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Credit Suisse Explains "The Real Issue", And Why There Is Two Months Tops Until France Is In The Bulls Eye
Credit Suisse's William Porter is strangely laconic and oddly brief in his latest issue of the European Credit Flash titled "The Real Issue":
"It’s all about Spain”, so now we are cutting to the chase. Recapitalization of the banks versus funding the sovereign is of course a semantic issue given the nature of the interplay. But it enables the attempted finesse we describe below.
"Portugal cannot rescue Greece, Spain cannot rescue Portugal, Italy cannot rescue Spain (as is surely about to become all too abundantly clear), France cannot rescue Italy, but Germany can rescue France.” Or, the credit of the EFSF/ESM, if called upon to provide funds in large size, either calls upon the credit of Germany, or fails; i.e, it seems to us that it probably cannot fund to the extent needed to save the credit of one (and probably imminently two) countries that had hitherto been considered “too big so save” without joint and several guarantees.
The issue can be finessed for a while by addressing the issues as bank issues and recapitalizing the banks by bond transfer. This hides from the (primary) market and is simply another manifestation of the “Sarko trade” given by the LTRO. That rally lasted four months. Given the market’s adaptive learning behaviour, we suspect that this finesse might last two. The eventual denouement should be flagged by symptoms of the failure of the credit of EFSF/ESM and/or France.
And there you have it. As evidenced by today's reaction to the bailout, which had a half life of 2 hours, and was a complete failure in 6, the market is learning much, much faster than expected. Which also means that Porter's estimate for the length of time before the next wave of the contagion tsunami strikes somewhere in the middle of the 8th arrondissement is furiously optimistic, but we agree: 2 months tops.
Which is in keeping with the Soros' estimate of T minus 3 months before the Eurozone ends without a major intervention by Germany (which will eventually happen, courtesy of a Berlin-funded DIP loan, but purely on Germany's terms), but also that of Christine Lagarde who just doubled down on Soros' three month estimate as well.
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That game ends with Germany punching you in the nose
Soon as they're done with their sit down pee...
Give us the money or the economy gets it a month before the election.
Italy will demand it's spot on the stage before France...(both attention whores). France will go last with lots of Enlightenment proclamations followed by the Great Terror. Oh wait, I think I must have re-read an old passage.
I think most people thought Italy before Spain so I am not so sure about Italy before France. Italians have a way of staying together whereas the French, not so much.
No one I know in the investment world thought that. It was always Greece/Portugal then Spain, then Italy then France then forgetaboutit.
Italy went through 50 governments in 50 years. France...even now....has DeGaulle. "the man who saved France's honor." Twice. Sorry but I don't bet against France. They've been fighting side by side with us for this entire decade. Only the English can say that. Of course We Americans are so easy to fight alongside. We never forget those who sacrifice...nor those who sacrifice along side us.
The problem with borrowing money is you have to pay it back.
Interest only payments don't cut it
No skin ... no asset
You don't have to pay it back or haven't you been paying attention?
The pain in Spain falls mainly on the Seine.
You are quite right. The French have a major exposure to Spain, whereas Italy's exposure to Spain is almost negligable...
Ah, yes, another crash right before a US presidential election causing the sheep to switch back again to the other side of the same road where they will find exactly the same potholes. This will be reversed in the next election since sheep are so stupid they try the same thing over and over again expecting different results.
I don't think they will be shocked to the other side. I think the story will go like this..... Obama resolved America's financial crisis caused by Wall Street greed. We had some pretty good results before Europe.... Do you really want to turn over the reigns to a Wall street insider? I don't think Mitt has a chance.
But you're right the sheeple are stupid . They ignored the one voice of sanity in the debate.
Re. Who the Sheeple want and don't want.
There's always Diebold.
Surely, France won't do away with " Ortolan Bunting"? When austerity time comes around. /sarc
You are oddly brilliant.
"For centuries, a rite of passage for French gourmets has been the eating of the Ortolan. These tiny birds—captured alive, force-fed, then drowned in Armagnac—were roasted whole and eaten that way, bones and all, while the diner draped his head with a linen napkin to preserve the precious aromas and, some believe, to hide from God."
sounds like a 'Dutch Oven' to me...
