This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Deutsche Bank: "The Spanish Recapitalization Is Not Working" - A Market Shock Is Required
This weekend, everyone's attention will be on the Greek elections, however it is Spain that has now become the "fulcrum security" of Europe. As such, events in Greece are merely a catalyst that will set off a chain of events that will have an impact not only on Spain, but on all of Europe, and thus, the world.
As we pointed out last week after the Spanish bailout announcement, based on a preliminary analysis which had been compiled by Deutsche Bank's europhiles hours before the formal announcement, and one which just happened to be a carbon-copy of what was proposed as the 'final (and failed) Spanish solution', it appears that the events in Europe are if not orchestrated by the largest German bank, then certainly receiving part-time advice.
Which is why we were somewhat disturbed to read Gilles Moec's summary this morning, which points out the patently obvious: "Spain recapitalization: it’s not working." Whether it is that Europe's brightest minds forgot about the threat of subordination (promptly reminded by Zero Hedge hours after the formal announcement), and that the scars of the Greek cramdown are still fresh in the private sector's mind, it does not matter: as DB says: "Unfortunately, the market reaction was clearly negative, with Spanish 10 year rate brushing past 7% for the first time since 1996. Two main elements probably explain the market reaction: first, the increase in public debt triggered by the recapitalization whose cost will stay on the sovereign’s balance sheet under the current rules); second the seniority attached to ESM loans, if this scheme is used as the final channel for the EU loan instead of the EFSF."
Yes, it is "unfortunate" that Spain's bailout plan was poorly planned, organized and executed. It is not unfortunate that some are still left who can do simple math and call out Europe's failed plans. Which brings us to the present, where we find that even Deutsche Bank has given up hope for interim solutions, having realized that the market will no longer accept transitory, feeble arrangements. Instead DB is now formally calling for a big bang resolution, one coming from the ECB. Here is the punchline: "ECB has room for manoeuvre, but needs political cover for a ‘big’ policy" or said otherwise, "A shock is required to get a liquidity response." In other words: Europe's only real hope for even a stop gap solution... is a wholesale market crash, not surprisingly the very same conclusion that Citi reached on May 19 when they warned that only Crossover (XO) at 1000 bps or wider could push Europe into acting...
Basically stated, anything less than a controlled market crash, one that finally gets the ECB involved with Germany's permission of course, merely pushes the market higher on nothing but hope of an intervention that said market lift makes even more improbable, as now both Citi and DB admit, which can and will lead to an uncontrolled market collapse, one from which not even the ECB will be able to extricate Europe.
In this light, will Greece simply be the start of the much overdue "controlled demolition", that will bring the ECB out of hibernation, that is paradoxically instrumental in avoiding an uncontrolled demolition, where not even the ECB will have any powers left to prevent a collapse?
Here is how Deutsche Bank sets the strawman - on the recapitalization, the market is wrong, and our advice was, well, right:
The statement by the German finance minister on Monday that he found find an ESM solution “more efficient” may have rekindled among investors the fear that the “Greek blueprint” would be replicated for Spain, with the private sector left to bear the brunt of any restructuring.
We think that the risk to Spain’s public debt sustainability, even after a EUR100bn recapitalization effort, would remain manageable under what we consider realistic assumptions on growth and interest rates (see FE Europe 8 June). Spanish public debt would remain significantly lower than in Italy and not so far above that of France, for instance.
There is always a but. And in this case, it is yet another event out of left field that will likely send spreads soaring even more than before:
However, even if we think that the long-term issues surrounding Spanish public debt are overstated, meeting the government’s refinancing needs in the next few months is getting increasingly difficult, in our view, since the ‘war chest’ accumulated by Spanish banks in the LTROs of December and February is drying up. At peak, in March 2012, Spanish banks had accumulated EUR 88.7bn on the ECB’s deposit facility. This has fallen to EUR 36.8bn in May. Spanish banks have committed to lend EUR 35bn to the regions this year to help them pay down their arrears. They need to refinance c.EUR 80bn of their own debt before the end of the year. Taking the slack from nonresidents reducing their exposure to the Spanish sovereign is going to stretch their resources further. By March 2012 (latest available data), non residents had reduced their holding of Spanish public debt to EUR 158.7bn (31.6% of the total), down EUR 6.4bn in a month and down EUR 26.1bn in a year. The valve of adjustment under the current circumstances would be to cut lending to the private sector further, thus sending domestic demand into more contraction.
In other words, "the money, it's a gone." Needless to say, the bank that will do everything to avoid the market's attention being focused on its capitalization and leverage ratio, already has a follow up plan, after its first one failed:
To unlock the Spanish situation, we think that three ingredients should be envisaged:
- Another round of long term liquidity injection by the ECB. Even if the political conditions are not met at this stage (see last section of this article), we believe that this would be the only possibility for local banks to continue to support their sovereign. Further tweaks in the collateral rules would probably be needed to ensure that banks could take full advantage of this additional round. In our view, to try to incentivize banks to re-start lending to the private sector, the rules could be changed to allow only recently originated loans to corporations, for instance.
- Announcing recourse to the EFSF rather than the ESM to recapitalize Spanish banks. This could be seen by the market as a sign that seniority is not a major preoccupation of the Europeans when dealing with Spanish bank recapitalization. This would entail a negotiation with Finland on a collateralization of its support which, given the size of the Finnish contribution, is manageable, in our view.
