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CME Goes To Collateral DefCon 1: Makes Maintenance Margin Equal To Initial For... Everything!?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Update: Based on unofficial statements by the CME, it appears that the exchange has gone the way of inviting more risk by lowering Initial to meet existing Maintenance margin across the board. We will likely only know for certain on Monday. We suppose the proposed explanation will be to minimize margin exposure for onboarded MF positions. Of course, that this is very much counterintuitive at a time when risk is spiking and vol readings per SPAN are soaring, and instead is inviting even more risk, is apparently irrelevant to the exchange.

The most important news announcement of the day was not anything to came out of Cannes  (as nothing did), nor from Greece (the merry go round farce there continues unabated). No, it was a brief paragraph distributed by the CME long after everyone had gone home, and was already on their 3rd drink. It is critical, because not only is this announcement a direct consequence of what happened with MF Global several days ago, but because also it confirms one of our biggest concerns: systemic liquidity is non-existanet. We confirmed interbank liquidity in Europe was at an all time low earlier today, and can only assume the same is true for US banks. But what is very disturbing is that this is just as true at the exchange level, where it appears the aftermath of the MF collapse is just now being felt. What exactly was the announcement. Unless we are completely reading it incorrectly, it is nothing short of a margin call for tens if not hundreds of billions worth of product. Because as of close of business on November 4, today, the CME just made the maintenance margin, traditionally about 26% lower than the initial margin for specs, equal. For everything. Which means that by close of business Monday, millions of options and futures holders will be forced to deposit billions in additional capital to the CME just so they are not found to be margin deficient, and thus receive a margin call. Naturally, since it is very unlikely that this incremental amount of liquidity can be easily procured in one business day, we anticipate the issuance of hundreds of thousands of margin calls Monday, followed by forced liquidations of margin accounts across America... and the world. Just like when Lehman blew up, it took 5 days for Money Markets to break. Is this unprecedented elimination in the distinction between initial and maintenance margin the post-MF equivalent of the first domino to fall this time around?

From the CME (source):

And for those asking, here is a complete breakdown of all CME products and associated margins:

 

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Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:48 | 1847361 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Corzine's gotta be a ZHer-hey Corzine, what's up???

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:54 | 1847389 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

Remember, remember, the fifth of November...some people have been talking shit about Guy Fawkes tomorrow. Others have said we all need to take money out of the bank...they're scared...all of them

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:14 | 1847489 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

If Corzine had been reading ZH he never would've bought those PIIGS bonds.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:06 | 1847452 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Then what wiil be the change effective at the close of business on Friday, November 4, 2011?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:35 | 1847310 Clockwork Orange
Clockwork Orange's picture

Kerplunk.  Kerplooey.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:36 | 1847316 Conax
Conax's picture

hey man,

the future's uncertain and the end is always near.. let it roll baby roll

If I knew what all this really meant, I'd pee my pants.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 23:54 | 1847750 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

If it meant that much the "tylers" would be doing much more editorializing, their not..

Sat, 11/05/2011 - 00:00 | 1847770 Waffen
Waffen's picture

Indeed Decfcon 1 seems underplayed, but the results of such an action by the CME seem tremendous, could it be just a lack of understanding the reality of the sitution is what is calling for the temperance?

Sat, 11/05/2011 - 09:53 | 1848294 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

I love me some Tylers and I do not pretend to be in their universe when it comes to financial knowledge but I do reserve the right to get a bit peeved when this is said.

"Anywhere between double and triple digits notional. In the trillions that is.

All of it levered between 20 and 50 times."

Then they stop...   WTF, I realize I am not here for financial advice but how about a bit more detail so I can make a move here or there, buy an extra loave of bread perhaps..

Sat, 11/05/2011 - 11:47 | 1848516 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

loave?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:37 | 1847320 holdbuysell
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The Initial/Maintenance ratio is going from 'various' to 1.0 for all products.

What isn't clear is which value, Initial or Maintenance, is moved to create the 1.0 ratio.

Is it the Maintenance level moving up to the Initial level or is it the Initial level moving down to the Maintenance level.

In a liquidity-starved market, I can guess what's the most likely...thoughts?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:45 | 1847343 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

Optimism is good. Let's hope it's down, to account for the lack of present liquidity and lure out speculators.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:46 | 1847348 Larry Darrell
Larry Darrell's picture

Very astute.

