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Guest Post: Silver: Ready to Pop or Drop?
Submitted by FMX Connect
Silver: Ready to Pop or Drop?
Volatility is About to Expand
On several occasions in the past, we’ve alerted readers to potentially big moves in markets using our Trend-Vol alerts, Precious Metals being the chief focus. Trend-Vol is an early warning system that focuses on several factors to predict movement. Those factors include: historical and implied volatilities, skewness and Bollinger Band width. This momentum indicator warns when volatility is about to increase and directional moves can be large, quick, and profitable, even after the original trigger goes off.
Simply put, and stated here often; volatility breathes. We believe that it is about to exhale soon in the Precious Metals, particularly Silver, but Gold is on the radar as well. What we do not know is in which direction the markets will head…. yet.
A Silver Trend-Vol Retrospective
We can show some historical behavior in Silver when the signal triggers using the chart above.
1. Here Silver gave a mid-day signal that you might have bought and held with a stop at the top band line which also coincided with the 100 SMA. You would have been rewarded with at least $1.50 had you knew where to place trailing protective stops. This even if you only bought the close of the break out day and held for 3 days.
2. This was a quick 2 day trade that had you again bought the close of a very strong day, you’d have had an opportunity to sell $1.00 to $2.00 higher the next day.
3. This is where the CME margin raises just proved to be too much for the market to bear. If you sold the initial day’s close despite it being over a $3.00 down day, you’d have still had $5.00 left in the move the next day, and if you were brave with overnight orders, another $3.00+ the next.
To be fair, as in every system, devils lurk in the details. Like, how to determine what an entry point is and what is a fake out; Where to put your initial stop-loss and how to trail-stop winners. These vary depending on the trader’s style bankroll and VaR management. This may help:
- Risk 1 to make 2-3 on your trades.
- Use daily low/highs and the Bollinger Band line for trail-stops
- The lowest risk signals come at end of day, midday signals may reverse hard.
- Conversely, waiting for end of day to confirm a signal, often misses a good chunk of the move.
- The best daily alerts often coincide with a 60 minute B-Band widening from a tight position.
Get Ready
Silver and to a lesser extent Gold are poised to move. You can make a case for either direction. Today’s action was very constructive for commodities in general. But Gold and Silver were the weak performers.
The charts show bear-flags, but stochs are in the process of reversing. Fact is, we can see what we want based on our own bias. What we are much more confident in is that in the next week, the Precious Metals will have a move of their own.
If you are in the camp that Europe must print money to solve its problems, despite the evidence that Germany is getting its way for now then put on your buying shoes. Ditto if you see Helicopter Ben cranking out more greenbacks in response to a Euro debasing or political pressures from our Keynesian overlords.
If you believe that we are on a deflationary spiral, and that there simply isn’t enough money to buy anything at current inflated prices, and there will be no QE3 and that Europe will have enough (levered) money to solve their Grecian woes then get ready to sell Mortimer. Just remember that straddles don’t care which way the market goes.
Last week we told people to keep their powder dry. Now it is time to load’em up. We’ll update you on a direction when we see it in the markets. – Good Luck.
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The very short-term break either up or down is, to me, less relevant than what happens in 6 months or a year. Where will we be then? We supposedly have baby boomers retiring at the rate of 10k per day. States and municipalities are running out of cash and waiting to be crushed by their pension obligations. Unemployment is bad and not getting better anytime soon. Widespread violent conflict of one sort or another seems to be on the horizon. The masses in the EU and US are getting restless. There's no solution lined up for any of the financial crises unfolding. Do TPTB print their way into oblivion to deal with these issues, or do they force people to take a healthy bite out of the shit sandwich that's been prepared for them?
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/cris-sheridan/2011/09/23/amaz...
I wonder too which direction in the short term: I mean the lag in Gold in Silver has told me all along the move in equities is pure bullshit. Why? The only thing that can move equities higher is printing in the EU (Which Merkel has all but said it's not gonna happen, for now anyway). So, this all tells me the EUR/USD trade is nearing it's end. Which also means Gold and Silver could very well test lower support levels.
I've got firepower should I be right. But since logic hasn't worked out for months ya just never really know. But immense volatility either way, and playing via straddle, is something that I would agree heavily with.
^^^mo'fuggin nailed it
Every time the price of Au dips, squadrons of Airbus 777 cargo planes are heading East, choc full of bars. The bankster complex have been doing everything possible to take down gold and silver in the past 6-9 months, and where are we? Still up. The "glimpse" of $50 and $1,925 are a foretaste of the feast to come once the holsters are empty.
Wrong on PMs and wrong on the airplane. Boeing makes the triple 7.
Good catch on the planes. As to the other, well...you didn't really say anything.
Yeh, 'good catch' might be a bit generous of you MK, unless he likes picking nits.
