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Gallup Finds Obama, Romney In Dead Heat As Daily Tracking Begins, With Independents Leaning Toward GOP
Now that the GOP primary is essentially over, and Mitt Romney is set, for better or worse, to be the Republican frontrunner, Gallup has launched its daily tracking poll to keep an eye on each one's presidential prospects. Not surprisingly, the result is a dead heat. "Mitt Romney is supported by 47% of national registered voters and Barack Obama by 45% in the inaugural Gallup Daily tracking results from April 11-15. Both Obama and Romney are supported by 90% of their respective partisans." What is curious is that "The crucial voting bloc of independents breaks toward Romney by 45% to 39%, giving the GOP challenger his slight overall edge." So will Obama now be forced to make a moderate push to attract what will likely be the critical voter constituency in November? We will find out over the next few months.
This is not surprising: as we showed previously American voter apathy is the second highest among all developed countries, better only compared to South Korea. Even so, less than 50% of the population will participate in an active election process. In other words, the majority of Americans is silent. And as is well known, of the balance of voters, the split along party lines is almost straight down the middle. Just as the onetwo-party political system likes it.
This is how Gallup defines its methodology.
These results are the first from Gallup Daily tracking of registered voters' general election preferences, which began on April 11 and will be reported daily on Gallup.com on the basis of continuous five-day rolling averages. This initial report is based on interviews with 2,265 registered voters, and highlights the potential closeness of this year's race, with Romney and Obama essentially in a statistical tie. Gallup's previous general election trial heat, from a national poll conducted March 25-26, showed Obama with a slight 49% to 45% lead over Romney.
Gallup began tracking the general election on Wednesday, April 11, after Rick Santorum suspended his campaign for the Republican nomination, making Romney the all-but-assured GOP nominee.
The race breaks down into the expected patterns by party, with 90% of Democrats supporting Obama, and 90% of Republicans supporting Romney. The Republican results show that despite the rancor and divisiveness of the Republican campaign, the vast majority of Republicans are backing Romney in the head-to-head battle with Obama, as they have in ballot tests earlier this year.
Gallup's conclusion:
History shows that the candidates' positioning in the spring of an election year is not necessarily good at forecasting the election outcomes. For example, in an April 20-22, 1992, Gallup poll, incumbent President George H.W. Bush was ahead with 41% of the vote, compared with 26% for Bill Clinton and 25% for Ross Perot. And in an April 11-14, 1980, poll, incumbent President Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan by 42% to 34%, with John Anderson receiving 18% support. Both Bush and Carter, of course, ultimately lost their re-election bids.
Still, the current results, and the results that will follow as Gallup tracks the race on a daily basis, provide an excellent, scientific way to understand the dynamics of the election campaign, and the impact of foreseen and unforeseen events in the weeks and months ahead. And, at this point, the results show that the 2012 presidential election is shaping up to be a close race.
What is odd is why nobody, ahem Ron Paul, is willing to target that 50%+ segment of the population that is utterly disgusted with either party... That we don't understand.
Finally, as a reminder...
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Gallup also left-out that Ron Paul would beat-out both candidates. Once Obama realizes he's not gonna win reelection, WW3 begins in Iran. Bank on it.
<sigh> Yes, you are probably correct.
Criminal Charges In Case of MF Global's Missing Money Is Still A Possibility
"... prosecutors are weighing granting immunity to Edith O'Brien, a former assistant treasurer at the bankrupt brokerage firm."
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/gasparino-criminal-charges-in-case-of-mf-global-missing-money-is-still-a-possibility-2012-4?nr_email_referer=1&utm_source=Triggermail&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Clusterstock%20Select&utm_campaign=Clusterstock%20Select%20Mondays%202012-04-16#ixzz1sEXpSPT4Interesting, gee, any chance that the prosecution/execution of Corzine was the plan all along? Inquiring minds want to know. Perhaps simply the promise of a prosecution/execution will do? Works for QE.
Corzine is an untouchable former squid partner.
He knows ALL the burial places.
Fatal accident or suicide is his near future !
Pre-election=prosecution
Post-election=pardon
Yup yup. Dog-n-pony show. The groundlings will eat it up.
yeah right...even if he is charged, he will get off. Repeat after me: WALL STREET BANKERS DO NOT GO TO JAIL. Particularly ones that worked at Goldman....
National Polls are only good for a sense of the horse race - it will be decided by each of the 50 state election results.
