Economic Alert: If You’re Not Worried Yet…You Should Be

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Brandon Smith from Alt-Market

Economic Alert: If You’re Not Worried Yet…You Should Be


For the past four years I have been covering the progression of the global economic crisis with an emphasis on the debilitating effects it has had on the American financial system.  Only once before have I ever issued an economic alert, and this was at the onset of the very first credit downgrade in U.S. history by S&P.  I do not take the word “alert” lightly.  Since 2008 we have seen a cycle of events that have severely weakened our country’s foundation, but each event has then been followed by a lull, sometimes 4 to 6 months at a stretch, which seems to disarm the public, drawing them back into apathy and complacency.  The calm moments before each passing storm give Americans a false sense of hope that our capsized fiscal vessel will somehow right itself if we just hold on a little longer...

I don’t have to tell most people within the Liberty Movement that this is not going to happen.  Unfortunately, there are many out there who do not share our awareness of the situation.   Debt implosions and currency devaluation NEVER simply “fade away”; they are always followed by extreme social and political strife that tends to sully the doorsteps of almost every individual and family.  The notion that we can coast through such a tempest unscathed is an insane idea, filled with a dangerous potential for sour regrets.

There are some people who also believe that the private Federal Reserve with the Treasury in tow has the ability to prolong the worst symptoms of the collapse indefinitely, or at least, until they have long since kicked the bucket and don’t have to worry about it anymore (the ‘pay-it forward to our grandkids’ crowd) .  I can say with 100% certainty that most of us will live to see the climax of the breakdown, and that this breakdown is about to enter a more precarious state before the end of this year.  You can only stretch a sun-boiled rubber band so far before it snaps completely, and America’s financial elasticity has long been melted away.

A pummeling hailstorm of news items and international developments have made the first half of 2012 almost impossible to track and analyze.  The frequency at which negative information has surfaced is almost dizzying.  However, a pattern and a recognizable motion are beginning to take shape, and, I believe, a loose timeline is beginning to form. 

At the end of January, I covered the incredible nosedive of the Baltic Dry Index (a measure of global shipping rates that signals a fall in global demand) to historic lows.  I pointed out the tendency of stocks and the general economy to crash around 8 months (sometimes a little longer) after the BDI makes such a dramatic downturn.  Mainstream analysts, of course, attributed the fall to an “overproduction of ships”, which is the same exact excuse they used when the BDI collapsed back in 2008 just before the derivatives bubble burst.  It would seem that the cable TV talking heads were wrong yet again, as the international market facade quickly evaporates right in line with the BDI’s almost prophetic knack for calling an economic derailment in advance.

Here are some of the most important reasons why every American should be prepared for much harder days, especially before the end of 2012:

The European Union Is Officially Dead In The Water

Stick a fork in er’, the EU is done!  We are talking about full scale dismantlement, likely followed by a reformation of core nations and multiple collapse scenarios of peripheral countries.  The writing is all over the wall in the wake of the latest election results in Greece and France, where, as alternative researchers have been predicting for some time, the battle between the government spending crowd and proponents of austerity has reached a fever pitch. 

The Greeks and the French are royally pissed over draconian cuts in public programs and the destruction of pensions which have been a mainstay of their economies for quite some time.  They are also furious over being sold off like collateral to the IMF and World Bank.  Rightly so.  Like the American taxpayer, the taxpayers of floundering EU nations are wrongly being held responsible for the financial mismanagement and fraud of their governments and global banks which have remained untouched and unpunished for their trespasses.  The problem is, the voters of both countries are signing on to the socialist/quasi-communist bandwagon in response.  In Greece, the Left Coalition Party, a splinter group of the traditional communist party, has now taken a primary position of power:

In France, voters have elected socialist Francois Hollande (a Bilderberg attendee), whose latest promise is to spend France into recovery through his “pro-growth agenda”:

I have no doubt that the elections of the EU are as manipulated by elitists as they are here in the U.S., and I’m sure false paradigms abound.  Have Europeans forgotten that it was overt government spending that set them on the path to calamity in the first place?  Or, are they like Americans; just desperate for any change in the ranks of leadership?  One would think that they would take note of the problems here in our country and realize that electing a socialist to replace another socialist is no way out of economic hardship.

Former officials like Nicolas Sarkozy may have claimed to be distanced from the socialist ideal, but, as with all globalist puppets, their actions did not match their rhetoric, and they have always supported policies of centralization and big government.  The French and the Greeks have essentially replaced closet collectivists with outspoken collectivists, and will see NO relief from the crisis in the Euro-zone as a result of the political reordering.  In fact, the stage has now been set for a volatile chain of dominos.  Germany, which is the only economy left holding the EU together, has been unyielding on austerity cuts.  A conflict between France and Germany is now inevitable.  Neither will compromise their position, and I can see no other eventual result than a reexamination and perhaps abandonment of the EU charter. 

