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Guest Post: A Glimpse Into The Future Of The Stock Market And Dollar
Submitted by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds
A Glimpse Into The Future Of The Stock Market And Dollar
The "accident" many have been waiting for has finally happened, and it's called Europe. That doesn't bode well for the U.S. stock market.
A lot of technical analysts and financial pundits are expecting a standard-issue Santa Claus Rally once a "solution" to Europe's debt crisis magically appears. There will be no such magical solution for the simple reason the problems are intrinsic to the euro, the Eurozone's immense debts and the structure of the E.U. itself.
We can fruitfully start a speculative look into the future of the U.S. stock market and dollar with a quote from John Mauldin's book Endgame: The End of the Debt Supercycle and How It Changes Everything:
Economic theory tells us that it is precisely the fickle nature of confidence, including its dependence on the public’s expectation of future events, which makes it so difficult to predict the timing of debt crises. High debt levels lead, in many mathematical economics models, to “multiple equilibria” in which the debt level might be sustained —or might not be.
Economists do not have a terribly good idea of what kinds of events shift confidence and of how to concretely assess confidence vulnerability. What one does see, again and again, in the history of financial crises is that when an accident is waiting to happen, it eventually does. When countries become too deeply indebted, they are headed for trouble. When debt-fueled asset price explosions seem too good to be true, they probably are. But the exact timing can be very difficult to guess, and a crisis that seems imminent can sometimes take years to ignite.
The accident has finally happened, and it's called the euro/European debt crisis. I see a lot of analysts trying to torture a Bullish interpretation out of the charts, so let's take a "nothing fancy" chart of the broad-based S&P 500 with five basic TA tools: Bollinger Bands to measure volatility, relative strength (RSI), MACD (moving average convergence-divergence), stochastics and volume.
If we use Technical Analysis 101 (basic version), a number of things quickly pop out of this chart--and none of them are remotely bullish.
1. This market is not even close to being oversold. Bulls are hoping that the selloff has created an extreme of negative sentiment, which would be a reliable indicator that the market is about to rally. But there is no evidence of such an extreme, and the VIX/VXO (not shown) is also not at an extreme.
Rather than an extreme of negative sentiment, we see complacency, and a long way down to reach extremes in RSI and stochastics.
2. The 200-week moving average (MA) has offered picture-perfect resistance and support. The entire August-September period of wild swings of volatility can be seen here as a struggle around the 200-week MA.
In a classic retracement, the SPX shot up and recovered the 50-week MA, but failed to hold that level. Now it is heading back down for another retest of the 200-week MA. Only this time the chart is significantly weaker than in September, and the low-volume "oversold/hopium" rally in October was technically underwhelming.
3. Another clue that supports the notion that the 200-week MA will fail to hold this next text is the beautiful (to technicians) complex head-and-shoulders pattern which is made up of a shallow HS triple top formed from March to August of this year, and a second outer left shoulder formed in November of 2010.
The corresponding right shoulder was traced by the October rally that just rolled over. This completes a long-term head and shoulders topping pattern.
4. The MACD is extremely negative, being well below the neutral line and rolling over into a bearish cross. Coincidentally, the stochastics also rolled over in a bearish cross.
5. Price tends to alternate between the Bollinger bands; rallies will rise to the upper band and push it higher, while declines will fall to the lower band and ride it down. Thus the lower band is a reasonable initial target for this decline. The problem for Bulls is that this target is well below the 200-week MA, meaning that hitting the lower band will mean the 200-week MA will be decisively broken.
If price does fall to the lower band, we can anticipate an oversold rally back up to the 200-week MA, followed by a renewed plunge to new lows.
An insightful technical analyst who prefers to be known only as "Chartist Friend from Pittsburgh" shared two very long-term charts of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the U.S. dollar. As I have noted here many times, the current era has seen the DJIA and the dollar on a see-saw, meaning a falling dollar has corresponded to a rising stock market, and voce versa.