- Ideally, the most powerful signal would be to open the possibility for direct recapitalization of banks by the euro rescue mechanism. This could not be done via the EFSF, but is still doable for the ESM, either via a unanimous change in the list of instruments by the board (article 19 procedure), or via a revision in the treaty – which still has not been ratified by Germany - if the legal basis for an “internal modification” is too weak.
Fair enough, "Door 1" it is, as further confirmed by yesterday's statements out of Draghi, and various media leaks, that a European ZIRP may be just around the corner. There is, however, a problem with getting another LTRO out of the ECB. As Moec says, "ECB has room for manoeuvre, but needs political cover for a ‘big’ policy."
Again, from DB:
With the market unconvinced by the Spanish bank recap package and near-term prospects of an ERF unconvincing, the market will be looking to the ECB as a last resort to restore some order.
There were mixed messages from ECB President Draghi’s comments on Friday, 15 June. In his address to the annual ECB Watchers conference, he claimed the objectives of the 3Y LTRO have been “broadly met”, in particular the easing of supply constraints on private credit, but pledged to provide liquid “where needed”. He claimed economic stabilization remains the ECB’s baseline, while at the same time pointing to the weak data since the baseline was agreed and “serious downside risks” to growth. He claimed that the ECB cannot “fill holes” in the EU’s process of mending heterogeneity, but that the ECB “partly responded” to heterogeneity with the enlarged collateral pool, specifically the credit claims collateral.
And here we get to the crux of the issue, the one that has inverted the expectations outcome out of Greece, whereby if Syriza wins, the market's Pavlovian dogs are now fully expecting a global central bank intervention, aka the Bank. Should Syriza disappoint and Greece end up ungoverned, or paradoxically get a pro-Europe government, the lack of response will likely result in a risk off mood come Monday especially since the entire upward move in the past week was purely short covering on fears of monetary policy response:
A shock is required to get a liquidity response
Draghi discussed the concept of “adequate liquidity” on Friday. He differentiated between normal times, when the volume of liquidity is determined by banks’ obligatory reserve requirements and other autonomous factors, and times of financial instability, when the central bank must counteract bank funding market tensions and “systemic consequences”. Financial stability is an ECB responsibility. Compared to the comments from Draghi at the 6 June press conference, when the hurdles to more liquidity seemed high, there is more of a sense of ‘readiness to act’. That this message came right at the start of Draghi’s address to the ECB Watchers conference implies the importance of the ‘readiness’ message. The full allotment regime remains in place. Banks can get as much liquidity as they require for one week and for three months. The 3Y LTRO Draghi describes as having “broadly met” its objectives, specifically, easing credit constraints. He admitted it would take longer to judge full success (a flow of credit to the private sector), but demand may be weak. We have highlighted the importance of the next ECB Bank Lending Survey on 25 July of the ECB’s judgment regarding the need for additional vLTROs. It is possible in the context of more disorderly market scenarios that the ECB pre-empts the BLS to reengage the vLTRO policy which has, in Draghi’s view, already ‘broadly’ worked in similar market conditions.
And there you have it: if have more "disorderly market scenarios" read market crash, but not terminal crash, then ECB brings out the firepower.
Anything less, and everyone will be disappointed as it merely enforces the continuation of a now failing, and obvious to all, status quo, one which sees Spanish bond yields leaking ever wider, until Italy too finds itself beyond the dreaded 7% barrier.
Will Greece be the catalyst to bring on this much needed response from the Central Banks? Or will Greece "muddle through" for however many weeks before it needs another bailout, and/or finally throws in the towel, while the global central banks do nothing?
Find out on Sunday night.
- 36869 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -


Well, Hanlon's Razor and whatnot.
However, having worked in government, >>shudder<< there is plenty of malice to go around. On the other hand, I think groups of highly self-interested bureaucrats become self organizing, kind of like cancer.
Does cancer know what it's doing?
Bureaucrats have about that level of intelligence.
True. And they don't think of it as conspiracy; they think of it as strategic planning. It's only conspiracy when your agenda isn't included.
I wholeheartedly agree with you.
There is an elephant in the room, which I think most Zhedgers secretly dread as I certainly do: a future in which nothing changes. The can is kicked down the road, and if it cannot be kicked, a new can is created from the ashes of the old one, ready for further kicking. Hiccups, screwups, scandals,"revolutions", wars? Very possibly. And then back to the "old normal".
The truly sad part is that there is probably no conspiracy at work, just a web of consequences. Bureaucracy can only beget bureaucracy.
Can this be changed? Absolutely. We need a strong ruler, one whose ethics, logic and effectiveness are unquestionable, one who can solve the unsolvable, fix Humpty Dumpty and keep the cost of entertainment down. Who is this Savior? Skynet, bitchez :)
Apologies if this sounds a bit depressing for a weekend.
This is so true. "Bureaucracy can only beget bureaucracy." I never thought about it that way before now.
Double post removed.
@MsC
I could never have believed it would go down like this. The policy response from Washington has not only NOT helped, it has exacerbated the existing problems and provided cover for the lawlessness. Not only are we no better off than 2009, we are in fact much worse; yet, the American (and mostly European) public have trudged along, passively accepting the decline in living. If all one did was read the headlines and watch news reports, one may not perceive the social decline we are undergoing. One in seven on food stamps and structural unemployment. The loss of individual initative and most people looking to the state for answers. People are surviving, but the world is much grimmer and getting moreso by the day. Hope you are well. Stay safe.
I can feel the world changing around me. Things that seemed important a few years ago mean nothing today. The state can never provide answers. It is always up to the individual to do what they believe must be done.
