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Credit Suisse Explains "The Real Issue", And Why There Is Two Months Tops Until France Is In The Bulls Eye

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Credit Suisse's William Porter is strangely laconic and oddly brief in his latest issue of the European Credit Flash titled "The Real Issue":

"It’s all about Spain”, so now we are cutting to the chase. Recapitalization of the banks versus funding the sovereign is of course a semantic issue given the nature of the interplay. But it enables the attempted finesse we describe below.

 

"Portugal cannot rescue Greece, Spain cannot rescue Portugal, Italy cannot  rescue Spain (as is surely about to become all too abundantly clear),  France cannot rescue Italy, but Germany can rescue France.” Or, the credit of the EFSF/ESM, if called upon to provide funds in large size, either calls upon the credit of Germany, or fails; i.e, it seems to us that it probably cannot fund to the extent needed to save the credit of one (and probably  imminently two) countries that had hitherto been considered “too big so save” without joint and several guarantees.

 

The issue can be finessed for a while by addressing the issues as bank issues and recapitalizing the banks by bond transfer. This hides from the  (primary) market and is simply another manifestation of the “Sarko trade” given by the LTRO. That rally lasted four months. Given the market’s adaptive learning behaviour, we suspect that this finesse might last two. The eventual denouement should be flagged by symptoms of the failure of  the credit of EFSF/ESM and/or France.

And there you have it. As evidenced by today's reaction to the bailout, which had a half life of 2 hours, and was a complete failure in 6, the market is learning much, much faster than expected. Which also means that Porter's estimate for the length of time before the next wave of the contagion tsunami strikes somewhere in the middle of the 8th arrondissement is furiously optimistic, but we agree: 2 months tops.

Which is in keeping with the Soros' estimate of T minus 3 months before the Eurozone ends without a major intervention by Germany (which will eventually happen, courtesy of a Berlin-funded DIP loan, but purely on Germany's terms), but also that of Christine Lagarde who just doubled down on Soros' three month estimate as well.

 

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Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:58 | 2516406 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

That game ends with Germany punching you in the nose

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 22:54 | 2516839 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Soon as they're done with their sit down pee...

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:28 | 2516340 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

Give us the money or the economy gets it a month before the election.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:29 | 2516343 AssFire
AssFire's picture

Italy will demand it's spot on the stage before France...(both attention whores). France will go last with lots of Enlightenment proclamations followed by the Great Terror. Oh wait, I think I must have re-read an old passage.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:44 | 2516372 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

I think most people thought Italy before Spain so I am not so sure about Italy before France.  Italians have a way of staying together whereas the French, not so much.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:17 | 2516445 ATM
ATM's picture

No one I know in the investment world thought that. It was always Greece/Portugal then Spain, then Italy then France then forgetaboutit.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 01:15 | 2517075 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Italy went through 50 governments in 50 years. France...even now....has DeGaulle. "the man who saved France's honor." Twice. Sorry but I don't bet against France. They've been fighting side by side with us for this entire decade. Only the English can say that. Of course We Americans are so easy to fight alongside. We never forget those who sacrifice...nor those who sacrifice along side us.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:32 | 2516349 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

The problem with borrowing money is you have to pay it back.

Interest only payments don't cut it

No skin ... no asset

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:18 | 2516446 ATM
ATM's picture

You don't have to pay it back or haven't you been paying attention?

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:37 | 2516356 Paladin en passant
Paladin en passant's picture

The pain in Spain falls mainly on the Seine.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:12 | 2516578 Rogier
Rogier's picture

You are quite right. The French have a major exposure to Spain, whereas Italy's exposure to Spain is almost negligable...

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:38 | 2516357 Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

Ah, yes, another crash right before a US presidential election causing the sheep to switch back again to the other side of the same road where they will find exactly the same potholes.  This will be reversed in the next election since sheep are so stupid they try the same thing over and over again expecting different results.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:05 | 2516556 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I don't think they will be shocked to the other side. I think the story will go like this..... Obama resolved America's financial crisis caused by Wall Street greed. We had some pretty good results before Europe.... Do you really want to turn over the reigns to a Wall street insider? I don't think Mitt has a chance.
But you're right the sheeple are stupid . They ignored the one voice of sanity in the debate.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 23:12 | 2516880 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

Re. Who the Sheeple want and don't want.

There's always Diebold.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:39 | 2516361 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Surely, France won't do away with " Ortolan Bunting"?  When austerity time comes around. /sarc

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:48 | 2516506 Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

You are oddly brilliant.

