2012 - 02:06 | 2717688 Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

 

Self reliance is going to make a comeback whether some want it or not.

Surely the feds will eventually create a Department of Self Reliance and show us the correct way to do it.

Sun, 08/19/2012 - 10:59 | 2717989 jwoop66
jwoop66's picture

LOL!   You're right!    Then we know we're fucked!   +1

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 16:45 | 2717037 whoknoz
whoknoz's picture

doomagraphics...and ZH puts it right up front every day...

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 16:46 | 2717038 phat ho
phat ho's picture

... and it will come like an avalanche

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 16:51 | 2717045 Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

Well, I'm trying to remain hopeful that we all make it another 35 years...If we are broke now, what will our country look like when then?

 

I hope everyone is following the Brandon Raub story. Obviously not being reported by the mainstream media, but basically Veteran being jailed for Facebook posts. www.TopTheNews.com

 

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 18:58 | 2717189 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

" If we are broke now, what will our country look..."

It will look like the future, Brockton Ma, East St Louis, Newark, Oakland, Gary, Birmingham and hundreds of once famous wealth producing cities that are now welfare zones until a la Detroit the housing stock decays into rubble.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 16:53 | 2717048 GOLDTEETHSILVER...
GOLDTEETHSILVERFILLINGS's picture

Face the fact Charley Brown that the end of the road be a comin'...

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 17:08 | 2717060 azusgm
azusgm's picture

Don't worry. The obits in the local papers show that the 50-somethings are dying at an unseemly rate. The demographic cliff soon will look more like a glide path. You young ones are saved.

Sorry your inheritance from Granny won't be worth too much since her CDs haven't kept up with inflation.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 22:39 | 2717457 Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

Granny didn't have any CDs. But her Tijuana Brass LPs are great for near-sighted skeet shooting.

Sun, 08/19/2012 - 01:37 | 2717675 azusgm
azusgm's picture

LOL. That's actually pretty funny.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 17:14 | 2717066 Translator
Translator's picture

Are you kidding? It's RECOVERY SUMMER THREE!!!!!!!!!!!

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 17:14 | 2717067 mrdenis
mrdenis's picture


Soylent Green ....problem solved 

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 18:30 | 2717161 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

Renew!

Sun, 08/19/2012 - 00:04 | 2717587 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Finally, it got said.  I'm feelin' queasy!

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 17:17 | 2717071 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

New MSM sock puppet TV campaign..  Save the bankers or you'll end up going bust..

 

Whoever controls the volume of money in our country is absolute master of all industry and commerce…when you realize that the entire system is very easily controlled, one way or another, by a few powerful men at the top, you will not have to be told how periods of inflation and depression originate.

-James Garfield, 20th President Of U.S. Assassinated in 1881

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 17:32 | 2717074 kevinearick
kevinearick's picture

Mutual of Omaha

The global economy is contained, and nature is systematically taking out its power systems, which expect climate equilibrium, with increasing climate variability, as the global IC chip systematically reduces gravitational diversity, shorting the relativity circuit.

Yes, gold will appreciate, relative to all the collapsing currencies, but its value is already collapsing relative to those building real income streams, transforming nonperforming assets in the process. The robots are on Survivor Island, hoping to control the currency outcome. Do you see how a black hole operates now?

If Congress creates X debt, which it can never repay, which is Krugman’s assumption – government does not operate like a family, its budget is not constrained, it is God, which explains system symptomatic behavior, and Apple, along with all the other “bad” banks, is issued a digital cash surplus accordingly, what is that “cash” on the sideline, on survivor island, worth? Why do you suppose Google hires out of secret service?

Bring out those suitcases full of cash, show the cash, and then circulate it, with a dye, so the dumbest robot on the planet can watch.

The DERIVATIVE feedback loop spine, with no reality check, is Facebook, California, Apple, Fed, JPM, and the FIRE up the circuit accelerates as the crisis is “managed.” Detroit was Greece. California is one of the largest economies on the planet. Forget Italy, Spain, and the Euro. Like Greece, California is holding a gun, fashioned by JPM, at the head of the Fed, which is now the taxpayer, and to which JPM is a leading partner.

Step out of the way. Robot habit ensures the outcome. JPM doesn’t do anything. You pick up the ball, run it to the end zone, the field flips, JPM scores, and you get the ball back on your 20. You are surprised, but you go back, pick up the ball and run it to the end zone again, expecting a different outcome. Which is insane, JPM, you, or both? Build a real playing field and others will join you. Don’t join the robots, to work within the black hole, where the enemy of better, in a relatively closed system, is best. Practice with real talent.