You can win the popular vote and still lose the election, just go ask Al Gore who got more votes but lost in the Electoral College.
Not even that. It will be decided by Diebold.
I'm not even a tin-foil-hatter and I believe it.
Okay maybe I am a little bit of a tinny. But listen, you'd have to be insane not to be a little bit paranoid these days.
Yep. I'm not a tinny either but watching the 2000 elections - mmmm- something wasn't right. Exit polls did not agree with final results. And then the Supreme Court decision. I think that was the moment the US started sliding towards a facist type of government.
And yes I believed in a little bit of hope - but very quickly disappointed.
If I was still living in the US guessing I would vote for the best local candidate.....
Puppet #1 or puppet #2.
Hmmm.....will need to think long and hard about this.
Rmoney...
Paul should run as an independent
What's worth more? A poll in April for an election in November or a freshly printed greenback?
No different than the Crips and Bloods, they even use the same colors.
Two lame ducks = a black swan.
You guys are probably tired of me saying this, but one more time: In today's world it's no longer "Liberals vs Conservatives", or "GOP vs DEMs". It's US vs THEM. We're all Icelanders now.
Agree, and Obama is such a snake in the grass, he will do anything, anythiing, to get re-elected. Maybe double the food stamp quota or ask for 99 weeks again for those unemployed. It is war, and as much as Romney will not change anything, Obama and his inner circle of czars scare me.
Let the games begin Mighty Caesar! To the Death my Lord!
Bullish "good" news for QE3, if that is your thing. Obama will start the Big Give-Away no later than August 1. And just probably July 4, that being the best day to exploit patriotism in America.
The first time caught in voter fraud. Don't count every GOP election this year, every state had incidents of voter fraud and election rigging.
Ron Paul picked up more delegate from Santorum than Romney. In Missouri Ron Paul supporters pushed a do over and win the states delegates. CBS is reporting Romney won all of Colorado when we know for a fact there was a Ron Paul landslide victory in Denver.
Ron Paul, End the Fed and reclaim liberty
I Hope The SHTF before the election. I dont want either of those dumbasses. Just crash this FIAT thing already. If the FIAT system is in trouble then Ron Pauls message might get through to more people. Frustrating!
Whatever, it's the same either way. Bitt Rombama.
How about we just have Obama lose 48/47. Then Romney offers Obama the VP seat. That way the blacks can be somewhat happy.
Then the banksters can have a hispanic cap Romney, when Zimmerman is set free after six months of showboat trials both whites and blacks can unite for a nice little race war against the Hispanics. Once that is over a white guy can cap Obama. The blacks will riot and then the whites will have no choice but to take them out.
Without the welfare underclass, the US government will save at least $1.5 trillion at the federal level and hundreds of billions in every state. The budgets will return to surplus and everything will be fixed, even California.
See, having no choice can end up with positive results after all.
National polls mean nothing. The only polls that matter are the polls in about 12 swing states. If everyone in California votes for BHO, it adds nothing to his prospects.
The federal government (and Presidential elections) do not operate as a democracy thankfully -- although unfortunately the forces have been moving us that direction for the past 100 years.
100% voter turnout and we would still have the same two shitty choices. Why not be apathetic? At least I know I won't be voting for either one of those losers.
Instead I will vote Libertarian. It may just be sybolic, but no one will get my vote by default.
Your symbolic vote will mean nothing to our Overlords in Spain:
http://patriotupdate.com/articles/what-is-scytl-why-should-you-be-very-v...
And
http://www.drudgereport.com/flash1.htm
That Onion vid isn't too far off.
Ron Paul 2012
For the first time in a long time I will be exercising my right NOT to vote.
Reason #1 ~ it doesn't make any difference
Reason #2 ~ it doesn't make any difference.
Can anyone explain to me like i am a 10 year old why Romney and Obama aren't 2 sides of the same coin.
Other that the all important pro-choice issue, which must states have sought to erode all on their own.
For Clarity - last week Arizona legislated that conception occurs TWO WEEKS before sex. Tennesse has legislated (as part of its abstinence only sex education in public schools), that handholding is a GATEWAY to sex and pregnancy. And because handholding is such a dangerous activity, teachers CANNOT even demonstrate the activity in the class room.
simple lizzy...support of States rights for a starter...many more...
Americans are dumb as fuck as a whole, proved easily by evidence in this story.