How does this affect America?  Being that international banks and corporations have forced our countries into interdependency through the engineered chicanery of globalization, any collapse in Europe is going to strike hard around the world, but the worst will hit the U.S. and China.  Which is probably why China is disengaging trade away from the U.S. and the EU and focusing on other developing nations:

If you thought the Greek rollercoaster was a pain in the neck for investment markets, just wait until the whole of the EU is in a shambles! 

Spain is next in line, with a 25% official unemployment rate and a massive black market economy forming.  As I have been saying for years now, when governments disrupt the financial survival of the people, they WILL form their own alternatives, including black markets and barter markets.  It is about survival.  The Spanish government does not care much for these alternatives, though, and has now banned cash transaction over 2500 euros in a futile attempt to squeeze taxes out of the populace through digitally tracked payment methods:

Another major concern for Americans is the fact that Europeans are inching towards an abandonment of the dollar.  Francois Hollande has openly called for an end to the dollar’s world reserve status, and with a majority backing of the French people, he could easily make this happen, at least where France is concerned.  All it takes is for a few key countries to publically and completely drop the Greenback and the dollar’s reputation as a safe haven investment will be quashed.  This could very well happen before 2012 is over.

QE3 Is The End

Here is the bottom line; U.S. growth is a theater of shadows.  There has been no progress, no recovery, only the misrepresentation of statistics.  Millions of Americans have fallen off unemployment rolls because they have been jobless for too long, which lowers the unemployment rate, but does not change the fact that they are still without work.  Durable goods orders are dropping like an avalanche.  U.S. credit has been lowered yet again by rating agency Egan-Jones.  With China making bilateral trade deals in numerous countries on the condition that the dollar be dropped as the primary purchasing mechanism, and with the EU turning to economic mulch, the currency’s safety is nonexistent.  Traditional investors who cling to the idea that a falling Euro spells dollar strength will be sorely disappointed when the currency is suddenly being rejected in international currency markets.

The Federal Reserve has already stated that any signs of “relapse” into recession (the recession that we never left) will be met with all options on the table, including QE3:

I believe that QE3 will probably be announced this year (due in large part to trauma from Europe), and, that this will trigger a mass movement by foreign nations to drop the dollar as the world reserve.  QE3 will be the straw that broke the camel.  How exactly this will play out socially and politically, I do not know (I could take a good guess though).  But, the technical results are predictable.  The Fed will respond to the lack of treasury purchases by ramping up fiat printing in order to cover the ever increasing costs of the government machine.  The Greenback will immediately lose a large portion of its value, at least in terms of imported goods, causing inflation in prices.  Oil and energy prices will skyrocket if OPEC follows suit (which they will, though the Saudis may still honor dollars for a time).  Doing any traditional business will become nearly impossible, and price inflation will dominate the lives and the minds of average unprepared citizens.            

The amount of time that it will take for these difficulties to unfold is also not clear.  We are operating in uncharted territory, and dealing with a collapse scenario on a truly planetary scale.  My best advice is to assume that the avalanche will move fast.

While markets in our country have seen only mild disruptions so far this year, their solidity is predicated on a host of props and costume pieces, any one of which could pull the rug out from under America’s suspension of disbelief if it strays but a little from the illusion.  As long as the dollar holds, stocks can be infused with bailout juice through major banks.  So can major companies and even desperate state governments on the verge of bankruptcy.  The Dow will remain relatively friendly, and day traders and the public will remain happy.  As soon as the dollar comes into question, all bets are off…

Does This Mean Doom, Or Just Another Bad Day?

The real beginning of today’s collapse is tied to the events of 2008.  The pace of it has been deceptive, but also, in a way, it is a gift.  Over the past four years, I have personally seen the awakening of thousands of people that may have never had the chance if the system had gone into full spectrum breakdown right away.  The question now is, how much longer can the U.S. wobble along on one wheel?  In my view, and from the evidence I see in markets at the moment, not much longer. 

It is hard to set aside any expectations that the next leg down will be easy to digest for the populace.  The reality of our predicament is starting to hit home.  All the tax return checks have been spent.  The credit cards have been maxed.  The new cars have been sold off and traded in for ghetto-mobiles.  The good jobs have been replaced with Taco Bell slavery.  A trip to see The Avengers is now the family vacation.  And, the distractions of reality TV just aren’t buttering our bread anymore.  It’s the little things at first that really signal the financial mood of a society, as well as reveal the more vital and looming issues just over the horizon.