"For centuries, a rite of passage for French gourmets has been the eating of the Ortolan. These tiny birds—captured alive, force-fed, then drowned in Armagnac—were roasted whole and eaten that way, bones and all, while the diner draped his head with a linen napkin to preserve the precious aromas and, some believe, to hide from God."

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:54 | 2516521 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

sounds like a 'Dutch Oven' to me...

~~~

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=dutch%20oven

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 04:43 | 2517202 Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

Pure evil.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:45 | 2516374 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

The Bernake will come to the rescue and kick the can. He can maybe buy another couple months. October 29th 2012??

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:35 | 2516485 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

I don't think Mitt reappoints Benny if he is elected. Therefore I would think Benny wants Obama reelected. QE3 coming to a place near you soon.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:56 | 2516529 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

as IF Mitt is really an important chess piece in this game of checkers...

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 05:01 | 2517207 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

at least he doesn't eat dogs...........yet.

In a few months, the neighbor's dachsund might look pretty good between a bun......

Maybe I will pull a raid on the animal shelter.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:46 | 2516375 world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

Generalissimo Bernark has his squadron of stealth money-bombers at the ready.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:48 | 2516378 Pumpkin
Pumpkin's picture

I don't know why Germany hasn't spent all its Euros on gold and re-introduced their own money.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:49 | 2516386 chump666
chump666's picture

A Germany backed Euro-Bond to add to the mother of all bond bubbles.  Nice. 

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:26 | 2516461 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Didn't think that retrace ( 900 pips over 4 weeks would hit the 50% FIBI IN 3 DAYS!) i'M SURE YOU TIMED IT RIGHT THOUGH.

 

 

 

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 22:00 | 2516697 chump666
chump666's picture

Trying to time bottoms, but the market just can't short squeeze.  Rebound and retrace trades are there, but, market is going bear very quickly.  Longs on risk will cut.  y'know Yen what has been quite?  HFTs.  I think that is kinda scary.  Those machines are just too quite i.e something long will cut hard and sell signal/s galore.  When?  I dunno, maybe soon.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:49 | 2516387 Mordan I
Mordan I's picture

The lake is deep.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:13 | 2516435 CCanuck
CCanuck's picture

Over 250ft deep, where I had my accident.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:18 | 2516447 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Diving is a hobby, not a profession!  Sounds horrible!  ( Glad you can Discuss).  Smells like a crew F--k up to me!

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:50 | 2516389 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Funny.

Yes, France is the big nation waiting in the wings.

Germany cannot and will not go along with this farce interminably.

When the dominoes fall they will fall hard because of the tension built up with nonsensical "plans".

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:59 | 2516542 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Angela may be able to get Germany all of Europe's gold yet. She may be successful where Hitler was not.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 08:19 | 2517390 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

I dont think its her. She's in it politically. The German financiers want to make sure she doesnt bankupt them. Fair enough.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 22:20 | 2516748 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

You seem to think that Germany isn't run by a bankster puppet...

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 23:19 | 2516896 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

Clearly Germany is run by bankster puppets.

The issue is, under the circumstances, can the bankster puppets who run Germany stear the German people down the same path, again, that led to the Weimar hyper-inflation and all the sad subsequent events.

We should see soon how this plays out.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:52 | 2516395 duckarooni
duckarooni's picture

'La Stampa claimed that the IMF could provide up to €600bn (£515bn) at a rate of 4%-5%, giving Italy 18 months to sort its finances out.'

guardian nov 2011.

I wish I knew why everythings so quiet about Italy after the furore last year. And also I wish I knew who pays up the 600bn for Italy to survive another for 18 months, because I don't rightly know, unless its Italy funding Italy's bailout of course, then it makes sense in a sort of EU speak

Or is it a bail in, not a bail out. It sounds like a bail in to me.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:40 | 2516490 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

United States provides 17% of IMF funds....that amounts to $102 Billion of the $600 Billion. These assholes have already spent our kids and grandkids future...now they are working on the great-grandkids.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:03 | 2516408 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture
"...the market is learning much, much faster than expected.."
Nope, the market is getting the shits faster than previously ..i think they call it 'fear' in old terminology ...target your Exit and plan your shortest bolting pattern to said safety zone.