These charts are remarkably self-explanatory:
The implications of this chart are not exactly Bullish, as it targets a long-term bottom between 1,000 and 600.
Turning to the U.S. dollar, our Chartist Friend observed, The monster decade long head & shoulders on the DJIA is well documented, but I have yet to see anyone other than myself make a connection between the DXY mid-90's bottom and the bottom that it is forming today."
Our Chartist Friend from Pittsburgh has noted how a classic 5-point pattern may be repeating, which targets the 86-88 level in the DXY near-term. Longer term, this chart suggests a rally of much greater duration and vigor than most analysts dare extrapolate in the current dollar-Bearish climate.
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Are you using the same settings? How many days for RSI? Sto and MACD? Is his chart weekly or daily? The 200-day MA is breaking down and is probably a better indicator to use than RSI,STO and MACD.
What is the average currency devaluation in a crisis? 50%? Thinking of the yen here.
and yet Bernanke and the morons in DC will still say that no one saw it coming ...........
The whole system is ridiculous. It needs to come crashing down - HARD. We need honesty and integrity to return - but it will take force to bring them back.
Join the Revolution:
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Gun-Owners-for-a-Gold-Standard/180803025347901
Chronic condition but not the end of the world.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cyesaMW81wo&feature=related
Anyone caught cold next week will suffer great loses!
The message is simple. You cannot live on borrowed money forever. Unfortunately, Keynesian economics (or at least the most widely accepted interpretation of it) teaches that nations can. And so, our economic theoreticians are finally meeting reality. Neither people nor governments can borrow ad infinitum. Thus, growth cannot be ad infinitum. In other words, both people and their respective governments must live within their means on both a personal and national level. You don't need complex economic analysis to know that. It is simply a natural law. And nature will take its due course. Greed has had its time in the sun and will now succomb to death by its own hand.
Sorry, but I think it's a lot of Hogwash. Comparing the Dow now, and the companies in it, with the Dow so long ago is worthless. It's like a chart of the time it takes
to get from NYC to Chicago. In 1895, maybe 5 days on a fast horse? Over the years the speed increased to what, maybe 90 minutes. A reversion to the mean
suggests that at some point it will go back to taking a day or two. Also, the chart is nominal gains, not real, which is obviously significant. Just in case though, I think I'll
keep a little cash in case we get to a market selling at one times earnings.
I normally like CHS but I don't care for this silly technical analysis, looking at head and shoulders etc. Head and shoulders is just a shorter period smaller amplitude sinewave added to a longer period bigger amplitude sinewave. Most chartists don't know that and just accept the chart pattern as "something that works." Trendlines are also less reliable than support and resistance areas, but again, they seem to "work". This way of applying technical analysis is like astrology, which to its practicioners "works". Keynesians think throwing money at something "creates confidence". Psychiatrists throw all kinds of poisonous compounds at their hostage patients because they seem to "work", even though they shorten the patient's lifespan by 10 years. This kind of sloppy non-scientific thinking leads to sloppy, non-scientific results. If it "works" (highly debatable), it must be true. Imagine staking your whole financial future on such a flimsy construct--many people do. Most technical analysis people don't even know the difference between "stochastic" in the probability sense and the "stochastic" indicator. Nor do they know that RSI is just a way of taking a derivative. Most technical indicators are just milking the price series and don't do much more than show what you can easily see by looking at the prices themselves. There was a study a while back that suggested that only the MACD and the ADX have any real possible validity as indicators.
There's got to be a better way. I'm more impressed by people who use ratios, eg, Gold:CCI, Gold:Silver as a measure of liquidity, etc.
Excellent article. Looks like we are in Jun/Jul 2008 equivalent now. We are either just before the major crash, or there will be one minor bump up (around 50 points) before the trap door opens.
I still remember the mood in 2007/2008 and the current train wreck is much more serious than in 2008. We need to reset all our markets: stock, credit, real estate...except pumping $trillions in order to bail out the super rich or morons.
