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Guest Post: 2012 - The Year Of Living Dangerously

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Submitted by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform

2012 - The Year Of Living Dangerously

“In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party. The catalyst will unfold according to a basic Crisis dynamic that underlies all of these scenarios: An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses and further emergencies. The core elements of these scenarios (debt, civic decay, global disorder) will matter more than the details, which the catalyst will juxtapose and connect in some unknowable way. If foreign societies are also entering a Fourth Turning, this could accelerate the chain reaction. At home and abroad, these events will reflect the tearing of the civic fabric at points of extreme vulnerability –  problem areas where America will have neglected, denied, or delayed needed action.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning - 1997

  

In December 2010 I wrote an article called Will 2012 Be as Critical as 1860?, that pondered what might happen with the 2012 presidential election and the possible scenarios that might play out based on that election. Well, 2012 has arrived and every blogger and mainstream media pundit is making their predictions for 2012. The benefit of delaying my predictions until the first week of 2012 is that I’ve been able to read the wise ponderings of Mike Shedlock, Jesse, Karl Denninger, and some other brilliant truth seeking analysts regarding what might happen during 2012. The passage above from Strauss & Howe was written fifteen years ago and captured the essence of what has happened since 2007 and what will drive all the events over the next decade. Predicting specific events is a futile human endeavor. The world is so complex and individual human beings so impulsive and driven by emotion, that the possible number of particular outcomes is almost infinite.

But, as Strauss and Howe point out, the core elements that created this Crisis and the reaction of generational cohorts to the implications of debt, civic decay and global disorder will drive all the events that will occur in 2012 and for as far as the eye can see. Linear thinkers in mega-corporations, mainstream media and Washington D.C. focus on retaining the status quo, their power and their wealth. They believe an economic recovery can be manufactured through monetary manipulation and Keynesian borrowing and spending. They are blind to the fact that history is cyclical, not linear. In order to have an understanding of what could happen in the coming year, it is essential to keep the big picture in focus. As we enter the fifth year of this twenty year Crisis period, there is absolutely no chance that 2012 will see an improvement in our economy, political atmosphere or world situation. Fourth Turnings never de-intensify. They exhaust themselves after years of chaos, conflict and turmoil. I can guarantee you that 2012 will see increased mayhem, riots, violent protests, recessions, bear markets, and a presidential election that will confound the establishment. All the episodes which will occur in 2012 will have at their core one of the three elements described by Strauss & Howe in 1997: Debt, Civic Decay, or Global Disorder.

Debt – On the Road to Serfdom

The world is awash in debt. Everyone is focused on the PIIGS with their debt to GDP ratios exceeding the Rogoff & Reinhart’s 90% point of no return. But, the supposedly fiscally responsible countries like Germany, France, U.K., and the U.S. have already breached the 90% level. Japan is off the charts, with debt exceeding 200% of GDP. These figures are just for the official government debt. If countries were required to report their debt like a corporation, their unfunded entitlement promises to future generations are four to six times more than their official government debt.

 

Any critical thinking person can look at the chart above and realize that creating more debt out of thin air to solve a debt problem is foolish, dangerous, and self serving to only bankers and politicians. The debt crisis took decades of terrible choices and bogus promises to produce. The world is now in the midst of a debt driven catastrophe. At best, the excessive levels of sovereign debt will slow economic growth to zero or below in 2012. At worst, interest rates will soar as counties attempt to rollover their debt and rolling defaults across Europe will plunge the continent into a depression. The largest banks in Europe are leveraged 40 to 1, therefore a 3% reduction in their capital will cause bankruptcy. Once you pass 90% debt to GDP, your fate is sealed.

“Those who remain unconvinced that rising debt levels pose a risk to growth should ask themselves why, historically, levels of debt of more than 90 percent of GDP are relatively rare and those exceeding 120 percent are extremely rare. Is it because generations of politicians failed to realize that they could have kept spending without risk? Or, more likely, is it because at some point, even advanced economies hit a ceiling where the pressure of rising borrowing costs forces policy makers to increase tax rates and cut government spending, sometimes precipitously, and sometimes in conjunction with inflation and financial repression (which is also a tax)?”Rogoff & Reinhart

The ECB doubling their balance sheet and funneling trillions to European banks will not solve anything. The truth that no one wants to acknowledge is the standard of living for every person in Europe, the United States and Japan will decline. The choice is whether the decline happens rapidly by accepting debt default and restructuring or methodically through central bank created inflation that devours the wealth of the middle class. Debt default would result in rich bankers losing vast sums of wealth and politicians accepting the consequences of their phony promises. Bankers and politicians will choose inflation. They believe they can control the levers of inflation, but they have proven to be incompetent, hubristic, and myopic. The European Union will not survive 2012 in its current form. Countries are already preparing for the dissolution. Politicians and bankers will lie and print until the day they pull the plug on the doomed Euro experiment.

The false storyline of debt being paid down in the United States continues to be propagated by the mainstream press and decried by Paul Krugman. The age of austerity storyline gets full play on a daily basis. Total credit market debt in 2000 was $27 trillion. It skyrocket to $42 trillion by 2005 as George Bush and Alan Greenspan encouraged delusional Americans to defeat terrorism by leasing SUVs and live the American dream by putting zero down on a $600,000 McMansion, financing it with a negative amortization no doc loan. Paul Krugman got his wish as a housing bubble replaced the dotcom bubble. Debt accumulation went into hyper-speed in 2006 and 2007 as Wall Street sharks conducted a fraudulent feeding frenzy by peddling their derivatives of mass destruction around the globe. By the end of 2007, total credit market debt reached $51 trillion.

In a world inhabited by sincere sane leaders, willing to level with the citizens and disposed to allow financial institutions that took world crushing risks to fail through an orderly bankruptcy process, debt would have been written off and a sharp short contraction would have occurred. The stockholders, bondholders and executives of the Wall Street banks would have taken the losses they deserved. Instead Wall Street used their undue influence, wealth and power to force their politician puppets to funnel $5 trillion to the bankers that created the crisis while dumping the debt on taxpayers and unborn generations. The Wall Street controlled Federal Reserve provided risk free funding and took toxic mortgage assets off their balance sheets. The result is total credit market debt higher today than it was at the peak of the financial crisis in March 2009.

 

Our leaders have done the exact opposite of what needed to be done to address this debt crisis. The country is adding $3.7 billion per day to the National Debt. With the debt at $15.2 trillion, we have now surpassed the 100% to GDP mark. The National Debt will be $16.5 trillion when the next president takes office in January 2013. Ben Bernanke has been able to keep short term interest rates near zero and the non-existent U.S. economic growth and European disaster has resulted in keeping long-term rates near record lows. Despite these historic low rates, interest on the National Debt totaled $454 billion in 2011, an all-time high. The effective interest rate was approximately 3%. If rates stay at current levels, interest will be between $400 and $500 billion in 2012. Each 1% increase in rates would cost American taxpayers an additional $150 billion. A rapid increase in rates to the 7% level would ratchet interest expense above $1 trillion and destroy the last remaining vestiges of Bernanke’s credibility. It can’t possibly happen in 2012. Right? The world has total confidence in pieces of paper being produced at a rate of $3.7 billion per day. Confidence in Ben Bernanke, Barack Obama and the U.S. Congress is all that stands between continued stability and complete chaos. What could go wrong?

Debt related issues that will likely rear their head in 2012 are as follows:

  • A debt saturated society cannot grow. As debt servicing grows by the day, the economy losses steam. The excessive and increasing debt levels will lead to a renewed recession in 2012 as clearly detailed by ECRI, John Hussman and Hoisington Investment Management.

“Here’s what ECRI’s recession call really says: if you think this is a bad economy, you haven’t seen anything yet. And that has profound implications for both Main Street and Wall Street.” – ECRI 

At present, we observe agreement across a broad ensemble of models, even restricting data to indicators available since 1950 (broader data since 1970 imply virtual certainty of recession). The uniformity of recessionary evidence we observe today has never been seen except during or just prior to other historical recessions.-  John Hussman 

Negative economic growth will probably be registered in the U.S. during the fourth quarter of 2011, and in subsequent quarters in 2012. Though partially caused by monetary and fiscal actions and excessive indebtedness, this contraction has been further aggravated by three current cyclical developments: a) declining productivity, b) elevated inventory investment, and c) contracting real wage income. In summary, the case for an impending recession rests not only on cyclical precursors evident in productivity, real wages, and inventory investment, but also on the disfunctionality of monetary and fiscal policy. – Van Hoisington 

  • The onrushing recession will send housing down for the count. With 2.2 million homes already in the foreclosure process and another 13 million homes with negative or near negative equity, the recession will push more people over the edge. As foreclosures rise a self reinforcing loop will develop. Home prices will fall as banks dump houses at lower prices, pushing millions more into a negative equity position. Home prices will fall another 5% to 10% in 2012, with a couple years to go before bottoming.
  • The recession will result in companies laying off more workers. It won’t be as dramatic as 2008-2009 because companies have already shed 6 million jobs. The working age population will increase by 1.7 million, the number of people employed will go up by 1 million, but the official unemployment rate will drop to 7% as the BLS reveals that 10 million people decided to relax and leave the workforce. Surely I jest. The government manipulated unemployment rate will rise above 9%, while the real rate will surpass 25%.
  • The American people rationally increased their savings rate to 6.2% in the 2nd Quarter of 2009. When you are over-indebted and the country heads into recession, spending less and saving more is a sane option. Consumer expenditures accounted for 69% of GDP in 2007, prior to the economic collapse. The “recovery” of 2010-2011 has been driven by Ben’s zero interest rate policy, the resumption of easy credit peddling by the Wall Street banks, and consumers convinced that going further into hock to attain the American dream is rational. Consumer spending as a percentage of GDP has actually risen to 71% and the savings rate has plunged to 3.6%. The 20% drop in gas prices since April bottomed in December. This decline temporarily boosted consumer spending, but prices are on the rise again. With the State and local governments reducing spending, do the Wall Street Ivy League economists really believe consumers will increase their consumption to 73% of GDP and reduce their savings rate to 1%? If you open your local newspaper you will see the master plan. Car dealers are offering 0% financing with nothing down for 60 months. The GMAC/Ditech/Ally Bank zombie lives as subprime auto loans are back. The “strong” auto sales are a debt financed illusion. Ashley Furniture is offering 0% financing for 50 months with no payments through Wells Fargo Bank. When the Federal Reserve provides the Wall Street banks with 0% funding, banks are willing to take big risks knowing that Uncle Ben and the naive American taxpayer will be there to bail them out when it blows up again.  