When banks report BILLIONS in profits and executives are making $10,000,000 or more which is 300x what the average American makes, you don't need to get even any bigger numbers to illustrate the point. That's comparable to the incomes of Aristocrats frolicking in Versailles all the while the population was starving. No difference.
How is that reasonable in any context to compensate one or more individuals in a large corporation those amounts of money? Other than the fact that the money is worthless already and we just haven't gotten the official memo.
Do you have any confidence in money when a small group of people has made themselves multimillion Dollar paydays every year based on ficticious accounting entries? The money isn't organically generated with the production or sales of their wares. It's synthetic compensation and synthetic wealth based on trillions of hot money out of thin air that's wandered into the stock markets and the insiders sold to the Fed. Probably to keep their mouth shut and support the ponzi scam.
The group of traitors is much larger than just the cabal on Wall Street.
This week had such a stench of desperation to me. After the markets called bullshit on the spailout Monday it looked like all hands on deck by TPTB to hype up this bloated pig the rest of the week. Now if Gold skyrocketed out of its downtrend channel I might give this "risk rally" more credence but it didn't. Leading the little pigs off the plank to get slaughtered yet again?
Sometimes I think the PTB set up the EU to Fail. Out of the resultant failure (including US$ crash) they pop up and announce this "Great Idea" to place all currencies under a single currency, or as the UN maps shown on some conspiracy sites, placing the world under 10 Regions. Each Region would have its own currency (Amero, new Euro, etc.)
That would make it easier to then consolidate all currencies into 1 Digital Format.
Of course, recalcitrant nations (Iran) would have to be subverted, lest they get any ideas about their own gold-backed currency. That was the primary reason Libya went down, as Moamar was going to begin issuing Gold Dinars. Gee, wonder where all his GLD went after the overthrow. Maybe to the Red Shield vault?
TPTB, as hubristic as they are, would be happy to use their personal NATO/US military to subdue those who do not wish to be controlled.
As a byproduct, millions of useless eaters (Georgia Guidestones) would be vaporized while TPTB watch from their secure bunkers.
Let's wait and see what evil plans they have in store for us. Their disregard for human life is not just evil, it is Satanic!
They always knew it would fail when push came to shove. But it was good for the getting while it lasted.
No, and no agin.
"I like to like of it as three major major banks...Deutsche Bank in Germany, Barclays in London, and JP Morgan in the United States....they work together; they always work together..." Jim Willie.
The very notion that there are "analysts" - who analyze "markets"- on behalf of "corporations" - so that "investors" can gain the "intelligence" necessary to make "rational" decisions as to where to place "their" $...is at this point\some 8 months in from MFG and counting\
...so laughably naive that the only comparable assertion to match the fairy tale quality of such a ridiculous storyline would be that...
Koran Kuoting, Bedsheet Wearing Bedouins, with Boxcuttin Blades took down the Towers....cause they hated somebody er others' 'freedoms'....
this is gettin too bizarre even for cartoon reality...
DeutscheBank is part of a Kabal of Khazarian Kosher weirdos who seek to Konduct a Kontrolled Demolition of Euro-merikan societies....everything that they say is worded towards that end...and none of these players depend in the least upon 'markets', performance, investors, real trading, or any other of the arcane concepts of the dupes who believe their storyline about free market Kapitalism...because their "kapital" komes from laundered drugs, arms, an human trafficking...the only "free" markets left.
+1 The other memorable Willie quote about QE - " like administering a blood transfusion to a cadaver"
Yeah, yeah, got it; just as a 'new Pearl Harbor' was the prescribed catalyzing event toward military modernatization. Same sociopathic methodology, different day.
Captain Obvious award. NOTHING is working.
In the US, the powerhouse of the west, M1 Money Multiplier remains below 1,0 (BAD!) and M2Velocity has crashed and burned. MONETARY POLICY IS DEAD In the USA.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/06/13/feds-operation-twist-what-did-it-accomplish/
So why would DB think ECB policies will work?
And how does any alphabet soup funding of Euro banks be it ECB, EFSF, ESM or ENEMA help existing creditors of those banks? Stronger deposit insurance, bail-ins, co-co bonds, you name it it all seems custom made to dry up any private funding for Europes banks.
It helps the creditors because it lets them grab what's left to mooch off of a failed system. It's like the swirling of the water going down a flushing toilet. They don't want to let it stop or give up control until it's been totally flushed down the drain.
Do you really believe there's such a thing as a TBTF "Creditor"?
Why would the central bankers require a market shock when the economy is recovering?
When the economy recovers, whether the market collapses or rallies, the central bankers (ECB and FED) would still have to grab the opportunity to announce another round of QE (giving the false impression that QE takes the credit in market recovery).
The stock market does not need to collapse when everyone is already piling into treasuries.
Announcing another round of QE would be fitting in light of record low treasury yields, regardless of market collapse or otherwise.
They need total financial Fear, Shock,and Awe to effect their ends.
>A tweak to collateral rules would be needed to ensure banks could take full advantage of this additional round".
Like what...?
Taking "dirt" for collateral.?
Too fucking funny....
Delusional FuckTards.
They already take dirt, just at marked to model prices. Actually, they will take promises of dirt, rehypothecated dirt, even.
The tweak should be seriously rich tho, eh?
I think you'll find that mud is better long term than dirt. You can build houses with mud.
Like what...?
Taking "dirt" for collateral.?
