This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Based On This Chart, Can Saudi Arabia Bail Out The US Motorist From $5 Gas?
No conclusions here, just a simple chart showing monthly Saudi Arabia crude oil production based on OPEC data, which has been rangebound in a tight 8,000 - 9750 tb/d range, superimposed with Brent prices over the past decade. The last time Brent soared to record highs back in the summer of 2008, Saudi production peaked at 9,522 tb/d (despite similar promises for spikes in crude production and exports). During last spring's spike, Saudi produced around 9,000 tb/d. In the past two months, production has been at record highs, even as oil keeps setting new highs, entirely due to liquidity, but not because speculators are evil incarnate as Nancy Pelosi will want her brainwashed fans to believe, but simply because for the most part they are Primary Dealers, and other entities attached at the hip to the Fed, who serve as Ben Bernanke's transmission mechanism of record liquidity being dumped into the system. Our advice: if anyone is hoping that Saudi Arabia can pump the 12,500 tb/d needed if Iran truly goes offline, buy a bike, as failure from Saudi to satisfy lofty demands will promptly send unleaded to new all time highs. Couple that with the Treasury debt ceiling fiasco in 5-6 months, and those Obama InTrade reelection contracts may seem a tad rich.
- 18408 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -



More nutjob tales of woe. The Saudis purposedly have curtailed their production for years to keep oil prices from being at $35 so that must mean they can't produce more oil if they want to? More scary oil pumper tales from the crypt. They could not sell all the oil they produced last time oil was manipulated up to $140. Remember all of those tankers full of oil that were kept from unloading for over half a year because no one had any need for it?
You'll be singing a different tune when the proxy war between SA and Iran heats up inside SA's oil producing regions.
The amount of oil parked in tankers never exceeded 12 hours worth of World Net exports.... about 20 million barrels or about 2 days worth of US imports at the time...
Wrong...at one time there were 67 supertankers parked with a 2 million capacity each. Don't forget all of the smaller tankers and the fact that this was surplus oil over and above daily usage rates and ongoing supply already being met. I guess those 26 miles of tankers lined up out there didn't catch your eye?
Do you have evidence that they were full?
Even with your numbers, 67 x 2 or 134 million barrels, corresponding to 3 days of Net exports, does not explain shit....
Excluding SPR, how much oil is typically in the system at any given time? I'll give you a hint, its about 2 billion barrels...
Could you explain why since 2005, global net exports of oil are down an average of ~600,000 bpd per year??
----
Did you ever think that deep pockets liked the rate of return they could get from selling forward futures with teh step contango at the time.... Moreover, given that there is overcapacity in tankers and the day rates were peanuts (and still are)....
You are making a mountain out of a molehill...
Ya Ok ....that's why the Saudis severely reduced their oil production for almost THREE YEARS? You are funny.....tell me another joke. Those big cats were buying that surplus oil at dirt cheap prices because why? There was no demand for that oil until the oversupply got rectified. I bet if gasoline drops to $2.00 a gallon you will fill a few extra 5 gallon gas cans too knowing sooner or later oil prices would be manipulated back up. Of course your purchase won't really impact supply like it did when the big players played the same game in a big way.
Check your timeline...
Also focus on OPEC production....
http://mazamascience.com/OilExport/output_en/Exports_BP_2011_oil_bbl_MZM_OPEC10_MZM_NONE_auto_M.pdf
Now compare the drop in OPEC production with the Saudi production drop and look up the definition of "Swing Producer"....
And yes, the recession did decrease demand for a while...but the bitch is back...
I always buy PBT on the dips... I recommend that you do as well...
Dude - We use 18 million barrels of oil PER DAY!!
Below Zero said:
Utter bullshit, bubba. From late 2005 through late 2007, as the price of crude climbed from sixty dollars per barrel to eighty dollars per barrel, Saudi Arabia was not able to maintain production levels, which would have allowed them to exploit this 33 percent rise in price. In fact, during this time period, their production fell by nearly a million barrels per day.
source: http://gregor.us/opec/saudia-arabia-and-russia/
In fact, if it hadn't been for increased production by Russia, we'd have been really fucked, since other non-OPEC production was falling.
source: http://gregor.us/non-opec/portrait-of-price-vs-non-opec-supply/
You can keep drinking the evil-oil-company-conspiracy Kool-Aid if you like, but you can't run your car on it.
Awesome!
I would recommend that you trademark this puppy....
You linked to Gregor twice.... he might be one of the sharpest guys blogging on the energy situation out there...
On my must read list...
You are purposely using the wrong timeframe but that's OK cause that's what promoters do to confuse the rubes. Lets try after 2007 clown.