 

  • With recession a certainty as fiscal stimulus wears off, home prices fall, employment stagnates, and consumer spending grinds to a halt, what will happen to the stock market? The Wall Street shills paraded on CNBC and interviewed by the multi-millionaire talking head twits assure you that stocks are undervalued and the market will surely be up 10% to 15% by 2013. It’s a mortal lock, just as it has been for the last twelve years, with the S&P 500 at the same level as January 1999. The fact is the stock market drops 30% on average during a recession. The talking heads declare that corporate profits are at record levels and will continue higher. Not bloody likely. Corporate profit margins are at an all-time peak about 50% above their historical norms. Profits always revert to their mean. These profits are not sustainable as they were generated by firing millions of workers, zero interest rates for banks, fraudulent accounting by the banks, and trillions in handouts from the middle class taxpayers to corporate America.

 

In a true free market excess profits will draw more competitors and profits will fall due to competition. When corporate profits exceed the mean by such a large amount, you can conclude that crony capitalism has replaced the free market. Government bureaucrats have been picking the winners (Wall Street, War Industry, Big Media, Big Healthcare) and the American people are the losers. Corporate oligarchs prefer no competition so they can reap obscene risk free profits and reward themselves with king-like compensation. Mean reversion will eventually be a bitch. Real S&P earnings have reached the 2007 historic peak. To believe they will soar higher as we enter a recession takes the same kind of faith shown by Americans buying a $600,000 McMansion in Stockton with no money down in 2005. The result will be the same. Do you ever wonder how corporations are doing so well while the average American sinks further into debt, despair and poverty?

The brilliant John Hussman captures the gist of an investor’s dilemma in his latest article:

“With 10-year Treasury yields below 2%, 30-year yields below 3%, corporate bond yields below 4%, and S&P 500 projected 10-year total returns below 5%, we presently have one of the worst menus of prospective return that long-term investors have ever faced. The outcome of this situation will not be surprisingly pleasant for any sustained period of time, but promises to be difficult, volatile, and unrewarding. The proper response is to accept risk in proportion to the compensation available for taking that risk. Presently, that compensation is very thin. This will change, and much better opportunities to accept risk will emerge. The key is for investors to avoid the allure of excessive short-term speculation in a market that promises – bends to its knees, stares straight into investors’ eyes, and promises – to treat them terribly over the long-term.”

Ben Bernanke, Wall Street shysters and Barack Obama want you to be drawn in by the allure of short-term gains based on hopes of QE3. The stock market will be volatile in 2012 with stocks falling 20% when it becomes evident the country is going back into recession. Ben will try to ride to the rescue with QE3 as he buys up more toxic mortgage debt. Wall Street will do their usual touchdown dance celebration, but the bloom will fall off this rose fast, as quantitative easing has proven to be a failure in stimulating economic growth.Gridlock in Washington D.C., chaotic national conventions, and the implosion of Europe will contribute to the market finishing down by at least 15% for the year.

  • Even though the U.S. economy has been stagnant for the past year and Europe is back in recession, oil is trading at $102 a barrel (Brent – $113 a barrel). This is a classic Catch-22 for Bernanke and his central banker buddies. The higher the price goes, the more recessionary economies become as energy and food costs rise. This would normally decrease demand and lower prices, but the massive money printing by the Fed and ECB artificially inflates the price of oil. The Canadian oil sands are only viable at $90 a barrel. Saudi Arabia needs $90 oil to balance their budgets. The onset of peak cheap oil, lack of Libyan supply, possible war with Iran, and increased demand from the developing world (China, India) will put a floor of $80 to $90 a barrel under oil. A shooting war with Iran would result in $150 a barrel of oil overnight. The trend in gasoline prices over the last three years is not your friend:

January 2009           $1.65

January 2010           $2.57

January 2011           $3.04

January 2012           $3.29

Gas prices are rising during the lowest usage time of the year. The average price of oil will exceed $100 during 2012 resulting in the highest average gas price in history for American drivers. These high prices, along with various weather related issues will keep food prices elevated, with 5% or higher increases likely. This should spur a few more peasant revolutions around the globe.

  • The question of whether gold can keep its streak of 11 consecutive positive return years in a row intact is an easy one. Will Obama and Congress spend $1.3 trillion more than they bring in during 2012? Will Ben Bernanke and other central bankers around the globe keep printing pieces of paper and calling it currency? If the answer to these two questions is yes, then gold will finish the year higher. As always, it will be volatile and manipulated by the powers that be. A drop below $1,500 in the beginning of the year is possible, but when Ben announces QE3, it will be off to the races. I expect gold to reach $1,900 by year end. Silver will be more volatile, but will likely reach $40 by year end.

Civic Decay – Occupying, Plundering, Capturing

Civic decay revealed itself dramatically in 2011 as millions of young people across the country occupied parks and town squares in a fruitless effort to correctly point out how the ruthless oligarchs inhabiting Wall Street bank executive suites, Mega-corporation boardrooms, the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, and the hallways of Congress had pillaged the wealth of the middle class through inflation, taxation, fraud and outright thievery. The majority of over-medicated, lethargic, uninterested, ignorant Americans yawned at this selfless display of courage and civil disobedience as they chose to occupy lines for hours to get the latest iPad or $3 waffle-maker at Wal-Mart. Delusional, non-thinking dolts across the land watched on their 60 inch HDTVs as young protestors got clubbed, beaten, tear gassed, tasered, maced, and brutalized by paid mercenaries for the ruling oligarchy. They treated the horrific scenes of brutality as if it was just one of their 30 favorite reality TV shows like I Didn’t Know I Was Pregnant or Toddlers & Tiaras. They thought this was a new show called Mace A Millenial.

Despite controlling the media, the money and the levers of power in Washington D.C., those in power cannot spin the reality of a middle class being systematically wiped out by the policies put in place by the corporate fascist oligarchs running this country. As Wall Street profits and bonuses flow like honey, the lines at food banks look like the lines at Best Buy on Black Friday and homeless shelters overflow with former members of the middle class. The ministry of propaganda (BLS, BEA) reports improving economic conditions while the number of Americans in the food stamp program has jumped from 38 million when the recession officially ended in late 2009 to 46.3 million today. Having 15% of the population surviving on food stamps is surely a sign of economic recovery.

 

The mainstream media methodically spews misinformation and happy talk about increased consumer spending and retail sales above expectations as if Americans borrowing to buy another laptop, TV, Kindle, or Rolex proves we have a real recovery. Meanwhile, old line mall based retailers like Sears and J.C. Penney die a slow agonizing death as they stagger into the sunset like Montgomery Ward, Circuit City and thousands before them. There is a disconnect in society as high end retailers like Saks, Tiffany, and Neiman Marcus report record sales as the 1% feel confident and flush with cash. Meanwhile, real median income is lower than it was in 2001. It seems tax cuts didn’t lift all boats, just the yachts. The average Joe pays twice as much for a gallon of gas and 50% more for food since 2001 while taking home less pay. The ruling elite can’t figure out why the peasants are getting restless.

 

The wealthy elite have been out in force over the last few months broadcasting their storyline about 50% of Americans not paying taxes. They and their media mouthpieces pound this message home unceasingly. They portray themselves as job creators, when the facts prove they have destroyed jobs here in America. They successfully painted the Occupy Movement as a bunch of lazy good for nothing socialists who needed to get a job. Then they unleashed the full fury of their brute strength upon these citizens practicing their right to assembly and free speech by crushing them with their hired police thugs, while the ignorant by choice public looked away. Controlling the message is essential for the oligarchs to retain their wealth, power and control. Aldous Huxley’s understanding of the American people is as true today as it was eighty years ago:

 “Most ignorance is vincible ignorance. We don’t know because we don’t want to know.”

It is time to not choose ignorance. The storyline peddled to the masses is false. The ruling oligarchy will do everything in their power to obscure and manipulate the truth. It is true that 50% of American workers pay no Federal income tax. It is also true that 50% of American workers make less than $25,000 per year. If these workers are employed in Philadelphia they pay 4% city income tax, 3% state income tax, 7.65% Social Security and Medicare tax, 6% sales tax on everything they buy, 15% state and federal taxes on gasoline, and they pay city and county property taxes whether they own or rent. They also pay the various sewer, trash, and myriad of other fees inflicted on them by government drones. Maybe someone should inform multi-billionaire hedge fund guru Steve Schwarzman that lower income families actually have most of their skin in the game. They can’t hire hoards of high powered lawyers and tax accountants to minimize their tax burden while contributing millions to politicians who write the laws to protect the oligarchs. I wonder why hedge fund managers don’t pay taxes on their profits.

Asked if he were willing to pay more taxes in a Nov. 30 interview with Bloomberg Television, Blackstone Group LP CEO Stephen Schwarzman spoke about lower-income U.S. families who pay no income tax. “You have to have skin in the game,” said Schwarzman, 64. “I’m not saying how much people should do. But we should all be part of the system.”

We are all part of the system, and the system is rigged. The middle class is systematically being obliterated as high paying jobs were shipped to low paying countries by mega-corporations. Their huge cost advantages have driven small domestic “job creating” firms out of business. The middle class has the majority of their wealth tied up in their homes, and they continue to see that wealth decline on a daily basis. The culprits in the housing collapse – the major Wall Street banks – have seen their profits skyrocket as they held the middle class hostage to a multi-trillion dollar banker bailout. Americans don’t hate the wealthy. Wealthy men like Steve Jobs and Bill Gates have been admired and emulated by Americans because they exhibited the true admirable traits of entrepreneurship, creativity, hard work, taking chances, and creating a better society. Wall Street shysters create nothing. They exhibit the worst traits of greed, avarice, and non-existent empathy for their fellow man.