Gold should be over $3000 and silver $100 NOW.....that will happen eventually - so who cares what it will be manipulated tomorrow?
classic backfilling after a meteoric run -
must have patience grasshopper
cme = can't manipulate enchantment
I'd guess that the illustrious states-leaders of Europe will come to terms behind the scenes announcing a copasetic solution to any and all problems without debt recycling, debt forgiveness, bankruptcy (whether annopunced or unannounced) viod of any and all further expansion of the ECB balance sheet, priniting of fiat monies, the balancing of all EU budgets within a matter of weeks time, no currency devaluations, no further need for currency swaps nor market interventions and strains of Ode to Joy echoing theorughot each and every sacred hallowed hall of European governanance leading to peace on earth, goodwill toward men, all peoples coexisiting happily, extinguishment of diease and famine, equality for all, solutions to global warming (er, climate change) pollution and the abolition of war, hate, discrimination and God his very self, supplanting all with the care and feality which can only be provided by the Modern State.
Fucking Awesome.
A what?
Annopunced viod priniting theorughot governanance coexisiting extinguishment of diease and feality.
Yes you are.
Fucking awesome.
You are using one fucked up translator.
Silver has got to drop to $1.12 before I start worrying. But if it does drop that low, I will need a dually Hemi for new purchases.
The only way it would drop that low is if they introduce a 'New' dollar where you have to trade in 100 of the old dollars to get one new dollar. I read many comments from people who don't seem to understand that the old dollars they are holding are losing value all the time. What's more, they are still losing value even if they are collecting 3 or 4% interest.
sometimes I wish Merkel would just give in so the printing can finally begin ... then it would clearly be silver ==> pop!
Central Bankers Cafe: Lunch Menu
Maincourse: Executive Order seizing all Gold and Silver ETF's
Desert: Mud Pies for the United Serfs of America
I guess few have noticed the withdrawals from SLV and the COMEX lately. I wonder what will happen when a major industrial user starts crying that he can't get silver; the scarcity can only be hidden for so long.
I believe we are in a deflationary spiral and that Europe will print...
;-)
Still waiting for this 'deflationary spiral' to be reflected in the price level.
still waiting for the inflationary boom that leads to a 14 dollar egg and 10,000 gold.....keep dreaming. hyperinflation WILL NOT HAPPEN
If you are talking to me I never called for hyper-inflation in the 'short'-'medium' term. It will be interesting to see how the government handles the exponential hockey stick debt/gdp graph without destroying the currency, in whatever form that may take.
Maybe, but you deflationary flat-earthers just LOVE to present that false dichotomy --- either hyperinflation, or else a never-before-seen fiat currency deflation as the only two possible outcomes --- which by itself makes me seriously question your reasoning abilities.
No, we very well may NOT see a hyperinflation in the USA or other Western nations, but we WILL see significant fiat currency depreciation, and falling standards of living. Will it really be of SO much comfort to you that technically you may in the end be proven correct, by the dollar only falling 70 or 80% in value, instead of 99+%?
Your overlords have convinced you that silver and gold are overpriced and risky : GOOD ... Now get back to buying those dividend paying utilities and treasuries and dont forget to spice it up with high PE momo stocks. GOOD ... You're so smart...
It's funny how the ultimate safe-haven assets are made out to be the riskiest. It's just plain funny. What, should I invest more into my 401(k)? Or should I buy a house? Maybe I should just park my funds in a money market account earning .45% APR?
Oh, Oh, I could start a business and get a huge commercial loan! This would be a great time to start a small business, tons of demand for "shit" out there! Notes are burning holes in folks' pockets!
Anyone sense that we're fucked either way? I'll stick with my risky safe-havens thank you.
If you are in the camp that Europe must print money to solve its problems, despite the evidence that Germany is getting its way for now then put on your buying shoes. Ditto if you see Helicopter Ben cranking out more greenbacks in response to a Euro debasing or political pressures from our Keynesian overlords.
THIS.
I wish I had the money to buy Gold and Silver.....b/c you just KNOW they are waiting to print more money to keep feeding the beast and delay the envitable.
Dow 15,000 = Silver $50
Silver is a "Risk Asset", gamed with the Euro just like SPY, DIA, QQQ, etc.
Er no, quite the opposite actually.
The 'elite filth' would kill children to keep pumping the DOW, SPY, et al up.
The 'elite filth' would kill children to keep silver price down.
I'm sick of you coming to an intellectual battle, unarmed. You are pathologically stupid. But then again, it seems like you enjoy having your dog lick peanut butter off your dick as you type this shit.
i've never tried that. smooth or crunchie? what kinda dog?
Standard french poodle bitch
Is it Gay if it's not a bitch, bitchez?
You're talking about paper silver, correct?
You are definitely a freakin idiot Robo....just putting up 'DOW15,000=silver $50' means nothing at all just useless mutterings.
I agree with you regarding Robo....but, he/she may be right.....Dow 15k, silver 50, gold 2000+, gas $4+, one loaf of bread 4 or 5$. Robo wants to keep talking about returns in inflated dollars. How about this; Considering buying power.....a 15k Dow now is worth perhaps the same as a 9k or 10k Dow in 2001.