OK everyone who believes Romney is not an establishment, fiat-loving, central bank-supporting, fool, just like Obama is, raise their hands!
And....CNN finds a different result:
(CNN) - President Barack Obama holds a nine-point lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney thanks in part to the perception that the president is more likeable and more in touch with the problems facing women and middle class Americans, according to a new national poll.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/04/16/cnn-poll-gender-gap-and-likeability-keep-obama-over-romney/
minorities vote for obama because he is one, and women vote for him because he is younger and cuter. He wins in a landlside!! Not that I care. only a fool thinks there is a dime's bit of difference between the two political parties where it counts (i.e. banksters and such). Or didn't you notice that you were living in Bush's 3rd term?
Sheriff Joe Arpaio's Posse has proved that Obama's birth certificate posted online by the White House is a forgery. Now, a White House lawyer admits that it is indeed a forgery but claims that it's not important because Obama is qualified to hold the office of POTUS purely on the basis of political popularity. Now Obama and Holder are harrassing Sheriff Joe with lawsuits and on-the-ground federal monitors. George Soros has pledged $10 millions to defeat Sheriff Joe's re-election to county sheriff of Maricopa. Let's not let these leftest thugs get away with this crap. Enough is enough. Send what you can to Sheriff Joe. He's putting his life on the line for us and the rule of law. Let's stand with him. I sent $100 and I'm proud to do it.
We MUST stand up for him! SELECT HERE TO STAND UP FOR SHERIFF JOE! For America,Minuteman PAC
Nowhere was voter apathy better displayed than in this year's (R) primaries. Based on the "dead heat" Gallop claim, it would appear the empty stadium that cheered for Romney and the record low R turnout in virtually every primary this year are facts that have been shoved down the memory hole.
Polling is but one more msm manipulation device. I'm sorry ZH found it necessary to buy into that form of social control.
At a minimum, ZHers should carefully vet their polling sources. Gallop is about as reliable as, say, NAHB. However, polls can influence opinion, and can "push" people one way or another. In that sense, phony polling data can have an effect, unlike phantom home sales.
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-XWDAgU-f2-k/T4vLKQO-9nI/AAAAAAAASl0/mZJAB6iMwYE/w497-h373/552866_10150747099647593_119723022592_9318709_1376525232_n.jpg
(credit to danny6114)
it's supposed to be a close race. the media circus demands a close race. the term horse race is actually an accurate description. when a racing secretary puts a race together he tries to find horses which are evenly matched, (and in handicap races he actually assigns weight to the best horses to give the others a better chance) thus offering the public a betting opportunity. now we could talk a long time about what they're selling, but i think you all know. since there's no difference between these two to begin with, why shouldn't they be even? the real question is who gets to the diebold machines, and how many of his party are on SCOTUS if things get a bit dicey. but remember Obama is out of Chicago, famous for mayor Daley and the 1960 ballot stuffing orgy which brought JFK to office. his grandson was Obamas chief of staff?
but America loves a winner, cannot stand a loser (Gen Patton) so Al Gore is regularly bashed, Nixon was bashed, gave a checkers speech and then came back with his own dirty tricks, which led to McGovern, who isn't too highly thought of either. best advice to both these guys is just win baby (Al Davis, who also said "the quarterback has to go down, and he has to go down HARD) in the days before coaches could lose their job for that.
I wish I had more time in my day ... I scanned over the headline and thought it said that Obama and Romney were in heat, so I wasted too much time reading it.
News flash: polling shows that in a blind taste test absent physical cues, American people find Obama/Romney policy differences in a non exsistant dead heat.
Coke versus Pepsi
Markets rise, Obama wins.
Markets dive, Romney wins.
http://bullandbearmash.com/index/djia/weekly/
Even if the GOP had a chance in 2008, they had no chance. Obama knows this and is why he is impaling the USD. Low USD keeps markets up - for now.
sing me that song you bitch
I appologise in advance. I have worked Presidential election campaigns back to the Clinton era, I will tell you without a shadow of doubt in my mind, these numbers are manufactured.
I have seen and witnessed polling numbers manufactured and submitted to Rasmussen etc.. poll numbers before, it's not hard and the values are not self audited before the numbers are released for public consumption. There is no way Obama is tied or even ahead of Rob-ney as in refered in the public opinion polls. Their shaping *opinions* once again.