What is always forgotten is that even though the Saudi Oil Production chart appears to be at a relative high, the amount of oil actually exported is NOT at a high, because domestic consumption increases every month. If the US subsidized gasoline to 50 cents a gallon at the pump, US domestic consumption would go through the roof also.
Hello Export Land Model!
Check out Indonesia and the UK here
http://mazamascience.com/OilExport/
And if you are really interested check out Egypt for a little perspective....
Indonesia has withdrawn from OPEC because, since becoming a net oil importing nation, they are no longer a petroleum exporting country.
Yes, the larger concern is Peak Oil EXPORTS. That is, it's a concern for big oil importers.
There's lies, damn lies, and chart manipulation.
The left scale starts at 7000 and goes to 10,000. The right one goes from zero up to $160.
Nevermind that the change in production trails the price, meaning the Saudis are simply not willing to sell as much when the price falls (saturated market), and are prefectly willing to raise production as prices rise.
Depending on them to "save" us is stupid. The price is rising because of money printing, and nothing else. Price brent in gold and you will see a different, more interesting story.
Was the first part of your comment serious or sarcastic?
While the price is rising due to money printing, the price is also rising because the population growth of the Earth is going parabolic.
In 1950 the world population was approx. 2,555,982,611; today (just 52 years later) is now over 7,000,000,000. So roughly about 4.5 billion new oil consumers. To put that in perspective China has a population of about 1.33 billion, just 1 billion less of the entire world population 52 years ago.
Think we've made advances in the EFFICIENCY of using this oil?
1923 Model-T Ford still humming along, 40 Miles per Gallonhttp://articles.nydailynews.com/2009-07-27/news/17928734_1_henry-ford-mo...
Ah, yes, I'd never have thought of that.
Price being influenced by no bid non consumers. Hah, that is great news.
Next time, in the auction house, instead of jauging the wealth of the few participants, I'll just have to count the number of people in the room.
Yea, next time you're at an auction house with 7 fuck billion people who need what is being auctioned let me fuckin' know dip shit.
Don't draw some ignorant fucking red herring argument you stupid twit.
bring on the swine flu. if i'm one to go - so be it.
problems solved.
Don't be silly. Kill 90% of the global population and the big US banks are still insolvent.
This isn't (currently) a problem of resource allocation. It's a problem of policy.
There's still "enough" food/air/water/oil to maintain the living standards of 6,999,900,000 of the folks on the planet.
But the hundred thousand who are currently in trouble dictate what the solution-space must look like, and that solution-space doesn't appear to intersect with any foreseeable reality.
Drilling deeper in Saudi Arabia...
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9034
----
There is a gas station on Rte 9A here that went tits up in the summer of '08.... the prices are still posted..
$4.69 for regular...
$4.89 for diesel....
I figure it will one day become a place for the nostalgic types to hang out...
Some gas stations long gone now. The memories remain along with the knowledge of a totally soaked ground way down past the water table.
Christ we used to stand in pools of leaded gas sometimes while rushing to fuel the barge.
And there are places to get Av gas or high cetane fuel.
The pictures that have been surpressed by the Media. The Oil will be seized by Conquer. The Global Oligarch Elite will see to that.
Graphic Photos of Afghan Civilians Killed by U.S. Soldier on March 11, 2012
http://publicintelligence.net/graphic-photos-of-afghan-civilians-march-2012/
Treasury debt ceiling fiasco? -- Hell no. Any "debt ceiling" will simply be raised. Problem solved.
GM claims natural gas fueled Silverado pick-up trucks will be available next year. We'll see.
They will end up in the same place that the Volt did.
The problem with electrics is that the only people that can afford them, don't give a fuck about the price of gas....
Do a simple discounting assuming 12,000 miles a year and 25 mpg, play with the price of gas to see when it makes sense...
What's the battery replacement cost again and the resale value?
Depends on whether they wear out or explode...
And along these lines, it also depends whether the lead is returned in its original package or whether they have to remove it from your ass.
The ironic thing is that when gas gets too expensive or scarce, the effective commute radius for a ICE car will be about the same as the current purely electric range for the volt.....Assuming of course nominal fuel eff. and disposable income...
i've posted before and i guess i will have to until doomsday. the electric car is a hoax. the electricity is still produced by burning fossil fuels. the concept was 70's when the 'environment' and pollution was a consideration - and rather than each of millions of cars spewing pollution as it flew by - the electric car could have all the fossil fuels burnt in one place, and the pollution better controlled. transmittion of the electric from the plant also loses power.
is the electric plant that much more efficient at generating and then distributing the power than burning in a combustible auto engine? even disregarding the batteries? please correct me.
i'm surprised at the people on this post who are normally astute. electric cars are for ...... 'muppets'. feel nice and green about yourself now?
You should look up the definition of hoax and get back to us...
Could have bought either, but a Volt was more cool and useful for the same price.
