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Guest Post: Chinese Chaos Is The Immediate Threat To The Dollar

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Submitted by John Aziz of Azizonomics

Chinese Chaos Is The Immediate Threat To The Dollar

In twenty or thrity years, I expect future monetary historians looking back on this period of history to frequently misquote Ernest Hemingway:

How did the dollar die? First it died slowly — then all at once.

The slow death began with the dollar’s birth as a global reserve currency. America was creditor and manufacturer to the world, and the capitalist superpower. People around the globe transacted overwhelmingly in dollars. Above all else, people needed dollars to conduct trade, and they were willing to pay richly for them, and for dollar-denominated debt.

By the ’90s America began enjoying a tremendous free lunch — the world provided America with goods, resources and services, and Americans provided the global reserve currency, as well as acting as world military policing global shipping. Why manufacture at home, or produce resources at home when the world wants your currency? To get what you want, all you have to do is run your printing press — which was much easier after 1971, when Nixon ended the gold exchange standard. In a flat free-trade world, supply chains and technology agglomerated wherever the labour was cheapest, which was predominantly Asia. So America let her industrial base and her domestic supply webs degenerate, to enjoy the free lunch that the dollar brought:

The next leg of the story is that foreigners realised that actually maybe the necessity of the dollar was an illusion. With America no longer the world’s manufacturer or creditor, who needs America? If you need a consumer, there are billions of people and trillions of dollars, and trillions of dollars worth of resources in Asia, and South America, and Europe. America’s government is deeply-indebted, and its military is bogged-down in difficult conflicts around the world.

As Ron Paul noted:

We are like a man who used to be rich and is in the habit of paying for everybody’s meals and announces at a lavish dinner that he will pay the bill, only to then turn to the fellow sitting nearby and say, “Can I use your credit card? I will pay you back!”

While fund managers continue to refer to the dollar and the US treasury as a safe haven, America’s sovereign creditors seem to feel quite differently.

As Zhang Jianhua of the People’s Bank of China put it:

No asset is safe now. The only choice to hedge risks is to hold hard currency — gold.

The shift away from the dollar has quickly manifested itself in bilateral and multilateral agreements between nations to ditch the dollar for bilateral and multilateral trade, beginning with the chief antagonists China and Russia, and continuing through Iran, India, Japan, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia.

So the ground seems to have fallen out from beneath the petrodollar world order.

Yet at the same time, the powers moving away from the dollar have a lot invested in the system. The two biggest sovereign holders of US treasuries are Japan and China. China alone holds $3 trillion of US currency, and $1 trillion of debt. They have no reason to crash the value of their own assets. Their planned endgame appears to be a slow, phased and managed transition to a new global reserve currency. China wants to gradually reduce their exposure to America, transferring to harder assets.

Yet history rarely turns out how nations have planned, and China itself seems increasingly beset with domestic problems.

From Bloomberg:

China’s biggest banks may fall short of loan targets for the first time in at least seven years as an economic slowdown crimps demand for credit, three bank officials with knowledge of the matter said.

 

A decline in lending in April and May means it’s likely the banks’ total new loans for 2012 will be about 7 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion), less than an estimated government goal of 8 trillion yuan to 8.5 trillion yuan, said one of the officials, declining to be identified because the person isn’t authorized to speak publicly. Banks are relying on small and mid-sized companies for loan growth after demand from the biggest state- owned borrowers dropped, the people said. 

 

The drying up of loan demand attests to the severity of China’s slowdown and may add pressure on Premier Wen Jiabao to cut interest rates and expand stimulus measures. The economy may grow in 2012 at its slowest pace in 13 years, a Bloomberg News survey showed last week, as Europe’s debt crisis curbs exports, manufacturing shrinks and demand for new homes wanes.

China may be a manufacturing powerhouse, and the spider at the heart of global trade, but its domestic and social order looks in a state of disarray, pock-marked with ghost citiesindustrial accidents and ecological disasters. And throwing stimulus money into an economy already recording screeching inflation will be like throwing fuel onto a fire.

As the Chinese (and wider Asian) economic picture becomes bleaker, pressure will grow on politicians to take more drastic and rash measures. They may try to rally the disaffected behind them with an increasingly confrontational nationalistic attitude to America. And unable to match America militarily, their major outlet would be economic warfare — competitive devaluation, threats, tariffs, export controls, and an all-out assault on the dollar reserve standard. Additionally, American policymakers also encumbered with huge economic problems may look to economic warfare as policy — the standout example is Mitt Romney’s desire to brand China as a currency manipulator for accumulating US treasuries and impose tariffs, even while the Treasury upgrades the PBOC to primary dealer status.

This brewing firestorm suggests that rather than the gradual transition that all parties claim to desire we are likely to see a much faster and more volatile one. I don’t know which straw will break the camel’s back, but it is likely to come sooner, rather than later. First slowly — now all at once.

 


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Sat, 05/26/2012 - 16:47 | Link to Comment Joe The Plumber
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That was originally a Mark Twain quote.

When asked how he went bankrupt he said " at first very slowly, then very rapidly."