This was predictable as of 2009, when the G20 in London did nothing to stop the continuing bubble from regrowing in Europe. Nothing was done except can kicking in USA, head in the sand QE play, and WS levitation in desperation, as Euro sovereign mad plays bloated to rewin lost ground by adding sovereign bets to existing mega derivative and RE bet pile. They, the Euro banks, thought that nobody attacks sovereign debt, by definition as ECB backed, with unlimited firepower. But Euro construct is paper tiger. They also forgot the US vultures were so hungry, mad from hubris and panic rage, they would eat their own mothers. They have.
Actually Trichet raised rates and was summarily kicked out of the CB club for being contrary the "save the criminals" agreement.
Fuck ZIRP; lets move to -3% Fed rate and see what happens.
I'd borrow gazillions. I'd even pay -1.0%
FP, Very good point... but then it would validate BB's "attacks" this side of the ocean (so he is not "paper tiger"?).
The hungry vultures are hardly representing market sentiments (of the eh, normal people) so are you then in effect saying,
the charts are not valid? Or, at the very least, they are showing bottoms generated by vulture sentiments?
Hummmmmmmmm.
I'd rather hear the people who actually have the euro as their currency bashing it, instead of all of this anglo-saxon euro bashing. Yet about the only thing the euro users say is that it raised prices on everything when it was introduced. Obviously at the abysmally low level of $1.32, the euro is doomed.
I also suffer from cognitive dissonance hearing Americans criticize the Europeans for mismanaging their economy. If you go to the northern European countries, you quickly realize that most Europeans don't use credit cards and never had a subprime crisis based on liar loans. All the economic problems come from the banks in Europe. You can't blame their so-called socialistic healthcare systems, which allow a woman to have a baby in a hospital rather than just squatting on the floor the way they do in America. European corporate executives are generally paid far less than our American superstar CEO's who require a minimum of one-tenth the GDP of whatever state they are headquartered in to retain their loyalty to the firm.
Appreciate your thoughtful perspective on Europe, you are on target.
In Western Europe people do indeed do some mild moaning the euro is inflationary, and are not especially attached to it, but we have shorter time horizons on currency. Over the past century currencies have changed a number of times in many places in Europe, and one more possible change does not unsettle us.
Considering the euro used to be less than a US dollar (it was created electronically in the late 90s before being actually issued), it is actually still quite strong, stronger than when I dumped the last dollars I had some years ago.
Here we also energetically chat about what will happen with the euro, and how the EU officials have been fairly bumbling so far, but a common instinct is to think that when pressured to the nth degree, the eurocrats will finally do whatever is necessary and not simply dawdle their way into 'euro collapse'. We will have the combination of printing money, restructuring the banks with some defaults, even if needed splitting the eurozone in two or something else a little radical.
You are right, the centre problem here is the balance sheets of European banks, mega-levered up. That, I think, is the focus of the highest level EU and ECB discussions that are being held discreetly right now.
Quite true much of Europe did not have a real estate bubble. In Belgium transaction costs are high, flipping in the short term is not profitable; so there was no big rise in prices, and no big fall in prices now. And yes many of us Continental Europeans don't use credit cards except for travel and online purchases, we tend to have much more savings than Americans. And there is a lot of gold and silver privately held here, untracked by anyone, we just don't say much about it. Also other kinds of quiet assets, such as old art and vintage cars.
And as you suggest, there is much less of a gulf between rich and working people here. In Belgium and in a number of other northern and Western Continental countries, aside from immigrants 'without papers', there are essentially no 'poor' as you know them in America. Belgium is a place where ultra-wealthy people stop and pump petrol into their own Ferraris, get a bag of crisps and some beer at the petrol station shop, and no one bothers them.
Our societies have a social balance and a sense of sharing in whatever happens, that is our great strength for this hour of 'desperate' euro-crisis.