 Gains and Losses in 2007-2009, Average CEO Pay vs. Average Worker Pay

Matt Taibbi summed up how the system is rigged rather succinctly in a recent article:

“And in the bigger picture, of course, you need the state and the private sector both to be functioning well enough to provide you with regular work, and a safe place to raise your children, and clean water and clean air. The entire ethos of modern Wall Street, on the other hand, is complete indifference to all of these matters. The very rich on today’s Wall Street are now so rich that they buy their own social infrastructure. They hire private security, they live on gated mansions on islands and other tax havens, and most notably, they buy their own justice and their own government.

But citizens of the stateless archipelago where people like Schwarzman live spend millions a year lobbying and donating to political campaigns so that they can jump the line. They don’t need to make sure the government is fulfilling its customer-service obligations, because they buy special access to the government, and get the special service and the metaphorical comped bottle of VIP-room Cristal afforded to select customers.”

The wealth inequality in this country did not occur because half the population is lazy and stupid. It didn’t happen because the 1% is intellectually superior, more highly motivated, or more entrepreneurial than the 99%. If any of these statements were true, the inequality would be consistent across decades and centuries. But, as the chart below details, the phenomenon has happened since 1979. Interestingly, it also occurred just prior to the 1929 stock market crash and Great Depression.  

  

The chart reflects the results of three decades of crony capitalism based upon phony tax canards; delusions of a debt based American dream peddled by bankers, politicians and the media; and complete capture of our economic and political system by a self selected wealthy few. Jesse captures the essence of how it happened in a recent article:

“Anyone who has seriously studied applied macroeconomics knows that crony capitalists hate free markets, with all the fairness and transparency that they imply. Competition is a serious drag on enormous profits and introduces significant uncertainty and risk. As soon as the game is underway, successful capitalists are constantly pushing the envelope of the rules, seeking to establish rents, monopolies, unfair advantages, and debt traps to snare the bulk of the players and stifle the profit-eroding tendency of real competition.

This is the basis of all aristocracies, which are merely the institutionalization of privilege.  Once they make it they bloody well want to change the rules to hang on to it, and take the risk out of their equation. They foster a culture of two sets of books, two sets of rules, and two systems of justice. They are given over in their personal and professional lives to the benefits of hypocrisy and cheating, with little conscience to restrain them. There is a predatory class that is nationless, without allegiance to anything, any principle, but their own greed and lust for power.”

What has happened over the last three decades is not particular to the United States. It is a flaw in all humanity. The majority of humans are inherently honest and if raised by good parents will do the right thing most of the time. When society allows psychopaths and evil men to attain high status in government and business through chosen ignorance, lack of vigilance, casting aside the rule of law, or admiration for wealth attained by any means, then wealth disparity reaches extreme levels. The fatal defect of the Wall Street psychopaths is their hubris. Too much is never enough. They are like sharks, always needing more to satiate their hunger. They will eventually go too far and collapse their crony capitalist system resulting in revolution and ultimately their demise. We are very close to the tipping point and 2012 is likely to reveal deep cracks in the foundation of our warped dysfunctional corporate fascist economic system. These are a few things I expect to happen in 2012:

  • The Occupy Movement will become more extreme with more disruptions of the economic system with less warning so the authorities don’t have time to prepare. I expect more cyber hacking into Wall Street, government, and media computer networks, causing disarray and uncertainty regarding financial information. I expect the Democratic and Republican presidential conventions to be overrun by protestors. The authorities will respond with excessive force, resulting in further violent protests in other cities.
  • Two simultaneous trends will eventually result in a domestic conflict. The Federal government grows ever more panicked by the knowledge that its ponzi scheme economy is going to collapse. This is why passage of the NDAA and the future passage of SOPA are so important to them. Imprisonment of citizens without charge and shutting down the only remaining means of truth – the Internet – are essential to retaining their power and control over the masses. At the same time, gun sales are at record levels. Critical thinking Americans can see the writing on the wall and no longer trust corrupt politicians of either party. Arming yourself and buying physical gold and silver is a prudent act in today’s world. If the financial system implodes in 2012 and an MF Global like stealing of customer funds from IRAs, 401ks, and bank accounts happens, all hell could break loose.
  • The ruling elite hand selected puppets for the 2012 presidential election are Obama and Romney. They are virtually interchangeable and both are acceptable to the Wall Street oligarchs. The monkey wrench in the gears is Ron Paul. His message of freedom, liberty, non-interventionism, living within our means, self reliance, and a sound currency are poison to the establishment. His message appeals to young people and a growing number of realists who understand we are already bankrupt. He will run as a 3rd Party candidate and focus a light on the crony capitalism that passes for free markets in America today. He will be vilified by both parties and their media mouthpieces, but if he gains traction I fear an unfortunate accident will befall him. Either way, he will have a dramatic impact on the debate and the outcome of the 2012 election.  

The question for 2012 is whether the gaping multitude will come to their senses and respond accordingly against the ruling oligarchy.

“Modern fanaticism thrives in proportion to the quantity of contradictions and nonsense it pours down the throats of the gaping multitude, and the jargon and mysticism it offers to their wonder and credulity.”William Hazlitt

Global Disorder – War, Oil, Religion

“We do not have to visit a madhouse to find disordered minds; our planet is the mental institution of the universe.” Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

Disorder is an understatement when describing what is happening on the global scene. It seems like the inmates are running the insane asylum. The beauty of globalization, sold to Americans by the corporate oligarchs, is being revealed for all to see. Besides seeing millions of jobs shipped overseas by mega-corporation executives and our industrial base gutted beyond repair, the other “benefits” are aplenty. The interconnectedness of the global economy insures that a recession in Europe and the U.S. will spread across the world. The producing countries will fall when the consuming countries run out of fiat currency to spur consumption. Federal Reserve created inflation in the United States instantaneously spreads around the world creating revolutions across the Middle East and social unrest in China as food and energy prices surge to levels of pain which cause the poor to revolt against the ruling establishment. People lose it when they have nothing to lose.

But, the biggest gift of globalization has been provided by whom else – the Wall Street banks and the large European banks. The European banks did their part by loaning hundreds of billions to PIIGS that could never pay them back. Next, they leveraged their balance sheets 40 to 1, insuring that a 3% loss on their capital wipes them out. When their losses clearly exceeded 40%, the bankers employed their politician puppets running the insolvent countries across the continent to dump the losses on the taxpayers through austerity measures that insure a deep European recession. Since derivatives of mass destruction link the insolvent Wall Street banks to the insolvent European banks, the Federal Reserve has now stepped into the breach with American taxpayer money by providing swap lines to European banks. The oligarchs are perfectly willing to destroy the lives of hundreds of millions of citizens across the globe to insure their wealth and power remains intact.

The other crucial component of global disorder is oil. The storyline currently being peddled to the masses is the return of energy independence for America. The political class and their lapdog media pundits blatantly lie to the American public with stories of 100 years of oil supply under our soil. GOP candidates declare we can be energy independent in two years if we just drill, drill, drill. Meanwhile, in the real world 33 billion barrels of oil are consumed every year, with the U.S. consuming 7 billion barrels per year, of which 3.3 billion barrels are imported. Total U.S. oil production continues its 40 year decline, despite the shale oil boom in the Dakotas and the massive fracking hype touted by the gas industry. If Americans used some critical thinking skills they would conclude that our oil dependent society is balanced on the head of a pin. The chart below paints a picture of current and future global disorder.

One look at this chart and you begin to understand the War on Terror cover story. The average person in these Muslim oil rich countries wants a chance for a better life, food, clothing, and hope for their children’s future. They are not the evil, freedom hating, religious fanatic terrorists portrayed by the neo-cons and war mongers like Santorum, Gingrich and Romney. American troops are stationed in or around the countries with the most oil. Any dictator that fails to play along with the U.S. and its oil demands isn’t around for long. Hussein and Gaddafi learned the hard way. It’s just a matter of time for Ahmadinejad. Expect the rhetoric about the dangerous Chavez to escalate in the near future. Controlling 300 billion barrels of oil will be essential to keeping our suburban sprawl society functioning. Soccer moms will become irate when they can’t fill up their GMC Yukon with 39 gallons of precious fuel. Our own military clearly documented why the War on Terror will never end in their 2010 Joint Operating Environment report:

 A severe energy crunch is inevitable without a massive expansion of production and refining capacity. While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and India. One should not forget that the Great Depression spawned a number of totalitarian regimes that sought economic prosperity for their nations by ruthless conquest. By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD.

The likeliest global events which will make 2012 a year to remember include:

  • The disintegration of the European Union with outright default by Greece and the exit from the Union by Italy, Spain, and Portugal. A default and currency devaluation would bankrupt banks across Europe and would guarantee a worldwide recession and possibly depression.
  • It seems more likely by the day that someone will do something stupid in or around Iran and the Persian Gulf will explode into a virtual hell on earth. The unintended consequences of such a development will far outweigh the intended consequences.
  • The revolutions, protests, and brewing civil wars in Egypt, Syria, Libya and Iraq will flare up even if Iran doesn’t explode into a shooting war. The tensions in the Middle East will keep oil prices above $100, despite a world plunging into recession.
  • China’s hard landing will arrive in 2012. Keynesianism on steroids has failed as they’ve built more than enough vacant malls, vacant cities, vacant condo towers, and bridges to nowhere. Property prices will plunge, exports will decline, and peasants will revolt as food and energy prices push them over the edge. Chinese leaders will look for a foreign bogeyman so they can rally their 1 billion peasants around the flag. With 11% of their oil supply coming from Iran, it could get very interesting.

Just as no one saw the most significant events of 2011 (Arab Spring, Mubarak & Gaddafi overthrown, Japanese earthquake, tsunami, nuclear meltdown, and Occupy Wall Street) in advance, 2012 will surely have some surprises. Possibilities include:

  • An earthquake on the New Madrid fault or off the coast of California causing a tsunami to hit the west coast.
  • One or more hurricanes entering the Gulf of Mexico causing widespread oil rig destruction and causing oil and natural gas prices to soar.
  • A new bird flu or swine flu pandemic that spreads around the world.
  • An actual terrorist attack in the United States in a mall, hotel or public venue that provokes a massive over response by our government could change this country forever.
  • The assassination of political leaders and prominent bankers around the world as radicals take retribution into their own hands.