If the Fed so much as inches toward the necessary quantum bailout of CA, Apple will burn up. If it doesn’t, Apple will burn up. The only question is the path of the black hole’s center of gravity, not where it will be, but when it will be. It’s a wave, propagating along a mirror, between explicit and implicit ignition.

That chart shows you that VIX is an implicit ratchet. The Fed hides the real ratchet action, until it can’t, and POP, the “arms and legs” of another middle class event horizon get ripped off. You can terminate the pensions, or fire everyone and terminate the pensions. Look at the treasury fuse on fire, heading back to the Fed. Reorganizing the Fed is a ruse.

We build the hydra ourselves, by choosing to avoid nature. Government offers you the choice of assistance, to the end of its own growth, through capital preservation, in a positive feedback loop, until it becomes a tyrant and ignites itself. The outcome depends upon how you fashion the fuel components as they are loaded during the process.

Would you rather adapt to nature in any one of a relatively infinite number of ways, to increase natural diversity, or choose to follow the government edict with your vote, which is a race to the least common denominator of mutually perceived equal outcomes, on empire TV, an equal opportunity to win a completely artificial, rigged, lottery economy?

Women are behind in time due to biological gravity, creating cognitive dissonance between the sexes, but both end up in the same place. The only question is which men and which women, distilled on opposite sides of a looking glass, filtered by false assumptions.

The opposite of saying one thing and doing another, tying up resources, is doing one thing and saying another. What may you expect these people to do and say if you just do, or say? What is the effect on the explicit side as you build your implicit key?

What does the empire see? What does nature see? What is happening to the chemistry? What is physics? On / in what time are you?

There is no single answer. There is no single plan. There an infinite number of plans, from which you may originate, participate, and choose a path, on your journey, building the tree of life, from which death, the tree of knowledge, and rebirth, are the derivatives. The feedback loop to equilibrium depends upon the choices you make, or your attempt to avoid responsibility for choice, leaving it to others.

The boomers built the greatest economic motor in History, and now we are destroying it. Pick up the pieces and run with them, or bitch and moan about not getting an equal share of the past. That is life and death.

If for no more intelligent reason than to tell government, the boomers, us, to go f- ourselves, pick up the pieces, recast, and get on with your lives, in an economy of your own choosing. Parenting and its outcome, Democracy, are counter-intuitive, relative to what you see on TV, and, increasingly, on the Internet.

How are those Internet IPOs going in this iteration? What does that tell you about time?

As it turns out, life is not a choice among presented options. To enjoy the prosperity of liberty, you must set your own course, and build your own bridge. Or, be a robot, like the hoarders trying to grab you about the neck and pull you down.

You are the 1%, not Romney, Obama, or anyone they represent. Don’t wait until the Buffets, Gates, Dimons, or Soros types of the world, representing majorities manufactured to the purpose, pull the Pavlov bait and switch. Staying ahead of the curve, with the rights granted to you by God at birth, is far more effective than exerting increasing energy to catch the curve.

Once you recognize the Pavlov switching system on the explicit side, you will also see that you are the generator, and NPV is a function of generational choices, as it should be. Place your meter where it belongs, in nature. Send your kids to public school to observe black hole operation, and lessons learned in nature, beyond your horizon. The implicit multiplexer is a trust fund, always well beyond the empire’s reach.

Be patient, have your children, build your business, and place your faith in the unknown. God wins every time, which s WHY. Don’t rule yourself out and expect not to be ruled with an Iron Fist, Glove or no, increasingly beyond your reach.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 17:45 | 2717107 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Bifurcation : chaos is coming and your agency matters

 

The idiots continue to find strengths in an already failed utopian system. They truly believe, their ways are the only way. As history has shown, these folks generally end up taking a dirt nap.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 19:01 | 2717192 Seer
Seer's picture

As far as the "boomers" building the greatest economic machine, well... it depends on whether you see the byproducts that were produced.  Also depends on whether one believes that this is a finite planet or not: if seen as finite (which it is) then one must agree that perpetual growth, which the great economic machine was based on, is NOT a favorable thing when measured in the long-term.

"God wins every time"

Whose "God" might that be?  And, does "God" smile when he/she/it "wins?"

I prefer: "Mother Nature bats last."

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 21:43 | 2717371 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Seer

 

In 1978, I first tapped onto a computer keyboard using MSDOS. The unit was called a Heathkit H89. Much to my resistance, my father taught me how to build a computer and program in basic. I never chose computer technology as a career path, never have regretted it.

 

Since 1978 Atomizer timeline

Two computer in the house in 1980. One had a green screen & the other amber

Had a Atari. Could download all new games via computer 5-1/2” disk and burn the EPROM chip to woo my friends.

Had a remote control TV

Had both Beta and VHS VCR’s

Had a record player turntable, bought a tape cassette to record songs from speakers. Then the dual cassette player arrived in my room.