~~~
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=dutch%20oven
Pure evil.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnQZ5AHUk2U
The Bernake will come to the rescue and kick the can. He can maybe buy another couple months. October 29th 2012??
I don't think Mitt reappoints Benny if he is elected. Therefore I would think Benny wants Obama reelected. QE3 coming to a place near you soon.
as IF Mitt is really an important chess piece in this game of checkers...
at least he doesn't eat dogs...........yet.
In a few months, the neighbor's dachsund might look pretty good between a bun......
Maybe I will pull a raid on the animal shelter.
Generalissimo Bernark has his squadron of stealth money-bombers at the ready.
I don't know why Germany hasn't spent all its Euros on gold and re-introduced their own money.
A Germany backed Euro-Bond to add to the mother of all bond bubbles. Nice.
Didn't think that retrace ( 900 pips over 4 weeks would hit the 50% FIBI IN 3 DAYS!) i'M SURE YOU TIMED IT RIGHT THOUGH.
Trying to time bottoms, but the market just can't short squeeze. Rebound and retrace trades are there, but, market is going bear very quickly. Longs on risk will cut. y'know Yen what has been quite? HFTs. I think that is kinda scary. Those machines are just too quite i.e something long will cut hard and sell signal/s galore. When? I dunno, maybe soon.
The lake is deep.
Over 250ft deep, where I had my accident.
Diving is a hobby, not a profession! Sounds horrible! ( Glad you can Discuss). Smells like a crew F--k up to me!
Funny.
Yes, France is the big nation waiting in the wings.
Germany cannot and will not go along with this farce interminably.
When the dominoes fall they will fall hard because of the tension built up with nonsensical "plans".
Angela may be able to get Germany all of Europe's gold yet. She may be successful where Hitler was not.
I dont think its her. She's in it politically. The German financiers want to make sure she doesnt bankupt them. Fair enough.
You seem to think that Germany isn't run by a bankster puppet...
Clearly Germany is run by bankster puppets.
The issue is, under the circumstances, can the bankster puppets who run Germany stear the German people down the same path, again, that led to the Weimar hyper-inflation and all the sad subsequent events.
We should see soon how this plays out.
'La Stampa claimed that the IMF could provide up to €600bn (£515bn) at a rate of 4%-5%, giving Italy 18 months to sort its finances out.'
guardian nov 2011.
I wish I knew why everythings so quiet about Italy after the furore last year. And also I wish I knew who pays up the 600bn for Italy to survive another for 18 months, because I don't rightly know, unless its Italy funding Italy's bailout of course, then it makes sense in a sort of EU speak
Or is it a bail in, not a bail out. It sounds like a bail in to me.
United States provides 17% of IMF funds....that amounts to $102 Billion of the $600 Billion. These assholes have already spent our kids and grandkids future...now they are working on the great-grandkids.
Nope, the market is getting the shits faster than previously ..i think they call it 'fear' in old terminology ...target your Exit and plan your shortest bolting pattern to said safety zone.
Banks and Govt: the new Fukushima accidents waiting to happen
The [ DXY ] has been pretty chop/chop on the hourly. Lot's of (FX) rebalancing in Asia and M.E. sovereigns. The {SNB} has printed chf into oblivion! Long eur/chf @ 1.2004, by the way.
Hedged aud/jpy ( stop order) on the [aud] Industrial production #'s later. Lot's of support below for aud/usd. If it breaks , I'm covering with aud/jpy.
Because the B.O.J. isn't going to do Jack Shit, on Thursday!
Stupid boy
If the Lord wanted to give this planet an enema he would insert the nozzle just north of the Arc de Triomphe.
http://waznmentobe.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Paul-Krugman...
Quis guarantiat guarantores?
and who will watch the watchmen
"Recapitalization of the banks versus funding the sovereign is of course a semantic issue given the nature of the interplay."
"... it seems to us (CS) that it probably cannot fund to the extent needed to save the credit of one (and probably imminently two) countries that had hitherto been considered “too big so save” without joint and several guarantees."
Which can be amended or abrogated at the will or leisure of the sovereign or in joint custody/partnership with the aforementioned banks.
