This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Economic Alert: If You’re Not Worried Yet…You Should Be

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Brandon Smith from Alt-Market

Economic Alert: If You’re Not Worried Yet…You Should Be

 

For the past four years I have been covering the progression of the global economic crisis with an emphasis on the debilitating effects it has had on the American financial system.  Only once before have I ever issued an economic alert, and this was at the onset of the very first credit downgrade in U.S. history by S&P.  I do not take the word “alert” lightly.  Since 2008 we have seen a cycle of events that have severely weakened our country’s foundation, but each event has then been followed by a lull, sometimes 4 to 6 months at a stretch, which seems to disarm the public, drawing them back into apathy and complacency.  The calm moments before each passing storm give Americans a false sense of hope that our capsized fiscal vessel will somehow right itself if we just hold on a little longer...

I don’t have to tell most people within the Liberty Movement that this is not going to happen.  Unfortunately, there are many out there who do not share our awareness of the situation.   Debt implosions and currency devaluation NEVER simply “fade away”; they are always followed by extreme social and political strife that tends to sully the doorsteps of almost every individual and family.  The notion that we can coast through such a tempest unscathed is an insane idea, filled with a dangerous potential for sour regrets.

There are some people who also believe that the private Federal Reserve with the Treasury in tow has the ability to prolong the worst symptoms of the collapse indefinitely, or at least, until they have long since kicked the bucket and don’t have to worry about it anymore (the ‘pay-it forward to our grandkids’ crowd) .  I can say with 100% certainty that most of us will live to see the climax of the breakdown, and that this breakdown is about to enter a more precarious state before the end of this year.  You can only stretch a sun-boiled rubber band so far before it snaps completely, and America’s financial elasticity has long been melted away.

A pummeling hailstorm of news items and international developments have made the first half of 2012 almost impossible to track and analyze.  The frequency at which negative information has surfaced is almost dizzying.  However, a pattern and a recognizable motion are beginning to take shape, and, I believe, a loose timeline is beginning to form. 

At the end of January, I covered the incredible nosedive of the Baltic Dry Index (a measure of global shipping rates that signals a fall in global demand) to historic lows.  I pointed out the tendency of stocks and the general economy to crash around 8 months (sometimes a little longer) after the BDI makes such a dramatic downturn.  Mainstream analysts, of course, attributed the fall to an “overproduction of ships”, which is the same exact excuse they used when the BDI collapsed back in 2008 just before the derivatives bubble burst.  It would seem that the cable TV talking heads were wrong yet again, as the international market facade quickly evaporates right in line with the BDI’s almost prophetic knack for calling an economic derailment in advance.

Here are some of the most important reasons why every American should be prepared for much harder days, especially before the end of 2012:

The European Union Is Officially Dead In The Water

Stick a fork in er’, the EU is done!  We are talking about full scale dismantlement, likely followed by a reformation of core nations and multiple collapse scenarios of peripheral countries.  The writing is all over the wall in the wake of the latest election results in Greece and France, where, as alternative researchers have been predicting for some time, the battle between the government spending crowd and proponents of austerity has reached a fever pitch. 

The Greeks and the French are royally pissed over draconian cuts in public programs and the destruction of pensions which have been a mainstay of their economies for quite some time.  They are also furious over being sold off like collateral to the IMF and World Bank.  Rightly so.  Like the American taxpayer, the taxpayers of floundering EU nations are wrongly being held responsible for the financial mismanagement and fraud of their governments and global banks which have remained untouched and unpunished for their trespasses.  The problem is, the voters of both countries are signing on to the socialist/quasi-communist bandwagon in response.  In Greece, the Left Coalition Party, a splinter group of the traditional communist party, has now taken a primary position of power:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/07/us-greece-idUSBRE8440DG20120507

In France, voters have elected socialist Francois Hollande (a Bilderberg attendee), whose latest promise is to spend France into recovery through his “pro-growth agenda”:

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/french-president-elect-hollande-won-t-difficult-obama-195617064.html

I have no doubt that the elections of the EU are as manipulated by elitists as they are here in the U.S., and I’m sure false paradigms abound.  Have Europeans forgotten that it was overt government spending that set them on the path to calamity in the first place?  Or, are they like Americans; just desperate for any change in the ranks of leadership?  One would think that they would take note of the problems here in our country and realize that electing a socialist to replace another socialist is no way out of economic hardship.

Former officials like Nicolas Sarkozy may have claimed to be distanced from the socialist ideal, but, as with all globalist puppets, their actions did not match their rhetoric, and they have always supported policies of centralization and big government.  The French and the Greeks have essentially replaced closet collectivists with outspoken collectivists, and will see NO relief from the crisis in the Euro-zone as a result of the political reordering.  In fact, the stage has now been set for a volatile chain of dominos.  Germany, which is the only economy left holding the EU together, has been unyielding on austerity cuts.  A conflict between France and Germany is now inevitable.  Neither will compromise their position, and I can see no other eventual result than a reexamination and perhaps abandonment of the EU charter. 

How does this affect America?  Being that international banks and corporations have forced our countries into interdependency through the engineered chicanery of globalization, any collapse in Europe is going to strike hard around the world, but the worst will hit the U.S. and China.  Which is probably why China is disengaging trade away from the U.S. and the EU and focusing on other developing nations:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/08/us-china-economy-trade-idUSBRE84702N20120508

If you thought the Greek rollercoaster was a pain in the neck for investment markets, just wait until the whole of the EU is in a shambles! 

