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Gold And Silver Go Vertical
Are investors rotating from the 'safety' of Apple to the new 'safety' of Gold and Silver? Because the next time there is a wholesale margin call, which courtesy of soaring margin debt will likely be today, speculators will have to sell the one asset that is outperforming everything. You guessed it...
Perhaps of note is the jump in USD Libor - GOFO (Gold Lease rates) to its highest since July 2011.
We wonder if this is the reason... Unwind of post Bank Stress Test excess relative to Gold in S&P 500...
Chart: Bloomberg
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Nothing that a margin hike won't fix.
Shhh. To speak the name of disaster is to summon it.
Only if you mention it in passing. If you talk about it A LOT, it negates that effect.
He who panics first panics best.
And in Titanic terms:
Those who stopped to enjoy the bands music didn't got a round trip ticket.
Au, AG will be the last men standing...
Yes
Same as it ever was.
Fisher is speaking right now..
All gold and silver chart erections will be softened by that failed fluffer Blythe Masters.
At least for today, what we expect to see happen is happening, eh?
The chair is against the wall. Mary has a long mustache.
...but what happened....did bernanke confess his crimes???
Seems only USD/JPY moving in "right" direction.
Rotation out of Apple, some other fundamental news blurb, whatever. The PM sector has been under assult since Feb. 29th to a degree that is simply breathtaking. Paul Volker noted in his memoirs that it was a mistake to not have controlled the price of gold during his term as Fed Chair. Uncle Ben hasn't made the same "mistake." Gold and silver are rocketing higher at the moment because the powers that be have pushed the PMs so far from reality that nearly anything can occationally cause these big bounces.
There will come a day when real money with no counter party risk will will the day. The Western financial system is insolvent. Period. Wake up and grab at least some gold and silver. You don't have to get religious about it nor turn into a gold bug. But if your idea of a wise investor is some dork like Dennis Gartman, you're going to have your arse handed to you.
Yes, I just noted the same thing. The moves have Fed/TPTB fingerprints all over them, and AU has felt very controlled in the past couple months, and especially the past couple weeks.
This is, of course, the ultimate market distortion as low prices will cause the physical markets to deplete at a faster rate, and try as he might, Ben ain't going to be able to print physical when that supply dries up.
This is absolutely nothing new. I highly recommend Ferdy Lips' book, _Gold Wars_. This has been going on forever, and a few hours on one day aren't going to change the attempts at manipulating the price of the PMs down while making all those fiat currencies look better...
Definitely controlled. This kind of pattern is more than a year long, that doesn't look too random to me.
2011 dec 27 gold 01 | goldpricemodel | 277 week ROC visual confirmation
2012 feb 06 gold price model 277 wk ROC | goldpricemodel | prediction 2012
Wake me up when silver is at 600$...
+ $600
It gets that high, wooo-hooo!
And gold goes to....?
$55,000. Prepare for hangover...
...drool... ...drip...
EDIT:
FOFOA's new go-to number is now $100,000.
I've been a reader of his for a while. Very cerebral stuff.
When & where did you find this new number???
This is just silly. An ounce of gold worth two or three years of labor. If we are going to fantasy land why not just call it a cool million. Per grain.
The Swedish Chef,
...and a bag of groceries will be $15,000.
Get out of the paper math IV drug.
An ounce of gold is already worth two or three years of labor.
In the third world.
Bag of groceries? Surely you just mean one slice of stale mouldy bread?
Yawn.
What labor-skill levels and how many unemployed with nothing else to trade but hard-work (stressful, damaging) that anyone can do with some youth and not yet starved?
Which fantasies are we dealing with now, the ones where workers are all so special and able to command high wages?
$100,000 / $600 makes the GS ratio 166
and physical US Dollars will be worth 12.44 BTU each regardless of denomination.
and unintended consequences.
$1870.00 The date in the price was pun intended.
I was just about to comment on this in another thread -- not just today's spike, but I've noticed the volatility has increased considerably on gold, and the down and up spikes on US PM/AM pricing has been very evident. So it's clear to me the PPT or Fed or whomever has been pretty active at gold price suppression in the past couple weeks.
The volatility feels very August/early September 2008 to me, but that may just be because I'm on high alert for that particular pattern.
I would not be surprised at all if this was a setup for another AU knock-down, though. It sure looks like they've been putting in a a lot more effort on controlling the price lately.
What do you think will happen to USD if Margin Calls come in today?
I would imagine USD up, AU down (from it's current intraday high), if that wasn't a rhetorical question.