Since it's not specified, they have leeway.

On commodities, margins can raise.  On pure paper instruments, they can drop.

It's good to be king.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:10 | 1847470 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

Maybe, but the following justification would lose all its meaning if they are decreasing the Initial margin. I don't see them doing it (I know, I know, I should never underestimate their stupidity, but still):

 

"As per the normal review of market volatility to ensure adequate collateral coverage, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc., Clearing House Risk Management staff approved the performance bond requirements for the following products listed below."

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:18 | 1847501 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

That parts is standard legal (meaningless) jargon. They use it for cuts too.

I can't imagine they would be so stupid to call trillions in margin. More likely a cut, which would cause a nice ramp on monday, as per the usual agenda.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:22 | 1847517 Waffen
Waffen's picture

How is it that no one here knows what the fuck the letter really means?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:28 | 1847535 Larry Darrell
Larry Darrell's picture

Because it is written open to interpretation like all of their other jingoistic double speak.

If you're in the club, your secret decoder ring will let you read the unseen messages.

The rest of us only have the options to place a bet (or leave the casino, but they don't really want that).

 

Sat, 11/05/2011 - 12:51 | 1848668 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Very good comment and great avatar, Cheers.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:40 | 1847563 Randall Cabot
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Because of the nomenclature.

Sat, 11/05/2011 - 00:10 | 1847789 Bolweevil
Bolweevil's picture

Exactly. What?

Sat, 11/05/2011 - 03:51 | 1848049 greensnacks
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Is this about improving liquidy or snuffing out speculators? What happens if the majority of margin calls come from short positions?  EURUSD?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:33 | 1847545 WhatCouldGoWrong
WhatCouldGoWrong's picture

HBS,

I can only assume that maintenance is going to be increased to meet initial. I think the key phrase they used is, "ensure adequate collateral coverage". That strikes me as "mo money" for margin. My question is, will this also make intraday and overnight initial/maintenance margins the same? If intraday margin goes up to match overnight margin, you'll see a bloodbath in liquidity.

Sat, 11/05/2011 - 07:57 | 1848185 css1971
css1971's picture

It's the only thing which makes sense. Reducing the initial margin would have a relatively small effect. Increasing the maintenance margin would blow up the commodities market. What is more likely? A little critical thinking goes a long way....

 

I added some stops just in case I'm insufficiently paranoid.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:38 | 1847323 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

I just looked.  My gold and silver are happy as larks and don't give a rat's arse what the CME does.

I'll just continue sitting this out on my mountain.

Nice of them to give Benny and the boys the weekend to get their stories straight.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:38 | 1847324 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

non-exist-a-net.           ...?

new word.?

had to mention it.

Important part of the sentence,and story.

Great work though.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:28 | 1847533 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

A non-exist-a-net is for JPM to catch all their non-exist-a-silver....

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:42 | 1847336 fonzanoon
fonzanoon's picture

If after reading this if the dow is up 92 points on Monday I will be more confused that I already am. I am working under the assumption that if there is any truth to this it will somehow be taken care of over the weekend.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:44 | 1847338 TN Jed
TN Jed's picture

Maybe this answers why Gainesville Coins just price matched Tulving with 2.49 ASEs and .59 NTR bars.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:51 | 1847376 Carlyle Groupie
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Gainesville. Back woods mother fookers with their fake gold plated swamp buggies.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:45 | 1847346 SpeakerFTD
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Looks like it might be a busy weekend at 33 Liberty.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:46 | 1847349 LouisHill
LouisHill's picture

You know there might just be another explaination.  Suppose the banks are calling CME's broker loans becasue they don't want CME to be the test case for whether bi-lateral netting works of not.  I am reminded of old stories about bear raids and how that was pulled off.  So there may be another side to this story not just the customer side.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:48 | 1847358 zebrasquid
zebrasquid's picture

versus non-exist-a-gross?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:48 | 1847365 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

Queue the opening credits to Apocalypse Now.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:15 | 1847492 tickhound
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Let's hope Charlie's learned how to surf.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:48 | 1847366 HyperLazy
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Hodedo! Hodedo!