Here is an interesting observation made by an independant vote tallying source. And mind you, these are only the primaries. Read:
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0ByJAC-sfXwumZzI2bVlON2VTMnFyYVZZSnpDYnNyQQ/edit?pli=1
For whatever it's worth, "they" will never let Ron Paul near the White House. It's a cruel Hope and Change joke.. on us.
I was complicit back in the day when I witnessed "vote flipping" aka voter fraud in certain precinct's I audited back in the day. I turned a blind eye to it because the outcome just happened to be within the favorable choice for the outcome our Campaign prefered. Shame on me, I should have spoke up back then and I didn't.
Search: Madelenie Albrights plan for an October suprise from '04 for G.W. Bush. It may give you, the reader insight that Presidential elections are not left in the hands of the public. This is predetermined policy. Instead, Diebold was routed and the company built a "back door" to their vote fliping program back then, but, that was an actual Presidential Campaign. Gore actually won. I don't know what was scarier?
My Grandfather used to tell me, Tiger, "It's not the peoples will that matters, it's the people that count the votes that matters" so true. Ron Paul is favored and wanted by main stream Americans right now but that will never reflect in the "Pollings" data.
In a post Glass Steagall economy, you do not vote in a President since JFK, there are too many secrets and too much power to leave a Presidential election in your hands. Your just trained to like a certain personality by the MSM and the ficticious polling numbers.
At this moment, I can tell you Ron Paul himself in a way is decieving the citizens of the United States because he is promising something he knows he can't deliver upon. Love him to death, but he is not being 100% true to the American people. Any Congressman or Senator that mentions the word "Constitution" ever! Run, don't walk. I can explain further if requested.
I am close enough to this action that I was told 16 months ago that Romney was tapped to become the 2012 Candidate and to have Chris Christi on board as his V.P. months afterwards, but Romney will not become the President. He is just a back up plan. Romney is a RINO that will sell you, the American people everything Obama couldn't just in case their plans may not pan out. Obama is a self appointed Dictator right now.
Nothing happens without a plan. But, the simple truth of the matter. Obama stay's , sorry.
yeah ok
The data and analysis is outstanding - this information needs to be seen by more people. It mathematically proves that the voter fraud exists, and the exact equations used can be derived.
When working in statistics a confidence interval is used to explain the certainty of results, with for example a 95% confidence interval indicating you are 95% confident of the relationship (the conclusion). The information included in the above analysis indicate a 100% confidence interval (or if you like, 99.99999999999999%) - in other words, there is no doubt that the vote is rigged - proved mathematically.
I was dead tired when I wrote that post above. Sorry, it's a little F-ed up.
The most important political event the U.S. will ever have again will be Ron Paul's speech at the Convention.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYOzkANghXU
...if the bastards do not prevent it from happening. Lol.
romney has a chance but without karl rove and dick cheney, not so much. but if mitt were to openly tell the truth about geo w bush and the pocket dictatorship, he might have a chance. you can't tear down obama without tearing down the criminals he failed to prosecute, double whammy, point obama
Meanwhile in Canada ... unrest over Peter Mckay's role in F-35 fighters. We do have some semblance of a democracy up here and I'm guessing he will be sacrificed. But this is so Canadian - love it! The Canadian Beaver Band -- huh or eh?
For the election - get in early, and disable the Diebold machines - pour in some liquid, or just bash them dead. Sure, its not likely to solve the problem in the short term - but at least it is a protest, better than lying down.
Urine for a surprise at the convention. Ron Paul's getting delegates, and flip Mitt doesn't have the 1144. Splain how he's the nominee. yeah I know the correlation between the slope on Paul's votes is -0.99 to Mitt's in larger and larger precincts. I know RP got -16,000 (yes the sign is right) in a Florida county. I know the GOP is exactly what they accuse their frenemies of being, cheating stealing fucks. So what.
"It's all about the delegates"
"The Revolution won't be televised"
"It'll be won by an irate and tireless minority"
- Campaign for Liberty
Guess what, Barack Hussein Obama and Mitt "Flip" Romney are one and the same. A big ass advert for a real Liberty candidate. Any liberty candidate for that matter. It doesn't have to be a bike riding baby Dr who smacks dingers at the congressional ball games. And the whole nation is swimming our way with the media's foot on their head.
Gold isn't the only precious commodity exponentially increasing with the devaluation of the dollar. The weight of the individual's liberty is increasing double exponential. The more Central Planning tries to homogenize and de-value, the more valuable a real human gets. Price fixing never works.
Ron Paul Write-IN