All indicators suggest that this year will be unlike any other before.  In 2008, we saw the first trigger events for the collapse.  In 2008/2009, we saw the creation of the bailout culture, setting the stage for inflation and dollar disintegration.  In 2010, we saw the first bilateral trade deal cutting out the dollar between China and Russia, which is now the template for trade deals all over the globe.  In 2011, we saw the first downgrade of the U.S. credit rating and the crisis in the EU become epidemic.  In 2012, I see not just another difficulty to add to the mountain, but a culmination of all these detriments to produce something entirely new; a vast and subversive realignment forcing many of us to take a more aggressive stance in the fight for an economically and socially free America.

Financial disasters have always been a convenient catalyst for a host of even more frightening obstacles, including civil unrest, and blatant totalitarianism.  This is the cusp.  It is one of those moments that people of later generations read about in awe, and sometimes horror.  The “doom” is not in the event, but in the response.  What we make of the days approaching determines the darkness that they cast upon the future.  It is a test.  It is not something to be dreaded.  It is something to be seized upon, and dealt with, as great men and women before us have done.  At the very least, we know that it is coming.  That, in itself, could well seal our success…

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Benjamin Glutton's picture

Love the picture. That's what my whole life looks like.


Long FISH.

sessinpo's picture

"Stick a fork in er’, the EU is done!"

"he Federal Reserve has already stated that any signs of “relapse” into recession (the recession that we never left) will be met with all options on the table, including QE3:

I believe that QE3 will probably be announced this year"



Nothing new here. Basically a repeat of what I said yesterday, but I explained why. 2403545

"Currency wars. It's no coincidence that the ISDA was reviewing certain policies (at some point certain EU members were going to be forced into default to damage the euro). How to maintain US dollar easing while not allowing the US dollar to plunge. Sack a competing currency, the Euro. the EU monetary experiment is finished. The bet is that the EU will print massively, strengthening the US dollar. The miscalculation is that EU will not print given the rising nationalism and fight against austerity. Massive spike in euro to cover debts. Anyway, rally on. Much more to look forward to in the last part of May and June. Meanwhile, we have JP Morgan still surpressing the PMs. Its an offensive on many battle lines and those are just a few."


RoadKill's picture

You have been following the market for 4 years. Holy hell. Your knowlege must be epic!!!!!

Seriously, you are a rookie. You just made the rookie mistake of making a big bet too soon.

Ive been doing this for 15+ years and im still a newbie.

Paitence young Padawan.

mayhem_korner's picture



By your admission, you're a newbie and therefore haven't got it figured out how do you know he's making a mistake? 

Sorta "backhanded humility"...

Joe Sixpack's picture

It's like doctors- many have worked for 30-40 years, yet they tell you they are still practicing.

pyrat's picture

We all know it's coming... the timeline can always be manipulated, look around.

trembo slice's picture

Brandon Smith is a very talented writer.  I'm not sure of his credentials when it comes to finance, but he said he has been covering the financial crisis for four years -- this is not the same as following the market for four years.  Vocabulary it's important!

I love that you have been at it for 15+ years and still consider yourself a newbie though :).  It's the right attitude!

Ljoot's picture

Central Planning taking silver to 28 and change.


poopman's picture

git yo guns gold and god in line, its the only way youll survive the imminent collapse!!!!

LawsofPhysics's picture

Unit, Corp, God, and Country and in that order.  Nothing else will matter shortly.

poopman's picture

Well atleast we get to usher in the Messiahs return if it collapses.

roadhazard's picture

I'll skip the "god" part, thank you. I have enough problems already.

kridkrid's picture

Are you the VelvetHog who gets his picks in for each of the majors?  Have you seen eddie around?

Henry Chinaski's picture

In the fresh produce section of a grocery store yesterday...  Almost nothing under $3.99, including carrots and celery. Most things were to $4.99 and up from there.  This store also happens to have a large proportion of EBT shoppers.  Food stamps and gas prices are pushing food prices through the roof. 

I'm glad to have a vegetable garden and am going to give it a lot more attention this year.   

azzhatter's picture

I shop at a local grocery store in a rather unsavory neighborhood. I can say realistically 90% of all shoppers are using the EBT card. They buy a lot of shit too. Chips, bacon, ice cream appear to be big movers. Austerity will be epic for these fuckers.

francis_sawyer's picture

Just got the 2nd crop in the ground yesterday...