 

Um, the first column shows "Various" while the second column displays "1.0". Doesn't this entail that already existing products will retain their former margin requirement while newly initiated products require full margin? If so, I will shrug my shoulders and continue goofing off elsewhere. If indeed it means that all positions, previous and future, require full backing - then I will emanate a dignified golf clap and continue goofing off elsewhere.

Regards,

et cetera

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:08 | 1847458 The4thStooge
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That's gotta be it. There's no way they just decided to drop a nuke on the markets.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:49 | 1847368 foofoojin
foofoojin's picture

So they dropped the intial margin requirment to match that of the maintenece margin requirment. how is this bad news?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:50 | 1847373 SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

Good thing I have (margin)caller ID.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:49 | 1847375 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

ah, what about gold and silver?  oh my....................

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:54 | 1847392 Nate H
Nate H's picture

this is real deal I think.

But the market moves monday tuesday might be up for silver (prob down for gold). Basically this isnt bearish or bullish for any commodity at the Merc per se - but will tend to equilibriate those that are skewed long or short, especially in weak hands.  I would bet stocks go up quite a bit (as people are net short ES on spec.  What else are people tilted on? Im sure people here have the data. I know alot of ZH readers are long physical silver - wouldnt surprise me tho if net speculators are short silver given how poorly its traded of late.  In any case, a week from now things will be where they should be - but I agree this will cause some big moves Monday. Surprised they didnt give it a 1 week notice or 1 month or such...

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:07 | 1847454 jdelano
jdelano's picture

Given that bullish bets on the broader equity markets far outweigh the bearish, I'd say... Well I'd say you're deep in denial....

Sat, 11/05/2011 - 00:04 | 1847777 Nate H
Nate H's picture

My guess of 3 was predicated on this not being related to anything systemic to MF etc. If its just the margins going up themselves we will see some volatility (going up on things that have been beat down and going down on things that have been going up), but few big players are THAT leveraged that they would be taken out on such a small increase.

 

But.....if its related to CME itself OR general liquidity issues then it could be higher than a 7.

 

Im not in denial. I am short equities -lots of my friends are too. You are right that bullish positions far outweigh bearish - but not the 'bets' -the bets are shorter term in nature - most of the bullish positions are natural longs -ones whose fiduciary requires them to be long stock - so a margin call wouldnt effect that demographic one iota..

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:07 | 1847456 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Basically this isnt bearish or bullish for any commodity

It's bearish for everything that is...ummm......up.  And I would sugesst to you that silver acted very heavy all day today...and now I think we know why.

 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:57 | 1847404 Vagabond
Vagabond's picture

Is silver somewhat safer than others because of all the margin fuckery this past year?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:21 | 1847511 SpeakerFTD
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No.  If the actual CME rules are as TD has interpreted them, the only commodity that might act bullish in this kind of scenario is NG, as it has been such a long, quiet, low vol bear market.  

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 23:16 | 1847657 I did it by Occident
I did it by Occident's picture

ah, great, just in time for winter heating season.  :(

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:24 | 1847521 foofoojin
foofoojin's picture

I want to say yes as a lot of the week hands are already gone. but this last two weeks f movement up could have enough week hands to create some problems. so all bets are off.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:03 | 1847436 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Anglo American taking control of De Beers:
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000055512
no, it's not "taking control of Da Bears" ... nor does it have anything to do "it's Friday and it's time go after Da Beers."

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:52 | 1847382 El Gordo
El Gordo's picture

Pity the poor souls who are still on happy hour and haven't hear about this yet.  Go long on toilet paper, dry cleaners, and maybe even new slacks.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:09 | 1847463 upWising
upWising's picture

Long on Fruit of the Loom TightyWhiteys.

Stock up on the 6-packs..

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:52 | 1847384 navy62802
navy62802's picture

This is going to be entertaining.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:54 | 1847387 RobotTrader
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That means all the "Double Whammy" and "Triple Whammy" ETF's will probably self-destruct.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:55 | 1847393 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

"this is the end, beautiful friend, the end"

FAZ going down would be a true Greek tragedy.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:09 | 1847462 disabledvet
Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:55 | 1847394 Ecoman11
Ecoman11's picture

Someone please explain the mechanics of this and if it means the markets go up or down come Monday.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:09 | 1847464 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Sure...but just where do you see a market?  There is no market...so guessing how one would react to this news would be theoretical.  