Tattered webs & whatnot...when the force of law (contract or otherwise) takes the form of this wet noodle, it ceases to be trusted as binding to anyone but the primary parties and the victims it hopes to ensnare.
In this case, the banks & sovereigns are the spiders.
"wet noodle" indeed :)
in English, who are the flys caught in the web, the taxpayers or the subordinated bondholders?
lol...in reality both...with the taxpayer always completely consumed by any unforseen "event".
In the land of the subordinated blind, the one eyed King still rules ;-)
My favorite part:
Damn, two months to all hell breaks loose.
If Germany backstops the whole EU then their will be a run on Bunds. With every bailout we come one step closer to a complete and total meltdown.
In other words, Nothing new here.
German notes: This morning .0007% on 3 month notes!
.10-100-1000-10000 0f a BASIS POINT!
Safe haven for now. Swiss 2 year is and has been negative.
End game is US treasuries
so why not just hold cash? Do they issue $billon notes?
Hold " Gold & Silver" a little platinum. The market swings are ok. Just remember that you can't "EAT" metal over extended periods of time.
Why did " PIRATES bury their BOUNTIE' in the Sandie Beaches, of the Tropics? mispells intended , ARRRR!
"It's zeroes all the way down...!"
In a bipolar world, hold 50% cash and 50% physical gold
I get the same feeling as the crazy stuff that went on in the late 90's with the internet bubble....asking how long can this go on for. This extend and pretend goes way beyond the intenet bubble, and it will destroy the entire financial system. The only people that will profit are the ones already making a living outside the system...organized crime (old world and new world).
Lets get it over with and just start a war already.
this reminds me of scene in blazing saddles.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_JOGmXpe5I
I miss last season's Euro Crisis! cast. Berlusconi was outrageously entertaining with his "bunga bunga" exploits, Sarkozy was the perfect dapper little French snob, and that jolly Greek Finance Minister (Vuvuzula?) was a scene-stealer! That was top entertainment.
This season's cast is dry as toast and the show's gone old and stale. It's time to get rid of these drab lifeless dolts, bring back some color personalities, and pep up the script big time. If you're just going to repeat stuff from past episodes over and over, bring back Sausage The Riot Dog!
At least we've still got original cast members Von Rompuy and Merkel.
Don't worry, I think we got many more seasons left. There's bound to be some interesting characters coming up.
itstippy
The same puppet masters, with new names.
this analysis is weak
"Recapitalization of the banks versus funding the sovereign is of course a semantic issue given the nature of the interplay"
not when the sovereign gets funded and santander doesn't
people wanna bet santander gets its recapitalization funded with hard money supplied by angela for collateral owned by spain?
go ahead!
i think those billions might be better used keeping spanish checks in the mail for a while rather than benefitting what's left of the stockholders who allowed the santander banksters to rape and pillage and walk away
so that is the future of the EU? re-capitalizing santander with german money b/c it will be on debtor-in-possession terms? Hahahahaha! absurd! this isn't the USA! this is the EU!
if you are trying to say that timmah and christineL went into spain two weeks ago and put together a plan to save spain by recapitalizing santander with a german-supplied hard-money loan on some stuff that santander didn't already steal, why don't you just come right out and say it?
this bankster seems to be arguing that in a situ where everybody and his uncle just wants to kick the can and buy time that spainish banks' abaility to buy time via swaps may not have as lasting an effect on the credit makets as recently due to public understanding and therefore what?
they well do a mojor intervention when the swaps are due in maybe two months b/c that is half of four months and soros said 3 months, so now that's that?
if you say so, tyler! L0L!!!
Slewie you are absolutely right! I Forgot about those Fed swaps "90 day" contracts that were done @ eur/usd 1.32 area!
Good memory my man! i was looking at LTRO,ESM crapola. They are rolling S/T debt!
Nice work Slewie!
EngRISH RAW counts... as aRways...
Better than " sovereign law"? I got the joke though.
With all that EU collateral that the Bernak said they had.
Remember?
he told Congress it was collateralized....
Fuck it, it all nets out to Zero in the End.
