2012 Just Woke Up In 2011 All Over Again
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/01/2012 - 14:34 Bond
While the analogs to 2011 and 2010 have come thick and fast and our early January call for a three-peat has proved all too correct so far, the last few days are starting to really scream 2011 chaos regimes as Gold, Stocks, Treasuries, and the USD are now mimicking the 'reaction function' of investors faced with a world on its own. Just as last year, Treasury yields were first to go, then stocks and gold diverged as the USD surged. Ironic that this is occurring on the day when Gold and 30Y Treasury bond prices are now outperforming the S&P 500 YTD.

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- Reads: 9,788
Guest Post: The Realities Of Choosing Your Survival Retreat Location
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/01/2012 - 14:14 ETC Germany Great Depression Greece Guest Post Japan Meltdown New Orleans Real estate Reality
I am a child of an age laden with illusory wealth, and have benefitted (for a short time at least) from the financial fakery of our economic system, as have many Americans. Most of us have not had to suffer through the unmitigated poverty, hopelessness, and relentless fear that are pervasive in harsher days. All our problems could be cured with money, especially government money, and as long as the greenbacks were flowing, we didn’t care where they came from. Ultimately, though, the ease of our well-to-do welfare kingdom has set us up for a cultural failure of epic proportions. Anytime a society allows itself to be conditioned with dependency, its fate is sealed. We do not know what crisis really is. Many Americans barely have an inkling of what it entails. We imagine it, in films, in books, and in our own minds, but the fantasy is almost numbing. We lose sight of the tangible grating salty rawness of the worst of things, while imagining ourselves to be “aware”. Most people today are like newborns playing merrily in a pit of wolves. Preppers, on the other hand, are those who seek to understand what the rest of the public goes out of its way to ignore. They embrace the reality and inevitability of disaster, and suddenly, like magic, they are able to see its oncoming potential where others cannot (or will not). The price they pay for this extended vision, however, is high…

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- Reads: 27,859
JPM Cuts Q3 GDP Forecast From 3% To 2%
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/01/2012 - 13:57 Gross Domestic Product"We are taking Q3 growth from 3.0% to 2.0%, with much of the downward revision accounted for by an expectation that the pace of export growth will slow."

- Comments: 50
- Reads: 4,160
Santelli And Kaminsky On Broken Rules, Unpredictability, and Deleveraging
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/01/2012 - 13:45 recovery Rick Santelli
In one of the best clips we can remember, Rick Santelli and Gary Kaminsky show just what happens when the kool-aid-drinkers are allowed to speak frankly about our predicament. Instead of constant silver-lining-seeking or trotting out failed truism after failed truism, the two men (who notably have been actual market participants as opposed to mere observers) take on the uncertainty and unpredictability that weighs heavy on our global economies as governments break the rules time and time again - and took advantage of crisis "getting away with anything". Focusing back on what could happen if the market were allowed to think for itself, Kamintelli deface the edifice of central banker largesse and blame it for the actual demise we face - noting that it is now clear that whether it is QE or actual rate easing, using jobs as the argument for excessive intervention is a failed concept. On a Friday that seems to have devolved into a low volume sideways nudge in equities, this is six minutes well spent as they ask and answer the question: "Have rates been too low for too long?" and how those who played by the 'rules' continue to be the ones who are penalized. There is hope for recovery if the market is allowed to find its own level - "it will get better, but the deleveraging pain still has to be taken all over the world."

- Comments: 95
- Reads: 13,853
Obama Discusses The Economy, Jobs, And Other Stuff - Live Webcast
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/01/2012 - 13:06 Cash For Clunkers
Today's "do a shot" keywords of choice: "jobs", "congress", "economy", "fair", "speculators", "pass this bill", "cash for clunkers", "Stuxnet", "Solyndra" and "sugar drinks". Obviously, if we have any readers left alive after this sermon, it will be a victory for the bulls.

- Comments: 185
- Reads: 7,339
Top Mitt Romney Donors: Update
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/01/2012 - 12:51As Mitt Romney speaks on TV, we thought it may be prudent to present an update of the key donors to the Romney presidential campaign.