Spain is next in line, with a 25% official unemployment rate and a massive black market economy forming.  As I have been saying for years now, when governments disrupt the financial survival of the people, they WILL form their own alternatives, including black markets and barter markets.  It is about survival.  The Spanish government does not care much for these alternatives, though, and has now banned cash transaction over 2500 euros in a futile attempt to squeeze taxes out of the populace through digitally tracked payment methods:

http://thedailybell.com/3814/Spain-Bans-Cash

Another major concern for Americans is the fact that Europeans are inching towards an abandonment of the dollar.  Francois Hollande has openly called for an end to the dollar’s world reserve status, and with a majority backing of the French people, he could easily make this happen, at least where France is concerned.  All it takes is for a few key countries to publically and completely drop the Greenback and the dollar’s reputation as a safe haven investment will be quashed.  This could very well happen before 2012 is over.

QE3 Is The End

Here is the bottom line; U.S. growth is a theater of shadows.  There has been no progress, no recovery, only the misrepresentation of statistics.  Millions of Americans have fallen off unemployment rolls because they have been jobless for too long, which lowers the unemployment rate, but does not change the fact that they are still without work.  Durable goods orders are dropping like an avalanche.  U.S. credit has been lowered yet again by rating agency Egan-Jones.  With China making bilateral trade deals in numerous countries on the condition that the dollar be dropped as the primary purchasing mechanism, and with the EU turning to economic mulch, the currency’s safety is nonexistent.  Traditional investors who cling to the idea that a falling Euro spells dollar strength will be sorely disappointed when the currency is suddenly being rejected in international currency markets.

The Federal Reserve has already stated that any signs of “relapse” into recession (the recession that we never left) will be met with all options on the table, including QE3:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/12/us-usa-fed-idUSBRE83B1KD20120412

I believe that QE3 will probably be announced this year (due in large part to trauma from Europe), and, that this will trigger a mass movement by foreign nations to drop the dollar as the world reserve.  QE3 will be the straw that broke the camel.  How exactly this will play out socially and politically, I do not know (I could take a good guess though).  But, the technical results are predictable.  The Fed will respond to the lack of treasury purchases by ramping up fiat printing in order to cover the ever increasing costs of the government machine.  The Greenback will immediately lose a large portion of its value, at least in terms of imported goods, causing inflation in prices.  Oil and energy prices will skyrocket if OPEC follows suit (which they will, though the Saudis may still honor dollars for a time).  Doing any traditional business will become nearly impossible, and price inflation will dominate the lives and the minds of average unprepared citizens.            

The amount of time that it will take for these difficulties to unfold is also not clear.  We are operating in uncharted territory, and dealing with a collapse scenario on a truly planetary scale.  My best advice is to assume that the avalanche will move fast.

While markets in our country have seen only mild disruptions so far this year, their solidity is predicated on a host of props and costume pieces, any one of which could pull the rug out from under America’s suspension of disbelief if it strays but a little from the illusion.  As long as the dollar holds, stocks can be infused with bailout juice through major banks.  So can major companies and even desperate state governments on the verge of bankruptcy.  The Dow will remain relatively friendly, and day traders and the public will remain happy.  As soon as the dollar comes into question, all bets are off…

Does This Mean Doom, Or Just Another Bad Day?

The real beginning of today’s collapse is tied to the events of 2008.  The pace of it has been deceptive, but also, in a way, it is a gift.  Over the past four years, I have personally seen the awakening of thousands of people that may have never had the chance if the system had gone into full spectrum breakdown right away.  The question now is, how much longer can the U.S. wobble along on one wheel?  In my view, and from the evidence I see in markets at the moment, not much longer. 

It is hard to set aside any expectations that the next leg down will be easy to digest for the populace.  The reality of our predicament is starting to hit home.  All the tax return checks have been spent.  The credit cards have been maxed.  The new cars have been sold off and traded in for ghetto-mobiles.  The good jobs have been replaced with Taco Bell slavery.  A trip to see The Avengers is now the family vacation.  And, the distractions of reality TV just aren’t buttering our bread anymore.  It’s the little things at first that really signal the financial mood of a society, as well as reveal the more vital and looming issues just over the horizon.

All indicators suggest that this year will be unlike any other before.  In 2008, we saw the first trigger events for the collapse.  In 2008/2009, we saw the creation of the bailout culture, setting the stage for inflation and dollar disintegration.  In 2010, we saw the first bilateral trade deal cutting out the dollar between China and Russia, which is now the template for trade deals all over the globe.  In 2011, we saw the first downgrade of the U.S. credit rating and the crisis in the EU become epidemic.  In 2012, I see not just another difficulty to add to the mountain, but a culmination of all these detriments to produce something entirely new; a vast and subversive realignment forcing many of us to take a more aggressive stance in the fight for an economically and socially free America.

Financial disasters have always been a convenient catalyst for a host of even more frightening obstacles, including civil unrest, and blatant totalitarianism.  This is the cusp.  It is one of those moments that people of later generations read about in awe, and sometimes horror.  The “doom” is not in the event, but in the response.  What we make of the days approaching determines the darkness that they cast upon the future.  It is a test.  It is not something to be dreaded.  It is something to be seized upon, and dealt with, as great men and women before us have done.  At the very least, we know that it is coming.  That, in itself, could well seal our success…

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Tue, 05/08/2012 - 09:44 | 2406225 Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

I guess you didn't buy any of the 1000% yielding Greek notes a few months back like I did, eh?  Suckers.....

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 11:46 | 2406364 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

It was cancelled due to lack of interest, so I guess the Fed will be in an empty room with an echo.

Nice play Moneyswirth.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 09:44 | 2406212 Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

Bravo Mr. Smith.  Bra-Vo.

Especially on the bit where you point out that the only difference between Sarkozy and Hollande is that the former is more subdued about his intentions vs the latter.

On Sunday, the American press, blogosphere, etc were all highbrow in their discovery that "socialism is on the march in Europe now..."   This is disingenuous in the least, completely ignorant at worst.  Socialism never left Europe, it's always been there but in various degrees.  It's akin to having two parties here in the USA---a moderate Democrat party and a liberal Democrat party.  Both have the same intentions, just different styles.

