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Art Cashin Explains Why Several Hundred Thousand Jobs Are About To "Vaporize"
Two days ago we learned that when MF Global goes bankrupt, billions in cash can just "vaporize" (no, really - see here, and of course, in the passive voice. can't say something like Jon Corzine vaporized $1.2+ billion in client money now can we). Next we have Art Cashin explain why it is that the US economy is about to see several hundred thousand jobs "vaporize" as well. Perhaps "vaporize" should be the motto of the current Administration: confidence "vaporized", hope "vaporized", and "evaporation" you can believe in, as it condenses on the teleprompter...
From Art Cashin UBS Financial Services:
Disappointing Jobs - While everyone seems to debating what the non-farm payroll numb will be Friday, a few are looking toward the annual revisions in the much debated Birth/Death model.
As you probably recall, it does not refer to the birth or death of humans. The badly named model refers to the birth and death of businesses. Each January the BLS revises the number, usually vaporizing thousands of jobs.
We were going to try and calculate the likely revision, but our sharp-eyed friend over at Bloomberg, Rich Yamarone, as usual, beat us to it. Here’s what he wrote in his Notepad column recently:
The Net Birth/Death (NBD) statistic adjustment – an adjustment the BLS uses to account for job creation or loss with respect to births and deaths of businesses – is always the weakest during January. Over the last five years the NBD for January has averaged -335k. [January 2011: -339k, January 2010: -427k, January2009: -356k, January 2008: -378k, January2007: -175k.]
So, if past is prologue, we could see three or four hundred thousand jobs vanish. Nothing like a dependable indicator.
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I'm sure we'll be seeing the NBD adjustment reported on the evening news!
The economy right now is like that scene in "A Perfect Storm". Clooney and Walberg are in the bridge of the the fishing boat, they just turned around and are thinking they beat the storm, the sun comes out for a little bit, but then its right back into the storm, only this time after a little bit they get wiped out by a 200 foot tall rogue wave.
We are going back into the storm after a brief hopium filled Christmas season. Now the wave is coming.
i would not use that the word
Vaporize
...
Its mostly used for good things like Vaporizing weed and effect is very positive vs the regular smoking.
Don't abuse the good word for the bad actions by criminals.
vaporize em' all and new claims will drop to zero and the economy will recover
Bernank will justify the phu cking printing with that number.
This is slow motion capitalism...The AMRs, Kodaks, Borders, MF Global, and soon to be Sears, Barnes & Noble, RIMM etc need to disappear quicker but it would be really nice if the new banks would somehow force the companies to SIGNIFICANTLY alter their operations to create a profit, because as a taxpayer I am really getting tired of paying higher fees to banks giving me no interest so that I can front their misguided optimism and fraud...
Obama date rape drug effects are wearing off. Sphincter's everywhere will begin to feel the pain in the very near future.
Do you think the majority of women that voted for Obama (58%) are ready to blame Obama or their unemployed friend/husband?
From what I understand, the Obama administration has teamed up with Facebook and Apple and will soon unveil the Farmville Homestead Act app. Green shoots abound, all is well.
didn't Monsanto sponsore that project, they own it, you online farmers violated the patent, unless you place "We Luv GM Food" signs all around your virtual farm, there's an app for that too, we'll unplug you.
Can you say "Free Trade"? "Nafta"? "Offshoring"?
Not for nothing, but the whole vaporization of jobs started in the Slick Willie administration with his lefty Treasury Secretaries and continuation of the Reagan anti-labor policies. We've seen the textile industry move wholesale to Chindia, Mexico, and their vassal states (Bangladesh, Vietnam, Nicaragua etc.), the glass industry just plain vanish (clear as glass), the auto industry self-destructed for a time due to slothful, greedy management and greedy, slothful labor, as well as the diminution of any PBGC regulation overall (which not only effects the employees, it impacts the takeover-ability of said firms). The past 30 years of de-regulation (read no-regulation), free-trade, and crony whateveryoucallit has not only denuded the country of meaningful jobs (oh, but technology will bring jobs! Really?) and businesses and has created a culture of "Screw 'em if you can". So soon enough we'll be a country of well-to-do and neer-do-well...
G-d help us,
"G-d help us"
Ba'al has nothing to do with it.
you're right, it was the Moloch that done it!
Vaporize is literally blobbing up everywhere.
Wachovia Earnings Vaporize
Plasma Plants Vaporize Trash While Creating Energy
Reid plan: 'Vaporize' 2010 GOP opponent
MLB - Baseball: Sternberg says MLB will 'vaporize' Rays
Amazon's Kindle Fire Will 'Vaporize' Android But Leave Apple Unscathed
"Vaporise" is one of NDAA's banned words. FEMAVille Baby!
Forgot about the annual adjustment. OK, I won't sell my gold. What a farce this country is.
It will be downplayed of course.....and its a political year..so the number will be good...millions of jobs created..you will hear that forever....it doesn´t matter how fewer people are working now than before..he created millions of jobs...that math doesn´t work for me...I guess he is leaving out the jobs he lost????????
Top Twenty Star Trek Transporter Accidents
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7OFNZ6EM3A
Corzine = El Vaporador ! Aka: El Vapo !
I'm afraid my vote is going to be vaporized like my other freedoms.