Where do you fill the damn thing up. I guess Lowes has 25 lbs tanks in the blue cage if the truck comes with an auxillary fuel port it might work. LOL
What came first the station or the truck?
http://preview.tinyurl.com/7ufslhs
You are going to need a one hell of a puncture proof tank. otherwise it's a bomb. Literally.
And none of that namby pamby 300 PSI piping either.
Why all the gloom and doom about Natural Gas as a fuel? It's well proven and well utilized in the US already.
http://www.lngvehiclefuel.com/why.html
Because products are always built by the lowest bidder.
If nothing else was around except for Nat gas even for 18 wheelers and trains and all's well.. sure I will join in. But I usually sit back and wait to see what happens to the early adopters.
OK so raise margin requirements on oil contracts and put contract limits on all but the end users of oil. Bet the price would fall $25 over night. It keeps working on gold and silver. Yes price can be manipulated down. That is until Iran and saudia are off line then its katie bar the door!!!
And I bet you would be wrong....
My call is that we'll see a repeat of last year, where oil producers step up and take advantage of the higher prices, and the resulting extra supply will drop the price of crude. A month later, gas prices in the US will slowly come down. Perhaps gas will rise another 5-10% between now and Memorial Day.
So 'print' more.
Higher price meaning no roof oil extraction, that is the way to go.
AnAnonymous said:
Print more? Now that indeed is the nature of US citizenism.
Long Dr. Scholls
$5 dollar gas? Already at 3.75-4.50 now...shit might go to $6 by next summer!
Barry and the boyz control gas price$ more than $audi$. EPA mandates boutique fuel blends which choke supply. Onerous EPA regs cripple refiners. And value of US$, as oil is priced in dollars. All within Barry's sphere of influence.
It works the other way too, that is, price suppression due to subsidies in the form of taxpayer money into the pockets of the "defense" contractors.
But, yeah, if we could just burn the filthiest fuels and dump all kinds of toxins in our environment things would be MUCH cheaper!
BTW - Obama is a puppet, he has ZERO influence. But, party pussies believe the most insane things... Drill baby drill!
Ok, DR.E. I'll say it again: I can't wait til gas hits $10. and up in the U.S.. Maybe then the people will finally demand more public transportation systems and alternatives to gas guzzlers. Bring it.
Dumbfuck, they'll be too busy killing and eating each other to email congress by the time it hits 6.50 a gallon, if the electricity is even still on.
Why don't you get "bring it" inked across your forehead? At the same time, get some tits stenciled on your shoulder blades, that'll be helpful for you to get meals after it gets... brought.
Yes more subsidized communist transportation systems.. That's what we need .
$10 gas in the USSA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hbLgszfXTAY
Not bad,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xaPA8fGeRUc
The Saudis cannot increase output. They do not have the capacity. Their big oil fields are tired. I am suprised that some of the ZeroHedge people do not realize that higher oil prices are also due to an imploding dollar.
Imploding relative to what? Gold? Oil?
The oil market does not care about the price of oil in gold...
interesting. My read is that initially pre-2008 the production drop (along with money printing) pushed prices up for Brent. Then a sharp down-turn in Brent from the collapse forced production down because there's no way they'll drain the wells for 35 to 70/barrel. Now are we going to see a repeat of pre-2008 with supply pushing down & prices rising until the next snapping point where no economy can withstand it?
I'm not gonna re-nig on the Saudis yet.
I'd not be surprised if Saudi Arabia had some spare capacity but do not want to put it online in order to conserve.
The very idea that a monoactivity country should try to exhaust its only resources in order to pile up stocks of freshly 'printed' paper of all sorts is somehow bizarro and belong to US citizenism.
Others might want to conserve, cap their living standard and last longer but hey, US citizenism is big race to depletion of resources, so forget about conservation.
That spere capacity is from a region where the oil is just about un usable.
The natural contanimant have proved very expensive and difficult to seperate
and have required multiple passes through the refining process to remove.
The Kingdom counts that oil as a reserve.
The surplus is a myth.
"Others might want to conserve, cap their living standard and last longer but hey, US citizenism is big race to depletion of resources, so forget about conservation."
Sigh, when will you get it through your head that this issue isn't something inherent with people in the US. It's a HUMAN thing, and you better believe that if others could do this that they would. Just happens that there's always some group at the top of the heap; and at this moment in history it's a group that's under the banner of U.S.A..
That which cannot continue, won't. Bad systems FAIL.
this article is from 19 Feb 2012.
The draw-down was sharper for the actual amount exported, declining by 440,000 bpd, or 5.6 percent, to come in at 7.364 million bpd, the data also showed.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46445698
And you have this:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-18/saudi-oil-output-in-january-was-near-31-year-high-data-show-1-.html
As I said above:
We Have No Idea What Global Oil Production Is.