- Comments: 154
- Reads: 16,593
Friday Humor: Nomura's Shareholder Proposals, Or #Winning By Squatting
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/01/2012 - 12:32 Morgan Stanley Nomura None Proxy Statement Punk'dPerhaps the only thing more spectacular than being punk'd by a rogue shareholder who uses the proxy statement of one of the world's biggest financial firms as a public venue for some quite disturbing humor, is that nobody in the US has decided to do this to the hated US financials firms. Yet.

- Comments: 49
- Reads: 8,588
Euro VIX Jumps As ECB Pumps
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/01/2012 - 12:04 Boaz Weinstein CDS Equity Markets European Central Bank Italy Sovereigns Volatility
Depending on whether you look at broad liquid risk markets or narrow manipulated 'repressed' illiquid markets, your take on today's European action will be different. Equity markets were crushed. Corporate and Financial credit spreads blew wider. Volatility (Europe's VIX) exploded over 36%. So far so good? But Italian and Spanish bonds rallied. It seems EUR96 was the line in the sand that the ECB (or their proxy banks) decided was enough for Spanish 10Y bonds and that was where they were defended to (though we are suspicious why ECB would step in now after 4 months absence). There was eventually some notable divergence between underperforming Spain and outperforming Italy by the close (+40bps on the week vs +27bps). We suspect that much of the sovereign outperformance was a combination of Sovereign CDS-Bond basis traders (buying bonds and buying protection in Spain to lock in that wide spread) and a replay of the short financial credit, long domestic sovereign credit trade (as in banks will underperform the sovereign if things hit the fan/wall). That is the flow that was evident when looked at across markets. All in all, a terrible end to an awful week and hopefully we have helped explain why sovereigns outperformed (technicals) as CDS remain at wides and stocks at lows.

- Comments: 26
- Reads: 5,339
Payroll Postmortem
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/01/2012 - 10:42 Gross Domestic Product recovery Unemployment
In perhaps the under-statement of the year, BofA's Economics group note that "May's unemployment report was a disappointment" with evidence of a weather reversal and weakness concentrated in construction, leisure, and temporary help. Pointing out that "This is the recovery of fits and starts", BofA believes we are entering a slow patch in the second half of the year. They do not see this report as sufficient to prompt Fed action in June, but it makes August QE increasingly likely. The weakness in the US data is overlapping with an intensifying crisis in Europe, which means the risk-off trade continues.

- Comments: 95
- Reads: 6,520
ISM Miss Add To Economic Collapse Woes: 5 ISM Sub-Indices In Contraction Territory
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/01/2012 - 10:13 Ben Bernanke Copper Natural Gas Recession Tim Geithner
Just in case someone did not get the earlier BLS-doctored message, the final two economic indicators of the day just printed and were... drumroll... misses. Because remember: not only the 1%ers but the 99ers have to be begging Bernanke to print. And so he will: ISM Manufacturing prints at 53.5, down from 54.8, and expectations of 53.8. Prices Paid plunge by 13.5, but the kicker: 5 out of the ISM's 10 sub indices are now in contraction territory.. And the cherry on top: Construction Spending unchanged from an upward revised 0.3 to 0.3, obviously, missing expectations of a jump to 0.4. Looking forward to the Tim Geithner Op-Ed: "Welcome to the recession."

- Comments: 91
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Bill Gross Channels 1972 Rock
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/01/2012 - 10:00 Bill Gross PIMCO

- Comments: 50
- Reads: 7,109
Dow Jones Now Red For 2012
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/01/2012 - 09:50
The Dow Jones Industrial Index just joined its Transports cousin in the the red for the year.

- Comments: 75
- Reads: 4,967
Gold Explodes, Spam Unchanged
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/01/2012 - 09:33
Gold has jumped over $50 post-NFP, now back over $1600. Maybe, just maybe, as we have been saying since January 1, 2012 is a carbon copy of 2011, and the NEW QE is coming now that only central planning can sustain an epic economic collapse (for a few months at least)?

- Comments: 197
- Reads: 13,444
Teleportation To Swiss Safety Pushes Record Negative 2 Year Yield
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/01/2012 - 09:27
The best news of the day is that the world just can't wait to pay off Swiss government debt by "buying" Swiss government debt with its -30 bps yields.

- Comments: 31
- Reads: 5,855



