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The Disconnect Continues

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Presented with little comment - equities and bonds are diverging aggressively now as 10Y accelerates towards its all-time low yields (1.67 on 9/23). As we noted earlier, foreigners are dumping Treasuries at a record pace and yet it grinds tighter and stocks rally on USD weakness. Our 'thesis' from yesterday that a reactive Fed QE is being priced in seems the most 'sensible' but year-end flows for now are tough to call.

and its not just Treasuries (or 2s10s30s) that are derisking as CONTEXT (risk asset basket proxy) is leaking lower quite consistently...

Gold is up, EURJPY is leaking lower (FX carry) and Oil is coming off from its highs now.

 

Chart: Bloomberg

 

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Fri, 12/30/2011 - 12:07 | 2021700 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

The USD being weak only benefits one class: the SUPER wealthy, and union pension retirees:

But this goes back to some key points about the magic of currency devaluation. One of the primary mechanisms through which monetary expansion can stimulate a depressed economy is precisely because it does reduce average real wages. But when you reduce wages through monetary expansion rather than nominal wage cuts, you're undertaking a symmetrical reduction of the real debt burden so your income:debt ratio improves. Attempting to make the needed adjustment purely through nominal wages cuts is slower, more awkward, and much less favorable to families burdened with outstanding mortgages or credit card debts. Part of the political economy of prolonged depressions is precisely that this slower less effective adjustment process is more favorable to wealthy people and some classes of retirees.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2011/12/30/creating_jobs_by_cutting_wages.html

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 12:11 | 2021709 ZippyDooDah
ZippyDooDah's picture

Why I don't trade anymore.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 12:11 | 2021711 sabra1
sabra1's picture

according to lindsey williams, the speech the bernank gave in 2002, hi-lited exactly what was to unfold. the last course of action, is to devalue the dollar by 40%.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 12:12 | 2021715 rqb1
rqb1's picture

long term repo will work, imo, buy them 3 years.   long ag. think it will be the play of the year.   

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 12:13 | 2021718 split4to1
split4to1's picture

well in regard to the FX carry aforementioned above its plain to see .. Forex4you Technical Analysis 30 Dec 2011http://t.co/M4zvHDID

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 12:19 | 2021727 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

If I were a big player, I'd dump a bunch of shit at 3:57 just to freak everyone out and not leave time for a PPT response.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 12:21 | 2021730 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

It all makes sense in biflationary economics:  

Stocks up and bond yields down? Yes! CONTEXT and ES diverging? Yes! 

Odd behaviors in currencies, gold etc....yes! 

That's because each is marching to the tune of a different drummer. Treasuries are pricing in long term deflationary trends. Stocks are anticipating QE aka inflationary policies. 

But returns across asset classes are now trending toward zero real returns and yet purchasing power of a unit of currency (dollar) is plummeting in the bargain. It's gonna be a bone crusher of an economy (already is but ya ain't seen nuthin)

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 12:30 | 2021755 PicassoInActions
PicassoInActions's picture

some trash is trying to push euro up and usd down. i wonder who is doing it.

Gotta be some TBTF traitors.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 12:31 | 2021757 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

When do they downgrade Europe? Tonight?

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 12:36 | 2021770 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Sometime next week I'm guessing. Friday perhaps.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 12:36 | 2021772 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Whistle past the graveyard

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 12:38 | 2021775 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

....swinging your pocket watch and skipping.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 12:40 | 2021781 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

The bets are short term. Reality must be getting through to some.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 12:58 | 2021855 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

Check the "best before" date on the  shrink wrapper of your shit sandwich carefully before consumption.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 13:15 | 2021906 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Loading DXD for Swing

and Opening ES short below 1250 for possible gap down on monday

 

All for hedging purposes

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 13:47 | 2021982 dcb
dcb's picture

You forgot to mention how americans are removing money week after week, yet the market goes up. last I checked the way market are supposed to work is that if money comes out they drop. I really don't understand this, and the treasury action with foreigners. It would be really nice to see a paper like wsj, or financial times really talk about how entirely broken the market structure is.

when you add central banking and the insanity of inflation targeting to it it really gets insane. The only real purpose of inflation targeting is tom rig the markets. since price is set by the market place, and since price should fall and you should have deflation if people are selling things (yes that's how a market whould work), these idiots at the fed are saying that no matter how much money is pulled from the market we will print more to make up for those selling. it's just so fucked up.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 14:12 | 2022036 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Yea none of that adds up at all. They are removing funds near the rate of 08 iirc. We all know what happened then. Something has got to give sometime.

And for two below oh yes I'm sure top men are watching ZH 24/7 at this point.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 13:55 | 2021998 Georgesblog
Georgesblog's picture

There is no grounding in reality, for the markets. The paper speculation is just hanging from a noose, by the ankle.  It's going to be a long drop to the ground, when everything cuts loose. 2012 will be the dead cat bounce before the depression that makes everyone forget about the '30s. We'll have enough trouble to deal with.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/disconnect-continues?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 14:01 | 2022008 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

I know your reading ZeroHedge Ben Benanke.....