Indeed, Europe is now buckling under the weight of generations of perpetual debt and statism.  The oligarchs were protecting their arses the whole time, while preaching to the plebes how they needed to do more with less. 

Coming soon to an America near you.   

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 10:22 | 2406421 walküre
walküre's picture

it's akin to having two parties here in the USA---a moderate Democrat party and a liberal Democrat party.

As opposed to the other party which is full of Rinos and just pretending they aren't socialists when in reality they're advocating socialism for the rich, and starvation for the poor.

Try and fix yourself a meal when your staff doesn't show up for work. Worse yet, try and sleep well when you know your staff is pissed at you for all the abuses and your cheap tricks. FYI your staff is learning how they were mistreated and exploited by you from some formerly high paid teacher.

It's quite lonely at the top. Soon you'll learn what those words really mean.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 10:56 | 2406607 karzai_luver
karzai_luver's picture

garbage

 

get out get on the ground unhook from your skype .............

 

 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 09:45 | 2406223 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Damn Silver back in the 20s and gold about to lose 1600.  I might try to pick up some Silver around $25 for a bounce

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 09:55 | 2406287 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

Ooohh, A buying opportunity! Dumb asses. Look out below, PM's are the ultimate weapon against the system upon it's appreciation, have they been giving power, or taking it?

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 10:07 | 2406351 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I might try to pick up some Silver around $25 for a bounce

 

Status : FAIL

 

You should have said......I'm buying now.

 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 13:27 | 2407255 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Good, I hope you buy a lot at this price while the margin calls keep coming and the price keeps dropping. I'm in under $25, but maybe not until $22. 

This is a replay of 2008, but worse. On October 24, 2008, silver bottomed at 8.88 (London Fix) and began to rise from there.

Point is, wait for the equity markets to crash, then buy, because all the idiots with margin calls will be selling their silver to cover.

Note that silver and gold took the brunt of the collapse, but began recovering five months before the equity markets bottomed.

A little knowledge is a dangerous thing. You should know.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 10:13 | 2406385 WAMO556
WAMO556's picture

Agreed!!! Time to buy ALOT, NOW, tommorrow, the next day and keep buying. The wealth transfer is starting!

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 09:48 | 2406234 phyregold
phyregold's picture

The problem:  The system - status qou

The answer: Ron Paul

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 09:48 | 2406236 LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

I'm very worried. The garbage men didn't come this morning.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 09:51 | 2406255 Money 4 Nothing
Tue, 05/08/2012 - 10:10 | 2406360 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Time for another Boston Tea Party......this time the kings are not clear across an ocean.

 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 10:35 | 2406507 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

They never left.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 11:48 | 2406844 LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

Actually they had an outdoor arts and crafts show. Bullish.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 11:52 | 2406845 LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

Duplicate

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 09:50 | 2406246 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

Why do we keep calling them the Treasury Dept. here? We do know better than that... right? The IMF took them over years ago. They just kept the name Treasury Dept. so people don't freak out.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 09:51 | 2406253 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

The Fed does not care about the economy.  It cares about the banking system, supporting government borrowing, and the fiat dollar, in that order.  Their main concern is transferring wealth from you into the banks. 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 10:23 | 2406432 bshirley1968
bshirley1968's picture

That is it, exactly!  All this political talking crap about the "economy stupid" is just that.....for the stupid.  It is and always has been about the banks.  That is all that matters to the people in control because the banks are the parasites used to suck the life out of the rest of us.  It won't be long and the banks will need more money and the printer will come to THEIR rescue but NEVER ours.  And I am glad because I don't want or need their help and never, ever, ever want to say I am beholden to the big eared pseudo-muslim in the White House.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 09:56 | 2406256 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Being worried is not productive...getting prepared is.

Who of you by worrying can add a single hour to his life?  (Matt 6:27).  

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 09:59 | 2406304 Catullus
Catullus's picture

Yeah the data coming in is "bad" but it's no worse that what it has been for 4 years now. They show small improvements in the data on yoy basis sometimes, but it's not back up to bubble levels. Here's the point: if you're looking at data and saying a crisis is imminent, I think you're fooling yourself.

The best argument going for imminent collapse is someone's central bank not being allowed to create more money. The only hope for that is a political resistance to it. And when you survey the landscape of political discourse, no movement has the critical mass yet to do it. Central banks are going to continue to print money and purchase assets to keep the charade going and yes they can muddle through. Setting off an inflationary event requires that this money printing enter the economy (student loans, car loans, or these beyond moronic "green energy" projects) and there's a crisis in confidence.

Until Americans realize their gas and grocery bills are driven higher by the Fed, there's plenty of time for muddle through to occur. Sorry to say, but only a small fraction of the population sees the connection.

We're riding the bubble up right now. Student loans, green energy, health care.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 10:03 | 2406324 q99x2
q99x2's picture

4 more years of hope and change. BTFD.

Money ain't what it used to be.

Who cares. I watched Avengers with Russian subtitles. Wasn't that bad.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 10:16 | 2406397 walküre
walküre's picture

You da terrist!

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 10:07 | 2406344 Hannibal
Hannibal's picture

I am long fmj hollow points.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 10:16 | 2406396 Hobbleknee
Hobbleknee's picture

*OUT OF STOCK* Homeland Security bought them all.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 10:25 | 2406434 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

and that's why I started stockpiling in 2006!

Extra ammo- good for trading.

Keep Stackin!

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 10:16 | 2406390 walküre
walküre's picture

My fellow Americans, this is Uncle Warren speaking.

Do not buy any gold. Your Dollar is safe.

Leave the gold buying to those .. what was that you said earlier Ben? Barbarians? Ok, leave the gold buying to the Barbarians in Europe. They are experiencing some technical difficulties because unfortunately they just don't have any Dollars.

Do as I say!