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 16:52 | Link to Comment THX 1178
THX 1178's picture

No, it was Hemingway.

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 17:27 | Link to Comment Ahmeexnal
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It could very well have been Daniel Dafoe too.

From wikipedia:

Daniel Defoe ( /?dænj?l d??fo?/; ca. 1659–1661 to 24 April 1731),[1] born Daniel Foe, was an English trader, writer, journalist, and pamphleteer, who gained fame for his novel Robinson Crusoe.

Although Defoe was a Christian, he decided not to become a dissenting minister and entered the world of business as a general merchant, dealing at different times in hosiery, general woollen goods and wine. Though his ambitions were great and he bought both a country estate and a ship (as well as civet cats to make perfume), he was rarely out of debt. In 1684, Defoe married Mary Tuffley, the daughter of a London merchant, and received a dowry of £3,700. With his debts and political trouble, their marriage was most likely a difficult one. It lasted 50 years, however, and together they had eight children, six of whom survived.[4]

Daniel Defoe died on 24 April 1731, probably while in hiding from his creditors.

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 19:54 | Link to Comment RafterManFMJ
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Daniel Defoe died on 24 April 1731, probably while in hiding from his creditors.

Daniel Defoe, the first real American.

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 02:42 | Link to Comment Michael
Michael's picture

There is nothing in the known universe that can stop the mega gigantic Chinese housing bubble from bursting.

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 12:22 | Link to Comment RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

It was always about the mess getting around to them finally.  Hang on for the ride.

 

 

 

 

 

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 17:07 | Link to Comment Colombian Gringo
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The dollar died because of the horrible abuse of reserve status.

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 17:50 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
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The dollar died because of a hart attack caused by A ignored diabetic condition.

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 18:30 | Link to Comment lasvegaspersona
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Columbo

exorbitant (abused) privilege 

BUT as long as the world can buy gold for a mere 1560 per ounce....the dollar will be fine...in fact if gold can be had at any price it will be fine...just not as fine as it was at 300/oz

the dollar as good as (some) gold...

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 19:14 | Link to Comment Hugh_Jorgan
Sat, 05/26/2012 - 23:22 | Link to Comment cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

the standout example is Mitt Romney’s desire to brand China as a currency manipulator for accumulating US treasuries

WHAT???

Currency manipulator?  For buying treasuries because we begged them to ...and still do?

Obomney's just fucking insane.

That shit right there is why asian nations are saying fuck this US dollar bullshit, we're gona fire up our own pan-asian gold-backed currency ...and spin up every nuclear warhead we have in case those American bastards wana do something about it.

 

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 04:31 | Link to Comment Arthur Borges
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China has a total of 16 to 20 single-megaton single-warhead DF-5A missiles capable of reaching any target in the Continental USA plus up to another 30 single-warhead DF-21 missiles of somewhat shorter range. The rest of the deterrent covers only regional targets.

A single SSBN has 24 Trident missiles, each theoretically mirved with only eight warheads each (out of a potential 12). Which equals 192 warheads per submarines (out of a potential of 288). 

There are five to eight SSBNs on station in the Pacific 24/7, with two on hard alert.

This is without counting anthing Brit or French that might reckon into the equation.

China is not suicidal.

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 06:49 | Link to Comment Zeilschip
Zeilschip's picture

So 10 nukes on one city is better than 'just' 1 nuke? Numbers 2 to 10 are there to kill off anything that survived the first nuke??

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 19:34 | Link to Comment spinone
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its the triffin dilemma.

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 19:56 | Link to Comment RafterManFMJ
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Yea saw that episode - they got into the grain and multiplied everywhere! Kirk was going crazy!

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 20:51 | Link to Comment bank guy in Brussels
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It was Star Trek animal cruelty - In the end they beamed them on to the Klingon ship to get rid of them.

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 17:11 | Link to Comment WmMcK
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He did say:
"Action speaks louder than words but not nearly as often."

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 09:12 | Link to Comment Tsukato
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 Online I found a list of "bad words" which red flag emails, texts, etc. by the authorities. I thought to myself " most people are too afraid to ever rise up against the man, but perhaps there is some passive-aggressive action that most people could be bothered to do, and could keep the g-men busy/overloaded". This list of words should be spread to everyone, and attached at the end of every message we all write online, during chat, emails, etc. Please take this list, and pass it along to everyone you know. Thanks and vaya con Dios. Here is where to find the list: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2150281/REVEALED-Hundreds-words-...

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 16:49 | Link to Comment VonManstein
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This is a managed retreat by the western powers.. They know the game is up.. Question is will it be a stalinesque scorched earth policy of a retreat (probably)

either way China will come out of this on top.. They gonna suffer of course, but they are well positioned to inherit whats left.

I think Schiff’s analysis on china is the most accurate and logical

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 09:14 | Link to Comment eclectic syncretist
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China's known domestic production of gold has been steadily increasing for over a decade

http://www.goldsheetlinks.com/production.htm

China's known holdings have also been steadily rising

How much have non-disclosed holdings changed? 

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 16:51 | Link to Comment sitenine
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Homer: "The word unblowupable is thrown around a lot lately."