Banks and Govt: the new Fukushima accidents waiting to happen
Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:05 | 2516414 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 The [ DXY ] has been pretty chop/chop on the hourly. Lot's of (FX) rebalancing in Asia and M.E. sovereigns. The {SNB} has printed chf into oblivion! Long eur/chf @ 1.2004, by the way.

   Hedged aud/jpy ( stop order) on the [aud] Industrial production #'s later. Lot's of  support below for aud/usd. If it breaks , I'm covering with aud/jpy.

                     Because the B.O.J. isn't going to do Jack Shit, on Thursday!

 

 

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:09 | 2516566 Freebird
Freebird's picture

Stupid boy

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:05 | 2516422 jmk
jmk's picture

If the Lord wanted to give this planet an enema he would insert the nozzle just north of the Arc de Triomphe.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:12 | 2516433 Gromit
Gromit's picture

Quis guarantiat guarantores?

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 00:53 | 2517057 potlatch
potlatch's picture

and who will watch the watchmen

 

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:12 | 2516434 nmewn
nmewn's picture

"Recapitalization of the banks versus funding the sovereign is of course a semantic issue given the nature of the interplay."

"... it seems to us (CS) that it probably cannot fund to the extent needed to save the credit of one (and probably  imminently two) countries that had hitherto been considered “too big so save” without joint and several guarantees."

Which can be amended or abrogated at the will or leisure of the sovereign or in joint custody/partnership with the aforementioned banks.

Tattered webs & whatnot...when the force of law (contract or otherwise) takes the form of this wet noodle, it ceases to be trusted as binding to anyone but the primary parties and the victims it hopes to ensnare.

In this case, the banks & sovereigns are the spiders.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:45 | 2516501 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

"wet noodle" indeed :)

in English, who are the flys caught in the web, the taxpayers or the subordinated bondholders?

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 06:28 | 2517234 nmewn
nmewn's picture

lol...in reality both...with the taxpayer always completely consumed by any unforseen "event".

In the land of the subordinated blind, the one eyed King still rules ;-)

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:15 | 2516442 Bob
Bob's picture

My favorite part:

Recapitalization of the banks versus funding the sovereign is of course a semantic issue given the nature of the interplay.

Damn, two months to all hell breaks loose. 

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:16 | 2516444 john_connor
john_connor's picture

If Germany backstops the whole EU then their will be a run on Bunds. With every bailout we come one step closer to a complete and total meltdown.

In other words, Nothing new here.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:23 | 2516456 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

German notes: This morning .0007% on 3 month notes!

                                          .10-100-1000-10000 0f a BASIS POINT!

 

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:28 | 2516467 john_connor
john_connor's picture

Safe haven for now. Swiss 2 year is and has been negative.

End game is US treasuries

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:32 | 2516476 Mark123
Mark123's picture

so why not just hold cash?  Do they issue $billon notes?

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:39 | 2516489 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Hold " Gold & Silver" a little platinum. The market swings are ok. Just remember that you can't "EAT" metal over extended periods of time.

              Why did " PIRATES bury their BOUNTIE' in the Sandie Beaches, of the Tropics? mispells intended , ARRRR!

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 00:53 | 2517055 potlatch
potlatch's picture

"It's zeroes all the way down...!"

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:06 | 2516562 john_connor
john_connor's picture

In a bipolar world, hold 50% cash and 50% physical gold

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:21 | 2516453 Mark123
Mark123's picture

I get the same feeling as the crazy stuff that went on in the late 90's with the internet bubble....asking how long can this go on for.  This extend and pretend goes way beyond the intenet bubble, and it will destroy the entire financial system.  The only people that will profit are the ones already making a living outside the system...organized crime (old world and new world). 

 

Lets get it over with and just start a war already.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:33 | 2516482 Jason T
Jason T's picture

this reminds me of scene in blazing saddles.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_JOGmXpe5I

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:39 | 2516487 itstippy
itstippy's picture

I miss last season's Euro Crisis! cast.  Berlusconi was outrageously entertaining with his "bunga bunga" exploits, Sarkozy was the perfect dapper little French snob, and that jolly Greek Finance Minister (Vuvuzula?) was a scene-stealer!  That was top entertainment.

This season's cast is dry as toast and the show's gone old and stale.  It's time to get rid of these drab lifeless dolts, bring back some color personalities, and pep up the script big time.  If you're just going to repeat stuff from past episodes over and over, bring back Sausage The Riot Dog!

At least we've still got original cast members Von Rompuy and Merkel.    

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:44 | 2516498 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Don't worry, I think we got many more seasons left. There's bound to be some interesting characters coming up.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:46 | 2516503 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