This is why JODI was created, and then not funded enough to audit anything.
All oil production quotes are compilations of government provided data. They sum what they're told by others.
No one is auditing oil production. Frankly, they don't dare.
My take :
conventional oil : 75 M BPD
Condensate/NGL : 5 M BPD incl. Bakken type heavy oil.
Bio fuel liquids : 5 M BPD
Total Liquid prod : 85 M BPD. We are on this plateau and it should fall, as both W Siberia and ME are depleting.
NB: Condensate and Biofuel BTU/Barrel is lower than for <35 API oil. dens : 0.85.
I've been told this is the current plateau of liquid production, which is under threat from depletion rates of oil of around 4%/an, on throughput basis.
Please comment if incorrect.
Bakken is light sweetish... good oil...
NGL is about 8.5 mmbpd
Bio is about 2 mmbpd...
Here is the chart you are after
http://www.theoildrum.com/files/Screen%20shot%202012-02-13%20at%209.03.40%20AM.png
Yea the Bakken. Yeehaw.
Pipe that shit right down heah, we have burning to do.
Today's $4 / gal gas is $2.40 / gal in 2007 dollars.
So it hasn't gone up much in real terms.
The dollar is losing value. That's the real problem.
Loosing value relative to oil? Is that not a tautology?
What exactly is it loosing value against?
Think very carefully about what I am getting at...
The problem is that oil is becoming less affordable. All other attempts to compare to this or that really is meaningless, just ask all those unemployed people who are upside-down on their cars and houses.
Israel has O'Bama over a barrel - literally, either he takes out Iran facilities for them or they talk up an attack on Iran to drive oil prices up and throw US into recession and get a tool like Mutt into the WH to do their bidding.
Funny thing is that SA views Iran as a wildcard and wouldn't mind seeing them get taken out too. Of course they can't publicly side with Israel and I don't think they dislike O'Bama the way Bibi does but if $5/bbl US gas gets Iran woldcard taken out they're probably comfortable with that.
Came across this elsewhere, a damn fine rant (might offend a few of our conservative friends here...)
At 50 dollar a gallon, We probably will still buy it.
If I still have a credit card worth a damn then.
I know I don't want to be seen pumping that shit, might have to use the rounds in those magazines and the truck gun.
Does this type of onion skin thin reasoning butter your bread flak? I will be sure to skip your posts in the future, as there was no point if not to poison the discussion.
"change the basis of the conversation" This really did a fine job of reworking the "basis"
Well... I was amused by this rant from the other side of the Hedge...
If you meant amused by the mud puddle deep analysis and reliance on smear, strawmen and charicatures sure yeah it was amusing in that way.. If it was Bill Maher, the cunt, of course one of his best in depth pieces. Made the author look like an idiot..
Elitist and a snob. It always amazes me that the sanctimonious uberlibs never want to take resopnsibility for their viciousness, narrowmindedness, and hateful policies. It has been their great leaders, slave-owners Jefferson and Jackson (who they still praise yearly), “Progressive” black-haters like the Democrat controlled Supreme Court that enshrined “separate-but-equal” in Plessy vs Ferguson, the extreme head-breaker fascist and racist Woodrow Wilson who re-segregated the military, and fascist, big government FDR who have largely gotten us into the fix we are in. Throw in a couple of anti-constitutionalist Republicans such as Nixon and the Bushes, a couple of depraved, venal marxists like Clinton and Barry Sotero, and voila. That's my rant.
the odds are 15 in 19 that they won't help.
I see what you did there.
+1
the world is releasing 83 MILLION barrels of oil a day... and we are not out yet, weve only been using the resource 100 years... this planet is real big... we are not about to run out of oil... my bet is on 500 years or about there befor it becomes a real issue or else... we would actually do something about our energy consumption
.
we are 20-25% into energy as we know it
.
the wars are not about changing the way we fuel our lives... its about controlling it
.
www.cahrecords.com
Can the USA bail out Saudi Arabia from their big water problem? Saudis will posses no water by 2016. Sounds like a stupid question to me. The middle east, China, and India are all dead men. Oil doesn't do much good if you are starving to death.
Forget it. Our western states managed to make the mighty rivers a trickle down economics these last 30 years.
And 100 year old rusted and rotted water mains break every where every day.
I say thank you Grandpa for building good mains for 100 years and hope to see another 100 after it's replaced.
England has been around a thousand years. And we upstarts have only been around a quarter of that time and are getting it done.
"Saudis will posses no water by 2016."
They'll shift their oil over to providing power for their desalination plants. No, I'm not endorsing this, but given the possible upheavals that running out of water would mean I think that this would be the likely reaction by the Royal Family (either way they're doomed).
Here is some fun for ya'll.
Government Explained.
testing