Had a phone in my room without voicemail, call waiting, etc. When my parents grounded me, I would dial up phantom calls from my bedroom and listen for my mom to pick up the phone.. Hello, hello

 

In the late 80’s

Had a Motorola transportable cell phone

Had a pager

Had a MicroTAC Flip Phone

Had a phone message recorder

 

In the 90’s

Re-entered the computer scene, bought a Packard Bell computer

Bought a Nokia 6160

Bought a Compaq Presario

Had a laptop

 

I can go on, but there is no point. We live in a world described as “ product obsolesces

 

Back in the day when MSN chat was mainstream. I was the guy who come into your chat and either scared the shit out of you thru the use of kiddie script bots or booted your brown hammer monitors. Then, I went in for the kill by taking out the gold hammer chat host. I realized my actions were not healthy [more to the story, we will just leave to MSN chat story as my reason]. I took a year off the internet [by today’s standards, it would be deleting your Facebook or twitter account].  

 

When I returned, security became my mission. True story and was not arrested. I just became a very sick person. The folks running this mickey mouse monetary system have the same sickness that I once had.  In the future, when you see me pushing the envelope, understand that Atomizer knows how they think..

 

Lastly, I have many new patentable idea’s, just will not share. I’d rather watch the leaches die in their greed before offering new technological concepts. That my friend, is how you bring down an oligarchy.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 22:42 | 2717462 Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

I gave up having stuff in favor of having a life.

It's a lot cheaper, and in either case, eventually it'll be gone anyway.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 21:26 | 2717344 Lednbrass
Lednbrass's picture

You didn't build the economic machine, you borrowed it from the future and have the collective nerve to claim credit.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 22:11 | 2717413 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

I definitely DO NOT want to smoke any of what you're smoking. What a useless diatribe. (kevinearick)

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 17:25 | 2717082 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

The legacy of FDR who not only stole our gold and refused to leave office after 2 terms, but started the biggest ponzi scheme in history called Social Security.  FDR was a man of the times along with Hitler and Mussolini--One over rated guy.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 17:31 | 2717090 s n p
s n p's picture

great post.  so what are potential options?

  1. restrict or eliminate the ability to vote yourself benefits-loss of rights
  2. export seniors/aging populations to other countries, planets, etc
  3. continue to degrade currency to pay for benefit programs, unitl?
  4. gradual/drastic reduction of benefit programs-but not in a democracy you dont
  5. increase in populations to create a new baby boom.  they will live where? 
  6. exterminate older populations or begin life limits-its time for you to leave
  7. extend retirment age limits on benefits-FICA benefits at 95...
  8. create new wealth which pays for programs
  9. widespread catastrophe/collapse and rebirth-only the young survive?

i dont doubt all of these will play out somewhere.  can we add to the list?

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 17:46 | 2717114 j8h9
j8h9's picture

Communes. Communes are the solution. Send the old and penniless souls to live on farms. Or cut the defense budget, stop funding/building more military installations all ovr the world. Legalize and tax pot and have all the money go to fund the well-being of the older and poverty-stricken population. Lots of things could actually be done except certain political populations would oppose them based on ideology.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 18:23 | 2717152 Binko
Binko's picture

Communal farms are actually not a bad idea. We have to abandon the idea that people simply stop working when they hit some magic number like 65 years old. Living where you can be out of doors working at least part time for your food would be a wonderful improvement in quality of life for most old people.

I'm pushing 60 myself and slowly descending into poverty since the factory I used to work at got shut down and the work shipped off to the deep south. The main difference between me and most of the people my age is that I don't mind physical labor, I can happily live on beans and rice and greens and I can amuse myself with simple things like a pair of hiking boots or a sketchpad.

In other words I can live a fairly low resource use lifestyle. But most of the people I know are fixated on holding on to all the familiar luxuries, the big house, golf course, big car, boat, fancy meals out, vacation trips, electronic toys etc. It's this lifestyle that is not sustainable.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 22:58 | 2717490 Bear
Bear's picture

Liberty ... it's a wonderful thing ... you and I are probably much alike ... but, I don't have a big house, no golf, no vacations (mother-in-law living with us in 2 bed room rented house), no boat, few meals out ... but I have five computers, 1 ipod, 2 ipads, two printers, three big screen tv's and a million in the  bank

Sun, 08/19/2012 - 13:42 | 2718342 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

Get rid of government.

Rely on friends and families, not the Fatherland.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 19:03 | 2717195 Seer
Seer's picture

Increase the numbers of brown bears and lions while decreasing the available ammo...

#6 = Logan's Run!

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 22:17 | 2717426 newworldorder
newworldorder's picture

Carousel  !! 