L0L!!!
hi Y/C! I'm So Glad-Cream
i'm now entirely sure how this all works out, but timmah and christine L were in there just under 2 weeks ago, together!
i started writing about the 'script' right afetr they pulled out
nobody listens for over ten days? not emotional enuf? not enuf blood? the finiMinis don't say this? the end of the EU? the MSM and soros and creditS didn't fuking notice? gPap and syrizzza didn't discuss it?
now we have straw man after straw man after straw man dragged out, propped up, shot down and now it's almost tuesday and the sky is gonna fall?
almost two weeks and i've just been trying to point out that maybe some emergency safety net firewall-type swaps might ba in place if needed and i've been junked, called names, shat upon, spat upon, laughed at and ignored
where the fuk you been?
I be " Wee Tarded" !
Call Christine La Garde fi"or a safety net!
Slewie I have hunch! The markets are re-grouping.
I was technical Slewie! 1280 /spx style.
i've seen you around...
yeah i keep jacking that guy up unmercifully! and christineL and her tin-cupChanel?
jacksonHole, wyoming, USA; angela won't be there; not too many political types but i don't think the banksters are confused about what they want to project about the EU
Central bankers face uneasy mood ahead of Jackson Hole economic summit you will get a kick outa this b/c it is from 2011 and NOTHING HAS CHANGED!You know the Web is filled with opinions, not unlike this site. I follow a lot of so called smart people on the Web.
And the world is in a very bad place, but there's also a chance the doomers are wrong. At least in their immediate time frames.
Only time will prove everything. I say, things will get very bad, but not as bad as most think.
I also think, if you're in you 50's, and live another 40+ years, you will be fine. Depending on how well you saved, health and otherwise.
Anyone, under 50 is going to have a very hard time.
"I also think, if you're in you 50's, and live another 40+ years, you will be fine. Depending on how well you saved, health and otherwise. Anyone, under 50 is going to have a very hard time."
The over 50's engineered an entitlement society in the states and if you think a deflationary collapse will leave you with all the assets and no midnight knocks on the door you may wish to cut back on the anti-anxiety meds.
If I pay a fee, will you do a custom chart? I was born at 11am, but a day late, so you have to somehow calculate that in. What I mainly want to know is, will I ever find love?
Germany is more fucked then people imagine.
17.6 % of its exports last year were cars........soon very few of us in Europe will be driving private vehicles.
Much of its other exports is boutique manufactured goods....... not a very good business plan for a global depression me thinks.
"Have you got any Bread sir" ?
Nein , not enough to export anyhow.
Extend and pretend, one day (or month) at a time. Germany is faced with a gigantic unemployment problem if the rest of Europe stops buying their stuff. It may be better to "sell" those cars to people that can't pay for them than face the alternative layoffs. At least they might get a few more months before they must admit that the loans aren't getting any paybacks.
When all the prole's savings are transferred to the financial "industry" there won't be any need to extend and pretend anymore. It will be time to leave town. Not so different on the left side of the big pond either.
Ah, but tyhey can sell you a stainless steel, industrial design award winning, bread maker
Maybe. But the hood can't even do that.
LET THEM EAT CAKE !!!
Monday night music,,,
All along the tracks.....Gutheri Govan...For all those guitar player's out there listen and weep!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7JPPTzQUKdk
Our new master race of elites will never admit their Keyensian Socialism and the EU is a fraud and give up control. I think a massive global print will be done in a coordinated manner to try to paper over the blame and begin the meme for a World Bank. TARP was forced on many US banks to cover up which ones were the biggest losers and prevent runs on them.
If they keep bailing this thing out in two months time we're going to test our limits of reading about it.
And why does Germany want a wasteland anyhow.
They won't go for it unless they get the gold. Once they get that they'll tell them to take a hike.
q99x2
Relax.
need advice mates: how to short french bonds? ideally go long oz vs short fr? some etf there?
http://www.wallstreet-online.de/fonds/6624797#t:3y||s:lines||a:abs||v:week||l:vol
Market is short again.
Evans the Fed butnut just hinted the MBS buy up. May still slam equities despite PIMCO's all in bet.
Funny how that works. I'm long to!
Told ya so! It's just rebalancing.
Just took profit. .9925 pivot. Underneath 10day sma. No more smiley faces/ Thank you!
Sad. Long gone are the days of B9K9 and Cheeky. Now we have Yen Cross and Slewie....
You obviously are upset? I am tired of trading London into " transaction tax" IDEAS!