In the meantime, Uncle Warren in disguise at local pawnshops with bundles of cash buying everything that is gold, gold plated, gold minted or simply smells like gold.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 11:00 | 2406627 gnomon
gnomon's picture

No, Uncle Warren is taking a cue from Soros and smashing the jaws of jews with his cane and collecting their gold fillings as they scatter to the pavement.

Two peas in a pod drifting on the river Styx on their way to Hell. 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 10:22 | 2406415 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Stack faster, Bit-Chez!

I'm on the way to the bullion dealer now!

Keep Stackin!

-LC55

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 10:26 | 2406449 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

Idoiots!!!

You will have a chance to buy at TRIPLE digits MARK MY WORDS.

DONT GET ME WRONG. At 900 Im gonna buy the SHIT out of Platinum. But you are TOO EARLY.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 10:45 | 2406557 jomama
jomama's picture

er, if the EU fails, i doubt the bullion dealer will be coughing anything up at the 'spot' price, if at all.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 13:18 | 2407209 CCanuck
CCanuck's picture

I work for a small dealer, our conversations have now switched to when we will disconnect from issued paper price. The Boss already has "stacked" 2000 oz of silver, it was bought at 35.50 not to be sold until it goes back to 34+. Our inventory consists of buy-in rounds (scared sellers), which is nominal at best..200-225 ozs. Sales are slightly down over the last few weeks, one buyer of more than 200oz in the last 3 weeks.

Not many in these parts Buy'n the Dip.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 10:22 | 2406420 spooz
spooz's picture

I think the next easing should be a debit card to every citizen to be used first to repay debt and then to spend in the economy.  

Can't find any verification for the Hollande wanting to end reserve currency status thing.  Might be propaganda. Can you point me to where it describes him "openly calling" for that? 

The EU countries who are being put on auterity diets should pull an Iceland.  Shake off that debt and start over.  Bondholders be damned. And watch out for the carpetbagging IMF.

And when the next financial crisis happens, its time to restructure the banks, end TOO BIG, bondholder haircuts, equity wiped out, Glass Steagall reinstated.  Like it should have happened the first time.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 12:54 | 2407098 GoingLoonie
GoingLoonie's picture

Well said.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 10:24 | 2406427 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Jamie Dimon, left, CEO and chairman of JPMorgan Chase & Co, and Lloyd Craig Blankfein, CEO of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. at the White House. 

Why aren't' these terrorists in prison indtead of at the White House.


Tue, 05/08/2012 - 10:32 | 2406484 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

Look, their just doing what they were told.. Sokay. You say criminal, they say compliance.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 10:37 | 2406518 MrVincent
MrVincent's picture

Fiat currencies will all come and go, but there will always be Gold....and Silver too!

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 10:46 | 2406567 franzpick
franzpick's picture

CAC is the downside leader, off earlier almost 3%: my screens are looking like another Lehman moment.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 10:55 | 2406594 tempo
tempo's picture

So France hates austerity and wants growth. More deficit spending and debt will solve the problem. Who will buy the crappy debt from France and at what interest rate. France and Greece will take their medicene from the US, Germany and China and be happy. The people will learn to live with less and say thank you. Whats their alternative...rioting in the streets in Paris doesn't hurt the big dogs.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 10:56 | 2406609 daxtonbrown
daxtonbrown's picture

We are already in a civil war over debt slavery to the welfare state, it is just being fought differently than CWI. The Federal Reserve has just acted as the enabler, printing up more cash after Reagan failed to 'starve the beast' with low taxes. The socialists simply did an end around and don't bother to collect taxes anymore (at least not enough to balance the budget). So a global civil war will need to be fought to overthrow the bankrs and socialists because the dets are just piled up too high for a soft landing.

http://www.futurnamics.com/civilwar.php

The only hope for the little guy is to hunker down and Go Galt. That means not just with gold, but move to independence from the grid wherever and however you can.

http://www.futurnamics.com/goinggalt.php

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 11:05 | 2406639 Joe The Plumber
Joe The Plumber's picture

The western romans went Galt when taxes and regulation made an honest living impossible. Pretty sad when subsistence farming, corruption and black markets, and a nomadic lifestyle look better than civilization

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 10:58 | 2406611 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

"Have Europeans forgotten that it was overt government spending that set them on the path to calamity in the first place?"

The sheeple voted for more of the same

"..electing a socialist to replace another socialist is no way out of economic hardship."

The sheeple voted for more of the same

Democratic voting, the dumbest decision-making process since Committees

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 10:58 | 2406614 Joe The Plumber
Joe The Plumber's picture

There is still plenty of road and the can is in good shape. Western Roman empire lasted 100 years after the second century slide that never stopped.

Western roman empire fell when the sheeple didnt give a shit anymore and found due to high taxes fleeing or subsistence farming were the best choices.

We have a long way to go before the average person could not care less if the USSA survives. Thats when it collapses

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 11:00 | 2406625 Joe The Plumber
Joe The Plumber's picture

Should say third century not second. Tacitus is a good read

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 22:54 | 2408163 matrix2012
matrix2012's picture

 

In drawing parallels to the decline and fall of the Roman Empire, a note about the distinctiveness of its disintegration.

David has kindly invited me to write a rejoinder to his column "I'm Worried", where he sees the parallel in the decline between United States and Rome. While my crystal ball is no more perspicuous than anyone else's (and my day job as an economist probably makes it less so, given our track record), I think it would be instructive to visualize what the United States might look like centuries from now, were we to follow the same arc of decline as the Roman Empire from its Augustinian heights during first century AD.

Were that the case, a century from now the vast majority of our presidents would die either fighting someone else or at the hand of his or her successor, most of whom had risen to prominence through the military [1]. States west of the Rockies would break away and form their own countries, as trade and economic integration completely broke down [2]. The strains from an overly expanded army and devastating plagues [3] would further cause the collapse of civil society. And there would be 100 million fewer Americans a hundred years from now, as incessant civil wars wiped out a large number of people [4].