itstippy   

 

               The same puppet masters, with new names.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:59 | 2516509 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

this analysis is weak

"Recapitalization of the banks versus funding the sovereign is of course a semantic issue given the nature of the interplay"

not when the sovereign gets funded and santander doesn't

people wanna bet santander gets its recapitalization funded with hard money supplied by angela for collateral owned by spain?

go ahead! 

i think those billions might be better used keeping spanish checks in the mail for a while rather than benefitting what's left of the stockholders who allowed the santander banksters to rape and pillage and walk away

so that is the future of the EU?  re-capitalizing santander with german money b/c it will be on debtor-in-possession terms?  Hahahahaha!  absurd!  this isn't the USA!  this is the EU! 

if you are trying to say that timmah and christineL went into spain two weeks ago and put together a plan to save spain by recapitalizing santander with a german-supplied hard-money loan on some stuff that santander didn't already steal, why don't you just come right out and say it?

this bankster seems to be arguing that in a situ where everybody and his uncle just wants to kick the can and buy time that spainish banks' abaility to buy time via swaps may not have as lasting an effect on the credit makets as recently due to public understanding and therefore what?

they well do a mojor intervention when the swaps are due in maybe two months b/c that is half of four months and soros said 3 months, so now that's that? 

if you say so, tyler!  L0L!!!

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:03 | 2516551 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Slewie you are absolutely right! I Forgot about those Fed swaps "90 day" contracts that were done @ eur/usd 1.32 area!

  Good memory my man! i was looking at LTRO,ESM crapola. They are rolling S/T debt! 

  Nice work Slewie!

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:23 | 2516605 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

EngRISH RAW counts... as aRways...

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:33 | 2516623 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Better than " sovereign law"?  I got the joke though.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:47 | 2516660 knukles
knukles's picture

With all that EU collateral that the Bernak said they had.
Remember?
he told Congress it was collateralized....

Fuck it, it all nets out to Zero in the End.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:56 | 2516688 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

L0L!!!

hi Y/C!  I'm So Glad-Cream

i'm now entirely sure how this all works out, but timmah and christine L were in there just under 2 weeks ago, together!

i started writing about the 'script' right afetr they pulled out

nobody listens for over ten days?   not emotional enuf?  not enuf blood?  the finiMinis don't say this?  the end of the EU?  the MSM and soros and creditS didn't fuking notice?  gPap and syrizzza didn't discuss it?

now we have straw man after straw man after straw man dragged out, propped up, shot down and now it's almost tuesday and the sky is gonna fall?

almost two weeks and i've just been trying to point out that maybe some emergency safety net firewall-type swaps might ba in place if needed and i've been junked, called names, shat upon, spat upon, laughed at and ignored

where the fuk you been? 

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 23:04 | 2516775 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I be " Wee  Tarded" !

                                     Call Christine La Garde fi"or a safety net!

 

 

 

 

 

 

   Slewie I have hunch!  The markets are re-grouping.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

     I was technical Slewie! 1280 /spx style.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 01:36 | 2517103 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i've seen you around...

yeah i keep jacking that guy up unmercifully!  and christineL and her tin-cupChanel?

jacksonHole, wyoming, USA;  angela won't be there;  not too many political types but i don't think the banksters are confused about what they want to project about the EU

 

Central bankers face uneasy mood ahead of Jackson Hole economic summit you will get a kick outa this b/c it is from 2011 and NOTHING HAS CHANGED!

 

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:53 | 2516522 no cnbc cretin
no cnbc cretin's picture

You know the Web is filled with opinions, not unlike this site. I follow a lot of so called smart people on the Web.

And the world is in a very bad place, but there's also a chance the doomers are wrong. At least in their immediate time frames.

Only time will prove everything. I say, things will get very bad, but not as bad as most think.

 

I also think, if you're in you 50's, and live another 40+ years, you will be fine. Depending on how well you saved, health and otherwise.

Anyone, under 50 is going to have a very hard time.

 

 

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 23:19 | 2516897 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

"I also think, if you're in you 50's, and live another 40+ years, you will be fine. Depending on how well you saved, health and otherwise. Anyone, under 50 is going to have a very hard time."

The over 50's engineered an entitlement society in the states and if you think a deflationary collapse will leave you with all the assets and no midnight knocks on the door you may wish to cut back on the anti-anxiety meds.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 00:50 | 2517052 potlatch
potlatch's picture

If I pay a fee, will you do a custom chart? I was born at 11am, but a day late, so you have to somehow calculate that in.  What I mainly want to know is, will I ever find love?

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:54 | 2516525 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Germany is more fucked then people imagine.