We indeed have good European healthcare systems, and America shocks us on this issue like on many others (death penalty, mass imprisonment, torture ...). Our health care arrangements work, everyone is covered, it is no great expense or headache. Every EU country is a little different. In Belgium doctors are private, but health insurance is mandatory from one of a few insurers, it costs very little, and minimum wage or unemployed people have it covered. You actually live a nice life in Belgium even on our (high) minimum wage, you have healthcare, few worries. Little crime, almost no one in jail, little hassle from lawyers or bureaucrats for most people. Food affordable and very high quality. The humblest citizens are sitting in cafés now talking about the 'crisis', sipping a glass in comfort.
Local hit song, « It's Great to Be a Belgian » -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTqknJDZrlI
Many Amarkins have been to Yurp, but in general, they are protected from tersts and socialistic communism by the wide ocean, happily for the Amarkin authorities.
Here's a thought that is anathema to Amarkins: "You actually live a nice life in Belgium even on our (high) minimum wage, you have healthcare, few worries. Little crime, almost no one in jail, little hassle from lawyers or bureaucrats for most people. Food affordable and very high quality."
Die,Yurpians, Die! See Robotrader's post below about the happy subjects in LA.
Yeah but can you get any good weed over there?
The vertical axis on the 116 year-old Dow chart is non-linear in the extreme. It is further denominated by a dollar that has varied in value between 1/20th an ounce of gold, and 1/1900th an ounce of gold. So, tell me again what this chart means? Why not make the horizontal axis non-linear as well, to account for temporal compression caused by UFO's?
ur on to something
What's your point? Sure the data is so flawed it's utterly useless, the charts represent nothing real, and our analytical methodology provides no actionable insight.
But they're all we have to work with.
http://goldprice.org/dow-gold.html#80_year_gold_price
80 year Dow priced in gold. No technicals
EDIT. found a better chart
http://gold.approximity.com/since1885/DJIA-Gold-Ratio.html
Back to 1885
Now sitting at about six ounces of gold to one Dow jones
is it a coincidence that nato,us launch cross border raid as prime minister is embroiled in a memo scandel that just saw the ambassador to the us resign over an alleged request for coup assistance? Then a few days ago pakistan says it is taking us to the un over drone strikes. Wa la a cross border raid by nato.
in backdrop the k for forces in kosovo came under attack again. Recall last week there was a proposition to apply for russian passports by the kosovo serbs.
To be or not to be, that is the gsrnmblotz.
I still believe that this is all a head fake. They have to print or at least the BIS will force the FED to give a few trillion under the table. The NWO is so close; they can almost taste it. I don't see the monsters giving up this easily; first enslavement of the Euro (moving really well with Italy, Greece and Ireland, and soon Spain and Portugal), and then to a US state near you.
Enslavement of Europeans at that level, as long-term debt-serfs, won't work here. Revolutionary sentiment is building in Italy, Greece and the other countries which have had 'austerity' imposed upon them. The people of the GIIPS countries have not permanently submitted to the programmes. The GIIPS citizens are not yet as feisty as the Icelanders, but they can get there mighty fast, torches in hand.
People in Europe hit the streets easily, and mentally are in the mood to burn a lot of things down rather than be debt-slaves.
The EU officials have been out of touch with popular sentiment, but they are starting to get the picture. They're already half-admitting the 'austerity' programmes have backfired ... and they are beginning to see that it is not sustainable to have people in various countries getting 'managed' by outsiders from within or outside the EU.
You are right that that they may well print a couple of trillion ... trying to kick the can down the road till springtime.
As we know, the same CRIMINALS, that brought this market to these levels, will probably pull another trick out of their sleeve...
RUNNING OUT OF TRICKS...
MY MAIN MAN
This kind of longterm comparison has to be inflation-adjusted to make any sense. If the Dow declines to 7000 and Gold rises to $7000 US/oz., it would still fulfill bear market expectations:
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Real-Mega-Bears.php
Great charts, F6. Interestingly, the chart that makes the Bernanke look like he is helping matters is the "nominal" chart. In the "real" charts, it is clear that he learned nothing from his study of the great depression. Do you suppose he might not have thought of factoring in inflation in his scholarly studies of the GD? I bet that's what happened, he forgot about inflation and therefore drew all the wrong conclusions. Now, we, the debt serfs, get to be sacrificed on the altar as a burnt offering to the Keynesian/Friedmann gods. Oh, how I wish the Bernank had used inflation adjusted charts!
