Apple Angst As Expectations Remain Extreme

Tyler Durden's picture

Apple is down 1.5% pre-market and comfortably back below its 50DMA on a top-line (and notably activations) miss from AT&T among other anxiety-inducing sentiment this morning. Perhaps what is really providing all the performance anxiety is the extreme expectations that are piled upon this greater-than-bellwether stock that has become the market. As Bloomberg's chart-of-the-day notes, Apple needs to surpass estimates by a wider margin than most of its peers in the S&P 500 in order to satisfy investors - if history is any guide. On an adjusted per-share basis, profits have beaten estimates by about 19% on average over the past seven years - a true under-promise over-deliver strategy. As Colin Gillis of BGC Partners notes, "Apple will need to smash records to keep momentum" as surpassing the $9.98/share by 20% is an impressive feat indeed as they point out that seven of the nine times Apple's shares have fallen the day after earnings has been when earnings beat by less than 20%. Performance anxiety indeed.


And AAPL is stumbling once again this morning...

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
ZeroPower's picture

What happens in pre is just noise to get the retail sheep excited. Nobody would actually move any sort of size during p/m or a/h

Soul Train's picture

True indeed.

Expectations are high. That's a setup. Competitors are always around the corner in this market segment - nothing lasts forever.

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Strong support at $550. Savvy value investors will be looking to take advantage of any temporary arbitrage should there be a sell off.

SheepDog-One's picture

Was $650 just a few days ago douche nozzle.

Badabing's picture

Bite to deep into the AAPL and you get a mouth full of seeds.

Oh regional Indian's picture

 Apple seeds do contain a small amount of cyanide, which is a lethal poison, but you are protected from the toxin by the hard seed coating. If you eat whole apple seeds, they pass through your digestive system relatively untouched. If you chew the seeds thoroughly, you will be exposed to the chemicals inside the seeds, but the dose of toxins in an apple is small enough that your body can easily detoxify it......

Or so they say anyway.

Very interesting, only slightly tangential note on apple.

Apple is very poorly represented in India. Overpriced, crappy stores, poorly trained personnel, crappy service, high high prices.... why? India, a market overwhelmed by the desire for all things white and shiney, why?

So, Apple has virtually shut themselves out of one of the fastest growing and most easily fooled consumer electronics markets in the world., giving way to Samsung.

I smell collusion, price and gepgraphy fixing.

May it fall, gravitaionally assisted at 9.8 m/sec2

By the way, for those of occult leanings, an Apple's core makes a pentagram.



Metalredneck's picture

If at first, you don't suck seed, keep on sucking 'til you do suck seed...

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

650 .. 550 .. what difference does it make when the short term price target is 700, followed by 1000 shortly after?

GetZeeGold's picture



Baked in and guaranteed!


SheepDog-One's picture

$1,000 is whose target, yours? Then I'm sure youre all in leveraged....sleep well toots.

Colombian Gringo's picture

Hey MDB, you wouldn't be talking your book, would you??  Hint: that thing in your mouth after biting the apple ain't a seed.....

GetZeeGold's picture




7 minutes into trading.....


Volume........................1.12 Mil

Avg Daily Vol (13 Wks)..23.45 Mil


MeelionDollerBogus's picture

The difference is the short-term target is more like 500 and the long-term target is more like 400

nugjuice's picture

I would hardly call one resistance test at $550 'strong' support. More like the 'only' support above about $400

resurger's picture

i cant wait, when it reaches the support level of 550 i will sell more

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Strong support at 100, medium-strength at 400. No support at 550

kalasend's picture

Let me tell you a scarier version, silicon valley anecdoctal style....

Apple is a slavery house. No, not Foxconn of Dong Guan. I'm talking about Cupertino. Apple has been on a hiring spree and most new engineers are suckered in for the ESPP and stock options. These poor souls had to endure unreasonably long hours(just Google around for that). Considering their reward is relatively lower than the longer-term Apple veterans, a few quarters of less than stellar performance plus stock volatility can really turn their moods upside down. 

On the outside, however, there are another army of corporate suckers who think that luring Apple's engineers would add a lot to their values, if not for direct competition reasons. So there you have it: a perfect storm of exodus brewing. Let's watch.

Comay Mierda's picture

Nobody would actually move any sort of size during p/m or a/h


asymmetric service initiatives bitchez

SheepDog-One's picture

What retail sheep? Apple is just a fund wagon.

hedgeless_horseman's picture



"I feel so safe packed in here with all these other smart sheep."

"Me too.  Did you hear NFLX got sheared? Down 13% today!"

"So?  I could get out of here anytime I want...
Ewe see that little gate right over there?  Sometimes it opens!"