3MonthsZHober Let's get to Understand each other?
if you make friends with Y/C and e-mail him: you wil get some great child porn for your hard drive. free!
this link is from me; i put stuff like this up all the time; some of it is even real; see whatch think, ok? and say hi to the black helicopters for us!
The Full Story Behind the Arrest of ICC Four-member Team in Libya An Australian lawyer named Melinda Taylor makes a breach to the Libyan national security and turns out to be a spy for an unknown party. She gets caught red handed, violating the Libyan people’s trust in the ICC and its employees from top down.Here's Hollande's proposals on how to fix the French economy:
France's new Socialist government is planning to ramp up the cost of laying off workers for companies in the coming months, its labour minister said on Thursday after data showed the jobless rate hit the highest level this century at 10 percent.
"The main idea is to make layoffs so expensive for companies that it's not worth it," Sapin said in an interview with France Info radio.
"It's not a question of sanctions, but workers have to have compensation at the right level," he said.
Industry Minister Arnaud Montebourg is also planning legislation that would force companies to sell plants they want to get rid of at market prices to avoid closures and job losses.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/06/hollande-about-to-wreck-france-with.html
genius. France will always be hindered by visions of world domination at all levels...Language, science, philosophy, Language, business, art, food, Lanugage and Language. They cannot accept that the world, for all its problems, is in English and runs on dollars. Smart money moves to London to advance economically. IF only the world could go back to using the French Language.....we could work it all out.
In other words....The lazier I am, the harder I am to fire!!
http://seekingalpha.com/article/632301-darkness-at-noon-in-spain
Pressing Ctrl- P is not the proper way to create new money. You can't just create money and give it to your friends and bankers. The rest of us will become angry. Money has to be borrowed to be created and BB is pushing on a string because very few people have the ability or desire to borrow more money.
Finally, France finally gets what it deserves. The days of Napoleon are long gone and Germany runs the show now.
Saw an elderly race car driver just now on a special about a huge crash at Le Mans in 1955. He said essentially this:
'We don't care how fast we're going. We don't even put speedometers in the cars. We just want to know one thing: Are we in control? As long as we are we just go faster and faster. Until we reach the limit. Then we balance ourselves. That is how we make good time.'
And people wonder how this whole thing cracks up when the psychopaths have all the responsible adults taken out back and tossed off the boat.....
Kind of like how we handle nuclear policy, eh? Good observation.
re/Spectfully, Lay off the "enter" key! Cordially YEN!
Count the posts, look in the mirror, get back to me.
Look in the " Mirror"? Look into the Future!
MsCreant
Two of my favorite ZHers having a wee squabble....Fight Club FTW!
She'll beat him over the head with his own dildo.
the wealthy do get bored, can you blame the dears?
Imagine rolling hills? What do you see?
That is trading, if you really like to do it! Trading is awesome/ and derserves respect.
Trading Makes ? Don't short aud yet. Do it around parity.
Target 93.
...bullseye looks like a buddhist try'n to escape charity in Babylon.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddn-5uKH6MU
Is it my imagination? ...or is Kristine an Amazon? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V93pamakUiE
If Germany bad them all out..who will bail out Germany?
shhhhhhh!
The real issue is that Beck's Beer is no longer imported from Germany, it's now made in St. Louis with the other horse piss beers. How does a guy even start looking for a new beer after 20 years of being true to just one?
My favorite is San Miguel Dark from the Philippians. It was partially owned by MacArthur in WW2 and why he really said, "I shall return". SALUTE!
test
Excellent trolling possibilities with this one. You will never, ever, top MDB. Please try tho, I will look for you and cheer you on.
Apart from wearing yourself, wholesale snapbacks are the ideal gift for friends, family and colleagues. They are chic and cool yet, affordable; most people love them. This is one gift you wouldn't go wrong with. They can easily sport them every day and remember you, with fondness whenever they do so. If you wish to go a step further and personalize the wholesale snapback hats, you may do so. Depending on their loyalty to some sports team or affiliation to some cause, you may have their message or logo printed on the Snapbacks too. It would be very thoughtful on your behalf, and the receiver would surely cherish it.