17.6 % of its exports last year were cars........soon very few of us in Europe will be driving private vehicles.

Much of its other exports is boutique manufactured goods....... not a very good business plan for a global depression me thinks.

"Have you got any Bread sir" ?

Nein , not enough to export anyhow.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 22:52 | 2516832 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Extend and pretend, one day (or month) at a time.  Germany is faced with a gigantic unemployment problem if the rest of Europe stops buying their stuff.  It may be better to "sell" those cars to people that can't pay for them than face the alternative layoffs.  At least they might get a few more months before they must admit that the loans aren't getting any paybacks.

When all the prole's savings are transferred to the financial "industry" there won't be any need to extend and pretend anymore.  It will be time to leave town.  Not so different on the left side of the big pond either.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 00:48 | 2517050 potlatch
potlatch's picture

Ah, but tyhey can sell you a stainless steel, industrial design award winning, bread maker

 

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 08:06 | 2517363 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Maybe. But the hood can't even do that.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:10 | 2516570 zerotohero
zerotohero's picture

LET THEM EAT CAKE !!!

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:32 | 2516619 kill switch
kill switch's picture

Monday night music,,,

 

All along the tracks.....Gutheri Govan...For all those guitar player's out there listen and weep!!!

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7JPPTzQUKdk

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:35 | 2516626 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Our new master race of elites will never admit their Keyensian Socialism and the EU is a fraud and give up control. I think a massive global print will be done in a coordinated manner to try to paper over the blame and begin the meme for a World Bank. TARP was forced on many US banks to cover up which ones were the biggest losers and prevent runs on them.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:41 | 2516644 q99x2
q99x2's picture

If they keep bailing this thing out in two months time we're going to test our limits of reading about it.

And why does Germany want a wasteland anyhow.

They won't go for it unless they get the gold. Once they get that they'll tell them to take a hike.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:49 | 2516668 nearvana
nearvana's picture

need advice mates: how to short french bonds? ideally go long oz vs short fr? some etf there?

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:52 | 2516673 chump666
chump666's picture

Market is short again.

Evans the Fed butnut just hinted the MBS buy up.  May still slam equities despite PIMCO's all in bet.

 

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 22:34 | 2516684 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Funny how that works. I'm long to!

   Told ya so! It's just rebalancing.

    Just took profit. .9925 pivot.   Underneath 10day sma.  No more smiley faces/ Thank you!

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 22:10 | 2516722 3MonthsZHober
3MonthsZHober's picture

Sad. Long gone are the days of B9K9 and Cheeky. Now we have Yen Cross and Slewie....

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 22:24 | 2516755 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

You obviously are upset?  I am tired of trading London into " transaction tax" IDEAS!

  3MonthsZHober                    Let's get to Understand each other?

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 03:09 | 2517158 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

if you make friends with Y/C and e-mail him:  you wil get some great child porn for your hard drive.  free! 

this link is from me;  i put stuff like this up all the time;  some of it is even real;  see whatch think, ok?  and say hi to the black helicopters for us!

The Full Story Behind the Arrest of ICC Four-member Team in Libya An Australian lawyer named Melinda Taylor makes a breach to the Libyan national security and turns out to be a spy for an unknown party. She gets caught red handed, violating the Libyan people’s trust in the ICC and its employees from top down.
Mon, 06/11/2012 - 22:13 | 2516726 Mr.Kowalski
Mr.Kowalski's picture

Here's Hollande's proposals on how to fix the French economy:

France's new Socialist government is planning to ramp up the cost of laying off workers for companies in the coming months, its labour minister said on Thursday after data showed the jobless rate hit the highest level this century at 10 percent.

"The main idea is to make layoffs so expensive for companies that it's not worth it," Sapin said in an interview with France Info radio.

"It's not a question of sanctions, but workers have to have compensation at the right level," he said.

Industry Minister Arnaud Montebourg is also planning legislation that would force companies to sell plants they want to get rid of at market prices to avoid closures and job losses.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/06/hollande-about-to-wreck-france-with.html


 

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 22:28 | 2516768 twotraps
twotraps's picture

genius.  France will always be hindered by visions of world domination at all levels...Language, science, philosophy, Language, business, art, food, Lanugage and Language.  They cannot accept that the world, for all its problems, is in English and runs on dollars.  Smart money moves to London to advance economically.   IF only the world could go back to using the French Language.....we could work it all out.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 23:42 | 2516955 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

In other words....The lazier I am, the harder I am to fire!!