Paying off debt or defaulting has the same result-- zeros disappear. The only thing to kick the can is more debt- but-nobody is signing up to play-- seems simple to me- deflation is in the wind. Dollar buys more stuff including equities.
...Bullish Bollinger Bands...Bitchez,better buy Booze,Bud....Oh and Gold...
and oil.
Nice to see that on both sides of the ocean, everybody expects monday to be brutal...
I expected a green day because of the prolongued bloodbath these last 2 weeks.
We'll see
SD - the market will always do the unexpected, so you may be right here. However, I wouldn't bet too much on it. The whole slide down here in USA happened on quite low volume and on low VIX (which hasn't changed much). There was no capitulation - just a slow train wreck.
At one point of time, the margin calls will be triggered. I am surprised it hasn't happened already. We are down around 10% from the nearest top in a matter of two weeks. Why it is so quiet, and no liquidations due to margin calls?
LOL. Dollar bulls. Just because it has a chart, and the chart has gone down, doesn't mean it is ever going back up. Adjusted for money creation, that is already a massive dollar valuation bubble.
It may seems odd to be a dollar bull but consider every other currency that is in such sour shape that the dollar is far more dependable. If you buy or own Treasuries you will buy them with dollars and clearly this is because of fear of Euro collapse. If you trade of own commodities because of inflation fear you will buy them in dollars. The dollar love it or hate is still the world's reserve currency and therefore the dollar bull case.
Looking at the DXY chart, I was struck by the crest in value over the period 1980-1985 or so.
Guessing this was the result of Volcker boosting rates to 18-20%, am I right? To smother the rampant inflationary period of the late 1970s?
If only we had a Volcker at the Fed, instead of our ZIRPy Bernank.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qR6U_fYizLA
Nice act, you should take it to the carnival ... goes great with crystal ball fortune tellers and palm readers.
It's very likely to have a flash crash next week.
VIX and TED had a important levels broken at the end of July, 2011.
Now, TED broke 50 points and VIX very close to break an important level that is 37.5
See here : http://pracompraroupravender.blogspot.com/2011/11/teremos-um-flash-crash-semana-que-vem_27.html
Please sign me up for the newsletter of that guy who makes money doing technical analysis. Thanks.
All I can say is Jesus Christ !
I see $220 oil and S&P at 600.
This is post freaking ridiculous. CHS is getting senile. Trying to predict current market action based on a 1895 to present chart is retarded. You are being played for a fool if you believe this tripe.
Well sentiment has clearly turned deflationary. I guess that means:
1. The dollar will ____________ ?
2. The markets will ___________?
1. A= Rally
2. A= Take a big shit
Lagarde will be licking scrotums and carpet munching any nickel she can collectively raise for desperate purposes. Just recently, the Fund (IMF) opened several global retail outlets and mall kiosks to generate the much needed revenues in aiding recapitalizing banks who have passed three successful stress tests. Lagarde is sensitive to the political correctness of UN gender policies and has unveiled "Yours + Mine" collectible merchandise. Forecasted holiday sales projections are expected to bump the US GDP by .0009%.
The Metro Sexual product line
Female-Bodied Person
LMAO. Media puppets are screaming falsehoods to lure new victims. Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving.
Many new friends flew into that shithole called Washington DC during Thanksgiving. I always start my educational tour at the The Washington National Cathedral, then they can begin to connect the dots. Just like clockwork someone from the audience asks, " Who is Thomas Woodrow Wilson"? Generally, it’s a young teen. LOL.
Winks! Glad to be home again & will not be returning back in the area until spring.
The dollar is nutso. A few months ago gave some insights into someone who had moved to Cali frome TO. I fwas good.. But have no idea where it is going now.