Yeah, but what will NFLX be?
Enquiring minds want to know....
Still in business, hopefully. I could give a shit about their stock price, I just don't want to have to go back to driving 15 miles to rent a movie.
the "conventional wisdom" suggests that the bankers will hold on to power - and that we'll see more and more inflation, bailouts, taxes, etc., and that the trend toward globalization continues ...
the contrarian POV here is that we get a sudden-stop system failure and a return to local economy, barter networks, and savagely reduced size and scope of government.
we're about to find out which way it breaks. the "mexican standoff" is nearing its conclusion
title: ready to pop or drop?
ZH: i don't care i will keep buying no matter what also u dum
answer: drop
Believe what? That they guarantee silver will be above $45 by Nov 30. Or possibly, above $30. Unless it goes down instead. Because they can manipulate the market like The Morgue?
Somebody had too much Jolt cola and too many snowballs, I think. And now their head is spinning from the caffeine and sugar rush.
.......do da, do da.....
Copper up 7+%, Silver up 1.5% - that does not compute. With US running debt and unfunded liabilities at record rates, it does not make sense that silver is not rallying. So who is selling here? The Indians and Chinese are buying in droves at the retail level. How can silver be falling with US debt and liabilities running $23.6 billion each and every day? How can you have deflation with bubble debt levels - those debts will simply crush economies. In a bizzaro world, silver investors are being crushed instead.
I have no knowledge at all ...but my gut estimate is that among all trading activity worldwide there is 30% robots, 68% human, but TA, 2% still trade according to fundamental data, with outlook to zero. What I want to say: The price of PM does NOT have ANY meaning.
This sounds like Jeffrey Christian of the CPM Group during the "Great Silver Debate" with Bill Murphey last week.
"Our outlook for gold for 2012 is up, or down." No shit! LOL.
http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/
I have no comment on this.
Silver's worth what superkunt-bid stuffer-Blythe says it's worth...until paper completely fails that is. Until then, BTFD.
And now, time for the weather report: Tomorrow, it might be sunny, but it may be cloudy, could rain, but it might be hot. According to our doppler radar, be ready for anything.
This doesn't make sense to me:
If you believe that we are on a deflationary spiral, and that there simply isn’t enough money to buy anything at current inflated prices, and there will be no QE3 and that Europe will have enough (levered) money to solve their Grecian woes then get ready to sell Mortimer. Just remember that straddles don’t care which way the market goes.
Europe coming up with more money to bailout Greece, etc is inflationary, not deflationary.
True monetization will come if the ECB gets involved. Everything else is levering, insurance , IOUs and promises of money, but not actual money. The EFSF is already funded with 440 BB Euros.
It's only inflationary initially. Once levered money disappears into the black hole that is Greece and the rest of the porkers, that leverage comes back to bite in the form of more deflation as the losses exceed the actual sacrifice by the levered ratio.
and this leads to repudiation of debt and consequent repudiation of the notes of the State involved.
Let's see here...Iceland had a deflationary collapse. What did the exchange rate there do? Did paper Krona become more worthful? This is exactly what deflationists would have you believe happened. It didn't.
The Fed will print. If they do not, the debtors in need of dollars will repudiate and in doing so, cause serial, cascading defaults forcing EVERYONE ELSE to repudiate, and ultimately the FRN will be repudiated.
Shhhh, Trav --- don't you know that you are never supposed to bring up history with a deflationist? They are allergic to such inconvenient facts as monetary history, as it invariably gives them lockjaw.
Asia has 2.5 billion people with over 3 billion debit and credit cards issued. All major Chinese and Indian banks now offer multiple forms of buying gold and silver plus thousands of vending machines are being installed all over the place.
Do the math.
Do they really have Au and Ag vending machines? That's a blinking light for "back up the truck," no? Rip those puppies right off their moorings and ahoy!
the owners have likely anticipated that possibility... Just sayin'
''a quick 2 day trade that had you again bought the close of a very strong day, you’d have had an opportunity to sell $1.00 to $2.00 higher the next day.''
Gotta love casino's, tokens and being bailed out instead of gaining real money. Here is a pretty good deal, you keep gathering junk pieces of paper (I dont care if u call them Dollar, Euro, Pound etc) and digits. I hope they make you happy. Gather millions for all I care. Ill keep slowly stacking the metals of kings and merchants after having some surplus labour. You keep that slave paper (debt). Best surplus fiat is dumped fiat exchanged for real value for me. I really dont care what the so called price in this fiat casino is.
voodoo-technical pseudo-analysis.
here's what might be going on: TBTFs need money and/or anticipate position limits imposed by CFTC -> TBTFs needing to close their nakes shorts -> instrumented pop or drop attempt -> again -> again -> volatility -> CME margin hikes -> significant drop -> closing some naked shorts -> dip finally set free to move up
it might be wishful thinking but certainly sounds more sane than voodoo-charting above.