Gully Foyle's picture


How many days do you need to stand there stalking shoppers until you see 90% of them? What is it months? Years?

Do the small children report you to the cops, or are you merely homeless posting from a library account.

riphowardkatz's picture

If you click the B in the comment tool bar you can turn off your bold

krispkritter's picture

Shhhh...the bold makes it easier to know when it's him commenting and skip over them...

kridkrid's picture

Austerity is collapse.  It will be epic for everyone.

Gully Foyle's picture

Henry Chinaski

You all need to stay away from the Organic scam. Cost twice as much for equal or lesser taste and nutritional value.

VelvetHog's picture

All the nutrition and quadruple the unpronounceable, carcinogenic chemicals.  You have missed the point.

Gully Foyle's picture


I'm not quite sure where you went with that.

Bleeding Fart's picture

Chicken Little: The Sky is Falling, The Sky is Falling!

I'll go out on a limb here and say that American declinism is much too in vogue these days and that the EU will take the dancefloor again in a glorious number between its two beautiful partners, Frankreich and Allemagne.

Gully Foyle's picture

Bleeding Fart

NWO needs to bring all nations to roughly the same state of political and economic equilibrium.

It's the only way it works.

No one will ever see a break up of the US. Big reset, but so what.

Russia came through it rather well.

So have other nations.

Most of the posters here just beat off to a mad max fantasy, where their great white family fights off hordes of raiders after their gold.

The reality is closer to Married with Children.

Lednbrass's picture

Russia did, but quite a few of their "republics" went their own way.

Joe Sixpack's picture

He did say "Russia did well" not "The Soviet Union" did well.

apberusdisvet's picture

Excellent piece that should be a wake-up call to the delusional.  Martial law is definitely in the cards, and so is the beginning of the end of the planet with Fukushima radiation.  The key question is :  do we go down fighting or meekly board the cattle cars?

my puppy for prez's picture

5 words and 1 number:

450 million rounds hollow-point 40 cbr

Loco Vida's picture

I am offically scared

mayhem_korner's picture



Bravo for masterful use of the language:

"capsized fiscal vessel"..."closet collectivists"..."engineered chicanery"..."sun-boiled rubber band"..."theater of shadows"


Son of Loki's picture
Bank of America Starts Mortgage Reduction Effort


Bank of America has started sending letters to thousands of homeowners in the United States, offering to forgive a portion of the principal balance on their mortgages by an average of $150,000 each.


BAC is so generous....pays to be a Deadbeat looks like. Why pay any bill anymore?

mayhem_korner's picture



BAC's only interest in mortgages is to maintain a "performing" tag on those dead-and-buried mortgages festering on their balance sheet.

azzhatter's picture

Fucking beautiful. I took a $150K loss on the sale of my home vs what I paid for it. I ate it myself. It was paid for and nobody with any sugar for me?

midgetrannyporn's picture

They won't pay that either.

My final offer is this: nothing. [/corleone]

You'll get nothing and like it. [/smails]

pods's picture

No worries, the make up will be from a federal program.

Oh, and they are just doing this so they can have standing when they foreclose.


VelvetHog's picture

BAC forgives some of your principle and then Uncle Spam through the IRS immediately demands taxes on the amount of loan that was forgiven calling it "income".  The ass fuckings will continue even if the morale doesn't improve. 

Give the house back to BAC instead.  FUGM.

Arnold Ziffel's picture

This entire attitude/system is a massive cultural/ethical problem of enormous proportions imo.

Rome fell not because their military was weak, etc...more likely their core values became rotten --corruption, fraud, greed, and so on--- starting at the top and trickling down to the "little guy" who felt, "hey, if they can do it, why not me?"

“Civilization: The West and the Rest,” by Niall Ferguson basically states the Western "civilization" is on the same downward spiral.

FreeNewEnergy's picture

I am 34 months delinquent on a BAC (via Cuntrywide) mortgage I inherited AND the bank has also paid the back property taxes. Thank you, genius banksters.

While I seriously doubt I will get a letter offering principal reduction, I'd love to see what they have to offer, since, AFAIK, they sold the loan to Fannie Mae. I wonder just how many times they expect to get paid on the same loan.

I am not paying them squat. Their foreclosure effort is 2+ years old and stagnating under the weight of their phony assignments and the rigors of NY civil procedure.

Fuck BAC. I will dance in the street when they are broken up and/or bankrupted.

Global financial collapse? Bring it. I am better prepared than 90% of people and have lived by my wits most of my life. A strong mind and willingness to survive and prosper beats any and all fiat currencies, bogus jobs and BS laws all day long.