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 17:01 | Link to Comment WmMcK
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Iliad?

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 12:05 | Link to Comment akak
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Oddyssey

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 12:25 | Link to Comment Bollixed
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Simpson

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 19:17 | Link to Comment Dead Canary
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Q: Is "unblowupable" a real word?

A: Yes, unblowupable is perfectly corrumulant.

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 16:56 | Link to Comment debtor of last ...
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Renminbi chaos is a threat to euro/dollar chaos.

Chaos theorie bitchez.

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 16:58 | Link to Comment davood
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The correct technical term for U.S. "Treasuries" is U.S. "Toiletries."

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 17:00 | Link to Comment Aziz
Aziz's picture

I prefer "doesn't contain any treasure".

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 17:11 | Link to Comment resurger
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If wallstreet knows that am short on the 30Y, ill get short squeezed on NIR of -10% ON

JPM, MS, & GS must buy US Toilet paper ....i have an 20 EMP nades (Made in USA), can you send me the physical location of their servers and remote backup servers.

blow the servers, Free The Entire Financial System

 

 

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 19:25 | Link to Comment The Monkey
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That's a gutsy call with a lot of risk.  Even though I sold my long treasury positions last week, I would look for a panic spike (aka 2008) before going short.

Might work though - Bill Gross seems woried about his holdings, otherwise he wouldn't be pumping them on CNBC.

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 03:31 | Link to Comment BorisTheBlade
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Treasurless treasuries, sounds like combination of treachery and forgery.

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 17:09 | Link to Comment davood
davood's picture

Benjamin Shalom Bernanke is the Greatest Threat to the Dollar.

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 09:22 | Link to Comment Vendetta
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I thought he was just following the plan.

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 17:19 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

How do you make these toiletries when they're all binary?

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 19:57 | Link to Comment RafterManFMJ
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I wipe with the 0's as the 1's are just too sharp.

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 09:24 | Link to Comment Vendetta
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If you wipe with the  grain of the 1's instead of against the grain, the 1's aren't so bad.

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 17:46 | Link to Comment sethstorm
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Toiletries is the term for the RMB, not the USD.

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 23:37 | Link to Comment sitenine
sitenine's picture

FYI -paying attention is free.  So is the advice.

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 17:00 | Link to Comment FranSix
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For a moment there, I thought you might have said that America's government is deeply inbred.

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 17:02 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

In twenty or thrity years, I expect future monetary historians looking back on this period of history and say:

"Ikziled!"

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 17:14 | Link to Comment q99x2
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Forgot to mention the impact of computers and digital currency as regards reserve currency. The only value reserve currency status has is added value which is a cost to everyone. Reserve Currency is a trick played on sheeple. And so is a world currency. But a bitcoin type currency will transform the world to survivalble. Sooner or later either large populations or extremely small populations will utilize an open source form of currency.

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 17:27 | Link to Comment Ahmeexnal
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I'll stick to heavy metal open source currency.

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 18:41 | Link to Comment lasvegaspersona
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Ahme...

bet you NEVER once in the remainder of time ...exchange your PMs for anything other that fiat...

the PMs as currency is a place I hope we never get to...it would be dire...better to save in them and let the fiat of the moment be your currency...they are after all, ideal for those of us who borrow...they have a wonderful way of becoming easier to get over time...I personally love them...seriously

the saver in me however despises them...they are unreliable and have a way of shrinking when kept in a safe over long periods of time...

I'll cheer for fiat...as long as I have a choice to use fiat for daily payments and to borrow

I'll cheer for them as long as gold is available for saving...I have a gold coin that is nearly 200 years old and it still weighs what it did when it was minted...delightful eh?  

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 19:21 | Link to Comment Confused
Confused's picture

Bitcoin is being gamed as I write this. Make no mistake, guys on the street have noticed. If you think they aren't using resources to take advantage of it you are mistaken. 

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 17:16 | Link to Comment mjk0259
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Makes sense but I been hearing this story for 50 years. If you made that chart as % of GDP it would not look so dramatic. Admittedly GDP has a large component of financial engineering and military outlays that are actually negative but even so..

And who would have said 20 years ago that the US govt could borrow at negative real interest rates as much as it wanted with both a trade deficit and a budget deficit that were 10 times higher than the 'crisis' levels of 20 years ago.

 

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 19:14 | Link to Comment Rubbish
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40 yrs. ago I got my first part time job pumping gas, washing windows, checking oil and tire pressure at a chevron for $1.35 an hour. Today I fix stuff, pick up trash and clean crap for $60 an hour part time. What's the problem?

 

There is none, only the sheep pay in the end.....bhaaaaaah

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 17:18 | Link to Comment Franktastic
Franktastic's picture

History will remember this time as the "deep dark n dumb ages"

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 17:27 | Link to Comment falak pema
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the catacombs of the Squid womb and the derivatives bubbling cauldrons of the cave of  Morgan la Fée.

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 17:19 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

Ah china, a game of ping pong and they joined the club. Then they changed their grip on the ping pong bat and now they pull the plug on those who threw them the bread crumbs back in the 80s. What a turn around. 