********
The level 3 bad banks are loaded with now marketable "unmarked collateral"
The BOE ie: (Brit taxpayers) are accepting it-
*************
The pound shed some 0.3% against the dollar, trading to a low $1.5477 and the euro surged to the day’s high of £0.8152 as London traders digested the news that the Bank of England will launch its first auction as part of a series of emergency liquidity measures that will offer six-month loans to U.K. banks in exchange for a wide range of collateral.
http://www.riskreversal.com/2012/06/15/whats-the-story-greece-is-the-word/
Don't you just love these guys?
Are "wild geese" some kind of derivates?
"In 2012, the pandemic that the world had been
anticipating for years finally hit. Unlike 2009’s
H1N1, this new influenza strain — originating
from wild geese — was extremely virulent and
deadly. Even the most pandemic-prepared
nations were quickly overwhelmed when the
virus streaked around the world, infecting nearly
20 percent of the global population and killing
8 million in just seven months, the majority of
them healthy young adults. The pandemic also
had a deadly effect on economies: international
mobility of both people and goods screeched to
a halt, debilitating industries like tourism and
breaking global supply chains. Even locally,
normally bustling shops and office buildings sat
empty for months, devoid of both employees
and customers."
http://img854.imageshack.us/img854/5363/rockfellerfoundationpre.pdf
50/50 chance that a breaking news whistleblower type scandal will be forthcoming on the ZeroHedge website soon.
It's been a while since the last one.
A cartoon of 2 guys looking at a crushed car block and one says," Sure, it'll cost a few bucks to restore it, but it's a classic."
Long live Chaos!
Appears to be the only way out for most. We are so screwed, both in Europe and here in America. We are standing in line waiting for our turn behind Europe.
To unlock the Spanish situation, we think that three ingredients should be envisaged:
Another round of long term liquidity injection by the ECB
Hah, that's a good one. Their solution is to give more candy to the diabetic. The half-life of liquidity injections just keeps getting shorter and shorter, but give us banks another one.
How to breed contempt!
'roller-coaster rumors nicely timed... merry-go-round hypothetical's bandied about with no exit to be found... pragmatist muzzled and abandoned in the horrific hall-of-mirrors... bravado and chivalry emasculated by a three-ring-toss... soros playing whack-a-mole with the troika... underfunded receipts from once enthusiastic participants wanes exponentially... cotton candy having lost its appeal - the popcorn is all but greece'd kernels lacking a pop, never more... whilst, the candied-apple ceases to spy upon the once glaring fondness of a nostalgic sweet tooth... when reality is about to bite-down-hard on a fantasia pan-euroland pretzel gone terribly flat and tasteless, while casting about rancid peanuts from the elephants beneath the big-top-room refusing to consume the sanity from the totally insane!'
Summary: 'liquidity always reaches its own level' --- unless the laws of physics have changed overnight, which i think not, we are in for a 'whip-saw-shock'... 'Next Week'- a surprise brought on by rumors and anti-rumors to the point where the market must take its anti-psychosis/ schizophrenia medicine. jmo
Reminds me of old Hank Paulson and our CONgress passing the bailouts because of the "crisis".
Engineered fianancial calamity for the sole purpose of robbing the little people via sovereigns.
Banker Blitzkrieg; Stukas and Panzers replaced by MBS, CDS, and Robot algo trades.
Too funny these banks beg for "shock", more money printing, more papering over bad debts etc. As these past yrs show, the banks have got their "shocks" followed by loud cheering. The results are just more bubbles in asset prices while the real economy continues to deteriorate at an increasing speed. When one intervention wears off, the same begging for same failed policies start again. Wash, rinse, repeat. Capital misallocation continues, resulting in even more bad debts and increases the begging for more "schocks". It's a vicious circle and if it continues one day we will be staring into the abyss. Last dose of the same failed policies will finally have negative effect on asset prices and then the uncontrolled collapse begins. Fiat system will collapse.
In a recent interview for his newest book Aftershock, Wiedemer says, “The data is clear, 50% unemployment, a 90% stock market drop, and 100% annual inflation . . . starting in 2012.”
Read more: Faber: '100% Chance' of Global Recession A little stale but looks like still relevant. The ZH also posted his forecast but I could not find it.I guess the "shock" of impoverishing 99.9% of the world wasn't quite enough.
Wow. Deutsche bank guys are so wise.
We've been saying this it's been since November 2011 when they came out with LTRO and stopped the MUCH NEEDED CRASH.
It's quite simple: If Primary Dealers (DB is one) own ALL THE MARKET, hence there is NO MARKET.
Then there are LITERALLY only two options left:
1) Convert the current system into something similar to SOVIET UNION in a literal way.
2) Allow 3-4 Primary Dealers to collapse so their holdings get wiped out and prices collapse, so prices become affordable, so WE HAVE MARKET. Remember: VOLATILITY IS NOT RISK. It's all about the price.
Number 1 is impossible.
Number 2 has been happening since 2008. So far 3 Primary Dealers have been crapitized like Bear Stearns, Lehman, MF Global. This year and next year we'll have to have another 3 going towards crapitization.
Note: CRAPITIZATION is a word I have invented.
crapitization gives me great irrational urges which I find difficult to interpret. Its like being in two places at once!
Watch Finland.
This all traces back to globalists taking advantage of "the obama moment" when the global elite have a sitting US president that is in favor of multi-lateral solutions. Never let a crisis (or a manchurian candidate) go to waste...
Every american president from Nixon to Reagan was in favour of the Kissinger strategy of globalised trilateral balance of power. That was the legacy of nuclear cuban stalemate.
Reagan changed that, but after 1991 NWO and USSR collapse, US went into outsourcing bigtime and this completed the first phase of trilateral play; after Cuba nuclear stalemate period, around the Kissinger oil patch strategy; by making it now Chindia dependent to enrichen the Oligarchs. Whereas in the past it was only oil/MIC oligarchy fueled upto the 1991 NWO decree in post-USSr collapse.