Per aspera ad astra. Smoke 'em.

Incubus's picture

There are no universal non-mathematical laws in any human systems; we're victims of solipsism. 


The game must continue because many of us want it to continue.  The system will continue and we will continue to ignore the fact that the table is tilted and a very few are acquiring massive wealth and power at our own expense; but we will continue to play because we love the pittance that is given to us to keep us content.   This is a game of "just enough."  It may take a little finesse--but if you allow these consumerist dogs "just enough,"  they will give you their lives and everything therein. 

As long as you do not force too many of them to extreme measures, you can continue the game and the "just enough" crowd will allow you to continue the game by ignoring any less-than-legal/moral actions that must be taken to preserve the game. 


It is no longer about morality, or justice, or fairness.  It is about keeping the chips on the table because we've been conditioned to love what we're told to love. 


I don't know about you, but I've got a job.  I'm not saying that I'm part of the "just enough" crowd, but I'd rather live peacably than having to fend off consumerist, feral, and federal trash on the streets once TSHTF.


An "End" implies that there is some governing force that will adjust the operations of corrupt systems when needed.  If those systems are managed artfully, there is no 'end.'


It will continue and all of you will pray for an end that will never come.  Your "end" will be theatrical war where you go off to kill other poor idiots from other countries.  And all of you will love your slavery.  So, enough of this bullshit fantasizing of some great justice.  All of you want theatre: fantasy--fiction.  None of you want reality, and trust me, reality isn't nice. 

The reason why we can't have honest and fair systems is because none of us want it.  Truth is hard to deal with; genuine justice has a great price.  The system is manifest of our own desires to be governed and told what to do with the fictions of higher values as some backset which we look to assure ourselves that simulation of truth and justice and fairness is just as good as the real thing. 


All you fools just want theatre and you're too damned stupid to know it. 


GCT's picture

Spot on incubus.  Most do not want reality of the true SHTF scenario, some of us have actually seen this having work in some coutries where the real shit did hit the fan.   The whole system from top to bottom is based on greed and will continue down this road.   The best one can hope for once they realize the system is here to stay or if they create a new system it will end up being just like the last one is to do their best to play the system and try to stay ahead of the game.

 Guns, bullets and canned food will not save you.  This will only prolong the agony.  Now being prepared for a disaster is smart, but will only sustain you for a certain amount of time.  Gold will not save you and I like my physical.  No matter how it plays out in the end you will need a community of like minded people to keep people going.  Guess what you will have a mini form of government.   Lately the doom and gloom is over the top.  Maybe because Rauh talks about some articles on ZH to back up his rhetoric.

Junk me all you like all financial systems of the past have collapsed.  This one will collapse as well but no one here can predict it.  I suggest you learn a skill using your hands if your worried about total collapse. 

kridkrid's picture

Is that you, Lloyd?  I don't want to sell anything, buy anything, or process anything as a career. I don't want to sell anything bought or processed, or buy anything sold or processed, or process anything sold, bought, or processed, or repair anything sold, bought, or processed. You know, as a career, I don't want to do that. 

FreeNewEnergy's picture

Well, incubus, you're almost right and your prose is exceptional. A+

However, there are some who actually will survive a holocaust or "end" to the ponzi and absence of the rule of law. I am one of them and I'm fast closing in on 60, so I actually remember when a handshake was a contract, judges weren't bought and sold on the cheap, banks paid 5% interest and most people actually had what was then known as "disposable income."

Since 9/11 and more intensely since 2008, our government and media have failed badly and sorely need replacing. I, for one, would love to go back to an era when prices didn't fluctuate wildly over days and weeks, when putting gas in your car didn't bust your budget and when a decent job paid for more than just bare necessities.

A reset or an end would be catastrophic for many, but a period for those with an eye for value and the future a chance to prosper. Not everybody is fooled, though I get the feeling that you fear change more than nearly anyone else around here.

Buzzworthy's picture

I'm long canned food, PMs, and ammunition.  Wouldn't want to be living in a big city when the SHTF that's for sure.

mayhem_korner's picture



U prolly already got 'em, but make sure you're long manual can openers.  ;)

chunga's picture

If you have a "totin' chip" old Cub Scout knives are good.

Modern can-openers fall apart after a few cans of beans.

yogibear's picture

Greece, Italy and Spain, want to get back at the other EU members? Just start printing Euros by force. Flood the other members with the Euro!

You have piles of free money, just print it and pay back the other members that tried to screw you. The other countries that will be forced to take QEing.




francis_sawyer's picture

The foto in the article was of me & all my damn gold & silver was with me on that kayak trip...