 

Hemingway in a moveable feast said : a woman dies slowly and then all at once. He was drunk. And thought he was fighting a bull, like in a china shop. After he had broken the china he sobered up and said...i was going broke slowly, now its happened all of a sudden, as I have had to pay up for being a bull. 

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 19:17 | Link to Comment Zeilschip
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China has been around over 2,000 years, which '80s are you referring to?

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 04:39 | Link to Comment Arthur Borges
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The national animal symbol is the dragon; the oldest depiction of a dragon found so far is about 8,000 years old. Other startpoints are 5,000 and 3,000 years ago. Two thousand years ago sounds more like Christianity. Take your pick.

 

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 05:29 | Link to Comment falak pema
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when they joined the current NWO outsourcing experiment; the Walmart-Apple-Foxconn aliance. You know, the world we live in today. Are you still living in 1280 and Silk road of Kublai-Marco Polo days?

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 17:23 | Link to Comment A Lunatic
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We can, and will, print every nation on Earth into financial oblivion. Those who do not succumb to this tactic will be subdued militarily. The U.S. has no equal in the march toward one world government and total domination.

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 18:19 | Link to Comment AustriAnnie
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Hard to get the tanks rolling when you can't buy oil.

Reserve currency allows the military machine to keep going.

The military machine has in turn been used to secure access to oil, in a self-reinforcing circle that only continues until it doesn't.

Every other empire had the world's greatest military too.  On a short enough timeline, anyway.

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 18:53 | Link to Comment lasvegaspersona
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Annie ..nonsense...the USA will likely find its military halted when a dollar no longer buys a liter of gas....no, it will obey the rules of finance like all other countries...it is just enjoying the last few months of glory. Soon we Americans will understand the true meaning of 'exorbitant privilege'. De gaul was right....just way ahead of his time...we did what any country given the opportunity would do...we abused that privilege....This is why the world will NEVER tolerate China or any other country having the same opportunity, nope from here on out countries will be allowed to abuse their fiats at home but very soon they will be settling their accounts with other nations in something a tad more desirable than paper or electrons.

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 06:24 | Link to Comment Jendrzejczyk
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Hmmmm....No real 'Merican would say "liter of gas" or have any idea what de Gaulle said. ;)

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 19:48 | Link to Comment DosZap
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Hard to get the tanks rolling when you can't buy oil.

Reserve currency allows the military machine to keep going.

 One problem with this outlook,  YOU don't need ANY currency when you have at your fingertips ALL the OIL you will ever need at HOME.

ME Oil, BRIC oil??.

Who cares, we have all we need...............and way more. Just ration to the sheeple, and you will have enough for three World wars at once.( Problem is the incomings are a bitch).

MADD never went away, it just took a breather.

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 01:32 | Link to Comment BooMushroom
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So the question is then who will win the war in the USA over oil on federal lands? The right hawks or the left environazis? If SCOTUS is willing to stop water pumping for crops in the CA central valley, they may be willing to stop pumping of oil in Colorado. Especially if they have chalets in Aspen...

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 19:38 | Link to Comment DosZap
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 Those who do not succumb to this tactic will be subdued militarily.

Let's see how that works on China, and Russia....................

CHECKMATE

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 20:19 | Link to Comment A Lunatic
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If we screwed China hard enough with our intentionally reckless monetary policies we would bring them to their knees. 1.4 billion restless subjects can do a lot of internal damage while trying to get out from under the oppressive thumb of a government long past its prime. As for Russia, they are still trying to recuperate from years of failed economic, military and political policies which leave them holding nothing but the threat of nuclear holocaust which amounts to cutting off ones own nose to spite their face. The U.S. dollar is the modern day equivalent of smallpox infested blankets and we handed them out to everyone who had their greedy fucking hands out. The U.S. will attempt to reap what it has so patiently sown.

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 22:30 | Link to Comment thefedisscam
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"Bring China to their knees"?? LOL. You drink TOO MUCH Koolit.

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 05:22 | Link to Comment Arthur Borges
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You might be right. On the other hand, the figures from the PEW Global Attitudes Survey are worth consulting: 87% of Chinese feel their country "is going in the right direction", against 30% of Americans, who are just 2% happier than Egyptians. That is actually a very good indicator of social and political stability.

Then too, the Chinese and US economies currently seem so interdependent that it is hard to see how one can go to its knees without dragging along the other down beside it.

Then you say the Government of China is past its prime. Um, so far, what I see is communists running a capitalist economy better than capitalists and capitalists unable to quite get their heads around that.

What seems past its prime is the global financial system.

 

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 19:48 | Link to Comment spinone
spinone's picture

You may be suprised

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 20:00 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

You may be suprised

As  may you my friend, Russia has always had a BAD habit of lying, even better than we do.

When you still  have 3000+ ICBM's, its gonna be a bitch hitting them all,even if you did, the world is fried.

Plus, we have ZERO clue(maybe a wild ass guess) as to the numbers of Nuke subs they have developed, and like us sit 10-12 miles off each of our coasts 24/7/365.

Capable of launch to strike in less than 240 secs.

Plus, lest we forget, China now(and again thanks to Clinton), ans untold numbers of ICBM's capable of hitting your backyard.