As the Oil lobby of Bush + MIC lobby of Cheney/Rumsfeld locked more deeply into the ME (oil + mlitary) adventure against world terrorism, the new evil empire, the outsourcing brought about the financialised addiction to debt, to Chindia products and to cheap consumerism gone viral, leading to Bush 2008 meltdown.
Don't limit your rant to Obama, he is just the messenger boy of NWO + Outsourcing WS levitation + Oil lobby of ME oligarchs. This thing is much deeper and locked in than a Kenyan son's opportunistic capture of a political job which is POTUS only in name; not in substance. The Oligarchy owns the US political class, red and blue.
Why did they create the European Union in the first place?
To destry nations and cultures.
They also destroy family and religion.
Greek "Smegma" Election slaps Euro Fucks up the sides of their pointy heads ! How many times are we going to count the deck chairs on the Titanic ? Socialism is sinking on a massive scale....faster than the Media can blame Capitalism ! That's not funny to you ? WTF ? Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Euro Watch Tour
When I see more Somalis wading ashore in North Korea than Haitians in Miami....I'll retire....my work here on Earth is done ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Socialist Shock Fuck Tour
you can really deconstruct the bais in the sayings and what is justa ssumed to be true when it is self serving, and how that self serving view has come to be adopted as true.
1) assumption not correct that saving the euro zome means saving the current banking structure/ system. somehow the two have come to mean the same thing. they aren't. But the way the discourse is tructured you'd think it was one and the same. I'd argue that is is in fact the opposite qand saving the euro depends on getting rid of the current banking system, because the people are going to get so sick of the bankers, they will bail on the euro.
you don't see a single elite say to save the euro we must blow up the banking system and reform it. they don't say we need to wipe out those stupid enough to make bad loans. No saving the euro means saving the bankers from loosing money (LOL)
the next thing they talk about market shocks. to whom the 24 % greek unemployed who can't get medicine and die. Ot the bankers.
there are all these faulty statements by the elites that go into the system unquestioned .
duh not working. burden spain with another 100 billion taxpeyer debt to bail out banks and bond yeilds rise. of course they do they just added 100 billion on the taxpeyers back for the bankers. increase debt burden in a place where yeilds rise as debt burden increases and yeilds rise. the spain bailout wasn't designed to help. it was to swhit bankers crap onto the public, and that has been the solution to it all so far. that's why it isn't working. bail out the public, screw the bankers the recovery will happen fast. but the elites will always bail themselves out
Nothing bad will be allowed to happen.
TPTB will do whatever is necessary to keep all the boats afloat, a little here, a little there.
No real "shock" is needed.
We'll just "Muddle Through" just as the Grey-Poupon toting, Mauldin predicted.
No wonder that guy is always invited to Davos, Jackson Hole, etc.
He always stays in the middle of the road, never upsets anybody.
So far, he's the only "expert" who has been exactly correct.
No wonder that guy is always invited to Davos, Jackson Hole, etc.
He always stays in the middle of the road, never upsets anybody.
So far, he's the only "expert" who has been exactly correct.
***********
Yes it's no wonder the Keynesian fools that meet at Jackson hole would invite Mauldin-
********
"Now, there is no exact way to determine the right size of the money supply. It definitely needs to grow each year by at least the growth in the size of the economy, the population, and productivity, or deflation will appear. But if money supply grows too much then you have inflation.
If velocity does slow by another 10%, then money supply (M) would have to rise by 10% just to maintain a static economy."
http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/thoughts_from_the_frontline/archiv...
**********
Funny thing how the money supply has been tripled-bank reserves have tripled and yet velocity has collapsed-
When genius fails?
shark attack!
see ya, R_T!
Don't blame the Grey Poupon Gravitas French....they get it....and revealed their leadership style to us by electing a Hollandaise Sauce Master Perturbater ! The French are so cool....when are we going to recognize their place in history ? Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad I'm Training A Jar Of Snails To Be My Recyclable TP ! The key is a strict Veegan diet that appeals to the snail's tastes ! In addition to circling your anus....they will clean the bowl between flushes ? I'm thinking of building little VIP Snail "Sky Box" Condos around and under the rim....where they can retreat to when day is done ! My geneticists are busy with omnivore snails for BMBFHA (Bidet Meat Based Femine Hygiene Apps)....later they retire to serve humanity once again with garlic/butter sauce !
I believe some of the individuals who swore an oath to protect and defend the Constitution against all enemies foreign and domestic are about to drop the hammer on the domestic pen-wielding ones.. this month, maybe as late as July or August. It's high time to separate the oath keepers from the oath fakers. http://tinyurl.com/cd5cyjo/
here's the situation as the Duke sees it:
Greece is a lot like Griffen Dunne standing outside of a downtown NYC club just dying to get in:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RCrrWfJcsLc
and finally, Greece (Griffin) gets its wish fulfilled, finally realizing to its horror the cost of entry
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sToQzWUgm2o
Mohawk that state!
If the retail has already left the "markets" and its only algos playing with each other AND the markets are manipulated ... How will they deliver the "shock" DB is talking about?
Switch off the HFTs or let the markets have a price discovery, which should be way down as lot of us here believe?
Seize the bank accounts of the "retail" investors?
Etc.. etc.. ???