I personally am no technician and also take delight in calling it voo-doo. But if everything is a conspiracy, markets are rigged, and truth in fundamental analysis is elusive, then the only thing that works is technical analysis. It alone is theart of reading the"tells" of a dishonestly run marketplace. It just depends on how good the user of the tool is. Our technician didnt write the piece.
That said, this isnt really technical analysis
I think technical analysis might be reasonably applicable to assets (long term only) chased by freshly printed funny-money. printed money flows are detached from any fundamentals and indeed they might follow some patterns. however, in most cases IMO tech is applied in a wrong way to wrong assets (why it's applied to single currencies and assets rather than eg. baskets?) and seems to "work" because of "the confirmation effect". like astroanalysis :D
Poised to move....
...sideways.
Stagflated disdeflation, bitchez.
By the volumes I have seen in the PM´s....the speculators are gone..that is good....and we are slowly going back up again...no HFT´s here...they all went back to the DOW.....lol....what is it today...Netflix..or is it Apple..maybe Amazon...stock de jour
Volumes ARE gone. Now we need some shorts to get in. Keep an eye on theopen interest to rise in a sell-off. then we can get ready to rally.
Netflix has been incinerated, and rightfully so... moved like a penny stock in a pump and dump.
Everything points to a Third Reich Bottom formation....that won't be taken out for a thousand years ! Therefore the manipulators will pull the rug out and we will fall on our bottoms ! Solution: Buy physical now (Perth Mint still out of stock ?) if you can find it ! Don't try to pick this treacherous bottom.....if you must go long, wait till some upside mojo kicks in ! Lock in your physical orders right now because it may be impossible to get much better prices ! Monedas 2011 Living in Limbo in a state of perpetual, FU impertinence induced by hoarder's confidence !
+ 1
The Bearing, a fellow hoarder of PMs, believes that Monedas (World Jihad Comedy Tourist) is completely right!
Physical only. Price of gold is cheap. Give it some time, and you will be VERY Happy that you bought gold.
Is silver a "Risk Asset" or not?
Hilarious how I'm constantly "dissed" about my comments on the relatioship of PM's vs. "Risk Assets".
Heh, all of the so-called "Experts" featured on King World News and jsmineset have been dead wrong about this correlation.
Maybe a few weeks earlier this year gold was actually going up while stocks were tanking, but the same thing happened prior to the 2008 crash, as General Jim was screeching "This Is It"!!!, then subsequently excoriating everyone who started panic selling the XAU stocks afterwards.
Another PM crash could also happen if Europe implodes.
But I don't think gold and silver have any chance whatsoever of crashing as long as stocks continue getting ramped up.
A good economy means more gold and silver buying.
Deleveraging and "Risk Off"means panic selling of bullion.
Funny how so many guys here still don't get it.
Just a little word cloud from all your posts so far today.
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/717/robotrader102411.png/
Awesome, fuu.
+1000 fuu
Any recs on Netflix here?
Funny how YOU still don't get it.
Check the level SPX was 10 years and 5 years ago.
Check the level gold was 10 years and 5 years ago.
Now, do the math.
Did you master mathematics before graduating high school?
Thought not.
RobotLemming: "What does 'years ago' mean?"
Like most modern, ignorant, blinkered Americans, and every infant, RobotLemming lives in the eternal present, with no historical perspective whatsoever.
Who needs Gold in a good economy? Silver acts more like a commodity yes, but gold? When everything is dandy gold is useless.
http://www.infowars.com/tsa-agents-harass-man-over-silver-coins/
When even ZHers get bearish on physical PMs it is definetlely time to buy some more.
If you have any spare currency, ANYTIME is a good time to buy gold.
Don't you recognize a pattern here on ZH ? Everytime OP-EX is a couple days away that is what the sentiment is here. You have traders (shorties) here trying to shake the weak. Well golly uncle Bill looky here... we have a op-ex coming up on Wednesday.
2011 gold and silver options expiration calendar:
Contract Month Expiry Date January 12 December 2010 February 26 January 2011 March 23 February 2011 April 28 March 2011 May 26 April 2011 June 25 May 2011 July 27 June 2011 August 26 July 2011 September 25 August 2011 October 27 September 2011 November 26 October 2011 Decemeber 22 November 2011Imagine that ! LOL
"Don't you recognize a pattern here on ZH ?"
Heh, yeah, I've noticed almost every Op Ex you're here too, noting it. No doubt the point is moot for the lion's share of ZH, but a service nonetheless 3gees.
I'll add 3words for your consideration: Put/Call ratio.
@robo your theory only holds if US treasuries are rallying on the selloff... GO check the stock/bond markets of greece compare to gold and come back to speak...Good luck
The facts are the facts.
The fundos don't change.
World silver production for 0NE YEAR is 900 million nounces.
The paper silver markets trade over one billion ounces PER DAY!
The amount of freely available investment silver, on any given day is approximately 1.5 million ounces.