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 22:26 | 2516763 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

Pressing Ctrl- P is not the proper way to create new money. You can't just create money and give it to your friends and bankers. The rest of us will become angry. Money has to be borrowed to be created and BB is pushing on a string because very few people have the ability or desire to borrow more money.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 22:33 | 2516778 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Finally, France finally gets what it deserves. The days of Napoleon are long gone and Germany runs the show now.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 22:49 | 2516825 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Saw an elderly race car driver just now on a special about a huge crash at Le Mans in 1955.  He said essentially this:

'We don't care how fast we're going.  We don't even put speedometers in the cars.  We just want to know one thing: Are we in control?  As long as we are we just go faster and faster.  Until we reach the limit.  Then we balance ourselves.  That is how we make good time.'

And people wonder how this whole thing cracks up when the psychopaths have all the responsible adults taken out back and tossed off the boat.....

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 23:40 | 2516951 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Kind of like how we handle nuclear policy, eh? Good observation. 

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 23:45 | 2516967 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 re/Spectfully, Lay off the "enter" key!  Cordially YEN!

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 23:52 | 2516984 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Count the posts, look in the mirror, get back to me.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 00:16 | 2517013 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Look in the " Mirror"?  Look into the Future!

 

                          MsCreant

 

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 01:42 | 2517110 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Two of my favorite ZHers having a wee squabble....Fight Club FTW!

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 05:27 | 2517217 Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

She'll beat him over the head with his own dildo.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 00:47 | 2517049 potlatch
potlatch's picture

the wealthy do get bored, can you blame the dears?

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 22:55 | 2516826 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Imagine rolling hills?  What do you see?  

   That is trading, if you really like to do it!   Trading is awesome/ and derserves respect.

  Trading Makes ?   Don't short aud  yet.  Do it around parity.

       Target 93.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 00:08 | 2516838 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

...bullseye looks like a buddhist try'n to escape charity in Babylon. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddn-5uKH6MU 

Is it my imagination? ...or is Kristine an Amazon? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V93pamakUiE

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 23:15 | 2516882 JackT
JackT's picture

If Germany bad them all out..who will bail out Germany?

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 00:46 | 2517046 potlatch
potlatch's picture

shhhhhhh!

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 23:21 | 2516900 CuriousPasserby
CuriousPasserby's picture

The real issue is that Beck's Beer is no longer imported from Germany, it's now made in St. Louis with the other horse piss beers. How does a guy even start looking for a new beer after 20 years of being true to just one?

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 09:58 | 2517714 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

My favorite is San Miguel Dark from the Philippians. It was partially owned by MacArthur in WW2 and why he really said, "I shall return". SALUTE!

 

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 23:22 | 2516902 KarlGDenninger
KarlGDenninger's picture

test

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 23:42 | 2516959 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Excellent trolling possibilities with this one. You will never, ever, top MDB. Please try tho, I will look for you and cheer you on.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 23:24 | 2516911 glass
glass's picture

Apart from wearing yourself, wholesale snapbacks are the ideal gift for friends, family and colleagues. They are chic and cool yet, affordable; most people love them. This is one gift you wouldn't go wrong with. They can easily sport them every day and remember you, with fondness whenever they do so. If you wish to go a step further and personalize the wholesale snapback hats, you may do so. Depending on their loyalty to some sports team or affiliation to some cause, you may have their message or logo printed on the Snapbacks too. It would be very thoughtful on your behalf, and the receiver would surely cherish it.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 23:24 | 2516912 JackT
JackT's picture

But wait..didn't SocGen just say this is the best time since 2009 to buy stocks?

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 23:43 | 2516960 chump666
chump666's picture

socgen are the biggest doomers south of Citi.  they would sell you the marked up trade, then sell you into oblivion.  Risk is deteriorating at an incredible rate with a bond bubble from hell forming.  We are a few months out (or sooner) of an absolute liquidation trade to zero...if bonds crash.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 23:26 | 2516914 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Central bankers madly trying to reflate a punctured balloon.....rots of ruck there.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 23:32 | 2516934 KarlGDenninger
KarlGDenninger's picture