Spirit of America
“On the surface, which seems more believable? The belief in God or the belief that at one point, all matter in the entire universe - every atom and molecule - was condensed into a tiny ball?” N Sparks
The answer is actually both, but that is something you must learn for yourself, through experience, to make your autonomous system work for you, instead of against you. From God’s perspective, the earth is still primordial ooze, and humanity is a primitive creature, attempting to emerge.
That DNA churn pool is an extremely powerful black hole, from which little escapes. Both the body and the intellect are its prisoner. On the one hand, earth reality requires you to engage it in a symbiotic relationship, but, on the other, there is no support system like earth to suckle you in space. The empire, which is merely a virtual dc bridge, acts accordingly.
Only through the spirit do you stand a chance to scratch the surface of space exploration. You must prepare to be successful assuming that you will be, where others have failed. You can’t do that by accepting the false assumptions of the virtual bridge you see before you, gained by body and intellect. The empire is a gravitational extension of earth. It’s just a task master. You learn by doing, not by reading or talking about what you read. What not to do does not tell you what to do.
You cannot blame your parents, those around you, or any particular government iteration, and be successful. The spirit is always a work in progress, constantly being pulled back into the churn pool when it fails to escape gravity, extending gravity in a symbiotic relationship. That is the universe, in which your body and mind reside.
What you require is a platform, from the as-is to the to-be. Work from both ends, with intelligent trial and error, your spirit as the feedback measurement, and the empire as the resistance measurement device. Blaming the robots around you for being robots is like yelling at a rock for being a rock, instead of employing it as a propellant.
Make gravity your friend, not your enemy. The enemy of your enemy is your friend. Peer pressure is only your enemy when you choose it for yourself and expect others to behave differently. We build empires for a reason, and it is never the one assumed by any particular robot or group of robots. You can turn an aircraft carrier on a dime and project it into space, but it’s a counter-intuitive process relative to your body and mind.
God is not responsible for tyranny. We do that to ourselves, by expecting others to do something we can only do for ourselves. The system guarantees that you are unique and have choice. Employ yourself accordingly and everything else will take care of itself. Gravity guarantees the outcome.
Don’t spend 90% of your disinterested time pleasing the empire and expect a happy outcome, when 10% of your interested time will do. Don’t busy yourself with busy work is a good way to begin. Look at income and its relationship to reality, return on labor, History.
Do you really think it is possible to pay yourself too much AND the police too little? What is the relationship between Oprah’s bank account and police pensions?
Let Germany hang itself, and take Chicago with it. They make windshield wipers and fluid for a reason.
who coulda node?
[bankster}: To unlock the Spanish situation, we think that three ingredients should be envisaged:
Another round of long term liquidity injection by the ECB. Even if the political conditions are not met at this stage {end]
how fuking easy is this? L0L!!!
Based on my analysis of reading articles, I have determined Europe must print an additional 9 trillion euros to save the euros. This is not disimilar to TARP or TALF, yet they have yet to implement it. Until they do the markets will be extremely volatile. Not to say I wouldn't enjoy a huge crash, because it would create a buying opportunity (because the computers would surely fuck up the market like they have in the past), but I do not want to see this happen. On the flip side, Europe and the rest of the world realizes the catastrophes a "Lehman" style collapse would start, therefore will do everything in its power to save Greece. The Greek people know this, and will milk it just like they lied to get into the Euro, plus the Germans have already begun funding them which is actually the main cause of the problem. Had they figured out Greece was going to be a fuck up none of this would have ever happened, so some of the blame goes to Germany and the rest of the Eurozone for not doing their homework. Now the only question is. Do you stop the bleeding now, when the world / Europe is already in a bad position to limit loses or later.
And, as such, even if "Lehman" did not fail and cause a market catastrophe, would TARP and TALF still be implemented? The answer is probably yes, it would have even had Lehman not failed. Lehman was the excuse for TARP and TALF, the scapegoat; the fall guy. If you prosecute Lehman you have to prosecute every banker in the world, which cannot happen. Captialism dictates "If everybody is doing it, it is not illegal", you get the point, therefore no real competition exits only between small variances in brand loyalty and slight differences in quality because if one guy does it the other has to to survive. Put it this way, if Countrywide starts giving out mortgages to every NINJA out there Bank of America has to do it to because otherwise they will lose market share and eventually crumble. The systemic failure was incompetence just like 911, therefore the policy makers had to correct the wrong.
The problem with Greece versus Lehman though is entirely different because Lehman was just a little bank Greece is an entire country with millions of people. That is why nobody seems to know what to do.
A company worth some 650 billion in debt should not make the S&P go down 50 percent. Therefore the computer systems irrationally price things and as long as the computers are in control of the market and treat stocks like commodities which only valuable piece of information is "News", we are seriously screwed.
Eu nations needs to invest in Teleprompters. See how the USSA is. Teleprompter does a good job. So does a fucking Mormon .
O fuck. Coming soon to the USSA. Meanwhile watch TV and Live beter, Shop at WMT.
IMF urges Spain to lower the salaries of officials, and the tax increase and eliminate the deduction for housing
http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&i...
I don't get my ZH highs of this boring crap, Spain and Greece is old news.
Bring in Italy already, give me Berlu and his hooker orchestra and get this party started!
To be serious, I'm frigging scared about the real possibility that next year I'm an old fuck without job while the bankers are robbing the kitchen sink before all is over.
14 million euro to a bankster in compensation for fucking up Spains banking system, that is the reality.
Thankfully you have some tough politicos in US who can really grill the ass of types like Dimon.
I mean, he's "HUGE" and they fearlessly sucked it anyway, brave men.