The set-up is possible. But given the massive price management and declines in gold and silver we've already seen, I think the downside fireworks is in the rear-view mirror and that we've hit bottom. Time will tell.
The set-up is possible. But given the massive price management and declines in gold and silver we've already seen, I think the downside fireworks is in the rear-view mirror and that we've hit bottom. Time will tell.
I noted it too.. And if stocks "need" to go down with oil in order to pull the QE3 trigger and if assets correlation still has some stories to tell, then there will probably be some correction in the near term.. We'll see in the next few days
2012 feb 17 oil ROC look-ahead $brent $wtic
and
2012 03 26 dow vs oil | Flickr - goldpricemodel
dow / 95.6 - 31.342 = oil
oil * 95.6 + 3006.80 = dow
12849.59 /95.6 - 31.342 = 103.06, reading 102.91
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p64783481414
or the other way 102.91*95.6+3006.80= 12,844.996
12,844.996 - 12849.59 = -4.594
that's pretty good.
2011 Aug ROC wave indicator warnings: data-mining pattern-locales
2012 feb 06 gold price model 277 wk roc | Flickr - Photo Sharing!
gold price models 277 week and 52 week rate-of-change ROC 2012 Jan 27
Life starts to make sense when you see gold up and S&P down. I feel my mental sanity returning.
Possible to export Jon Corzine to China..ha ha http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-10/shadow-banks-on-trial-as-china-s-rich-sister-faces-death.html
The silver algo just got its ass kicked and the gold one is been sent back directly to the IT department for an overhaul.
QE trade is back on. Lol at selling of $ and buying of €
As far as gold lease rates (Libor - GOFO), there is actually a correlation between lease rate spikes and major bottoms in gold. I don't know why because I think it should be the other way around. http://www.kitco.com/lease.chart.html
institutional money is leaving the AAPL cart and moving elsewhere.. first spike of many.. how many hedgies were in AAPL a few hundred?? one by one they gonna dithc it. there is nowhere saft left except gold/siler
it comes
years away from that 'truth' occuring
Next stop for gold = $2000:
http://chart.ly/q3iuram
Turd has been pointing out that reverse head and shoulders for some time now and I think most of us are hoping it will come true. There is however a bif difference between now and the last reverse head and shoulder you point out: QE. I know most people here are expecting QE any minute now, just like Bill Gross and a few other but you could be in for a surprise.
My personal QE timeline says no QE until next spring/winter, when Romney sits comfortably in the Oval office.
Swedish Chef - i'm no chartist but usually i expect a H&S pattern to emerge with a longish build-up to the first shoulder ...Turds H&S pattern has an inverse build-up to the first shoulder ..the build-up is coming in the opposite direction to the shoulder and head
so i'm not sure the H&S pattern is legit ...but what do i know!
Turd is "on a roll" for getting it wrong at the moment (0-3) ..on the 28th he called for "Long and Strong" which was actually a Short and mega-Smackdown followed by some smiley faces saying "shorts will get fleeced" but he was wrong on both those calls too, shorts creamed the longs as Silver tanked -6% alone in a day last week
i'm not sure Turd Ferguson should be advising anyone anything for the moment, until his technical analysis can beat a 50/50 coin toss on getting it right
And for those that missed it here is Turds apology
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3616/man-i-hate-being-wrong
I still read his blog daily because I like his insight. Sadly it seems I won't be reading much longer as he says he's going for subscribers only. Nice while it's still free though.
Not in our lifetime. But it's Hopium, thanks.
Your assertion would only be true if you expect our lifetimes to have less than two years remaining.
On the down cycles, gold has been showing a pretty consistent 10% YoY growth (actually higher than this, but I'm rounding), likely reflecting the true inflation rate. This would put gold over 2000 an ounce in two year's time -- and that's at the weakest times.
It's a near certainty that it will cross 2K in well under 24 months on an up cycle.
Yup, maybe even inside 6 months.
2011 dec 14 data and model | Flickr - goldpricemodel - persistent year over year performance of spot
http://chart.ly/l2a9xwg
What do you mean by "stop" ? peak? or prices hover there? Or just a nice round number to happen by ____ ?
i fully expected it to be vertical through the floor.
what's disconcerting is how they trade lockstep with each other - regardless of 'supply and demand' - unless that's a mirror image too?
Silver simply recovered 2/3 of its early morning drop.
Nothing to see here.
And look at those bonds. Never mind risk off. Traders are scared shitless!
This is a QE trade. Bonds up (Feds will sop them up), commodities will rocket, Lollar falls (and laughably the EUR rises). Stocks will rocket on the announcement.
