For a few brief minutes this morning, the world celebrated Mario Draghi's 'surprise' rate cut as just the medicine that an all-time high stock market needs to go even higher. European stocks popped champagne-like (with Italy and Spain jumping 2 to 2.5% on the news), EUR collapsing, and peripheral bond spreads dropping notably. However, as he began to speak and it was clear that growth is not there, deflation is a real risk, and - most importantly - there will be no LTRO anytime soon, market reversed and did not look back. It seems, as JPM warns, an LTRO is no longer likely early next year, and the market appears to be disappointed by that. Of course a few more down 2% days (4% drop from highs) and we are sure Draghi will find a way to unleash more...
Having now tripled since August, Bitcoin's break above $300 ($324 highs) raises an important thought experiment - can a digital currency act as a global reserve currency?
There is no news as a catalyst here but bonds, FX, commodity, and stock markets are smashing around as Twitter break below its open price. JPY is rushing higher against the USD (as is EUR which has retraced Fib 61.8% of its losses from Draghi). Treasury yields are collapsing. Nasdaq and all the other US equity indices are dumping as momo names suffer the most.
Nope, no bubble here... Having traded up to $50 (over 33x Price-to-Sales), it seems hitting every analyst profit target (aside from Topeka's Anthony) within one hour of its release was enough for most... The 'profit-taking" has started and now TWTR is trading back below its break price... But do not worry - everyone can rest assured as Cramer just said "we're out of the woods here." Of course, as everyone knows, it's not where you start, it's where you finish that counts...
+75% at the open... (and is now up to $47.23)... HFT activity is extreme
With JPM having stolen the spotlight for every possible instance of fraud and market manipulation in the past year, it was easy to forget there are other prominent banks that engage in precisely the same deceptive practices as, well, everyone else. One such prominent bank is none other than everyone's old favorite bloodthirsty mollusc, Goldman Sachs, which in a filing reported that "currencies and commodities were added to a list of financial products and related activities that are subject to investigation. The filing also added options trading and technology systems and controls to the list." So, pretty much everything is being investigated.
With everyone's attention focused on TWTR's release and following this morning's insta-lift from Draghi's surprise, US equity markets are falling fast (led by Nasdaq weakness on moar momo failures) - reverting all the gains and some. While we fully expect more "self-help" declarations as the day wears on, IB has already released a statement that Pink Sheet stock market data will be unavailable until further notice... and that NASDAQ has disable direct routing for TWTR... what a mess...
* * * Update: range now $45.000-$46.0000
It just gets better and better: TRADING RANGE: TWTR (NYSE): 42.0000-46.0000
As a reminder, at $44/share, Twitter's valuation rises to $31 billion!
What inventory boosts give in the current quarter, inventory lack of boosts take from future quarters. At least that is what Goldman's Jan Hatzius just stated in his note summarizing not only the just released Q3 GDP, but his first Q4 tracking forecast, which he cut from 2.0% to 1.5%. To wit: "GDP grew more quickly than expected in Q3, but the surprise came mainly from a larger-than-expected inventory contribution and a smaller-than-expected decline in government spending. Consumer spending and business fixed investment were less strong. Initial jobless claims declined as expected with no special distortions noted by the Labor Department. We started our Q4 GDP tracking estimate at 1.5%."
Another day, another collapse in a measure of the 'peoples' confidence. Despite the animal spirits of euphoric dot-com bubble betting that is the new-normal US equity markets, it seems both rich and poor are not loving it. Bloomberg's consumer comfort index dropped to -37.9 - its lowest since October 2012 having dropped for the 6th week in a row. The last time we saw a collapse of this size, the Fed saved us all with QE3... what this time?
This is what client-facing desks are seeing at various banks across Wall Street right now. One example below:
PLEASE DO NOT ENTER ANY MARKET ORDERS FOR TWTR UNTIL AFTER THE STOCK STARTS TRADING. THESE ORDERS ARE CAUSING A LARGE NUMBER OF REJECTS WHICH MAY DELAY ENTRY OF YOUR ORDER. THANK YOU FOR YOUR CO-OPERATION
Translation: slow down damn it, there will be more than enough shares sold to satsify all demand. Why is there a scramble? Because of this: TRADING RANGE: TWTR (NYSE): 40.0000-44.0000
We noted yesterday that if the EUR got much stronger then peripheral Europe was going to lose much of its 'competitive' gains and while this is a notable surprise to many, we can't wait to hear how Draghi explains the decision given the world's insistence that Europe has turned the corner already... (which it clearly has not).
*DRAGHI SAYS EURO AREA GROWTH RISKS REMAIN `ON THE DOWNSIDE'
*DRAGHI SAYS EURO AREA INFLATION RISKS ARE `BROADLY BALANCED'
*DRAGHI: MARKET CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY NEGATIVE FOR ECONOMY
*DRAGHI SAYS UNEMPLOYMENT REMAINS HIGH
*DRAGHI: EURO AREA MAY FACE PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW INFLATION
The initial ramp-and-revert in gold (and silver) prices gave way to a $20 price collapse once Draghi began speaking - as if someone decided that Draghi's speech was somehow 'credibility-providing' for the status quo... we assume this move is reflective of Draghi's 'dis-inflationary' warnings (though th einitial move seemed sparked by the better-than-expected GDP print - so Taper on?) What the un-reflexive jerk in precious metals fails to see - it would seem - is the need for the European central bank to reflate by whatever means possible that deflationary trend...(even if the Fed slows, it will be back soon enough). Gold futures saw volume explode as he began speaking (and US GDP pronted) but price plunged and volume legged even higher as Draghi mentioned the 'd' word...
A day of fireworks that started with the stunner by Goldman's head of the ECB has just gotten its second wind following the preliminary announcement of Q3 GDP, which roared from 2.5% to 2.84%, far above expectations of a 2.0% annualized number. On the surface this was a bad number for Taper watchers, as it may mean the Fed will actually have to moderate its monthly flow precisely at the time when the ECB was forced to do "whatever it takes" in its fight with inflation, however a quick look at the internals shows that once again there is much more than meets the eye: because while the headline print was the strongest since Q3 2012, the core driver of economic growth, Personal Consumption, grew 1.5% below the expected 1.6%. Specifically, of the 2.84% number, PCE was just 1.04%, the lowest since Q2 2011!