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Apple Falls
Major misses everywhere, and this for the second quarter in a row - from the Q3 earnings report:
- APPLE 3Q REV. $35.02B, EST. $37.25B
- APPLE 3Q EPS $9.32, EXP. $10.37
- APPLE 3Q NET PROFIT $8.8B
- APPLE SEES 4Q REV. ABOUT $34B, EST. $38.01B
- AAPLE 3Q GROSS MARGIN 42.8%, EST. 43.8%
- APPLE SOLD 17.0 MILLION IPADS DURING QTR, UNIT EST. 15.4M
- APPLE 3Q IPOD UNITS SOLD 6.8MLN , DOWN 10%
- APPLE SOLD 4.0 MILLION MACS DURING QTR, UNIT EST. 4.3M
- APPLE SOLD 6.8 MILLION IPODS IN QTR, UNIT EST. 6.6M
Third quarter in a row of total revenue declines:
More importantly, in Q3 revenues declined across every geography sequentially:
Is the dream over - 4 years of AAPL dividends wiped out in seconds:
However don't cry for Apple: it has $117.2 billion in cash and equvalents: a $7 billion increase in the quarter.
As a reminder, everyone is in this: Nubmer of funds owning AAPL stock
Full breakdown of the 50 most widely held HF stocks per Goldman Sachs:
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If you can remember back that far Microsoft was also the most valuable company in the world in 1999. It had a market capitalization of $618.9 billion. This was the highest market capitalization ever reached by a publicly traded company. Adjusting for inflation to 2012, Microsoft's market capitalization would be $846 billion. Apple is sitting around 561 billion. Once you start missing estimates, your growth cycle is over. Once your growth cycle is over your stock doesn't go up like it used to.
Apple makes good stuff. But what do they do after they put a better bigger screen, 4 g, a faster processor and a little better os on their phone? I don't see much of a future here. You can't keep making people buy the same thing over and over again with slight improvements. Sooner or later their product cycle will be more like Microsofts 3 years. After people realize the smart phone they have is good enough and it just requires maybe an os update.
The Windoze Dinosaurs are out in earnst, sweating the mammals they see coming on the horizon
"Windows is an antiquated technology" WSJ Sept 2010
It's hardly over, $560 is still a rediculously high stock price, it seems not so long ago they were in the 300's. Apple has a huge base and could just rest on their laurels for a decade and not innovate a damn thing, kind of like microsoft did.
CNBC: Cramer, Now is the Time to Buy Apple.
What is it about a website that loves to piss off their viewers. Fuck CNBC and Fuck Cramer too.
Never bothered with Apple products since most of them have always been overpriced and overhyped for high prols. In fact, using their endless toys gives an impression that you're not creative and not cool in general.
You can't ride "the hockey stick" forever. However, I switched our business system to MacBook Pro 15.4" w/ the faster processor option (5) back in January and am waiting on iOS5 for our cell phones. We would have bought in Jan but were told to wait until fall. Still suffering with 3 yr old Blueberry pieces of shit, which were far better than our old Nokia flip phones bought back in the Stone Age (2004-05 or so, but lasted forever).
The true test won't be until 2Q2013 when the iOS5 effect fades. Long term, I have my 9 yr old grandson with me for a few days. My daughter & hubby bought him a iPad after using my Mac for a day in March. I really feel that the iPad is a killer long term for Apple. It's like the old theory about MJ being the "entry level drug to coke". Except that IT IS.
But will I buy more AAPL even in the $500s? HELL NO. See you at $300 or so.
BTFD bitches, estimates shestimates!, 43% margins, and the underpromising and overdelivering continues, watch for a rebound in the am. I HOPE!!
It reminds me of something I saw in a RedLetterMedia movie review of the Amazing Spiderman. It was called the Policy Academy Equation. It compared budget-to-profit for the Police Academy franchise. The first movie made more money than every other movie in the franchise combined. Police Academy 7 cost 10 million, made a 100,000.
The moral of the story is that there gets to be a limit, a law of diminishing returns for how many times you can do the iPhone 1-2-3-4-5-6 game, just marginally changing a product year to year but still charging full price for people to buy it. AAPL is there right now. If they aren't, they soon will be. Nobody who spent 400 on the last 3 iPhones will be too thrilled at the prospect of doing the same for iPhone 6, 7, 8....
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