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:31 | 1847518 Rynak
Rynak's picture

Here is the quick crashcourse:

Traders (and banks, but they indirectly have infinite cash anyways) do not pay full price, when trading commodities via the CME. I.e., if something has a spot-price of lets say 50$, the do not pay 50$. Instead, they only need to pay a certain percentage, with the rest of the price basically being bought on credit. This is called the margin. Via a margin account, you can for example buy double the amount of commodities you normally can afford, by partially buying on credit. It basically makes an exchange not just an exchange, but simultaneusly a bank.

Sounds all well and nice, but you see, the exchange can ANYTIME change the margin. So contrary to a bank loan, where the amount lended, and the interest, stays static once you made the contract, exchanges can modify the contract anytime however they wish. So, if the margin for example were 50%, and thus you buy double the amount of commodities you can afford - the exchange can then suddely change the rules, and say that you actually have to pay 75% of the spot price, just to KEEP your goods. You then have to quickly add enough cash to your exchange-account, to cover the higher cost... if you do not do so, your own commodities get auto-sold by the exchange, without you having to do anything.... your commodities get auto-sold, until your "account" is in balance again.

In short, via margin an exchange can arbitrarily change the REAL cost of ownership regarding a commodity. They can arbitrarily anytime say "oh wait, now this suddely costs Y instead of X. Hope your account has enough surplus, because else we will just sell your own commodities until your account is in balance again".

TL/DR?: Commodity selloff will happen. Not by the holders of commodities - but instead the exchanges will force-sell commodities of traders, against the traders consent.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 23:23 | 1847673 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Think of bank mortgages in the 1920s-30s.

Homeowners and farmers that didn't have the deed were told by the banks to pay up, or move out.

POOF!  Banks that survived bought banks that didn't and owned a whole lot of shit people couldn't pay for on the spot....

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 23:52 | 1847744 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

So how much will the margin go up on the futures products according to the notice? Does 1 mean 100% of spot?

Sat, 11/05/2011 - 02:00 | 1847962 Albertarocks
Albertarocks's picture

Did you happen to have a part in Idiocracy?  I mean, a lot of money were lended.  Right?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 23:22 | 1847671 nothing can go wrogn
nothing can go wrogn's picture

Relax. The market goes up, the market goes down. But, over the long haul, the market goes up.

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x71zxa_straight-talk-stock-market_fun

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:58 | 1847395 Faceman78
Faceman78's picture

Why do so many love bad news?

We all pay for it in the end, unless you are sitting on a pile.... which I very much doubt most are.

Come on... hope and look for the best... not the worst.

We are all unequivocally in this shit together.

So pull together.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:01 | 1847425 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

since this is your first post, we'll be forgiving

and, welcome!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:12 | 1847476 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

We want the ponzi to end. <sarc off>

So we can start a new one. <sarc on>

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:17 | 1847495 tickhound
tickhound's picture

uh boy.  LOL!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:24 | 1847523 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Bad news can be very educational.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:34 | 1847549 mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

Yes.  Welcome grasshopper.  Maybe I can sort of explain.  Forgive me, fellows and gals, if I speak out of school for you.

By and large, ZHrs don't love bad news.  They simply want justice and truth to prevail.  And that hasn't been happening for a long, long time.  Although it's accelerating now at breakneck pace, this Ponzi Scheme of Epic Proportion has been building for years.  And some of us have awakened to find the water in the pot extremely hot!  If this pot doesn't get knocked off the skillet, and soon, everyone will be boiled alive.  The Powers That Be have noticed some of us coming to our senses, and are now trying to move as many resources from out of the hands of the middle class and into their vaults as quickly as possible.  Thus the acceleration of events and the breaking of every rule and market on earth.  There is no such thing as a fundamental any more.

The system has to collapse under it's own corrupt weight BEFORE all that wealth is transferred for there to be ANY chance of a middle class surviving and someday flourishing.  And that is why bad news is good news.  "Bad news" means the system is unraveling, collapsing, imploding under the weight of lies, corruption, greed and deceit.  The pot is scootching nearer the edge of the skillet, and maybe, hopefully, mercifully, the whole thing will spill out onto the floor before we are all consumed by the heat.