Easy to see where the over supply is. Paper is paper. Use it everyday - just before I flush!
The useless metal?
From the link below:
"This new Canadian silver commemorative coin is legal tender with a value of $20. It is available for the official price of only $20. You simply exchange $20 from your wallet for a $20 coin of pure 99.99% silver."
http://www.mint.ca/store/product/product_exchange.jsp?itemId=prod1040001&rcmeid=EMSx310x3391&EMS_MID=EMSx310x3391
Canada is producing a $20 Legal Tender Silver coin. Silver content value at current spot price $8.83. The RCM must be thinking Silver has some upside potential? Mexico is also trying to develop a Legal Tender Silver coin based on a floating spot price value.
Clint Liquor
Yep, and they are looking for MORONS ,WHO in their right mind is going to pay $20, for a silver coin at $8.83 slv cntent??
Hello??????????????????
Calling all morons............talk about a SPREAD.
I guess the Legal Tender part is over your head.
Clint Liquor
I guess the Legal Tender part is over your head.
No, when you can purchase a full ounce for $33.00,and you have a close to 5x's value over that LT coin, I see no upside in Legal Tender.
Why would LT be worth that extra, I am old feeble and have dimentia at times, so pls(seriously) explain the math.
The Legal Tender part limits your downside risk, you pay $20 fiats and can get $20 fiats back at anytime, no tax, no buyer premium. The upside is unlimited. The coins can always be sold as bullion if the value of the metal exceeds the face value. The same as pre-64 US Coins.
The "legal tender" part trips up a bunch of folks but the complaint is still valid. The predominant reason I dropped a ton of money into silver Maple leafs back in 03 was because the spread between "legel tender" value of $5 CAD and the cost of the coin $6.25 ish USD was a pretty decent bet on the downside spread. I didn't really care that I might lose 20% or so as an absolute maximum loss (there are some currency spreads not covered which were unknown) given that the upside was relatively unlimited given what I saw as a ponzi scheme unwinding. I still have the coins.
I think that this short term mentality concerning PM trading is going to catch a lot of folks out of position at some point.
The monetary system is going to fail, either through a massive deflation or inflation, pick your poison. When it does fail completely (understanding that PMs may be cheaper in USD for a relatively short period of time, and maybe not available physically), the ability to acquire your needs are going to be very difficult to impossible to accomplish. Therefore, have your "needs" covered beforehand. You should have food/water/medications/shelter/etc, covered (along with the means to protect them).
After that is covered THEN consider means to trade/barter for goods you will need during the monetary failure interim. Booze/Cigs/gasoline/food/etc are all historically decent items to stock for this endeavor.
THEN and only then, put excess cash into PMs. Hide these like your life depends on them because they actually may!
These PMs will be your transition currency and store of value for when the country begins to function again. Good luck to all!
Silver and to a lesser extent Gold are poised to move....We’ll update you on a direction when we see it in the markets. – Good Luck.
Helpful - not.
Someone's going to win Game 5 tonight. We'll update you as to whether the Rangers or the Cardinals when we see the box score tomorrow. Good Luck.
I find it funny how any article on gold/silver immediately degrades into the following convo:
1. buy silver / buy gold with every last dollar you have.
2. silver / gold is useless/worthless/will drop 50000% tomorrow
Whether you're a silver/gold bug or not, you have to look at things in context of each individual's investment portfolio. You cannot make a blase statement about 'investing in silver/gold for the long term' any more than you can say you can't 'eat' gold (or silver).
If you'd invested in gold over the past decade yes, you'd have had fantastic returns. If however you were retiring in the 80's or 90's and you were 100% invested in gold at the start of those decades, you'd have been eating dog food.
Sure I can't eat gold, but I can't eat paper currency either. CURRENTLY the system requires me to utilise paper fiat to pay for consumer goods. Sure it might not be the best store of wealth, but for my current liquidity needs I still need to utilise paper fiat. No 'm not saying save everything in paper fiat. Until I have the practical option of using weight based gold/silver via an electronic medium, I'm still limited to using credit cards online.
So what's my point? To each his own. If you believe in silver/gold, buy it to your hearts content at whatever price you believe is correct.
If you DON'T believe in physical gold/silver, DON'T buy it, short it if you want.
I find it funny how BOTH sides of the argument are ALWAYS trying to 'prove' they are right. Quite frankly you have NO ONE to answer to except yourself. If your investment in gold/silver is paying off, then good for you. If shorting gold/silver paid off for you then good for you too. BOTH of you were right (in context). EVERY investment asset has risk, whatever your belief. Even if you bought real estate outright, you could have a flood / nuclear meltdown that irradiates the land and makes it inhabitable. You could have physical gold and lose it. You could have fiat currency and have hyperinflation.
Yes the market may be manipulated, and it may be wrong, but it can stay manipulated and it can stay wrong a hell of a lot longer than you can stay solvent.