Agent P's picture

I have to believe that right now, somewhere in this world, a Scotsman is viewing this picture and getting a major stiffy.

SheepDog-One's picture

Its oddly very quiet in Apple land, even on the Yahoo!Finance fuktard boards. 

q99x2's picture

I knew I shouldn't have sold my iPhone on craigslist.

DeadFred's picture

I doubted that I would like my new iPhone much but I do. Still it's creepy to have my phone tell me in a feminine voice "I couldn't understand you". That role is reserved for my wife.

Badabing's picture

Did it cost you a kidney?

Shizzmoney's picture

"I've had it with the mother-fucking snakes on this mother-fucking plane!"

Agent P's picture

If you haven't seen this yet, do yourself a favor and watch it...friggin hilarious!

(waring for those at the office...contains a few F-bombs)

SheepDog-One's picture

LOL good one....'Send my wife directions to HELL!' Searching for....a place to hide...

disabledvet's picture

Who knew being an advocate for equities could be such a dangerous profession. least I can die knowing "ignorance is not bliss." MILLER'S CROSSING BITCHEZ!

SheepDog-One's picture

You 'advocate equities'? What does that even mean?

Global Hunter's picture

Timmy Geithner as Bernie Bernbaum the shmatte kid.  "I can't die out here in the woods like a dumb animal, look into your heart Tom...look into your heart".

jbc77's picture

I hope they miss.....that would be fun.

MeanReversion's picture

Expect a 30%-40% beat. People are misunderestimating the impact of the Iphone 4S release in China this quarter.  That will more than offset any drop-off in U.S. sales.

nick howdy's picture

Are the one's they sell in China the shape of a kidney?

boom goes the dynamite's picture

Reggie Middleton baby.


Debtless's picture

He who iPanics first...iPanics best.

ina gadda da vida's picture

This time it's different

Village Smithy's picture

OT but why has Case/Schiller become so irrelevant on CNBS these days when it use to be so important? <sarc>

Taterboy's picture

I noticed that too. C/S bad number. Oh never mind. Look Apple! Cramer then said VZ and T were signs of a strong economy. Translation: More Baby Mommas got a new phone on the way down to the welfare office.

DeadFred's picture

On today of all days you shouldn't have to ask. It's not about Case/Schiller, food and energy prices or any of that drivel. All that counts is how many iPads are there to eat.

SheepDog-One's picture

Case Schiller became a 'whatever' soon as they started showing shitty numbers.

Shizzmoney's picture

Me too...fuck Apple and their condescending "Change the World" bullshit.

I am not 100% on with Google as a corporation....but at least their OS offers the choice of the user to root the phone, get under the hood, and tinker with it.  That's how innovation happens, and that's how you improve your letting your users configure it to *their* liking, and then buying those innovations to the App Store. 

Google's OS Droid is open source...meaning, you can access the source code whenever you want, for free.  AAPL makes you pay a MONTHLY fee to access their source code.

Now, of course, that opens the window for piracy and shit....but piracy has ALWAYS ignited innovation.  Which creates competition.  And monopolies like Apple.....they HATE competition.

Really, AAPL shouldn't be valued that high.  Reggie Middleton is right; the peak has been hit, and it's never going to go past 650-700 unless they somehow hire Jesus who can turn iPads into wine distillers.


Badabing's picture

There’s an app for that!

connel20's picture

Someone has to win or take a dominate position in content distribution to people's televisions.  Whoever wins this battle will be minting money.  There is a chance AppleTV becomes the dominant player in this area and that is the only prayer it has of breaking $650 again.  The next few years will see a very interesting content provider battle taking place and with the way the government has been operating lately owning the pipes into your house doesn't seem to be that big of a competitive advantage because it can be taken away with one little signature.

fonzannoon's picture

It must be awesome to be a hedge fund and know what the results are ahead of time.

lolmao500's picture

Don't worry, drones will be monitoring the situation if it leads to pandemonium in the streets.

Is there a drone in your neighbourhood? Rise of spy planes exposed after FAA is forced to reveal 63 launch sites across U.S.

Unmanned spy planes are being launched from locations in 20 states and owners include the military and universities

There are at least 63 active drone sites around the U.S, federal authorities have been forced to reveal following a landmark Freedom of Information lawsuit.

The unmanned planes – some of which may have been designed to kill terror suspects – are being launched from locations in 20 states.

Most of the active drones are deployed from military installations, enforcement agencies and border patrol teams, according to the Federal Aviation Authority.

America, meet 1984... with drones that can kill anyone, anytime.

SheepDog-One's picture

I dont know what sheep downvoted you.