There might be a gold rally starting now up to 1800 during April-May(Green line). End of May there could be one more pullback.
http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7211/6860241842_9b8f7409de_o.png
better visible here:
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&start=1700#p37163
At least my old October 2011 (Green) improved prediction charts says so. The original red line from May 5th, 2011 is much less carefully drawn out, but curiously, also points to a possible dip in the end of May. And then another uptick going into July. Let us see. Green one seems to be a bit more accurate lately. I will update this one with actual prices on April 13th , to see the accuracy end extend short term forecast till September 1st, but it is visible already here that price level today is close to what it is (chart says 1680-1700)
The rest of the charts which are still holding out quite well (silver,last version of Dow, GSR, EUR/USD) as well as others that need to be improved are here:
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/2814/ivars-charts
has Turd abandoned his happy smiley face charts yet?
..the ones with big grimaces now after the -6% drop in Silver last week
If you're showing no math for how you get there, it's quite annoying. My curves are based ( dow price prediction ivars zerohedge tfmetals adjusted ) on output=(1.05 to the power price) - making parallel lines - then inverting the numeric-space back to the scale of prices (log value base 1.05)
I think my curves will hold for the forseeable future & were initially plotted in mid-2009 before I had any blog accounts just using a simple web site for math graphs...
this one was for TSX, efunda TSX chart input - 2009 mar 09 bottom to 261 days later (set any # days)
am I asking too much?
eFunda: dow output pts with dates, input date as YEAR e.g. 2009.3
is there anything about your "prediction charts" which is convincing? This old math stuff needed updating, and my newer flickr charts are indeed better, but you can see there's a basis. What's the math basis for what you're doing? How can the reliability be measured?
Sorry guys - cant seem to post graph - but look at Kitco live data for silver today, it shows 3 days of trading www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html This is what is frustrating. Look at the red trace yesterday at 10 pm. The HFT must be in high gear, how can the price change that much, that fast?. Green trace is today. Notice at 8 this morning the 30,000 dips in price all of a sudden smooth out - back to normal. Last, look at the pattern of yesterday and today - green vs red. It is unreal how they can control the price with such precision. I cant wait to see what happens when the controls are finally lifted! KEEP STACKIN!
All it takes to make that move is a big pending order at a lower price waiting for NY Globex open. Then whoosh.
Tyler rans a story about the last big blip that was what, one, two weeks ago? Where it was obvious someone was selling at lower prices into downward momentum and not spreading their volume -- ie running a trade that was guaranteed to lose more money than any other approach, and the only reason to do it was to known down AU pricing.
Yes, it's very clear they're trying to control things and not even making an effort to hide themselves. Things must be desperate. Either that or it's an IOU for discount gold prices finally be paid back to China.
Today looks like an exagerated yesterday. It is so tightly controlled it is going hysterical trying to break out.
I thought about too... It looks like a seismograf reading from 17.00 until 08.00 EST then goes back to normal.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vkbQTGgJIAQ&feature=related
again!
ALL ABOARD! ALL ABOARD NOW. Gold train leaving the station. Last call. ALL ABOARD.
Gold train yes, up +1.15% so far today
..but strangely Silver, normally the more hyper, only up +0.60%
No, this is just your typical ABC bounce due to end Tomorrow..... then another dive across the PM sector............as is always the case on a deep dive .......
Happens everytime to suck in the unwary .......were were they last week?
Took the long weekend to start pushing the gold futures up to suck the crowds in.....this very week as markets dive.....
Silver costs more on the street. Per goldprice.org 1oz gold eagles fetch 3 to 7%, while silver eagles command 8.75 to 16% premium. Crash JPM buy silver.
I'll be watching (not really) the financial shows tonight in anticipation to hear one of the talking heads discuss how the stock market bubble has busted like they do when gold drops.
Have a shot every time they mention "good entry point".
What's up with silver bids? Looking at the London fix over at Kitco is wild. Major fluxuations on the Globex.
China probably just walked off with 100 tons at a discount.
Brass, lead, copper, and ropes bitchez!
PPT in at 14:45 EDT. Dow from 12650 to 12800 by close?
China probably used both hands before this last bounce.
I'm still holding out for sub-30s...
Me too (for additional purchases) but I'm unsure if I am right.
Bought PM miners, gold.
What good are charts denominated in worthless fiat? Measuring AG and AU worth by looking at their value in dineros, gyros, yenos, or any other puppet master controlled paper products is like sitting in the hot tub with Max Fisher(Civis Mundi) and Kari Norgaard. You wonder what you are doing there and then you get nauseous.