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 22:43 | 2717466 Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

You can vote yourself all the benefits you want. But when the bag's empty, it doesn't really matter how the vote went or who counted the ballots.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 17:32 | 2717091 Red Heeler
Red Heeler's picture

Impact on political races?

Only Diebold has an impact on political races.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 22:44 | 2717469 Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

The political race.

The human race.

Who will win?

 

I'm guessing nobody.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 17:34 | 2717095 kayl
kayl's picture

1. The monetary system is completely fake. The government doesn't give anyone any money. They dish out the credit that they have stolen from the People for their entire lives.

2. Boomers have been very successful up until now-- working, saving, and investing until the strip mining operations began. Medicare represents a drop in the bucket for most people who invested wisely. My folks were earning $200,000 a year during retirement. Due to market manipulation those earnings can no longer be achieved by Baby Boomers.

3. When the government sends in all of its fake bills, we can use the UCC and Secured Party Creditor status to discharge all the debt on paper. Hey, they created this fake fiat-based monetary system, so we might as well learn how to use it.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 19:10 | 2717201 Seer
Seer's picture

"they created this fake fiat-based monetary system, so we might as well learn how to use it."

It's NOT REAL!  As such it WILL FAIL!  Jumping on a sinking ship isn't a wise thing to do.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 17:41 | 2717099 vegas
vegas's picture

Hey Barbie, math sure is a bitch isn't it? If I were in my 20's and a US citizen, I would do whatever is necessary to get the hell out of Amerika and settle someplace where I had a future and could prosper. I would stay single and debt free and try out Costa Rica, Colombia, Chile, and Panama as places I might go. I would either get a second passport or a permanent resident visa. The smart ones will 'disappear off the grid and go John Galt. The rest of you will still believe in hope & change and pay confiscatory taxes, along with loss of personal freedom, well into the future. The America I knew growing up is dead; all that is left is a socialist shit hole that will get far, far worse.

 

http://vegasxau.blogspot.com

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 17:43 | 2717110 Gromit
Gromit's picture

Go south young man.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 18:01 | 2717133 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

I have heard good things regarding Chile, their parliment told the military there ain't no way you're going to get involved in a land war in Asia when lobbied to join in the US Asian games...

Sun, 08/19/2012 - 03:13 | 2717706 kayl
kayl's picture

Pura Vida!

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 17:40 | 2717101 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

Be prepared to receive $653 per month instead of the $1142 promised in your annual Social Security statement.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 17:47 | 2717116 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Or be prepared to receive that sum, when you turn 80 years of age

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 17:42 | 2717108 Gromit
Gromit's picture

It is because of our demographics that Government encourages immigration of young well educated workers.

 

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 18:05 | 2717120 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

In Canada, it's even worse. 2 workers for one retired in 2031. Thing is, retirees are costlier in Canada... free health care and all.

But let's be real about all this, no way the current systems makes it even to 2020.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 18:23 | 2717153 Sockeye
Sockeye's picture

Free health care in Canada will be completely killed by the boomer wave.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 18:27 | 2717159 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

I'm old and I only went to the emergency room 3 times last week for a bleeding nose. I was down one litre of saline.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 21:30 | 2717352 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

You might be kidding but yeah some people do that. And even worse... some people just go to the hospital to talk to people because they are lonely.

I say it stays ``free`` but to enter, you need to pay a 100$ fee upfront every time. It would surely help...

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 20:03 | 2717241 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Yep. And when Obamacare fails and the US goes to a Canada-like single payer system, it's gonna kill the US too.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 17:51 | 2717123 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

I think we will eventually go back to what families were like, with three generations under the one roof, because the state will not be able to maintain the pace to cover future expectations. It's already behind because the social security trust fund has been squandered and the IOU's aren't worth shit.

Then again it may be the oldies nursing the young through their drug addictions, obesity, diabetes and other problems.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 19:47 | 2717227 Seer
Seer's picture

What? no more 3,000 sq ft houses with two people?

Most of the world lives in multi-generational housing.

"Then again it may be the oldies nursing the young through their drug addictions, obesity, diabetes and other problems."

"other problems" to include addiction to techno-gadgets (which the corporate and govt world uses very well to keep them captive).

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 20:33 | 2717275 azusgm
azusgm's picture

I have an 83 y/o and a 91 y/o living here with me and enjoy them both. They are good cooks, bright women, and nice housemates. Besides, they are family and I love them. Other families may be amazed at how well these arrangements can work.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 17:58 | 2717131 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Eat your peas

B.O

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 18:07 | 2717138 reader2010
reader2010's picture

That's why they have created BRIC for their future rapes.

Sat, 08/18/2012 - 18:25 | 2717156 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

There probably won't even be any icebergs around in 2035 for relocating seniors.

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