All this, before our version of Diocletian shows up.

Historians Will and Ariel Durant, as quoted by David, attribute the final destruction of the Roman Empire to Diocletian's "socialist interlude." . I am of the opinion that this reflects more the anxieties of our times and that even had Diocletian been replaced by Empress Margaret Thatcher Augustus, who in turn appointed Imperator Ayn Rand Maximus as her co-emperor, the trajectory of the Roman Empire would not have been much different.

I will get to that later. First let me lay out five categories of decline, from most traumatic to least:

1) Complete population disintegration. The kind of decline described in Jared Diamond's Collapse in my mind ranks as the worst, because a society experiences irreversible shock and the entire society breaks down. Easter Island is the most vivid example of this. By one estimate, the post-ecological destruction of the island allowed it to hold only a fifth of its population during its height [5]. Imagine the impact to civil society in America if 250 million of us starved to death tomorrow.

2) Social and political disintegration. This is better than the previous category in that the population is allowed to recover so that a remnant of the civilization can grow after the deluge, but nonetheless the polity that once encompassed these people has completely disintegrated. I would place the Roman Empire in this category, because not only did it lose parts of the empire that were either peripheral or non-core (in that they did not share common linguistic or cultural traits, such as the Greek part of the empire), but also, even those parts where there were closer cultural bonds, such as Roman Gaul, eventually broke away. Italy proper also broke into multiple city-states. If America experienced this category of decline, then a few centuries from now our country would cease to exist, the Constitution would govern no one, and successor city states such as the Republic of Miami would vie against the Grand Duchy of Annapolis over things like control of the hinterlands and fight against each other's navies on the high seas. The other example I can think of is the gradual disintegration of the Mongol Empire as it lost its Eurasian holdings and experienced tribal fragmentation by the 18th century.

3) Decline into vassalage. The example I have here is Egypt, which went from an imperial power in its own right to a regional province that was fought over by other empires – from the Persians to the Greeks to the Romans to the Fatimids to the Ottomans to the British. Maybe centuries from now the United States will be annexed by Emperor Wayne Gretzky VII of Canada as its eleventh province, from which much of their potatoes will come. An ignominious outcome for the Stars and Stripes, but better than the previous case, in that while the polity might not exist, there is still a level of cultural unity that, should the opportunity arise, can leave that vassalage and become a cohesive entity again. Egypt itself was able to regain its own independence at various times. A more dramatic example is Poland, which became a single political entity 103 years after its initial partition by the Eastern European powers [6]. This political unity might seem like a cakewalk until you think about all the map-drawn countries that didn't pan out so well [7].

4) Imperial divestment. This is decolonization as the sun sets on the British Empire. However, this "decline and fall" is very different from the Roman Empire instance, in that England as a political entity remains as such, by and large: Manchester isn't a rival to Liverpool outside of Premiere League soccer. The United States in this scenario would lose Puerto Rico and Guam, but I'm guessing most people would not consider that as a deathblow to American civilization. Other examples include post-WWI Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire, post-WWII Japan, and all the European powers, who had to disgorge their overseas possessions in the intervening decades. This is probably the type of "decline" that we most typically regard as such.

5) Relative decline and resurgence. In this I have in mind China, which experienced a relative decline from its height in terms of technological and economic prowess [8]. But China, despite periodic fragmentation, retained its social and political integrity to this day. Other examples include Iran as it descended from the Persian Empire and, to a lesser extent, India.

...

Read the full article here

 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 11:03 | 2406632 zonetraders
zonetraders's picture

http://capital3x.com/think-tank/case-study-on-falconfx-and-gladiator/

 

Bond Market Indicators are pointing one way.....

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 11:04 | 2406637 c-rev with a twist
c-rev with a twist's picture

Any analysis of baltic dry index as a leading indicator has been proven misleading given how shipping fleet sizes have changed, so this article is total bullshit.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 11:08 | 2406661 Goatboy
Goatboy's picture

Magnificent idiocy of this, in essence mainstream mindset, captured in few sentences:

Millions of Americans have fallen off unemployment rolls because they have been jobless for too long, which lowers the unemployment rate, but does not change the fact that they are still without work.

Work is not the only way to sustain oneself. It might seem unimportant but many of these people are not suffering because they lack work but because they lack income! Thats the key and exit. Stop regurgitating same shit as our owners.

It is something to be seized upon, and dealt with, as great men and women before us have done.

LOL! Stop mystifying ordinary things and events. Or were we expected to get shivers down our spine for this meaningless crap?

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 11:10 | 2406665 aerojet
aerojet's picture

You guys are smoking crack.  If the Euro fails, the dollar is the last man standing.  No matter how badly the US treats its currency, it's the only game in town.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 11:55 | 2406866 Blue Horshoe Lo...
Blue Horshoe Loves Annacott Steel's picture

U forgot gold sucker.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 12:13 | 2406946 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

Gold wins during the reset.  Dollar will surge one more time as the panic pushes everyone to sell..  Yes there will be big dips to buy PMs but if you don't want to pay attention just buy now and stop watching the news

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 17:13 | 2408191 matrix2012
matrix2012's picture

Yes, the Printable Paper has higher value or importance than the limited barbaric relic!

Some will even point it out that because the relic is just available in limited quantity, it's impossible for it to have a more important role than the Printable Paper!

FIAT RULEZ THE WORLD!!!

 

//S. Off

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 11:12 | 2406680 bill1102inf
bill1102inf's picture

You should WORRY IF, you have money 'invested' in 401ks, you own gold in any form long, you bought a LEAF or VOLT because of impending high gasoline prices, you wasted money on hoarding kibble to eat when the SHTF, you dont have a job, you own a house worth more than 2 years worth of your real income, you havent made at least a 20% gain on your entire portfolio over the last 6 months. Period. the End

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 11:21 | 2406714 connda
connda's picture

Not that I don't believe that SWHTF, but I've heard this so much that it's like that boy that cried "WOLF", about 100 too many times.