Assuming that you are a gold and/or silver bug, how exactly do you acquire yours? Moondust?
Whenever I get extra fiat (not being used for food and other necessities), I just exchange it for shiny stuff. I don't give a shit if the price in paper is 700, 1700, or 2700. It's going to be worthless soon enough, so why not get something with value while I can. That's if I'm not just digging it up out of the ground. How do you keep a store of value? Tell me how you keep your purchasing power.
marc faber told the retards to buy gold.
no he didnt. He said he was cautious on gold. and wasnt sure the correction had ended. FOOL!
Ah...
ZH what made you post such drivel?
Define vertical to me 5yr holder of physical, prepper in South Africa?
I hope you're holding a lot of weapons as well
you can get AK-47's on street corners in S.A.
don't fuk with him
gold and silver moving up slightly is a non-event but it could be caused by Iran halting oil sales to Greece and new sales limits to Spain
+1 It amuses me that everyday CNBC feels it necessary to provide a reason for the PM daily change.
Todays reason is rather bland.. "Gold Settles Above $1660 as US Stocks Slide". So now you "know".
Phys up mines flat.
Maybe it means foreign cb's are buying physical but not miners out of their jurisdiction.
I would imagine that when the US investment herd wakes up to the reality of the situation the miners will close the gap.
ABX and GG up over 2%
Going vertical LOL Silver up 40 cents gold up $25. Thats going vertical. LOL. What a joke!
better than dropping 2%
Silver up +0.69% today versus tanking -6.00% last week
today is news???
ok boys and girls. I'm sic and tired of all this conspiricy alarmist, deeper meaning crap. The move today in gold is simply a correction having been in an over sold position the last few weeks. Nothing more, nothing less.
The move today in gold is simply a correction having been in an over sold position the last few weeks. Nothing more, nothing less
***********
True-gold was due for an oversold bounce-but there's a bit more happening that we should at least keep in mind-
The $ and treasuries are both up and commodities in general are down along with the stock market-
One day means nothing of course-but the action is typical of a flight to safety-of course it could all fizzle out by tomorrow-
China, and India, are buying hand over fist.........................Bank it.
Americans are the most ignorant of any semi literate society on the planet,when it comes to real value.
OK I agree "going vertical" is a little rich .. but at least it got me to czech the price for the first time in a few days. (I can't bear to check when the price is going south) and I see gold up to 1660, with the DOW getting a spanking on the same day. AND- I had pretty much thought 1600 was lost and going down down. So I am feeling pretty chipper ... fvckers!
PS- Eat $hit hungariangoy and Sandoz
I am confused by Silver. SLV is up but Kitco says silver is down. what am i missing? sorry to repeat if this has been discussed before but too many comments to read them all.
China investing in foreign mines and buying gold directly http://www.gata.org/node/11225
Also been hearing from multiple source that currency revalue is imminent...who knows?
silver has went straight down vertically from last april $50 high. Down almost 50% now. Trending straight through the floor. If you bought it at $50 you have got to be saying to yourself its going to $400 any day now.
And what the hell even if it gets slammed to $15 and oz. you can just keep imaginging Jamie Dimon doesn't even know what the fuck silver is! And what the hell you threw up a flag with a snake on it somewhere in your house so that actually makes your silver worth at least $500 an ounce. And wtf you can always trade some for a bucket of wheat pellets. Then you'll have a bucket of wheat pellets for that special day when Jesus comes back. And unicorns and santas reindeer and the easter bunny they all like wheat pellets too.
+1 You made me laugh out loud ;O)
Create uncertaincy in physical pm, just what they did in paper whatever....
Bad sign, but also a good sign. Like a crash test dummy finally gets his beer, after a paper marathon. And severe wounded.
....or, they closed the gap.
iPhones and iPads have uses. Gold and silver are almost useless metals. It's all digital these days. The only gold I own is some flakey stuff in a botle of booze. Now that's usefull.
Opps I forgot the 16 ounces of gold leaf lining the engine compartent of my Mclaren F1 is usefull at heat distribution but that's it. Otherwise gold is useless.
er, jewellry?
..teeth? ...collectable ...and worth its weight in Gold
..Gold has never been worthless in history, unlike every currency
You can't cure stupid, Zero Govt, no way, no how.
Gold went up $15.00 and were rallying on this news, what have we become?!? CNBC? /sarc
You know TPTB will never give us the ultimate power, that's my opinion anyway.
Go Silver.