We have now entered the fifth year of this Fourth Turning Crisis. George Washington and his troops were barely holding on at Valley Forge during the fifth year of the American Revolution Fourth Turning. By year five of the Civil War Fourth Turning 700,000 Americans were dead, the South left in ruins, a President assassinated and a military victory attained that felt like defeat. By the fifth year of the Great Depression/World War II Fourth Turning, FDR’s New Deal was in place and Adolf Hitler had been democratically elected and was formulating big plans for his Third Reich. The insight from prior Fourth Turnings that applies to 2012 is that things will not improve. They call it a Crisis because the risk of calamity is constant. There is zero percent chance that 2012 will result in a recovery and return to normalcy. Not one of the issues that caused our economic collapse has been solved. The “solutions” implemented since 2008 have exacerbated the problems of debt, civic decay and global disorder. The choices we make as a nation in 2012 will determine the future course of this Fourth Turning. If we fail in our duty, this Fourth Turning could go catastrophically wrong. I pray we choose wisely. Have a great 2012.          

“The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. Thus might the next Fourth Turning end in apocalypse – or glory. The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed, and millions of people scattered or killed. Or America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition. The rhythms of history do not reveal the outcome of the coming Crisis; all they suggest is the timing and dimension.” – Strauss & Howe

 

 

 

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Sun, 01/08/2012 - 19:42 | 2045227 akak
akak's picture

$3.80 in my neck of the woods --- in the only state (aside from possibly Texas) which produces and refines ALL of the gasoline used within it!

Tell me that something is not wrong with that picture.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 19:17 | 2045179 Earl of Chiswick
Earl of Chiswick's picture

MR Robo I do enjoy your posts and once shared your sentiment on Quinn, but then I looked at the data and he is remarkably prescient. Perhaps you would care to back up your assertion about Jimmy by providing some evidence. I think back to his great consumer crash article and he was by and large right on the money.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 20:53 | 2045357 Mad Marv
Mad Marv's picture

I'm done trying to convince people who 'don't want to see'.  Prep accordingly.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 22:07 | 2045480 toomanyfakecons...
toomanyfakeconservatives's picture

Peak oil has little do do with gas for your automobile. Oil is the very foundation of everything in human civilization... plastics, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, fertilizers. Peak oil is here already as are the economic consequences, just skip forward to 2:23:43 of Zeitgeist Moving Forward http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Z9WVZddH9w

Much of Zeitgeist is financial too, start around 42:00 if you don't have time for the whole thing.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 17:58 | 2045021 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Petrol is 1 cent off the all time high here in Europe... what can go wrong right?

 

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 21:27 | 2045386 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

Expect the Russians to start raising prices for their natural gas pronto. They are going to grab as much fiat from Europe as possible and continue to buy gold in record amounts until the € collapses and they turn the gas off.

The fan is on high right now in Germany, and there is a huge pile of shit building just in front of it. It hasn't hit the fan yet, but the stink is overpowering.

Almost all of Germany is hooked up to Gasprom, and the addiction is complete. All forms of energy here in the upcoming Fourth Reich are constantly being raised in price, yet wages almost never rise. Everything is taxed to the hilt, goverment debt just passed €2 trillion, and all of the political parties want to do nothing more than committ more and more unborn generations to crushing debt. Insanity pure.

After WWIII, and the great reset, perhaps the real NWO will have a united currency. I sorta like the cubits used by the 12 colonies of Battlestar Galactica Notice the color. Very appealing.

http://en.battlestarwiki.org/wiki/File:CubitCoinCloseup.JPG

Mon, 01/09/2012 - 04:33 | 2046041 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Same here, our electrical bill went up 30% this year!

and now they're also telling us that we'll most likely get less money for our green certificates from our solar panels.

 

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 18:02 | 2045030 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Los Angeles unleaded prices have been declining for months now.

A little bounce recently due to scare-mongering out of Iran.

http://66.70.86.64/ChartServer/ch.gaschart?Country=Canada&Crude=f&Period...$/G

Prices are way, way down from the $4.75/gal. peak in July 2008 when every "expert" was predicting rationing, gas lines, etc.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 18:16 | 2045059 Seer
Seer's picture

Margins getting squeezed.  Hard to sell high when people can't afford it.

Did you miss the news on Petroplus Holdings (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16432728)?  No misinterpreting the meaning of this.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 18:57 | 2045144 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Check em today - prices started going back up in the last few days.  Hope & Change.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 19:25 | 2045187 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Robo has been pushing this point very, very hard for months now. But he only tells you his subjective anecdotes, not backed by numbers. 

In reality, national gasoline prices are at all-time highs for this time of year, IE the non-driving season. They normally do come off the summer peak. But they are higher than they ever were for these months. 

In addition, average gasoline prices for 2011 beat average gasoline prices for 2008. Taken over th entire year. Ominous. 

On an annual basis, retail gasoline prices hit an all-time high in 2011. The average price for all grades was $3.576 per gallon, vs $3.299 in 2008. http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/business/2012/01/forecast-2012-worst-year-fo...

 

AAA: Gas prices highest ever to start a new year 

http://augustafreepress.com/2012/01/08/aaa-gas-prices-highest-ever-to-st...

 

 

And the final debunking: gasoline demand in the US is down but not because of fuel efficiency: DOT and AAA both confirm that vehicle-miles driven for 2011 are on a decline for the first time ever. Result of unemployment and killer prices.

The only thing worse than the boy who cried wolf unnecessarily is the boy who cried sheep when the wolf pack was just over the rise. 

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 20:36 | 2045329 Jim Quinn
Sun, 01/08/2012 - 21:50 | 2045449 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

I hate to support the dudette, but although gasoline prices may be at nominal highs for this time of year I  doubt in real terms (adjusted for inflation) they are at all time highs.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 19:30 | 2045199 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

And from Robo's own Home Town Paper: LA Times: Jan 6, 2012

 

Gasoline prices start the year at a high — and rising


Gas prices are the highest ever for this time of year, and analysts predict that motorists will be digging deep in 2012 to fuel their vehicles.

http://articles.latimes.com/2012/jan/06/business/la-fi-gas-prices-20120106

 

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 20:52 | 2045353 smiler03
smiler03's picture

10/10 Thank you.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 19:49 | 2045239 akak
akak's picture

RobotShitforBrains said:

Los Angeles unleaded prices have been declining for months now.

 

Prices are way, way down from the $4.75/gal. peak in July 2008 when every "expert" was predicting rationing, gas lines, etc.

And, as usual, shitforbrains simply refuses to, or is incapable of, seeing the big picture, or beyond a two-day time frame.

RobotLemming's "analysis" is equivalent to a doctor monitoring a patient's EKG, and declaring, each half-second: "Oh my god, the patient just died! ... OK, now he's back ... Oh my god, the patient just died! ... OK, now's he back ...."

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 19:55 | 2045265 Hulk
Hulk's picture

You just don't understand akak, big hole in the gulf proves their is no such thing as peak oil...

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 21:47 | 2045444 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

I too am an "abiotic psychotic"!

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 20:03 | 2045280 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

Robo here is another accurate chart also that will show national average. 

U.S. Energy Info Admin

54.135.7/forecasts/steo/

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 21:46 | 2045442 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

How could you do dat dudette!??

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 18:03 | 2045035 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

You know what could be crazy too? If Fukushima becomes worse forcing an evacuation of Tokyo... that's 40 million people... talk about black swan...

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 18:15 | 2045057 CH1
CH1's picture

If Fukushima becomes worse they won't tell anyone and will deny the stories that do get out, calling them "conspiracy theories from extremists."

When the hospitals are full of dying Japanese, they'll admit that "mistakes were made."

Ho hum, move along, TPTB have good intentions. Line up to slave and die.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 21:44 | 2045441 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Actually, "glowing swan" would be more like it.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 18:08 | 2045045 Seer
Seer's picture

"Not one of the issues that caused our economic collapse has been solved. The “solutions” implemented since 2008 have exacerbated the problems of debt, civic decay and global disorder."

No shit?  And you really want to know why?  I'll tell you- it's because they CAN'T be SOLVED, they're part and parcel OF the System.

All of this was written and not a mention of the absurdity of trying to push a growth-only system on a finite planet that's refusing to match our virtual, paper specs?

You fuckers all try and shove a fucked up premise by, it's always "how can we stimulate growth?," no one is asking whether it's possible, let alone whether we should.

No fucking sense of math.  No fucking sense of physics.  You all need to transcend your asses out into the cosmos* and let those that have a basis in physical reality get on with trying to reestablish symbiosis with the planet.

* Religious wackos could care less about the planet, figuring that they'll just be whisked up into the cosmos by some invisible dude.  And the techo wackos could care less about the planet, figuring that they'll get all the peons to build their rocket-ships for their escape into the cosmos (which will, like the appearance of some invisible dude, NEVER happen).

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 18:46 | 2045110 Seer
Seer's picture

Crap!  I forgot to include this humorous bit:

There is zero percent chance that 2012 will result in a recovery and return to normalcy.

Again, no shit?!

Just what the fuck is "normalcy?"  I'll bet dollars to donuts that you can't say what That is without turning something simple into something that sounds like Mitt Romney trying to fend off accusations of data destruction (implications of cover-up): or him trying to convey the importance of Magic Mormon Underwear.

NOTHING IS FUCKING NORMAL!  Face it, you want things such that they can move "up;" well, that's exactly what TPTB really want.  Why is that (when everyone thinks that they really only want to kill the lot of us off)?  It's because they ONLY know growth, they only know inflation.

NORMAL, if there is even such a thing, is only some transient state, a state, perhaps, ONLY between rising or falling.  If you've got lots of assets (with the exception of PMs) you in NO way want things to be falling; so, the ONLY conclusion of direction is that you want things to fucking bubble again so you can catch the rise and then dump before the inevitable roll-off.  Spare me the piousness.

Mon, 01/09/2012 - 04:48 | 2046053 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

I still poop a half hour after eating.

Is that normal?