Fuck You and your Masters......

You fucking thiefs.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 14:12 | 2022035 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Hey guys.... I see Kitco has NO canadian one ounce SILVER maples  for sale.

They advertise ,Eagles,Mexican coins,Philharmonics,all kinds of one ounce silvers......

BUT ...NO one ounce silver canadian maples.

I think fuck head Jon sold out.....on yesterdays sale prices....

Check out the list.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 16:36 | 2022394 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Pretty sure I got the last 2008s.  Tee hee hee.

Now we'll see if they ship.

Sat, 12/31/2011 - 07:19 | 2023424 theyenguy
theyenguy's picture

The full economic and investment expansion of Bernankeism has been achieved as seen first, in the most toxic of municipal bonds Municipal Bond, Michigan Municipal Bonds, MIW, topping out, and secondly, a steeping of the of US Treasury curve, with the Flattner ETF, FLAT, turning topping out.
 
“Credit has turned bad”, and lacking any more “money good”, stocks do not have any more central bank juice to keep going. Furthermore with the strong rise of the Yen, FXY, and the fall of the world major currencies, DBV, and CEW, a global collateral shortage has developed, and carry trade loans need to be repaid. Thus the twin spigots of investment liquidity, central bank credit liquidity, and carry trade lending, have not only been turned off, they have turned toxic, and stocks that rose in the fourth quarter 2011, will be turning lower in first quarter 2011. Investment toxicity will be restimulating an investment demand for gold, GLD, which is trading around $1,500. The ongoing failure of fiat money, that is ongoing competitive currency deflation, and rising sovereign debt interest rates globally, will cause disinvestment out of stocks, and deleveraging out of commodities, and be the basis for devolution into diktat. The seigniorage, that is the moneyness, of fiat wealth will fail desperately in 2012. The only form of sovereign wealth in 2012 will be gold bullion. I recommend that one start dollar cost averaging a purchase and possession of gold bullion at this time.

Free market monetary policy has led to debasement of currencies and is giving rise to regional regional global governance. The failure of monetary credit will give rise to people placing trust in totalitarian rulers: totalitarian collectivism is the Eurozone’s future where public private partnerships work for the region’s security and stability. This was foretold in bible prophecy where a ten toed kingdom of regional global government forms out of two iron legs of hegemony, Daniel 2:31-33, these being the British Empire and the United States archipelago of military bases. The Sovereign Lord God, Psalms 2:4-5, saw the end before the beginning, and is simply trying to get people's attention by shaking the economic and political landscape; its his way of relating the kingdom of His Son is on the way, Revelation 2:26-27.

Nature economist and historian Elaine Meinel Supkis writes The Outer Darkness is a very odd place. This is where infinity and zero happen at the same time. And where wishes, when they come true, lead to disaster. If we wish for something and get it, it is really a curse. This odd situation is a paradox that humans refuse to understand. We hate this sort of paradox and want absolutes that always makes us happy. Only, when we get what we want, we are then profoundly unhappy. Why this is so is absolute yet hard to grasp: the challenges of living in difficulties is what makes life ‘living’ rather than an endless moral and mental death! It is boring. It drives us insane.

Outer Darkness has been achieved in the world’s sovereign debt marketplace. Infinity and Zero finally met as the coordinated central provision of Dollar FX Swaps and the ECB’s provision of the LTRO facility has coupled with the US Federal Reserve ZIRP policy and disaster is the result, as the world government treasuries, BWX, is about to enter an Elliott Wave 3 of 3 down.

The Beast Regime of Neoauthoritarianism is rising up out of the Mediterranean Sea. This monster of statism has seven heads, symbolic of its occupation in mankind’s seven institutions and ten horns symbolic of its rule in the world’s ten regions, Revelation 13:1-4.

The beast which the Apostle saw in the dream, was given him by angels, while in his 90s, and while living in exile on the Isle of Patmos, was like unto a leopard, and his feet were as the feet of a bear, and his mouth as the mouth of a lion. In other words, God is unleashing the most terrific combination of all predators upon mankind. The bear has feet that are padded for running at great speed and has claws that root out its burred prey. The leopard operates in stealth and its coat is camouflaged so that it goes about unseen. And the lion has jaws with terrible teeth. UnsealedProphecy relates The beast system is showing its teeth and we see an empire unfolding before us as never seen before. Usually empires rises with military might. This one rises with economic policies that will control the member states.

It is being called forth by the 1974 Clarion Call of the Club of Rome for regional global governance, as a means of providing security and stability, in a world of chaos, that is coming from derisking and deleveraging out the Banker Regime of Neoliberalism. The first region of global governance to form is the Asia Region; Before Its News reports New Asian Union Means The Fall Of The Dollar

 

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