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Fed Minutes: "Easing May Be Needed If Recovery Falters"

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Key highlights:

  • SEVERAL ON FOMC SAID EASING MAY BE NEEDED IF RECOVERY FALTERS
  • MOST' FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAW GRADUAL DECLINE IN JOBLESS RATE
  • MOST FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAW INFLATION SUBSEQUENTLY AT-BELOW 2%
  • MOST FOMC MEMBERS SAW UNEMPLOYMENT ABOVE TARGET IN LATE 2014
  • SOME PARTICIPANTS SAW RISKS INFLATION PRESSURES COULD BUILD

Actually, nothing new in the minutes which are largely a rehash of the official statement already released. The key paragraphs:

The Committee also stated that it will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability. Several members indicated that additional monetary policy accommodation could be necessary if the economic recovery lost momentum or the downside risks to the forecast became great enough.

 

Committee members discussed the desirability of providing more clarity about the economic conditions that would likely warrant maintaining the current target range for the federal funds rate and those that would indicate that a change in monetary policy was appropriate. Doing so might help the public better understand the conditionality in the Committee’s forward guidance. The Committee also discussed the relationship between the Committee’s statement, which expresses the collective view of the Committee, and the policy projections of individual participants, which are included in the SEP. The Chairman asked the subcommittee on communications to consider possible enhancements and refinements to the SEP that might help better clarify the link between economic developments and the Committee’s view of the appropriate stance of monetary policy.

 

The need to compensate for a substantial period during which the policy rate was constrained by the zero bound was also cited by a few members as a possible reason to maintain a very low level of the federal funds rate for a longer period than would  otherwise be the case.

The minutes - link.

 

 


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Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:04 | Link to Comment razorthin
razorthin's picture

Gold on

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:09 | Link to Comment razorthin
razorthin's picture

What, doubt me?  You should have been watching the mining index leap faster than everything else on the release.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:11 | Link to Comment clones2
clones2's picture

Will someone please tell me when this "recovery" is supposed to start....

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:19 | Link to Comment candyman
candyman's picture

Government gone wild since the "recovery" started

http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=xOAgT8L_BqQ&feature=player_embedded

 

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:34 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Wait a minute, I thought the faltering was the recovery?

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 22:56 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Ah, now I get it, the faltering's in full recovery.

Now it makes sense...

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:43 | Link to Comment Chaffinch
Chaffinch's picture

It will start, for you, as soon as you start believing their phoney statistics.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:47 | Link to Comment Sam Clemons
Sam Clemons's picture

Or if there was a "recovery," did the easing actually enable it?  Could it have been just due for a cyclical rebound?  Could it have been because of $30bbl oil at the depths of the recession?

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:09 | Link to Comment ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

I guess by using the word "recovery", they were not referring to disposable household income ex-government transfers.............

 

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:13 | Link to Comment DeltaCharlie
DeltaCharlie's picture

Minutes also stated that one Fed member wanted QE now! .... Would that be Ben Bernanke! Then, yes, gold on!

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:30 | Link to Comment Aziz
Aziz's picture

I think Charles Evans.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:36 | Link to Comment Marginal Call
Marginal Call's picture

Down 21 points.  Buying op.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:37 | Link to Comment stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

one of these times, the QE bullshit won't work

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:06 | Link to Comment Aziz
Aziz's picture

It kind of sickens me how markets are trading FOMC minutes instead of fundamentals. 

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:06 | Link to Comment guinea
guinea's picture

Welcome to the Politburo Economy.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:07 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

LOL.

That is fucking absurd. Like Camus level absurd. +1 Good sir.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:07 | Link to Comment tallen
tallen's picture

Since when has the market ever traded on fundamentals?!? Hahahaha

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:14 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Prior to the S&L crisis, more or less.  Prior to 1913 nearly absolutely.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:22 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

At least some of the outcomes from the S&L crisis were bank failures, and a number of bankers, politicians, and persons of power going to jail.  Absolutely no satisfaction for savers and responsible behavior this time around.  Where is Jon Corzine?

PMs shining more than ever.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:08 | Link to Comment Desert Irish
Desert Irish's picture

Why bother trading on fundamentals when just rumours of QEIII will apease the masses......