Gold is not the answer. NEVER HAS BEEN. ITS JUST A COMMODITY.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 23:47 | 2516971 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

What is the answer then? More Hope and Change? I have more toilet paper than I have US treasuries. I'll bet that's a good hedge to start with

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 00:17 | 2517014 wandstrasse
wandstrasse's picture

you are right, when you define 'never' as several thousand years.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 01:08 | 2517072 GoldmanSux
GoldmanSux's picture

Gold is not the answer. But it is the solution to your and my best outcome from here.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 01:32 | 2517100 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Karl

gold is a monetary asset to all central banks, as sson as they touch it it has gone from commodity status to money.

Why do they continue to buy it? Chine by the ton (>100 in April)

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 01:32 | 2517101 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Karl

gold is a monetary asset to all central banks, as sson as they touch it it has gone from commodity status to money.

Why do they continue to buy it? Chine by the ton (>100 in April)

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 23:37 | 2516945 chump666
chump666's picture

Here comes the Asian bear news...no where to hide

*Bearish comments on Japan from the IMF sparking JPY sales across the board.

USD bids in correction back on as the world econ crumbles

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 23:41 | 2516956 masterinchancery
masterinchancery's picture

Germany has 80 million people; it cannot possibly bail out the whole euro zone, or even any significant part of it.  The Spanish Subterfuge failing in less than 48 hours is the end.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 01:04 | 2517068 GoldmanSux
GoldmanSux's picture

Bravo. You have captured the essence. Germany as savior is a canard. They haven't the capacity.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 05:40 | 2517190 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Neither has the US....its all interconnected.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 08:00 | 2517341 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

I am relatively ready but i just can't see anything happen anytime soon.
Maybe because many a time I thought it will go down and nothing happened.
We are perfectly capable for 5 or 10 more years of can kicking.
I'd hate to get caught unaware of the impeding crash, but that's what will have to happen if the shit is to hit the fan soon.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 23:42 | 2516957 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I always talk about currencies. I love option trading. heck ( AAPL august calls are cheap NO?)

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 23:58 | 2516994 wanzi
wanzi's picture

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Tue, 06/12/2012 - 00:19 | 2517005 Yen Cross
Tue, 06/12/2012 - 04:46 | 2517204 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Fiat Troll!

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 00:46 | 2517041 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Thank GOD! I can maintain a margin account!

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 01:17 | 2517079 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I'm sleeping, like a " kitten following a leacky Cow".<>

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 01:49 | 2517114 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i'm laughingMao

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 01:46 | 2517112 caerus
caerus's picture

i hope that those of us not entertained in blissful irony are prepared for the collapse

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 01:52 | 2517115 chump666
chump666's picture

from wires.  ZH covered these mths ago

--Cost of Spanish funding may yet rise even more
--Subordination of bond holders under ESM rules is an issue
--Reaction in Ireland and Greece not helpful to yields

Boom.  There goes the bailout, market sells till the crazies at the Fed get all crazy with some QE3/USD swaps (the mother of swaps).

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 01:56 | 2517117 chump666
chump666's picture

for the metal heads http://youtu.be/hyWJCd1GYhw

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 02:37 | 2517153 Olympia
Olympia's picture

 

These Germans in the River Rhine are not going to get off that easy. They have scores to settle with the States that have fallen victims of them and it is certain that an ominous future lies ahead of them. The Europe they have created with lame material bought with money from usuries is falling apart and it is certain that the criminals will stand accused. It is inevitable because their deliberate mistakes have cost human lives. Humans have lost their lives as a result of the choices the criminals have made. The documents we have so far are enough to substantiate a charge against them. There are public declarations of the criminals, where they themselves confirm their criminal actions.

When a leader of a big State publicly declares that he wants – therefore through his politics will make sure – to cause extreme suffering to Greece so that other States can learn a lesson, he must know that this is a crime. Why? It is because a State is like the human organism. A serious blow can hurt but not kill it, still innumerous of its cells will die as a result of that deliberate blow. The citizens of a State are its cells.

http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.nl/2012/05/greece-among-salem-witches.html

If Merkel and Schäuble’s politics cause Greece to suffer, it is natural that its 1,700 cells will die as a result. These deaths, though, are not by natural causes. They are the result of murder, because they have been caused by someone who just wanted to hurt Greece; hurt it more than its own mistakes would. Where is the proof of what we are saying here? The proof is that after the current electoral deadlock in Greece some European officials have hastened to propose looser measures for Greece.

 