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 19:12 | 2045169 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

The premise won't change. The pain will build the psychotic solution will look like the way to go. Then you'll either do that or watch it while giving up everything.

It's a top down run world. The top have to steal everything back to bribe the people to make what they want next.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 19:41 | 2045223 Seer
Seer's picture

"The top have to steal everything back to bribe the people to make what they want next."

Pretty much how it's gone... except, I've got this nagging feeling that this time it isn't going to work out like they think.

Mon, 01/09/2012 - 02:04 | 2045931 mvsjcl
mvsjcl's picture

"The top have to steal everything..."

 

Hyper? Is that you?

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 20:11 | 2045288 VyseLegendaire
VyseLegendaire's picture

+1, don't worry, Jim Quinn is a bit of a troll and never revises his opinions based on new information or evidence.  Thanks for injecting some sense here. 

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 20:31 | 2045321 XitSam
XitSam's picture

"* Religious wackos could care less about the planet, ..."

I've wondered about peoples use of this phrase. It seems to be meaning "couldn't care less", but is saying that they do still care some.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 20:56 | 2045359 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Say it with a New York accent...

"You're broke? I could care less."

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 21:05 | 2045377 smiler03
smiler03's picture

There are lots of references on the internet about "could care less" or "couldn't care less".

http://dictionary.reference.com/help/faq/language/g09.html

The incorrect "could care less" is seen here at ZH all the time. A big credit to Jim Quinn for using the correct version.

The other one I despise is "my bad". What's wrong with "my mistake"? Too many letters?

Mon, 01/09/2012 - 00:35 | 2045791 buyingsterling
buyingsterling's picture

It's used generally by people who don't know very many religious people. People who will spit on everything the corporate media usually sells them are for some reason ausceptible to their bashing of religion, and acceopt the idea that half of the population are religious extremists. The only people I know who are preparing are also religious, and they aren't preparing for rapture, but survival.

Mon, 01/09/2012 - 05:01 | 2045793 buyingsterling
buyingsterling's picture

.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 20:41 | 2045338 fnord88
fnord88's picture

always puzzled by my highly educated, highly intelligent Phd Econ friends who just can't wrap their head around the infinite growth, finite planet thing. The laws of thermodynamics are very unequivical. Why must we consume more every year or the economy crashes? Why should things get more expensive with technological development? Why should an ounce of gold still buy me a nice suit? And why whould ANYONE, dumb or smart, accept the paradox of thrift? Buying an iPad ( on credit ), is better than saving? The economy IS NOT a machine keynesians. It is an ecology, the most complex ecological system in the known universe. It is millions of times more complex than the weather, and look how fucking good we are at predicting that. Hubris, fucking hubris thinking we can pull this lever, inject cash here, lower interest rates there, and all will be good again. The more complex the system, the more unpredictable the unintended consequences. A Bernank flaps its wings in New York, a million peasents starve to death in Africa. 

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 21:14 | 2045388 akak
akak's picture

A Bernank flaps its wings in New York, a million peasents starve to death in Africa.

... and the Bernank is not even remotely troubled by the results.

 

Your observation would be funny if it were not so tragically and diabolically accurate.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 22:23 | 2045510 fnord88
fnord88's picture

diabolically is an excellent word, and one that should be used more often. +1 seeing as ZH won't let me give you a greenie

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 22:04 | 2045474 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Could not agree more.  The"grow or die" mantra always puzzled me. There is not such thing as infinite growth.  Yet Corp America is obssesd with it.  But huge always seems to fail in the end. Ask US Steel, GM, and soon, Wal-Mart.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 18:17 | 2045058 Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

Wow! Such truth packed into just a few paragraphs.  I wish every American would take time to read and comprehend this.  Sadly, only a handful will.

On that note, perhaps a glimpse ahead: http://halfpasthuman.com/destiny.html

Finally, if you agree with me that collapse is becoming unavoidable, don't despair, prepare! http://www.collapsenet.com/262.html

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 18:22 | 2045073 dolly madison
dolly madison's picture

I've heard many people wish 2012 will be better than 2011.  I've just held my tongue, knowing it won't be.  There's no way it will be better.  Nothing is resolved to make it better.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 18:26 | 2045075 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Jim Quinn,

How about a hat tip to Zero Hedge's own WilliamBanzai7 for using the last image in the article, something Banzai7 produced last week.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/expd/6610639445/in/photostream/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/expd/6610712893/in/photostream/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/expd/6610764663/in/photostream/

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 18:47 | 2045126 Jim Quinn
Jim Quinn's picture

I didn't realize it was from William. I googled 4th Turning images and the picture popped up.

I thought it was brilliant and a perfect finale for the article.

Thank you WilliamBanzai7

 

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 20:31 | 2045322 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

No problemo. You can feel free anytime with a h/t or link to williambanzai7.blogspot.com which is much appreciated.

BTW, some clown graffitied my handle in the top middle ;-)

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 20:42 | 2045340 Jim Quinn
Jim Quinn's picture

I'll add your link below the picture on my site.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 23:47 | 2045682 fuu
fuu's picture

You should do that to all the other images you jacked as well.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 23:42 | 2045652 fuu
fuu's picture

"I didn't realize it was from William. I googled 4th Turning images and the picture popped up."

Weak sauce, h'o't links.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 19:12 | 2045170 BrerRabbit
BrerRabbit's picture

The man is a genius. No doubt.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 18:40 | 2045101 Plumplechook
Plumplechook's picture

What a load of insane gibberish.  A mind-dump of incoherent, disconnected thought bubbles posing as prediction.  The only 'fourth turning' this man should be taking is the fourth bedroom down that long corridor where the nurse is waiting with his evening dose of anti-psychotics.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 18:51 | 2045132 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Ya and just like the church who railroaded Bruno Giordano who was then replaced by Kepler who said the same thing. Helocentricity.

Some people have enough experience with the wolrd to know the operating system. And they know when it's blue screen of death time. They probably won't be allowed back to teach other people but you keep experiencing it you'll keep seeing it.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 18:55 | 2045142 mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

It's not fair that DavidPierre gets to "contribute" (and I use that term loosely) under multiple names!

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 20:14 | 2045291 VyseLegendaire
VyseLegendaire's picture

Lmaoooo! Thanks for that, its true, Jim Quinn is a semi-literate assclown who repeats himself day after day with the same tired old half-baked concepts and predictions. 

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 18:40 | 2045105 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

this article was astounding in spite of its laud for denninger...

i consider this article must reading - and i hate must reading....

but if you want to know the machinations of the rockefeller-mic-yale-cia cabal you have found a good starting point.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 20:54 | 2045278 akak
akak's picture

this article was astounding in spite of its laud for denninger...

I caught that one too.

How anyone could consider Karl "Herr Forumfuhrer" Denninger --- that unapologetically statist, intellectually dishonest, hysterically intolerant, disingenuously anti-gold, rabidly authoritarian blogger --- a "brilliant truth-seeking analyst" is a total mystery to me.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 18:42 | 2045109 pineyard
pineyard's picture

BASEBALL BATS / GUNS / PAVEMENT CONCRETE and DETERMINED ORGANIZED PEOPLE is THE ONLY THING the RULING ELITES FEAR ...  NOTHING LESS WILL DO !

That takes LEADERS with Moral Integrity . Charisma and Organisational Intelligence ... and I havent seen or heard about anyone who comes near that description .

The FIRST THING to realize is that the rascals who have high-jacked western society need to get SCARED before anything POSITIVE will happen .

The ONLY THING which scares these SCUMBAGS is PHYSICAL VIOLENCE !

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 18:54 | 2045139 Seer
Seer's picture

No one "hijacked" western society.

The SIMPLE truth that most spend so much energy trying to ignore is that the "American Way of Life" ISN'T SUSTAINABLE!

What we're experiencing is the downturn of an empire, a downturn of a global economy.  Don't expect to return to some era of "Happy Days."

Begging for some "leader" to come along is a way of saying- "I'll take action if someone else tells me to."  Spend less time waiting for the messiah and more time doing things yourself!

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 19:06 | 2045163 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

WTF are you talking about. The FED Reserve can print its way out of this. More waffle irons and Nike Shoes in 2012

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 19:20 | 2045183 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Waffle irons are cheap..and have been for some time. We're on our third set in ten years. Weird.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 19:47 | 2045240 Seer
Seer's picture

Did you say waffle irons?  Crap!  I'm going to sign up right away- I don't have one! :-)

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 19:51 | 2045254 mkkby
mkkby's picture

The more aticles like this I see, the more sure I am we will muddle through relatively unscathed.  How many times do we need to hear predictions of doom that never happen?

This is not a crisis.  A few banks went under.  They had ridiculous leverage.  They should have died.  A few dictators had revolts.  They deserved it, and that happens quite often.

Turnings don't exist.  It's just another attempt to sell books by curve fitting and predicting doom.

The central banks will all print.  It may take 20 years but western society will muddle thru.  Living standards will be squeezed back.  Then resource scarcity will squeeze it back more.  The next several generations will see slow decline but not a crash.

Mon, 01/09/2012 - 04:53 | 2046057 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Yep.  Everything's fine.

Until it isn't, and you're either "living" in a camp, dead in the street, or firing back.

Mon, 01/09/2012 - 07:26 | 2046104 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

@Seer

All too true. But at the risk of being accused of a hopium addict, voting for Ron Paul at least goes a long way to try to redress the inevitable. I'm still not sure of the timeline - the collapse could come in a few months or in a few years. 

All I know is that this will be the most extreme form of extortion by TPTB ever - the height of "You're either with us or against us" threat in order to preserve the petrodollar. The status of the USD as the reserve currency affects everyone on the planet, so I reckon the alternatives (PMs), and shortcuts which couple unlikely currencies together will accelerate towards prominence in 2012, with a shit storm in the IMF over the ratio of the SDR. If Lagarde has any ideas about changing the makeup of the SDR, she should stay well away from the US, maybe live in a nuclear bunker for awhile.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 18:53 | 2045137 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Wow! Quite a presentation of interesting facts. Now I am depressed.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 19:05 | 2045160 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Have a drink or two .