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:10 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

The New Normal, Sir.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:12 | Link to Comment Deep79
Deep79's picture

The scary thing is we have 0% interest rates, record stimulus, SP sitting at 1330 as i write and the "Market" needs more QE. We are done people. QE or no, it's over, and we are just hanging on by a thread. I am still of the belief that the next QE will be the final nail in the coffin. That is why FED is so hesitant to launch it.

 

 

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:22 | Link to Comment barroter
barroter's picture

Agreed.  If the Free Market can't get off the  gov't respirator and breathe on it's own...perhaps time to yank the intubation tube altogether.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:31 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

And what is really scary is we are watching live in Greece, Italy; Portugal; and Spain....exactly how we are going to die.....it will be the people vs the elites...they are lying...the people are begining to realize it...and they are changing their parties to the extremes...

What I am more worried about are the countries and people not in the Western world.....what are the Arabs doing..the Russians..the Chinese...the Asians..South Americans....are they going to bail out the western world or are they going to change ships and start their own "other world economy"...

I know you are going to say.."bu but but...we are 9/10 of the worlds economy" or something like that.."and they can´t leave us".....well in 10 years we will be not...and they are thinking long term....we are thinking the next election...

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 19:42 | Link to Comment Iwanttoknow
Iwanttoknow's picture

Youngman,very perceptive.people in those countries may be incline to tell us to fuck off and liberate ourselves.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:45 | Link to Comment Chaffinch
Chaffinch's picture

You're dead right Aziz. Didn't markets used to be something to do with the efficient allocation of capital to the best companies?

Now they are a sick joke.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:50 | Link to Comment Sam Clemons
Sam Clemons's picture

Makes you wonder why they couldn't just say, "we are going to buy everything and print money for everyone" and the stock market would go up indefinitely, we'd all be rich, and streets would be paved with gold.  

I guess not enough people in the world truly believe there is no such thing as a free lunch. 

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:06 | Link to Comment Tim Knight from...
Tim Knight from Slope of Hope's picture

"MOST FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAW GRADUAL DECLINE IN JOBLESS RATE" - - did the others forget their spectacles?

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:09 | Link to Comment surf0766
surf0766's picture

No the others knew the jobless rate number was BS.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:08 | Link to Comment Conman
Conman's picture

Oh yeahhhh - I put my hand up on your hip when i dip you dip we dip.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZPQdZLyHYE

BTFD in effect!

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:06 | Link to Comment Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

ONE POINTLESS COMMENTER SEES ALL OF THIS AS BEING 'EXTREMELY BULLISH'

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:09 | Link to Comment midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

Like there was ever any doubt. They will use unemployment as an excuse to goose banker bonuses again. QE to the moon bitchez.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:13 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Come  print already. I'm eager to pay off my mortgage with an ounce of Gold...better yet print enough so I can pay it off with an ounce of silver.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:08 | Link to Comment the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

"..EASING MAY BE NEEDED IF RECOVERY FALTERS."

Thats new and different.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:17 | Link to Comment Practical Irrat...
Practical Irrationality's picture

"If recovery falters" meaning if the banks want more crack they will have to lower the markets and show worse economic numbers.  The banks will let the market down.  The Feds will continue to fake the numbers but now with a bias toward the negative.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:19 | Link to Comment tiwimon
tiwimon's picture

What recovery? For a recovery to falter, there has to be an recovery and beyond Wall Street there has been NO recovery

Oh I see clearly now, not our recovery, you and me and joe sixpack on Main St, this is about Wall Street's miragical recovery which is faltering

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:09 | Link to Comment pupton
pupton's picture

What just crushed silver???

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:09 | Link to Comment ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture

What, or who? I wonder....

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:13 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

What is continuing to crush silver?

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:21 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Paper crumbles easily when it rests on nothing.

More resilient when it rests on a base of 1000toz metal bars.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:22 | Link to Comment pupton
pupton's picture

Well I am finally convinced that I am going to buy the dip here.  Just picked up 100 oz from NWT Mint @$28.58 each delivered (3 months from now unfortunately).  If we lose support under $26 I guess I'll have to scratch my head and double down around $22 or whereever it lands.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:41 | Link to Comment ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture

That Sir is what we call staging in and is a brilliant strategy from here as low as they choose to drive the paper price. Nice work.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:56 | Link to Comment ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture

Ag has gotten smacked after each of the last 4 FOMC meetings. Where nothing meaningful is said. It's perception management (The Fed Speaks, Tremble in fear all ye PM owners) and revenge for the times before that where PM's shot higher anytime the degenerate bankster BS Bernanke opened his fool mouth. Just b/c he's totally mock-able does not mean this Khazarian Kraz-ela may be mocked!