Since we(HE) GAVE them Cray Super Computers technology, to be used against the giver perhaps one day.

Until then they MIGHT have been able to get a few on the West coast, but with Zero accuracy.

Plus, we again have even LESS a clue the numbers they have ready set go.

 Plus, with 1.2+ Billion people, we run out of soldiers WAY before they do.......................add the nukes, its damn sure Game On.

 

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 05:58 | Link to Comment Arthur Borges
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Actually, even without access to classified materials, you can get a pretty sober picture of who has what. In your case, the data at the Federation of American Scientists might help you sleep more easily.

If you set aside Russia and the USA, and look at the relatively sane nuclear powers (everybody else), you'll see their arsenals stand at around 150 to 400 nuclear warheads apiece because, if your purpose is defensive, you only need to be sure of putting through to target a few dozen and causing unacceptable damage.

The two approaches are countertarget and countervalue. You advocate the ridiculously expensive countertarget approach where you take out the adversary's entire nuclear arsenal. The cheaper approach is to threaten population centers in a countervalue approach. The thought of losing all your major cities has so far been enough to make the USA need to stick to diplomacy and proxy wars.

If this still doesn't reassure you, you can always move to the Southern Hemisphere: most nuclear power plants, missiles and their targets are located in the  Northern Hemisphere and the planet's winds winds largely circulate in closed systems so that northern air stays north and southern air, south. Therefore atmospheric radiation levels will always be lower there. I recommend Argentina and Chile.

 

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 12:37 | Link to Comment DanDaley
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Then there's always the great blind spot -the EMP; even better than a neutron bomb.

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 12:54 | Link to Comment SIOP
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There are some caves along the pacific coast of Chile that are concidered the safest place to be. :) 

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 20:00 | Link to Comment RafterManFMJ
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Hard to get the tanks rolling when you can't buy oil.

Reserve currency allows the military machine to keep going.

The military machine has in turn been used to secure access to oil, in a self-reinforcing circle that only continues until it doesn't.

Every other empire had the world's greatest military too.  On a short enough timeline, anyway.

 

 

Ha ha! You fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders - The most famous of which is "never get involved in a land war in Asia"

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 21:17 | Link to Comment longdong silver
longdong silver's picture

Agreed

 

and the dollar is "to big to fail" ha sarc

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 17:43 | Link to Comment skepticCarl
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Mr. Aziz's article is all over the map: first a review of the decline of the U.S. economy post 1971, then a discussion of the rising importance of China and other developing countries taking the mantle of reserve currency from the U.S., and finally some data that indicate a hard landing for the Chinese economy dead ahead.  He calls this "chaos", and somehow, it hurts the $US.  Seems just the opposite, given the first 2/3 of the article.

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 18:14 | Link to Comment AustriAnnie
AustriAnnie's picture

Not so sure.  After all, the U.S. empire grew out of a series of "responses" to chaotic events.  Each threat of chaos provided rationale for another power-grab (starting wars, forming strategic global alliances, taking us off the gold standard, etc.)

China has in the past stepped up nationalist rhetoric when the peasants get restless.  I think that is one of Aziz's major points here.  And if they had been planning for a slow shift away from the dollar, their desperation may prompt them to quicken the pace.  Is it possible that the currency reserve status is the only thing that can save them, and they know it?  Some deflation, a sudden announcement of gold-backed currency, and more non-dollar trade agreements, which would strengthen their currency, in effect soaking up stimulus inflationary pressures as they start printing?  Its quite possible that the slowdown is exactly what they need.  They know that the country with the reserve currency gets to export their inflation.

Propaganda opportunities exist also, by telling their people they are entering a "new era" where evil America will no longer dominate their trade agreements, etc etc.  The launch of gold-backing as part of this new system might keep the peasants from grabbing their pitchforks and revolting.

Question is, can they pull it off?

 

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 19:49 | Link to Comment spinone
spinone's picture

In 20 years, yes

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 06:32 | Link to Comment Arthur Borges
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The rural population is indeed the key. Historically, they are ultimately what brings down the dynasties here.

And Westerners underestimate its support for the Party. True, there was the Great Leap Forward and more, but Mao Zedong is still largely venerated there, if only because he put an end to millennia of sharecropper debt to landlords. To that you can add restoration of the country's ethnic dignity and pride in itself.

The Party knows this and the tension is between focus on developing the industrial/post-industrial economy and increasing rural living standards.

It does indeed seem, AustriAnnie, that Party and Government want the slowdown.

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 12:31 | Link to Comment DanDaley
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Rickards in his Currency Wars says that the Pentagon actually war-gamed a very similar scenario (China and Russia establishing a gold backed currency) -and many in the military/government just didn't want to see it as realistic; can't happen because we don't want it to happen.

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 17:49 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

 

 

The only threat to the US dollar, universal petrodollar status. If the US dollar collapse’s, fiat recoinage will prevail and the [middleman] will be holding all prior debt obligations.  

This cataclysmic event is better known as {RLCBBHSD};  riches to rags lifestyle currency broker bag holder syndrome disease. 