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 19:11 | 2045168 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

I am going to Disney World........nothing bad ever happens there

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 19:13 | 2045173 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

If anything was done correctly during the past 100 years, I doubt that we would find ourselves in today's predictaments. 

“We do not have to visit a madhouse to find disordered minds; our planet is the mental institution of the universe.” Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

Perhaps inbreeding of the ruling oligarchies may have something to do with today's situations.  Let's have more hybrid vigor...

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 19:53 | 2045259 Seer
Seer's picture

"If anything was done correctly during the past 100 years, I doubt that we would find ourselves in today's predictaments."

If it only was different then it would be different...

Would you mind telling us what your version would have been?

Keep in mind that the grow-or/and-die meme was firmly on-track 100 years ago.

Mon, 01/09/2012 - 04:54 | 2046058 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

If my Aunt had balls she'd be my Uncle....

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 19:20 | 2045182 brushless backlash
brushless backlash's picture

There's one thing all of the doom and gloom bloomers have in common.  All of their predictions are based on economic ramifications, guns and ammo variables, financial mechanics, public awareness (in the USA- lack there of), food caches, etc..  When the energy supplies get interupted people are going to palm slap there foreheads realizing that they should have invested in horses and farmland rather than gold.  How are you going to run from place to place with all of that gold with zombie hordes chasing you?  If THEY are on horseback, then you'll become one of their sex slaves or what ever else they choose for you. But this period will only last for a few months if the electric grid goes down.  IF it does go down, then all of the nuke plants go pop and that's it for the northern hemisphere my friends.  Don't take my word for it -  http://enenews.com/

All of this economic stuff won't add up to a pinch of mill turd compared to the 20,000 years of indentured proginy that will have to deal with the fallout.

Before you internalize this reality, let me give you a glimmer of hope.  Rumor has it that GE actually recognizes this scenario and are quietly going around the US shutting down the BWR mark1 (boiling water reactors) before we have 100 Fukushimas going off.  If you are unfamiliar with the Mark1 designs go to http://fairewinds.com .  If you live downwind of one of these dirty bombs waiting to go off you might want to formulate an exit strategy.  

So lets help keep things together until we can successfully do a cold shut down on all reactors, most of which are at (current) sea level.  It can take years to cool these things down in a controlled shutdown.  3 mile island took 6 years to cool before they actually breached the core to see what happened.  Let's hold it together people.  The future is in our hands.  

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 20:28 | 2045318 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

"When the energy supplies get interupted people are going to palm slap there foreheads realizing that they should have invested in horses and farmland rather than gold."

 

Lol, I have been saying since last april to get a good saddle horse or have access to one. I have 7 and a pasture full of good boned colt's turning 2 this spring. 

Got gold bitcheeez? lol...........

I hope the f%ck it does not come down to this though. 

Thanks for the info on the down wind, double checking now. 

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 21:28 | 2045416 smiler03
smiler03's picture

I don't pretend to be an expert on nuclear reactors but you too are most definitely not. 

"It can take years to cool these things down in a controlled shutdown. ". Perhaps if you look at this wiki page it might make you relax a bit. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decay_heat Quote:

"At the moment of reactor shutdown, decay heat from these radioactive sources is still 6.5% of the previous core power, if the reactor has had a long and steady power history. About 1 hour after shutdown, the decay heat will be about 1.5% of the previous core power. After a day, the decay heat falls to 0.4%, and after a week it will be only 0.2%."

I think the most important thing learnt from Fukushima is the necessity to have 100% power back up for a bit more than a few hours. 

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 19:27 | 2045196 max2205
max2205's picture

Karl Brilliant?.....better find a new hero. Omfg!!!

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 20:31 | 2045320 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Karl has his moments of lucidity, but he still a douche...

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 23:35 | 2045657 akak
akak's picture

Karl "Lucid Douche" Denninger .... it has a certain ring to it.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 19:29 | 2045198 mendolover
mendolover's picture

In my opinion, if there is a terror attack on US soil, the chances of it being false flag CIA are WAY more then if it were genuine.  Of course I pray that neither occurs.  That is the last thing this country needs at this time.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 19:35 | 2045213 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

1955 Pole shift indicated danger up ahead was ignored. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H23Wm0rE7Ao&feature=related 

 

 

Mon, 01/09/2012 - 08:00 | 2046126 Colonial Intent
Colonial Intent's picture

We are only 12,00 years overdue for one, anyways according to the rocks they studied it will only affect electric and magnetic systems, am hoping the faraday cage i built my house inside protects against it.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 19:37 | 2045218 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

You don't need to have a bomb go off for economic devastation to happen. And the dumb as turnips US sheeple won't raise a wimper if it all happens gradually. But they will get fleeced. It's already happening and the pace is picking up: purchasing power of a US buck is plummeting as prices rise while net worth and real incomes tumble. Savings are going to crap. Sheeple pay 15% for credit card loans, banks pay sub 1%. Austerity will take away lots of anticipated future income from social security and medicare FICA pay deductions. Healthcare quality and quantity will dry up. Educational loans and  tuition will become prohibitive. 

So that will leave most people with the option to get back on the turnip truck, all at once. 

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 21:40 | 2045433 smiler03
smiler03's picture

Agree completely. Just one comment, British Airways (aka Shitty Airways) currently has a

"British Airways American Express® Cards" promotion. APR is a bargain 50.1%.  In the UK a 15% card would be a huge bargain!
Sun, 01/08/2012 - 22:17 | 2045498 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Wow. That's an eye-opener

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 19:42 | 2045229 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Don't worry, Maurice Strong and Al Gore have new data to support new global warming warnings. New speculation models in jet stream forecasting will jump start the mothballed CCX exchange.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 19:54 | 2045261 fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

Silver For The People – The Blog

http://brotherjohnf.com/

Euro still falling. EUR/JPY opening very ugly
Ron Paul: The Greatest Master of Political Rhetoric Since Reagan
TFMR Podcast #10 – Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform
Harvey Organ – Greece/QEIII ready to be released in both Europe and USA/Sabre rattling between Iran and the USA
90% of Dutch Gold Reserve Is Held Abroad
Mike Maloney on Gold Standard, War, Price to Meet Currency Supply & A New Monetary System
Munknee – Contracting Fibonacci Spiral Puts Gold Near $4,000 by 2013
Bob Chapman – International Forecaster January 2012
Iran, Russia Replace Dollar with National Currencies in Trade Exchanges
Lew Rockwell – Heil Santorum
SGTbull07 Interviews The Dollar Vigilante – 1/7/12
Financial Sense Newshour – 1/7/12
Empire Club Outlook 2012: Why Rising Debt Will Lead to $10,000 Gold
King World News – Weekly Metals Wrap – Saturday, January 7, 2012
King World News – Eric King Interviews Nigel Farage
Hey Silver lovers : Watch this video ! ! !
Peter Schiff – NIA is a Scam – Do not promote their videos
Keiser Report: Spiral of debt towards the paranormal
Ted Butler: Commercials Have No Interest in Shorting Silver Again
Silver’s safe haven status intact despite price slide
The Dollar Vigilante – Who’s Worse: The Nazis or the US Government?
When ‘Statistics’ Become Gibberish
SRSrocco – First Time Ever: Silver Sales Surpass Domestic Production

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 20:36 | 2045328 Awakened Sheeple
Awakened Sheeple's picture

The NIA is Gerald Celente's gig isn't it? Interesting video by Schiff..

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=8h-a1kKOkNM

 

Thanks bagger..

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 21:17 | 2045394 Hobbleknee
Hobbleknee's picture

The NIA is Gerald Celente's gig isn't it?

Nope.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 22:41 | 2045550 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The NIA is just a dude who started a video blog. He had a couple pretty good pieces in the beginning then he started pushing penny stocks. He's just another circus clown.

Mon, 01/09/2012 - 05:20 | 2046063 greenbear
greenbear's picture

Aren't you the same person who is trolling Brother John F's videos about him being an Inflationist, ergo he must be a part of NIA?  You commented that because he featured Peter Schiff's anti-NIA video on his blog that he is affiliated with NIA?  And what does Gerald Celente have to do with NIA?  Is everyone who is not a deflationist, and who has a presence on YouTube, affiliated with NIA then? Your comments border on the bizarre.  Sorry, man, but you've got problems.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 19:59 | 2045270 VyseLegendaire
VyseLegendaire's picture

"They believe an economic recovery can be manufactured through monetary manipulation and Keynesian borrowing and spending. They are blind to the fact that history is cyclical, not linear."

History is not cyclical.  Moving on...

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 19:59 | 2045273 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

I wish I could pay $3.29 for a gallon of unleaded! Try paying $9.08 to $9.49 as we do in England.

The article is not wrong, but just a tad on the weird side. I'll have to read all about this fourth turning thing before I can render an opinion.

Mon, 01/09/2012 - 09:46 | 2046269 PJPony
PJPony's picture

When comparing petrol prices with the US, you must keep in mind that the entire UK would fit within a single, small US state.  There is no comparison.

Petrol prices of $9-10/gallon here (US) would be certain destruction for the US economy. 

 

Mon, 01/09/2012 - 10:38 | 2046391 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

Just whining out loud. Most of the high price is tax anyway, I don't think economies of scale affects the difference in price that much. Still, it does go to show that it is possible (certainly not desirable!) for fuel prices to go up that high in a developed country without mass rioting (Or may be not, those riots in London last Summer are still fresh). 

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 20:15 | 2045293 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

This was a good article until I came to this line:
"They are not the evil, freedom hating, religious fanatic terrorists portrayed by the neo-cons and war mongers like Santorum, Gingrich and Romney."

They way I see it is the neolibs are just as blood thirsty. None of these three hold office right now. The neolibs control the keys to the military and they are expanding the wars.
I don't support any of the bastards. They are all evil in my book , but it does a disservice to the writer to not hold them all accountable.
Hopefully Ron Paul can make a difference and deliver on his promises.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 20:22 | 2045307 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

"What could go wrong?"

Is anything going right?!!