I know this is 'fight club', but lets fight about the real issues, like why we have centralised economic planning organisation, why the government is curbing our rights
Yes the market may be manipulated, and it may be wrong, but it can stay manipulated and it can stay wrong a hell of a lot longer than you can stay solvent.
Not if you've been stacking the stuff physically for years. I think you're wrong about the relevance of this. Fighting to 'change' the system (ala OWS et al) is to me a less fruitful effort than preparing to make the most out of the residual. And the core strategy to preparing is storing - wealth, consumables, protection, sustainability, etc. Au and Ag are cornerstones to that, which is why they are so much a part of the conversation.
Prep on!
did you read the first part of my post?
Yes in the last decade PM has returned and will likely continue to give outsized returns.
But that was no consolation to retirees in the early 80's through to the 90's. Those retirees are dead now, what good did gold do to them then?
Again, my point is it depends on the individual. Yes, if you have a 30-40 year timeline and can live with the volatility, by all means stack your PMs.
If you're retired today and you're 100% in silver, can you honestly tell me you can live with the volatility, when you need to go buy groceries and can't figure out if you have to take 3 or 5 silver eagles to be traded in at the local coin shop before you go to walmart.
Yes, I 'believe' in physical PMs. No I do not believe in putting 100% in anything. I'm someone between the 0% and 100% net worth in PMs.
Volatility is irrelevant if you are holding PMs as a wealth store.
Retirees in the 80s and early 90s accumulated PMs during a period in which real interest rates were in effect (thanks to Volcker). In other words, the hyperinflationary-then-deflationary-depression that might have happened coming out of the 70s never came to be.
There is no such "monetary austerity" now. The US has $14.9T debt on a GDP of about the same, and is adding $1.4T per year to it, with no end in sight. Most of the chambers are empty with respect to fiscal, twist, and accounting tricks. So to compare the plight of the 1980s PM holders with what is presented today is misplaced.
The notion of being retired today and 100% in silver is ridiculous. Reliance on PMs for current income is not using them as a wealth store. Liquidity requirements haven't changed. The issue is what vehicle do you trust to store your deferred consumption. On that count, PMs are primary. What do you think the Indians and Chinese are doing?
The punch-line of this story (which started in 1913) is the biggest transfer of wealth in the history of mankind - from those that don't have REAL money to those that do.
If everyone bought Gold and Silver, we wouldn't have a centralised economic planning organisation for very long.
Jacking 50% loan out of the 401K and will go on a shiny buying spree. Buying metals on the cheap now and paying the loan back with WORTHLESS FRNs and at a low interest rate, which is next to nothing and winds up in my account. Just need the metal to double and will have all of my equity out of the 401K. No brainer.
Buy and hold. Selling is like playing musical chairs because when the music stops, you won't have an easy time getting the shiny shiny. Preservation of capital and insuring something real for a golden retirement age....
Well.. those of us who saw the drop coming are expecting silver to recover. Mostly because of COT numbers.
I hope it will crash bigtime for a moment so everybody get the chance to buy the remaining stocks on the cheap and empty the vaults in a record time!
Or it goes up... bummer
Or it drops and will be catapuled into the stratosphere!
Congratulations to the boldest definite maybe of the day.
lolololols to youthepeople. Sums it pretty well.
Gaddafi didn't have any silver for the new revolutionary central bank to lease out.
BTFD.
I hate it when that happens.
I'd love to buy more shineys, but I'm thinking that I need to get about...
20 more bricks of .22 LR.
Maybe another device to deliver it with.
A 2nd 3030 Marlin.
More of those brand new factory Ruger 25 round magazines!
.22LR? Going to shoot pigeons?
You need a .45 son. (9mm is just for plinking.) Better plan on fighting your way to a Mossberg 500 or a Remington 870. Bricks of shotgun shells is what you need and on sale soon for Christmas! Ho, Ho, BANG!
Good luck on going after small game with a .45.
Small game are far more plenteous than zombies.
And you can eat the small game.
Zombies? Not so much.
China opens 1st Gold vending machine. Plans 2000 more.
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=137215&sn=Detail
How many people are in China again? They LOVE gold.
Historically they love silver even more.
Yes, and the Chinese silver panda is a beautiful coin, I bought one just to have one.
I see a bright future in fence sitting for this author.....
i had a #8 combo at a chinese diner today and the fortune cookie said my investment will pay off big time and soon. meal and tip totaled $10. how much is this guys newsletter?
My last fortune cookie said: the star of your riches will shine beginning next month . . .so buckle up!
Gold has a down side of around 1580, Silver a little under 30. By June silver will be over 50 and gold over 2000. So it would depend on your time horizon.
How many of you care what value of your change drawer did or didnt today. Same with gold and silver.
Consumer demend for credit is not growing, its falling.
"Are these the shadows of things and will be, or are they the shadows of things that might be, only?
-E.Scrooge.
Wheee!