You never had a vote.
Obama vaporised!
Bad news is, Mitt Rommney is exactly the same mould so there isnt any difference who u vote for.
Negative birth/death adjustments will be vaporized this month...
it's just one giant vaporizing fest isn't it?
economic independence- vaporized
private property rights-vaporized
freedom of speech- vaporized
freedom of association- vaporized
freedom of assembly- vaporized
freedom from unreasonable search and seizure- vaporized
right to trail by jury- vaporized
concept of innocent until proven guilty- vaporized
government of the people, for the people, by the people- vaporized
political independence and critical thinking - vaporized
being in any way an individual- vaporized
and of course, living free of the worry that you may someday be labeled a belligerent, snatched up by your own military and thrown into a dungeon in some country nobody's ever heard of- vaporized (with a singing statement)
But businesses ARE persons (according to the Suckpreme Court). So it's all good, right?
Q1: Define Financial Vaporization?
is the transition of money from a liquid phase into a gaseous phase by :
A- The Federal Reserve
B- JP Morgan
C- BAC
D- Goldman Sachs
E- All of the Above
Romney is worlds away from the likes of Obama.
He is an executive, he is a businessman, he has actually experience turning things around. And he believes in American exceptionalism, he will not go bowing and scraping to third world despots, he will not be taking 5 star vacations on the taxpayers dime every three months, he will not use teleprompters and think there are 57 states, he will truly try to reach across the aisle and the red/blue state divide to be pragmatic.
I hope he doesn't follow the neo-con warrior path, that's my biggest fear.. But knowing we can't afford any more wars, his businessman's view of war will likely keep that in check.
Let's give the guy a chance before we tear him down/tear our chances down.
Ron Paul is a dream. Time to wake up and deal with the world we are stuck living in as best we can.
Garbage In/Garbage Out,he is bought and paid for.He will gun for guns.
Romney's great grandfater bugged out of Utah and went to Mexico cause he hated the laws o fthe Good 'Ol USA with regards to poligamy. In fact, he only reluctantly returned to the US because of the Mexican revolution..... had that war not happened Mitt would be Mexican.
USA love it or leave it? Not the Romney Clan.
another one who thinks a bankster is the solution to problems banksters got us into. obama isn't the answer either but he is the evil we know. supporting romney is about as stupid as stupid could be.
NO ONE should go vote in November, politicians only need you for one day. Let the government know they suck and they can do it without thinking they have your blessing.
besnook:
So you are looking at the flip of the coin and calling "EDGE"?
FDR hired Joe Kennedy Sr into the SEC, 'cuz "set a thief to catch a thief."
Mitt knows the finance system inside/out. He was straight on finance things here in the Commonwealth. Unsnarled things until the devaluator took office.
So: Not-O, Not-Romney--I get it. What are you saying? In other settings, I'd say you are suffering from anal-cranial inversion syndrome.
- Ned
"he believes in American exceptionalism"......which must be why he loves off-shore bank accounts. Let's all have a big cheer for Romney's patriotism.
Based on his business "experience", he will accelerate the gutting and off-shoring of America. After all, that is his business model. That, plus getting his army of lobbyists to have the laws 'fixed' in his favor.
Hip-hip Hooray!
Rick Parry said it best....Vulture Capitalist.
Romney's not a businessman, he's an empty suit. And as far as going down the "neo-con" path, why the hell do you think Obama is just as bad as Bush? It's because the neo-cons are still running the show; it doesn't matter who we elect, the same clowns (Cheney, Rumsfeld, et al) are running the gov from K St. and Site R.
Ron Paul is the only guy who just might pull back the curtain and spill the beans on reality, but I doubt they would let him.
Doubt everything you see and hear from the MSM. It's all PR & spin.
Meanwhile, the BDI continues to vaporize. Down to 680 now.
Perhaps we could get one of those fukushima tents to capture the jobs vapor.
If we just deregulate even more then this will fix the problem.
Rumor has it that retirement packages will start being pushed at a big corporation up here.
Do any of you know the formula the BlS uses for this? Seems to me the "birth" model is way the hell off; over the past two years I've seen a whole lot more closing businesses than new ones sprouting up, including new satellites of chain stores.
Also what's the deal with the so-called "savings rate"? Last time I saw it was reflecting something like $1,500 per family member for one quarter. I don't know anyone saving that kinda dough in this Greater Depression. Seems to me many more are relying on their savings to live on.
someone looks at the job which disappeared, like a factory, and notes if the factory is somewhere else in the US, or not. pretty sure it is merely subjective. if the job isn't coming back, or let's say fungible, like having someone else take on additional duties like clean the bathrooms and then fire the janitor, then they bury it.
last i knew savings did NOT include home equity. 1500 is a lot but figure you die, they sell everything you own, there's 1500 after the garage sale? is that very much?
O don't know nothin' 'bout birthin' no jobz. - Ned
Yeah but it's something that has already happened regardless to revisions so it's not a factor. In other words it's priced in.
I'm going to vaporize some brain cells before that's illegal also.
Tyler! Link to the freaking story!
Man.... Amateurs.
Amazed nobody cares to address the questions here! I thought the B/D was adjusted quarterly now, not a full yrs revisions in Jan report. Anyone on topic here?
So what was the number for 2011?