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 20:23 | 2045308 jwoop66
jwoop66's picture

Liked the article until you tried to say how noble and informed the occupy people were.   You gotta be kidding.  I watched that "movement" from many different angles and the only thing that could be said for most occupiers is that they are ignorant socialists.   maybe a few of their leaders have a clue, but most are morons.   All i got from all I saw and read from the occupy movement was that they wanted the govt to have more power. Of course they wanted a kind and benevelent dictatorship, but they wanted to be ruled at any rate.    Useful idiots. 

Mon, 01/09/2012 - 07:55 | 2046121 Colonial Intent
Colonial Intent's picture

Wow, you actually went to an occupy site and spoke to the participants.

What where they like, what did they say?

Pardon, oh you did not go there you just watched tvland and repeated their BS like a good monkey.

Good boy.............. here's a banana, go play in the corner while the adults talk, good boy:-)

 

Mon, 01/09/2012 - 12:46 | 2046798 jwoop66
jwoop66's picture

Yes i did,  And I talked  to supporters who didn't go to the site.   I saw different sites from all over the country on TV and on many various internet sites.   What were they like?  What did they say?    The ones I spoke with personally were either middle aged trust fund babies or college children.  They seemed to agree that it is the evil corporations who brought the economy down, and if we all vote for Obama again he will make everything right, and we will get more free stuff  at the "rich's" expense.   Strangely, I heard the same nonsense on many TV broadcasts (Even CNN, RT, PBS, and Current TV couldn't show any participants that seemed to have a clue), and on many different Internet sites(Huffington, Politico etc.).  

Back your venom up, colonial.  

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 20:23 | 2045311 luna_man
luna_man's picture

 

 

And if, you were starting to feel it wasn't so bad...

Should we take prisoners?

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 20:24 | 2045314 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture


Though there is much to recommend in Quinn's increasingly tiresome polemics it remains mostly a pastiche of endless reiterations garnered from around the net sprinkled with a healthy admixture of shameless hyperbole and tabloid type sensationalism. Anyone who has explored the critical issues which are addressed here sees little that is new. The same charts reflecting the collapse of credit and unsustainable debt are culled and reproduced ad nauseam. The same shrill and semi-hysterical auguries of impending doom with the trembling fingers of indignant accusation pointing to the well known villainies of corporate and statist psychopaths. Pronounced with the unassailable rectitude of self righteous vindication and moral superiority so characteristic of the inflexible ideologue and like so many other of our self styled secular Savonarolas, Quinn has peddled his pseudo-revolutionary keyboard crusade to new heights of opportunism, absurdity, self aggrandizement and personal greed. Quinn's scabrous and obscene diatribes which greet even the mildest critique on the BP comment board suggest the same type of "pathological" personality which he so gratuitously excoriates in the evil minions of Wall Street. 

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 20:59 | 2045370 Jim Quinn
Jim Quinn's picture

Wow. You are the most pompous blowhard on ZH. Do you know when to shut the fuck up?

You add zero to the dialogue, but you did get to use your thesaurus.

 

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 21:26 | 2045411 DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture

AW... Did little hockey-helmeted SmokeyQuinn get his delicate feelings hurted?

Start posting again under an alias and then lie through your teeth about it.  Let us see who is the most pompous blowhard on ZH.

Why don't you tell all about how your previous webmaster dumped your sorry ass as an outed LIAR.

How's your progress in 'Special Class' on 9/11Truth going?

You still slobbering on your keyboard while eating your boogers?

 

 

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 22:31 | 2045528 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Best pithy post of the day. :)

Mon, 01/09/2012 - 02:38 | 2045970 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Not certain why I'm getting junked. Maybe the junkers don't get that When the author says "but you got to use your thesaurus " , I'm backing him up.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 22:40 | 2045548 americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

Hi Jim - please recognize the difference between a pompous blowhard and an incompetent paid disinformation troll. Don't demean yourself by being baited. You have many, many allies and you don't need to defend yourself. Thank you for caring enough to put your ideas out front even if it means exposing yourself to this kind of crap. A prophet is without honor in his own land.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 21:12 | 2045389 itstippy
itstippy's picture

Translation:

"Quinn has good insight but he's increasingly redundant, his supporting documentation is stale, and his language is sensational.   We've heard all this before and seen the charts before, many times.  Quinn sees economic collapse and blames greedy corporate bigwigs and sellout politicians.  We get the message, OK?  Since Quinn doesn't take criticism well I'll write this using big long words and see if that gets under his skin.  Basically, I hate his gasconade so I'll fling it right back at him."

Mon, 01/09/2012 - 01:19 | 2045868 12ToothAssassin
12ToothAssassin's picture

Your point is valid though a little over the top. Not everyone is as advanced to the awakening as ZH'ers, this article is a fantastic tool and thanks to Mr Quinn for chaining the events together in a coherent fashion. Ive sent it to a few sheeple who read it and are really starting to see the full scope of the ponzi and their role as slaves. The article didnt really teach me anything I didnt already know but it sure was a great opportunity to get a few more sheeple to wake the F up.

Mon, 01/09/2012 - 04:22 | 2046038 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

 

 

Yardfarmer - regarding your antideluvian polemic railing against Mr. Quinn being Mr. Quinn:

+1 verbiage

-1 histrionics

 

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 20:57 | 2045363 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

Proven Crude Oil Reserves Chart is missing Canada which is in third place at 175,000 (depending on who's data you use).  I wonder where the chart came from?  (cite you sources please)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_proven_oil_reserves

This is the link to the EIA reserve estimates, they also compare different estimates here

http://www.eia.gov/international/reserves.html

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 21:09 | 2045383 Jim Quinn
Jim Quinn's picture

My guess is that crude oil reserves does not include tar sands. If the chart said oil reserves it would include Canada.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 21:33 | 2045421 mendolover
mendolover's picture

Yes.  I was wondering where the Kanooks were on that chart.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 22:08 | 2045483 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

....and Canada would not fit too well with the argument being made.....the Canadian tar sands hold massive amounts of oil it just takes quite a bit of energy to extract that oil. It would be an excellent application for small nuclear plants, such as those used by the navy, to produce steam used for the extraction process....and they would be far enough inland to almost assure that a tsunami could not reach them. But I guess the Canadians are a bit slow when it comes to being a bit inventive.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 22:29 | 2045524 mjk0259
mjk0259's picture

That must be why they have a higher standard of living then US, universal health care, no real estate or bank collapse. Those dumb Canadians. Lots of US and other foreign companies have Canadian tar sands operations.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 22:42 | 2045551 the misanthrope
the misanthrope's picture

The tar sands or bituminous sands are unconventional petroleum deposits and it would seem they are not regarded as crude oil deposits. crude being unrefined. petroleum = petra , rock, oleum, oil

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 20:59 | 2045372 Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

"Or America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition."

Likely too late, in the best of circumstances.  (Vote RP, though, please -- we gotta try)

Shared values, whatever's left, have been relegated to the basement, preempted by countless and very thick layers of enabled self-absorption, vacuousness, and entitlement. 

Organizations get sick. 

We got sick.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 21:00 | 2045373 Georgesblog
Georgesblog's picture

At some point, somebody is goinmg to turn on the lights, and the cockroaches scatter. With each passing week, it looks like print or go home.  The central banks are looking at finding the right time to do something drastic, even if it's wrong.

http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/11/02/the-daily-climb-2/

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 21:02 | 2045376 jomama
jomama's picture

pretty stoked.  

got my first gun last month.

landed a killer cabin out in the remote redwood forest - got really lucky on this arrangement. (no real address!)

new stronghold and no one will ever find my stash, either!  

working on my heirloom seedbank, courtesy of my organic farmer mother, and a sweet water filtration system (i'm on a well).

let the mother fucker burn to the ground.  

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 21:35 | 2045424 mendolover
mendolover's picture

Redwoods?  No real address?  Stash?  Damn I'm jealous!

Mon, 01/09/2012 - 00:02 | 2045720 TradingTroll
TradingTroll's picture

Very nice! You will enjoy the fresh air.

Oh, what's this, hot particles of CS137, SR90 and PU239. A microgram of PU239 nonetheless! And several micrograms of CS137 lodged in the lungs. (A microgram of PU239 to the lungs and you're dead in 3-5yrs. Fuku aerosolized 500 tons of PU239)

Give it up already. Escape is futile. Good luck getting cancer meds of a house visit by an MD when you have no address.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 21:08 | 2045381 Newager23
Newager23's picture

His main point is that we are entering a new era and that the old paradigm is breaking down. I think you have to be blind to not see it coming. When he says a return to normal is not going to happen, he is talking about having a since of calm that the future will resemble the past. Think of your mindset in 1995. Everything looked rosy. The stock market was strong, unemployment was low, housing was cheap, inflation was low. That was the normal we all would like to have today. But it is gone, and that is his point. 

Those with rose colored glasses think we are still in that world of a rosy outlook. But get real. Not only is it gone, but it is getting worse by the day. That's why gold is at $1600 and we love to talk about it. Who talked about gold in 1995? NO ONE. Who talked about oil in 1995? NO ONE.

Not only is debt (what he started out with) unsustainable and about to cause enormous economic pain, but the impact is going to be felt by everyone. To ignore what is coming, and to have optimism that our way of life can continue onward at our current standard of living, is naive to a high degree.

Debt is going to get us, but it is oil that is the real death knell. By 2015, we simply will not have enough oil to expand the global economy. I expect this looming energy crisis to impact our lives before then, maybe even this year. But the closer we get to 2015, the more impact this energy crisis will have. And the transition into a new economy based on a new energy paradigm is not going to be a sweet ride for most of us.

Hold on to your boot straps and get ready for change. Our way of life is about to transform into something new. What that will be is hard to say, although I've written a few books on the subject. 

And buy some gold and silver. If you like mining stocks, then go here: (www.goldsilverdata.com)

Regards,

Newager

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 21:47 | 2045445 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Nice post. When you say things were rosy in 1995 vs now I agree. But the main point should be that things were rosy for the avg American aka middle class back then. The biggest difference between then and now: expectations for the average person are declining, not even staying even. And at the same time things are extremely rosy for a few and extremely alarming for a lot in the fat tails of the bell curve. 