-- Scrooge McDuck
Every paper move down was part of a fake raid, capped with a mandatory selling order in the form of a margin raise(s). And they all resulted in a massive drainage of physical supply. I am not one bit worried about silver. It has done exactly as I thought it would do since I started buying it...disappear faster and faster. The paper price will be forced to adjust to the supply reality. Bankers silver shorts are in checkmate trying to flip the chessboard over. Oh well. Sucks to have tantrums as your sole weapon. Sales only make the supply situation even tighter.
And if you trade using stops and margin, you deserve to get raped. And you will get raped. This last take down went to exactly just under the May takedown because they were looking for all the stops. This is the headfake before the big one.
I don't understand the talk about gold/silver being useless relics with no use in the real world. Who cares? All that matters is how many people want to buy it and sell it and that it's tradable for cash. I'll trade polished poo if there's a liquid market for it. Real world use is irrelevant if you're a speculator / trader. Just trade.
When I see central banks embarking on a spree of currency devaluation, or extreme volatility eroding confidence in currency, I buy precious metals not just because I think they represent protection of wealth under such circumstances but, more importantly, because I think OTHER people will think that. Conversely, I sell when economic conditions are stable because I think other people will look for more lucrative yield elsewhere, and I sell when extreme credit destruction is on the table because I think other people will be desperate for cash, making cash more lucrative than PMs (which is what's happening in Europe right now).
I don't give a toss whether or not precious metals have a real world use or not. All that matters is the decisions other traders / investors make and how well those decisions can be anticipated for profit.
+1
And regardless, money should have no other use other than being money.
I hope that the FED via JP Morgue and others.. drive the price down to $1 fucking dollar! that way I can buy more!
Survey: UCITS Investors Want CTA Strategies
Oct 24 2011 | 10:36am ET
The market for CTA strategies within the UCITS wrapper is growing, according to a recent survey from ML Capital.
The firm polled 51 investors who together manage €80 billion and invest upwards of €30 billion into Alternative UCITS strategies.
ML Capital says it observed a “dramatic increase in demand for CTAs” with 57% of respondents committed to the sector.
The survey found that the largest increase in allocations were to global macro systematic and CTA strategies, both of which saw demand almost double over the last quarter from 30% of polled investors to almost 60%
http://www.finalternatives.com/node/18513
Europe is DEMANDING exposure to Commodities.. MORE, Gold! and / or other Tangibles.. as a nice basket of risk adjusted for paper (any kind) becoming less and less safe.
Funny,
Silver is not available period in Asia,or China, and the Pac Rims, back ordered out the wazoo, shortages here also, yet the price stays within $3.00+/-, how is that possible, unless the price is RIGGED.
Answer..............RIGGED GAME.
the miners have stopped hedging production..so the banksters have tried to put fear into the PM market of a drop ..to get more miners to sell future production now..how well this is working I do not know.. if the miners have finally decided they set the price not the banks things could get very bullish in PM's..it's not all about retail or the cme.
newmont still says they are not going to hedge. maybe just maybe this is starting to hurt the big banks.
It matters not which way. Margin Hikes will be certain.
If it drifts down, the providers will fatten spot until spot = one ASE before we know it.
Don't believe me? take a look on the Precious Metals Shopping channel near the home shopping one off Satellite. 99 dollars for one ASE.
If it goes up, Paper burns and Bullion roll to those foolish enough to buy in.
However any metals at any price below 1700 and 50 is good enough for me.
I find it amusing that they steal a two ton church copper bell. All that work and for what?
Yep, but margins can only be hiked to 100%. Bring it.
Heck, they stole a steel bridge.
The Confettisburg Address
Threescore and seven years ago (1935) our fathers brought forth on this continent a lesser nation, conceived in
Great Depression and dedicated to the proposition that all men will retire equal.
Now we are engaged in a great monetary war, testing whether that nation or any nation so conceived and so dedicated can long endure.
We are met on a great battlefield of that war. We have come to dedicate a portion of that field as a final resting-place for those who here spent our money so that Wall Street and Washington might live. It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this.
But in a larger sense, we cannot dedicate, we cannot consecrate, we cannot hallow this ground. The honest men, living and dead who struggled here have consecrated it far above our poor power to add or detract.
The Keynesians will little note nor long remember what we say here, but we can never forget what they did here.
It is for us the honorable rather to be dedicated here to vanquish the debt and deficits that they who created here have thus far so nobly advanced.
It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us--that from this bankrupt nation we take increased devotion to that cause for which they denied the last full measure of devotion...
That we here highly resolve that this bankrupt nation shall not have died in vain, that this nation under God shall have a new currency of freedom (gold), and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall return to gold as honest money."
www.lemetropolecafe.com
Every product that uses a battery or has a cord, needs its silver. Every cruise missile has a few kilos in its batteries. As long as people keep chasing the newest toy, and as long as war stalks the earth, silver is going to be in demand.
China needs to build a 21st century world class power-grid. Just think of the tonnage required for that.
All those 90% connectors and lugs, every light switch in China will have its silver plated contacts.
Patience, this can't go on forever. BTFD.