ZH is great, for one, because here you wont find a bunch of people PLOTTING to wreak mass destruction in an egocentric, maniacal way,  (well, there IS High Plains Drifter...  I'm just kidding...)  You will find people of all disciplines pining for a time when capitalism can actually be tried for maybe the first time in human history.  But it will NEVER survive in the riptide of the current oligarchy.  It simply can't be allowed.  Too many people would enjoy too much success.

Welcome, and happy reading.  And posting.

 

Tomato

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:48 | 1847583 Arius
Arius's picture

you truth lover you ... i bet you are betting some money on that "truth" .... truth and justice is relative isnt it? ...depending from your point of view .... i mean, if you claim you are doing God's work on earth... hey, who am I to challenge it right ?

:-) risk on/off

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 23:02 | 1847619 mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

I humbly confess that I am not picking up what you're putting down...

Sat, 11/05/2011 - 11:50 | 1848519 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Well done Sir...

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:50 | 1847590 Faceman78
Faceman78's picture

Surely, the bad news is not good news, if you follow what you preach.

You say there is a transfer of wealth, an eradiction of middle class assets so to speak.... so how does bad news like tonight become good news if all that is taking place is the uber rich collaborating to pilfer the middle classes?

This unravelling is working bang on correctly for "them"... not us.

imo of course

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 23:01 | 1847612 mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

I am grossely ignorant of the ramifications of this most recent event.  I was speaking generally.  Damn it, Jim, I'm a Mathematics teacher/ Skinnerian Behaviorist, not a trader!!!

However, the silver lining may possibly be that as events unfold, for better or worse, people are being jarred awake.  It's a race.  Can enough of us wake up in time to kill the ponzi before we're all dead.

Exciting times, my friend.  At least one of your "up" arrows is from me.

Sat, 11/05/2011 - 01:47 | 1847942 KrazyMax
KrazyMax's picture

I appreciate your (and other's) atitude toward newbies... I've been lurking for quite a while and have learned a lot from just reading the comments.

Thanks again.

Sat, 11/05/2011 - 07:10 | 1848152 valley chick
valley chick's picture

thanks tomato !

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:57 | 1847402 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

yesterday, i was thinking about this and i read about MF having all the accounts a'la sticky wicket, maybe hafta liquidate some accounts and/or positions,  and i had this thought:  what if the crimex raises margin requirements tomorrow?

my next thought was how fuking crazy that first thought was...

now this:  DEFCON 1.  wtf? 

now i am wondering: did gary gensler put them up to this b/c he read zeroHedge yesterday, and all those nice things we said about him being the archetypal styoooopid fukhead special intersest regulator? 

 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:58 | 1847411 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

And in other news, Gary Gensler has just recused himself from the MF Global investigation.

This is getting fun.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:08 | 1847451 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

oh, no!

not the "appearance" of a conflict of interest w/ the banksters in the markets he regulates?

really?  who could have ever imagined? 

as gen. patton might have said:  what the hell is going on here, BiCheZ?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:11 | 1847471 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

When will CNBC recuse itself?

Sat, 11/05/2011 - 00:49 | 1847859 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

When there are no markets left to pump.

 

PS. The hounds video was awesome!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:30 | 1847544 max2205
max2205's picture

Smells like a try at moving dumb and weak positions into the big boys hands. Otherwise why blow up the market when Ben could just slip the CME some FedBenBucks?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 23:29 | 1847694 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Chicago sometimes tries to play like they can be a little feisty vs. New York/London.  Maybe CME is just pissed and wants to flush the 'MF wannabe' cock-a-roaches via this wee bit of forced deleveraging.  Of course the small fry will get caught in the turbine inflow and pureed....incidental or even net positive.

I really doubt that CME is in some wierd desperation position and is forced into this move.  More like a kick 'em while they're down thing...typical Chicago.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 23:37 | 1847717 anonnn
anonnn's picture

ZH impinges!

Sat, 11/05/2011 - 08:58 | 1848232 ViewfromUnderth...
ViewfromUndertheBridge's picture

after I commented "Margin hike alert..." on the 'gold surge on Euro Stupidity' t'other day I sent more collateral to my account and reduced longs by 40%...so, if more longs than shorts are liquidated Sun/Mon I hope my account survives to scoop up some discounted digital spot gold & silver...if not, I'll visit The Precious and draw strength.