Yeah!  The system is fucked.  If you want to really impress me, start giving me realistic times and dates for the implosion.  Otherwise, what I'm hearing is just the other side of the propaganda.  And right now, both sides are simply utter Bullshit.

 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 11:28 | 2406747 sbenard
sbenard's picture

Buy food while you still can. You're gonna need it!

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 11:36 | 2406782 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

GROW food while you still can... You're gonna need to...

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 11:42 | 2406813 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

S-510 and S-511 say otherwise. Anyone paying attention?

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 11:35 | 2406781 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

don't they have any helicopters in Europe? if the socialists controlled the levers of power, they would throw money to the masses below, in exchange for showing up at your government job two days a week. Hollandes pro-growth spending sounds like Obama's hope and change, and Obama is an economic fascist, or socialism for corporations. the new French leadership is much closer to the present US position than the UK, and far far left of the Germans. 

 

but the 2008 fall from the end of the cliff wasn't an accident, the economy was pushed, by Bush Paulson and Bernanke. the political poison ground left Obama with no choice but to accept Bernanke and his policy decisions, or fire him, prosecute the criminal political class of clowns before him, and risk the media tearing him apart on several different points.

now should Obama find himself in the same position as Bush he will probably push the button too, drop the economy off a cliff, declare a crisis and threaten tanks in the street if Mitt Romney is elected.

its cheap theatre, but it is what it is. all any of the measures of leverage prove is how delicate the system is, should the leaders decide to hit the reset button in an effort to hold on to the levers of power.

Europe and Real Politk are just a humorous aside. Dollars will become scarce, Bernanke will open a swap line, Euros for Dollars, because if he prints too many dollars the leveraged community will start to deleverage, (hard currency enters the economy and becomes fait accomple to inflation) and that is not good.

 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 11:37 | 2406787 Blue Horshoe Lo...
Blue Horshoe Loves Annacott Steel's picture

This is very bullish for the riots and civil unrest ETF.

Ticker: SNAFU

2x riots ETF: FUBAR

Stay thirsty my friends.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 11:39 | 2406801 Cycle
Cycle's picture

Gold, silver and oil seem to be suggesting deflation, according to these charts, which would be in line with decadal commodity price cycles.

I think whether or not the Fed intervenes to counteract this deflation, monetary destruction is assured, either by the deflationary route, or the hyperinflationary route. At this point, it seems like the size of the outstanding debt will prevent the "Goldilocks" inflation sought by Bernanke.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 11:44 | 2406819 michigan independant
michigan independant's picture

Bears are messy eaters so just leave em be. If your not stocked up for the main event thats unfortunate. Maybe he got a little worked up but he has the balls to call it as he feels.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 11:46 | 2406831 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

zerobrains is clearly on the wrong side here and every day that goes by it becomes more and more obvious.

There is still no retail participation in equities.

The FED obviously wants equities to go higher-zerobrains is fighting the fed.

Retail are nose deep in precious metals.

This site is wrong like the sun rising.

 

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:58 | 2407687 matrix2012
matrix2012's picture

Xkxxxxtly, i don't grasp why you need to be around here...

 

go to FAUX NEWS site or any other MSM sites if you look for your herd!

 

---

“All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.” — Arthur Schopenhauer, 19th-century philosopher

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 11:47 | 2406837 world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

Dont' Worry, Be Happy

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 12:12 | 2406945 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"There are some people who also believe that the private Federal Reserve with the Treasury in tow has the ability to prolong the worst symptoms of the collapse indefinitely, or at least, until they have long since kicked the bucket and don’t have to worry about it anymore (the ‘pay-it forward to our grandkids’ crowd)."

I wouldn't ignore their stellar track record to date.  This probably aint gonna happen overnight, you know.  But it will happen, slowly, and then someone will notice that the overseas demand for the dollar has faded significantly - but maybe 20 years down the road.

"I believe that QE3 will probably be announced this year (due in large part to trauma from Europe), and, that this will trigger a mass movement by foreign nations to drop the dollar as the world reserve.  QE3 will be the straw that broke the camel. "

And, this is precisely why it won't be announced.  Not sayin' it won't happen, but it will be done very quietly.

"I can say with 100% certainty that most of us will live to see the climax of the breakdown,"

Yup, but how many will live past the climax?

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 12:14 | 2406954 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

I've been expecting this. However im totally not in the mood to deal with it though. I realize it's not a choice. Well I suppose it could be if you decide to just check out of this nuthouse.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 12:31 | 2407007 WilliamD
WilliamD's picture

It's the Federal Reserve! It's the Gubment! It's the aliens!

No, it's the "greed is good" genie that Ronald let out, who led by example when he sicced the IRS on waitresses' tips, began deregulation of the FIRE sectors, and job outsourcing began to be a sure path to (short-term) profits. So no one should be surprised that manufacturing is gutted, the FIRE sector is squeezing every last penny from the middle class and poor, and we have to export raw materials and armaments to stay afloat. Sounds rather 3rd world to me.

Just heard about this guy, what he says sounds right-on about what's going on. He wrote a book called Ecotopia back in the 70s I think. Anyway, apparently this is his last writing, since he died recently.

http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/ernest_callenbach_last_words_to_an_a...

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:42 | 2407591 matrix2012
matrix2012's picture

Thanks WilliamD for the good link...it offers a good reading

+1

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 12:41 | 2407048 Magnum
Magnum's picture

Just like the radio and tv media hype up the nonexistent "culture war" in order to keep listeners on the seat of their chair to witness endless verbal battles between the same characters ("stay tuned for the Naomi Rosenstein and the Ira Benjamin Goldburg in a heated exchange"....), there is money to be made writing articles about the coming economic collapse, how to survive in a Mad Max scenario, all the while selling website ads for water filters and powdered food in cans.  Alt-Market has been writing the same story, in various forms, for a long time.  If we have a collapse on the way, get it over with.  At least we will have some new material to read.  I long for the day when authors are capturing eyeballs with endless stories about something else, involving characters from a different tribe if possible...  