"I gave up on my species" - George Carlin
http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=7KPEJNGAlqw&feature=fvwp
Honestly, I always thought, just based on initial impression and superstition, that technical analysis was phony and a scam. Do people actually make money using this stuff? I should try to have an open mind about this.
Looking at these charts and all the bollinger band nonsense and exclamations like "Oooh, a head and shoulders pattern", one has to conclude that this market analysis business is a lot of crap. Many mystical gurus expound on stochastic patterns and in the end you are clueless. You can compile all the statistics possible over any given time period but for what purpose? This is a crap game and the dice have been supplied by the Great Attractor. What a fucking farce.
Technical breakdown?
Head and shoulders?
I remember the last time supposed "experts" were claiming support levels broken, head and shoulders tops, etc.
Shampoo Mc"Huge" comes to mind.
Usually a sign that a massive rally is imminent, when so many are already negative, things look the worst with no hope of a resolution.
Easy...Stay long and profit!
RobotLemming, you are a grade-A dick, and a short-sighted, momo-chasing idiot, but I hope you had a nice Thanksgiving anyway.
I never thought about dow 800 or what ever.... with inflation I just doubt it.
Even with the tech chart. I think the chart needs to be adjusted to today's dollars and then you will have it.
do not expect IBM to go to 10 but 50 is not unreasonable. It will be hard to tell when the bottom is finally in as the Euro will crash and become non-existent and then what other currency will the big banks use?
The USD is the only one with enough quantity to fulfill the obligation. It could easily soar to 1.50 or more.... One thing about markets is they go further than even the most pessimistic/ optimistic analysts predict. and this always happens. Good luck to all and please use boobs for an avatar.
Long live boobs.
By the way you guys always hassle robotrader.... I always looked forward to his or hers posts and found the info as good as the pictures.
good luck to all,
DOW 600, are you fucking serious??? LOL...
Try DOW 60,000. The bankers will never allow that kind of deflation if they can print. Deflation gives Bernanke a fucking orgasm because at that point it's "all systems go" for the next QE.
I'd rather have this guy explain why the DJIA is going to rally again on Monday. That's the story.
Fuckin' forget DJIA 600. Ain't gonna happen.
With gasoline prices falling off a cliff, many consumers are going to be ebullient this season and celebrate by doing more shopping.
Seems to be dropping at a rate of 2 cents every day here in L.A.
http://66.70.86.64/ChartServer/ch.gaschart?Country=Canada&Crude=f&Period...$/G
Traffic here was ridiculous again, beaches crowded, everyone having a good time watching all the games.
Most people could care less about Wall St. they view it as a casino for gamblers, nobody has any interest in Europe, either. In fact, most guys around here hate Europeans anyway due to their entitlement mentality and hope the entire region goes into a huge depression to teach those guys the value of work and sacrifice.
Gasoline prices in LA hit an all-time record for October and for the week before Thanksgiving. More refined petroleum products are being exported to South America due to growing demand.
IP address? WTF? You got your own fucking server Robo? Running it out of your mom's basement are you?
Robo when she finds out you are running a sever out of her basement she is going to beat your ass..... and it's long over due!
Greg Martin, hoboken NJ, latitude 40.7458, longitude -74.0321.
TTL is 112 on ping, add 16 for each hop. TTL is actually 128. Windows OS 2003/XP running IIS6.0 with DB2, SNMP unavailable
16 49 ms 37 ms 37 ms 66.70.86.64
1025/tcp on 66.70.86.64
80/tcp on 66.70.86.64
81/tcp on 66.70.86.64
49153/tcp on 66.70.86.64
49152/tcp on 66.70.86.64
84/tcp on 66.70.86.64
6789/tcp on 66.70.86.64
89/tcp on 66.70.86.64
3071/tcp on 66.70.86.64
1026/tcp on 66.70.86.64
------CLOSE THESE PORTS IMMEDIATELY BELOW THIS LINE------Very bad if running a public web service
49153/tcp on 66.70.86.64
49152/tcp on 66.70.86.64
1025/tcp on 66.70.86.64
These are all OS processes that do not need to be forward facing. Especially the MSRDP...close it.