You gotta love Jesse at his Cafe Americain the other day:

"By the pricking of my thumbs, something wicked this way comes." Wm Shakespeare, Macbeth

and

"The race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but to those who see it coming and jump aside" Hunter S Thompson, The Rum Diary

 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:57 | 1847405 Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

Seems to me it's TSHTF time...too many changes like this with a wobbly Europe, then we have an asteroid incoming, complete with a Pacific fleet tsunami exercise and an Emergency Action Notification System nationwide co-ordinated test, the last of which occurred during the Cuba Missle Crisis in the early 60s (CONELRAD, 640 & 1240).

Ready for more chills, check out the curious case of Army specialist William C. Millay, currently under arrest for alleged espionage in Alaska:

http://www.eutimes.net/2011/11/soldiers-end-of-the-world-email-sends-us-...

http://www.news25.us/story/15940398/neighbors-react-to-millay-arrest

Connect the dots, folks!

http://www.collapsenet.com/262.html

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:06 | 1847449 Waffen
Waffen's picture

HUH..WTF am I reading?  If the part about the attempted arrest and the unwillingness of the military to release him is true, it sounds like the administration tried to do a chill effect on whistle blowers, which gives the story credence.

 

Why would the administration care if it was just some worried kid?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:50 | 1847576 QEsucks
QEsucks's picture

deleted

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:50 | 1847592 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

That's some crazy shit, man.

 

"... it is not beyond the possibility that a coup may be planned against Obama.

Likewise, the FSB notes, it must, also, be considered that Obama may be preparing to establish martial law in the United States and rule under the existing Executive Orders he has granting him unlimited power to do anything he wants.

Whatever the outcome to this most strange of stories may be it is not in our knowing, other than note, and as always, that American may very well be the most dangerous country in the world to be in right now."

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 23:56 | 1847758 tmosley
tmosley's picture

EU Times is Sorcha Fail.  That is NOT reputable.  He is a doomer whore.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:58 | 1847407 zebrasquid
zebrasquid's picture

If there is a rush for liquidity next week, how is that good for stocks?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:59 | 1847418 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

Dude, across the board margin calls are clearly bullish.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:03 | 1847431 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Millions of guys are short.

Too many pre-positioned for "Armegeddon"

If all those guys on margin have to meet margin calls, stocks could explode higher.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:08 | 1847457 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

I had the same thought, then I had another....equity positions being liquidated en masse to meet SPX/Es margin calls, thereby increasing the magnitude of SPX/Es margin calls, thereby...rinse and repeat.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:10 | 1847466 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Are you saying that there are more shorts than longs?

Sat, 11/05/2011 - 00:33 | 1847834 Pancho Villa
Pancho Villa's picture

Well, since the market has generally been up in the last month, perhaps the shorts might more likely to be hit with margin calls than the longs.

But on the other hand, when the CME hikes margins on PMs after they have risen, they generally go down.

Either way, Monday may be very exciting.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:10 | 1847469 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

People don't buy stocks on margin? 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:12 | 1847475 jdelano
jdelano's picture

Robo as a mindless bull you should probably keep up with your bloomberg and barrons-- as of last week investors are skewed bullish.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:12 | 1847478 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"wrong Armageddon."

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:12 | 1847479 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Umm...Robo...are you seriously trying to suggest that short sellers have more liabilities out there that could be called in than say...criminal syndicate Wall Street banks with balance sheets levered 20:1 and higher...holding crap like Netflix and Abercrombie and Geek debt?  Did you happen to catch that story about MF Global?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:14 | 1847486 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

Yeah, cause all the great rallies come out of margin calls.  Wake up tool.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:21 | 1847514 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

millions of guys? is that similar to the "millions of hedge funds" you told us about earlier this week?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:21 | 1847515 The4thStooge
The4thStooge's picture

For once Robo, you actually sound like a rational human being. This could be the ultimate "burn the nasty shorts at the stake" moment.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:26 | 1847532 SpeakerFTD
SpeakerFTD's picture