It's also a terrific way to make huge money for your friends (who're on the email notification list) while robbing honest investors. And not a single Iranian anywhere in the mix.... which is just so odd really, as it is they who are clearly our biggest, most deadly threat. Umm... right?

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 15:18 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

the more Ag is crushed, the more the TPTB fear gauge is spiking

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:11 | Link to Comment Appleseed
Appleseed's picture

i buy 3 100z bars of silver, check zerohedge, BAM fed wants to easzzz
HAHAHAHHAA   all the way to the bank baby

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:10 | Link to Comment SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

Yah, like Ahhnold says " Yah, you pump it up, Benny! "  " To Infinity..............And, Beyond! " Way to go, fucking asshats.

Bullish on gold,silver, lead, copper, brass, charcoal, sulphur, saltpeter.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:13 | Link to Comment ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture
"Easing May Be Needed If Recovery Falters"

"Blood May be needed during open-heart surgery"

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:11 | Link to Comment kaa1016
kaa1016's picture

This market is going to tank. Correlations are going to one. Go long vol...

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:11 | Link to Comment pupton
pupton's picture

By the way, is the FOMC coding a message that further carnage will be required in the markets before any action?  What levels must things sink to?

 

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:13 | Link to Comment TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

We may need to print money if not printing money is no longer required.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:13 | Link to Comment Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

I had to read that 3 times to get it lol.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:46 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

O_o

lol

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:14 | Link to Comment Madcow
Madcow's picture

blah blah blah = deflation, deflation, deflation.

Money talks, bullshit walks.

 

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:16 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Is it worth it of gold goes to 1200 if AAPL takes a ride down to 400 with it? I say Yes!

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:15 | Link to Comment catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

That little bump from the FOMC minutes didn't last long. MORE MINUTES, PLEASE!!!

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:21 | Link to Comment Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"SEVERAL ON FOMC SAID EASING MAY BE NEEDED IF RECOVERY FALTERS"

"That little bump from the FOMC minutes didn't last long."

I saw that too.  It's like the halflife of effectivity of FOMC statements is getting shorter and shorter.  They may have to actually DO something one day.....even if it's only symbolic.

 

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:16 | Link to Comment citta vritti
citta vritti's picture

the easings will continue until morale improves

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:15 | Link to Comment Bill D. Cat
Bill D. Cat's picture

They need to kill the markets to save the markets .

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:16 | Link to Comment kralizec
kralizec's picture

How are the presses doing?

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:18 | Link to Comment SilverCoinLover
SilverCoinLover's picture

Well, that was fun. The Fed minutes gave the market a hard-on for about...ten minutes!

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:18 | Link to Comment in4mayshun
in4mayshun's picture

"Blah Blah, Blah Blah blah-blah-blah....

(We'll tell you what were thinking the day after we do it.)

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:19 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

"Easing May Be Needed If Recovery Falters"

Your words are a vaporous rumor that puffs up but does nothing.

You might have to try the Drones, DHS, TSA and so on this time.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:19 | Link to Comment Monkeyfister
Monkeyfister's picture

It must be nice to have "High-Roller VIP" status at the Casino.

 

It's extra awesome to have an ATM next to the roulette table that regularly spits out free money from the Fed, Treasury, or the deposits and investment accounts of your clients to let you keep on doubling down.

Lucky them.

The rest of us, down here, just get to suck on it.

 

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:19 | Link to Comment GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

The Fed is printing $100 billion each month?

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:19 | Link to Comment JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Why even publish these Communists? A modern day Pravda, that's all they are.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:23 | Link to Comment MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

The US clowns are back in the news!  Sure inflation is very low if you dont buy anything.  I have come to the point where I beleieve nothing that comes from anyone that has any connection to this goverment.  It is sickening to watch this intentional deception.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:22 | Link to Comment junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

What recovery? I'm confused now...

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:26 | Link to Comment Kokulakai
Kokulakai's picture

They've been blowin' recovery up our azz for a year

Regardless of reality, if the Fed wants this to be recovery... it is.

Key statement in my opinion:

"if agreement is
not reached on a plan for the federal budget, a sharp
fiscal tightening could occur at the start of 2013."

 

Now, what is Bohner threatning?