But wait..didn't SocGen just say this is the best time since 2009 to buy stocks?
socgen are the biggest doomers south of Citi. they would sell you the marked up trade, then sell you into oblivion. Risk is deteriorating at an incredible rate with a bond bubble from hell forming. We are a few months out (or sooner) of an absolute liquidation trade to zero...if bonds crash.
Central bankers madly trying to reflate a punctured balloon.....rots of ruck there.
Gold is not the answer. NEVER HAS BEEN. ITS JUST A COMMODITY.
What is the answer then? More Hope and Change? I have more toilet paper than I have US treasuries. I'll bet that's a good hedge to start with
you are right, when you define 'never' as several thousand years.
Gold is not the answer. But it is the solution to your and my best outcome from here.
Karl
gold is a monetary asset to all central banks, as sson as they touch it it has gone from commodity status to money.
Why do they continue to buy it? Chine by the ton (>100 in April)
Karl
gold is a monetary asset to all central banks, as sson as they touch it it has gone from commodity status to money.
Why do they continue to buy it? Chine by the ton (>100 in April)
Here comes the Asian bear news...no where to hide
*Bearish comments on Japan from the IMF sparking JPY sales across the board.
USD bids in correction back on as the world econ crumbles
Germany has 80 million people; it cannot possibly bail out the whole euro zone, or even any significant part of it. The Spanish Subterfuge failing in less than 48 hours is the end.
Bravo. You have captured the essence. Germany as savior is a canard. They haven't the capacity.
Neither has the US....its all interconnected.
I am relatively ready but i just can't see anything happen anytime soon.
Maybe because many a time I thought it will go down and nothing happened.
We are perfectly capable for 5 or 10 more years of can kicking.
I'd hate to get caught unaware of the impeding crash, but that's what will have to happen if the shit is to hit the fan soon.
I always talk about currencies. I love option trading. heck ( AAPL august calls are cheap NO?)
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Wanzi Clix / here
Look @ that Economic calendar!
Fiat Troll!
Thank GOD! I can maintain a margin account!
I'm sleeping, like a " kitten following a leacky Cow".<>
i'm laughingMao
i hope that those of us not entertained in blissful irony are prepared for the collapse
from wires. ZH covered these mths ago
--Cost of Spanish funding may yet rise even more
--Subordination of bond holders under ESM rules is an issue
--Reaction in Ireland and Greece not helpful to yields
Boom. There goes the bailout, market sells till the crazies at the Fed get all crazy with some QE3/USD swaps (the mother of swaps).
for the metal heads http://youtu.be/hyWJCd1GYhw
These Germans in the River Rhine are not going to get off that easy. They have scores to settle with the States that have fallen victims of them and it is certain that an ominous future lies ahead of them. The Europe they have created with lame material bought with money from usuries is falling apart and it is certain that the criminals will stand accused. It is inevitable because their deliberate mistakes have cost human lives. Humans have lost their lives as a result of the choices the criminals have made. The documents we have so far are enough to substantiate a charge against them. There are public declarations of the criminals, where they themselves confirm their criminal actions.
When a leader of a big State publicly declares that he wants – therefore through his politics will make sure – to cause extreme suffering to Greece so that other States can learn a lesson, he must know that this is a crime. Why? It is because a State is like the human organism. A serious blow can hurt but not kill it, still innumerous of its cells will die as a result of that deliberate blow. The citizens of a State are its cells.
http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.nl/2012/05/greece-among-salem-witches.html
If Merkel and Schäuble’s politics cause Greece to suffer, it is natural that its 1,700 cells will die as a result. These deaths, though, are not by natural causes. They are the result of murder, because they have been caused by someone who just wanted to hurt Greece; hurt it more than its own mistakes would. Where is the proof of what we are saying here? The proof is that after the current electoral deadlock in Greece some European officials have hastened to propose looser measures for Greece.
It is prescient to see Credit Suisse now predicting the tail spin of Eurozone going into a death dive. The banking diva of the first funny money storage zone of europe says that Euro money is gonna burn as the core is now in the danger zone. Soros gave Germany three months, Credit Suisse gives France two!