Thanks, Robo.  I was afraid this might be bad news for the $2MM in margin I have on 5% yielding stocks through Interactive Brokers.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:34 | 1847550 max2205
max2205's picture

Sorry RB, after a 30% run maybe a hundred are net short. It had to be brutal to get washed and baked the last few weeks.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:30 | 1847541 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Because everything's bullish until the big fish money managers get their bonuses.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:59 | 1847412 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

The fact that they did this Friday after hours says all? Gives the Banksters and high rollers time enough to get positioned...as for the rest, sauve qui peut? Or can chopper Ben resolve all thru a few keystrokes? Intelligent people want to know....and PM holders - ahem - don't particularly care.  

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:37 | 1847557 max2205
max2205's picture

Yep they kept pushing up TNA AT THE CLOSE Friday. Where they shorting or buying. We'll find out

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:59 | 1847413 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

Thank you Tyler, I needed a warm fuzzy before bedtime - the quicker this thing locks up and crashes we can start fresh, go long, and relax before the next wave of cocksuckers game the system (they're about 5-10 years old now, by the way).

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:19 | 1847503 jdelano
jdelano's picture

I couldn't say I any better. I am mentally and spiritually? Dying for tabula rosa.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:41 | 1847570 mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

rasa

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 21:59 | 1847416 Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

Fuck margin calls. Lets see which one of you bitches outbids me on this Pontiac Aztec.

http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/2002-Pontiac-Aztec-/150689049160?pt=US_Ca...

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:00 | 1847421 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

Imported From Detroit.

Viva La Azteca

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:03 | 1847434 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

I would, but I blew my wad on a four cylinder Fiero.  I couldn't swing the payments on the LeBaron K-car convertible with faux wood panels.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:21 | 1847509 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

the six cylinder variant wasn't that bad actually.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypPBqqlmvmQ&feature=player_detailpage

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:11 | 1847473 gorillaonyourback
gorillaonyourback's picture

no disrespect, but why would you want to buy a piece of shit?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:25 | 1847524 Conax
Conax's picture

Tryin to unload the old Aztec, eh?

Cleverrr!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:44 | 1847574 mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

Incredible.  The ad actually calls it a "Collectible Car..."   Where was this one during Cash for Clunkers?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 23:30 | 1847698 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

It was hiding in shame behind all those less-fugly Honda Elements....

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 23:31 | 1847699 s2man
s2man's picture

So, this family is driving along in their Aztec, when they hit a slick spot, spin out, and plunge into a lake.  They're all gonna die, for sure.  But the fish all get together and throw them back on land.  'Cause the Aztec was so ugly.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:03 | 1847420 Albertarocks
Albertarocks's picture

"Unless we are completely reading it incorrectly, it is nothing short of a margin call..."

I hope you're right for so many reasons... but can somebody please tell me what it is that suggests this would result in margin calls?   I'm just not seeing it.

 

"Because as of close of business on November 4, today, the CME just made the maintenance margin, traditionally about 26% lower than the initial margin for specs, equal." 

Just between the author and me... I sure as hell hope you're right.  But that's not what I'm seeing.  I'm seeing that "new" positions must be backed up with the normal "initial" margin.  There's nothing new here that I can see.  To me it looks like nothing more than a stand update with a friendly reminder that all new positions require the usual margin, and that's about it.... and an invitation to get on the mailing list.  What am I missing here?  Don't get me wrong... I want this to be correct... I need more proof... more adrenaline.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:16 | 1847483 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

But the notice says that something will be effective at the close of business. What does "VARIOUS" mean? Is something there changed?

Sat, 11/05/2011 - 12:23 | 1847618 Albertarocks
Albertarocks's picture

I think the word "VARIOUS" is referring to the maintenance requirements for various positions that are already in existence.  And I believe the "1.0" under the "NEW" column is probably meaning 100% of the regularly required margin requirement, whatever that is.  I surely doesn't mean 100% of the cost of the position.  So that's why I'm questioning whether or not this notice means anything at all.

Yes... good question.  "What is" going to become effective at the close of trading today?  But as far as I can see there's nothing new in the margin requirements.  And thanks for not trashing me like somebody did within 4 seconds just because they didn't like my first sentence because it rained on their parade. 