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 17:57 | Link to Comment SPAREPARTS
SPAREPARTS's picture

Romney tarrif idea, say 25% on all chinese goods, would be like devalueing dollar by similar amount aganist Yuan, couldnt the US just devalue dollar by that amount globally,americans share will be paid by their life changes , decisions, the big squeeze, you cant have everything attitude

 

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 19:56 | Link to Comment Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Tarrifs are the only way to balance out the "free trade" we have with China. Tarrifs have been utilized for centuries and need to be instituted with countries who will not play fair. I'm all for it. In fact you could make a strong case that since all the free trade agreements the US has instituted the real loser has been the American middle class in the form of jobs being sucked overseas just as H. Ross Perot surmized.

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 06:42 | Link to Comment Vlad Tepid
Vlad Tepid's picture

Tell you what.  You learn to spell "tariffs" correctly, then come back and restate your thesis.  I'll be ready to discuss when you know enough about your main topic to spell it right.

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 06:45 | Link to Comment Arthur Borges
Arthur Borges's picture

So why did the US enter into those FTAs?

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 06:45 | Link to Comment Arthur Borges
Arthur Borges's picture

So why did the US enter into those FTAs?

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 06:45 | Link to Comment Arthur Borges
Arthur Borges's picture

So why did the US enter into those FTAs?

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 18:15 | Link to Comment besnook
besnook's picture

it really is simple. throughout history the most indebted just past peak empire gave way to the biggest creditor fast growth nation.

 

talk about a hard landing in china til the cows come home. it may be the catalyst for the turnover. it doesn't matter. now or later, they are the next in line to inherit the world which is why japan has hitched it's wagon to them.

greater asia prosperity circle. bitchez.

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 09:26 | Link to Comment onebir
onebir's picture

That was (almost) all under hard-currency systems. Not clear if it holds in a fiat where the indebted nation remains prime military hegemon & printer of the reserve currency. Perhaps this will buy it time to recover. (Or perhaps it's had its extra time...)

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 18:36 | Link to Comment Venerability
Venerability's picture

I posted this at Seeking Alpha:

Did you happen to see the Screechers - such Ranting and Raving, I had to turn the Volume down to the lowest possible level - about China on the Little Larry show Friday night? Little Larry himself wasn't there, and Michelle C-C, who is very smart despite being so biased, was forced into the role of Voice of Reason against her own unruly panel.

Remember, we had a similar situation on the Currency Show last week, with a substitute host who is so crazy, HIS own panel almost jumped up from their seats to throttle him.

I hope - and in fact, expect - that world leaders and more responsible market makers around the globe, especially in China, are watching these little productions very avidly and taking steps behind the scenes to thwart the ambitions - if one can call them ambitions - of the Sociopathic Nihilists who think it would be absolutely zingy to try to cause a Great Depression Worse Than the Last One, in order to extend the American-UK Empire.

MCC's panel was so insane, I fully expected them to verge into Malthusian territory any moment.

MCC: So tell us, Scott (I don't think there was a real Scott there, this is a composite), what would you do about all the Indian and Chinese and perhaps European people plunged into abject poverty by another decade like the 1930s?

Scott: Well, Michelle, there's a real silver lining in this. Human flesh is an excellent source of protein. All we have to do is designate certain marginal populations as expendable, package them, and sell them to semi-marginal populations as a delicious alternative to pork or beef.

I understand the Koch Brothers, among others, have already set up "compassionate abattoirs" to handle this entirely new manufacturing sector, in which the US will likely take the lead.

There are even hints Morgan Stanley will be lead underwriter for the first IPO in this space, to be called Human Protein Quick and Quietly, or stock symbol HPQQ.

 

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 18:51 | Link to Comment williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

The dollar is doing fine, living the fast life in Monte Carlo and the South of France with his buddy Jon Corzine.

He will die hiding from his creditors.

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 19:03 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

RE: He will die hiding from his creditors

 

When his creditors ask for another US taxpayer bailout, do you think they may join others in the dirt nap of Ponzi refinancing?

 

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 19:00 | Link to Comment world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

fickle foreigners

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 19:38 | Link to Comment Pumpkin
Pumpkin's picture

The Federal Reserve is the only threat to the dollar.  Hell, they alread devalued it by 97+%!!

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 19:59 | Link to Comment thesecondslowes...
thesecondslowestantelope's picture

Only fly in this guys oinment is that exports to the west account for 45% of chinese gdp....tariffs, trade war, are a big short term boost to the US and a disaster short term for china.....how is that stoking domestic demand strategy working?  Not

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 07:29 | Link to Comment Arthur Borges
Arthur Borges's picture

Yep, a lot of domestic demand is government-driven.

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 20:06 | Link to Comment poor fella
poor fella's picture

Reminds me of Bowles' comment about U.S. foreign policy,

"The U.S. has a treaty with Taiwan that we'll protect them if they're invaded by the Chinese. There's only one problem with that: We'll have to borrow the money from China to do it."

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 20:58 | Link to Comment Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

If all you have is a printing press, everything looks like a threat.

(Apologies to B. Baruch, who also said, "I made my money be selling too soon.")