So it's the fact that the middle is worse off and in decline combined with the fact that inequality is getting worse fast that is souring things right now and for the foreseeable future

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 21:12 | 2045385 itstippy
itstippy's picture

Posting error.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 21:14 | 2045391 captain_menace
captain_menace's picture

"They are like sharks, always needing more to satiate their hunger."

I'm fairly certain that a completely satiated shark is no more dangerous than any other satiated carnivore.  If you're implying evil intent, I'm not sure using a wild animal as an example is very useful.  Most carnivores get a bad enough rap without being compared to shitty human beings.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 21:28 | 2045404 akak
akak's picture

I think where he was trying to go with the shark analogy is the fact that a shark must continue swimming at all times in order to pass enough water through its gills in order to breathe.  They literally cannot stop their entire lives --- they even have to keep swimming while at sleep, so only one-half of their brains will be "asleep" at a time, so that they can keep moving forward.  That is why sharks are usually found dead in nets --- they actually will drown if immobilized underwater (or above water for that matter).

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 22:01 | 2045467 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

That's just anothe urban legend....I have been diving in Hawaii where one can find sleeping sharks....trust me they are not swimming...

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 22:46 | 2045564 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Nurse sharks and the more quiescent varieties.

The larger predators like the Great Whites have to swim more and eat more.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 21:15 | 2045393 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

I don't even know why the "fast collapse or slow let down" part was mentioned?  99weeks to adjust from riches to rags.  99 weeks is "about the right amount of time" needed to get someone fully depressed and unable to fight back and accept that they are a loser and grateful to have a tent.  Some sort of conditioning?

I guess I can't really say too much that people on this site don't already know.

My biggest intermidiate concerns is this SOPA shit.  Will this completely shut down the net? Or just fubar the likes of ZH???? This is a serious issue because many people like me that have lost their jobs have turned to the net for income.  What now? Fuck us too?  That's the end of the motherfucking straw for me.

I have occasional thoughts of putting the bottle down and getting in shape.  I still haven't made my mind up on that one.  If things spiral out of control to a degree  I see possible I don't know if it's worth the effort. 

I can handle just about all the bs possibilities in this article except for one: bird flu or something similar.  I'd by far rather get shot or blown up than die from being sick. 

Don't confuse my SOPA comments with being selfish and not seeing the bigger picture.  My concerns are they'll have a large percentage of the population living in complete total hell for YEARS and I just want to somehow make it from this point to the day of reckoning without having suffered too much.

In the end id like to conclude that thinking a way out of this is futile.  The name of the game will shift to survival on a very primitive level.  No one is safe.  I just hope that I survive long enough to see some of the motherfuckers that caused this wiped off the face of the earth.  You can spew forth solutions all you want, im convinced it's game over. 

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 21:36 | 2045428 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

Where we are today is a sum result of countless victories by both the forces of good and the forces of evil and where we will be tomorrow is pre-determined by this endless struggle - the future has been forged in the past....

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 21:59 | 2045461 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Well, the oil reserves chart is wrong....Canada was not listed and that country's oil sands probably hold about 5X the middle east's total.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 22:05 | 2045476 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

All this fun going on and Gold and Silver (real money) is still getting bitch slapped.
Check out the 6 month and the 1 year lease rates on both of them tonight.
Gold and silver.....
Centrals banks PAYING to lease their metals.

FUCK YOU'S Bankers.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 22:41 | 2045540 AC_Doctor
AC_Doctor's picture

These chunts have already sold the same metal 99x over.  Nooses for them all!

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 22:30 | 2045517 Earl of Chiswick
Earl of Chiswick's picture

From the Irish Times

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2012/0103/1224309734610.html

 

Wasting good words on a terrible situation

by FINTAN O'TOOLE

excerpt

 

Austerity

 

No, it isn’t. It is not austerity when we have civil servants being paid €214,000 a year. It’s not austerity when TDs can still change their mobile phones at public expense every 18 months; when Ministers can claim a €3,500 tax deduction for “maintenance costs” defined by Michael Noonan as “laundry etc” and political handlers are insulted at the idea that they might have to serve their country on anything less than €127,000 a year. Above all, it’s not austerity when we are proposing to set fire to about €4.7 billion a year for each of the next 10 years to “save” Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide, neither of which actually exists.

 

Sacrifice 

There’s a hell of a difference between making a sacrifice and being sacrificed.

Mon, 01/09/2012 - 09:17 | 2046222 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

You think the powers that are being asked to fund the continuation of the Eurozone would get it as their underlings learn that Greek and Irish civil servants are making more than they.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 22:35 | 2045534 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

OT

I'm sure that this is all very important, but I want to share with fellow ZHers a sure sign of the End Times.

Yesterday I went to see Tinker Tailor.  It was really, really good. 

But as I was walking out of the theater, an older man looked at me and smiled.  I saw what he looked at just before.  He saw the Zero Hedge baseball cap that I always wear. 

I have walked past 10,000 people in Ann Arbor, Michigan wearing that cap.  Yesterday, I finally came across somebody who knew what it meant.

I was starting to think that I had imagined all you people.  But you're really out there, arent you.

The future is ours.

 

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 22:39 | 2045546 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Neo : I know you're out there...I can feel you now. I know that

you're afraid. You're afraid of us, you're afraid of

change...I don't know the future...I didn't come here to

tell you how this is going to end, I came here to tell you

how this is going to begin. Now, I'm going to hang up

this phone, and I'm going to show these people what you

don't want them to see

Mon, 01/09/2012 - 00:02 | 2045683 akak
akak's picture

Mick Richfield, have you ever eaten at Zingerman's Deli in Kerrytown?  It is the BEST deli, bar none, in all of Michigan!

My dad and I were their very first customers, back in March of 1982.  I still pop in there every time I visit Ann Arbor (should be there again in a couple of months).

Tell you what, if you are still  in A2 then, I will meet you there for lunch, if you are open to that.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 22:37 | 2045539 Flammonde
Flammonde's picture

Corporations own governments.  Wealthy people own corporations. The power elite serve the status quo of private wealth controlling power.  Largely all our problems arise from an absence of democracy.  The power is balanced between the public and the powerful, at least to the extent if the people do really dislke what the powerful do, they can still organize politically to change this-unlike many places on this planet.  That they do not is a failure of nerve.  What is needed is political engagement and smarter tactics.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 22:43 | 2045553 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

A recipe for revolution if I've ever seen one.

Mon, 01/09/2012 - 00:11 | 2045740 The Old Man
The Old Man's picture

"Goodnight Mrs. Callabash."

"Wherever you are?"

Just to show you that all is not lost so long as we hold onto our memories and our principles.

"They" may have what we have all desired.

They can never have what we really own and keep dear to our heats and souls. 

Sorry for the OT. I'm in a funk reading AOTA.

Mon, 01/09/2012 - 00:18 | 2045755 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

"One needs to read a book to understand what is glaringly obvious? Odd"  -Tyler Durden

Mon, 01/09/2012 - 04:34 | 2046042 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"Corporate Profits After Tax as % of GDP" is my favorite chart.

No, we don't need to elect Romney the corporate Zombie or re-elect Debt Brother from Planet Zero.

We probably will.

Unfortunately, when you don't take your problems in hand, they usually take you to the woodshed.

Mon, 01/09/2012 - 06:14 | 2046082 DrunkenMonkey
DrunkenMonkey's picture

Best guest post I've read here in a while. Hopefully this guy will be standing for election in the not too distant future.

Mon, 01/09/2012 - 08:56 | 2046182 Golden monkey
Golden monkey's picture

Now, the main event :

How many whores in the US will support Ron Paul?

We will remember the good old days where there use to be civil rights in the US.

Voting (stupid) whores. That's where the US decline started. And that's where it will end. 

Mon, 01/09/2012 - 09:15 | 2046218 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

Let's put it this way ... I was looking for a cheap night-stand for my beach condo, so I went to Target:  Store was empty, and the cheap crap they had was both crappy and overpriced.  Went to the local Goodwill store: Store was packed.  Cheap, used crap was crappy but affordable for the mixed array of people picking through it.  

Bottom line:  We have had so much excess in the US in the past several decades that we could cut off all trade to China, etc. and live on our throw away stuff for years to come, and that is already happening at the lower strata of society.  When iPads and all the other iToys start showing up in second-hand shops, it is truly a sign of Game Over.

Mon, 01/09/2012 - 10:45 | 2046405 PJPony
PJPony's picture

Ever been to a pawn shop?  i-Pads, big screen tv's and other assorted play things for sale in bulk!  That time has come.  You're just shopping in the wrong places.

Mon, 01/09/2012 - 13:27 | 2046931 Sunshine n Lollipops
Sunshine n Lollipops's picture

I have seen the future, and it is Craigslist.

Mon, 01/09/2012 - 22:10 | 2048468 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

Nietzsche famously said "What does not kill me makes me stronger." The corollary is "What constantly rescues me makes me weaker." The world will only stop looking for bailouts when policy makers stop handing them out.

The paradox of spending. The more they pay, the more they pay, until they can't pay no more.

Its a moebius strip with debt written on one side and savings on the other and the bankers drive around it in an infinite loop.

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 11:38 | 2050261 Frostys
Frostys's picture

My prediction that Euro will continue to fall. And I wrote article how to make money on EUR/USD in 2012. Please visit http://pipburner.com/using-the-eurozone-crisis-to-make-money-with-the-eurusd/

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 01:44 | 2133035 Heyoka Bianco
Heyoka Bianco's picture

If Occupy offered alternative to a fully-captured government instead oa more invasive, command economy government, just with the "right people in charge" . . .

 

If there were any why available to the public to "arm yourself" against a Predator drone (or the new Skynet Special, which needs no human input). . .

 

If "irate soccer moms" had any more real influence than those that can see through the fiat subterfuge. . .

 

If anyone stupid enough to believe they have "wealth tied up" in a mortgaged structure they have to live in could be "re=educated" in the way things really are . . .

 

If Ron Paul could "have a dramatic impact on the debate and the outcome of the 2012 election" (even if he's dead!) when the author himslef states the two major party candidates are Wall Street muppets . . . 

 

Maybe if all these conditions were met, this article would be worthwhile, and not a pointless rehash of things ZHers have been hearing and reading since, oh, 1992.

 

 

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