A note to that asshole: hey... it's 'my' parade too but we gotta be careful about cumming in our pants too damned quick over something like this.  I mean, it might be serious shit and it might not.  I'm just asking for clarification.  Not sure that's a very good reason to trash my comment.  After all, this 'is' the panic room isn't it?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:01 | 1847424 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Margin margin everywhere but not a drop of liquidity....

 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:17 | 1847493 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

Anyone who thinks margin call are bullish, read Caviar Emptor's post out loud and slowly.....see it?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 23:35 | 1847710 s2man
s2man's picture

Only bullish if you're a bear.  I'm grinning.

Sat, 11/05/2011 - 18:47 | 1849441 JB
JB's picture

+1 for the Coleridge reference.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:01 | 1847427 fonzanoon
fonzanoon's picture

I thought this was skf positive. Now a double short fiancial etf is going to get blown up too?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:05 | 1847445 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

So how, exactly, is this going to be positive for JPM, MS, BAC, etc.? Aren't people going to liquidate everything? I see that there will be some having to cover shorts, but I'm not sure how that makes the price of the TBTF banks go up and thus make FAZ implode.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:01 | 1847428 pleseus
pleseus's picture

Fear not.  The world isn't going to end on Monday.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:43 | 1847572 SpeakerFTD
SpeakerFTD's picture

Yup.  That would be Tuesday.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 23:55 | 1847749 Mine Is Bigger
Mine Is Bigger's picture

Oops

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 23:55 | 1847751 Mine Is Bigger
Mine Is Bigger's picture

I guess you haven't heard.

It would be Friday, 11/11/11.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:04 | 1847437 SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

Get the lube ready for Sunday night.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:04 | 1847442 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Going to be interesting. Does gold dump or go nuclear? Will buy more if it dumps.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:08 | 1847459 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Or the physical price decouples from the paper......

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:05 | 1847444 FubarNation
FubarNation's picture

Ok so Tyler has posted many upon many possible SHTF stories here on ZH. 

On a scale of 1 - 10 (1 being a skid and 10 being a full blown colon blow)

How does this rate in the shit department Gents?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:07 | 1847455 Nate H
Nate H's picture

3

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:15 | 1847468 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

7, but considering the other dominoes to fall.....

This could start a panic started by Mother Fucking Global which was started by Lehman which was actually stated with Bear three long years ago.

Reality awaits, and while men diddle, nature acts.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:15 | 1847491 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

If there's going to be hundreds of thousands of margin calls on Monday from this one exchange, I think that rates a 5.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 23:03 | 1847620 Waffen
Waffen's picture

Then what would rate as a 10, "1000 Russian Mirv'd ICB's to impact in 3 minutes?"

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 23:34 | 1847706 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

"The Federal Reserve Comes Clean on Exactly How Much Has Been Lent to Foreign and Domestic Constituents"

News at 11, or whenever the FCC restores communications....

Sat, 11/05/2011 - 04:04 | 1848060 mkkby
mkkby's picture

The guards at Fort Knox let Ron Paul through the gates, and he confirms that the entire vault is empty and clean as a whisle.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:21 | 1847508 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

Can I get back to you next week?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:05 | 1847446 gorillaonyourback
gorillaonyourback's picture

show charlie murphy yo tits,,,,,um,um,um  the milks gone dry.   the cme's balls are shrivelling up,,,,, maybe precious metals will be rid of one form of manipulation.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:08 | 1847461 Rynak
Rynak's picture

Manufactured global paper-market crash: We want to print now!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:09 | 1847465 nathan1234
nathan1234's picture

Ah this is the moment the Chinese have been waiting for.

Now they can screw all those banks who screwed them with their dummy CDS's.

I hope JPM, Goldman and their ilk get a boot in their groins

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:39 | 1847562 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

This will probably end with everyone standing around laughing just like the old Disney flicks.  Only this time everyone will be Chinese.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:13 | 1847481 ivars
ivars's picture

Little bit longer perspective on Silver prices(till Feb1 2012):

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&start=820#p34947

And Gold prices (till feb 1 2012:

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&start=820#p34949

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 22:13 | 1847484 monopoly
monopoly's picture

But the markets cannot blow up. We have an election next year. Please wait, please wait, pleaseess waaiitttt.

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