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:32 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

Cash is King.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:49 | Link to Comment engineertheeconomy
engineertheeconomy's picture

It was up until about 5 minutes ago. Now 100 oz bars are king

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 15:04 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

Mittens Romney's mandate is to buy up all American assets for his overlords on the cheap with a strong US Dollar.

Romney's mandate is to do a ROLL UP of the American, heck maybe the global economy.

Vicious Wall Street Style.

Diluted currency won't go very far in that strategy.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:54 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

Now, what is Bohner threatning?

Exactly this....................ZERO more $$$$$ for Benny, unless matching cuts to go with it.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:31 | Link to Comment dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

Ooooh, PM buying dip ahead!

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:32 | Link to Comment Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Bernanke hints, the world goes crazy.

Elizabeth "The Duke of Hazard" said that credit should be relaxed ... again. Didn't the US just get nuked by doing this?

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/05/16/dukes-of-hazard-fed-hints-at-more-easing-elizabeth-duke-wants-relaxation-of-credit-standards/

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:38 | Link to Comment Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

Whatever the news, gold is crashing.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:37 | Link to Comment guinea
guinea's picture

The thing is all the state government pensions are tied to stock market performance. Hence the number one priority of this administration is to pump up the equity markets.  These pensions need 8-10% returns to stay solvent as they are woefully underfunded.  You the taxpayers get to hold the bag of shit.  This is what happens when you have Democrats "negotiating" with public sector unions on the taxpayers' behalf.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:38 | Link to Comment Clowns to the l...
Clowns to the left_ jokers to the right's picture

They're easing all right. Easing that red hot poker right up the everyday American's ass.

They just needed a little rally to keep things perky in the face of global financial chaos until the Failbook IPO.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:47 | Link to Comment surf0766
surf0766's picture

It is like watching the ball drop on New year's .

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:38 | Link to Comment TonyCoitus
TonyCoitus's picture

A spoonful of sugar helps the medicine go down.  Hopium, hospice, burial.  Easy as 1, 2, 3.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:52 | Link to Comment Sans-culottes
Sans-culottes's picture

Move along nothing to see here but failure from Benny Boy...Why are you not distracted with American Idol...lol. Fed=Failure

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:54 | Link to Comment DavosSherman
DavosSherman's picture

"If"

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 14:55 | Link to Comment warchopper
warchopper's picture

Here is a quote from Krugman which essentially says the Fed is ineffective:

"It took a gigantic sacrifice to get inflation down, with no real sign that the Fed’s credibility made any difference."

 


Wed, 05/16/2012 - 21:45 | Link to Comment All Out Of Bubblegum
All Out Of Bubblegum's picture

Besides Krugman and Bernanke, who else thinks the Fed has cred?

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 15:00 | Link to Comment KandiRaverHipster
KandiRaverHipster's picture

meanwhile all the newly printed money is FedEx'd out of the country

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 15:03 | Link to Comment ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture

Sound and Fury, signifying nothing.

Except another 4% hit on silver to accompany FOMC day. What a fanatastic buy price they gave me, thank you guys and gal!

Please do it again next month fellas, I'm really in no hurry over here. And I know you are.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 15:09 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Its only words and words are all I have to ramp the market todaaaaay.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 15:13 | Link to Comment earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

How much do these jackals earn for producing the same minutes for every meeting?

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 15:12 | Link to Comment moonman
moonman's picture

If at first you don't succeed...try try again.

The FED version:

If at first you don't succeed try the same exact thing again, then try something a little different and if that doesn't work just try the first thing again.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:10 | Link to Comment Frastric
Frastric's picture

Big question; are the Fed talking about GDP recovery or DOW recovery? Probably DOW recovery... Inflation whoring bastards.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:28 | Link to Comment Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

You got that?  If the recovery falters, they'll print.  If deflation gets serious, they'll print ^2.  They may pause, but the endgame is spelt P.R.I.N.T.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:51 | Link to Comment HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

They are gonna not just print but build a great gleaming city.

Never mind the rot and stink down here among the roaring thunder of the presses.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 18:07 | Link to Comment MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

My personal recovery has been weak of late, so Mr Fed, can you please add a couple of zeros to my accounts too?

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 21:44 | Link to Comment All Out Of Bubblegum
All Out Of Bubblegum's picture

I used to have an uncle that went to AA and drank after meetings. He always told me he was in recovery.

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