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 05:34 | 2517187 falak pema
falak pema's picture

It is prescient to see Credit Suisse now predicting the tail spin of Eurozone going into a death dive. The banking diva of the first funny money storage zone of europe says that Euro money is gonna burn as the core is now in the danger zone. Soros gave Germany three months, Credit Suisse gives France two!

Wow, and poor O'bammy who wants to get elected in the greatest crap house of them all. And its all interconnected, the banks are cringing as they see the impotence of their own shadow politicians wringing their hands in frustration. Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide, against the rising tide, as sleight of hand loses its magic touch, as thieves then bicker and fall out and burn each other's very private golden hide-out; yesterday Santander, tomorrow Paribas, day after Deutsch Bank and then things will get serious for the golden, ponzi fiatista "one square mile" of Londonista and Wall Street Bearista honey money. 

Land of the Oligarchs, crisis of western civilization, we now have to face the "denouement" of this awesome power struggle : Does feudal first World now openly bow to the Oligarchs and is the democracy and republic dead in western world. If so, goodbye Jefferson and Danton, we are but the shadow of the past and our future will look like pre-renaissance days when the Conditorris ran the world along with the Pope; who is now the HFT manipulated global market of the new Vatican. Play on Sisyphus! 

BTW : Tribune de Geneve cites a financial analyst who is as bearish as Credit Suisse :

Marchés financiers: Les très sombres prédictions du Dr Zulauf - Économie - tdg.ch

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 04:55 | 2517206 Element
Element's picture

so, "by end of summer" is still looking good for eurogeddon?

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 05:24 | 2517216 All is chosen
All is chosen's picture

I used to live in six-men-to-change-a-(street)-lightbulb-land. I still love it, but always wondered how long they could get away with it this century around. Answer: 30 years longer than my estimate.

Attention!: Expect planet-axis shifting amounts of blame & merde hurled outwards from the most over-hyped country of them all.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 05:36 | 2517220 Element
Element's picture

 
 
       "Credit Suisse's William Porter says ... Euro is completely stuffed in 2 months ... blah blah"

The cognitive dissonance at play here is that this guy is "in the market", and he's plainly already seeing as implicitly SNAFU, so why would it take two months for everyone else to realise the same obvious thing?

Why would this take two months?

I can't understand how this, "the market", can build up such a high dam-wall of denial about this, to still be failing to recognise this, almost immediately?

Clearly the underlaying processes that keep this going, regardless of the fact of gravity, and no visible means of support, is not apparent in the narratives I keep hearing about it.  Other factors are not being accounted for, for if they are, I'm not understanding these.

Could it be that the universal faith that 'money' can buy stuff is the underpinning belief that has to evaporate before the system's paper-promises can implode?  If so, actual real point of collapse can only be either,

1) when most people have no money at all,

2) or when they realise their money can't pay the bills and feed them anyway.

--

True story, I bought a box of bath soap today, regular size box but it felt very light.  I got home and found they were scalloped out and thin in the middle, almost like oblong wannabe donuts.

I don't know if or when I'll ever see a genuine bar of soap again, that has not been debased, like the oval shaped soaps, where they eliminated the corners, the hollowed out soap, and petite designed-look soap  ... all the tricks they use to make you feel more privileged ... to get less soap ...

It could be several decades ... hmmm ... hey Tyler ... you stil making 'soap' these days?

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 05:36 | 2517222 SirPlayomic
Tue, 06/12/2012 - 05:51 | 2517225 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Now compare that with an intelligent analysis of the overhanging derivatives cloud over US banking, hidden under the OTC carpet in offshore banking,  and you will have a correct picture of why the global banking Oligarchy is doomed, and we along with them, on both sides of the pond! 

These gurus always play ONE tune to serve their paymasters, never both sides of the record. What Bismarckian Merkel has done Caesar's sons in DC/WS have outdone over thirty years. There lies the rub, and it ain't purty either! In fact its ten times worse! Play on exorbitant privilege and massive military big stick as back-up of Pax Americana. The race to foggy bottom is truly on! 

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 06:45 | 2517245 IMA5U
IMA5U's picture

but today the futures are higher on rumors of "stimulus"

 

after every sell off, throw out the central planner rumor to get the shorts to cover

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 06:57 | 2517253 OhOh
OhOh's picture

I hope you all realise that the jubilation that you express may turn to fear. Once the Euro zone, the UK and japan collapse it will not stop there.

 

The US economy may be the largest, but it will fall the furthest.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 08:12 | 2517375 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

More clownist reporting by the TRIBE.  How about we turn our attention to the insolvent USA?

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 08:57 | 2517485 Minyan Vince
Minyan Vince's picture

Hendry stated we were 12 months from seeing a complete nationalization of the french banking sector when he was at the Milken Institute's Global Conference in May

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