Does anyone know how I can manipulate the PM markets with $5k?
apply for 50 FHA loans of $200k each.
Naked sell a contract for $0 and watch the hilarity ensue.
Easy....
Buy a Savage .338 Lapua with good glass and plenty of AP rounds.
Find a nice spot on a rooftop within 1200 meters of Pennsylvania & K in DC or any other "target rich" urban environment.
Lunch is served.
i went to the theater on friday and paid about $24.0for tickets. I should of paid with $1 morgan dollar. Just imagine 5 years from now ........ $50.00 movie tickets/
You went to the movie theatre and paid $24.???
You ARE a complete fucking idiot!!
short term hope is that there will be some printing then the price of silver will go back to $40+, if there is no printing and stocks plunge, silver and gold will do the same. Than if printing commences then silver and gold will be up to present levels, if printing accelerates at the speed of 09/10 we will see silver going back to $49+
Total worldwide in ground reserves are 400,000 tons according to the US Geological Survey. Annual worldwide production is roughly 20,000 tons. There will be no more silver left to mine in 20 years.
That's all you need to know, folks. It doesn't matter whether the price goes up or down tomorrow. In 20 years it will be priceless.
Not to come across as a silver bear (because I am not, quite the contrary), but your interpretation of the reserve status of silver is completely erroneous and misleading.
What you need to understand, and what so frequently is NOT understood, is that mineral reserves only have relevance at, and are defined by, a given price. As the price of silver goes up, the reserves of silver AUTOMATICALLY rise as well, as formerly uneconomic deposits are now suddenly defined as "reserves" --- and this can happen, and does happen, without ANY new discoveries being made. To make an extreme example, at a high enough price the entire earth would constitute a "reserve" of any given mineral, as there are always some atoms of any given element (OK, maybe not promethium and technetium) distributed in every portion of the earth's crust, no matter how thinly.
This takes nothing away from the fact that the "easy" deposits of silver are always steadily diminishing, of course, and that "peak silver" will one day (perhaps very soon) be a reality.
Yup, same with the "peak oil" bullshit argument. As oil becomes more scarce (with demand remaining the same) prices tend to rise, this makes it economical for oil to be extracted from the ground in deeper wells or in more remote areas because the higher prices makes it profitable. Just like a silver mine can be deemed "tapped out" because extracting the remaining silver from the mine might not be cost effective. We haven't experienced peak oil because we continue to find new oil. So long as silver is in demand and people are willing to pay higher prices, silver mining companies will open up new mines and extract more silver from the ground. I don't know how much silver you can mine in a year, but lets just say you could mine xxx ounces, and then the next year the mine produced 10% less silver, and this continued. There is a certain point where the mine will be tapped out so long as silver demand falls. Anyways, you get my point.
PMs will drop. I am a PM-bug. Eurocrisis will be solved. No collapse, growth returns.
How does growth return when the sovereign debt burdens are so large that they Choke Off the economic oxygen ?!?!
Maybe...........Banks Collapse, Leech Effect Ends, Growth Returns.............................
Ya gotta be wacko to think you can even begin to GUESS what silver is going to do by a chart.
Silver will do what the Non Federal No Reserves lets it do .
Nothing more,nothing less.
It seems they are willing to let it sit around $31.00 for now.
Gold seems to be left alone around $1640 or so.
Ps. FUCK you's Benny and Timmy if you are reading this....
WRONG...if anything gold and silver will trade in a tight upward trend. After a volatile shakeup it takes time for the next bollinger band expansion.
nice directly misleading article once again..zerohedge...
WRONG...if anything gold and silver will trade in a tight upward trend. After a volatile shakeup it takes time for the next bollinger band expansion.
nice directly misleading article once again..zerohedge...
An article is an article. Up to you to do your own thinking.
BussSaw99 got NO gold,Got NO silver.....
Too funny....
SUCKER.
MISSED THE TRAIN DID YA.
The way I look at it, the more that I can manage to "save" of my wage slavery rations and purchase "shiny stackables", the less my significant other can piss away on useless gadgets and stuff.
Be warned, if you put a ring on that finger, and the fiat runs low, if you don't sell, you just might find yourself scrambling to hide the PM so the lawyers can't nab a portion of her half. Unless of course, you give her an allowance and she really really loves you. Not only that, but there are going to be a shit ton of poor guys who once had the money and flashy possessions, you might have to beat hot woman off of you with a stick if they catch wind of your new wealth :p
I say go all in on the underground economies true currency. XANAX!
If this shit keeps up ... Prozac looks like a great hedge.
As if they are not printing right now (digital or paper) ?
OP-EX on metals this Wednesday Biatchezz !
Wait for it.
FMX poster which straddles are you buying at what price ?
there are so many bullish guys here on gold and silver.
take a look http://db.tt/KNwqC0mZ we'll probably return to some normal historic level soon.
Contrary to all the cocksuckers who think this article sucks, I liked the article. The point is to pay close attention; this week will be a turning point.