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 12:52 | 2407090 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

We are in the economic collapse.  It isn't a one day event.  The absolutely only thing that will restore confidence is a gold standard.  That is how it always works.  The longer we wait to revalue vs gold, the worse it will be.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 12:53 | 2407096 onis_uk
onis_uk's picture

I thinki the Myans are bang on ........december 2012 is going to be a mental change in the way we live !

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 13:07 | 2407155 boogiedown
boogiedown's picture

Re: Spain bans cash

"The Spanish government does not care much for these alternatives, though, and has now banned cash transaction over 2500 euros in a futile attempt to squeeze taxes out of the populace through digitally tracked payment methods"

Obama's effectively done the same thing, snuck into the "healtcare" bill. transactions over $600 need to be reported on a 1099 form.

http://blogs.reuters.com/reuters-money/2010/10/20/1099-tax-rule-may-bring-big-pain-to-small-business/

excerpt: 

"... What does it mean?

It means that you’d better be ready to track your spending by vendor, and have an easy way of tallying up whether that spending totals more than $600 per year. A business that spends $20 a week on pizza for its employees, for example, would spend a total of $1,040 a yea r— and would need to file a 1099 form to that local pizzeria.

The recordkeeping complexities are mindboggling, and there are still a lot of unanswered questions about how this new rule might be implemented. Internal Revenue Service Commissioner Douglas Shulman has said that the agency will look to exempt transactions done with credit or debit cards. While a credit-card exemption would provide significant relief to many small businesses, it could create its own recordkeeping issues (businesses would then need to distinguish between payments made by card and those done by cash or check to the same vendor) and it could also wind up unintentionally hurting businesses that do not accept credit cards.  ..."

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 13:11 | 2407158 besnook
besnook's picture

there are two ways to look at this.

this is being done on purpose complete with a desired ending in doom or this is being done on purpose with a hope that the ending is good.  history has precast the outcome so there is no chance this is a random walk. if i (or you) can figure it out then they know what is happening, what they are doing, is going to end in disaster for the people of the world.

it makes perfect sense, thinking every which way about it, that the ultimate and only solution is a massive capacity destruction event to reset to zero. in order for this event to be successful it must include china and india along with the usual participants in the west and russia.

the miscalculation is that the west will prevail with the usa once again on top. history says china wins, reclaiming it's place on top of the world after a short hiatus while the west ruled the sand box.

it is at the point of the game that the end is sooner than later.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 13:19 | 2407214 gwar5
gwar5's picture

The Currency Wars are in full swing. We're in a period of tactical and strategic manuevering by countries for positioning ahead of a new global monetary system. Bilateral currency agreements, and gold are all wisely being weaponized by the BRICS against USD status quo. 

 

The West, actly stupidly, continues to surrender the future. Perhaps currency chaos, then SDRs to clean up the mess with China and the East coming out on top and the EURO and USD greatly diminished. Future SDR consideration for Western fiat will not be kind. Transfer of power and wealth from West to East complete. War over. We lose. Hard times.

The international bankers have no loyalties so they don't much care as long as they can manage a stake in the new frontier in the East.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 13:46 | 2407351 Dr. Crime
Dr. Crime's picture

I have to call bullshit on this essay. It seems like the more breathless the adjectives and the more use of allegory, the less likely I am to believe it anymore. How many times is the collapse coming? Hasn't it been called a couple of times before? It seems like 1000AD was a big one that never got here. Or the old guy from two summers ago or those pesky 2012 Mayans or the Euro/Greek/Spain/Baltic Dry Index collapse causes deflation or maybe hyperinflation or (my favorite) the "my dog's butt looks like the Virgin Mary and that is a sign and portrend so we're all goin to die" scenarios are getting old.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:15 | 2407478 denny69
denny69's picture

A humble suggestion and I'm not trying to be a wiseass: Simply go back through human history and try to identify those moments when things changed overnight. For example: The German attack on Poland or Hurrican Katrina. One day folks were just living their normal lives. The next, they were struggling to survive. I'm not claiming that the above predicted collapse will happen; but to be contemptuous of disaster is almost like an invitation for it to affect one's life and one doesn't necessarily have to walk around in a constant state of paranoia. Disasters do happen. A small amount of pre-emptive planning possesses the possibility of heavily reducing the unforseen impact. Good luck! You might need some.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:02 | 2407429 matrix2012
matrix2012's picture

This message just reminds me of following title:

This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly

by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, 2009

Reinhart and Rogoff's book provides a quantitative history of financial crises derived from over 600 years and 66 nations. The basic message from all their data is that there are remarkable similarities in today's financial crises with experience from other countries and nations. The common theme is that excessive debt accumulation by government, banks, corporations, or consumers often brings great risk. It makes government look like it is providing greater growth than it is, inflates housing and stock prices beyond sustainable levels, and makes banks seem more stable and profitable than they really are. Large-scale debt buildups make an economy vulnerable to crises of confidence - especially when the debt is short-term and needs to be refinanced (the usual case). 

Reinhart and Rogoff go on to conclude that most of these booms end badly. Outcomes include sovereign defaults (government fails to meet payments on its debt), banking crises (heavy investment losses, banking panics), exchange rate crises (Asia, Europe, Latin America in the 1990s), high inflation (a de facto default), and combinations of the preceding (1930s, today). 

What did the authors learn from their data digging? Severe financial crises share three characteristics:

1) Declines in real housing prices average 35%, stretched out over six years, while equity prices fall an average 56% over 3.5 years.

2) The unemployment rate rises an average of 7 percentage points during the down phase (average length = four years). Output falls more than 9% over a two-year period.