Wow, and poor O'bammy who wants to get elected in the greatest crap house of them all. And its all interconnected, the banks are cringing as they see the impotence of their own shadow politicians wringing their hands in frustration. Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide, against the rising tide, as sleight of hand loses its magic touch, as thieves then bicker and fall out and burn each other's very private golden hide-out; yesterday Santander, tomorrow Paribas, day after Deutsch Bank and then things will get serious for the golden, ponzi fiatista "one square mile" of Londonista and Wall Street Bearista honey money.
Land of the Oligarchs, crisis of western civilization, we now have to face the "denouement" of this awesome power struggle : Does feudal first World now openly bow to the Oligarchs and is the democracy and republic dead in western world. If so, goodbye Jefferson and Danton, we are but the shadow of the past and our future will look like pre-renaissance days when the Conditorris ran the world along with the Pope; who is now the HFT manipulated global market of the new Vatican. Play on Sisyphus!
BTW : Tribune de Geneve cites a financial analyst who is as bearish as Credit Suisse :
Marchés financiers: Les très sombres prédictions du Dr Zulauf - Économie - tdg.ch
Pigs = Eurozone - Germany
http://agstock.blogspot.com.es/2012/06/decorrelation-between-europe-and....
so, "by end of summer" is still looking good for eurogeddon?
I used to live in six-men-to-change-a-(street)-lightbulb-land. I still love it, but always wondered how long they could get away with it this century around. Answer: 30 years longer than my estimate.
Attention!: Expect planet-axis shifting amounts of blame & merde hurled outwards from the most over-hyped country of them all.
"Credit Suisse's William Porter says ... Euro is completely stuffed in 2 months ... blah blah"
The cognitive dissonance at play here is that this guy is "in the market", and he's plainly already seeing as implicitly SNAFU, so why would it take two months for everyone else to realise the same obvious thing?
Why would this take two months?
I can't understand how this, "the market", can build up such a high dam-wall of denial about this, to still be failing to recognise this, almost immediately?
Clearly the underlaying processes that keep this going, regardless of the fact of gravity, and no visible means of support, is not apparent in the narratives I keep hearing about it. Other factors are not being accounted for, for if they are, I'm not understanding these.
Could it be that the universal faith that 'money' can buy stuff is the underpinning belief that has to evaporate before the system's paper-promises can implode? If so, actual real point of collapse can only be either,
1) when most people have no money at all,
2) or when they realise their money can't pay the bills and feed them anyway.
--
True story, I bought a box of bath soap today, regular size box but it felt very light. I got home and found they were scalloped out and thin in the middle, almost like oblong wannabe donuts.
I don't know if or when I'll ever see a genuine bar of soap again, that has not been debased, like the oval shaped soaps, where they eliminated the corners, the hollowed out soap, and petite designed-look soap ... all the tricks they use to make you feel more privileged ... to get less soap ...
It could be several decades ... hmmm ... hey Tyler ... you stil making 'soap' these days?
Here is some good analysis for what all of this means for Germany (it ain't purty):
http://www.eurointelligence.com/eurointelligence-news/home/singleview/article/the-euro-zone-debt-crisis-we-need-to-talk-about-germany.html
Now compare that with an intelligent analysis of the overhanging derivatives cloud over US banking, hidden under the OTC carpet in offshore banking, and you will have a correct picture of why the global banking Oligarchy is doomed, and we along with them, on both sides of the pond!
These gurus always play ONE tune to serve their paymasters, never both sides of the record. What Bismarckian Merkel has done Caesar's sons in DC/WS have outdone over thirty years. There lies the rub, and it ain't purty either! In fact its ten times worse! Play on exorbitant privilege and massive military big stick as back-up of Pax Americana. The race to foggy bottom is truly on!
but today the futures are higher on rumors of "stimulus"
after every sell off, throw out the central planner rumor to get the shorts to cover
http://capital3x.com/think-tank/charts-and-analysis-from-11-june-2012/
charts and analysis
I hope you all realise that the jubilation that you express may turn to fear. Once the Euro zone, the UK and japan collapse it will not stop there.
The US economy may be the largest, but it will fall the furthest.
More clownist reporting by the TRIBE. How about we turn our attention to the insolvent USA?
Hendry stated we were 12 months from seeing a complete nationalization of the french banking sector when he was at the Milken Institute's Global Conference in May