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 21:30 | Link to Comment Jake88
Jake88's picture

wwiii will save the dollar

Sat, 05/26/2012 - 23:22 | Link to Comment guinea
guinea's picture

Also latest news is that Foxconn in China is going to double the wages of its factory workers to 4400 yuan a month (about $700).  This may seem like a pittance to us in the US, but it's actually higher than what most college grads in China make 10 years after graduation (and only 8% of Chinese go to college).  This will be a highly disruptive move for Chinese manufacturing.  Foxconn can probably handle it, but many of the domestic sweatshops that operate on 0.1% margins are not going to survive if labor costs double.  The Chinese real estate bubble is going to make China increasingly less competitive.

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?we_cat=2&art_id=122795&sid...

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 06:48 | Link to Comment Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Wow that is crazy!
Sometimes I wonder if Foxconn has a plan, or is it a series of random moves.

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 00:13 | Link to Comment RagnarDanneskjold
RagnarDanneskjold's picture

The Death of the Dollar has been greatly exaggerated. We may be closer to the end of the dollar as reserve currency than the beginning, but it's a long game. When China talks about having a reserve currency, what the officials mean is that the yuan will be held by foreign central banks as an asset, the way dollars, euros and yen are held today. China does not want to replace the U.S. dollar as reserve currency because of the economic pain it entails. The main goal of "hostile" foreign powers is to end the military/political advantage enjoyed by the U.S. through control of the reserve currency.

Ben Bernanke is playing double-A ball next to the pros at the PBOC. When the housing bubble in China cracked in 2008, they just gunned the presses and jammed liquidity into the banking system and into the hands of state run companies. Chinese banks are entwined in property and commodity speculation, with much of their outstanding loans in speculative investments. In other words, their banking system is insolvent if there's ever a recession in China.

While the U.S. exists within a Keynesian framework, China has a Keynesian machine. American economists use models to represent the economy, Chinese politicians built a Keynes machine. Need to up G or I or C or (X-M), just pull a policy level and it happens. Now that the Chinese economy is slowing and demand, yes demand for loans fell sharply in May, China faces the prospect of another round of deflation. What's their most likely response? Take another 2008 on the chin, or follow 2008 and print like mad? The only problem this time is that the PBOC is starting to lose control of the yuan as the market is trying to force a depreciation. If they print big again, China faces the prospect of exchange rate driven inflation. 

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 01:01 | Link to Comment silverdragon
silverdragon's picture

"China’s biggest banks may fall short of loan targets for the first time in at least seven years as an economic slowdown crimps demand for credit, three bank officials with knowledge of the matter said. A decline in lending in April and May means it’s likely the banks’ total new loans for 2012 will be about 7 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion), less than an estimated government goal of 8 trillion yuan to 8.5 trillion yuan, said one of the officials, declining to be identified because the person isn’t authorized to speak publicly. Banks are relying on small and mid-sized companies for loan growth after demand from the biggest state- owned borrowers dropped, the people said. The drying up of loan demand attests to the severity of China’s slowdown and may add pressure on Premier Wen Jiabao to cut interest rates and expand stimulus measures. The economy may grow in 2012 at its slowest pace in 13 years, a Bloomberg News survey showed last week, as Europe’s debt crisis curbs exports, manufacturing shrinks and demand for new homes wanes."

WHAT A PILE OF CRAP!

Beijing isn't letting the banks loan to small and medium sized enterprises, we are all growing at fantastic rates of growing with cashflow and by emptying our personal bank accounts.  No one has any debt because the banks wont loan to anyone.

Why would you comment on China if you are unaware about the basics?

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 06:35 | Link to Comment Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

STFU, silverdragon.
- GoldenDragon
P.S. And read comment 2466676, maybe you will learn something

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 07:41 | Link to Comment Arthur Borges
Arthur Borges's picture

You're half right but only half so because folks here much prefer to borrow from each other. You not only save on fees & interest but interpersonal lending is also seen as an excellent way to consolidate bonding between friends and that goes back a very long way: China has a long history of natural & manmade disasters written into the DNA here and everybody knows that when the schlitz hits the fan, your personal survival depends largely on who will go to the wall for you. The answer is friends and family. The word "friend" here is not used lightly at all.

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 12:53 | Link to Comment guinea
guinea's picture

Why do you intentionally spread propaganda?  Everyone knows China has a huge shadow banking system.  There are factory owners who disappear and hide like fugitives because they can't pay off the loan sharks.

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 01:12 | Link to Comment LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

....delete

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 01:20 | Link to Comment deflator
deflator's picture

My view is that we are approaching the end of U.S. dollar hegemony and the U.S. is forcing the rest of the world to end it kicking and screaming. It is a very difficult thing to end a currency hegemony without a bloody war.  It is also difficult to unwind trillions of dollars in debt but a crash in Europe and Asia makes that an irrelevant arguement.  

 The pie isn't getting bigger but there are more people lying claims to the pieces. I think U.S. policy makers think they can crash China any time they want and put the genie back in the bottle. Crash or no crash Asia is not going away, the genie is not going back in the bottle. This thing is coming to a head sooner rather than later. Europe, Asia and many other countries are being forced to find a solution to their problem of the U.S. laying claims on their shrinking slices of the pie simply because the pie is sliced with dollars.