3) Government debt tends to explode, an average 86% in real terms. The biggest driver of this debt explosion is the collapse in tax revenues; counter-cyclical fiscal policy efforts also contribute, as well as spiking interest rates. 

Reinhart and Rogoff also identify what they find to be the best and worst (pronouncements from the Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury heads, and more than a few 'successful' academics and stock-pickers) early warning indicators of crises. Finally, the authors warn that premature self-congratulations on early successes in correcting a banking crisis may lead to complacency and an even worse state of affairs. 

-Loyd E. Eskildson

------------------------

Here are some useful refs e.g.: Crossing the Rubicon - The Decline of the American Empire at the End of the Age of Oil by Michael C. Ruppert (2004); etc. Grab it here!  (crossing_rubicon.rar, 3% rr, 14mb)

md5 hash: f19c67eab311398c7d53a5cca56bf278

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 14:47 | 2407613 Poofter Priest
Poofter Priest's picture

First thing.....I've got faith in the U.S. eventually coming out of this in a strong position. Simply because we have a crap load of natural resources. Food, energy, space, water..., (yes, some of this is in peril but we still have 'natural strength'.

I'd like to say that the author is calling this centralization 'socialism'.

I believe he is wrong. "This isn't your father's centralization....." This IS different.

I also (strongly) believe that we HAVE been in QE III. It was just going overseas.

What we can expect coming up is QE IV.

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 18:44 | 2408452 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

I have a test for you all to perform. Show your girl a Benjamin, and, a Krugerrand. Now, try rubbing your girl's hoo haw with the hundred dollar bill. Next, try doing her with a Krugerrand. Which one gave you the most value for friction coefficient ? Case closed. Think about what a roll of Krugerrands would do............

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 05:28 | 2474495 youyou208
youyou208's picture

Gucci Outlet Designer, noto per essere il migliore amico delle femmine, sono un'estensione della personalità di una donna,Gucci Borse che danno la sua classe, eleganza e senso dello stile.Il designer migliori e più recenti ispirate borse - Louis Vuitton, Gucci Sito Ufficiale di marca internazionale di design ad una frazione del costo. Sono leggeri, Louis Vuitton Outlet lunga durata e unico per colore, forma e stile. Grande abbastanza da contenere tutti gli elementi essenziali, ma abbastanza piccolo per dare glamour a qualsiasi occassion - sia esso giorno o di sera!Louis Vuitton Borse Sia che preferiate elegante o casual, glamour o minimizzato, si può avere lo stile e la scelta del colore.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 05:28 | 2474501 youyou208
youyou208's picture

Gucci Outlet Designer, noto per essere il migliore amico delle femmine, sono un'estensione della personalità di una donna,Gucci Borse che danno la sua classe, eleganza e senso dello stile.Il designer migliori e più recenti ispirate borse - Louis Vuitton, Gucci Sito Ufficiale di marca internazionale di design ad una frazione del costo. Sono leggeri, Louis Vuitton Outlet lunga durata e unico per colore, forma e stile. Grande abbastanza da contenere tutti gli elementi essenziali, ma abbastanza piccolo per dare glamour a qualsiasi occassion - sia esso giorno o di sera!Louis Vuitton Borse Sia che preferiate elegante o casual, glamour o minimizzato, si può avere lo stile e la scelta del colore.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 05:41 | 2474535 youyou208
youyou208's picture

 What se Borsa Gucci Replica lo Gucci Outlet rendono possibile per voi per permettersi un aspetto elegante,stile di vita di una principessa.Gucci Sito Ufficiale Replica Conservare Online!Le sono perfetti l'ultimo accessorio per ogni vestito.Borse Gucci Se siete stati a morire proprio quella borsetta di lusso o in borsa progettista,Scegli aspetto moderno replica per un assaggio,un'esperienza,un lifestyle.Gucci Borse ora è possibile trovare offerte incredibili sugli accessori di marca Gucci Borse Outlet a prezzi scontati fino al 70% al dettaglio.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 05:41 | 2474537 youyou208
youyou208's picture

 What se Borsa Gucci Replica lo Gucci Outlet rendono possibile per voi per permettersi un aspetto elegante,stile di vita di una principessa.Gucci Sito Ufficiale Replica Conservare Online!Le sono perfetti l'ultimo accessorio per ogni vestito.Borse Gucci Se siete stati a morire proprio quella borsetta di lusso o in borsa progettista,Scegli aspetto moderno replica per un assaggio,un'esperienza,un lifestyle.Gucci Borse ora è possibile trovare offerte incredibili sugli accessori di marca Gucci Borse Outlet a prezzi scontati fino al 70% al dettaglio.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 05:48 | 2474563 youyou208
youyou208's picture

Gucci Gucci Bags Outlet is the biggest-selling Italian brand.Will the Gucci Bags 2012 hobo be making a comeback for spring? If Gucci has anything to say about it, the answer is “yes.” Gucci Men AND Ladylike satchels and small crossbody bags have been the currency of the accessories industry for the past several seasons, so much so that Gucci Spring 2012's Gucci Sunglasses 2012 stable of chain-strapped hobos was more than a little surprising to see.Brand New Gucci Shoes Sale!2011 Style gucci outlet,60% OFF.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 05:48 | 2474566 youyou208
youyou208's picture

Gucci Gucci Bags Outlet is the biggest-selling Italian brand.Will the Gucci Bags 2012 hobo be making a comeback for spring? If Gucci has anything to say about it, the answer is “yes.” Gucci Men AND Ladylike satchels and small crossbody bags have been the currency of the accessories industry for the past several seasons, so much so that Gucci Spring 2012's Gucci Sunglasses 2012 stable of chain-strapped hobos was more than a little surprising to see.Brand New Gucci Shoes Sale!2011 Style gucci outlet,60% OFF.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!