Due to overintake of beer and cigs I can't remember any math beyond 3rd grade, but that's enough, it is ridiculously easy to see that most coutries in europe are fucked, that includes the stellar Germans, or are they going to ask the French to pay the huge debts of their states and banks?
Fuck this, I'll take a Corona and cig and sink my fat ass in the pool.
Have a great weekend all ZH'ers.
Thank you & brgds
Its like a big party. And we're not invited.
Time to listen to George (Carlin) again.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Rentenmark
http://www.econ.puc-rio.br/pdf/TD159.pdf
When Germany is in crisis they apply one solution (RENTENMARK), when Greece is in crisis they advice austerity
read about RENTENMARK IT IS GREAT system against FIAT money
The Rentenmark was only a temporary currency and was not legal tender. It was, however, accepted by the population and effectively stopped the inflation.
http://www.econ.puc-rio.br/gfranco/Ch10.PDF - the most colossal thing of its kind in history
http://www.usagold.com/germannightmare.html
"Controlled collapse." Yeah. Right.
http://www.infowars.com/swedish-left-party-chapter-wants-to-make-urinati...
personally, i won't stand for this!
The bond market gets it Tyler. Spanish Yields/spreads The credit markets are living in " Gumby Land"
If the market were not made of bullshit a collapse would not be possible.
Is Germany prepared to use force within Greece to enforce austerity? An association of independent German foreign policy journalists and social scientists considers this possibility...
On the Relevance of Democracy2012/05/21
http://www.german-foreign-policy.com/en/fulltext/58304
Sick.
Agreed. But could it explain why Greece has bought over 15 million euros of tank rounds for the 400 tanks the Americans gave them for FREE? Or perhaps the tanks are just a hedge against any mischief by the Turks...
American Tanks Provided to Greece for FreeApril 10, 2012
http://www.defencegreece.com/index.php/2012/04/american-tanks-provided-to-greece-for-free/
And now for something completely different:
"No one expects the Spanish Recapitalization" ...to work.
Oh, one more thing -- seems bitcoin has been spiking lately, and quite probably caused by Eurodollar-runs from the EU and environs (See trading volumes at Mt.Gox and others).
We're now back near early January prices, above 6.00 BTC/USD. This is a real test, because it means any capital controls can be circumvented, unless they (EU countries) prevent people from buying bitcoin outright.
So, it seems the flow is storing wealth in bitcoin and not 'cashing out' to another currency just yet. This will be quite interesting to observe through the outcome of the Greek vote.
I still maintain bitcoin is the only way (other than precious metals), to stick it to the banking parasites.
Ahhh, I dunno. It's still 1's and 0's on disc drives somewhere.
Good counter-argument, but you can make them physical. People already have been printing out the cryptographic hashes that make up their balance and storing them in safes.
The best of both worlds would be a minted coin containing dual-value, but I'm getting ahead of myself here. A new development here is promising, though:
http://bitcoincard.org/product/
Is it me, or did this article read like section V of PNAC (Project for a New American Century) before 9/11?
("Further, the process of transformation, even if it brings revolutionary change, is likely to be a long one, absent some catastrophic and catalyzing event––like a new Pearl Harbor")
I suppose that was deliberate, including the phrase "(un)controlled demolition" and others that gave me goosebumps. Anyway, it's not a bad analysis of DB's typical call for more liquidity - hell, all the banks are doing that every other day. As I recently posted on Bruce Krasting's article which mysteriously seems to have disappeared, a "Shock and Awe" Blitzkrieg from the central banks might well be a combination of defaults (Greece, and a few of banks) to give reason and impetus for large scale printing that will pauperise almost everyone on the planet.
BREAKING: GREEK BANKS DECLARE ‘HOLIDAY’
There are no PTB and there are no solutions possible other than collapse. What is easier to believe; an omniscient and secret cabal capable of global influence , or the global rise of dangerously incompetent politicians ?
The problems have gotten too far out of hand. Collapse is coming. It will not be controlled but it will clear the decks for eventual growth.
Brink Of Bankruptcy? University Of Honk Kong Professor:”In China Every Province Is A Greece”http://govtslaves.info/brink-of-bankruptcyuniversity-of-honk-kong-professorin-china-every-province-is-a-greece/?preview=true&preview_id=10876&preview_nonce=2e3b595bb2
I don't grasp what this moron is saying. If there are no banks or bank deposits, no big deal. People make money providing goods and services. People buy what they need to live and then put excess money under mattress, in jars out in yard, or buy physical assets with it. Need a loan, go see friendly neighborhood loan shark, relatives, or friends. These bankster assholes think they are oxygen.
It's clear you don't grasp it. And forgive my amateurish explanation, I think it's correct... Money is loaned into existence. If the loans are extinguished you drastically reduce the money supply. So, if every entity in debt started paying it down, soon, there would be no money supply left because the interest attached to the money doesn't exist, and can't possibly exist without an ever expanding pool of debt. I believe at this state of the game, you would run out of money in the system before paying down every entity's debt. This fun concept is also why when any pol claims he can reduce our debt, he's lying. Watch the deflationary death spiral hit if this is even attempted...
basically, technically speaking you can make a cooperative structure built on electronic money generated by, say a municipality, a political elected accountable structure which is transparent, that is interest free. But it will entail fixed and variable costs to service it by the users, who on top of it will have to build a reserve fund to pay out insurance in case of user defaults to protect all the others who trade with him. Such a system is viable if the deposit accounts it runs for individual users are interest free also. The electronic money supply needs will be limited to the sum of deposits, aka previous transaction surplus value left in system, insurance funding back-up and thats it; as electronic money supply has no requirements for its own needs. The oxygen in the system can then be geared to expand depending on a fixed circulation to deposit ratio. All speculative, true capitalistic ventures can be run by a separate investment banking system, whereby people bring into the system hard assets as collateral to fund their future investments by asking for capital inputs from users who believe in their capitalistic venture. Bottom line : an electronic deposit bank and an electronic venture capital or investment bank are all possible on a NO Interest and no fractional reserve banking basis. Provided the asset base is hard assets and there is a realisitic fix to electronic money in circulation and capital accumulation; aka the velocity of MS is controlled within acceptable limits, relative to the risk profile of the ventures.