Cisco Security management port...nice. Nobody has updated the firmware or applied an update at all on the security appliance. I could in theory just use the cisco to remotely connect to anything being managed by it because someone didn't do their job and just plugged it in without configuration to lock it down.
The port 80's are the web service and "partner" web services. Might want to lock up ports 81,84 and 89. The open database port for the IBM should be closed immediately and named pipes used with only NetBIOS with zero IP translation. Not even sure why you have the IP available, you could mask it with MAC and play with routing so the bread crumb trail goes through a VLAN full of honey pots. Low or no overhead to do that either, just makes it more secure.
Speed is excellent and smq.datapipe.net is a colocation pipe. Whore bandwidth...purchase by the burst or the byte. Cheap and fast whatdoyouknow...Godaddy owns the pipe.
I was thinking that I should kick it over and build you a porn site for fun, but it looks like someone has been working hard on it. Get your security fixed on the site Greg if you want it to run longer than a day.
With Europe begging to drag other currencies into the Black Hole, I don't see confidence. The debt situation is a pressure cooker for anyone in it. To be confident, there would have to be resolution and a clear direction of the markets. Anything less is just whistling past the graveyard at midnight.
http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/11/02/the-daily-climb-2/
The Author is well known to find predictive patterns in tea leaves and Elvis's likeness in paint spills. He has been noted for discovering a likeness of Bernini's rendition of the Last Supper in cumulus cloud formations and has been observed to accurately predict world events from the writings of Nostradamus. Awesome.
See for yourself.
Gasoline prices in San Diego are falling, now about to break to new lows.
http://66.70.86.64/ChartServer/ch.gaschart?Country=Canada&Crude=f&Period...$/G
Poor Jim Puplava got it all wrong with his Peak Oil theory.
At least he can fill up his boat for cheap now.
gimme Detroit
Yes, RowboatTraitor is of course correct --- the world's supply of oil is infinite. That is why we are now drilling into and tapping deep-sea deposits that were never considered worth the cost or the danger in decades past.
Yep, somehow the world's supply of petroleum is infinite, even though, quite strangely, the earth itself is not. Almost seems like some kind of paradox, doesn't it?
From the first law of thermodynamics...
"Energy can be neither created nor destroyed. It can only change forms."
Oh, so your local gas price is falling? Of course that means that peak oil is just a fraud. Never mind that peak oil has been proven nationally and regionally as being true, never mind that far smarter people than you have thought their way to the conclusion it´s true... Never mind the truth because your local gasoline peddler managed to shave a couple of cents of the gallon.
Greg Martin, hoboken NJ, latitude 40.7458, longitude -74.0321.
TTL is 112 on ping, add 16 for each hop. TTL is actually 128. Windows OS 2003/XP running IIS6.0 with DB2, SNMP unavailable
16 49 ms 37 ms 37 ms 66.70.86.64
1025/tcp on 66.70.86.64
80/tcp on 66.70.86.64
81/tcp on 66.70.86.64
49153/tcp on 66.70.86.64
49152/tcp on 66.70.86.64
84/tcp on 66.70.86.64
6789/tcp on 66.70.86.64
89/tcp on 66.70.86.64
3071/tcp on 66.70.86.64
1026/tcp on 66.70.86.64
------CLOSE THESE PORTS IMMEDIATELY BELOW THIS LINE------Very bad if running a public web service
49153/tcp on 66.70.86.64
49152/tcp on 66.70.86.64
1025/tcp on 66.70.86.64
These are all OS processes that do not need to be forward facing. Especially the MSRDP...close it.
Cisco Security management port...nice. Nobody has updated the firmware or applied an update at all on the security appliance. I could in theory just use the cisco to remotely connect to anything being managed by it because someone didn't do their job and just plugged it in without configuration to lock it down.