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 01:25 | Link to Comment silverdragon
silverdragon's picture

"As the Chinese (and wider Asian) economic picture becomes bleaker"

ANOTHER PILE OF CRAP.

Have you seen growth rates in Asia?

Are you retarded?

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 07:38 | Link to Comment Cosimo de Medici
Cosimo de Medici's picture

Did you see the growth rate in the US in 2005?  How about during the Reagan years?  GDP fueled with debt that cannot be repaid in order to create assets nobody can afford is not a recipe for sustainable growth.

The Chinese have not re-invented the wheel.  Their so-called “economic miracle” was to buy off the shelf---or more often than not steal---the genius of people sprinkled in a host of lands among whom China is conspicuous by its absence.  They have racked up high debt---especially regionals---and long term debt to build assets of poor quality with a lifespan considerably less than the debt supporting them.  Is this country with a 5000 Year Glorious History ©, and 1.35 billion people, even capable of doing what Elan Musk’s group accomplished this week?  Seems they’ve more catch up to do.

Along their path they have---in addition to building up excessive debt, turbocharging M2 growth to such an extent it would make Bernanke jealous, and doing almost inconceivable damage to the environment---alienated neighboring countries and experienced the re-emergence of the very thing that kept China down for a thousand years:  warlord infighting.

Japan is smiling, but they trust China less than China trusts Japan.  All they are doing is keeping the enemy close.  All those reneged hedges and resource purchase contracts do not go unnoticed.

What is the real China?  Is it the land of Foxconn or is it the land of ballooning debt, poorly cured concrete, melamine baby formula, and palace intrigue that saps the whole of society’s energy?  Sure they'll get a boost to GDP when they auction off Gu Kailai's (Bo Xilai's wife) organs, but that is hardly enough.

Does your local wife shut you off if you don't parrot Party talking points?  Is China your first foreign experience, and do all English teachers in the Middle Kingdom talk like you?

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 01:34 | Link to Comment silverdragon
silverdragon's picture

Mr Aziz,

Stop writing articles while stoned.

 

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 01:45 | Link to Comment deflator
deflator's picture

"The HSBC Flash Purchasing Managers Index, the earliest indicator of China's industrial sector, retreated to 48.7 in May from a final reading of 49.3 in April. It marked the seventh straight month that the index has been below 50, indicating contracting economic activity."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/24/us-china-economy-pmi-idUSBRE84N08B20120524

 Marc Faber say's, “As an observer of markets – whenever everyone focuses on one thing – like Greece and Europe – maybe they miss issues that are far more important – such as a meaningful slowdown in India and China

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47566735

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 04:01 | Link to Comment silverdragon
silverdragon's picture

The Chinese govt. has done everything in its power to soft land their property market and it is working. Anytime they want they can allow people to buy a second property at 20% down and the property market goes off on a tear again.

There is so much cash in China and such a cultural demand for property that it will ride out the previous over expansion.

The Chinese property market can not crash as Chinese don't sell property. It will have its ups and downs due to supply and demand but it will not crash.

What many is the west miss as a result of being, exposed to western "media" is that China is intentionally slowing its economy down.

It has its foot on the break.

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 09:19 | Link to Comment onebir
onebir's picture

" Anytime they want they can allow people to buy a second property at 20% down and the property market goes off on a tear again."

They can. And they can relax reserve requirements etc.

But if property prices are falling as they have been, will people buy? Cultural demand or no, why buy into a falling market, particularly when you're probably heavily exposed to it (unless banks miraculously start throwing money at the less credit-worthy)...

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 04:47 | Link to Comment silverdragon
silverdragon's picture

Ya gotta assume that major powers put suitcase nukes in each others major cities. Just in case.

 

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 09:15 | Link to Comment onebir
onebir's picture

"They have no reason to crash the value of their own assets. Their planned endgame appears to be a slow, phased and managed transition to a new global reserve currency.

...

And unable to match America militarily, their major outlet would be economic warfare — competitive devaluation, threats, tariffs, export controls, and an *all-out assault on the dollar reserve standard*."

There seems to be an inconsistency between these two statements.

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 09:57 | Link to Comment hootowl
hootowl's picture

No inconsistancy......plan B (aggressive economic warfare) would be initiated after the failure of Plan A (slow, managed transition).

Plan A will be hindered by their domestic turmoil, which is currently being suppressed in the government media by phony PROC government economic reports; much like the Obamanomic lies being promulgated by the Ovomit regime to deceive the Americans.

I have friends living and working there.....all is not well!

Hootowl

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 12:15 | Link to Comment Canuck-doomer
Canuck-doomer's picture

I'm not so sure if China will come out on top. Too many mouths to feed and too many looters in the streets. Its going to be  a hard fall for everyone. Its anyones game at this point.

Oh and BTW, PMs all the way. Gold, silver, lead and brass.

Mon, 05/28/2012 - 10:15 | Link to Comment Bogdog
Bogdog's picture

Don't you mean tribbles?

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