Risk n return the basis of capital formation decision making.
Wall Street Monkeys will U.N.SEAL the treasure of the black hole and charge you for the crime, but,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DngPCSxAorc
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WGZR6kdeGU&feature=related
...it will end up costing a Lot(<--Sodom, as in the days of Noah,lol) ...more than just love loss, like a woman's love for a city that caused her husband to offer up her virgin daughters for sex rather than strangers should suffer the indignation.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHTELQ9i4yM <--1984(ironic, lol) ''Building The Perfect Beast''(LMAO, beyond)
http://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Luke+21&version=KJV
The SPX is set to make a big reversal soon according to our Elliott Wave analysis. Premium content available at www.marketoverflow.com
The EURUSD continues to show weakness despite this retracement higher. Our wave count suggests the trend remains to be down. http://bit.ly/LcZrN8
Rally warning continues...
SPX and EURUSD bullish daily chart strengthened further on Friday & more rally expected.
16.06.2012
Ending the ‘Zero-sum game’(dilemma) in Greece
This article suggest simple and effective methods to solve for the Greek tragedy of our times, by means of diagnosing the illness down to its causes
and then offering available simple measures for unwinding these malignancies.
The present day Greek crisis comprises a socio-economic dilemma consists of
a couple of ‘Zero-sum Game’, where resourcing for one critical need comes on the expense of another critical need. These dilemmas compound each other to form concrete threats to the socio-economic stability on continental and global scales.
One of those Dilemmas concerns the monetary constraints, with the supply of currency is subjected on the one hand to heavy interest by the global banking cabal, headquartered in Wall-street, and on the other hand is subjected to depletion(“vacuuming”) by means of VAT – a “skull tax” like system which targets the foundation of socio-economics in the flesh.
The other Dilemmas concerns the need to protect the country itself,
i.e. the stability and the natural resources, while all such funding must
come on the expense of other critical matters, given the above
VAT-vs-Interest constraint and aggravating its impact further.
Greece may implement a most effective measure for the sake of
'implicit_default-while-effective_recovery', by means of eradicating its VAT.
VAT is quite like a skull-tax or a carbon tax, i.e. inhumane thus its annihilation
should be the first and most target of economic public protection.
This is because the monetary policy of currency-starvation is two folds:
On the one hand, the thraldom-of-interest on money issuance causes the crisis altogether. On the other hand, VAT depletes the currency supply exactly where it is needed most: at the end user's hand-to-mouth in-the-flesh economy.
While combating the thraldom-of-issuance requires addressing explicitly and directly the cartel of interest i.e. taking the global banksterite genocidal mafia head-on, then curbing the VAT rather a matter of social-welfare, which this time is implemented in the most effective, just and economic sense.
The military dilemma
The concentration of the ~1/4 million US military personnel from around Europe in Greece may bring some $25 Billion p.a. to that country,
thus saving it financially for the long run, without a threat to French banks or to German pensions. The U.S. GAO (Government Accountability Office) claimed:
"245,000 beneficiaries in U.S. European Command",
where the cost of a single brigade, i.e. at about 11,000 personnel,
is at about $100m p.a.:
www.armytimes.com/news/2010/09/army-brigades-in-europe-cost-billions-093010w/
Zero-sum games are coupled with immorality
1. A Zero-sum game yields immorality,
e.g. arid environments give a great survivability advantage
to evil people.
2. Immorality leads to perpetrating zero-sum games,
e.g. web-sites for on-line 'deals', where the unsuspecting users
are bound to loose in a rigged game the kind of a Casino.
Since zero-sum games are the presence of evil, then it is very clear they must be unwound entirely, i.e. to the point of dissolving them entirely,
thus urgently – while the physical damage is still manageable,
containable and corrigible.
Nice summary of the list of econo-lies the little-people and bread-winners are battling with daily:
Or; "Why zombie politicians and their dipshit cheerleaders at rallies, waving dopey lies upon facetious placards, whilst chanting moronic slogans and applauding like trained chimps, are an insult to every bread-winner who knows with the clarity of daily observation that these are all calculated fraudulent self-aggrandising spectacles, for the devious worship of false-solutions, and broken promises, under the concocted cover of short, distracted and confused memories, overlayed with emotions that are goosed and stirred by the constant spam of insanity-inducing illusion-making propaganda themes."
Thingamajigs for everybody! ... yay!!!
--
We’re Being Fed a Steady Diet of Econocrap
http://mandelman.ml-implode.com/2012/06/were-being-fed-a-steady-diet-of-...
Rally warning continues...
SPX bullish daily chart strengthened further on Friday & more rally expected.
DOW initial target approx 13,170 & more upside after that.
MORE:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-24/market-analysis
LOL....and people still take Euro politics seriously?
It's nothing but show, folks, perception management, propaganda, whatever you like to call it.
The eurocrats are leading the eurosheeple to the desired outcome: complete integration. Every little crisis is expected and exploited to the fullest.