The port 80's are the web service and "partner" web services. Might want to lock up ports 81,84 and 89. The open database port for the IBM should be closed immediately and named pipes used with only NetBIOS with zero IP translation. Not even sure why you have the IP available, you could mask it with MAC and play with routing so the bread crumb trail goes through a VLAN full of honey pots. Low or no overhead to do that either, just makes it more secure.
Speed is excellent and smq.datapipe.net is a colocation pipe. Whore bandwidth...purchase by the burst or the byte. Cheap and fast whatdoyouknow...Godaddy owns the pipe.
I was thinking that I should kick it over and build you a porn site for fun, but it looks like someone has been working hard on it. Get your security fixed on the site Greg if you want it to run longer than a day.
Plausable, sure. Likely, no. A dow of 1000 would have stocks trading at about 15% of book value. Not to mention the probably that the stock market would not even be trading anymore because of the mass pandimonium and 50% unemployment.
Let's hope that one does not happen.
BTW, the author is not the only one remarking about the bottom in the dollar being like the 90's. I think Bob Hoye and Steve Saville are making the same analogies.
A Dow of 1000 implies something very bad. Technicians miss the real world sometimes. For a Dow of 1000 to happen, there would need to be a scenarion either most of us have not imagined or do not think possible. The ones I think unlikely but possible are China winning a war against the US, the US in a huge most of the decade deflationary spiral, or a nuclear strike. I don't see any other snenarios.
If you ask me if I think the market is going down, yes. Way down, yes. An order of magnitude is too much.
"economic theory".............?
every economic theory i've encountered always has a constant.....
for instance...the rule of law..
there are 2 puppet prime ministers placed in the EU in the past month.
this game IS FAR from being over.
germany will violate its constitution and back euro bonds.
i have no idea how.
all i know is this is the only chance the technocrats have at "integrating" europe.
I can't decide though.
Which would be more effective at "integration"?
"Saving" (punting the can down the road, instead of kicking it - which is what I believe eurobonds will do) or, collapse? After all, a crisis is a wonderful opportunity for consolidation. At this point, i'm 80/20 in terms of probablity respectively.
Hitler was interesting for econimic theory.
Reference is interesting for two reasons. No one ever makes it. And Europe is getting very anti-democratic.
Facism is an extreme label for what is going on over there, but it is not democracy, free markets, capitalism, or anything that we have models for by a long shot.
which is why it's difficult to take long term technicals at face value w/out some context. afterall - those line have been there "forever" what, specifically is in the charts that says "now!"?
we are forming the right shoulder of an historic triple top...the false gains of the 90's will be obliterated...it is an absolutely massive technical move...there is still time to either ignore this move or profit from it
edit:nevermind the headlines...this movement has been building for decades...this is how the market works...without regard for individual opinion...
bonam fortunam
That last chart looks like hopium to me.
Psychology is part of the market.
The Squid and others use Data Mining software to game the market.
Doesn’t anyone notice how the market moves when rumors are blatted out by politicians and economists? I’m sure they think they are doing God’s work.
This was bullshit. our bubbles are totally predictable and a result of deliberate bubble blowing which is a part of so many themes that are regularly talked about on zh.
---captured markets, manipulated markets,
----deliberate legal policies supporting creditors, policies allowing for financialization and casinoization to encourage dis-interested gambling on other people's losses rather than requiring regulated insurance markets for buying and selling of derivative policies on any stake holders' underlying ownership interests,--not to mention their life
( yes you can buy someone's life insurance policy and kill them and get paid in this country).
---debt backed by government in mortgage, student loan , and other markets.---a debt based economy.
based on this upcoming dollar rally, what does that do to the price of gold in USD? 800, 900, 650? anyone done analysis on this scenario?
Why all the comments here about deflation?
There won't be any deflation. Falling prices in some areas due to demand collapse (like housing), but that's not deflation.
In fact there will be plenty of INflation. Massive currency printing to fund more massive sovereign debt, like $600 billion the Fed is printing up to give to the IMF as we speak.
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